LETTER TO JOHN N. MCMAHON FROM HERMAN E. ROSER

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R002204180010-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 7, 2011
• Sequence Number: 10
• Publication Date: June 24, 1983
• Content Type: LETTER

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Exs;utive REIgiatcy
77
Qom: DiV y223`?-J3
DD/ 67,c66 -r3-
Department of Energy
Washington, D.C. 20585
JUN 2 4 1983 Th aocumInt nstsU it 6 VrM
No. 1 of 17 Copies, Sede3 A
Honorable John N. McMahon
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
As you requested in your memorandum of 19 May 1983 to the SIG(I) Committee
on Priorities, I have enclosed five National Intelligence Topics (NITS) of
priority concern to the Department of. Energy.
I consider each of the NITs of about equal priority. However$ the NIT
questions on international and subnational terrorist groups have been
placed in Category A.to reflect its importance to our decisions on security
and safeguards policy concerning our nuclear weapons and nuclear power
facilities. Although the occurrence of a nuclear terrorist incident may be
a remote possibility, the consequence, both physically and politically
warrant the increased emphasis and more frequent reporting.
Sincerely,
NATIONAL SECURITY
.INFORMATION
ow
Ad nInisrINw . 1 Cr.rind c.ncMm,
CIS
Senior Intelligence Officer
Hermal E. Roser
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1. What are the prospects for and factors which contribute to decisions either
for or against the development of nuclear energy and weapons by South Africa,
Israel, India, Pakistan, Iraq, Libya, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil and
Argentina?
2. What are the plans and policies of Western European nations, Canada,
Australia and Japan for the development and export of nuclear energy-related
facilities, equipment and materials?
(a) Plans and policies concerning the economic export of enriched uranium
is of particular interest.
(b) What are their views on nonproliferation?
3. What other countries are likely to become potential nuclear weapons states
as the result of cooperation and assistance from advanced nuclear countries?
(a) To what extent is China assisting other states in the peaceful and non-
peaceful uses of nuclear materials?
(b) What is the current and potential role of such secondary suppliers as
Argentina?
4. What is the Soviet performance with respect to planned production goals for
nuclear power?
(a) How effective are Soviet overall energy conservation efforts and its
impact on nuclear goals?
(b) What role will conservation play in Soviet energy development?
SECRET
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Jr-L) t I
TECHNOLOGY PROLIFERATION
1. What are the Soviet and Soviet Bloc plans, policies and strategies for the
acquisition of dual-use and strategically significant technologies from the
West (including Japan)?
2. What energy R&D programs (Soviet Bloc, PRC or Free World) area being used,
or could be used, as a cover for the development of strategic technologies
such as pulsed power systems, directed energy weapon technologies, radar
control systems, etc.?
(a) What is the current and projected status of such systems?
3. What U.S./NATO/Japanese technologies are critical?
(a) What are the critical technological areas of controlled fusion, high
energy physics, magnetohydrodynamics and superconducting, materials
and systems?
(b) Particular attention should be paid to nuclear and directed energy
weapon and weapon systems applications.
What overt and clandestine means, including specific techniques and entities,
are being used to gain access to advanced technology from the U.S.?
(a) How effective have U.S. export controls been in preventing such
transfers?
5. What results are Soviet successes in these areas likely to have on the USSR?s
military and economic capabilities?
SECRETi
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STABILITY OF PERSIAN GULF/SOUTHWEST ASIA REGION
1. What are the prospects for increased instability in the area?
(a) What are the Iranian political and military objectives in Iraq?
Impact of success? Impact of failure?
(b) Is there a good probability that Soviet influence will grow at the
expense of the U.S. influence with. increased tensions?
(c) What is the most likely impact of regional instabilities on oil
production and flow?
(d) Can a regional security grouping and potential host nation support
in the area of the new Southwest Asia Command offset future regional
instabilities?
2. What are the most probable actions and intentions of the major OPEC countries
plus Mexico, Canada and North Sea producers?
(a) Regarding oil production and pricing?
3. Is OPEC likely to take action to maintain constant real oil prices through
1990?
(a) What would be the impact of expanded Iranian and Iraq output?
(b) Is Saudi Arabia likely to act to prevent price erosion?. To what
degree?
4. What are the possibilities of another decline in oil prices?
(a) Impact on OPEC?
5. What factors will have a direct impact on worldwide inventory bids?
SECRET
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SECRET
1. How secure is the Western access to oil and other energy sources?
2. What are the plans and capabilities of advanced countries (for example:
Japan, Canada, Western Europe) to limit economic damage resulting from
energy supply curtailment, particularly oil and coal?
(a) How do these countries assess energy security problems?
(b) What are their specific vulnerabilities to threats or acts of energy
supply curtailment?
3. How are lower price expectations affecting oil exploration and development
plans?
4. What is the potential for future oil production and export by countries to
possess oil assets but are not developing them for export in the international
market?
(a) What financial and other institutional factors would affect bringing
this oil to the marketplace?
(b) How stable a source of oil would these countries be?
SECRET
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uL'JUL.1
1. What international and subnational terrorist groups have a potential to
target personnel and property of the U.S. and its allies?
(a) What are the plans and capabilities of these groups?
(b) Are there lines of cooperation and coordination among these groups?
(c) Do their plans include sabotage of petroleum facilities of the
major oil producing countries?
(d) Is their planned sabotage of domestic and foreign electrical power
facilities and transmission systems.
2. What are the nuclear terrorism capabilities of these groups?
(a) What is the potential for theft of U.S. nuclear weapons from
domestic or overseas stockpile?
(b) Is there a capability to cause a nuclear incident at nuclear power
facilities or other methods of dispersal of nuclear contamination?
(c) Are the Soviets, East Europeans, Cubans and Libyans involved with
these groups? What is the probability of nuclear terrorism support
being extended these nations?
SECRET
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