OSS - OBSERVATIONS ON GERMAN LABOR/STUDY ON THE ORGANIZATION OF GERMAN THINKING/ESTABLISHING CONTACTS WITH CATHOLIC ORGANIZATIONS IN GERMANY FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SOCIAL ORDER AFTER MILITARY DEFEAT OF GERMANY, 1945
Document Type:
Collection:
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST):
CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Release Decision:
RIFPUB
Original Classification:
S
Document Page Count:
140
Document Creation Date:
November 3, 2016
Document Release Date:
October 21, 2013
Sequence Number:
8
Case Number:
Publication Date:
August 30, 1945
Content Type:
MISC
File:
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CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7.pdf | 35.74 MB |
Body:
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3) August 1945
lir dear Has
I WI* the attached memorandum with recard
to sag* obaiervations x3ersen Isbor sulcdtted b7 one
of otm analysts win be or interest to the President.
nu 'Wms see' that- it :machos his cleat"
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PagarJEZIT:
sfALRET
Atl.uat 1515
o stete d in acme obsemtions on clermen labors
by one or x. best rosident analrats
itni on wrrownt ars
olet it ia teported that lacal i3 ofricials
hcole do= wIdoIrstanaAg dud intelligent job" of enemmag nil. union
ornstiam4 Uov that pormisolom t6' turn trade unions on a Krois love1
mar b* grouted 14**11y. sme offiliale aro bringinc uniou quickly to
liroto Ili olawr ocalitiess Mositionop roluotance have delayed of
Mid spa*ThoNral trade union situation *Lill remaix otty".
3. taro is GA slootit'inatitioUive trend tomer! a single
i trade Litt= mcmelAnt Instead of seireml moves:ants*
!A tbe rormstion eunionst there ozlets a differmaoe
-MNP 43142 444 othsr monesik rits American, theory Itas been
4itstioa sho44 stsrt from belomrulth slootioa of shop stevards
smitsblisbnal of the urthia,* ?hm Ruanians work in
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5. Moths? difforenee in approaoh is the Russian requiremnt
that the head of VI* railroads trOd0 attiOn and the Roiehabahndirektor
mastJ4xenrolls all important railway nossures? The workers are
obviously interested in a oontinuaaoo o: this practise* ;ihothor the
weitiee Ilens expanded to other indastrims in the "Alssian zone is not
klowm?
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EtAistaso work in roma orb d ne shop elections until the union
is *stab:lashed on top* Thera say bit little aatual dieforonce awe
potaatial trodamunion leaders and shopietiewaxds maintain unofficial
eastut *ma rend*? mutual
Anatol? diftftence approstah is the Russian requirement
tbs* of the railroads trade union and the Reiehshahndirektor
mostg,;tiprovrar all imovtanI railway *mum* The unrkere
*r* emit, interested in a contamance of this practice* dhother
the prookleo has expandied to othor ird113t1*ie tt the Russian zone
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Thank you tor letter at 2 Aveust 1145 *Ali
mosseresalhaa on, Serial lumber Analysis which accOrapanied it.
a maim that..t* have an opplety to aback accurately
to of a theoretical *640,Iniqtas of eeononde
vas have in this iniatoriaa, ant tha:results Ira*
atiittrilnir -
La you know terestact in anapurigging
boa, itiona output Troy
t this information
field or in
son with the
Mrs Rustics and
O no* given the opportunity,
vies the neOessiu9
04.:0104 'that or
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? recall that PSA
serial number work*
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THE FOREIGN SERVICE
OF THE
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Tzilaimiet ) es t
IP oct..x+ cC.
X ,
Ic6.A.
E.O.U.1 AMERICAN EMBASSY visit tr
40, BERKELEY SQUARE, LONDON, W. I .
TELEPHONE GROSVENOR 49t.
t
Major-General William J. Donovan,
Office of Strategic Services,
MAARINGTON,
Dear General Donovan:
August 2 1945
I ma taking the liberty of forwarding a copy
or a report on the accuracy of serial number studies
an German production prepared in this office by four
members of R. & A., OBS - Capt. Fred Peels lit. Henry
body (U.S.S.R.), Mr. Richard Ruggles and Capt.
IMIliam Parker, The first three of these men, who
did most of the work in preparing the original studies
from 1943 through 19445 and who have prepared the
enclosed study, have returned to R. & A., Washington.
Capt., Parker remains attached to the OBS Mission to
Germany
Speaking as an PISA man who ha& worked closely with
00M, I think that the mua higher accuracy shown in the
studies prepared by this group than in the studies
prepared by other agencies using the same techniques
Alyea OSS real cause to feel proud of a fine contribution
made La aid not only of the Air Forces but of people
soisaged In predicting the probable or4er of battle
104rength of ground forces before Ind after the invasion.
s seems to me to be particularly true When I recall
OW Obstructions and difficulties placed in the way of
ass* of We 'malt by representatives of some very
boadmmarters not the least of which was G-2,
ahlsigton?
. 1 mm sending the report to you directly because I am
amp. you vill sant to exaXine it and keep the results in
gdmill in conneetion with your interest in the application
of *Ullar techniques in :span.
$ino?r.l ou
4k4Axa
Xz4Tn t Pincus
Neport ial twtb*r Analysis as an Intelligence
Teahniquelp dated 111, July 1945?
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ANERICXX EMBASSY
40 Berkeley Square, London
AN INTEL IG
SECRET
A report on tbe aeouraay of ostimates
at production of Gorman adlitarr equipment,
prepared by tb* Iconomio Warfare Division,
Alieriean Xabassi from serial nurdbere and
ether markings.
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TAM IC GUNS ON TANK CHASSIS
Tanks it To till Pr oduc t ion
Assault Guns on Tank Mass's,
ProductioA by Plant
Tank Output Intimates *sed c
Markings
Conclusions
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The purpose of this paper is to assess as far as
possible the accuracy of the production estimates of
enemy military equipment based on the direct evidence
of serial numbers and other markings on the equipment.
Front the summer of 1943 to March, 1945 the Economic
Warfare Division of the American Embassy issued
intelligence reports based on the analysis of markings.
In general these reports contained three types of
analysis.
1. Aggregate output data by time period for specific
types of military equipment.
2. Pipeline analysis, that is, length of time
between manufacture and use at the front, of
specUic types of military equipment.
'Production by individual manufacturers of
specific types of military equipment.
The direction of the investigations Was guided
partly by the availability of the data, and partly
by the needs of the intelligence consuming agencies.
Often markings were procurable which could have
ielded considerable information, but for which the need
id not warrant the expenditure of effort. Again,
some subjects were of considerable interest but the
effort which would have been required in the :told
to obtain the noceseAry markings was beyond what this
organization could muster. Some work was done on all
of the following Items:
1 Tanks
2, AsvAult O1A3
3* Malrftiracks
4* Guns ,
5* Motor YehloIes
6* Tires
7# tlyint lombe
8. RoCkote
90 Ammunition
t of the individual plant figures used to check
the serial nulhor estimates were obtained by a field
at out for the purpose. Some plant output
preg wore furnished bi- the United States Strategic
eibiaSurvey4 be checks against ovor-all production
Ve nishod by the production statistics captured
ip OM Os Spoor Ministry',
#10 f--A*vidual German factories
Mut ti ; , ,e1,,rf4 used by BO
.6Clate4otony Ooduotion was in fectOorreot#
divrogne nuabtroll both components and finished
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equipment serially, They used the serial numbers as
contras of the individual units as they were being
produced and as records for the purpose of repairs,
spars parts, and defecttve pieces of equipment. They
neither skipped numbers nor used numbers more than
once. There is no indication that the Germans suspected
that serial numbers were a source of information to
us, It Is interesting to note in this connection
that the Germans themselves estimated the production
of Russian tanks by using serial numbers.
This report examinee the accuracy of the estimates
of tanks, assault guns, half-tracks, motor vehicles,
tirstoo guns, flying bombs, and rockets. No check is
possible on the studies on enemy arammition, which
contained no estimates of output but simply reported
the pipeline of ammunition of various calibers which
was captured in Italy and Prance.
A general presentation of all the estimates for
vihich mparable actual data exists is given in
Chart I, Hero each estimate and the corresponding
actual data are plotted on a scatter diagram. Those
estimates which are correct lie on the 450 line.
Only those estimates which aro individual and
lated to each ether have been plotted. Thus the
yearly estimates by type or model have boon used
rather than the aggregate figures. In this way the
data is shown in its most critical light since in
cumulative figures the serial number estimats errors
tend to balance out and any one large error is easily
absorbed,
It is interesting to note that all large errors
ef serial nuMber estimation wore errors of under-
eictimation? Por over 90% of all the estimates,
however, the errors aro not of sufficient magnitude
to impair the validity of the analysis.
'be reaord of the serial number estimates, as
*hewn in Chart I and in tha subsequent studios of
'ash, type of equipment enhanced, proves that the
mothod of analysis employed Is a valid and valuable
source of oconeftic intelligence* Within the range
of its eapabilities the technique of utilizing
markings talon directly from enemy equipment is
tratiottely superior to the nore abstract methlde of
esttmktild productIon, mach at reconciling tho often
etilely divergent prisoner of war re-ports, basing
estimate* on pre-war capabili/los,, or prclsoting
trestle in protuotion on estimates of the gtmers1
3.0t*1 et adomemlo utilisation of resources Ln an
soustry. All at these methods wore used at
ei meet times by slliod intelligence OVV041.01
reeultie that do not teor coopurison with those
timid trot, the analyst) or settle. numboro,
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For Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
TANKS AND GUNS ON TANK CHASSIS
The first preliminary study of German tank production
based on an analysis of serial numbers was issued in
July, 1943. This origintl investigation was extended
and revised in a series of subsequent reports issued
through March, 1945, which covered produotion of tanks
and assault guns by types and makers and calculations
of the pipeline from apsembly to front line use.
Tanks, Total Production
Table I, below, summartzes the tank output estimates
by year and by typo and comparesthem with production
figures obtained from the Speer Ministry. Total
annual tank production is presented in graphic form
Is Mart II. Estimates are from the 1 January, 1944
study, tbo 27 3eptember, 1044 study, and extensions
amil corrections made in later papers. The biggest
error In estimating annual tank production vias for
1040, 'hers output was overestimated 39%. All the
other yearly over-all tank production estimates are
less Own 16% in error.
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TABLE
A Comparison of Tank Production letimates
from Serial Numbers with Speer Ministry
Etatisties, by Year and by Type,
1940-1944, with the Peroentage Error
.,, by Year
Estimate
of
Mark I & II
Mark III
Mark IV
3$ (t)
300
870
400
380
'741
300
900
450
380
1,950
34%t
9
895
2CC
275
2,030 1,459
Corrections Speer Ministr-j-
of statistics.
R2.2221112.11:.
Mark IIX
Mirk III
Mark IV
36 ( t)
**teiI
Mark III
Mark IV
Mirk VI
311
TOTAL
PACO
240
1 930
460
100
Matimato
of
ujI
Corrections Speer Ministry
of Statistics
27 Nov:1944.
021,
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1944
TABLE (Cont)
Estimates Speer Ministry
Statistics.
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Mirk rit 2 March045-3,300
Nhrk V 27 Jan, 45 -3p200
*ark V/ (1)
(1st 6 mths) 27 Sept,44 - 475
IM
TOTAL -67375
ERROR 1344; -
Table II and Chart iir classify the tank produc-
tion estimates by type and compares them with the
3peer Ministry statistics. In all cases the latect
output estimate for a given year has been used. The
total error In ostimating each tank type has been
expressed As a percentage of the correct figure. The
estimatets covered in Table /I are only those for which
Spier AllnistrT figures are available for comparison.
Limitations, on the data available made it necessary to
express estimates in the 1 January, 1944 study in terns
of *Probable* nnd "Maximum" az a this classification
has been carried over in Table II. The estimates
roprasentod in Chart III are the "Probable" estimates.
3,366
3,964
553
17;P
TABLE
It
A Comparison of Tank Production Estimates
from Sarial Numbers with Speer Ministry
Untistics, by Type, 1940-19440 with
Percentage Error by
Date of Most ? Estimate Speer
Recent letimate*Probable Maximum Ministry
.qtatistiqs
AlMimii..???????????
MgtX la 1940 1 Jan. 1944.
1041
1042 0
INMElp 194 0-42
Mgt
SW 1040 1 Jon. 1944.
1041
1040
tOtia., 1940-42
MOIR
III 11040 1 An. 1944.
1041 0
1040.
1943 27 3lopt.1444.
101101., 1040444
WO 1 1044
*
*I? 11.119.10Af.
2 Mar. ZIPies
* 4E 44
300
295
240
835
53%.
380
480
480
773;re
15%.
870
1,530
14930
4
1%m
400
4$0
'060
1470*
500 9
480 233
420 306
1,400 548
155% 4,
940
2,100
2,700
400
romra
feg
480 280
650 480
960 964
2,700 3,073
300 366
4
275
698
195
7740,n-
895
1,845
2,555
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TABLE II (Cont)
,201 Year Date of meat Estimate Speer
recent eatImate. Probable Maximum Ministry
Statistte:-.
41.0.11?11.11.46~010111411.1131~1111011101011.111.1104104111101191111MINIS
Mark V 1943 27 Nov. 1944
1944 27 :an. 1945
TOTAL, 1243-44
IRROR
Mirk li/(11, 1942 27 Sept. 1944.
1943 27 Sept. 1944.
Zan-JUn.44" "
TOTAL, 1942-June, 1944
WOR
2,050
200
10% -
100
650
475
`17117rm-
4% -
1,650
.547=3 964
??
1
vs
78
647
553
7727c.7?
The only attempt made to estimate tank output more
closely than by year was with the Mark V. In the
27 Januery, 1945 study, Murk V production in 1944 was
broken down by quarters. Table III compares these
quarterly estimates with quarterly output figures from
the Speer Minifitry,
PALM
A Comparison of Quarterly Mark V Tank Production
aLitit_tiaten Al..jaLtt.La or jtatistios 1944
lett/tate Speer Percentage
Ministry Error
27 Jan titatieties
1q44.
Aprellosio
Alr?liopt?
Ostsi?Dets.
000
720
030
1, 05
8$1
29%
10070
334
1,102
16%
941
12%
-
The perenta. of error for the first half year ts
large a while the trend In productIon Wee estimated
correctly for the first three quartern, the oottninteo
fatted to not* thc drop in output in tho last quartor,
4110?3L.mAIMJAZ"PlAteall.A.4121,06.1 1j...."1-(1.11,91122
Teltio IV below, compare* tho toUl annual assault
r atiorseschhts estimates wIth tbe figwiee from thu
Ministry' The estimate of 1043 oturingescatz
tn the 21 3ept. 1964 study wad not an ovorall
* rOr Iisseu14, oun production and included only two
!no* for Which emaperatle tieuves Are avuilablo, tho
Sgotts.142 on SMu TIT ctessii and the Hornet.
A01410/411400 the 1043 Mures from the Spoor Ministry
is sivon Par only those typeet
and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
TABLE IV
A Comparison of Stur eschhtz Production Estimateo From
er a 'umbers w er-IMW"firriVETTET67,--
0,81110CINIMPWIMINM.e.POIMMININ
Year Date of Moat Estillte peer Yerotalta2
InimEntati- Ministr 'Irirriavr
=A ? S & 3 03
18% -
18% -
71% -
62% -
NO estimate of assault gun production in 1944 was made
except for the Jagd-Panther. Jagd-Panther production
In 1944 was estimated in the a7 Jan, 1945 study to be
100. Actual production was 215.
1940
1 Jan.
1944
150
184
1941
1 Jan.
1944
450
550
1942
1 Jan.
1944
600
2,076
1943
27 3ept.1944
1,400
3,708
? r
?
S
...E.'24129.1141221224mt
At the time of the 1 Jan. 1944 study there waa not
sufficitimt data to allow a division of tank and 3turm-
geschi4tz production between plant:?. However, eight tank
essembly plants were listed with the models they had
produced through 19.2. Six elf these factories have been
visited and their production records did include tho
=dela Identified with them in the 1 Jan, 1944 study.
In the report of 27 Sept. 1944 seven assembly firms
were listed with the 1943 production which had been
linked with them. However, these figures were not
presented as the total output of these plants because
in tho case of every model except the Tiger there was
a residue of production on which the data was not
sufficiently complete to allow assignment to a firm.
Th this study one error was made -- the assignment of
Niark V production under tho code "cse to Henschel. In
the 27 Jan. 1945 report on Mark V/3 this was ehanged
end this code NeW wan correctly identified as MNH,
Mannover. All Tiger production was correctly assigned
to gonschel? Kassel,.
Mark V production in 1944 was divided among three
Witemblers in tho 27 Jan. 1946 report. This distribu-
tion in poreentass terms, compared with the actual
Vercentele of total production of tho same three firms,
Vowed on their own production figures, is as follows:
,
Ti
,
4
r
Of
Tt,
rallallta Correct
14A.N. 40% 35%
Duiraor Dom 20 31%
ccx, 284% 31%
UnPnown 3% 3%
Tin a mmormnMm issuod 16 October, 1943 it wam
that al tho direct evidence available pointed
Vohe ontine proftcers it that time for Mark I,
ZU VT tarlas---Soltacit, Priedrichnhafen
40A Ocolin. rnyeatil stion of Gorman tank
1 t ha* abowilthat his Statement was correct.
?
I
e?ta,
r1
Aig
12:$ -
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
" ft
_
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Tank out Alt Estimattis Besed_ Wheek..slaulaine
In the sumer of 194:4 the demand for estimates of
tank output at a time when little recent chassis
number data was available led to the use or a complex
technique for deriving a roll& approximation of tank
production from the mold numbers on tank bogio wheel
tires. By taktng th4 bogto wheel tire markings from a
all number of tnks, estimating the nuMbor of molds
for each tire to (the sizo varied with the tank type),
applying British experience to arrive at the monthly
capacity of cachmold, and ostimating the rate of
wastage of the tires an estimato of the magnitude of
tank chassis assembly of a given type which could occur
*bout two months after the date of tire production was
arrived uts Thia method of analysis resulted in a
fteuro for the capacity for production in a given month,
not for actual production.
While this technique cculd not be expected to
produce estimate* a* accurate us those obtained from an
adequate sample of ehassis zearbox, engine, and gun
serial numbers from the tank$i tha results were
surprisingly sood4 rntimated monthly rates of tank
production twasQd on thia method and the comparable-
figures from the Speer Ministry are given In Table V.
TOLL...y
Coa ion IthrkIN. anA VI. Mort1111. Ta X Production
oirro7rnibiqa ee
7 r r.
ZDIM24. 1t to t mntod 1.etUal
orar_Tr? MEM'
iMpTion T7701735 ion
i heat
onTEr
IT;172uo ,ion
:ErViro=
Mark XV Aug. 1042 100 00 (average for 1942) ?
Mark TV Fob, 19f3 4100 252 388
Nark V PO. 194:4 270 276 299
Mark V/ Nob. 1004Z 20 32 32
Mark VI Ally 1W,t, 60 65 85
A11 the estimat4s aro quite ?lose exeept the
Nark IV estimAto for robe MM.. Production in this
month was far bnInw tho peak f." '*..v that had already
boon ottftifti-1 IN *4` 1- * llogio wheel
mothod was 'Tory exollratiq 11A r:n9lt it co, u- -,4,4-4morstAd
productive eapanit7 for each typo of tank,
has te3113
Investig,4tion, of tho Irar*ering systems used by
assoMblors and onglno and gearbox makors has
etralrmed tho theZ7 of tank serial nuAboring upon
tha talak and onurragelacAtz estimates wore based,
imietGt th6 imrt*tionn whtlh occurrod between the tank
00%Saittos and th-1 truu pro4uetion figures aro not a
tolleatIon on tho adequacy of the toqhniquos of
agodysiAs omplopid bir4 rAtIlor refilct the limitations
tbn 641ft n/Ail bl,a for interpTetation.
-ed?
4.54,
7.4
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
-
-
,
ravf
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
The 1942 estimate of sturmgescAtz output was badly
in error because the data received from the field did not
cover a multitude of assault gun models which were being
produced on a small scale. Since adequate coverage for
these models Was impossible, it was felt that estimates
made for later yoars should not attempt to present any
over-all figure for tank and assault gun production.
Tho record of the tank serial number estimates is
extremely good in comparison with other estimates made
by Allied intelligence agencies. Table VI below, is a
comparison of estimated averege monthly production
rates for 19400-42 from serial estimates and from
Munitions Record No. 24, 10 Aug. 1942, with the
corresponding figures from the Speer Ministry. The
estimates from Munitions Record No. 24 were furnished
to G-2 by 0.S,S. and represented the opinion of
noo agencies at that time, both in Washington
and in t Ministry of Economic Warfare, London.
TABLE V;
nieIt?1Aknce ources,
all IetimAted Monthly Production Monthly Production
54m111 Ntuier INEITIFET- Roo', M1nitxy
Istimato Aoltord
27 Sitpt, 441 10 Aug. 2
Atm* 1940 169 1,000
'Was, 1941 244 1,550
Aft., 1942 327 1,500
att"!
ULIaL=
A rnr Rele'ase 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
122
271
342
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Production of Gorman half..tracka was estimated by
type end by aasmibler for the year:: from about 1938
through 1942 and the motor vehicle production report,
April, 1944, Theme estimates wore extended, with minor
oorrections iA the 1941 and 1942 figures, in "German
flalf-Track Production, 1941-1944", issued 9 March, 1945.
Table VII,. below, gives a comparison of the total
halt-track estimates from 1941 through 1944 with Spoor
Ministry stutistics for trio same rars. Total yearly
estimates vary in accuracy from .2% to 155.
TABLE VI;
. arisen or Total Annual Half-Track Production Estimates
era ors rgIreeThrtra'F--"TreTaFF=TrIT:777,;.
tstimiktos
of
9 March 45
2941 7,850
2042 9,S00
1943 17,000
1944
1%4,0.01941-44 40,900
Table VittobeXow compares the estimates with Spoini
fisures by typo and y yoar wherevor comparable figures
are available&
.2112112 ality1442122
Percent 3 a 0
rror
104
1041
1,42
1944
190
Tamil
1241
1142
44
comparable
45
48
45
ApV1I
(Mo
0 March
9 arch
9 Marh
April
0 Woh
9 Marah
I *roil
4 March
660
gwou nva
00
7,060
00
300
300
300
N110
0
3,090
ilablo)
4,200
5,024
10?11,101
1,076
ilablo)
2,762
0,51)3
0 100
340
300
564
003
'720
-71
norinQQifiad and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
t..
n.s.Pre
11
"
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
TABLE VIII (cont;
ZAE2. Year DtIte of Estimate Estimate aw.414.21a Percent-
8 -ton 1941 9 March -15
1942 9 March 45
1943 9 Mhrch =15
1944 9 March -s5
Total
t 1940 April 44
1941 9 March 45
1942 9 March f5
1943 9 March 45
1944 9 March 45
Total
18-ton 1941 9 March 45
1942 9 March .;5
1943 9 Mareh
1944 9 March 45
Total
1?,1.50
1,650
3,300
-444?
volluv
550
800
850
400
400
7.7666--".
250
300
650
750
a 8 C8 042
trrer
1,320
1,392
3,231
3298
9,261
516
828
840
507
? 602
240
384
643
'834
7(;t;
9%.
7e,
While a complete rocord of half-track production by plants
is not avsilablo, dcta has been 4:o11ected which covors, at
1**st partially, tho production record of eight firms. These
*tatistlea were collected princi;pally at tho plants themselves.
7tb2Ie a contaln* a conparison o! thoso figures with the
estimates by plant ft.= surtal mirbor dr4ta.
TABLE IA
ft't3On ci alf-Truck Prodwtion Eltimates for Nine Firms
UA u TgUr65 1.T44.
0111
.1= Year Date of EstimE.to Estimated rti*Aue Percentam
-11112-- lout 277O7'
'500 832
1,000 933
800 844
900 983
1,400 10695
(no lascs) 0
250 165
500 554
1,250 1,361
10600 2i.133
3-,t0rs z-,71m
2,400 2,210
3 200 4 063
MI I, ton 1939 A 44
1940 April 4:4
1941 9 Mhrch 45
1942 V March45
1043 ) March 46
1944 9 Mnrch45
Total
n 1941 0 March 45
1942 0 March 45
190 0 March 45
1944 9 MArch 45
Total
3wton 1943 9 March 45
194A'. 9 March 45
TotAl
ton 1944 9 March 45
SIPA*
mtion 1944 I March 45
1044 9 March 45
tort 1945 0 March 46
10/ .:44&ch
TI01213
1,400 1,173
300 468
(no casco) 0
300 370
(no oamos) 0
.._
PAW
41.
06110 . oia9 Lpril 44 200 167
1940 April 44 300 202
1041 0 4arch, 45 300 329
042 0 hiarch 46 300 343
1043 q Aaraft 45 (Ao ovidonco or 204
Production)
"444 o atroh 55 ft 22
Tets1 --rarozr- Ar7,r7 le%
,k
kk1
OW
134
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
T2r-k1k0.p-
Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Zia 27,21
TABLE LX (oont)
PaimietimmatjaptikEta Estimated True Porcenta o
:7011170.4mixt rror
Banomag3-iton 1940 April 44
,1941 9 March 45
1942 4 Stroh 45
1943 9 March 45
1944 9 Unroh 45
Total
&sues.
Maffei 8-ton 1944 9 March 45
*moor 1304ton 1944 9 March 415
Wilms 18-ton 1041 9 March 45
1942 9March 45
1943 9 March 45
1944 9 March 45
Total
?
900
600
'800
1i700
7 0
15151
907.
1,136
1,577
1'720
ttzr"
4%.'
1,100 1,177 '70
1,000 1,005 .5%
50 10
60 106
150 179
(no cases) 25
Sio 22%
Nalt-track chassis numbers wore in simple consecutive
series for each firm and each typo. Production in succoeding
years foIlowod tn tho same serial number bands. Correct
analysis was, therefore, merely a matter of establishing
the location of each yearts output in the number band.
MI* bitable somewhat mere difficult for 1943 and 1944 whet
the Otrmana ceased putting the year of production on the
chassis nameplates Thereafter the chassis had to be dated
by dates appearing on other components. Such errors as
occurred were due to n falluro to get enough numbers to
locate definitely the terminals of each year's production,
This is vest apparent In the case of the 6-ton halt-track,
Where the upward trend in production could not bo detected
because the whole analysis for 19400.1944 was bnsed on only
11 cases. In this asset it ws felt, however, that it was
bettor to give an approximation of the magnitude of output,
even If it were not accurate* Li order to present a
*complete picture of halfwtrock production in all sizes.
4A';i?o?-4%:
'4, I
AgiiMOONOMMMINW
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001 Rnnni nn97n (1(1527
_
?
Nw
a
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
trer
ART ILL-MY
Two reports on gun output wore issued on the basis
of serial numbers* :Production of the 7.5 cm. Pak 40 wns
estimated for 1942 and the first quarter of 1943 in a
study issued 15 March, 1944;* Production of the 5 cm.
Pak 36 VA3 estimated for 190-1942 on 20 May, 1944. In
addition to these two reports, output of the 7*5 cm.
Mok 40 11/48 was estimated for 1944 as an aid in arriving
at the production of Mark IV tanks in the Mark IV report
of 2 Maroh, 1945 and output of the 7.5 cm* Kwk 42 L/70 for
the Mark V tank wai estimatod for 1943 and January-August,
1044 and for 1943 and 1944 in the Mark V reports of
27 November, 1944 and 27 January, 1945,
Ultimates for the three 7,5 cm* guns listed above cun
be checked, in part, against Spoor Ministry Staiistics*
The comparison ill as follows:
2121 Year MALUINA.,t014 Actual p229,1214a2
WITATIZITIiin Production rror
7,5 cm. Pak 40 1942 2,200 2,112 4%
7*5 cm. Kirk 40 1044 3000 30360 2% -
7.5 cm. Zwk 42 Jan-Aug#44 2.0200
7.5 or. Xwk 42 1944 3,340 4,210 205 -
Intimates of gun production wore not carried out on
4 'aria scale because it was felt that they were not of
sutficient interest. The above figures, however, arc
sufficient to show that the serial number teohnique is
applicable to this trim) of equipment,
41.1%
1I-71 14P4A..*!,
naf.inccifia.ri and Anoroved For Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
jelf
r-
_ . ?
- st ?+.14,
-7-
v?t)
.4-
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
11?ffiNgr-NE
Me first report on German motor Vehicle production
based on aerial numb,tr analysis was issued 16 October,
1943 and contained preliminary figures for nine
manufacturers. A comprehensive study of motor vehicle
production W*3 put out in April, 19426. This included
estimates of output by type and by maker for Germany
and Occupied Surope In order to present a picture of
tho ontire industry, rough estimates of production by the
French plants and by the smaller German firms were
Included and were based on ground intelligence where
adequate serial numbIrdata was not available. The
April, 1444 study oovercd production from 1940 through
19,42.? This waa the last motor vehicle study issued.
An esttmoto of Volkswagen production through May, 194?4
WAs mod* in a set of Intelligence Notes issued 5 August,
1044.
oc
It has not boon possible to find statistics on German
motor 'reticle production of all types for comparison with
the serial number estimates. There aro, however, Spoor
NimiStry figures covering German truck production in 19,12
sod they compare with the truck production estimates fro.0
'Atrial numbers as follows:
Mt
tileitt ?ruck
Medium Trmek
tilractit
INstal
ri&bg S'eer Ministr
as paitillal
rror
14,436 15(1 ?
53,439 17;IJ T
11,962 55% 4.
ID.0041?40,11.11?01
/9,827 22% 44,
16,500
62,300
lah400
97,300
"_-1.1.112.17
sons-atent tendoney to overestimate which is shown
OP* does not appear in a comparison of estimates with
soteal tivarioa for indtvidual plants. Xt le posaible
SW t 3peer fieuros cover only truck production for
*tlftsryuss and do not include output for the civilian
oessomy. This suspicion 13 strengthencel by the teat that
the some $peer Ministry figures for 1944 production are
semeistelmtl, slow the figures given in a German motor
uotten plan for 1944 (dated 27 September,
Apr a., Speer figures for the medium truck in 1?
SVO 24 below those even ti n the above-mentioned plan.
lant
uction statistics frm Opel, Daimler,tBonz
ilie p
V. end Volkswn are available for comparisou
*vial numb*? oettmetse# Those are presented
42401 X42Y below,
IW
?
cd,
4 St
?
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
, -
???
'dr
Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
TABLE X
it of Dalzaler-Benz Motor Vehicle
i?
1941 Light Truck
Medium Truck
Heavy Truck
?Manger Car
Total
Total Error : 10% -
1942 Total* 18,000
Total Savor -
Ds tiller -bons produo t tort was not estimated by type
r840
1941
1942
ToUrl
Total I
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
TABLE XII/
son of Volkswa en Production of Type $2 Joo with
LJ
OI or 0M0
Year
Batlisate
A7 i9
1940 1,000
1,41 5,000
1142 9,000
1943
1IJ5P0
Total Tr-F-tat
Total Irror: ?3 ...,
TABLE XIV
of Volkawa on Production of Am
rent%
MO 0
ICstimato
r-l"
aidiuraja 1944.
1942
1943
TOts1
Total arrort t
getawastin
000
Actual
Pi6TUFETon
853
4,634
8,776
Atila.402
32 6 ?2
hibioue Joe a With
Actual
FaraTon
698
7.806
?
notor vehicle aortal number extimatos were
alasessM1 in giving an Approximation of the) magnitude of
Slerson truck production, This 31100048 is striking in
'IOW of the previously-held opinion of intelligenoe
steseles that German truck production WA3 in the
awidlibourhood of 200,000 velUclese On the individual
p2as4 1.101,1 the estimates, insofar es they can bo chocked,
were reftely accurate in assessing the relative
e of the firms And in listing the types they
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X0-0001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
TIRES
?
The rirst report employing the serial number method
to estimate j.roduOtion was 'IAxis Europe's Tire Industry,"
issued in Oct 'era 1043. This report included pneumatic
tire output data on German factories, a general study of
types, StiZeSs and rubber composition of tiros, and estimates
the pipeline between goro tire manufacture and use in
theatres of operation?all based on direct evidonce from
tire markings. In *Tire Production in Germany and Occupied
luropo*? Julys 104,, the tire production estimates were
expamded to include every plant in Germany and every country
in Occupied Swope through the end of 1942 or the first
quarter of 1943. Output was also ostimated by size on the
basis of the tire mold markings. A separate paper,
eltimating the yearly rate of rubber consumption in enemy
torritory was put out 12 ally, 1944. An analysis of trend;
in the proportions of natural and synthetic ',libber used in
tires in 1942 and early 1943 was Issued 15 September, 1944.
Istel ttztaslan
The Jialys 1944 study estimated monthly production of
truck, passenger ear, and aero tires in Germany in the first
quarter of 1943. The following is a comparison of these
cstimates with Spoor Ministry statistics for average monthly
production In all of 1943:
Truck and
rammer Cu'
Aire
Total
timated Avera e
147,000
.121E22
titt4ra...6.1vrwLia o Percentm2
on on ro uction riTriar-
159,700
.21.1.22
Iffd.100
The estimated yearly rate of rubbor consumption for
Oormam7 nd Occupied 'Europe was arrived at by taking the
serial nuMber estimates of tire production, breaking the tire
estput into size groups on the basis of the nunber of nolds
in use far eaah size, and multiplying the output by thG
wai404 of rubber In a representative size for each size group.
Altar Wang an allowance for rubber used to retread tires,
the ratio of rubber use in pneumatic tires to rubber for
ether wise in Oteet Britain was applied to Oermany, giving
a figura of 1360000 tons for total annual enemy rubber
aonsumetion? Ithis figure of 135,000 tons wan based on late
1,42 and corll 104Z tire output estimates. Actual enemy
POUT consumption, from the files of /.04 Farben, was
136,000 tons in 1942 and 141,600 tons in 1943. The
estimated consumption on the basis of serial number data,
than, VGA *flow the 1942 figure and 0 below the 1943
figures
.VAILWAIUMAXALMI
The. 4m1y :irm for wh h complete monthly production
figure* covortnr, the period of the estimates could be
Attained. vas CorOinental. Monthly output of the Hannover
plant of Continental from 1959 through Rarch, 1043,
csmOored with the monthly eatimates for that period in tno
,
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
s.,
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
.14,1y, 194.: report, nro containeld In Chart IV. While
the -a3timatod flguve.,1 fLalow actual production trends
closely in Chart V:, thy monthly estimates, in general,
tended to fluctuate ranrc sharply than did output. Tho
year17 *stimates for tho Hannover plant for the same
period compare with actutll production as follows:
1939
1040
1941
1942
Jan-Mar.43
Total
Estimated Actual Percent...2m
TWITEETan 1t ion WiriTir"
2,124,000
913,500
873,000
862,400
2X1500
#
2,029,000 55 4.
821,000 19% 4.
W26,000
b20,000 5: 4.
170 000 14% ?
4,
1775,000 C f.
T) o Continental tirc pro0uotion at Korbsch was
mIstakonly attributte to tho Continental-owned Peters
ftion plant at Franki!urt in both tire studios, The
estimated monthly tire output in this serial numbers
series for 1040* 1941, and January-atneb 1043 and the
setual production for the sams period aro shown in
Chart V. Complete figuros on output at Korbach In 1942
sr* not available, r;hanisou SA output from month to month
war' estimated closoly, but the estimates were consiatently
highs, The cemparlaon or yearly figures on Korbach tiro
output and tittmatad output are as follows:
1040
1941
,Tenwahn,
Total 332tOU
atimatod Agtual Poroontas2
P'eTnlriZaratIon VFW'
163,300
114,000
43 54 000
144,500 13% +
80,000 41% +
41u6.12 32 4.
qU15-09001
latimatea or Continental solid artillery and bogie
1 tire output based on mortal numbers wore confined tt,
owmonth poriod frws .7141y0 1041 to April, 1942. Use of
tt1 nuMbars on o1id tires waa discontinued by
Cofttlnont41 tift th followtng month, Averago monthly
production duriAg thia 10-month poriod was estimated at
48,500 solid tilres, Actual monthly production was ?5,350,
or an error 016
Aatual %ire production riguros for Dunlop, Hanau aro
* /101c on1y tor 104S and 1st/1r yoars, and the only
oosigorieon poesthle with th4 aortal number estimates in
for eirs tire production in 1043. On the basis of serial
somber estimates for the tit five months of 194$, total
1943 *aro tire produotton was estimated at l0,00. Aotual
produation wee 93,4670,0an orror of 13%,
te tho sass of Phoenix, Homburg, also, only 1943 rind
l*S. 4St* is no* available, and tho only comparison pontl
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13 with tho estimated
Februarys 1943. Tire
estimated at 25,200.
production of 18,981,
Conclusion
production for January and
output for these two months was
Th13 compares with an actual
or an error of 335.
Total German tire production and rubber oonsumption
W? e estimated very closely. The estimates by plant
which could be chocked were invariably t03 high. In
tho cam> of Continental, Hannover this overestimation
was not large, but for Continental, Korbach it amounted
to 25%. These overestimaticns wort) probably due to tho
inclusion of motorcycIo tires In the same serial number
bands as motor vehicles and aero tires.
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PLYING BOMBS
'arca reports on flying bomb, or V-I, production woru
prepariod on tho basis of serial number data. A preliminary
stud:. was issued 28 July, 194 which estimated output up
to the end of June, 1944, On 16 August, 1944, another
study was issued, Incorporating practically the same
conelusiona as the preliminary paper on production through
ft** and extending tho estimatos to cover July. These
esttmatem wure based on serial numbers on two components,
the air grid *nd thlt fuel control units. Tho third study,
14 3optember, 1i/440 was based on an analysis of fusolago
numbegos tn conjunction with the serial numbers on
comp*aentv. Thia papur did not change or extend the
conclusions of the August study other than in stating that
there appeared to be only one in assembler of flying
bombs during the period April 20 to June 1.
The produeti6r estimates contained in tho 16 August,
1944 report were as follows:
Prior to 20 April, 14
Production 20 April to
30 *pril
Monthlr rate, May, 1944
" Jane, 19116
" p July, 194i',
Dotal production up to August,
1944
4,000 (maximum)
2,000
7,000
7,000
AlAPPP
31,000
nonrIstw glying 4.)om1 output figures, have not as yet boon
road* Mr. aeorg Rickhoy, a director of the Mittelwerke
titnbvab plant, has given monthly figures relating to
prolimetion at Mittelwerke and Volkswagonwerko, but not
Lim/Wine ovit2ut At Brunsworke, Stettin. Total 1944
prodmition and total monthly production of V-i's from
September* 19? tat larch, 194$ are given in Spoor Ministry
document** Da spite of the foot that tho monthly figures
freatItickhela includo orily two plants, they are often
Urger thnn the total monthl figuros given in tho Spoor
Utast'? statistics*
MO* niekhey 4tatod from memory that about lna000 V41s
he4 tooth prodused when the first V-1 was launehod agnin-!t
14141 and that during this early period Volkswagen at
leteleboa hod been the sole producer.. For the came
1'to4 serial number estimation had calculated that 13,000
If# bad boon producodi ca4 that there had boon only ono
produotro
Documents And interviews have revoaled that the
timr boob props* wa$ plioned for 6,0000 but thtt this
of output Wit never attmtned duo to lack of shoot
fly easemtar* Productiorn was probably more in the
004 00 a month mc Witude As indleeted by both
statry an okKy statistIcs* This is only one
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third t no-half as large ns was estimated by serial
number analysis. The error in the serial number estimates
La probably duo to the faoll that there wan little
correlation between the component production and assembly.
The ostimate* /Ears based largely on the numbers on air
Ida and fuel control units which ran in simple series
from zero up. The assembly of fly..ng bombs apparently
absorbed only a part of this produrition because of the
sheet metal shortage,
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ROCKETS
Five reports estimating rocket production and
itientitylng SONO of the makers of rocket components w.rc
Issued on the follmving datem: 13 October, 10414, Vi
Ocvember! 1044, 15 December, 1 February, 1045, ma
9 Narc,1945. Output esttmates were based on an asomLi:
aerial nutSber which woo ate/willed an the peroxide tattk,
the venturl, and several othtr componento. Tho series
of papers tsswed represented, not corrections of
previous estimates, but extensions of the timu covered
by the estimates. The output figures in the tudievi
were as followst
1/112.9.1.as2=1 Date for Which r Cumulative Dillh"
TrargralWrila 0 r 0 tr'-eriZET6Ti or
,
13 Oct., 1944
Nev., 1044
15 Dec., 1944
1 Feb., 1945
15 Sopt., 10?
29 Oct,, 1044
24 Nov., 1044
15 Jan., 1045
0 Ker.,
1943
15
Feb.,
145
?r640.1( t
670 ( minimum)
1,700 (minimum)
2,400 (minimum) ftbort
3,500
4,0200
Wft
These sotimatea were the melt nearly current reports on
Gorman produotton et all taw serial number studies. In
riVe sturtiols issued the 1ne between the dates for which
orOduotion was onteulattgl and the datos of tho ruport3
vartood botwoon nine and twenty-eight days. Thlet was cu.,
both to th6 ahort pipolino between assenbly and firing ot
the rockets and to the raptdity with which thu data Wit:i
co11oot4d end analyzod,
Realmt production atatiotlos are avatleblo from Lhe
peer Xinittry for tho months from Se.Oember, :44 tbnAtO
MA1014 1946 cad for total 1944 production* With thoso
rigors* it 10 poasiLle to work out fairly cloce approxit.
ttota to produotion for the periods covered by thi,
atrial siuMbor estimates. The comparison to na foliawn
. ..i. 'Ili, h d etio Intimated Aotual ? 4
/ f111,9, YI .'1'),
Jattala rraarimwarm Pb i '? 4... 4 l'h
1 44 6 m arlint) "i,Wv ..,71,,,,.....
, 1944 1,030 900 1., .
20 ov., 1044 100' 600
24 frv1 Jrh, 1945 1,100, 1,.100 o
ill ran 3 Feb*, 1146 700 700 3
OM * 4fl7_prooduction of roc/cots for Wu) monthn
fri w 2044 to fcstruary, 1046 varied from mcwth
0 to Wp This opmpsros with th6 serial
jJ *4t1 S a & 40031 output or 20 to 20.
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An eAmmlaation ofUittelwerk near Noral,AusoLl
th4 rocket as e,sembly plant, showed that the serial
number band used to estimate output was in fact the
assembly serial number. A record of the serial numb(rs
of the rockets assembled each day from ZO January, 3A-14,
to 9 March, 1945 was foune by the assembly line at
Mittelwerke. A comparison of the date of assembly and Lao
date of incident of 12 rockets made during this peri0J
wbose numbers were obtained from fragments in England
showed that the average time between assembly and
was nine days. This compares with an estimated pi:-A)lin(
of one weeks which waa used in the serial number reporL1
In placing the date of assembly of the various 8ori4.,
numbers. in other words, the rocket reports were onl,:
two days off in placing the date of manufacture of
rockets,
The first report underestimated total production
by 1,200, and, as a result, a constant error of about
1,000 was carriod through all tha subsequent rookot
studies in the estimates of cumulative production.
Probably this error WR$ due to an earlier production
aeries for experimental purposes, none of which Inalro
ftrad on England and BolgIum,
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TOP NET
't a 3 ? i?e
[01......0.*".1Pwasommor
A
May 1945
/
VII jar lerteral fU1t.an 3. ,)i),1,)vgn
Director, Off ice of ''Ittio,t0L,I.: "lervi,.e=s
t ns t on. !lc ot tit, . ( 1. Fe, )
??ternan 3eat ton
nable London-Be-me 9047
The a t tatohed notes r ve bplof
summartes of pos It tons tn the German rntel 11-
Fenne Serlace and careers of thP persons
narled In the, subjeot
rma*sure c*py or notes (TOP (vilT)
. ?
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
TOP 4 C E r
TUMLAEttE
SS Sturabanattaehror, VSTDRICITts adjutant in 1937
ELVInt. Wi'Melat
SZ Sturialmmettahrer. laportant member or Italian and
bOod of Creotion section gf At VI HVA. Deals particu-
larly with the arganisatim of the !:.ntellIgenee and snbo-
tige metworka In rIaly and Croatia. In December 1943
raported to have moved his headquarters to Vienna.
SC1; a er
Stornbanatueriparo_ J'g4-1,0L. Kort. Early ilember of the sp.
Boltagod ts Amt 111/3 from votto1 . yoas sent too ommand
faisditotelitte 1i*rin4 in 1V384 Said to have or to the
Propagonda MlatItry in :IVO. Great friend or WAN.
lbegUltlaolm
Oisreturmbanntwohro
futseh of :all Milk*
4%fi1mart7 d J*10114
atk Okint at Sl40 *
NM 4 On Ci
40m. Took part in
in Alletrian Army; fled
'wt. Attached to the
Vienna. Was in Propaganda
*ts with ROVIIL
Altai Dukle* In Switzerland.
arWst.mvement in the upper
0404ottin within the ranks
*My *hem Aro Auatrian
-t4 114014itto Watl /Arty and Ss
1404 004110 000tintfttioA or the war, and
*mister 0, $1,tniettittion to West-
*** itlailt0417 cdritaotit
'011 it2W0airbpt aubsovent
Vi tsar halve botti trying to use
On ItioatOrri power with
4t ?tE in Olorie touch
taoltak 0 POler4
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
For Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
46
FALTFN7RUNNER, Ernst
?Iftwoomosora......
SS 1/4.tersrupperluehrer and 3enera1 der Po:. ;1110f
of the SHA. Appointed Nazi Fcrtyls Loj.al *representn-
tive for Atlstria (about 1932). Is said to have taken
part 1,1 the Nazi Ntsch of 19.541 which led to the mur-
der of DOLLFUSS. When Germany occupied Austria was
ap7ointeA :41:.retary of State for Police la Austrian
17S3uFF for Vienna, Niederdonau and Oberdonau.
Z?viccessor to FEYDRICIT as chief of Sipo & S. (Direct-
ad plqn for liberation of MTWOLINI and Insisted
on owicuation of the Jews from Italy (Oct 43). Oct.
44 appcinted fiEhief of RsrA.
?
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
INFORMATION
Gerrian Nationa; Ebt
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ROUTING SHEET
Or gina tor acro?ri
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No. Rec '.d. Itvid ' d
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
PVANIPAATEIM MENU ABNY
Office of the' A. C. of S., G-2
A.190 758 US ARMY
lge. In. S;1NO
Co We- jre
Study of the
pow Ana& awls
fr.!
Terrain
GomplusieKtions
Woriel Resources
SWAisiente
*wily Strength and Stroiegie Revery**
-4
FIDENT
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
attirtwat.
EraiL91.1114iitial.Atiti4Namillagri
til
gti
this to stligr of the sasmv situation regarding the factors and capa.
Walt-tee taveirlid in the Warta, of a mountainous area, 4THI REDonr, to
bar final, htatarle* *last awe etand4
which It la reported SatloAal SociAllan will withdrew Its remaining for
It im hoiteeedt howeesir. that the deaignated area can morm logically bo
leveed the 4.1tRDOWn Center% tanomuch As all of Oernak- la surronnded and in
fact senotitatea MOW'? under constant attack at this time.
The 41KDOU'r Canter' Ilea generally oust *Ad wept, conttins some of tho
1046e0t irweed of th* TIROL. 14112141: AlASSIPairind Aape, and extend?
/morally fres SWITZARLAUD awl the 110011811t to VI1WNA and from the ITALIAN
begot to SALZMAN (see *it-ached
tL
Aq
t* *teastrekin report* fres whirl
ihssr plane 4r-eventually defending the Mom? e
easslea o* n eubstancoi
cenelgerid fairly
xp *tat i reliable sourcst, The
en or are indicated
A Ile off:mop In ltaly state* that lute troop* 'would withdraw
part is the Aemy Group- being revised IA AUETRIA for the defense of
t.
r4ere4 that previsions ho provided le the VORAAIABO
trainei
for mountain warfare have, recently
alamler ha*
for 100i
44, 1$ i* raperiad that with Aille 4:i4M1amiory tho Nftelt will defend
ca*.14(10 to 4* os4 each*
, more slIgnifleast Shen th* reporta thesseIveo Is the presont
af the **eve* fares*. Cewelderinig the gravity of thm situation
aorihvome$ aoraaarir lb. ***Pe* 00:1414144 00204P6,10n 14
ribora tfArt Orie the liALNAN *tea is hard lia justify If Mt
Li trillifeeeltiegA. 241ANIAy dltflault to explain to the Nommen
t etmatidail talreeet She SI** ZS Peex*r ArmY? in the/
netir ta-the nows &re. hke ImeA evident einem last
* 1 t
dlet tliors * contlnupel despitm the
,
eiOndAr4M, nosy line teen beaten
44,44111 glontitam thn battle
eigoi eadlet terrt t or)" ?
441Qt?-*-,z5
=
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
fleitileft17, diterminedTeanlinuation 61-the confliet-Must be expo
ae there reaalus a semblance of &n army and terrain to defend.
Sion & geogr&phicel standpoint, the present dispositions in proba)e
tutentions of the Allied amigo tend to forte the enemy to withdraw into
geektbsern Gerntate* and eventually into the Redoubt Center.
1111. SUNEWILQUILLSSUM-XalLEMEXURZWAlglai_al.Ar r
gigtUMMALMAM,0%a4.
A. latrau,
The 'german which comprises the' Redoubt Center presente the most
eompact. mommtainona, Inaccessible area available to the enemy, it lies
geaerally 11 -W. contains the highest grovad of the TYROL -BAVARIAN, AUSTRIAN
am( =ALIAS Alpe. and ,leads generally free the BODENSNS to -VIENNA and from
tbe, =ALIAS berder to " It. extreme relief (to 12,000 feet), narrow,
at valleys and whiter winding roads make it admirable for a determined
defeat, by a sinimun force will &mitt with modern equipment.
However, the onemes capabilitr*to withdraw successfully into the
304 t Center* mumt 401 considered with regard to a much broader terrain
jOture them that ef the Center itself. It must conelder thoee intermediate
pOsitione which protect the final witbirawal into the Redoubt Center. in
ttie picture the following mate features must be taken into account (see
4,1446011sed mosp)t
?
1. On the east.
*. heWITH CARPATHIAN Mountains commanding the strongly de-
fasdedItAZ Airolor line from VISO& to the JABLUNIA Pass.
b. The =STU or SUDSTAN NoUntainel running along the NE
Wrier of CrICIOLOYAKIA fro* JAALUNKA Palm to vicinity DREWAN . This range
000flos defesso previousV prirpsred by the =CRS.
san omma, Rang* (WOODOX? SLB).
?MEOW lowest and Rano (3SLIF . =SRAM.
4* JOIDWASYorest ssi Slangs (SUB . MUNA).
inAllaMAX Jr*, * high scarp lying generally in a semi-
cliole 0 MOM.
'boss ftsturos ceastliate 'Natural delaying lines on which the
t fug*, tamed es MINNA, com Successively fall back.
IL
Oros vied!
141114C/RWM.
V 400116640
44.4geri"?.14,"1456',9'' /04-91;14P44.*.i.,AtAtirpolji-0-44440"
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7 z
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
e. SFSSaART.
d. DOHS R.
Pour fairly high ruelzed, wooded mountain areas *lightly
embalmed to that east as they extend from LOCH REIBURG . KARLSRDEZ
TEAXXIUNT AMA. =WAGE.
4. /207COMIAN graGaTs. Low scarps which are part of the RAIN
somplamdz aad lie west of NURNBURO.
Ir. SWABIAN Jur; (Alps). Hugged, abrupt. NS-SW range hinged on
ZOSMA4M at SW sad reaching a point Et of ULM about 25 miles from the FRANCONIAN
Sommalmattam.
Sammy movements of moa and materiel into the Redoubt Center Wto
plow weer a good road aad rail net which continues to function adequately
despite tea bombing attacks.
The rood aa4 rail nets ara both geed and run generally N.$, connect-
SIMA, 2131MAGE MAININGIN acultarun WURTZBURG NUMBURO with
SIOTTGAI .4111 . AMMO . end MINION.
the *toes net rue generally WW.SS. Joining IAMBS= VUTTGAHT
MU= sod TIMM 'oath the femme Autobahn rftachtLg east to MUNICH and
iAtAgUwa awl moth fres MICH through
1500r* are additiwasti route* Imaing directly south from this net
thlaSiOeaaset the PO Irell? with the Malt area by way of the Alps.
hat 0a4 rail net within the Redoubt Center are limited by extremely
nomaislmeas tictruta. VO existing roads aro good though winding. This not
ostriralt fellow* the 1011411 'alleys, although en ths northern 4nd southern
* resole
It. appto%isaleIT atone ilhe stream lints of tributaries to
Sanitat4tor *ad the IV liver,
21be main rites* Olowiag It and NX from the Redoubt Center are the
MUM WC Mk, Mg. AMIR ea* RXIM.blt110, flowing NE from via ST.
AIM (Settsefleed). "moss through LAUD= aMISIMIRUCK and follows a
ameo seriterly route through ONIURMIX to ?AMU, hi INN provides
vidley ter traffia through lhs Redoubt ?enter.
ISINCIAILIMOSSIUNLak.
takittrtal potentiols of the Redoubt Center necessarily would
Ow* My* boom $ flow moils of stamina items of ordnance
t 14114 AIN. la SA* Osestmr. Hlamler Is said to have ear.
the' profteSies et GeIvesiorta beet elms and munitione for
atop riliputo
4* tk, von. 241Sit 4101410-of WM* 116terici hame rcurted from
CU* 'PO 110410 itireoull *Ad wait with
1110106 Arnow-vim 0 on has boon rmpertod
it nakOlfoue ear. Os clewed and sealed.
1040/'
ITIAL
.17,-4' et/Itig1116?-11;c4 hekk kr-.44;(41-
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-
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neclassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA:RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
1;
2, Another report mentions a factory within the Redoubt Center
capableof producing 4 *complete Kesetrechmidt.*
3. Ouse. ememettion and maintenance ehould be comparatively easy to
conserve dump to the fact that the enemy holds extremely adventageoue ground
which should matortally reduce normal ettrition. In such terrain his losses
of material flOa the reeds and in subterranean dumps should be cut to a min-
4, Other reports indicate that complete machine ordnance ehopn aro
be1am: built nadergrouad *any conneuSed by tunnel* %ad run by hydrp-eleotric
power Ittlin the is should be able to keep his materiel fairly veil abreaet
et battle tiormade for some time.
?So areeemat and munitions works of the Tian . PRAGUE area and
the latuotrial facilities of the PO 'alley should be well worth protectinel
imesidoriag their proximity to the Aedoubt Center, it is likely that
tally at least these stations mill constitute part of the area to be
4 eedet?
L 1111111M
14414 prooany mill be a oriticia item on the mores supply list.
VOS eters* at meat sad wined foods are reported being cached in caves end
eolttormees weritticuees in the MAIM area. The amlunts of food required
11, the forges neoreesary to defeat would be tremendous. The amounts Stored
ors la metier of osnjecture, but it west be admitted that the enemy normally
eftsgme adequate *apply even uliaes.matsvvroblz combat conditions. It is.
theretstel, INgiSsill to assume that hie prsparetions for feeding the Redoubt
vane? are pregreesing. This suili017 certainly will be supplemented by the
0
isitsi of doOrdrated foods and h7 'atones cultivation of the small, rich valleys
Sits liedoubt Center,
It eon ruttier be emposted that the enemy will attempt to hold,
I Mdrain to the fullWet She vetftectivity of the PO end DAL=
MOCROILWW14 ot the Upper DALLOS as long as pessible?
14 WAIL-1:12X...atsats.a.SAILL,
IMAOmmok, es the *Oval tac4tai defense carrot bagin until some
fates's, dot* the wow * segith claaot be gauged regiment bp
mem, unit* be lste ly speeiric designition. A general estimate,
toileat** NW it allows4 to wishitraw on his own time schedule the
Sast carmat? 418 slit, taretto prodeminsitely DV and Mountain troops, of
lisitsmoss 1044004 1004000 mato This 'atom- force, for defense of the
moil& 4* tottli*eltippest tined for mountain warft?re and
ilhialfthOkkp 1104e04 WO% AO est spirit
1401001110,*, the Webrameht Ohms so signs of quitting and undoubtedly
-Sis NM** lost it- 14041,11146 orders, equiment and supplies.
Oat 0000, VOilletlee She-following
kti6r --,4,50=44*2-
?11[400.
pabtlitissl
?n-
Fnr Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
roved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7 1.1.101104111/WW1
1. TX' withdraw voluntarily and immediately to the Redoubt Center,
sertenIng with force* not needed sr inionpable of being eunported at the
emater.
To delay on successive positions back to the Redoubt Center.
3. 2o continue defense of the National Redoubt (the area present
coecapied hy the *new). give ground or counterattack where, necessary, to
esintmin the integrity of Its force, and, when process, retire to the Redoubt
Clater.
iv 40 In eeehtuation with any of the above, to make a fanatical Nlaet
Ea, at the Redoubt Center.
jOMMINMILMIt.
Terrain tooter** in Southern Sermeny will assist materially In the
emegottea et ear aes ef the *hey* capabilittee. The eastern flank could be
6140 is strength along tho the YUMA . JABLUXILL Pose . DM= - UBE River.
line file MIKA tit 4031141114 Pass, behind the VIII River defenemo to be
boU detereinotlir. 1,1Milts the main hinde, and the DAN= Valley to bo pro.
tooted hy also** of the Stith $S ?Alkmaar Army reinforced by troope from the
ALIZABI Nog 1.2441. Under pressure this line gould hinge on JAMMU Pass
***foal tack on tho demos* of 010 SUMILTAB 40untains and along the ELBA
*War, thador further premolar* the line could then hinge on WARNSDORP end
rim IV along the JIM BMUS Meng* to H and NW along the THURINGIA to
=MA=
%der addi onal pressure thr has 31114 .WAND0117 JULUNKA could
toliktirtg to the U toe 1t AW1 $UB TUNIC thero making a
atailletikot.$4161 on She Seuthon DOMMKIM mountains Just north of the DANUBE
*Wit, 1)11* weelit allev a It nisidorstle shortening o4 the Line and the bui
tag asp of a omen room.:
Z. *ester* flank 004114 hiags on the WARM if2311141R0 sector, which
11$asoidediamt tioiNg fortified to a depth of 30.40 kme, A determined
aemad
be amdlis to Itaaegt the use LOIRADE MUNRO . /WORM . max.
Maui* tatset w holding the high groand mast of the MINN
ritt,041401614144,irivie So the north mast so that the tip of thib flank
4 ON illog VDU *RPM won the rtrht flank 'a'.115 back on thee THU
14.04,41 *let at ILIMACIO.
lama drive* fres this high left flesh ground, the line ootzad (mu-
tts** fie pivot ea MOM= hod follow the /AMMAN Jura range NM from LORRA00 to
a Imilitati mar* et aim whale it Ito, *sly Ova% 26 miles troy the YRANOOPIAN Jure,
sitioakeeald to %tills** hy the sight flack ma e secondary, delaylng position.
lho otalit hefero the Moodivatl Center could lie from LOROAOR
olio* she WM* 41m .0 DAPURO Slyer %.T enact this is the last natural
Ilse ot 440(41041* WOW 1440 Nediesht Neter itcelf.
LI I. tolioirct that tho *sow is prepared to foAtow a plan based gen-
ematAp 004**00 flimemrlised fehomo? lout only when foraed. It Is believed that
01001 SWI tk f$0441/4 ee two !Wats egainat superior forces, in comparatively
amostry MN** 1,4***1 40emeo itami bo must eventually abandon Northern
,
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
woomminemoneammuimeminumumn
4L,
General:
I elan go over the captured uncensored German letters
written In Qoptember and October to and from holland. I read
thdo br the hundreds last week and I have never been so impressed
by anything coming out of Gelmany since tne var. Signs of badffiAla
maralot of exactly what they are most afraid of are ample. They
a/so express time and time again, that at least what they have still
sot is each otner or life* Tba4 and the fear of hussia were the
two metstandtag theme** There Is 30 much of it, which we could use
and. uss in their own way of expressing it, I would think that
ir
we say what they say themselves we could break morale a lot faster
Met by invacting stuff
amt be careful with promises. We can not say clandestinely that
vewill se that German eurranoy remains atable, when at the same time
we set a 'mellow rate for the Mark,
A lot less Oblialty should b* gi?ven to the rules imposed upon
hi Oblithiir* coonotrning fraternisation with the Grans. That $.60.-
.
tth* 'head hot bet 0,We up. Let then at least ha:pa for the bust
trots lasto thay arkt tiat at, inolir.04 to think.
ttwaitirreni4 Yorior la a good simxii about a tnpy trial in Romeo
stary of uttet American fairness, very moving ? would circulate
that *ion aandisatinely in Jemmy rlth tho date and place of puoli-
*an it look a* if it had ben picked up by a Uorman
tekStAf
I Jebal
r,pNsent.US sample of the above mentioned letters
az* tom& am iPt0totaktoMai;
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Itbik atmospilere th Germany now is very stern and detarninod. I
doubt that this year they take out much time and emotion for
Christmas. It is true that usuatly this event played a large
part in very jermans life. It was {)f a sentimental nature.
Out this year they cannot afford it. If in these broadcasts
the mood Is too dirferent from the way they feel, it will make
thaw fUrious. The purely religious theme seems to me tho most
advisable. Sven in cm. spokonNazi 1114M*AX letters religion is creeping
tm a* the last hope. Iwould play up the two opposites, war means
more loss, more deaths, stopping of war means - life. We must
stick t* their own mood, but make it more so. We have no chance
to convert the real Nazis, 30 lets try to influence the weak,
the bwoless ones the widows? the orphans.
1111/101161010
The big problem in Uermany is "displaned pIrsons". No doubt
vo will have to .lp them in that matter. We could launch
rumor, that Uhrra is going to help the 4ermans with that
roblea (by th.wa am mart that it will be so) and then
stiOt attach more hope to this and hope that we will
Mt heap tbsa inweltaral or what not
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
1. Pursuant to your request, we have drawn up
far :ror signature a proposed recommendation to the Joint
Chie.fa or Staff on the subject of "Black t'ropaganda
ofUnc..?Inditionel Surrender Theme."
2 this paper was submitted to Mr. lamer Davis
on this date, and he concurs in tha desirability
program and the themes to be utilized. Of
Tish to comment on the methods to be
employod, as he feels he has no competence in this phase of
?t s understood that your office desired to
handle Ule coordination Atitn the Department of :State.
1.1.T.Ltzt,..1141:t.
K. D. Mann, Col., AUS
Chief, MO
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
3LACKFRO PA ....IA:CIA IL- N C '14 41 I' :1 DUI
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1. Allalysis of Gorman propaganda !'or hpme-front
cons=ption discloss that while a literal translatlon ut:
the pkwase "unconditional surrender" has rarely been
amployed to convince the German people that there is no
niterrvAttve but to continuo the war, the concept of surrenl-p
hne. become assoclated tn the Uerman mind with tIle 1,ort
estastrophies *Itch could be:sil the populatn. The
horrible prospects of exile to Siberia, eternal slavery,
de-industrialization, break-up of Germany, i.ind even
steed!. ation? have been carefully portrayed to the
OarmAns by amir Nazi leaders. It is considered that the
(lemon spirit of resistance hna been bolstered greatly by
roar of the ootstequenoes or uni:onclitional surrender.
Black propaganda disseminated by wholly secret
d prportthg to originate from within tonemy
countries co11114:
MI the propaganda value of this theme
b7 atcempting to elksociato "unconditional
surrender" rrom ?the ftrfliottone Nazi loaders
Wm* been predicting'. to their people.
I lis....2"lx"11121;
*Uneond time' surrender" is demnrirted or
**10 Oovernmoit b7 the Allleo* but It
*PPlitouf (Inly to the Nazi Oovernment And
the Wehrmsch * enunot to ua as individuals
Our of A 114d Poroos In Italy,
041gArla and opoupled aroma of
Osomft leprovt 16* Nszt lotions-of
haft andlOgoos toesultAng from
4Unqundlllmak wurmAtirt4
4
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nprdacsified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
f
.1;2:Laig
Convert the theme to n blnek propanda r.eapon
of our own by psociatine "unconditional surrenJer
witr. desirable rnther than fearsome prospect.
Unconditional surrender means "our" d..-ltvery
from the Nazi yoke and would re-;,rqsent n
beginning for the aerman people wherein "our"
biological strength, shrewdness, and scienti-
fic prowess would soon lead "us" to a healthy
economic and soolal position. Homes, indus-
tries, national wealth, and the framework of
the German Army would be conservea for the
ruture. Th e destructicn of Germany is too
high a price to pay for saving the Nazis fop
another four or five months, by which time
military derevt is inevitable.
Suggest that continuation of the war would expose
the Gorman people to a fate rorse than that
threatenei by Nazi propagandists.
Waal Black l*eme
The traditional humanitarian tendencies of
the democracies may cheive to vindictiveness
If the war is allowed to continue. The chaos,
disease and privation predicted for 113 in
the avant of unconditional surrender will
develop 137 prolonging the war. "Our" con-
tinued rosioosnce protects Only the Nazi
les4ors.
puriouS) ide4 of spearic terms ct unconditional
*I*A111e4 Tome).
alikw
*et folla Kt TIA
v:,f.t; L.'
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
.r ous d
1
purportedly clandestine newspaper, "Das Neue ;:eutschland,"
is being printed in Europe by this organization az..i distri-
buted by means of agents to the German troops on the .:stern
Front and the Italian Fronto in Hungary and in Austria.
Future editions of this publication, whose cover is still
considered to be secure, can dovelop the themes enumerated
in Paragraph 2 above. Rumors currently being carried thrc
neutral countries to Germany and initiated among German too-,?
by means of agents can portray the inevitability of defoqt
end the reasons for unconditLonal surrender now. A false
dommemt.setting forth actual terms of unconditional surrender
may bt "planted" in such a manner that its content would be
appropriately publicized, or the secret Allied intentions
attev surrender could be "dimolosed" by rumor alone.
4. It is recognized that in condunting black pvoptt-
ondst operationa, the teal source of the propaganda may be
suapected, but it dissemination is handled in such a manner
atat neither the Allied Military Commanders nor their
Governments can be implicated, and all such propaganda msy,
if re?3sz7t be ?facially disavoweds
That the AtoraIt Operations Branch of this orgnni-
zation be aulhorized to undertake a black propaganda campaign,
areoted at the German people's fear of the oonsequences of
*unconditional surrender."
that themos, elmilar to thoae outlined In the
esaussion be employed?
I
*ttio. of nform*
puttftam ot St44.1
William 3. Donolain
Dtrostor
nna-Inecifiari
nd Anoroved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
4
014
;
aermany will be entarely occupleA by Allied
Although Russirin, Uritish and American troops
vill occupy three .eprate secticns of Germany,
it is not intended to partition the Gorman Reich.
4.4
1.ttemal order will be maintained by Allied
77orces until e German Government is formed.
War criminals will be tried by special inter.
natiovsl tribunals. Impartial justice will
moted aut.
Win* criminals mrs defined as leaders of the
National Socialist Party, certain general
artioors in aka Webrmacht, police officers of
high. rank, mnd any ether persons who hove com-
mitted artmlnal aetm
Poravai atoused of being war criminals will bo
OommItted t?o trial only after the establishment
.U7 Moir probable participation in criminal acto
TS4 impArtial tntornational body.
WZUevontum ly be allowed to ehowle
war twat orgavernmant and the Allies will
offitt Cho moUlnery for rogistering the
G f popular will.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
?
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
No member of at :vart,s will Oo allowed to holt
any office or poslicn of trtu.r...
Jermany will beadmttted to patitIcIpbtion In what-
ever association toltions Is formod aftt.r. provin-
its good intentions.
The establishment of s 2roaperout3 ";.%rmAny as
self-sustaining :lumber of Ule family or tlet13n9
is ted by the Allies. To thiz ond ttlo A111e8
will restore the boats of 4,)vtui ,lorman curtioncyl
as41stanee in the relitcTstion of ,_;on!,n!) in,i1P3tvy
will be, providad vitt: a view to absorbint;Lho
unemployed, and Germemy will be allowed access
to raw materials and market.:! In order to support
its industry.
thwmany will be forbidden to manufacture sirplaneu,
guns over 20 rm. 1tbt und warships, Allied
control will be amroised to insurl) that German
trdtt wiLl be di acted only toward the produs-
tion or non-milittry goodo.
Property aoquirtd by Germans in Any other ()wintry
will tte roturned to its ownor or oompenaatifm mmlo.
ftopert destroyed or damaged ol Germans In Any
1,COr oountr3 will t>ty robuilt And rectored by
3401470My
Tr*.dan of roligian gagran4o0d,
tAtuaattm, nuotort und he prase will to) conzrolled
t4 %if stent neaeaesey to Inourn thnt, Nationta
111=iiiiamillaWMPrw4W
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Socialism and similar doctrines are
polit!cal character will te permitted.
ec;
3
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Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF
DISCUSSION
1. Analysis of German propaganda for home-front
consumption discloses that while m literal translation of
the phrase 'unegtaditional wrrendor" h*3 rarely been
wmployed to convtnce the German people uht there is no
altarnative but to continue the war, the concept of surrender
has bacome associated in the German mind wW-1 the worst
catastrophies which could befall the population. The
horrible prospects or exile to Liberia, otennel slavery,
de-industrialisation, break-up or Germany, and even
stertlitation? have been carefully portrayed to the
3srmans by timeir Vast Zeadcra. It is considered that the
amain spirit of realstanos hes been bolstered graatly by
fear of the consoquences of unoondittonal surrender.
2.Black propaganda diseeminated by wholly secret
salons and purportin to origins te from wt thin enemy
souraries could
Dinani ;Ida value or this theme
by to 4jjiato "unconditional
surrftters rr tho anictions Nazi leaders
ralea biaa pratticting to t heir peoplaiQ
Voiliiiiatioula *um.4 te demsnded of
e Govornmont bp th allos, but It
ippU.s okay to Cho Oovernment and
obroliOdht, and n to us as individuals.
eimpt Of Allia4 rarees In Italy.,
401, 10%**/01* mid occupied arenas of
,
0 04,001tiono smolditing frail T4%
r 4
Weetel surronder
,
nne-Imccifipri and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
is?
-
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
b, 4o1vert the the to a black propaganda wespoD
of our ova byIII21W0aa "unconditional aurrendW
with desirable rether Chan fearsome prospects.
241LaLsEitt
trnoonditional surrender means "our" delivery
tot thc Nasi yoke and would represent a new
beginning for Uhl> Oerman people wherein our'
biologiaal stranth, shrewdnese, and acienti-
fio prowess would soon lead NI " to a healthy
*concede and social position. Homes, indue-
tries* nntional wealth, Ano the framework ot
the German Arm would be conaervod for the
future. The destruction of Germany te too
high a price to pay for saving the Nazi* for
another four or five months, by which time
Allitar7 44fest Iv Inovitablo.
e. set 004:troutictuation or the war would expos*
tho GormartOpX. ta n fate worse than that
threitt*nedb7 sspromandiata.
humenitarien tends:1?1e8 of
Cho damomatoa may *Wings to vindictivenece
if tho war is aLlowod to continuo. The chaos,
disos**0 sal prOlation prediIted fcat us in
owint ot unconditional aurrander will
?Simla key pro:1404ft U4. wav. "Our" on
tismod roOistonglp protests citty Uho Nazi
le*Or*
OSIF, *WM* ?Opl?t oleer (but wholly
tftsoit ippereirie tome or unacEnditional
0414"141t.64 Um*
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
3, t res.= a spur 0113 an
pervertedly clandestine newspaper, "Das News Doutaehland,"
Is being printed in Rump* by this organization and distri-
tnted by means of agents to the German troops on the western
Front and the Italian Praut$ in Hungary and in Austria.
Future editions of ti a publication, whose cover is still
considered tc be secure, can develop the themes enumerated
in "Paragraph 2 above, Rumors currently being carried through
neutral countries to Germany and initiated among German troops
by swum of agents can portray the inevitability of defeat
and the reasons for unconditional surrender now. A false
dcaumantt setting forth actual terms of unconditional surrender
may be 'tplanted4 in such a manner that its content would be
apprIspriately publicised, or the secret Allied intentiona
after surrender could be "disclosed" by rumor alone.
4
It I* r lea ,that 411 conducting black propa-
tions, the pea *surto, of the propagende may be
guippitt.4, but its diseeminstion I* handled in such a manner
that netthor the Allied Watery Oommanders nor their
Oeveriumsnte can be implleated, and all such propaganda may
it actoessary be officially disavowed*
IINNINOWISO
1* That the Norale Operations Bream of this organi-
be watboasad to andertake, a blank propaganda campaign,
odi *I Wit Garisam peoples fear of the consequenocs of
afoul marse
Mob *am
similar ti:
alsousalot, beolopi 946
ien
nod in the
Dergetionk
? :".4";46-.
-
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
U.
_
!
MoiaSSINg
I Chummy will b* *Tmirely ?coupled by Allied
Om**
Althoudh nunuen$ British and Amerlosn troopa
will coaupy three separate sections of Germany#
it Is not intendo4 to partition MI Oorman Releh.
.10
RUM
J.114.811411 order wil3 be neintetined by tined
terse* Atkin ()Mall 00YerIvnisntt forzued?
t;r4104;iigi
War 0 lar will be tried by special inters:*
national trillowielse, Impartial justice will be
mootimi mit*
ure#404041* are delned as leaders of Ole
SidOlist Party, certain gonerel
!
401111400* Stt the Wehrmeoht, pollee officers of
P0006 411 obher P sone who have oom-
441tokil
Ot betas war orinatitle will be
el only skittakr tau estsblishment
?pfts1141pation in ortminal acts
latonottionalb*Ay.
i?
^ ?
" ? ,
-
1* 7Uarnituiolly too a13. wed to_atiatesa Its
tioopt, end tft* Allies will
nary far regtotering
at 1.41241
7: ?
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-
.
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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mmmommemommummummmmm
'1.
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US*
lit Party will b ? stamped oat,
Mabel* of that party will be allowed to hold ?
ICI *Mao or positice, of trust?
Giveaway 411 baseteittod to participation in whet
?V asavolatiou or KtiOc5 Is formed sftar proving
Its goad intOntions,
astablishiassat of a prosperous Germany as
diolf-sustaining stember of the family of nations
cle,sirod by the Alltes? To this and the Allies
tllrtatore tits boats of sound German currancys
aostatize. in the restoration of German industry
will be provided with a view to ebsorbidnz the
tation0407.eit and Garmany will be allowed eases*
fto ritift toirjal. wad sigarkets in order to support
las tivittas
Clormany wU bo fog*btiddan to manufacture airploneso
OA* ;mop SV so*. otalibre and warship*. Allied
cocitro4 voi,X1 bat faxeralsed to insure that Gorman
taisli4101
taitita et riot1
1112.41alak
,
roataid only toward the produo-
Illtod
Itit
Prow 14. ]ensin any other country
will 41.. *MVIsiSd owner or compensation made*
*** loolWorild dottnago.4 bI Germans in any
gr Itiottia 't and rantored by
`It
1. elli.4011114rfre itlatigiors ta, asuralantoitilip
8* 4014.11,101110 004100141 old tri* press will be controlled
y 1 iimt. 41144.14.4nompositr7 to insure that Ilatiandi
? VII ? t?t-'!-42
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
ao, "
Socialism and slialar doctrines art not
ativocated.
Organizations of
It
non.military find non.
political dharaotsr will be permitted,
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litie Sane
tzeostavitft
irrX4.
1 December 1944
" t k
tit '
$111 paa piAleite se* that copies of thls vloo
isiaislaao to SI and koll nnti send the atthched balk
to AAA l'ot meeionsionias, in CID. You mieht wish to have
Mr, Amply amd Mr. ftsperdson Look at this prior to
photomtatimi to see whether they want =plias of tho
'We docusent or only of portions.
a
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1 December 1944
;rip Miebibel Potulicti
c/o ara.4o . 16th
WashAmiltw,U, D, Cf.
10 gear Dr. Potullckis
I have received your report. I found
It tmtij document.
At my request owrexperts looked it
over. They have told mo that the mass of material
acomaatiod ty you to demonstrate your polvt is
extrema:, completes Thus Tour with Sox' my opinion
ias to whether it could be made st1/1 more so leaves
Little tow& for somment.
The report Li very helprUl. Ium gvate-
Pal to you for lettlas me hsve it.
?
Sincerely
3. Doecittin
Direotor
.Art `'""1".` acr4r.-4Ar r."2' - ? ==-?
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
1
711 '
_
ststtilittirt- tet
.Z)FFICE OF STRATEGIC SERVICES
.11.1.11,*?11?Milintt ????????.???=1?????
- f.7.
INTEROFFICE MEMO
General ronovan DATE: 20 Novez,Der 1944
FRCM Willian L. Langor
SUBJECT
-.mo*-,IL:attloora.4%*4430104341
I sae seeding you herewitkk sone oom-
nents prepared by the ELL staff on the
Polish study of the oretnisation of German
thinkimg. If possible, Ise should like to
have this study for *occasioning in the
Central Information Division.
r
i /
X. riangstri
=et, Research td
Analysis Branch
t - r"-.;?'? ?z.
r !AA,
;:e...2;1`t,%.5-"?^2.047.
e
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R00010
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13.X00001R000100270008-7
Memorandum
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
tot Lit* Sohorsko DATE: le No,resaber 1944
zo
itROM Salary lellensefea Pt -j816:ik:at ?
strnincr: Study. on that organisation of Gorman thinkine
t
.147ii>11'`;
?
The study proposes to attaok pcm..Gerwanica as ono of the allijor
touses of past sad possibly future wars* TM author believes that
pone.Gommisins has bees perpetuated through a network of soni.Enilitary,
pelitimal, *situps',, soleatillo? ocanserttial and prepaganda agencies*
?While igaoresse of thee* institutions and aegligitaes towards their
aetivity are held largely responsible for the revival of German
militarism* Tho author ocsoludes thet the Asseval of tt-ese sources
St spiritual rearessamit 'sill go a Dag 'way toward "Alienating the
cause of internatiossa insecurity and confliat*
The premise vadsubtedly is sound* Moreover, the pass of material
seesramslate4 by the author to prove kis peiat is astounding. However,
the reigert settiore greatly tree poor orgaaisatiato laok a analyst s,
end feiltsro t stinguish olearly *betimes' iridigeaous Nasi institutions
sad lath** misused by the at tor political purposes*
?Or isatanse? the author lists the tenons taissr-Wilht.lskigiesellsohaft
twandod in 16114. a researeh inotitcrtar of worid?wide fano, alongside
sash speoifia Nati agissies as the Iteielasfore?' 'rat, founded in
UV, or the Alakismin dos DautatchattairiaiST see pages 28 and ITO
an the Maar 3.;271MirlirWry inac)41m`eu.sa`lil..'"'neo :Rats illilSdasehaft ftir Geo
is steeling, and tbe very elaborate organ as o propagskt a
eopooially tM rata* sorvions, are treated rather inadequately* The
brief eareay of the Nati:sisal Socialist Party is nagel4h too sketchy to
be icsielal soft mild easily be spared altogether.
irwarestly, the anther did net wish to burden tho report with
figimaytigial eseermato itaaeoquestly. Ms ,deseriptive materiel consists
by au* Itarg* St tnetattess fro% honk*, inewspepors and *Aquino articles,
stria. lonely tagether without any attempt to evaluate the reliability
ef tibe seam* seed* Sone af the information is estoga-Aterts, but it is
pistmarily the look of orgsmissties under sposific headings end the
thadiseirtiliamte of isetley sews,* whit* ossittos 'ad reader* The
*Wow eveleitl see for treitasat ever4gilppings with the explanation that
it is *nee efftsestlik Ilietixodebt belting* institutions sorting
neissititie ea4 thee* eitrrise preptiruda purpealias
ill *see of this im4opirtia le 'pito angressing and helpful;
ly the oiaspliOr ea Gotuandsot Abroad (see pages 1311 and ff.)
* of ditto shoat agateitai and pervonalities which night
Inlicireating le n GAP Ipto
a h ;?77`ax
04.tre.
'-????:.). , '40:5r.t,"
_
LI;
CONFI DEN IAL
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npriacsified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13.X00001R000100270008-7
Memorandum
UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
tot Lit* Sohorsko DATE: le No,resaber 1944
zo
itROM Salary lellensefea Pt -j816:ik:at ?
strnincr: Study. on that organisation of Gorman thinkine
t
.147ii>11'`;
?
The study proposes to attaok pcm..Gerwanica as ono of the allijor
touses of past sad possibly future wars* TM author believes that
pone.Gommisins has bees perpetuated through a network of soni.Enilitary,
pelitimal, *situps',, soleatillo? ocanserttial and prepaganda agencies*
?While igaoresse of thee* institutions and aegligitaes towards their
aetivity are held largely responsible for the revival of German
militarism* Tho author ocsoludes thet the Asseval of tt-ese sources
St spiritual rearessamit 'sill go a Dag 'way toward "Alienating the
cause of internatiossa insecurity and confliat*
The premise vadsubtedly is sound* Moreover, the pass of material
seesramslate4 by the author to prove kis peiat is astounding. However,
the reigert settiore greatly tree poor orgaaisatiato laok a analyst s,
end feiltsro t stinguish olearly *betimes' iridigeaous Nasi institutions
sad lath** misused by the at tor political purposes*
?Or isatanse? the author lists the tenons taissr-Wilht.lskigiesellsohaft
twandod in 16114. a researeh inotitcrtar of worid?wide fano, alongside
sash speoifia Nati agissies as the Iteielasfore?' 'rat, founded in
UV, or the Alakismin dos DautatchattairiaiST see pages 28 and ITO
an the Maar 3.;271MirlirWry inac)41m`eu.sa`lil..'"'neo :Rats illilSdasehaft ftir Geo
is steeling, and tbe very elaborate organ as o propagskt a
eopooially tM rata* sorvions, are treated rather inadequately* The
brief eareay of the Nati:sisal Socialist Party is nagel4h too sketchy to
be icsielal soft mild easily be spared altogether.
irwarestly, the anther did net wish to burden tho report with
figimaytigial eseermato itaaeoquestly. Ms ,deseriptive materiel consists
by au* Itarg* St tnetattess fro% honk*, inewspepors and *Aquino articles,
stria. lonely tagether without any attempt to evaluate the reliability
ef tibe seam* seed* Sone af the information is estoga-Aterts, but it is
pistmarily the look of orgsmissties under sposific headings end the
thadiseirtiliamte of isetley sews,* whit* ossittos 'ad reader* The
*Wow eveleitl see for treitasat ever4gilppings with the explanation that
it is *nee efftsestlik Ilietixodebt belting* institutions sorting
neissititie ea4 thee* eitrrise preptiruda purpealias
ill *see of this im4opirtia le 'pito angressing and helpful;
ly the oiaspliOr ea Gotuandsot Abroad (see pages 1311 and ff.)
* of ditto shoat agateitai and pervonalities which night
Inlicireating le n GAP Ipto
a h ;?77`ax
04.tre.
'-????:.). , '40:5r.t,"
_
LI;
CONFI DEN IAL
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npriacsified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
November 1st, l44.
Personal and Conf1,4,antlal
My dear leneral
Referring to our talk yesterday at the Zamoyskis,
I nave pleasure in sending you copy of a report which
(t sublimated to the Departwent or State relative to the
various Institutions which have a strong grip on Ger.:111
public opinion in Germany and in German circles abroad,
theguldia&,- spirit of which is the German General Staff,
I am attaching to my letter a short introduction
which at the same time gives the conclusion,s.
If an alphabetical list of the names quoted in this
report were made, one would automatically obtain the
list of the loading Intellectuals who have worked in the
last fears In Germany under the direct leadership or with
the essistance of military man such as General Ewald von
Massow, General Haushofer, General von Epp, SS. General
Lorenz, General Booker, General Faupel, Admiral von
troth, and many others.
The Nazi :Party has undoubtedly absorbed many of the
organizations which had oxisted during the Imperial and
the Weimar rggiame. Nowt when the N3cDJP. cracks,
tilers will vevy prcbably be a tendoncy of decentralizing
tbe movement, I.e. o: retaing to the organizations
mbrith were im existence before WItler. That is why it is
taportant to know them.
V. must be added that the attached study does not
COVAM? e field of the numerous patriotic, Fehme - and
other orsaalzatons which appeared in the Relot ;After the
last war (like the Vehrwolf", "3altikum9, "Oberland",
siNarxesch" eta.); it deals only with the main scientific
and propaganda institutions in Germany.
Aa t1il9 report took a long time to be prepared on
t46 bests or Germaa material which had to be translated,
would be most grftteful to have your kind opinion on the
quoatton whelhor It would seem useful to have it made
still mere *ompleito.
ot-WO,"
nariaccifiad and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
somommommilmmmimmommommu
iatrQduct!Js
The ref,Iruwtion af the terimtal mentality kwristY%utAls, doubt-
losoly0 a cru.lal problem of the Lresemt world. ,ur centuries
4orliian.sta
ties fouezAt s tradition vfhich it has endeavureJ to destroy
tor its own gains agalaat every possibility or peaceful 1nterna-
10.0441 *coperstion. acaeiquentiy, "the pan-kiermAnic spirlta is
being discussed ti wide circles. lut* up to the present time no
uttemilt hat been undo to enalize more closely the saurcer tram
imich It enunates. Thus, the queStion runs: what actually are
the chaamitis th.rougt which the Gorman Reich hes fostered the Ain-
44orgaa spirit for its external poU.uy whica lu u policy of pens-
trationo or expan4iczism and or diaruption at other atates?
Apert tram taat, ub1ia opini4.14 is highly interested today
La Rvado ,roolea a tb necesaity of re-educating the Uerman people
after tills wars La anter Om% thiair psu-Gorman and militaristic
MantSlity ouXd be mn44, to dialtpotar, Theoe to problems aro
*lomely Inixed# c,t, a ropsoduatition of Geimany cannot even be
tt*Viable or, without a prstound iblowledse of that ustions
The :rent:, or ifersailles made timid attampt in its
ArtillIe 176 tZ) aud ift to oolve this problem:
IT6 al. 4
"G*nsclioutly, and tharing Vig) taiod fixed alloys, all
m1114sry waviluals* or stmilar nsttt4tions in uormany,
a* **Li es la* itiftwront Walter? 04110ols for ?Moore,
studesio otrileer* tAspirantwo, aads00 non-oommiasion*
0trlasri or situ4ont ****oomalavion4d ?tricorn (Aspironten),
oth*r theca the 101004 041% for, will be abolished*"
A4U4stio ni liotAbliAidat) tAmi thaiMer Woes soototies
dio4041044114 valdifor EttoOrtrog or Wuring (flubs sad t
604101*117 toenktuk asoosintionto a avery dbmortytion;
?
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14,444.
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIP-RDP13X00001R00010027.00. 08-7
1 * 0, eupy
temzelves with any military matters,
4L they will be forbluuou to inbtruct
or exercise their members, or to allow them to be
instructed or eAereised, in the profestiou or use of
&ma.
/tame vaaisties, associations, otluentionol esta-
blishments and universities must have AO connection
mith the lainistries of asr or any ottoir milithry
authority.*
rant means (a) that it was deal:cod to vapprosL1 all military
atademl - or *similar" institutions and (b) that it was foruicaen
to educational ftstabliahments end associations of every kind in
.lermany to 'ooeupy thelmeives" in general with military problems.
1144 tiae Cr'srmara lofted tbis prohibition* kumediutely aftur
Uh. Tteety oemo into foroe they foundod in berlin a wiloereabue.
Abercie (1:14j Librury) wnie4 becume 4na center around whion honoe-
font gathered t.be military brains, such as Groonerp von Seooktt
ison aummerstein-Iquord* Guderian, atuelpnagel and hundreds of
44.6ers. 441 the *.uaLittisahes er41e in iiiunioh, Auri Aiaushoter from
4t* rear Alit4 began to try Mit his thoory or-lf-geo.
Apiat tsoit that# betweask ISA and 1,24 Gorman educational otroles
devoted Uuttasalv-ss satirely to proving OirmaAy's inuoosnee in son-
nestift 140 tte ori me or the War at it. The kutaoh's of
Xepp.44044witX
* t idadaatlerfr-Hitler fell wed in eusoession.
4twa* of e*AbAU or portiOsilitery orstaizetions appeared. tlundrods
A4cta1 aswasalua4lous took ;;1111e44 All these events cosurred
U*4*. ellos el tla Males of Terasilles wht set up their 1iU8
pots 0000414144 pl'444614 Og Oa hypothesis thaL Law( wotAld remain
vgalOrtit * tame an4 thetp their control wouln prove to be
411**010*
1 s oo questioned waother
,
^ '
r
.4",ftzmr? '
rzi r
1-mrmk*Kmimm74,1?.mtm m
npriacsified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : C1h8k-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
instead afp.Cl1Lti.n uch vadue iater4ictions2 it would not
Asia besa wiser to be more ex.plicit fi.AQ to act avirtly, i?e. to
pitieforn sate sort or a surgical op#raticn UpOD C,ermeny in the spi-
rituel rield. la tarts a ,;:ractical course suoule have been taken
sesret.14 settlng e list at the moat tationallstie organize.
tiotts or ubleh tPeltelmir abould have been deprived and which could
him* balsa easily; 3masported to the Allied countries.
The Idvantago etained would have been vary great,. The Allied
nations woutd bawl succeeded in this way to lay the foundation for
a better uzdelastandiag of jermany. Today; ea in the past, it is
ignorsoco waioh I* stew) all tile source of "appeasement*. in the
gremt vajority of mantas* - with the possible exec tion of irthos
the stmal on 41iieroania* is a totally unknown discipline. Through-
out the wo:14 the univsrsities and high schools limit themselves
tore tasectlaa rmat literat and musio l'e. the best subjeets
otitAigia2many sae navortiL As rvgarda German politicsi political
Aletorrt geopoiitiaa or Webreisionishaft" (military solunse) a
AleciAletinfa icruailit still exists, evon after ?Ave paars fiar,
AA suss 0. stresipt4 tbiat it by #4,1m, one encounters hero or tiisra
ita Intsvest in tbO*4 011106A solo/woe ov the pseudo-sciences, it is
ofteriall 4*rmarts ot crypto-Oirmana WAO nrs ceinG celled as experts.
II 'soma to us titst atter this second aorld *art :mob a state
of War* Would, slicks,* It is "men hIgh Lime to reflect on this
berar*j. 444 of wit= filiww-
SA now *-"1aatio4 ripppriti wat hie
koffilit slaws
Wtribtt 41gisaltso
,
II
to *w the huge network
$ 0 the
it (seam in
istialwitual alas*. flundreds
W
?
n ri Annmved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
?
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
ons Wive neon spsnt in order to hcaleve trais dud tuousands
fa university ,rofessora end teachers tlAve contributeu towtavd/ it.
As a result of /tit all the German rulirtg class Li t.o do wns to
viek the frits of :heir efforts fur ztoir uxma :1 2,uropenn or
world hec,eranny.
In this connettion it is interesting to note the nomee of
LEigh-ranizi officers which appear in the registers of institutions
etieht a priori would 'teem to have nothing in common with the srmy,
fluty constitute a In litany of name, such as: general vc,a .:4Eur4sope,
Sanely von Thottas, beckerp Loremt *nd others. Everywhoro
W e eezt detect tb?s hand of the General Staffs 1.e. of those who
hove oyez 144a true xaulters of iruesie and (Jemmy :or alaost a
oeatus7
4it4out all shesit organizations the Reich would never have
Deem sal* to dreN vw:111 47ntatio energy from its people either in
-00. :it oiarld mar or in tit* asdond.
TA/set timiza organizations FAld institutions muat go,
Lb* Armistice treaty ot tomorrow tbould, in our opinion,
: melee previsions vadat would compel the Reich to:
*) to surrender to the Iutrir-Alltad Military hrmistice
Commission the watt** ialrentory (inoludints arohlvos) of
slOmizetions* list of whiCh Will be handed over to
Ma Asiob
t) to riummotruet at Ueraan
Jaktmot an un4tr Allied
stela taw Ill:martial, of otganUationo viblob the deiok
10414 elAtm to be wisvAlleble (0#44 OA accQuat of bmting11)#
talUOWAt tc ttidli A411** 415t0114040Ut We period of oOttti-
I** tt 0# turias #####, roti tea oopieo or ovary printed
?-?-?5.5???????-,-...?????41.?????.????.???
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npriacsified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Jo
Release 2013/10/21: CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
publi4ation) similarly to what Is done in most countries in raga
to Us Department of Interior (so-called "exelAplaires oblige-
toiree).
di in ease or non-4beervance by the :latch, appropriate sanctions
ebo4ld WI
ody of conclusicn let it be eaid that thir report aDOS not
pretend to te complete. Its at is simply to bring up a pmblem,
? serlousaess of whiot is obvious end in wIlich a very large number
or United Nettinms 13 simultaneously in1;erestad.
This is ;:,-ae morn necessary as is dontt believe in being opti-
mistit es to the program of reeducation of the Gras after this
war. L.-arc are too rens,Jns for this nttitude:
in the first place, in order that it may be possible to rsalizol
a provsat of re-education conceived in advance there must be above
all WA iden:Gical outloot or liTe =lone, the re-educators. LA other
worts it would be necessary that the Groat Powers which will have
tbelir salt in this mitter shoul4 tialm viewm on the *Weltansohsuune
similar to 'Wise they Would want tc see accepted by the Germany
of UMOITOW* YV4(.440A a the press or censorship? Divoyaity of
politteml portim* of? OA Us contrklry, a mono-party system? indi-
viotualiam or at:riot tState,g-oontrol? The ex? the problems of
pirtaary bukortattat ors which th otaiitiv ot today should vs 131 aocord
Wass sattentas 1213ou thm raPoceillest4Ioa of the Osman "bad boy" who
0144a0d s0_pia04 1014.44 1039! Tu pose tills question
ts uivai*At solvlus 4010tiesc 1D8 pessimistic acmes. x)
litt IFA t* *$I$
is rarity IS
frinier to ?grails Vito
r.;:oa.OLo
oolo:
tr....,
tclr)tv
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001Rnnn1nn97nnna 7 tit
MIWVMWONA
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aessles it would seem that if it takfqs or d years to cruaL
the III i4eich by ;lacing at the dieposal oT a defensive war of a11
millet energies in maziower and war materiel - how many more years
J.1.1 be aleedsd to reeducate the aermans? Among them 13 million
st win and Eitler youth htiv40 joyously entered the war in 199.
4ae;ril shall be; finix them after they have gone undorGrouu.4 following
uhe 4s:cat of' ai ler which, ey Shall natter forgive ual t eems
;otalble ;o contri.11 a factory cr even statistics, but ftow much
!wro mo4i4 tt oa to co%trol tneJ ttl-)Ilet 13 nationalist
ita t olf more or lest; secret societies or the,
iposti-TerseilIes period elermtta one to anticiate th(1L the Allics
will 044W aeniust a camourlaged orgauizationo more
*glen Inc ormIdable then the iast time z;uch powerful means
would hareto bgavel, such a long time would be demanded end
aoote eil age strong will 4::4 tut part a the United Notions,
14,4*tt otnt all4W4imiblit to be peatamlutiOt
a tiot contZM7ft it ie-ceitain theta to /secure peace, there
gill In tate Nitwit; to investigitto k)ermaal lltariom
rmis 1.44 also Um militaristic etty or tAintango
Lot6i uot tberoricre tie re.ieduoation to the conjuncture
ivent-0 sed d* first Wage firm*, by ecceptia$ the thosiS taat
14 I* net stuttieleway *fp:lipped to fee* the danger of
palut le tI vieUoricus Ao?ionx, ounecicius
of tro.ttAttiie 4V1 be their tortorrow, bo prepared to fulfill
Lao to* of orsom lag Wip. lonmitigstion of kivemaA !utters on 411
ftal2e4t *WOW. At i* tikt obollisrOt 44amnay w4lobs dcuriA6 sad
t*SI *414 bort* to ** 11444044 the opeonomio, finimaimI0
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
social, ml,itary, geop3iiidosit histalloo-politica.1 ,ermu4y, etc,
witt ell of its tAinKing az d program of expansion* Before even
starting W reeducate - it is necessary to know tho
Is to be reeducated*
1?444
Prof. Or, U. Potulicki
vecretary General, inter-Aliied
Research Committee, London.
itasniagton, %iculbsr 16, 1944*
Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
7:ut Brig. Gen. sl.t.liam J. Donovan
&Woleott Setablishing contacts with Catholic units in Germany
for the atintestactoe of social order after military
defeat or the XasisQ
..*
The inevltable crushing defeat of Xitler's armies will be followed by
Susi-directed querrilla warfare against Allied forces completing the occu-
potion
at Gorsany. Mist resistance, too, will be wiped out, and the Nazi
gmper.metructlre of totalitarian government will collapse completely. its
rennamt,s, probcb4 mow of its arch-felons? will by then Lave crawled into
hidivirs? from xhiCh, to direct subversive activities against the occupying
forces themselves and to worry an a reign of underground terror against
Germene oallaboratiug with the occupation authorities in maintaining civil
peace mad order.
The administration of Germany by the Allied armies of occupation will
it the vary start be seriously impeded, in sone areas completely ob3tructed4
by the water of socia/ unrest accompanying the downfall of Nazi rule. more
Use 12 years of absolute regimentation of Qerman life, and of ruthLess per-
secution at all opposition even in Germany proper, have repressed so many
otoonter.ferces owl accumulated such a volume of hatred, revenge, and the like,
that O. loreakieg of the Semi whip, in ignominious defeat, may likely be the
rival for an outbreak at bloody retribution and complete social chaos.
Segura*** at any other considerations, anarchy in tiermany during Allied
cemtrol should be previmted, ar eitigated as much as possible, for the reason
that if It become rampant, it will add to our burden of effort and casualties,
mill prolong the occupation itself, and will be used by an elements to dis-
t** estsbliahmant of European peace and lawful government by democratic
ewes.
This poses the problem of Identifying and of contacting individual uermans
sr units tkat 41*M les absolutely relied upon as nuclei of social otabLlity and
44 supporters of law and order under Allied control. gy principle ani tradition,
V* Chrtitican *arches stand forth prOminent in thie regard. rresent concern
M4 be de meal with German Catholt4s, 9ho in 1933 represented approximate4
ooto-tard fot tke total pepulatian uf Germany proper, The proportion of Caelics
moo even Larger in oertain parts of Gomm; it was approximately 70 percent
ZS Revitrin, 54 is Soden, 91 in the Prussian province of nestphalia, and 67 per.
npriassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
cent in the Rhine erovinte. The 1935 census for the :Aar slowed ev,t. ribout
72 percent of that population wal.s Catholic. the population of former .-.1.189..ria
irso. also velly large4 Ca.tholic while the imposition by forte of veal anti-
;;.athalic idecagies an the one hand, and on the other the suppression of re-
ligious education and of the Catholic press, the expulsion of bishops, the
imprisomment of priests, and the direct and indirect persecution of the faith,.
ful bay* undoubtadAy tended to reduce and weaken the relative numbers of uetho.
lice in Germagy? nevertheless a large sub-stratAna remains. This 1,cd-rock or
Catholicism cast if prudently supplanted, be used to prevent or mialtaize ciril
disorder* &Id te ftrther self-administration.
1.- The foremost difficulty involved in the problem is to establish con-
tacts with most careem14 selected German Catholic leaders and to work out a
procedure for developing and supporting staunch local units in kiermagy many
of these leaders, both clerics and laymen, are in hiding or in exile. A8 a
first step, lists of names could be developed by consulttug with certain uhurch
dignitaries in the United States, and ether countries, if need be, including
the Proviacials of religion* orders represented in uiereany. Such a list would
have te be supplemented and checked in the Vatican City and Home, and also in
eme er more Catholic centers in Switzerland. Cirect contact with some of these
Cathelin reugees from Germam as for Instance, the Jesuit Filither auckermann
in Some ) Should prat* helpful in developing lists of reliable persons still
im Oommegy? for properly identifying them, and for obtaining an acquaiatanne
pith their activities.
trot among the select vexes, a certain number would he expected to work
Lit close collaboration with the representativea of 0 S 6, in order to develop
tko nicemsary ears and means for establishing contacts in Germany and to give
rirstAand assistance in the preptration of materials for distribution and in
properly 1indootrinating4 and equipping thoee who eventut,14 would work in
Cermagy. Workshops for thee, activities would presumab4 he located In Switz-
er:LW, et lone, and also ill conjunction with Military Inteiliglnce and with
Siblk, I/raw:owl Advisory Comalusion.
2 Gelman prisoners of ear, ascertained to be Gatholica and carefully
seleoted om tne heals of trustworthiness, might well yield a fund of infor-
Mating concerning who's who in their native cities, towns, parishes, std
ileigAkewtoods. Such information scald of course be checked and orosa-checked,
viltk Allied Military intelligence and with the Gellman collatoratora,? Sample
Wermation of Ulm kind could first be gotten in P 0 W tempt in this country.
A tamitsravd mars up.to.data fund of Wormation would become available from
prtSonars takin in the last stages of breaking down bald resistance.
It- Tres* &II the eources indioated there must be developed a register of
prorsama# units, and gromps oc.d s %/Allelic intelligence directory" to guide
Is* IA 10,10.1Ng tellable contacto within Gmany? This raises the second questbn
;
44-001
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Declassified and Approved For Release 2013/10/21 : CIA-RDP13X00001R000100270008-7
aZ tbe prableal, that of selecting oar representativee :'or the delicate thak
ot beennie.g tboae cohtacts in Germany and of further dispersing our influence.
&parlance in the field and in the preparatory "workshops" must be relied upon
to give the answers. If our own group includes Germen-zpeaking chaplains and
Military Intelligence officers and if the refugees to be acquired as co-workers
vill also include both priests and laymen, the persons best suited to each par-
ti=lAtz task would tot be difficult to selec
4.- The substance of the program of developing support fc,r the Aa.lied
occupation authorities on the side of German Catholics, and the plans ror its
detailed ft:striation 5. must also he developed in the workshop stage, beginning
immodiate4 after the first consultations with German eatholic leaders in
exile. that to do and how to proceed oat best be determined on the basis of
carettill vtairsis e each rogional or lac*/ situatiou.
--",???"'"
5.- The taxes of refervnce itcluded a point about German-speaking personnel,
inelwiking siwetarT-typistal, for the American groups Surely, Military intelli-
gence ftnd th* Civil Serviee Commission could comb the Liolotrnment Vepartment8 and
aguncies for suitable material. Officers and chaplains stationed at 9 0 W camps
**mid also be abie to furnlaw names of enlisted men or women viith a speaking
err good working knowledge of German. induction centers in certain areas, as in
the Riddle Mesta sey be expected to furnish additional material from which to
*elect the sere promieing.
rer the litmk in E4rope, it mill be advisable to allow for additions even
to the clerical staff from seletted foreigners, Their background and their mere
intimate knowledge of current Zuropeen affairs and local matters may prove
isval.mblei to the American staff,
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