ARGENTINA TIGHTROPE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000706950073-8
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 73
• Publication Date: April 7, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/12/21 :CIA-RDP90-009658000706950073-8
A.Q. I G:..$ L~~
GN PAGL~
,Iach Anderson
And Dale van Atta
Argentine
Tightrope
The key to democratu re~wal in Latin
America may be held by Raul Alfonsin. the
civilian president of Argentina, who has been
able to stand up to the army and yet stay in of-
fice without a military coup.
The ouster of the Argentine military dicta-
torship in 1983 was followed by a return to
democratic rule in neighboring Brazi] and Uru-
guay. But unfortunately, Argentina's status as
a democratic trend-setter is endangered by its
precarious finances. ~Ifonsin inherited an econ-
otny on the edge of ruin; he is now forced to
build his career on the multiplication of debts.
He has mastered the practical art of politics
and has become the embodiment of the general
will in Argentina. The people see in him a leader
who can bring about the regeneration of their
country.
Yet he is hobbled by vulnerabilities inherited
from past military rulers. With a treasury
barely kept afloat by alms cadged from other
nations and an army unaccustomed to taking
orders from a civilian, he has to lead not from
strength but by political sleight-of-hand, crowd-
enrapturing orations and alliances with irrecon-
ciliable interests. '
..Somehow he has to sustain a momentum of
hope-an atmosphere of business booming, of
workers working, of opportunity stirring. He
cannot make it economically without massive
aid. This will require sacrifices, in return, from
the people. Yet he cannot make it poetically un-
less he improves their standard of living. This
leaves him on a tightrope, simultaneously need-
}ng the applause of the populace and the ap-
proval of Argentina's creditors.
We had a private meeting with Alfonsin dur-
ing his recent visit to Washington and found
him" affable, articulate and unafraid of tough
questions. Asked about the new wave of
democracy that started in Argentina, Alfonsin
disdlaimed credit. "We do not attribute it to
ourselves," he said. "What ~ has happened is
that the experience of the totalitarian govern-
ments has been tragic, and the people have re-
acted against that. It is a great hope for Latin
America."
6i'hat about the danger of a militan? coup
during ttus period of rampant inflation and gen-
eral economic turmoil in Argentina? "There is
no such danger," Alfonsin said firmly. "I'm
convinced that we have inaugurated a demo-
cratic epoch for Argentina."
For the record, of course, the Argentine
president cannot admit any doubts. But pri-
vately, we were told, he is concerned about a
military command that hasn't hesitated in the
past to overthrow the government at gunpoint.
Other civilians have been elected to power in
Argentina, but few have been allowed to stay
for long. "The next four months," said a senior
official, "are going to be the hardest."
As a ci~?il rights lawyer who embarrassed the
nulitary juntas for years, Alfonsin promised to
bring to justice those responsible for the "dirty
war" against suspected leftists. That's exactly
what is about to happen. Top members of the
last three military juntas will soon come to trial
for their part in the "dirty war."
The bi ouestion is: Wil] the army stand for
thin ccor to our inteW ence sources Al-
'; onsin may actually have prevented a military
coup by his determination to prosecute the al-
~eQed criminals.
'Most military officers are willing to accept
the top echelon being punished," one U.S. ana-
lyst told our associate Michael Binstein: But he
added this caveat: "They're more worried that
Alfonsin might go down into the ranks" in the
search for war criminals.
If the Argentine courts were to pursue the
smell fry who were following orders, it would
decimate the armed services as an institution.
And before that process ?ot very far. the mie-
tarv wotild ratite in self-defense and seize
power again, the intelligence analyst predicted.
The military's strongest political weapon
against Alfonsin, meanwhile, is Argentina's
$45 billion debt and the economic problems
that, prevent paying it. Never mind that the
debcwas run up by the military juntas.
? - " [The military] takes advantage of the prob-
lerXt of the debt, the problem of agriculture and
the falling of salaries," explained the senior Ar-
gentine official.
The only way Argentina can pay off the debt,
Alfonsin told us, is through increased exports.
But the country's chief export is agricultural
products, and these markets are being closed
all over the world. '
The United States has not hesitated to sup-
port military dictatorships, oil monarchies,
even radical, anti-Western regimes when it has
seemed in the national interest to do so. It will
be interesting to see how far the great thinkers
and planners in Washington will go to support a
fragile democracy that could set an example for
all Latin America,
Declassified and Approved For Release 2011/12/21 :CIA-RDP90-009658000706950073-8