INF TREATY VERIFICATION ASSESSMENT

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP90G00152R000600760016-4
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
3
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
February 6, 2012
Sequence Number: 
16
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
June 24, 1987
Content Type: 
MEMO
File: 
AttachmentSize
PDF icon CIA-RDP90G00152R000600760016-4.pdf113.21 KB
Body: 
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90GO0152R000600760016-4 ET e~I- ~S9 J'7 MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence VIA: Deputy Director for Intelligen FROM: Douglas J. MacEachin Director of Soviet Analysis SUBJECT: INF Treaty Verification Assessment 1. Action. That you consider the recommendation below. 2. Background. I am i n basic agreement with the points tha made to you in his 19 June memo on the subject assessment. SUVA has seen this document many times and has commented extensively on it. While we have had substantive differences with the subject draft, I believe the main problem is in the process--that is, having the DCI commit himself to a verification assessment while the Intelligence Community is still in the of producing a national estimate of its monitoring capabilities nro_cess By doing so, we are prejudging the outcome and givi assent to a document that is likely to become a surrogate monitoring assessment. While the Intelligence Community does produce ad hoc monitoring assessments on a regular basis, the preferred approach in this case would be to have an NIE on monitoring upon which a verification assessment could be based. 3. Recommendation. In view of the foregoing, I recommend that: -- the INF Treaty Verification Assessment not be signed at this time Douglas J. MacEachin 25X1 25X1 25X1 25X1 be completed as quickly as possible. I am willing to commit to the NIO/SP the resources necessary to accomplish this task. Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90GO0152R000600760016-4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90GO0152R000600760016-4 25X1 C'R ET/I ACIS - 1384/87 19 June 1987 MEMORANDUM FOR: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence FROM : Chief, Arms Control Intelligence Staff SUBJECT: INF Treaty Verification Assessment Statement 1. The attached draft interim statement i for your information only. I do not recommend signature at this time. 2. For background, you recall that you signed a note with Ken Adelman (Attachment A) on the desirability to issue joint verification assessments. We started this two months ago, following the Terms of Reference provided for in the joint Casey-Adelman letter of 1985 (Attachment B; see paperclip). ACDA did not want to include a section on "military risks" and "safeguards" but, instead, wanted this interim statement on basically monitoring issues (but which they call "verifiability") so that it could at least say the process is underway. 3. Ken Adelman is very eager for you to co-sign this with him as soon as possible. 4. We have tried to steer this paper in a direction which would allow you to co-sign it, should you choose to do so. The paper, at the moment, is correct as far as it goes, but is seen by some (especially SOYA) as dwelling on cheating scenarios and those areas where we have monitoring weaknesses. (NIO/SP, however, agrees with the Director of ACDA's bottom line assessment of a three or four out of ten judgment for the treaty.) ACDA, however, is writing the paper to determine how well we can detect Soviet cheating. Therefore, they do not think it is unbalanced. 5. By signing this paper with Ken Adelman, you would, in effect, be signing a monitoring paper jointly with ACDA. The draft monitoring NIE deals with some of these subjects but has not yet been circulated for review, let alone agreed to by analysts. This has made our task especially 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90GO0152R000600760016-4 / q / P`2 5X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90GO0152R000600760016-4 SECRET 6. I am showing this paper to you now so that you can be aware of its contents, its context, and its flaws. I believe that your decision to sign will be based on the relationship you want to have with the Director of ACDA. If you choose to sign it, I want to ensure that the paper you sign is balanced, correct, and will have the least chance to come back and haunt us. I think we may be at that point in this paper in about a week. 7. In any case, we must make it clear to Ken that this is neither a substitute for the rigorous monitoring work in the draft NIE or for the verification assessment that you and Bill Casey wanted to see done. We would benefit from any comments which you might have at this time. Attachments: As stated SECRE~ Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/08: CIA-RDP90GO0152R000600760016-4