AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

Document Type: 
Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
T
Document Page Count: 
14
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
August 16, 2010
Sequence Number: 
1
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
January 3, 1984
Content Type: 
REPORT
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PDF icon CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8.pdf344.38 KB
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Directorate of 9FOV See, et c8 Afghanistan Situation Report 3 January 1984 -Top Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 TOP SECRET AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT CONTENTS 27 DECEMBER ANNIVERSARY QUIET Widely expected large-scale insurgent attacks in Kabul to mark the 27 December anniversary of the Soviet invasion failed to REFUGEE INFLUX FROM IRAN TO PAKISTAN Some 15,000 Afghan refugees are reportedly en route from Iran to Pakistan, and UN officials estimate the total may reach 200,000. USSR-AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN: AIRSPACE VIOLATIONS Increased violations of Pakistani airspace have probably been related to increased insurgent activity in Afghanistan's border provinces. This document is prepared weekly by the Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments on the issues raised in the publication should be directed to 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 25X1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 TOP SECRET I 25X1 Tedzhen .36 KHORASAN E q-, U hakhrissbf Ian yvadz Ko W Gaza -e IShebergha BALKH JOWDAN~ hart S ~_ amangan MaymaOah \ SAMANG)NN/ FARYAB BAD H Dal'eh-ye 7 BMW ) He Now Cha hcha{8 BAM(A~ WR n AgAs row >T Fa'an, J ORUZ N r Ghazni FARA 1 / HAZ Karin Ko 5h /r vnda~ AK' ? Pi9 slat ,~c Dangara e,,~ \ ?T oq o Eohka hem ldazf BADAKHS N iHLAN .7_ . I UZBEK S.S.R. 2voi 2 Kattakurgan 68 KAZAKH S.S.R ura?c - Khodog Boundary representation is not necessarily authoritative. International boundary * National capital Railroad Road 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M- 84-10001CX ii Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 27 DECEMBER ANNIVERSARY QUIET Large-scale insurgent attacks in Kabul to mark the 27 December anniversary of the Soviet invasion failed to materialize, according to US Embassy reports. Strengthened Soviet and regime security--involving far greater patrolling of main thoroughfares, increased Soviet troops at main intersections, and increased guards for Soviet shoppers in the bazaars--kept the capital relatively quiet. 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 25X1 25X1 1 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01 CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 REFUGEE INFLUX FROM IRAN TO PAKISTAN UN refugee officials in Pakistan report a large influx of Sunni Afghan refugees from Iran to Pakistan is underway. Unconfirmed reports place 2,000 to 3,000 new refugees in Baluchistan with 10,000 to 15,000 enroute. UN officials estimate the total may reach 150,000-200,000. US Embassy sources in Islamabad speculate Tehran may be expelling refugees unwilling to join the Iranian Army or the Afghan resistance. The movement of refugees probably is the result of increasing tension between the Iranian populace and Afghan refugees and of the Iranian Government's efforts to move Afghan refugees into camps. Islamabad is not likely to resist the new influx. The new refugees are not linguistically or tribally affiliated to the inhabitants of Baluchistan. Their presence could increase tension in that province but is unlikely to seriously affect Pakistan's stability. 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 2 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 iur btunti -- The Kabul regime is stepping up its anti-US campaign, according to the US Embassy. On 25 December, 20,000 "glum and totally unenthusiastic" demonstrators protested US policy in Latin America, and a Foreign Ministry press conference protested US aggression in Afghanistan. On 28 December the party press referred to expulsions of US officials earlier this year on charges of espionage. -- Younus Khalis has formally broken with the Afghan fundamentalist resistance alliance. the split stems from Khalis' concern that funds were not properly accounted for and that alliance members were doing nothing to stop fighting among insurgent groups inside Afghanistan. -- Moderate resistance leaders Gailani, Mojaddedi, and Nabi have accepted final documents on forming a United Front of Afghanistan The documents were prepared by a committee including representatives of former King Zahir Shah. Fundamentalist leaders Younus Khalis and Rabbani have shown interest but not yet issued statements of support. 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 25X1 25X1 3 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85TOO287ROO1300010001-8 ^VU Y\VIUbI USSR -AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN: AIRSPACE VIOLATIONS The surge in Soviet or Afghan overflights of Pakistani territory in the late summer and early fall probably was related to increased insurgent pressure in Afghanistan's border provinces (see Box 1). Analysts disagree on whether some of the violations were sanctioned by Soviet military commanders to gain tactical intelligence on insurgent activities in Pakistan, or were accidental or conducted by the Afghan Air Force without Soviet knowledge or approval. Major airspace violations such as those of 18 and 19 September are inconsistent with and harmful to present Soviet policy towards Pakistan and therefore probably were not deliberate, according to some analysts. Earlier efforts to pressure Pakistan were counterproductive, and Moscow in the last two years has eschewed threats and emphasized direct dialogue with Islamabad, the analysts say. They believe that Moscow recognizes that the political liabilities of the airspace violations outweigh the potential military benefits of reconnaissance overflights. These analysts believe there is no evidence to indicate that Moscow is adopting a tougher approach towards Islamabad. They believe the Soviets' recent signing of new economic agreements with Pakistan signals Moscow's intent to continue its present policy. 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 4 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85TOO287ROO1300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 iur stcnti caused by pilot navigation errors. Airspace violations even as deep as 40 nautical miles could be inadvertent because of the rugged terrain with few distinguishing features along much of the border, according to the analysts who believe they were unintentional. that most of the Kurram Agency violations--including those in September--probably were accidental and 25X1 25X1 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 5 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 iur ot6nti -- Analysts who say the violations were deliberate believe it is unlikely that the Afghan Air Force would fly deep into Pakistani airspace against established Soviet policy without Soviet approval. Implications All analysts agree that the number of Soviet or Afghan violations of Pakistani airspace has decreased since October, as has insurgent pressure in Paktia Province. We judge that renewed insurgent pressure in Pakistan's border regions could cause an increase in overflights of Pakistani territory--whether deliberate or unintentional. New airspace violations could undercut the present Soviet policy of dialogue with Sustained airspace violations, whether unintentional or intended only to gather intelligence against the insurgents, could heighten tensions with Pakistan and increase the possibility of attacks in Pakistani territory or a clash between Pakistani and Soviet or Afghan aircraft. Islamabad could also feel more pressure to come to terms with Soviet demands on Afghanistan and probably would press for additional US support, including new arms agreements (see Box 2). 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 7 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Our analysis indicates that the surge in airspace violations probably was connected with the sharp deterioration in the security situation in Paktia Province--where Afghan Government forces had been under severe pressure since June. Most of the violations occurred in Kurram Agency, in the area around Parachinar, which is adjacent to Paktia Province and an area of major Afghan insurgent concentration in Pakistan. Most of the other airspace violations occurred over the area between the Khyber Pass and Chitral, which includes several key passes into Afghanistan. 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 (Box 2) Pakistani Perceptions The airspace violations occurred at a time when the UN indirect talks on Afghanistan were stalemated and when Zia was being severely challenged by domestic opposition in Sind. Some diplomats in Islamabad believe the airspace violations were deliberate to take advantage of Zia's weakened political position, even though previous Soviet efforts to intimidate Pakistan did not cause Islamabad to reduce support for the insurgents. Pakistani reaction to the spate of airspace violations was mixed, although Islamabad used them to press its case for modern air defense weapons during the US Defense Secretary's visit in October. -- Some Pakistani officials worried that the violations portend an increase in Soviet pressure on Pakistan to end its support for the Afghan insurgents and to come to terms with the Soviet-installed government in Kabul, according to the US Embassy in Islamabad. -- Other Pakistani officials saw the violations as unintentional and not surprising given the Afghan Government's poor military situation in the border area. 3 January 1984 NESA M 84-10001CX SOVA M 84-10001CX 9 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8 Top Secret Top Secret Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/01: CIA-RDP85T00287R001300010001-8