NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY SATURDAY 9 AUGUST 1980

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82T00466R000400020038-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 31, 2012
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: August 9, 1980
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
Saturday
9 August 1980
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Situation Report
Iran . . . . . . . . . .
Briefs and Comments
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Saudi Arabia - Iraq: Pos
sible Action on Jerusalem . . . .
3
Eastern Europe: Bumper G
rain Harvest. . . . . . . . . . .
7
Yugoslavia: Succession A
mbiguities. . . . . . . . . . . .
8
Nicaragua: Municipal Ele
ctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
Israel: Aerial Refueling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9
Special Analysis
USSR - Western Europe: Natural Gas Pipeline . . . . . . . 11
9 August 1980
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Top Secret
Ayatollah Rafsanjani, the speaker of the Islamic Consultative
Assembly, said yesterday that the legislature supports Education
Minister Mohammad Ali Rajai for prime minister.
Rafsanjani added that 107 of 155 Assembly members
back Rajai's selection. He said Rajai's name has been
sent to President Bani-Sadr to be formally nominated.
Bani-Sadr probably will agree to nominate Rajai, but
Rajai must still be officially ratified by the entire
Assembly. His prospective appointment was discussed
with Ayatollah Khomeini yesterday.
The 47-year-old Rajai is a prominent member of
Ayatollah Beheshti's Islamic Republic Party and was one
of Beheshti's candidates for prime minister. Rajai is
said to be a senior and trusted member of the party
leadership and close to Khomeini.
Rajai was appointed Education Minister in September
1979 and has advocated reform of Iran's education system
along Islamic lines. He also has been a forceful propo-
nent of cultural revolution throughout Iranian society.
Rajai has indicated that he would appoint a cabinet
composed solely of members of the Islamic Republic Party.
We have no information on Rajai's views on the hostages,
but we suspect that his position is close to that of
Beheshti.
Hostage Trials
An unidentified member of the Assembly has told the
press that a draft bill contains details on preparations
for hostage trials. He added that the bill calls for
"speedy" action on the trials.
Iran-Iraq-USSR
Iranian Ambassador Mokri yesterday warned at a
press conference that he will be recalled unless the
USSR stops selling military equipment to Iraq; Khomeini
on Wednesday had criticized Moscow's sales.
9 August 1980
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SAUDI ARABIA - IRAQ: Possible Action on Jerusalem
The Saudis, with Iraqi support, may be trying to promote a
coordinated drive by Arab and Islamic states against Israel's
reaffirmation of its annexation of Arab East Jerusalem.
Since returning from a brief visit to Saudi Arabia
earlier this week, Iraqi President Saddam Husayn has
called publicly on other Arab leaders to support the
Iraqi-Saudi threat to sever political and economic ties
with those states--mainly Latin American--that refuse
According to a Saudi-owned newspaper in London, the 25X1
Palestine Liberation Organization--perhaps with Saudi
encouragement--also has called for a special meeting of
the Islamic Conference's Jerusalem Committee to consider 25X1
"measures to confront the Israeli decision." The meeting
reportedly will take place in Morocco later this month.
The Saudis may hope, therefore, to use the Jerusalem
question to maintain pressure on the Europeans and keep
attention focused on Middle East problems between now
and the US election. The Saudi state-run radio yesterday
asserted further "passive" UN Security Council resolutions
on Israeli activity "could lead to a war." It called on
the US not to veto any strong draft resolution on the
Jerusalem issue. The Council is expected to resume formal
debate on that subject within the next 10 days. As the
self-appointed guardians of Islamic values, the Saudis
probably also feel compelled for domestic political
reasons to take the lead on the Jerusalem issue. Saddam
Husayn probably hopes, in turn, to gain some political
mileage at home from supporting the Saudis on this issue
as well as to promote closer ties with Riyadh.
9 August 1980
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Labor unrest is still flaring up throughout Poland.
Some workers, learning of pay hikes elsewhere, are
striking for similar increases. In one factory, workers
went back on strike briefly on Wednesday and successfully
pressured management to make good on earlier promises.
Trash collectors in Warsaw have.b_een...on strike since
Tuesday.
In some areas worker demands for more responsive trade
unions evidently continue to be an important grievance.
Railway workers in the southeastern city of Lublin--where
labor unrest almost got out of control in mid-July and
where the mood reportedly continues to be especially
gloomy--have begun nominating their own candidates for
trade union elections scheduled for mid-August. Unofficial
worker strike committees also continue to be active in
some factories where strikes were settled.
apparent response to workers questions over who is
responsible for Poland's difficult economic situation,
the party daily on Monday blamed the international situa-
tion, bureaucratic errors, and the slipshod performance
of some Polish workers.
9 August 1980
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EASTERN EUROPE: Bumper Grain Harvest
Prospects remain good for a grain harvest in Eastern Europe
of about 95 million tons this year, compared with the 1979 output
of 90.6 million tons.
Even in good years, East European production does
not meet domestic requirements. Imports of grain during
the marketing year 1980/81 probably will reach 14-16
million tons, down from last year's record of an esti-
mated 17.8 million tons. Most of the imports will come
Production of winter grains, which normally accounts
for half of the region's total grain output, is expected
to be above average and may reach record levels in some
areas. In Poland, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia, the
spring grains--mainly barley and oats--also have benefited
from the cool and wet growing conditions.
Press reporting has exaggerated the amount of flood
damage in Poland. Limited satellite imagery indicates
that damage to grain crops has been minor; wet fields
will hamper mechanized harvesting efforts, but yields
should be at least average.
The Poles will buy most of the imports--about 7
million tons. If they could afford it, they would almost
certainly buy more.
Growing conditions for corn, the major spring grain
crop in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Yugoslavia, have
not been good. In recent weeks, however, conditions
have improved, and an average harvest is now expected.
The East Europeans may purchase additional grain
during the year to replace domestic grain bound for the
USSR--estimated to be about 2 million tons. Because of
their reliance on US agricultural products, these coun-
tries probably would not participate in any large-scale
maneuver to circumvent the US grain embargo.
Top Secret
August 198-0-
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Top Secret
YUGOSLAVIA: Succession Ambiguities
The process by which Yugoslavia's next party leader
will be chosen is still not clear and could turn into the
first serious political competition in the post-Tito
era. When Tito was alive he was both head of state and
President of the party. The mechanics of succession to
head of state were relatively clear, and the position was
filled with little trouble. Tito's party position termi-
nated with his death, however, and the procedures for
succession to the next highest post, President of the
Party Presidium, are vague and open to different inter-
pretations.
The term of the current incumbent expires in October.
Presidium member Vladimir Bakaric, who
was a leading candi-
No other candidate seems to have an edge. The 25X6
Presidium member being mentioned for the job with greater 25X1
frequency is Aleksandar Grlickov, a native Macedonian.
He is eligible to fill the post under Yugoslavia's system
of carefully balancing nationalities in top party and
state posts.
Top Secret
9 August 1980
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NICARAGUA: Municipal Elections
The Sandinistas have scheduled a rally for 23 August
to celebrate the completion of their six-month literacy
campaign, and the occasion will be propitious for announc-
ing the elections. The Presidents of Costa Rica, Panama,
and Ecuador--all proponents of pluralism for Nicaragua--
are expected to attend. Moreover, Sandinista leaders
will be able to claim that, having made good on their
promise to make the Nicaraguan people literate, they now
can proceed with municipal elections.
ISRAEL: Aerial Refueling
(fitted with what appeared
to be a refueling boom. The Israelis currently operate
three tankers, but all are fitted with the refueling
system that is compatible only with A-4 and some F-4
fighters. The system cannot be used with F-15s or the
F-16s the Israelis are now receiving.
This would bring potential targets 25X1
in Libya, Iraq, an the Arabian Peninsula well within
reach of these aircraft. 25X1
9 August 1980
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Top Secret
USSR - WESTERN EUROPE: Natural Gas Pipeline
Plans are under way for the most costly East-West economic
project ever undertaken--a large-diameter, high-capacity gas pipe-
line from West Siberia to six West European nations. The deal will
be a financial bonanza for Moscow. By 1990, the annual amount of
gas to be delivered would be the energy equivalent of nearly all the
oil Moscow now exports to Western Europe for about $10 billion a
year in hard currency.
The Soviets' heightened interest in the project--
first broached by Moscow in 1978--probably reflects an
effort to undermine economic sanctions b offerin the
Prospect of a ma'or deal to the West.
The USSR will have to buy nearly all the equipment
for the pipeline from Western suppliers because it does
not produce the necessary high-strength, large-diameter
pipe or the powerful compressor stations.
The Soviets could have more difficulty lining up
compressor suppliers. Moscow may have to buy US designs
in Western Europe, Japan, or Canada.
We estimate that the equipment will cost Moscow
$6 billion in hard currency, roughly half the price of
the entire project. Moscow will need $5 billion of this
amount in credit, a sum too great for commercial banks
to lend without government approval. The West European
governments, which generally favor the project, are
likely to grant approval readily.
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1979 to 6.4 billion cubic feet per day in 1990.
Top Secret
The deal envisions gas exports of approximately
3.9 billion cubic feet per day to West Germany, France, 25X1
Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Austria. Added to
existing contracts, Soviet gas deliveries for hard cur-
rency would jump from 2 billion cubic feet per day in
Soviet Earnings
be worth 1 million barrels per day of crude oil.
ect reaches full capacity in the late 1980s. Assuming
oil-gas price parity, the income from gas deliveries will
Soviet gas earnings probably will exceed oil revenues
in several years and could net as much as $13 billion
annually at current crude oil prices by the time the proj-
The pipeline not only will be the longest single
gas pipeline ever laid, but will have the greatest ca-
acit of an ever built.[
Western Europe and Soviet Gas Dependency
Gas supplies will become exceedingly tight by the
end of the decade if West European production peaks as
expected by the mid-1980s and alternate supplies remain
uncertain. With the completion of the pipeline, the
Soviet share of gas supplies to the six European nations
involved could reach nearly 30 percent.
the prevailing attitude seems to be one of acceptance.
Although West European nations are concerned about
their vulnerability to Soviet gas supply interruptions,
9 August 1980
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