ROMANIA: RUMORS ABOUT GORBACHEV'S MEDDLING

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP87R00529R000100060043-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 30, 2011
• Sequence Number: 43
• Publication Date: April 8, 1986
• Content Type: MEMO

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e vec or o entra n e tgence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
ss~s ant ational Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: Romania: Rumors About Gorbachev's Meddling
Summary. Speculation in Romania that Gorbachev is meddling to
influence the Ceausescu succession has been increasing since the first of
the year.
-- The essence of the rumors is that Gorbachev has sought to
sponsor officials--like ex-defense Minister Olteanu and Ion
Iliescu a once popular youth leader now in disfavor--who might
conceivably become challengers to a weak post-Ceausescu
leadership.
The stories remain uncorroborated
SUMMARY
ere are severs potential factors which might motivate
such speculation in Romania.
-- The rumors could indicate that some Romanians are beginning
to think that Gorbachev may be their only hope in ending
Ceausescu's ever tightening grip and stopping a dynastic
succession by the hated Ceausescu clan.
-- The rumors could be deliberate efforts by the Ceausescu
clan to speed-up their pre-succession game plan and to
discredit possible challengers.
CL BY SIGNER
DECL OADR
COPY No.
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TOP SECRET
-- The rumors might be either initiated or used by Ceausescu
to "cry wolf" in hopes of increasing Western support for
his regime. (We know for example that Romania is again
having cash flow problems and is trying to find away to
wheedle an IMF standby loan by May without accepting new
conditionality. Bucharest also has a tough fight this year
in retaining MFN status due to heightened Congressional
criticism of his human rights record.)
For now I lean toward the latter theory but elements of all three could
be at work. It is important to clarify the real reason because either of
the first two theories--serious morale problems or factional
infighting--could invite actual Soviet meddling and the third is a
potentially important factor in how the US and the West respond to
Romania's requests.
2. The rumors of course could reflect a serious Kremlin effort to
either shape events in Romania or, at minimum, to make a gesture in
support of "healthy " pro-Soviet forces. But lacking signs of new strains
in Romanian-Soviet ties or evidence from Soviet or other Communist
sources that Gorbachev is meddling, this explanation appears very weak.
-- Bucharest itself is giving no sign of being under
heightened Soviet pressure. Ceausescu's recent policy
pronouncements fit a pattern begun several years ago when
he became marginally more cooperative in hopes of winning
trade concessions from the USSR. Romania has agreed to
new cooperation--like a joint, expert-level, effort to
overcome polemics on historical disputes. Ongoing
cooperation involves Soviet technicians helping to install
new SAM-2 sites at Resita and to reactivate a uranium mine.
3. The evidence is consistent with the NID analysis of 3 April that
the USSR is sticking to its waiting game strategy regarding Romania.
-- Most observers concede that Gorbachev dislikes the
mismanagement and nepotism of the Ceausescu regime and also
would dislike a Ceausescu dynastic succession. But there
is no overt Soviet criticism to support assertions of
Soviet threats or meddling.
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-- Nor has Moscow made major concessions to Romania. Gorbachev
gave Ceausescu a lukewarm public reception at the CPSU
congress--the usual treatment for a maverick in a gathering
of Soviet allies. And Gorbachev reportedly ignored
Ceausescu's efforts to introduce economic negotiations into
bilateral talks.
In short, if Soviet deception is at work it is a good job.
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SC No. .'8213-86
8 April 1986
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
FROM:
Assistant National Intelligence Officer for Europe
SUBJECT: Romania: Rumors About Gorbachev's Meddling
Distribution:
1 - DC I
2 - DDCI
3 - DDCI-designate
4 - C/NIC
5 - VC/NIC/Ford
6 - VC/NIC/Fuller
7 - D/DDI/EURA
8 - A/NIO/EUR
9 - NIO/EUR chrono
10 - NIO/EUR 3.7
11 - DDI Re istr
A/NIO/EUR
8APR86 25X1
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ROUTING AND RECORD SHEET
SUBJECT: (Optional)
Romania: Rumors About Gorbachev's Meddling
Assistant NIO or Europe
TO: (Officer designation, room number, and
building)
DDI Registry
VC/NIC Mr. Ford
VC/NIC Mr. Fuller
C/NIC
Ex.Reg. 9
DDC I (~~,;,,~
APR 196
OFFICER'S
INITIALS
-~CSC No. 8213-86
8 April 1986
COMMENTS (Number each comment to show from whom
to whom. Draw a line across column after each comment.)
~~ - ' . - .r
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