SOVIET ROAD TO HEIGHTENED INFLUENCE IN MIDDLE EAST RUNS THROUGH SYRIA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000707060005-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 19, 2011
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: May 11, 1987
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP90-00965R000707060005-0
r ARTICLE APPEARED WALL STREET JOURNAL
ON?A AA 11 May 1987
.ri
Soviet Road to Heightened Influence
In Middle East Runs Through Syria
WASHINGTON
Maniff
I By JoHN WALCp9'r
StOffReporter of Tes WALL STIIStT JOURNAL
WASHINGTON-Syria is emerging as
the Soviet Union's gateway to Middle East-
ern diplomacy.
The Soviets are pressuring Syrian Pres.
ident Hafez al-Assad, their best client in
the region, to maneuver his country back
into the mainstream of Middle Eastern pol-
itics. Reagan administration officials be-
lieve that Soviet leader Mikhail Gorba-
chev's.goal is to ensure that no new peace
initiative gets off the ground without Soviet
and Syrian help. Some officials also be-
lieve the Soviets are trying to capitalize on
recent American blunders, including secret
arms sales to Iran, in order to steal a
march on the U.S. in the Middle East.
In the past, the tough, independent Mr.
Assail has tended to spoil rather than pro-
mote peace deals. But right now he may
need to cooperate with Moscow as much as
the Kremlin needs a reliable ally in the re-
gion. Syria's economy-and Mr. Assad's
influence-have been weakened by Syria's
efforts to exert greater influence over Leb-
anon.
Mr. Gorbachev also is moving on other
diplomatic fronts. He has taken modest
steps to improve relations with Israel and
with moderate Arab states such as Kuwait
and Egypt. And Moscow is promoting the
reunification of the Palestine Liberation
cording to one witness, Mr. Assad didn't
blink, but he apparently got the mes-
sage.
Although Mr. Assad has worked tire-
lessly to divide and conquer the PLO, a
joint communique issued following the Syr-
ian president's Soviet trip endorsed the
goal of Palestinian unity. And following a
PLO reunification meeting in Algiers last
month, George Habash, the leader of the
renegade Popular Front for the Liberation
of Palestine, returned to Damascus after
publicly abandoning a Syrian-sponsored
anti-Arafat coalition. Rumors now are
spreading that one or two of Mr. Arafat's
top aides may travel to the Syrian capital
soon for a meeting with Mr. Assad.
Secret Meeting
Some U.S. intell1genc pfff i is also -
lieve Mcow en o r oar M* As- ?I_n
meet secretly last month with vet another
arch ya . Iran ent 5:'m Hus
in even thou h ria r e tly began sewing resumed shipments of free 0111-M
Iraa'
Conventional wisdom has it that Mr. As-
sad suffered a major setback when the
breakaway PLO factions he backed agreed
to return to Mr. Arafat's side, at least for
the time being. But the Syrians may yet
emerge as the dominant power over a reu-
nified PLO.
The Soviets may be betting that a more-
moderate Syria can become the Arabs'
principal spokesman in any dealin with
.
ea
y, reports from Damascus
Organization and a rapprochement be- say Jordan and Syria have agreed on a for-
tween Mr. Assad and a bitter enemy, PLO mula for a new United Nations-sponsored
leader Yasser Arafat. Mid cre-
Israel
Alr
d
.11.. Dutwtess U.S. Lacks Leverage
There's nothing new, of course, about Even if it manages to shake off the
Soviet efforts to corner Arab support in the Iran-Contra debacle, the Reagan adminis-
Middle East. What's new is the boldness tration may find it difficult to counter Mr.
and ingenuity of a Soviet campaign that in- Gorbachev's moves. The U.S. has virtually
cludes simultaneous overtures toward no leverage on Syria, and Secretary of
Syria, Iraq, Israel, Egypt and assorted fac- State George Shultz has been hostile to Mr.
tions of the PLO. By attempting to rec- Assad since the Syrians began supporting
oncile some of these bitter enemies, Mr. terrorist attacks on Americans and
Gorbachev is seeking to establish himself wrecked an agreement he negotiated for
as the unlikely heir to Henry Kissinger and the withdrawal of foreign troops from Leb-
Anwar Sadat as the region's preeminent anon.
deal maker. Even the simplest steps to repair rela-
Syria is the key to his efforts. When Mr. tions between Washington and Damascus
Assad visited Moscow late last month, the aren't easy. The U.S. withdrew Ambassa-
pressure on him was palpable. The Soviets dor William Eagleton after Syria was
pointedly offered to keep Syria supplied caught sponsoring a plot to blow up an
with "defensive" arms, and Mr. Gorba- Israeli airliner with more than 200 Ameri-
chev noted at a dinner in the Syrian presi- cans on it at London's Heathrow Airport. A
dent's honor that the absence of diplomatic top Central Intelligence Agency analyst is
relations between the Soviet Union and Is- arguing that Mr. Assad recently has
rael "cannot be considered normal." Ac- curbed his support for the notorious terror-
STAT
1st Abu Nidal, but the administration can't
very well restore full diplomatic relations
with Syria before Britain does.
Finally, political conditions in Israel
may checkmate any American attempt to
revive direct negotiations between the Is-
raelis and their neighbors. Unless the Is-
raeli Labor and Likud parties can agree on
a strategy for negotiations with the Arabs,
which seems unlikely, or Labor can win
enough seats in a new election to act uni-
laterally, which also seems improbable,
there isn't much Washington can do to
block Mr. Gorbachev's Syrian gambit.
STAT
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/19: CIA-RDP90-00965R000707060005-0