NSPG MEETING ON ANGOLA AND MONS ON ANGOLA AND CHAD 25 SEPTEMBER 1987, 1400 HOURS, WHITE HOUSE SITUATION ROOM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 30, 2011
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: September 25, 1987
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Iq
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
26 September 1987
TALKING POINTS FOR THE DDCI
ANGOLA
The Angolan government is engaged in a major seasonal
offensive aimed at UNITA-held territory in southeastern
Angola. The Army was making some progress toward its main
objective at Mavinga until checked last week with the help
of direct South African military intervention. Luanda
probably is seeking a battlefield victory to complement
political and economic initiatives intended to isolate UNITA
from its outside support and shore up Angola's faltering
economy.
Military Situation
Luanda's two-front offensive against UNITA strongholds
in the southeast--which began in early July--appears to have
been stalled by recent South African intervention and
increased insurgent resistance.
On the Cuito Cuanavale Front
South Africa has recently conducted airstrikes
against forward Angolan units advancing toward Mavinga and
that insurgent attacks have checked the
advance, exacting substantial casualties and material loss.
South African infantry and
artillery in the Mavinga area, and about 50 combat
25X1
25X1
SE/RET I 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
SECRET
aircraft remain at bases across the border in Namibia.
On the Lucusse Front, government forces remain in positions
captured in early August, according to insurgent reporting
-- UNITA attacks appear to have disrupted government
resupply efforts.
strategy has been to allow for the
maximum extension of government supply lines and for Angolan
units to enter more open terrain.
-- UNITA forces had counted on guerrilla tactics to
slow the government advance, but now appear to have
undertaken larger scale, joint operations with South
Africa in order to prevent Mavinga from falling.
Luanda undoubtedly anticipated South African intervention
when planning this year's offensive and will probably
resupply and reinforce before attempting further advances.
-- Pretoria's decision to risk irreplaceable air assets
in attacks against Angolan forces indicates that its is
probably willing to commit whatever forces are
necessary to defend UNITA's stronghold.
-- To cover its next-push, Angola probably will require
air cover by Cuban-flown aircraft, risking an
escalation of the conflict.
Deteriorating Economy
25X1
25X1
SECRET 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Angolan officials are increasingly concerned that
deteriorating living conditions hurt the government's
ability to win popular support and could even provoke
domestic unrest.
-- A foreign exchange shortfall has induced Luanda to
cut food imports, causing severe shortages of basic
goods.
The economic crunch, caused by reduced oil revenues and the
high costs of fighting the UNITA insurgency, have induced
Angolan to seek increased aid and investment from the West,
despite heavy reliance on Soviet and Cuban military support.
-- Oil earnings--the mainstay of the economy--continue
to lag behind record 1985 levels because of reduced
world oil prices.
-- Attacks by UNITA on coffee and diamond producers and
transportation links have cut other export earnings.
As a way out, Luanda has outlined an economic reform program
and has intensified efforts to win increased aid and
investment from Western countries.
-- It has acquired easier repayment terms and new
credits--including more than $900 million for oil
exploration--from Western institutions. It plans to
apply for IMF membership and has shaped its economic
reform program in accord with IMF criteria.
SECRET 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
SECRET
-- President dos Santos is in the middle of a two-week
swing through France, Belgium, Italy, and Portugal
seeking additional financial assistance.
The Soviet Union has sheltered the military security of the
government from the economic decline.
-- Military deliveries of about $1 billion last year
are continuing at high levels this year.
-- Luanda has also received a three-year repayment
moratorium on its $3.3 billion debt to the USSR.
Despite the belt-tightening and foreign assistance,
continued foreign exchange shortfalls, UNITA attacks, and
management deficiencies rule out chances for an economic
rebound anytime soon.
Negotiations on Cuban Troop Withdrawal
Luanda views participation in US-brokered negotiations
linking a Cuban troop withdrawal to UN-sanctioned
independence for Namibia as a way of isolating UNITA from
outside support. Progress in the long-running negotiations
has been slow because Luanda feared departure of its Cuban
backup would threaten the security of its regime.
-- Luanda's recent offer of flexibility was intended to
get the negotiations back on track. Angola proposed to
withdraw 20,000 troops in the southern part of the
country in two years instead of three. The government
also called for Cuban inclusion in the negotiations--
probably Havana's price for going along.
25X1
25X1
SECRET 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
SECRE
-- Luanda has said, however, that this is not a final
offer and that it is willing to consider further
concessions, including withdrawal of the approximately
15,000 Cuban military personnel in the northern part of
the country.
Political Control
After several years of adroit political manipulation,
President dos Santos appears to be firmly in charge of the
government and party. Political rivals and proponents of
more extreme positions have been exiled or demoted to less
sensitive positions.
-- Dos-Santos instituted an overhaul of the party
leadership in 1985 and recently has been replacing
ministerial-level government officials with more
competent loyalists.
-- The President has also taken charge of the economic
reform campaign and is closely associated with Luanda's
military strategy and decision to reenergize the
negotiations with the US.
SECRET 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 50X1-HUM
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Angolan Military Developments
Menongue'
Cuito
Cuanavale
Zaire
Zambia
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 50X1-HUM
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Next 6 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 50X1-HUM
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Next 5 Page(s) In Document Denied
Iq
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5 25X1
Angolan Developments
Volume 1,. Number.37
Reporting Period: 9 = 16 September 1987
Summary
that a decisive battle for Mavinga will
be waged by the end of the month. Positions of government units
remain relatively _u hanaed since last week, how ever robably as
they await resupply .
Military Activity
Cuito Cuanavale Front: UNITA officials believe that a decisive
engagement will be fought before the end of the month that will
either turn back the government advance or result in the loss of
Maving Although UNITA's
overall strategy of attacking extended government logistic lines
with guerrilla units will continue, UNITA is preparing for a
large-scale conventional engagement.
government units along the Cuito Cuanavale Front have
advanced to the point where further movement will have to be over
open terrain. UNITA has been waiting for Angolan armored and
mechanized elements to depart areas of thick brush so they could
engage them from longer range with artillery and antiarmor
weapons.
South Africa bolstered UNITA's artillery assets in the area by
transporting eight "Valkiri" multiple rocket launchers and 1,600
rounds of ammunition to UNITA forces at Mavinga on 29 August,
according to a fairly reliable source. The weapons--to be crewed
by South African personnel--were immediately deployed
insurgent defensive positions along the Lomba River.
Government combat groups have generally maintained their
positions since last week, apparently awaiting resupply,
Although the Cuito Cuanavale
bridge does not yet appear to have been repaired
a column of over 100 vehicles has been ferried across
the river and is now approximately 30 miles east of Cuito
Cuanavale. The convoy will probably resupply forward Angolan
combat groups in preparation for further advances towards
Mavinga.
On 4 September, a UNITA Stinger missile downed an Angolan MiG-23
near Mavinga, according to UNITA officials. The aircraft was one
of six aircraft involved in a bombing run on the logistical base
at Mavinga.
1
TOP SECRET
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
2.5X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5 25X1
Lucusse Front:I Ithat the situation on the
the Lucusse Front has stabilized and that they do not anticipate
further advances beyond current government positions at Cassamba
and Luvuei for the time being.
insurgent forces,have launched frequent and effective-
attacks against government command posts and supply columns in
the area, probably accounting for the stalled advance on this
front. that as the rainy season begins,
the rivers between Calapo and government positions will become
too swollen to be crossed by tactical-bridging equipment, and
that these units probably will have to retreat back across the
Lungue-Bungo River to avoid being cut off.
Northern Provinces: Pretoria is continuing its logistics support
to UNITA in the north. In early August, a South African C-130
transported 15 tons of materiel and 30 insurgent troops from
Jamba to Kinshasa for infiltration to Cabinda and other northern
Angolan provinces
that on 27 August, a Soout h
African Defense Force successfully air-dropped supplies to
it forces in Lunda Sul Province.
two South African C-160 transports each dropped ten
tons of supplies, consisting of small arms ammunition,
explosives, and antipersonnel mines. All of the supplies were
recovered safely by UNITA on the ground.
South Africa and Namibia: South African forces are being
strengthened in northern Namibia and along the southeastern
border area in case the are d to rt UNITA
ou
African units will-,-intervene only on a au on esident
Botha who will make.his determination based on developments as
they unfold. No decision to enter the conflict had been made as
of late August because UNITA's military position appeared sound
and did not require conventional SADF assistance.
South African air strength in Namibia remains high.
16 fighter and 17 ground attack
aircraft at airfields near the Angolan border, and 9 fighters,
three Canberra reconnaissance-bombers, and four Buccaneer strike
aircraft deployed to Grootfontein.
Highlights
Offensive Strains Logistic System: A Western air cargo company
chartered by the Angolan government is flying aviation fuel to
Mennnrni to sunolement Soviet transports
Ithe company
flew similar missions until the end ot wnen the Soviets took
over full responsibility, but resumed operations in mid-June.
The company is flying two L-100 and one DC-8 transport and the
crews--many of whom are US citizens--are flying extra runs due to
2
TOP SECRET
25X1
25X1
25X11
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
'25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
pilot shortage. I (that the Soviets could not,
provide sufficient fuel on their own because.the Soviets can only
haul 12,000 liters of - T.-I-90 can
carry 20,000 liters. Soviet
air transport activity has also increased, an almost 60-percent
of the 150 Soviet-flown AN-12 and IL-76 cargo flights in Angola
during the second half of August were flown to Menongue and Cuito
Cuanavale. Moreover, Soviet advisers in early August took charge
of unloading operations at Cuito Cuanavale after expressing
dissatisfaction with the Angolan force's lack organization.
Comment: Despite a major effort to build up the stocks in
Menongue and Cuito Cuanavale over the last two years, the demands
of a five-brigade offensive apparently are straining the existing
logistics system. The decision to hire a Western air charter
company indicates that the major road convoys and Soviet air
transports are unable at the same time to meet daily requirements
in the southeast and routine needs elsewhere in the country.
indicates
that many units not directly involved in the offensive are short
of food and fuel, indicating that the southeast has the priority.
Other Developments
South African Navy conducting sea trials on prototypes of a
remote-radio-controlled torpedo for special operations use,
. designed to be transported by
three-man?comman o teams, launched from shore, in close proximity
to harbor. . . if testing is successful weapon will be used
against ships in Angolan harbors.
Average prices for Angola's 51 percent share of oil exported from
Cabinda increased to $17.18 a barrel during the second quarter of
1987. . .up nearly one-third from prices six months earlier,
.total production from
all Angolan fields increased to 311,000 b/d in August compared
with an average of 280,000 b/d in 1986. . .will increase oil
exports from $1.3 billion in 1986 to roughly $1.8 billion in 1987
if upward trend continues.
Brazilian middleman arranging purchase by Angola of 10 used C-130
transports in the US
. falsified certificates to show Portugal and Ecuador as end
users. . . Luanda has been seeking C-130s for years and prepared
to pay up to $100 million to bolster its airlift capacity.
Angolan AAA gunners shot down civilian
helicopter and Angolan military helicopter flying near Cabinda
oil terminal in June. . . this month shot at, but missed, aircraft
carrvincr i1S Cnnarpgai nnal dP1 Pcratinn to Cahi nda
3
TOP SECRET
25X1
25X1
2.5X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5 25X1
extremely sensitive about security in oil producing center and,
nervous gunners apparently more than willing shoot first.and ask
questions later.
4
TOP SECRET
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
 25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5
Angolan Developments 9-16 September 1987
LUANDA
Smith
Itlarrhr
( )rc"a n
-1-i Ir,a
i,ei
'nyue'I,' F
Malanji
ucusse
L.ICUSSeI
Front Calapo
fat .e~otia~
hvuei
1,' f,~ ?eaintains~, .
i Province
~'Successfu/ South Africen, ZiiMt
A n g o a~ air drop to UNITA f
Luena
uahanyo L
Lunda Sul
1}Yf/:
Soviet advisors take control
of cargo unloading \.G`tutc
{, ti4navakelc
4"_6. ue runt
Cuito Cuanavalelh j
FAPLA pushing deeper k
into UNITA-held area
UNITA downs
ngolon MIG-23
UNITA receives rocket
launchers and ammunition
from South Africa
c n?w....w wniw.H.~l.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/11/30: CIA-RDP89B00224R000501760003-5