JAMAICA: MARIJUANA ESTIMATE, SPRING 1985

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000304900001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 24, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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Central Intelligence Agency
9-Zit",/e
MEMORANDUM FOR: See Distribution List
SUBJECT: Jamaica: Marijuana Estimate, Spring 1985
Analytic Support Group.
marijuana cultivation from the fall of 1984 to spring 1985.
2. This memorandum was prepared by analysts from the
Strategic Narcotics/Western Hemisphere Branch and the DDI
1. The attached memorandum presents our estimate of
marijuana production in Jamaica in the spring 1985. The estimate
was prepared from an aerial survey of Jamaica in late April and
early May. The estimate confirms a significant reduction in
to the Chief. Terrarism/Narcotics Analysis Division, OGI,
3. Questions and comments are welcome and may be addressed
Attachment:
Jamaica: Marijuana Production,
Spring 1985
July 1985
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1 - 25X1
1 - The Honorable Jon R. Thomas, INM, State Department
1 - Mr. Clyde Taylor, INM State Department
1 - Dr. Carlton Turner, SA to the President
1 - Mr. J. Philip Hughes, DA to the Vice President for National
Security Affairs
3 - Mr. Robert Whitbread, Office of the Vice President
1 - The Honorable Langhorne Motley, Inter-American Affairs,
State Department
1 - Lucian Heichler, INR/C, State Department
1 - Mr. Thomas Byrne, DEA
1 - Mr. Charles Saphos, US Justice Department, Criminal
Division
2 - Captain Theodore E. Deming, US Coast Guard
1 - Mr. Douglas P. Mulholland, Treasury Department
SUBJECT: Jamaica: Marijuana Production, Spring 1985
OGI/TNAD/NAR (26 July 1985)
Distribution:
1 - The Honorable William Hewitt, US Ambassador, Kingston
1 - DDO/LA
1 - DDO/CP
1 - C/ASG
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
2 - NIO/CTN
1 - NIO/ALA
1 - C/NIC/AG
2 - Mr. George Heavey, US Customs Service, Office of
Intelligence
1 - Colonel Richard Childress, NSC
1 - Mr. Sean McWeeney, FBI/Organized Crime
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - Executive Director
1- Mr. Thomas Tharp, NNBIS, Miami, Florida
1 - D/OGI, DD/OGI
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - D/ALA, DD/ALA
1 - OIA/ERD/NAR
1 - ALA/MCD/CAR
1 - ALA/MCD/RI
2 - TNAD
2 - TNAD/NAR
1 - OGI/PG/CH
1 - OGI/EXS/PG
8 - OGI/PG/CH (One Sourced)
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Central Intelligence Agency
DIRECTOR OF INTELLIGENCE
24 July 1985
JAMAICA: Marijuana Production, Spring 1985
Summary
The Jamaican Government is making progress in its efforts to
reduce marijuana production. An aerial survey conducted in April
by the Jamaica Defense Force of the island's marijuana crop
revealed an estimated 400 hectares under cultivation, notably
less than the 1,900 hectares estimated during a similar survey in
the fall of 1984. We estimate Jamaican marijuana production in
1985 will be no more than 1,250 to 1,450 metric tons, well below
the 2,000 to 3,000 metric tons estimated for 1984. Much of the
decline is probably the result of improved eradication by
Jamaican security forces who, with US support, destroyed more
marijuana durin the first five onths of this year than in all
of 1984. F
This memorandum was prepared by
the Strategic Narcotics Branch, Office of Global
Issues and by the Analytic Support Group.
Comments and queries s ou be addressed to Chief,
Terrorism/Narcotics Analysis Division,
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Jamaica: Marijuana Production, Spring 1985
Introduction
Jamaica is one of the three major foreign suppliers of
marijuana to the United States. In late 1984, however, the
Government increased enforcement pressure on the marijuana
trade. New legislation gave the Government broad powers to
control air traffic, and special tax measures directed against
drug traffickers were introduced. The Government stepped up
eradication efforts to halt the spread of marijuana
cultivation. Our 1985 spring marijuana survey indicates
Jamaica's marijuana eradication program may be succeeding, and US
supported antinarcotics programs may be yielding significant
results. The marijuana industry is deeply entrenched in Jamaican
society, however, and a strained economy and rugged terrain will
continue to complicate enforcement and eradication efforts. 25X1
'the Aerial Survey
Our current estimate of Jamaican marijuana production is
based on an aerial survey of the spring marijuana crop conducted
between 25 April and 2 May by the Jamaica Defense Force (JDF)
with the assistance of US experts. The survey covered
approximately 2,700 square kilometers or about 30 percent of the
island west of Kingston. Marijuana is not known to be grown
commercially to the east and a helicopter flight around the Blue
Mountains by survey personnel revealed no marijuana cultivation.
The imagery obtained from the aerial survey was more than 85
percent cloud-free and of adequate quality to make a reliable
The aerial survey was backed by extensive ground-truth.
Eight helicopter missions were flown to verify the aerial
photography and to provide close-up inspection of marijuana
cultivation and eradication techniques. The absence of large
fields and the almost total disappearance of seedbeds in the
Negril and Braes River wetlands was in striking contrast to
observations during a similar aerial survey in the fall of
1984. Numerous furrows, lush with young seedlings last year,
were overgrown this spring. In addition, members of the spring
team who participated in the fall 1984 survey reported major
reductions in the amount of land devoted to marijuana cultivation
in the interior highlands.
Marijuana Cultivation and the Spring Estimate
Imagery from the recent aerial survey shows that the spring
marijuana crop, like the fall crop, is grown predominately in the
interior hills and mountains of Jamaica. Most marijuana
cultivation is located on public land in the mountainous regions
of St. Ann, St. Catherine, and Clarendon Parishes. Smaller
concentrations were observed in the hills of St. James,
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St. Elizabeth, Hanover, and Westmoreland Parishes as well as in
the Negril and Braes River wetlands. (See map.) In almost all
cases the plots of marijuana were small, averaging two-tenths of
a hectare,. Observers saw only a few fields larger than one
hectare.
The estimated area under cultivation in Jamaica in the
spring of 1985 is between 280 and 540 hectares, with a midpoint
of 410 hectares.
the average yield is between 5 and 770
kilograms per ectare per harvest. These figures indicate the
spring crop of marijuana will be between 220 and 320 metric
tons. If the cultivated area for the fall 1985 crop approaches
the 1,900 hectares estimated for fall 1984, total production in
1985 will be between 1,250 and 1,450 metric tons, far less than
the 2,000 to 3,000 metric tons we estimated last year. If
Jamaican eradication efforts continue at their present pace
through the summer and fall, the total crop harvested in 1985
will be even less. Our estimate of total annual marijuana
production in Jamaica still contains some uncertainties
Despite these uncertainties, the April survey results point
to a spring 1985 marijuana harvest that will be substantially
below that of fall 1984 harvest. We judge that a combination of
factors probably account for this:
o The spring crop may always be smaller than the fall one,
making our 1984 assumption that the crops are about
equal incorrect.
o Government eradication efforts over the past several
months have reduced overall marijuana cultivation.
o Intensified enforcement efforts may have caused some
Jamaican growers to skip or delay the spring planting.
o A marijuana surplus in the US market may have caused
growers to cut back. 25X1
Signs of Progress in Drug Control
The Jamaican Government of Prime Minister Seaga has made
substantial progress in drug control this year. Seaga told US
officials at a recent meeting that his objective was the total
elimination of the island's marijuana export crop by the end of
summer 1985. Early in 1985, Seaga ordered Jamaican security
forces to intensify their destruction of marijuana fields by
increasing the eradication workforce from 18 men to 100.
By late May,
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security forces had destroyed over 600 hectares of marijuana,
more than in all of 1984. Eradication operations were
particularly effective in the marshlands of western Jamaica,
where the flat terrain is conducive to extensive cultivation as
well as more efficient eradication.
This year Seaga has taken important steps to curb smuggling
by general aviation aircraft. In late February, he shifted
responsibilty for security at Jamaica's four major domestic
airfields from the Civil Aviation Department to the JDF in an
attempt to control smuggling. In addition to improving control
at the domestic airfields, the JDF destroyed several clandestine
airstrips traffickers had used. Of some 40 illegal airfields
identified as major outlets for marijuana traffickers, JDF
engineer units had demolished 29 by the middle of June
According to US Embassy
sources, the JDF effort was highly motivated and effective.
Obstacles to Further Progress
Despite considerable strides in drug enforcement,
significant problems remain and the present decline in production
may be only temporary. Major Jamaican drug producers and brokers
probably have the resources to skip an entire season while the
wait to see if current enforcement pressure can be maintained.
Traffickers also are able to respond quickly to enforcement
initiatives, and experience has shown that smugglers can repair
damaged airstrips easily, and maritime and commercial air cargo
routes can be exploited more fully.
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Jamaican resources are stretched thin, and continued
pressure on traffickers will require sustained US aid. US
Embassy officials have warned that Jamaican funds for the
eradication program are already running low. For example, the
JDF Coast Guard lacks the spare parts and fuel to keep its patrol
boats operating at full capacity, and it is not prepared to
counter the surge in maritime drug trafficking expected as air
routes are squeezed. Moreover, the loss in early June of a JDF
Air Wing helicopter in a narcotics raid was a serious blow to
enforcement capabilities and left only one helicopter
operational.
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Fall 1984 and Spring 1985 Jamaican Marijuana Crop a
Stratum"
High
Low
Marsh
Approx.
Total
Estimated
Number of
Fields
Estimated h
Area Under
Cult. (ha)
Estimated d
Production
(met. tons)
6,550
1,300
750-1,000
2,150
430
250-350
700
140
75-125
9,400
1,900
1,000-1,500
Estimated
Number of
Fields
Estimated C
Area Under
Cult. (ha)
Estimated"
Production
(met. tons)
815
170
90-130
1,125
235
125-180
30
5
3-5
1,970
410
.220-315
a Totals may not add because of rounding.
b The three strata are: (I) The mountainous region with a high concentration
of fields; (2) the mountainous region with a lower concentration of fields; and
(3) the wetland or marsh area.
c The estimated number of fields times the average field size of 0.2 hectares
gives the estimated area under cultivation. Average field size was calculated
from measurements taken from the aerial photography.
A Multiplying the area under cultivation by the average yield of 450 to 770
kg/ha provides a production estimate for a single crop.
The Estimating Procedure
Our spring 1985 estimate of Jamaican marijuana production is
a statistical analysis of data derived from aerial imagery and is
based on the assumption that the total harvest is equal to the
area under cultivation multiplied by the average yield. The
fields observed on the imagery are counted and their average size
in hectares is determined. The number of hectares in the
photographed area is estimated by multiplying the number of
fields observed by their average size. The total area devoted to
marijuana production is then extrapolated statistically from the
area surveyed. For statistical purposes, the marijuana growing
regions were divided into three categories: the wetlands near
Negril and the Braes River; the interior highlands with a high
concentration of fields; and the mountainous r with a lower
concentration of fields. F 7
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Jamaica: Marijuana Cultivation Areas, Spring 1985
Marijuana cultivation
iR Bauxite deposit
-'- Parish boundary
Railroad
Road
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