WHAT DO 42 WARS ADD UP TO?

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870024-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 23, 2012
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: April 27, 1986
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870024-5
WASHINGTON POST
27 April 1986
What Do 42 Wars Add Up To?
Less Than the Hardliners' Global Struggle With the Evil Empire
By Joanne Omang
A LOT of references are being
made in Washington to the
42 wars, rebellions or civil
uprisings supposedly going on
around the world at this very mo-
ment. This oddly precise number is
being used by hard-liners to argue
that the United States, intent on
preventing world nuclear holocaust,
has been outmaneuvered in the
Third World by the Soviet Union. A
planetful of one-alarm fires has
started, they argue, and must be
dealt with swiftly if the flames of
Soviet conquest are not to sweep
the world.
Defense Secretary Caspar Wein-
berger opened a January confer-
ence on low-intensity warfare with
this observation: "Tonight, one out
of every four countries around the
globe is at war," Weinberger said.
"In virtually every case, there is a
mask on the face of war.... Be-
hind the mask is the Soviet Union
and those who do its bidding."
Leo Cherne. vice chairman of the
l?' esid n 'c Foreign Intellig nc .
Advisory Board, icked up the _
t oua tin a e ruary speech to the
Defense Strategy Forum in Wash-
ington about intelligence require-
ments for the late 1980s. "Among
the 42 current conflicts involving
four million people engaged m wars,
rebellions or civil uprisings. few
nations have declared war upon an-
othPr he said "This ambiguity .. .
places a particular premium- upon
effective a igence.
Speaking to the World Affairs
Council of San Bernardino, Cal., in
late January, Fred C. Ikle, under-
secretary of defense for policy, not-
ed that "For 40 years the world has
been spared another global
war.... Yet today, one out of ev-
ery four countries around the globe
is at war." He said the "driving, or-
ganizing force behind it all" is the
Soviet Union.
This means that "containment
has been outflanked," Ikle said in a
recent interview, referring to the
West's policy of preventing Soviet
expansion beyond Eastern Europe
after World War II. "It worked in
Europe and it worked in Korea, but
it doesn't work in the Third World."
There have been other refer-
ences to the 42 wars-by former
United Nations Ambassador Jeane
Kirkpatrick and Sen. David F. Du-
renberger (R-Minn.), among oth-
ers-but no one has spelled out just
where the conflicts are.
Here is a list that is circulat-
ing at the Defense Depart-
ment, where no one person
or office claims authorship. It was
compiled from public sources and
not from secret intelligence data,
according to department officials,
who said the descriptions are only
shorthand and are not intended as
official pictures.
The list is also not completely
current, the sources said, and is
subject to change without notice. "If
I sat down and assembled a current
fiat. I would be amazed if the num-
ber were as low as 42," Cherne
said.
Condensed, the list goes:
^ Sub-Saharan Africa.
Angola. Insurgency; high-inten-
sity conflict.
Botswana. Low-intensity conflict;
cross-border operations involving
South Africa.
Burkina Faso. Intense conflict
with Mali over border; ceasefire
signed in early January 1986
Central African Republic. Low-in-
tensity conflict with dissidents in
north and Chadian commandos.
Chad. Insurgency; low-intensity
conflict with southern commandos
and Libyans.
Ethiopia. Insurgency; high-inten-
sity conflict with insurgents in Eri-
terea and Tigre plus border con-
frontations with Somalia.
Lesotho. Cross-border operations
with South Africa.
Mali. Intense conflict with Bur-
kina Faso over border; ceasefire
signed in early January 1986.
Mozambique. Insurgency; high-
intensity conflict.
Namibia. Low-intensity conflict
with South Africa.
Somalia. Low-intensity conflict
with dissidents and border confron-
tations with Ethiopia.
South Africa. Low-intensity con-
flict with insurgents.
Sudan. Low-intensity conflict
with dissidents in south.
Uganda. Low-intensity conflict
with dissidents.
Zaire. Low-intensity conflict with
dissidents in the east.
Zimbabwe. Low-intensity conflict
with dissidents in south.
^ Asia and the Pacific.
India. Border skirmishes with
Pakistan.
Pakistan. Small-unit actions on
Indian border; problems with
Afridis tribe; heavily armed bandits,
and airspace violations by Afghan
aircraft.
Sri Lanka. Tamil insurgent ac-
tivity.
China. Conflict on border with
the Soviet Union, and Vietnam.
North and South Korea. Cross-
border operations; intense psycho-
logical warfare.
Burma. Insurgent activity and
problems with narcotics traffickers.
Cambodia. Insurgents against
Vietnamese and Republic of Kam-
puchea forces.
Indonesia. Insurgent activity; oc-
casional border incidents with Pa-
pua New Guinea.
Laos. Problems with Hmong
tribe, former Nationalist govern-
ment troops, narcotics smugglers
and bandits.
Malaysia. Low-level Islamic dis-
sidence.
Papua New Guinea. Low-level
border conflict with Indonesia.
Philippines. Continued insurgent
conflict.
Vietnam. Forces occupying Cam-
bodia and Laos are engaged in coun-
terinsurgency.
^ Western Europe.
Ireland. Sectarian conflict.
^ Warsaw Pact/Eastern Eu-
rope/ Mongol is/Afghanistan.
Afghanistan. Protracted conflict
between Afghan resistance and So-
viets/Karmal regime.
WWW
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870024-5
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870024-5 s).
^ Latin America.
Colombia. Insurgency and acts of
terrori*a.
Ecu4or. Nascant terrorism; in-
surgency.
El Salvador. Active insurgency.
Guatemala. Active insurgency.
Nicaragua. Active insurgency.
Peru. Acts of terrorism; insur-
gency.
^ Middle East/North Africa/Per-
sian Gulf
Lebanon. Civil war; Syrian press
ence; conflicts with Israel.
Morocco. Conflict with Polisario
over control of Western Sahara.
Iran. War with Iraq; skirmishes
with Kurds.
Iraq. War with Iran; Skirmishes
with Kurds. -
South Yemen. Coup attempt.
The usual first response to
reading this list is immediate
protest of its accuracy.
Where is Israel? Surely it cannot
be called a nation at peace. And Lib-
ya is missing. Did we journalists
invent all that blood? Perhaps ter-
rorism has made the entire list ob-
solete, since it does not include any
nation in Western Europe, where a
lot of bombs have been going off
recently. Great Britain is absent,
although certainly a part of the Irish
conflict; Spain suffers bomb blasts
from Basque separatists; Kurdish
rebels fight in southern Turkey.
And can all these African nations
really be in flames? We thought con-
flict was even less than "low inten-
sity" in Botswana, not to mention
Lesotho and the Central African
Republic and Zaire. We thought the
cease-fire between Burkina Faso,
nee Upper Volta, and Mali had set-
tled matters there since the last
time we dreamed about visiting
Ouagadougou; why is it still on the
list?.
But a closer look at the list makes
one wonder whether it supports the
hard-line contention that it is a lit-
any of Soviet conflict with America.
By the military's own description,
many of the conflicts appear to have
no link to the communist,bloc in any
way. Others, such as the China-
Vietnam and China-Soviet conflicts
are fraternal battles between com-
munists. Burma and Laos involFe
drug traffic; Malaysia, Pakistan, In-
dia, Ireland are sectarian or reli-
gious; the battles involving
Africa and its neighbors are ra
ones. Many conflicts concern bq.?
der disputes. Just as all politics A
fundamentally local, no matter wI*
the cosmic implications, so most 4
these wars are local battles, despitb
the major powers' meddling.
Those who cite the list woucl
seemingly have us believe we aid
all missing World War III, just b`el-
cause it is not the kind we well
expecting. For that reason alorgi,
perhaps the most interesting fait
about this list is that neither the
Soviet Union nor the United States
is on it.
Joanne Omang covers diplomatic
affairs for The Washington Post.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/02/23: CIA-RDP90-00965R000504870024-5