THE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY HAS BECOME VIRTUALLY USELESS FOR COLLECTING ACCURATE INFORMATION

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00845R000100520002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 16, 2010
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: April 15, 1981
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT
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Number 26
e
ffitertht1btI
INTERNATIONAL
REPORT
A Background Brieflrlq On Strate
is Events
April 15.1981
Lebanon under siege
The current round of fighting in
Lebanon between Syrian troops and
Lebanese Christian militia was a "coor-
dinated and contrived" affair sparked
by the presence of Secretary of State
Alexander Haig in the Middle East.
The purpose, according to informed
Mideast analysts, was to attract Haig's
attention to the critical situation there
and to detract as much as possible from
any impact Haig might have on other
issues in thexegion, especially strategic.
alliances with the United States against
the Soviet Union.
(continued un page 2)
INSIDE
Battle-scarred Beirut as seen through a shell hole in a building located on
the "green line" dividing the eastern and western sections of the city. An
abandoned Syrian checkpoint stands in the foreground.
How U.S. Policy shift
affects the Middle !East
On his recent Mideast tour, Secre- Washington goes through the proper
tary of State Alexander Haig made a' motions of first seeking a U.S.
positive impression on the govern-
ments of Egypt and Israel and alerted
the leaders of Jordan and Saudi Arabia
that the new administration is rethink-
ing its policy for the entire region.
Authoritative sources told Interna-
tional Report that Egyptian President
Anwar Sadat assured Haig that he
would not object to the stationing of
troops in the Sinai that could supple-
ment a rapid deployment force if
peacekeeping force and, failing that,
some form of multinational force.
Haig made clear at each stop that the
United States is not now committed to
any of the options being mentioned as
solutions to the deadlocked Camp
David peace process. This marks a
reversal from the Carter administration
policy which had been shifting toward
support of PLO involvement in the
(continued on page 2)
Backgrounder.......... P3
Japan acts to defend
sealanes............ P4
'Reign of terror' in
Afghanistan ......... P4
Syrian 'peacekeeping'
leads to war........P5
Libya's latest target:
Madagascar..........P6
The Kremlin's cat-and-
mouse game .......... P6
Spain charts a Western
course ..............P7
New terror campaign
in El Salvador...... P8
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3
by national security adviser Richard
Allen in Washington, that indicated the
United States. supported such raids
against the PLO.
Tried to stay on track
While these and other issues swirled
around Haig, the secretary of state
tried to stay on track with his agenda of
discussing regional security with
Mideast allies (Saudi Arabia, Jordan,
Israel) and ways of countering Soviet
threats in the area. By and large,
analysts say, whatever success Haig
claimed for his mission, it could have
been more substantive if the Lebanese
situation had not flared up at the same
time.
According to one expert who spent
years in Lebanon, the fighting will con-
tinue as long as neither side is willing to
mount a major offensive. Neither side
is willing to do so and risk losing in the
process.
Said one analyst: "The Syrians could
lose thousands of men and could wipe
out the Christians if they wanted to.
But there has never been such a major
assault. The reason is nobody wants to
lose. They either have the status quo or
a confrontation which could result in a
major loss. Basically, it's a stalemate
with neither side able to win. So the
fighting continues."
"Only the civilians die in the pro-
cess," the analyst continued. "The
soldiers are too smart. They know you
have to be behind a sandbag and not in
the street when the shelling starts.
Also, there are agreements as to when
and where the shelling is to take place.
It's a cynical operation that takes civi-
lians as the casualties."
Look for a new round of major
flareups to commence around June,
when Israeli elections are scheduled.
In addition to the difficulty in field-
ing disputing and warring parties in the
Middle East, Haig is also hamstrung by
his own State Department.
So far, there have been no changes
of top personnel in the department's
Near East bureau; most of the officials
there are holdovers from the Carter
administration, intent on conducting
policy according to the old way.
This was evidenced during Haig's
recent Mideast trip. Haig singled out
the Syrians for instigating the current
round of attacks against the Christians,
but U.S. officials countered these state-
ments and privately told Syrian officials
that, in reality, nothing had changed.
Morris Draper, deputy assistant
secretary of state for Near Eastern
affairs, went out of his way to mollify
Syrian authorities by stating that the
United States actually approved of
Syrian involvement in the U.N.
peacekeeping force. The Syrians were
so upset with Haig's criticisms that at
first they refused to meet Draper. But
they were apparently satisfied after he
attempted to neutralize Haig's com-
ments.
BA CKGROUNDER
A top U.S. diplomat has been dis-
patched to Iraq to continue negotia-
tions on restoring normalized relations
with that country.
International Report was the first to
report that Iraq was tilting to the West
and was seeking to improve relations
especially with the United States (see
International Report Nov. 26, 1980).
Now, Secretary of State Alexander
Haig has sent Deputy Assistant Secre-
tary of State Morris Draper to Baghdad,
carrying a message of interest on behalf
of the Reagan administration.
Baghdad broke relations with the
United States at the time of the 1967
Arab-Israeli war, and since then has
revolved closer to the Soviet orbit.
Recently, however, with the Iran-Iraq
warfare, President Saddam Hussein
has turned toward the West for support
against Tehran which has been seeking
its aid from new friends in Moscow,
Syri,a/and Libya.
The Central Intelligence Agency has
become virtually "useless" for collect-
ing accurate information and analyzing
it intelligently, critics charge. This is
because the best people left the agency
following attacks by Congress and
Carter White House restraints that left
the CIA demoralized and incapable of
intelligent action.
Two recent example of CIA fum-
bling: a secret analysis paper not so
mysteriously "leaked" to the press
concluded no "credible evidence"
existed that the Soviet Union was subs-
tantially behind international terror-
ism. This was despite abundant evi-
dence collected by other intelligence
agencies (DIA and in the State Depart-
ment) as well as reports prepared by
West European intelligence agencies
and available to the CIA.
The other instance of the CIA miss-
ing the boat involves its recent assess-
ment that the Soviets could not have
built a titanium-hull submarine. able to
dive deeper, travel faster and out-
maneuver existing U.S. subs. Now, of
course, the existence of the titanium
sub ("Typhoon") has been verified
and Pentagon planners are scrambling
to figure out how U.S. carriers will be
able to evade the lethal subs.
key, struggling to solidify rela-
tions with the United States and
Western Europe, finds itself fighting a
propaganda battle with leftists who are
intent on isolating that strategic coun-
try.
Informed sources in Istanbul told
International Report that the extreme
left wing "created terrorism in Turkey
before the Sept. 12 coup and have
moved (in significant numbers) to
Europe, especially West Germany."
They are trying to influence the leftists
in European parliaments, the sources
report.
One military official reported that
Turkish intelligence intercepted a letter
from a Turkish leftist in West Ger-
many, instructing his comrades to
"send us evidence of torture in
Turkey. If you don't have it, for God's
sake, make it up!" the official quoted.
Libya's strongman Col. Moammar
Qaddafi is shrewdly positioning him-
self with Turkey and France. Turkey is
curtly receiving bids to construct an
craft manufacturing plant. The U.S.
-15 and the French Mirage are con-
sidered front-runners. U.S. officials are
reportedly reluctant to finance such a
deal, and Qaddafi has offered to
finance the Mirage. France and Libya
are at odds over the invasion of Chad
and Qaddafi's offer has interesting
political overtones. This is a deal that
bears watching.
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ZS
deploying 572 Pershing 11 and cruise mis-
siles. That plan has encountered opposi-
tion from several European nations.
notably West Germany, whose govern-
ments are under pressure from left-wing
anti-nuclear forces.
French hats in the ring
The French presidential campaign is
underway, with the left, right and center
fully represented.
All told, there are 10 contenders vying
for the two run-off positions in the April
26 elections. The three chief candidates
are President Valery Giscard d'Estaing;
his rival to the right. Jacques Chirac;
and Socialist Party leader Francois
Mitterand. Also commanding a signifi-
cant following is Georges Marchais, the
pro-Soviet Communist candidate.
Polls thus far have shown contrasting
forecasts about the election outcome,
leading to charges of manipulation and
political rigging. There is a general con-
sensus, however. that Giscard d'Estaing
and Mitterand are running a close race,
with Chirac gaining strength.
Moscow has deployed 220 of the SS-20
missiles, 20 more than previously
reported.
"With their SS-20 missiles alone, the
Soviets already have deployed about 660
warheads, more warheads than are planned
for NATO's long-range nuclear force mod-
ernization program," the ministers said in
a communique. Each missile has a range
of 3,000 miles, which is 25 percent more
than was previously reported.
These revelations dovetailed with the
growing controversy over NATO's plan to
upgrade its defenses in Europe by
New terror campaign in El Salvador
Leftist forces in El Salvador appear
to be launching a new- offensive aimed
at destabilizing the Duarte government
through a series of assassinations.
During the past month, six mayors,
deputy mayors or district governors
have been killed in political violence. In
addition, according to the U.S. State
Department, there have been at least
four attempts on the life of President
Jose Napoleon Duarte.
Intelligence officials said it is often
difficult to determine whether leftist or
rightist forces were responsible for the
murders. Last week, 24 civilians were
killed in what some people claimed was
a mass execution by El Salvador's
Treasury Police. The report could not
be confirmed.
The U.S. administration condemned
the slayings and called on the Duarte
government to resist violence from
both sides.
James Cheek, deputy assistant secre-
tary of state for inter-American affairs,
said that the leftist guerrillas had
adopted a terrorist strategy of
assassinating government officials, but
right-wing extremists are also
assassinating middle-level technicians
in the land redistribution program.
Pentagon officials said the
Salvadoran army was adding 5,000
men to its present force of 8,000 to
increase not only its anti-guerrilla
strength but also to improve discipline
of the security forces.
The Reagan administration said
recent events in El Salvador rein-
forced its determination- to support
the Duarte government. In a major
foreign policy victory for the president,
the House Inter-American Affairs sub-
committee voted down amendments
seeking to cut off military aid to El
Salvador in 1982 and withdraw all 56
U.S. military advisers now stationed in
the strife-tom Central American coun-
try.
The administration has designated
5101 million for El Salvador including
526 million in military aid and training
funds, S40 million in security-related
economic support funds and 535 mil-
lion in development assistance.
Argentina gets help
The House subcommittee also
handed President Reagan a second
foreign policy victory by thwarting an
attempt by liberal Democrats to retain
a ban on sales of military equipment to
Argentina.
Relations between the United States
and Argentina-severely strained dur-
ing the past four years as a result of the
Carter administration's "human
rights" policies-have improved
markedly since Reagan became presi-
dent.
Argentina, in fact, has been one of
the few Latin American countries to
openly support the U.S. position in El
Salvador.
An Argentine general has said
Argentina would be willing to train
Salvadoran troops in counterin-
surgency warfare if El Salvador asked
for help.
Last week, U.S. Army Chief of Staff
Edward Meyer visited Argentina in a
tour aimed at analyzing the "Marxist
offensive" in the Americas.
Meyer met with President Roberto
Viola and Army Commander and mili-
tary junta member Leopoldo Galtlerl.
Galtieri and Meyer reportedly reached
an agreement where both armies would
consult each other on a periodic basis.
Colombian President Julio Cesar
Burbay Ayala has candled official
visits to the Soviet Union and China
scheduled for this month.
The Colombian leader cut off dip-
lomatic relations with Cuba last month
after discovering evidence that Havana
trained M-19 guerrillas who attempted
an invasion of Colombia near the
Ecuadoran border.
Mexico and Venezuela have offered
to work together to help find a settle-
ment to the crisis in El Salvador.
The offer came in a final communi-
que marking a three-day official visit to
Mexico by Venezuelan President Luis
Herrera Campine. Both nations also
warned of the dangers of "interna-
tionalization" of the Central American
conflict.
The planned cooperation of Mexico
and Venezuela joins the region's two
largest oil producers-with S23 billion
in oil exports between them. But it also
makes for strange bedfellows. Mexico
has close ties with Cuba and opposes
the U.S. policy in many Central
American issues while Venezuela
generally supports Washington and
keeps its distance from Havana. In El
Salvador, Mexico sympathizes with the
opposition while Venezuela backs the
civilian-military junta.
This confidential report Is a of FREE PRESS INTERNATIONAL Research Center in New York. Further information about
Hems iricixlsd In the INTER AN TIONAL REPORT will be made available to saibacdbers upon request.
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11-1oon"I"ap-er -11`,Testo Take Up The Slack
ON Lam: rl; (' lr.r Y:ilJnltvvivir ivJL ;
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paper put out by friends and members of the Rev.
Sun M;rung Moon's Unification Church of America.
That may not be so, bad, accordin.,y to News World
Vice President (Editorial) Michael Trulson, a 28-year-
old journalism graduate of Kansas State University.
By Robert H. Williams
Washington Po,6 SW f Wrt+er
When New Yorkers wake up this morning they will
have one local daily newspaper to choose from, and
that will be The News World, the 24-page morning
newsstand sales this morning, at a dime a copy ($I
a week for home deli.'ery), and has the press capac-
ity to go up to between 300,000 and 500,0W depend-
ing on how long the strike lasts.
Will this put the Moon paper in the black? Trul-
son ducked the question, but indicated that it
couldn't hurt. The parent corporation is News
World Communications Inc., a nonpublic but for-
profit corporation. The paper, Trulson said, is fi-
nanced by friends of Moon-businesses operated by
members of the Unification Church of America.
The newspaper employs about 120 persons, Trul-
sonsaid, about 60 -,on the business side and 60 on
'interest, sports,.comics and racing news. the' editorial-production side; many of winch are
Trulson said last night that The News. World has been
"gaining definite acceptance?-in New York for its
c:aily and Sunday content of 24pages of news, general
,
union Mount . Kisco;- N.Y.; printing plant- -(at The - The paper, he said, has already won three awards:
Patent Trader), mostly for home- delivery but some the Silurians (veteran newspaper people in New
for newsstand sales in Manhattan, Queens, Brooklyn,. York) prize for the best feature story; the New.;
the Brorvc, but not Staten Island. York Press Club's Cub Reporter of the Year Award;.
Last night, Trulson said, the paper was gearing up-"and the. Newspaper.Guild's prize for-the best black
fora press "run of '100,000--5 times normal-for and white feature photograph.
000 papers a day out of its non- -. said.
has been printing 20
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