NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 23 OCTOBER 1980

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82T00466R000500020094-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 26, 2012
• Sequence Number: 94
• Publication Date: October 23, 1980
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of 1 op Secret
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
23 October 1980
Top Secret
23 October 1980
I copy 2
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western Europe: Attitudes Toward the Iraq-Iran War . . . 13
Situation Reports
Iraq-Iran . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Poland . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Briefs and Comments
USSR: Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Israel-Lebanon: Airstrikes on Palestinian Bases. . . . . 8
South Africa - Angola: Raid on SWAPO Camp. . . . . . . . 8
Special Analyses
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Saudi
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remains unchanged.
SITUATION REPORTS
IRAQ-IRAN
Fighting continues in Khuzestan, but the position of both sides
Iraqi forces attacked the Khorramshahr bridge
yesterday. There is no authoritative report on the out-
come, but some Western media accounts state that the
Iraqis now control the bridge.
Prospects for Mediation
present proposals favorable to Iran.
Substantive progress to mediate the conflict still
seems a long way off despite the efforts of several groups.
The Nonaligned Movement's Coordinating Bureau on Tuesday
accepted the proposal of the Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion to form a mediation committee that would be sent to
Iran and Iraq on a "fact-finding and goodwill" mission.
The PLO will now initiate contacts with the two countries
to seek their agreement on the committee's composition.
Baghdad evidently is reluctant to use the Nonaligned Move-
ment because it fears that the PLO and the Cubans will
Iran seems to prefer mediation by the UN, apparently
believing the Security Council offers the best chance to
obtain a clear condemnation of Iraqi aggression.
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Top Secret
Iraq and the Exiles
Former Prime Minister Bakhtiar said publicly this
week that he is preparing to form a government-in-exile
and that he is willing to collaborate with Iraq to brin
sensus on the hostage issue.
The Hostages
Speaker Rafsanjani said yesterday that the Islamic
Assembly's special hostage commission will present its
conclusions to the entire Assembly on Sunday rather than
today as originally scheduled. Several leading hardline
clerics have been unusually outgoing in recent days in
suggesting that an end to the crisis is near. The post-
ponement in the Assembly's debate suggests, however, that
there continues to be some difficulty in forging a con-
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Prospects for the official registration of the free trade
union Solidarity remain unclear. Some Solidarity leaders will meet
this evening to discuss tactics, and lawyers for the union will pre-
sent their case to the Warsaw Court tomorrow.
A delegation from Solidarity met yesterday with the
government's chief press spokesman in an apparently un-
successful effort to gain greater access to the media.
The talks are continuing.
on Sunday and appeared to give his support.
union leaders, for whom Wyszynski held a private mass
Cardinal Wyszynski, head of the Polish Catholic
Church, met with party leader Kania for the first time
on Tuesday. The Cardinal probably urged that compromise
solutions be found to Poland's difficult problems. Kania
may have encouraged the Cardinal to urge restraint on
Soviet Concern
Senior Soviet Politburo member Kirilenko arrived
unexpectedly in Prague yesterday. He reportedly has been
involved in formulating day-to-day policy on Poland, and
he may be in Prague to coordinate on Polish developments.
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Top Secret
Economic planning chief Baybakov's speech to the Supreme Soviet
yesterday portrayed an austere beginning for the 1981-85 plan; the
likelihood of severe shortages of meat may lead to an increase in
year.
The plan goals for 1981 given by Baybakov reflect
the resource strains building over the past five years
and suggest that the 1981-85 plan will contain some of
the lowest growth goals in the Soviet history. Indus-
trial output is slated to grow by only 4.1 percent next
year--the smallest increase ever planned for this sector.
Capital investment--after increasing by less than 3 per-
cent in 1980--is planned to rise by 4.5 percent in 1981,
while real per capita incomes are scheduled to be up
2.9 percent after a reported 3 percent increase this
plete, both speeches are based on preliminary data.
Baybakov's announcement of a disastrous grain
harvest this year, coupled with poor prospects for
other major crops, undercuts President Brezhnev's at-
tempt on Tuesday to describe a future in which the con-
sumers' position would be significantly improved. Accord-
ing to Baybakov, grain production during 1980 would amount
to roughly 180 million tons. Brezhnev's earlier statement
to the Central Committee could imply a crop as low as
164 million tons. Since the grain harvest is not yet com-
throughout the crop season were not fully accounted for.
Subsequent adjustments could shift total grain pro-
duction by several million tons. If the final accounting
indicates a crop of 180 million tons, it would mean the
grain area abandoned was even higher than anticipated
and that, in calculating grain yields for the European
USSR, the effects of the abnormally wet conditions
The poor grain crop, coupled with lower supplies
of nongrain feedstuffs, will jeopardize the livestock
program, which impacts directly on consumer welfare. For
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a variety of reasons, Moscow probably will be unable to
import more than about 28 to 30 million tons of grain
from July 1980 through June 1981--about the same as last
year. Since grain stocks are lower this year than last,
the Soviets do not have much of a cushion.
If the final crop is indeed 180 million tons, meat
supplies next year will fall substantially, perhaps as
much as 10 percent. Distress slaughtering this fall,
while softening the immediate impact, will delay recovery.
In either case, meat shortages will be serious during the
next 18 months even if meat imports rise.
In his address, Brezhnev for the first time also
called upon the defense industrial research and develop-
ment community to assist in the development of increas-
ingly effective, higher quality products in the civil
machine-building sector. His statement is consistent
with previous indications that the leadership wants to
encourage the use of military-originated technology
across an important range of civilian R&D activities.
Brezhnev's speech probably does not signal any shift
in the longstanding priority accorded the defense sector
or imply a significant transfer of resources to the
civilian sector. The Soviets are committed to expanding
their defense effort at least through the mid-1980s.
Although Brezhnev's statement does signify that the
leadership wants to employ its military R&D talent and
management techniques on civilian problems, the integra-
tion of technology into the production process and the
application of management control techniques require
substantial leadtime before their impact on the economy
becomes significant.
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Israeli aircraft struck Palestinian targets between
Ad Damur and Beirut yesterday afternoon in the second
Israeli action against guerrilla bases in the last week.
Prime Minister Begin reiterated Tel Aviv's policy of
taking the initiative against the Palestinians to prevent
possible guerrilla raids. The airstrike is the fourth
Israeli attack into southern Lebanon since mid-August,
when more than 200 troops supported by fighter aircraft
conducted a major raid into the Nabatiyah sector. Tel
Aviv believes the pace of its military activity over
the past seven months has kept the guerrillas on the
defensive, and such raids are likely to continue. The
Israelis do not usually attack as far north as Ad Damur,
however, and more airstrikes close to Beirut may compel
Damascus to order Syrian aircraft to challenge Israeli
fighters again.
SOUTH AFRICA - ANGOLA: Raid on SWAPO Camp
South African forces raided a guerrilla camp of the
South-West Africa People's Organization in Angola on
Monday despite the arrival of a UN mission in Pretoria
to resume talks on Namibian independence.
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WESTERN EUROPE: Attitudes Toward the Iran-Iraq War
The West Europeans, acutely aware of their economic vulner-
ability, are becoming more eager to avoid identification with either
Iran or Iraq as hope for an early end to the war recedes. They will
become increasingly concerned about the possibility of a wider war,
greater Soviet involvement, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If free passage in the Strait were threatened, the French and the
British probably would join the US in a military operation to keep
it open, and the West Germans would support the effort.
The West Europeans are anxious to see a quick ne-
gotiated settlement, but their fear of too close involve-
ment in the conflict and their lack of leverage over
Iran make them reluctant to try to mediate. The impor-
tance of relations with Iraq and its Arab supporters,
however, has led some West Europeans to favor the Iraqis
to a limited degree. This is especially true of France,
which has long had close ties with Baghdad, is heavily
dependent on Iraqi oil, and has high hopes of expandi
its influence among Arab states in the Persian Gulf.
Paris is'attempting simultaneously to preserve good
relations with Iraq, expand its influence in the Persian
Gulf, and put itself in position to counter any attempt
to block the Strait. The French Government would still
like to see a settlement favorable to Iraq, although
it is increasingly wary of being drawn too deeply into
Baghdad's corner.
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The war has led France to accelerate development of
French political, security, and commercial relations
elsewhere in the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia recently
signed a major arms contract that French officials say
guarantees oil supplies to France.
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West Germany
The West German Government continues to follow a
policy of strict neutrality. Although it believes that
Iran is more important internationally, it also wants
to protect its recently improved relations with Iraq.
Bonn's primary fears are that the conflict might
expand beyond Iran and Iraq and threaten the flow of its
oil through the Strait. West Germany is ready to support
efforts to negotiate an end to the fighting but believes
that only an Islamic or UN mediation attempt could succeed.
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