LATIN AMERICA: NICARAGUA SEEN A BURNING FUSE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP90-00965R000100150062-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: K
• Document Page Count: 1
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 29, 2012
• Sequence Number: 62
• Publication Date: August 25, 1982
• Content Type: OPEN SOURCE

STAT - - - - -
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/29: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100150062-0
ARTICLE APPEARED
1.1)1.7 I7'ACITi:
T AST TTON ?OST
25 ;a3t 1982
Latin America:
Nicaragua Seen
A Burning Fuse
Central America is a powder keg
that could explode within the next
few months. The impact could make
El Salvador's civil war seem like a
backfiring automobile.
It could be precipitated by Nic-
aragua. The principal combatants
would be the leftist Sandinista re-
gime in Managua and its opponents
in exile in neighboring Honduras.
They already have had numerous
bloody clashes.
There is grave danger that the
skirmishes could precede open con-
flict between Honduras and Nicara-
gua. The Honduran forces, armed
with U.S. equipment, probably
would have a military edge over the
Sandinistas.
Nicaragua therefore might cali on
Cuba for help. The appearance of
Cuban soldiers would be countered
by increasing U.S. involvement. The
Cubans, of course, rely on the Soviet
Union for armaments. This could
bring a confrontation between the
United States and. the Soviet Union.
A principal catalyst in this explo-
sive equation is Jose Francisco Car-
denal, leader of the anti-Sandinista
Nicaraguan Democratic Force. He is
a former Nicaraguan businessman,
popularly known as "Chicano," who
organized opposition to the late dic-
tator Anastasio Somoza. After So-
moza's overthrow three years ago,
Cardenal served briefly as vice pres-
ident of the Sandinistas' council of
state.
In an interview with my associate
Jon Lee Anderson, Cardenal said he
quit his council post and took up
arms in exile because "Marxist-Le-
ninist elements had begun to mo-
nopolize what was supposed to be a
council representative of all sectors
of Nicaraguan society."
He said his force, which is already
conducting guerrilla operations in
Nicaragua, is composed of patriots
who want to rid their homeland of
its communist rulers.
Cardenal admitted that his troops
include former members of Somoza's
detested National Guard. "We take
anyone who comes to us as a Ni-
caraguan ready to fight," he ex-
pidined. "We have ex-guardsmen,
sure?just like we have ex-
Sandinistas."
The exile leader said he has 2,000
to 3,000 active fighters operating in
Nicaragua's northern province, and
clamed, "We have eight to 10,000
more waiting for the word inside
Nicaragua. They are under training
and waiting for the arms we shall get
to them."
"One doesn't negotiate with the
communists," he said. "You don't
win a war by tilking, you win it by
killing, and that is what we are do-
ing, every day, inside Nicaragua. We
will triumph, too. We will have Ma-
nagua in six months."
How can he be so confident?
There are whispers that Cardenal is
the principal beneficiary of the re-
ported $19 million in covert CIA
funds that President Reagan ap-
proved to destabWize Nicaragua.
Cardenal dem-es this. "Well take
money from any democratic institu-
tion or agency," he said. "We need
the U.S. government to help us with
political pressure. The CIA could
help us by relaying information back
yWashington. But their direct in-
volvement would hurt more than
help us because of their bad repu-
lawn in Latin America?
He would not specify the amounts
and sources of his arms supplies,
other than "several Latin American
countries." Sandinista diplomats in
Washington say Cardenal, and other
exile groups, are getting their arms
and funds directly from the Hondu-
ran military.
A Honduran official in Washing-
ton insisted that his country is tak-
ing a neutral position between the
contending Nicaraguan groups. "But
Nicaragua is trying to provoke a
war," he said. 'Mere have been a
series of violations of our territory."
Then he added an ominous warn-
ing: "If we are attacked, we'll attack."
And the chain reaction would begin.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/08/29: CIA-RDP90-00965R000100150062-0