TALKING POINTS FOR THE ADDI 12 FEBRUARY 1986 UPDATE ON LIBYAN ACTIVITIES

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP91B00874R000200080005-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 21, 2011
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: February 12, 1986
• Content Type: MISC

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/21: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000200080005-8
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Talking Points for the ADDI
12 February 1986
Update on Libyan Activities
Libyan forces have increased their alert level and reacted
energetically to the resumption of US activity in the Tripoli
Flight Information Region this week.
-- The Libyan Air Force conducted several dozen flights in
and north of the Gulf of Sidra after US flight .
operations commenced in the area on 12 February. At
least five pairs of Libyan fighter.. aircraft were
intercepted by USN F-14s and F-18s.
-- The air reaction so far is similar to that seen in the
first.. days of US Navy operations in the Tripoli FIR last
month. The activity contrasts with the later stages of
the Libyan reaction to the FIR operations in late
January, when Libyan interceptors were forbidden to
approach US fighters outside the Gulf of Sidra.
-- Libyan warships remain dispersed among several ports,
with only a few at sea. None have yet approached Sixth
Fleet ships off Libya.
The Libyan Political Situation
Qadhafi has not been able to exploit the current tensions
with Washington to significantly improve his internal position.
few Libyans expect
the US to attack Libya and that.most Libyans--in the
armed forces and general public--remain dissatisfied
with the re ime
most Libyans feel that they o not
have anything worth fighting for.
2.5X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/21: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000200080005-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/21: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000200080005-8
one benefit of the
crisis to Qa a i is the suspension of the bitter
factional infighting that has troubled his regime. since
last fall. We expect renewed infighting, however, after
the US threat is perceived to have receded.
Qadhafi has been only marginally more successful in the
international arena. He has scored a propaganda and diplomatic
victory.-by posing as a Third World David facing the American
Goliath, but most of the diplomatic support he has received--even
in the Arab World--is rhetorical.
-- The Arab League refused to endorse Libyan demands for a
boycott of the US, and fewer than half of the League's
foreign ministers attended the emergency session in
Tunis.
-- Other international fora--e.g. the Non-Aligned Movement,
OAU, and UN--at most have issued only pro forma
condemnations of US actions.
We see no evidence of a slowdown in Libyan support for
terrorism and subversion.
Economic Impact of US Sanctions
The freeze on Libyan financial assets has had the greater
impact among the various US economic restrictions imposed last
month.
-- Libya lost immediate access to an estimated $700
million--about 13 percent of total foreign exchange
holdings prior to the freeze--and has been unable to pay
off some outstanding bills.
-- Tripoli's attempts to circumvent the freeze have met
with little success.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/21 : CIA-RDP91 B00874R000200080005-8
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/21: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000200080005-8
Most US firms have left Libya or turned their operations
over to foreign subsidiaries.
About
100 to
150
US
citizens remain in Libya and
of family ties.
probably
will
stay
because
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/12/21: CIA-RDP91 B00874R000200080005-8