DOD INPUT TO THE SIG-I NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE TOPICS FOR 1983-1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85M00364R002204180009-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 7, 2011
• Sequence Number: 9
• Publication Date: July 21, 1983
• Content Type: MEMO

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THE DEPUTY SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
21 JUL 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR OF CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE
SUBJECT: DoD Input to the SIG-I National Intelligence Topics for 1983-1984 (U)
(S) The enclosed Department of Defense submission for the National
Intelligence Topics of Current Interest, 1983-1984 is forwarded for considera-
tion by the Senior Interagency Group-Intelligence. Our five primary topics
are:
USSR: Strategic Conflict
USSR/Warsaw Pact-NATO: Conventional War Readiness
USSR: Advanced Technologies
USSR/NATO: Responses to NATO Modernization
USSR: Politico-Economic Impacts on Military Policy
Additionally we have included a sixth topic on "Latin America: Politico-
Military Policy." The Joint Chiefs of Staff have provided you a related
topic on Latin America, but the two are not duplicative. In order to
limit the DoD list to five topics, I suggest the SIG-I consider adding the
DoD proposal on Latin America to what the JCS provided on the Caribbean
Basin.
Attachment
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SECRET
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT INPUT TO NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE TOPICS, 1983-1984
CATEGORY
USSR: Strategic Conflict
1. Extended nuclear conflict
a. Soviet capabilities projected for engagement in extended
nuclear conflict against the US after an initial major exchange
(1) Soviet systems to be held in strategic reserve
(2) Soviet capabilities to sustain enduring C31 facilities,
communications links, etc.
(3) Projections of the deployment locations for mobile
ballistic missiles
(4) Dispersal/Recovery bases outside the USSR
2. Soviet perception of North American offensive/defensive balance
a. Soviet perception/assessment of US strategic offensive posture A
b. Soviet perception/assessment of North American strategic
defensive posture A
c. Soviet perception/assessment of future US ballistic missile
defense BMD capabilities 6
d. Soviet planning for.future strategic policies and capabilities
(1) Potential shifts in plans and strategy for employment of
recallable strategic offensive forces A
(2) Strategy and employment doctrine for wartime use of new
long-range offensive cruise missiles B
3. Soviet intentions in space, both offensive and defensive
a. Shifts in Soviet space policy
b. Soviet space weapons programs
(1) Directed energy weapons
(2) Enhancement of space vehicle survivability
(3) Soviet strategy, doctrine, and capabilities for attacking
critical high-altitude US satellites
.SECRET
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LCI-ILT
USSR/Warsaw Pact/NATO: Conventional
1. Warning time
a. The amount of warning time available to us before commitment
of Soviet conventional combat forces
(1) In Europe
(2) In Southwest Asia
2. Level of hostilities at initiation of conventional conflict
a. Soviet ability to generate and prepare ground forces for
combat
b. Level of Soviet emphasis on early. conventional air operations.
(1) Repair capabilities and limitations
(2) Manpower constraints
(3) Availability of pilots, munitions, fuel, and spare parts A
3. Extent of Soviet biological, toxin, and chemical warfare readiness
a. Extent of Soviet stockpiling against NATO
b. Soviet readiness and doctrine for the employment of bio-
logical/toxin/chemical munitions against NATO
c. Extent, if any, Soviet behavior has been affected by the
international arms control regime
d. Incidents involving use of these weapons elsewhere in the
world (e.g., "yellow rain," etc.)
4. Assessment of NATO and Warsaw Pact ground forces training
(USSR, East Germany, FRG, and UK)
a. Level of personnel experience and average service tenure B
(1) Officers
(2) Non-Commissioned officers
(3) Enlisted
2
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b. Rank/structure and skill levels B
(1) Commanders of given unit sizes
(2) Training experience of unit commanders
c. Degree of combined arms training B
(1) Number and quality of field training exercises
(2) Extent of other field training
(3) Extent of multi-national training
d. Quantity/Quality of Command Post Exercises B
(1) Number
(2) Frequency
(3) Degree of realism
(4) Reliance on simulation
e. Weapons proficiency B
(1) Quantity of standard and sub-caliber firing performed
annually
(2) Degree of realism attained
(3) Number, quality, and frequency of the use of simulators
f. Combat Service Support and logistics
(1) Degree of participation in field and command post training
exercises
(2) Degree of realism and frequency of participation in
training exercises
5. Sustainability of Soviet conventional forces
a. Performance of combat service support units in dealing with
potential combat conditions and workloads
b. Levels of spares or replacements available to support units. B
c. Number of days the Soviets can sustain combat in Europe
and/or Southwest Asia
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6. Soviet intentions in Latin America.
a. Intentions to establish a permanent military presence in the
Caribbean Basin and therefore impact on NATO reinforcement
capability.
b. Soviet perceptions of US willingness/ability to counter Soviet
expansion into the Caribbean.
c. Soviet intentions to enter mutual defense pact with Cuba and
Nicaragua.
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USSR: Advanced Technologies
1. Soviet RDT&E initiatives and potential breakthroughs and their
impact on Soviet policy/doctrine
a. Strategic communications jamming
(1) ELF communications jamming B
(2) Air Force/Navy VLF/LF jamming B
(3) HF Fleet Broadcast jamming B
(4) Ground Wave Emergency Network jamming B
b. Low Observables Technology
(1) Modernization of strategic aerodynamic attack forces.
(2) Tactical and strategic cruise missiles for land-based
targets
(3) Anti-shipping cruise missiles
c. Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems
-d -Directed Energy Systems
(1) Lasers
(2) Charged Particle Beams
(3) Power sources
e. Data Automation Systems
(1) Artificial Intelligence and its impact on Soviet C31 B
(2) Next generation hardware development or acquisition via
technology transfer
(3) Broad use of improved software in military planning and
operations
2. Soviet responses to Western advanced technologies
a. Soviet RDT&E activities in response to US initiatives for
defense against ballistic missiles
(1) Ground based US ballistic missile defense systems B
(2) Space-based US ballistic missile defense systems B
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b. Soviet RDT&E activities responding to US Low-observable
technology
(1) Advanced Technology Bomber
(2) Advanced Cruise Missile
(3) Other
c. Prospects for increased hardening and mobility of the Soviet
target base in response to hard-target-capable MX and D-5
missiles
(1) Mobile ICBM testing/deployment
(2) Mobile C3I.
3. Extent and status of military and space RDT&E programs
a. Systems in full scale development
b. System and subsystem concept studies B
c. Trends and systems in military sponsored technology develop-
ment projects B
d. Trends and asymmetries in military and space RDT&E
(full-scale development systems, development projects
and concept studies) B
e. Prospects for development of space-based weapons to be
employed against terrestrial targets
(1) Manned space stations for surveillance, command and
control, and as weapon platforms
(2) Space-based jammers, including those intended for use
against down-links
(3) Other
f. Programs to enhance Soviet satellite survivability
(1) Physical and electronic hardening
(2) Evasive maneuver
(3) Protection from directed energy weapon systems A
g. Programs to improve anti-satellite capabilities
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USSR/NATO: Responses to NATO Modernization
1. Possibility and impact of a Soviet "analogous response" to
Pershing II/ Ground Launched Cruise Missile (GLCM) deployments in
Western Europe
a. Possibility of further IRBM deployments for targeting NATO A
b. Evidence of development/deployment of a Soviet "neutron
warhead"
c. Carribbean deployment options
d. Periodic ALCM/SLCM deployments A
20 Quality and quantity of Soviet conventional tactical ballistic
missile threat (SS-21, SS-22, SS-23)
a. Terminal guidance
b. Improved Conventional Munitions
c. Consequences for NATO defenses A
3. Soviet intentions for development, deployment and wartime use of
long range cruise missiles
a. Strategy and doctrine for employment
(1) Share of cruise missile assets intended for Soviet inter-
continental forces A
(2) Share intended for theater employment
(3) Doctrine, targeting systems and tactics for long-range
cruise missiles
b. Impact on arms control negotiations B
4. Western Europe's international policies and military capabilities
a. Impact and significance of anti-nuclear movement on NATO's
cohesion, military integrity, and operational strategy A
b. Compatibility of NATO's military objectives versus defense
budget allocations A
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USSR: Politico-Economic Impacts on Military Policy,
1. Extent of any Soviet redirection of defense resources to domestic
needs
a. Areas of defense resource reductions and targets of domestic
spending increases B
b. Degree. of disruption of military production, including specific
weapons systems B
c. Effect of any resource redirection on the planned growth in the
quantity and quality of Soviet Eurasian forces B
2. Evidence of slowing growth in Soviet force projection capabilities
3. Evidence of any changes in Soviet foreign arms sales policies
4. Indications that East Europeans maybe required to assume a larger
responsibility for Warsaw Pact military modernization
5. Soviet dependence on foreign energy sources
a. Projections of the percentage of total Soviet energy require-
ments that will be met with foreign sources .B
b. Capacity and vulnerability of transportation routes and storage
area for Soviet energy imports
(1) inside the USSR
(2) Outside the USSR
c. Effect on Soviet capabilities to wage conventional war, given
curtailment of their foreign supplies of energy B
6. Impact of acquisition of advanced foreign technology or equipment
a. Plans and strategies of the USSR and other Communist countries
to acquire dual-use strategically significant technologies
from the United States, Japan, Western Europe and such sources
as newly industrializing states A
b. Technologies and equipment on which Soviet interest is
primarily focused
c. Overt and clandestine acquisition techniques on which Soviets
are putting particular emphasis
d. Near-term impact of Soviet success in acquiring foreign tech-
nologies and equipment on critical military and economic
capabilities
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ADDITIONAL (SIXTH) TOPIC
Politico-Military Policy
CATEGORY
1. Prospects for non-Communist alternatives for social and economic
development in Latin America
a. Entities favoring economic reform, democratic institutions,
long-term stability, and US policy in the region
(1) Key personalities
(2) Politico-Military organizations
(3) Institutions
(4) Media
b. Entities that support Soviet and Cuban operations, objectives,
and policies in the region
(1) Key personalities
(2) Politico-Military organizations
(3) Institutions
(4) Media
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