THE PLO DEAD OR ALIVE?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000604920005-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 4, 2012
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: October 17, 1985
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

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Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/04 :CIA-RDP90-009658000604920005-9
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WASHINGTON TIMES
17 October 19&5
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~~~.
By Don McLeod
and Deborah Papier
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
Parading through the United
Nations with his empty gun holster
on display, beaming through his
whiskers in meetings with leaders of
the Western world as well as of the
Arab community, Yasser Arafat dur-
ing the 1970s seemed a genuinely.
historic figure.
He had achieved the nearly
impossible goal of converting an out-
law terrorist organization into the
internationally recognized
government-in-exile of a state that
did not even exist.
The movement he headed -the
Palestine Liberation Organization -
had succeeded in gaining recogni-
tion as the sole credible voice of the
stateless Palestinian people. .
In the West, only the United States
and Israel refused to deal with the
Soviet-allied organization that had ='
as its stated purpose not only the
creation of a Palestinian state. but
the destruction of Israel.
The promised land seemed within
Mr. Arafat's reach; the destruction
of Israel would have to wait.
But now the Middle East drama
seems to have taken a new twist, and
given Mt: Arafat a very new role.
on the ropes for three years, and he
looks bad;' says another source.
Abraham Foxman, associate
national director of the Anti-
Defamation League of B'nai B'rith,
believes the PLO basically has been
"in decline since 1982:' Since the
war in Lebanon, in which Israeli
forces destroyed the PLO's power
position there and forced the organ-
ization to disperse around the Arab
world, he says, "it has lost its operat-
ing base and had to scatter its
sources and resources. Since '82
there is more splintering, there isn't
the central control. Arafat doesn't
have a place where he can feed them
and house them and -provide for
them: '
Zedhi Terzi, the PLO's delegate at
the United Nations, concedes that
the 1982 defeat "did weaken our mili-
tarywing. We have our forces spread
all over the Arab world, which I
think is a weakening of our armed
apparatus. Deployment becomes
more difficult:'
Most everyone warns against
writing Arafat off too soon, however.
"He has had 19 lives;' says one
observer. So has the PLO itself, met-
amorphosing from an arm of the
anti-Israeli cause of onetime Egyp-
tianleader Gamal Abdel Nasser, to a
Driven from his military stronghold potttical arbiter of a fractured Leba-
in Lebanon, standing in the rubble of non, and now again a scattered ter-
the "Ilmisian camp that was his head- rorist organization. Says Terzi: "I
quarters until it was bombed by think we're still doing fine; we sur-
Israeli jet fighters, and reeling from wive:'
the botched hijacking of the Italian But there is a telltale character to
cruise ship Achille Lauro, Mr. Arafat recent PLO terrorist acts: a distinct
has diminished steadily. trace of angst, an uncharacteristic
His leadership is under attack ineptitude of operation, the absence
from within and without his organ- of clearly defined goals or intent -
ization. Even if he survives, some and a high failure rate. Other than a
say he soon lead a movement without senseless murder, the hijacking of
hope or relevance. the Achille Lauro accomplished
"Arafat is now more dependent nothing more for the pirates than a
than ever on his friends and more. global media blitz that made them
vulnerable to' his enemies;' says a
Middle East analyst. 'Arafat's been I look more incompetent than intimi-
dating -that is, to all but ,Leon
Klinghoffer, the 69-year-old
wheelchair-bound Manhattanite
killed at least in part because he was
a Jew Initially, there were the usual
demands that imprisoned terrorists
be freed, but in the end this gang
appeared interested only in getting
away whole -and they failed even
at that.
The real impact of this episode
was that it flashed the image of a
dangerously dormant PLO across
the world. Although it may be some
time before the true details are
known, indications were that public-
ity may have beer. the hijacking's
only result.
Tb reach that conclusion, analysts
look at the position of Arafat,
perched in a blasted camp in Tltnis
with a handful of bodyguards and an
administrative cadre, commanding
a distant and scattered army devoid
of effective armament, and removed
by more than 1,400 miles from his
nemesis Israel. He was swept from
Lebanon three years ago, his shame
i compounded by his getaway on
ships loaned by the hated Ameri-
cans. His Arab brothers scarcely
lifted a hand to help when Israeli
forces prepared to annihilate his bat-
tered army. The Lebanon debacle
robbed Arafat of his last facility for
direct military action against Israel.
It reduced his options, and it made
pursuing new ones dangerous. In
old-fashioned Western slang, Yasser
Arafat is between a rock and a hard
spot. He is a man of impressive
assets but shrinking prospects.
"What Arafat has is the support of
the great majority. of [the 4.5 mil-
lion]Palestinians," says one congres-
sional source. Other observers point
to the strength Arafat derives from
being the one recognized and stable
leader in the whole movement.
The PLO is actually an umbrella
organization composed of at least
eight main groups -chief among
them Arafat's al-Fatah, with 10,000
to 15,000 fedayeen (fighters) -and
numerous factions. The splintering
has become especially frequent
since the defeat in Lebanon. Syrian
President Hafez al-Assad, Arafat's
onetime ally, has waged a war for
control of the PLO, hoping to fold in
PLO strength with his rapidly mod-
ernizingand powerful armed forces.
Says Terzi; considered Arafat's
man: "[The defeat in Lebanon] was
followed by that the Syrian govern-
ment was directly involved, of try-
ing to destroy us from within:' Terzi
mentions Syrian-backed attacks on
pro-Arafat refugee camps in Beirui
this year: "They [pro-Syrian Pales-
tinians] resorted to the use of their
artillery against their own people:'
Other groups report to the Iraqis
and the Libyans. 'IWo Marxist units
- the Popular Front for the Liber-
Declassified in Part -Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/05/04 :CIA-RDP90-009658000604920005-9