JPRS ID: 8386 TRANSLATIONS ON JAPAN

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• Collection: JPRS
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000100040022-2
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V ~
9 APR ; L~ 9 C FOUO i2l79 ~ i OF i
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9 Apri~ 1979
I
~ ~
TaANSLATIaNS ON JAPAN
~FOUO l2/79)
U. S. JOINT PUBLICATIONS RESEARCH SERdICE
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- JPRS L/838G
~ 9 Apri~. 1.9 79
TRANSLATIONS ON JAPAN
. (FOUO 12/79)
r
~ -
CONTENTS . PAGE
PoLrrzcaL arm socro~zca~
Ohira To TeLt Carter Japan Will Aid ~Refl~gee Center~ P1an -
( YONLIZktI SHINBUN, 21 Mar ?9 ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 _
~ASA$I~: Jap~.n Againat Tokyo Bummit Adopting Role-Sharing =
F1an
~ASAxI EYEAtIN(~ NEws, 16 1~r 79) 2
~ARANT~ Editor: ~1,ikuda Biding Time for Comeback
( Jutaro Tsuchida; ASAHI EV~3~IING NEWS, 20 Me~r 79 4
Japan Selects Eaergy Problems To Be Discuased at Tokyo
Sur~it
(N~iON KEIZAI SHINBUN, 18 N1Qr 79) 6
ECONOMIC _
Japanese Organization Sees Danger of Infl.ation
~r~rrzc~ nauY x~as, 2o rsar 79) 8 -
Chamber of Coimnerce Preaident Urges n Market -
. (NIAINICHI LIAILY NEWS, 6 Mar 79~ 10
Strategic Attitude Urged To Trade Balance Iseue
(MAINICHI LIAILY N~IS, ~6 ~r 79) 12 _
~ More Power Plant Investment Planned
(MAINICHI DAI.LY NEWS, 16 Mar 79) 13
Japan Industry on Upward Trend in Plant Investment
(NIHaN KEIZAI~SHIl~TBUN, 12 Mar 79? 15
'MAINICHI' on China's Decision To Defer Japaneae Plant Imports -
(MAINICHI SHINBUN, 18 Mar 79) 16
Japan Begins To Study Joint Aid Program for Egypt -
(NIHON KEIZAI SHINBUN, 18 Mar 79) 17 �
' a- IIII - ASIA - 111 FOUO~ -
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CONTENTS (Continued) Page
Brie fe
Mining Pact Wi~h USSR 18
1~oint Uranium Enrichment Proposal. 18
Sovie~ ~11rJ.3ne ~opoeai i8
Auetrallan Ore ~i~e~ ig
Cardboard for PRC 19
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLO(~Y '
~BUNf~EI BHUNJU',Discussea Outlook for Science a.nd Technology
. ( Hiroahi Taksuchi Interview; BiJNaE2 SHUD~TU~ ~eb 79 20
Problems in Research, Development ,
Fliture of Flectronics
Stee1 Industry . _
Chemicals Manufacture
_ Briefs .
New Transiator ~ 44
- b - -
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POLITICAL ,AND SQCIOLOaICAL
OHIRA TO TELL CARTER JAPAN WILL AID 'REFUGEE CENTER' PLAN
Tokyo XOMIURI SHIMBUN in Japanese 21 Mar 79 morning edition p 3 OW
[Text) A governmenC source said on 20 March that Prime Miniater Ohira has
deci.ded to indicate, tiuring hie talke wiCh U.S. President Carter echeduled
for early Mny, Japan's readineas Co extend wholehearted support, including
- financial~aid and technical cooperation~ Por the conetruction of a"Cemporary
reception center for Indochinese refugees" which has been propoaed by the
AesociaCion of�Southeaet Asian Nationa (ASEAN).
Ohira made his decision on the basis of the following conclusions: 1) the
U.S. Administration and Congreae have shown increasing concern over the Indo-
. chinese refugees isaue not only for humanitarian reaeons but aleo from the
� viewpofnC of Southeaet Aaian aecurity; 2) b~cauae of thie tendency, Japan
may be aub~ect to harsher criticiam for its negative attitude toward accep-
tance of refugees (for permanent residence) and the propoaed center =
standa a,good chance of being establiahed under the ASEAAi's initiative, and
Japan, which attachee importance to ASEAN nationa in its foreign policy, _
ahoqld actively deal with the plane ~
~ The prime miniaCer plgna to conv~y this intention to U.S. Go~ernment leadPra
through.Foreign Miniater Sonoda whe~ he visita Waehington on 5 April. A~ter
detei~ining the amount of aid as soon as detai2.s of the plan for the center
are made available, he intenda to present the Japaneee aid plan himeelf when
he meeta Preaident Carter.
COPYRIGHT: Yomiuri Shinbunaha, 1979
CSO: 4105
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POLZTICAL AND SOCIOLO~ICAL , �
,
~ ~ 'ASAHI'': JA,PAN AGAINST TOKYO SUI~IIT ADOPTING ROLE-SHARING PLAN ~ -
Tokyo ASAHI EVENING NEWS in Englieh 16 Mar 79 p 1 OW
_ . [Ter.t) Japan will propose that the Tokyo aummiC o# ma~or induaCrial demo-
craciea in June should not ~ollow the example of laet year's Bonn aummit by _
again adopting a role-eharing lormula in which the participating countries
set forth Cheir targete in figures, gover~ent sources said Thuraday.
~The proposal will be made at the firat preparatory meeting fox the Tokyo eum- ~
mit to be held here on March 22 and 23, the aourcea said. �
The sources aleo diaclosed that the govermnent will announce ite intention
of playing a central role in writing the sections of a sun~it declaration on _
~ energy and the north-south problem.
Th~ government haa already adivsed personal repreaentatives~of the foreign
leaders who will participate in the Tokqo swcmit of its atand against adopt- �
- ing the role-sharing formula. Weat Germany and eome other cduntriea report- _
edly have expreased their approval.
- But this proposal, together with a U.S. proposal for the ad~uetment of the
� indusCrial structurea of the participating nations, is expected to~prove ~
controversial: ' ' .
The role-aharing formula was adopted at the Bonn 8ummit with the idea that
. efforts of the "three engines" of the United States, Japan and ~Ieat Germany
~ would not bP sufficient to put the world econamy on a normal pat11. -
Weat Germany promieed additional budgetary measuree equivalent to up to one
~ percent of �ts groes national product. FYance undertook to increase the
= fiscal 1978 etate budget deficiE bq an amouat equivalent, to about 0.5 percent
~ of ita GNP. Japan pledged seven percent economic growth in fiecal 1978. The
_ United States promised to put into effect by the end of 1978 meaeuree to
cut its oil importa by about 2.5 million barrele a day by 1985: -
The government now points out: 1) the need for the participating countriea -
. to set forth their growth targete at the Tokqo a~momit has become less urgent
~
2 ' .
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as tha economies of thesUni~ed Staeea, ,Tapan, Ttaly and other counkries are
- ateadily improv3ng, 2) the U.5. energy law to mnke posaible a reduction in
oil importe hae been paseed, nnd Che emphneis with reapect Co energy has
ewitched to working out a common o~1 con~ervation program. ~
In view of theae ahangea, tihe goverrnnene feele ~hat Che participaCing lead- -
ere should try to reach a consenaus on medium- and long~term etructural
changes in the world economy at the Tokyo swnmi~, rather than epe11 out
Cheir short-term Cargets.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Governmene has in~ormally proposed the creation of a
atanding coneultAtive body, ro be composed mainly.of former government of-
~icials, to discuse economic iseues between Japan and the United States,
- government sourcea revealed Thuraday.
The propoaed panel will explore ways o~ stabilizing bilateral economic rela- _
tiona on a medivm~ and long-term basis. Whether or not economiG friction -
. between the U.S. and Japan can be resolved could determine the auccess or
~ failure of the Tokyo summit.
The creation of the body will he formally proposed by Henry Owen, President
Jimmy Carter's apecial represenCatives, who wi11 arrive here in one or two -
' days for the firat preparatory meeting for the Tokyo sumouit.
COPYRIGHT: Asaha Even3ng News, 1979
CSO: 4120
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POLITICAL AND SOCIQLOGICAL
~ 'ASAHI' EDITOR: ~ FUKUDA BI:AING TIME FOR COMEBACK '
Tokyo ASAHI EDENING NEWS 3n En~lish 20 Mar 79 p 3 OW ,
~ [Article b~y Jutaro Teuchida, ussistant political newe editor of the ASAHI.
SHIMBUN] � ~
[Text] Former Prime Miniater Takeo Fukuda apparently intenda to rut~ again
for the preaidency af the ruling Liberal~-Democratic Party next year if the
circumstances are favorable, although he will not $ay so., '
- . Y.e has regained confidence about his health, and his polltical activities are _
hec~tic. He began a full-ecale nationwide stwnping tour early thia month. He
attended laet week's rally in support of the LDP--Centrist gubernatorial candi- "
date for Tokqo as the proxy of Prime Minister Masayoshi Ohira. _
_ In January, Fukuda formally revived his LDP faction and set up an office'for
- party refoxm within the.group. He is said to be busy as when he wae�in power.
_ It is clear that he ia preparing for aomething, but he will not reveal hie
_ ' target. . ~ " , _
; . '
Fuku.ia criticized Ohi~a's leaderahip in a gatheriag of'his fac~ion last month,
- ~and in a subsequent m~eting, he said: "I was not defeated (in last year'.~ _
LDP presidential election)., I have not retired from politics." This was
' Caken as hinting that he intends to run. again for the top LDP post next year. -
, ~ .
~ But he back'tracked~later. As he kicked off his nationwide stumping tour, he
did not say anything that might be taken a~ an attack on Ohir~.~ He hae also :
remarked that it is not correct to label his faction as antimainetream and
that his bond of truet with Ohira�remains unchanged.
" The mood within the Fukuda faction is strongly c~itical of Ohira. The ~ukuda
- group and the factions headed by Yasuhiro Nakaeone, who also lost to Ohira
- in last year's LDP presidential contest, and by former Prime Minieter'Takeo
- Miki try to rock the boat whenever an,opportunity presents itaelf, but tt~ey
are far from being close enough to move together againet Ohira. 4
~ .
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Under the cirCUmatancea~ ~ukuda c~me out clearly againeC Ohixa aow he
~ ~would proba6Xy ~ind himael,~ i.~olated. -
- This makes Fukuda ao guarded ~n his remarka and actio~a that even ranking
membera of his faction comp~ain they cannoC ~Eathom what he has in mind.
~
' A drive to recruit new LDP membera, votere in the preeidential primariea, -
_ muaC be launched now if Fukuda ia to get himaelf elected ae tHe party head '
next y.e~r. ,
But Fukuda would riot say whether he would or would not run. In the abaence
- of a,clarification from him, the ~uicuda group cannot etart a recruitment
campaign.
A~unior member of the ~act~.an, woxried ahout the eituation, recently called -
on Fulcuda and urged him to clarify whether he~would run or not. ~'ukuda
reportedly t~ld him: "It's not necessary for me to say anything. You know -
- what I have in mtnd, don't you"? Tt is said that the ~un3or legialatar -
rushed back to his conatituency and is work~ng hard to recruit new party
members who will voCe for Fukuda.
Despite his profesaed bond o~ trust with Ohira, there ie no queation that
' Fukuda really has no intention o~ cooperating with him to prop up hie govern-
ment. ' -
A man very close to gukuda, probably echoing what the former premier thinka,
- . says: "Ohira is gearing the running of the party entirely #or his victory
in next ~ear's presidential elecCion. He spends party funds 3n ways that
only his men benefit.. He says he consults wi.th Fukuda on all important
matters, but what he actually did about the choice of the LDP candidates -
for the Eovernorship of Tokyo and the lower house speakerahip was merely
to seek'Fukuda's approval of his decisians. It was not a consultat~.on, -
merely a notification.
- "Ohira also says.he consulted with Fukuda about his decision to let the fis-
cal 1979 national budget be voted down in the lower houae budget committ~e, _
but no word came from him. So, Fukuda has no obligation to cooperate with
- Ohira."
For the time being, Fukuda will keep a detach~ed watch on Ohira's perfornaance
in~dealing with various issuea, ~implying cri~ticism from time to time. He ~
� will manifest an anti-Ohira stance and make a bid for a comeback when ~ie
feels there are prospects for his victory in ~the 19E0 presidential election.
This is apparently what Fukuda has in mind.
COPYRIGHT: Asahi Evening News, 1979
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLQGiCAL. ~
f
JAPAN SELECTS ENERGY PROBLEMS TO BE DISCUSSED AT TOKYO BUMMIT .
Toicyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIMBUN in Japaneae 18 Max 79 morning edition p 1 OW
[Excerpt] In connec~ion with the forthcoming Tokyo sutmnit con~erence, Japan ~
� has been tentatively aesigned Che taeke of making preparations for the aum- _
mit discuasiona on energy probleme and drgfting the portion dealing with
energy and nrncith-south probleme oP a~oint communique to be iseued at the
~ 'close of the conference.. In this connection government off3cials, mainly~of
, the Foreign rtinistry, the Ministry of Intiernational Trade and Industry and _
- ~ the Reaources and Energy Agency, have begun to aelect topi~csto be ~taken up _
in discussions on energy problems and aub~ ecte to be included in the ~oint ~ _
communique, . , ~
According to a government source, in discusaion held eo far theee officials
- ~ have.virtuallq agreed that in order to cope with the petroleum ehortage ;
resulting from the T.ranian political upheaval and the rising petroleum
prices, it tiae become necessary for the ma~or industrial nationa to. coop~rate
- atill more cloaelq in implementing a~ofnt energq strategy. Oa the~basis.ot ~
- this ~udgment, they have dQcided to call for "the implementa~ion of..a coopera-
tive enesgy atrategy":as a key issue~at the aummit conference.. The J$panese _
Gover~ent.has.already.conveyed thia idea to the United Statea and other -
_ countries concerned. Officials,of various gov~ernment~ agencies have recent- ; _
ly begun to dis~ues concrete aspects of the cooperative energy atrategy to .
be undertaken by, these countries. ~ . ~ � . "
These offictala will divide their discussiona into two categories: i~ediate _
- measures and.long-range strategy.� IQmmediate meaeures involve the question _
of how to deal with the worldwide fear of unstable petrolevm supply and the -
petroleum-producing countriea; offeneive for higher oil prices. A~cording _
. to the same government eourcea, there seems to be no alternative for oi1-
consuming nations but to do their best to implement the international ~energy -
- agency deciaion to reduce petroleum coneumption by 5 percent ao that they
can w~rd off the oil shortage and the pressure for higher oil prices.
- As for long-term strategy, Japan will atreas that now ia the time~for all
advanced nations to study.and develop in earnest energy sources o~her than -
pe'troleum. More specifically, first, the pxevailing view is that'Japan
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- ehould propoae the creation af a"~o~.nt reaearch and dPVelopment organiza-
tion" to conduct research and development woxk on coal liquefact3on and nu-
clear ~usion by poo].~.ng mone}r an~d perqonnel in order to develop energy aour-
ces other. Chan petroleum. This organizaCion w~ll be 3r~dependent from the IEA.
Japan, the Uni~ed States and West Gerniany have already launched a~oint coal =
- liquefacx3on pro~ect. But the new org~nization will be aimed at cxeating
_ a comprehenaiv~ ~oint energy research and development system in which varioua
cauntries, includi,ng France, which is not an IEA member, wi11 participate in
_ developing new energy sources including coal liquefacti.on.
= Second, Japan plane to propase that the IEA strengthen its research and de-
- velopment function and apeed up the tempo of reaearch and development so =
that eolar heat and wind energy can be put to practical uae at an early date.
At the same time, Japan will propoae creation of a syetem by which various ~
countries will exchange informatton oi~ the reaulta of their independent ener-
gy research and development pro~ecta so that they can indirectly assiat~the
- IEA's research and development acti.vities.
Third, Japan and aome c,rher countries will cgll for the full utilization of
atomic energy. At present, Japan ia virtually prohibited from building nu-
clear fuel plants for producing enriched uranium for use in atomic power
planCs and building spent nuclear ~uel reproceasing plants on grounds that -
the building of these plants will lead to nuclear proliferation. The INFACE _
(International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Eva~luation] is currently working on a
basic framework to overcome this bottleneck. Japan will call on other coun- _
tries to cooperate in reaching an early canclusion on this issue.
No ob~ection is expected to be raised to the Japaneae Govermnent's call fr,r =
a long~-range "cooperative energy strategy," but there is the possibility =
that the Japanese short-term proposals will be criticized as being rather
ltikewarm. ~
_ COPYRIGHT: Yomiuri Shinbunsha, 1979
CSO: 4105 _
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" ECONOMIC '
JAPANESE ORGANIZATION SEES DANGER OF INFLATIUN
Tokyo MAINIC~iI DAILY NEWS ~.n Engliah 20 Mar 79 p 5 OW
[Text] A leading econamic organi.zaCi.on, Keizai Doyukai (.Tapan Committee for -
Economic Developmen~,,warned Monday o~ an imminent spur.t o~ inflation and
' urged businesaes to.increase production to forestall both runaway inflation
_ and the inaet of a tight muney policy. _
Keizai Doyukai said the price issue ~as already became serious enough t~
cammand serious attention although there is at311 some feeling that the re~ -
cent price spiral is not so serious because it is a compounded resulCs of
1) overseas i::Flation, 2) rebouncing of the domestic wholesale prices which
= had been depressed, and 3) is a normal ph~nomenon in a time of econom3c re- -
covery. ' _
The situation fs very similar Co that ~ust before the inset of runaway in-
, flation of 1973, Keizai Doyukai said, in that international market prices
are zooming, the world economy is on the rise, doLieatic land and stock pri-
_ ces are rising, oil prices are riaing, and m~ney supply is increasing.
However, the massive issuance of govermuent bonds has,made it extremely dif-
- ficult to control money supply. In this respect the situation is quit~ dif- -
~ ferent from 1973. ~ -
The current inflationary trend in Japan is largely c~used by zooming inter- _
national market prices and the slippage of. the yen. T~ao other ma~or infla- _
- tion causes are the sustained massive bond issuance and business reluctance
- to boost production. _
Although there is still roughly a 15 percent gap between overall supply and
� demand in the manufacturing sector, the slow producXion boost could push up -
prices as demand easily overtakes production.
~ According to Keizai Doyukai that was exactly what happened in the 1973 run-
away inflation. Furthermore, at that time there was about a 10 percent gap
between demand and supply. -
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_ Thn curr~nt t~pturn in whnleaale pri.c~~ will, wtth Cime lag, pugh up th~ con~
aumer pricee and could probably in~lgt~ pny rai~e demande.
To foreeCall euch ~n tni�letionary chnin reaction, Keizai Doyukai eaid ehe
_ moneCary auChorieiee ehould avoi~ a eCrong Cighti money policy auch ae u
raise in the offic3al diecounC rnte.
_ The government should aleo delay the implementa~ion of pubYic workg pro~-
~ ecte in fisca~. 1979 which begin on April 1. Pub].ic worke expendit~ree ahnuld
- be curbed to some extent.
With reduced expenditurea~ the big businese' club eaid, the governmenC bond '
isauance volwne should be trimmed ~a much ee pogeible.
. ,
~ If continued isauance ot bonde ie nec~seary, new bonda ehould hAVe g ehorter
roaeurt3y period than the current 10 year~. _
Ae the same time, the monetary authoriti~s ~hould ~ntabligh gnd ehow ehe ear-
_ gee zone of money aupply, as in Europe and the U.S., to deepen public under-
etandin~ of price trenda, Keizai Doyukai advocnCed.
The organization urged the gwercm~ent to take every measure to foil moves
_ Co reap windfall proPits ae price rieea abroad inevit~bly filter into domestic
prices one way or anoCher and profiteere are quick to take t~dvantage. -
COpYRIGHT: tainichi Daily NeWa, 1979
CSO: 4120
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~ CONOMI C
CfU~MB~it OF COMMEItC~ P~
~IDENT URiG~S OpEN MAEtKET
Tokyo MAINICHI DAILY NEWS in Engliah 6 Mar 79 p 5 -
IText~ Japan ghould errive Co trim iCe gYOwit?g surplus in the currenC
gccounr by fureher opening up iee m$rkeC--t?amely furth~r'liberalizstion of
agricultural product importg and allowing foreign manufaceurere to bid fo~r
pxocurementa by governmental organizationa, urged Shigeo Nageno, president
of the Japan Chamber of Cammerce and Industr~, Thureday.
The JCCI president eaid the aurplus ieaua which hae become a major inCer-
- national problem could noC be eol~ed by Japan alone. The problem also
stems from tha industrial and trade atructurea of Japan's Crade partnere, ~
he said. '
Nagano said it ia not Japan alone that must be blamed for the current trade
frictions but also ita trading parwnera. Half of the causes of friction are
mieundaratandinge and a lack of understanding of the Japanese economy on
the part of trade partners, he said.~
The JCCI president made the~e remarke at the opening of the 49th general
~ agsembly of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Induatxy.
He said the whole for instance Japaneae socio-economic syatem needa to be
streamlined by, for instance, sn,~lcing a drastic revision of import controls
or? agricultural producta ~rhose price levels~are much higher than the
international market prices. ,
Anticipated tight eupply of oil and price riaea dictate that the country
expediCe development of nuclear power generatiou ao that the unavailability
of oil will not impede the int~rnational competitiveneas of Japaneae products,
he said. ~
The economic train is pulling out of the prolonged recesaion tunnel and into
the open, he said, although the tail-end is still in the tunnel.
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~
An up~urn ~.e ~eett in privaee coneumpCion, inveet~a?enre in i.nventoriee and
equipmenti, and output and ehipn~ente havo b~gun Co pick up, he agid. -
However, he continued, the econompr ie beeet with a m~~or problem of
unemployme~nti, particularly that of eeni,or aged ~orkera. Coupled with a -
_ general price epiral trend, anticipnted nil price markupe, and declining -
J~paneee exporte, he cguCioned, the eiCuaticn warrante tto optimi.em for
buefnesa.
Turning Co the controvereial domestic ieaue of a ganeral excise Cax (value- ~
ndded Cax) acheme, the JCCI preaident called on the government to exercige
_ the utmoet prudence.
The.preaident of L�he retailera' organization eaid rectificaCion of the
exietirig unfai.r taxation eyatem, recons~lidation of adminisrra~ive machinery, _
and'budge~ economizing aiuat precede the ealea tax introduction.
Bven afCer auch etreamlining, the introductian ahould respect Che conaenaus
opinion of the general public, he etresged.
During the one-day ass~mbly, all the offi,cers of the JCCI were reelected -
and gpecial advisere were recommiagioned. As n reault, Nagano entered his
sixth eCraighC two-year term of office.
~~OPYRIGHT; Mainichi Daily News, 1979
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~CONOMIC -
STItAT~?GIC ATTITUD~ URGED TO TEtADE BALANC~ T55UE ,
' Toliyo MAINICHI bAILY N~WS in Englieh 16 Mar 79 p 6
(Text~ Parliamentary vice minietere geked the government Thursday not.'Co
yieTd easily and unehinkiugly to U.S. demande for Japanese action Co correct
th~ bilateraY trade imbalance.
.Spenking aC a regular meeting of parliamenCary vice miniatere~ Yoehiro
Hayashi, parliamentary vice �inance miniater, said the government should
deal with Che U.S. demands from an overall etrategic viewpoin~. '
The government ahould not deal with the U.5. dem~ands individ~slly, he eaid.
The view was gupported by Seiichi Kataok~, parliamentary vice agriculture,
. forestry and fieheriee miniater, and Ichiro Kataoka, Farliamentary vice
minieter of international trade and induatry.
Motoharu Arimg, parliamentary deputy director general of the Defense Agency,
said, meanwhile that Che Japaneae Dietmen ehould conduct thorough diecussiona _
wi.th U.S. congressmen on economic problema betaeen the two countriea. .
� But ~n holding euch coneultationa', he said, they ehould limit topice of
discusaion to overal2 problema. '
Hieaoki Kamei, parliamentary vice miniater of poste and telecon~aunicntiona,
eaid the government ahould establieh a coordinatfng machinery to deal wiCh
U.S. demanda on an integrated baBie. �
OOPYRIGNT: Mainichi Daily NeWe, 1979
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~CONOMIC
t~1tG~ . PO~Wgit PLAN'P INVESTMENT PLANNED
Tokyo HfAiNxCHI DAYLY N~WS in gnglieh.l6 Mar 79 p 6
~Text~, ThQ Japanese buainese community and the ruling Liberal-DenwcraCic
_ ParCy agreed Thuraday to erep up imeetmenta in power plante in figcal -
1979, ron, to bring bueineae recovery inCo full swing. _
1"he agreeme~C came gt a top~level bueinesa�LDP meeting in Tokyo. It was f_
_ artended by legders of the four ma~or economic organizaCions, including
Toehiwo boko, preaidenC of tho Federation of ~conomic Organizatione
(Keidanren). ~ -
The LDP delegate~ iacluded Toshio Komoto, chairman of the Policy Affgirs
_ Reaearch Council.
. Busineag recovery was the main topic.
Doko ~aid bueiness ia recovering, and that the government~a big budget and
active investments in power plante have aerved as a ma~or driving force.
Ke aeked the LDP leaders to further atep up investmente in power plants in -
~fiacal 1979 ae well. ~
Komoto replied that active.invesCmenta in power plenta would continue to
- be made in fiecal 1979.
Referring to the proposed general exci8e tax, the chief LDP policymalcer said,
"~Ie hope to establiah the tex in fiacal 1980, but the details have not been
worked."
He added that now is the time to make every effort to put buainees recovery
~ into full s~ring. If recovery doea go into full swing, corporate tax
revenues would increase, making it unneceasary to impose a high�rate
general ~~cciee tax, Komoto said.
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Shig~d Nagano, pregidene nf the Jap~gn Chamber of C~mmerne and Indu~Cry,
eaid th~ti eh~re id ~ strong opinion emong ~maller bueinessee ~geinae Che
inaritueiot~ o~ thae tex. He called for increased effort~ to abeain Che
- aone~ne of ~he people ae largn Co the plan. ~
- Komoto and party s~cre~ary general Kunikichi Sai~o replied ~h~C Che parCy _
wau~d erilce a c~uCious eCand on Che m~teer.
, CoPYRIGNT: M,ainichi Dgily Newa, 19y9
- CSO: G120
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~CONOMIC ~
,~APAN INDUSTRY aAi UPWARD 'TRLND IN PI.AN'r INV~5TMENT
Tokyo NIHON KE~ZAI SHTNBUN in Japaneee 1~ Mar 79 moxning editiun p 1 OW
[Ezcer~ts~ A etudy of investment plane in the pxiv~t~ induatrial eector in-
d~CQCEg fihtiC Che nation'e manufacturing indugtry thi~ year ia ~ikely to ex-
c~ed its 1978 l~ve1 3n outlay tor plante a~id equipment. A"survey of in-
duetries' inveeting, financial and producing capabilities" for 1979, based
on a poll of:1,393 ~irma in the privete eector conducted bq the NIHON KLIxAI
~ 5HUMBUN coicpany, pro~ect8 en increase of 3.1 percent in plant-equipment in-
- �~vestment over lagt year's level. The manufacturing indu~try alone is ex-
~ plecred to regieter ~ 3.6 percent gein in thnt ar~a.
For the firet time in 5 yeare the manufacturing induatry aill ~how an upward
trend in this area;.eteel, chemical and textile induetries have refrained
from apending money on plante and equipment during this time. Meanwhile, a8
a reeult of a leveling off in inveetment in the electric paver induetry, out-
l~qs for planta and equipment by nonmanufacCuring induetries will eho~ a re- -
~ lativ~ely s1oW gtowth of 2.7 percent over the 1978 level.
Included among the major factora contributing to the upi+ard trend in the manu-
facturing industry are 7.4 p~rcen~t in ateel induatry, 5.4 percent in chemi-
c~l induatry, 7.2 percent in textile induatry, and 5.8 percent in nonferroua
metallurg~cal induetry.
_ ~Jr? the other hand, automobile and electric appl~ance induetriee~ ahich played
a leading role in thie area in recent yeare, appear to have reached plateaue
. noW. Othen~ise, the upWard trend could be even more decisive.. -
COPY1tIGHT: Nihon Keizai 5hinbunsha, 1979
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'MAINICHI' ON CHINA'S DLCISYON TO DEFER JAPANESE PLANx IMPO1tT5 .
Tokyt~'MAINICHI 5HINBUN in Japaneee 18 Mar 79 morning edition p 7 OW
~ (Excerpts) China hae recently notified Jap~n o~ its decieion to defer ful-.
fillment of ies plant import contr~cts, Which amaunt to 560 billion~yen. In
thia connection, on 17 March~ma~or Japanese ~irms Yevealed ~heir.firding~thae
China has roade no e3milar deciBione on ite,contracte with firms in the �
UniC~d States and Europe~n counCriee. Thie tact was confirmed by the Min- _
igtry of InCernationr~l Trade and Induetry [MITI] on the eame day.
It is not zlear why China'8 decieion only~involvea contracte witli Japanese �
firme, but tha prevailing view a~ng leading Japanese firms is that China
hae taken the etep in order to obtain favoreble terms in ita difficult ne-
gotiattone aith Japan on loana. .
Regarding China's deciaion~ MITI holde the vi~w that "excesaive emphaeie on � '
heavy industrq in China hae reeulted in the lack of a balance bets~teeri induetry
and other aectors, including agriculture, and to remove thie imbalance, China _
seema to have started to ad~ust ita plant importa from Japan, which occupy a
- considerable part of ita total foreign trade volume." -
~ However, ma~or Japanese firms believe that China's deciaion is aimed at se- -
curing favorable terma in iCa talks with Japan on loane. They eay that'this
ig clear from a cable Chin~ sent notifying Japan that it ie taking the etep
� "becauee the issue of~funding cooperation between Japan and China hae not yet
- been resolved." To back up their view, they aleo point oUt the fact that
while China i8 actuallq receiving 2oans from Britain and Weet Germanq~ it has
yet to negotiate with Japan for the settlement of the ieaue over funding co-
operation. ~
- COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Shi~bun~ha, 1979 ~
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JAPAN BEGINS TO STUDY JOINT AID PROGRAM ~OR EGYPT
Tokyo NIItON KEIZAI SHII~ffiUN in Japaneae 18 Mar 79 morning edit~.on p 2 OW -
, ~
~Text] The Foreign Minietry began eCudying a poasible new econrnnic aid pro-
gram for Egyp[. With Bgy?pt and Ierael having agreed~to aign a Creaty of
peace, President al-Sadat disclosed a plan to ask the United States, Weat -
� G~rmany and Japa.1 for a S~year assiatance program amounting Co $15 billion
fbr his country's economic rehabilitation. The U.S. President has already
' expresaed hie support for this plan. 7'hus~ Preaident al-Sadat and President =
Carter ar~ now reportedly aeeking Japan's share in the aid program. The
~ Foreign Ministry has said that "the miniatry will stud~ the aid ieaue when -
a requeat for assiatanca has formally been received." ~Hawever, miniatry
, leaders believe Chat, like it or not, Japan will have to undertake ite due
� ~ share in the aseietance Program. coucrete diacuseion of the isaue may
poasibly start between Japan and the United States when Foreign Minister
Sonoda visits Waehington in April. The Foreign Minietry hopes that it will -
be able to finalize the frameWOrk for Japan's ahare by the time al-Sadat
viaits Japan.
Through�the concluaion of a peace treaty with Israel, Egypt hopes to center
most of ita efforte on reconetructing the domestic economy: To realize this
- hope, PrEaident al-Sadat plans to obtain funde amounting to $10 bil,lion '
froan�Che�United States and $5 billion fram Japan and Weat"Germanq. It ia
said that President Carter had this al-Sadat plan in mind when he made a
ataCemeint on economic asaieCance to Egypt recently. A formal requeat for '
the share in the sid program is expected to be made shortly by President Car-
ter to Japan and Weat Germany. In the past, Japan has actively cooperated
with Egypt economically through loans in yen. Japan believes it should ahow -
an equally active respoeae to this future aid program When formally asked to
participate. Foreign Ministry officials say that, in so doing, Japan can
= demonstrate ite support for the new Mide~ut development, following the
� Egyptian-Iaraeli agreement to aign a peace treaty, and can also live up to
its faith in Middle East peace. However, some officials also believe that -
thoughtful conaideration ehould equally be given the Arab aationa' opposi- -
tion to the aigning of the peace treaty. Thus, the minietry believea that,
in wor'ing out concrete aid measures, Japan ahould keep a cloae watch over
~ future ..-+elopments in the Mideast situation.
. ~OPYItIG1IT: Nihon Keizai Shinbunsha, 1979
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ECONO~IIC ' ~ -
,
BRIEFS
MINING PACT WITH USSR--5umitomo Coal Mining Co on 15 March announced plana
to soon eign a technical cooperation agzeement with the USSR and~to aend Che ,
first~group of Cechnic3ane to ~he Soviee Union in .Tune. Sumitomo will be the `
fi.rat Japaneae ~irm to undertake auch cooperatiAn with the USSR in the coa~l
- mining sector. Ite part o~ cooperation w311 primarily be in the technical _
~ area of hewing in ateeply inclined coal,beda. [T~kyo NIHON KEIZAI SHIi~IBUN
in Japaneae 16 Mar 79~morning edition p 6 OW~ �
JOINT URANIUM ENRICHI~[ENT PROPOSAL--Govertnnent saurees disclosed on 16`Merch _
that Japan has received an informal Weat German proposal for a~oint ur8nium _
enrichmenC pro~ect among Japan, FRG and,.Australia. The giet of.the proposal,
conveyed to Japan Atomic Energy Commieaion by (W. Schmfdt Kuester, chief for
research and development bureau of Ch~ Weat German Ministry for Research and~
Technology, is as follows: 1) the enrichment plant will be built~in Auatralia~
~ and that country will furniah the site for the plant and aupply natural uran- _
ium; 2) the procees of enrichment will follow a"centrifugal" method develo~ed -
by a~oint uranium enrichmcnt progr~ among.Weat Germariy,.Britain and the
Netherlands; arid. 3) Japan will furnish conatr~~~'ton funds and take charge
of the sale af the end~product---enriched uranium. It is poesible that Japan
will respond to thia proposal in view of U.S. stand Lhat for uranium enrich- _
ment Japan give up ite current ainglehanded development�program and�inaCead
- seek a"multinational ~c?int venture formula. [Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHINBUN~
in Japaneae 17 Mar 79 morning ediCion p 6 OW] . ,
- SOVIET AIRLINE PROPOSAL--Miniater of Tranaport Moriyama hae received a let-
ter from Soviet Mini~ter of~Civil Aviation Bugaqev propoeing that both Japan-
ese and Soviet airlines increaee the number of thetr flighte on the present
. Tokyo-Moscow air route and open new routes between ~aaka and Leningrad and
Osaka and Kiev. The letter, delivered by Soviet Amt?aesador to Japan Polyan-
skiy, also calls on both the Japan~ae and Soviet govexnmenta to conclude an
agreement on introducing charter fl:ghts between the two'countriea. Ac- .
cording to traneport miniatry sources, the ministry has little intereat in the
_ propoeal because paseengera using air aervices between Japan and the USSR are
not rery manq and their number ~is not expected to go up. In addition, Narita
Airport would need more fuel supply and rum~ays to meet the Soviet proposal,
and Japan is obligated to give priority consideration to similar proposals
made earlier by 33 nations, the sources said. [Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHINBUN
_ in Japaneae 17 Mar 79 morning edition p 4 OW] =
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AUSTRALIAN ORE PRIC~S--Auatralia and ~Tapan hay~e xeached an accord on Che pri- -
cs~a of ferrous or8s to be exported to Japan du~rin~ ~iacal 1979. The new pri-
ces show an Avernge increase o~ s].ighely more than $1 per ton over the level -
o~ fiacal 1978. The agreement also calla ~or a review and read~uatment of
export quan~ities every 3 monehe. Both aide~ also agreed tc alightly in-
= crease export quantiCiCes. Australian Minist~r of Trade and Reaourd~e
MCony on 1 March called the agreement "a satiafactory ~ne." Tokyo NIHON
KEI2AI SHINBUN in Japanese 2 Mar 79 morning ed,ition p 5 OW]
CARDBOARD FOR PRC--Japaneae cardboard makers have concluded contracts with a
delegation ~f the China national light induatrial importi-exporC corporaCion
_ for the delivery of k5,300 tone of cardboa~d ~o China from April through June. -
In view of China's increasing need o,f cardboard for packing its export light
~ induatrial,goods, Japan's paper induatry expecta to aign more contracta with
China at the Guangzhou trade fair acheduled to open~on 15 Apri1. Japan's
cardcoard export contracts with China amounted to 1G8,100 tona last year.
[Tokyo NIHON KEIZAI SHINBUN in Japanese 9 Mar 79 p 7 OW]
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SCIENC~ AND TECHNOLCIGY
'BUNGEI SHUNJU' DISCUSSES OUTLOOK FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY .
~ . Problems in Reaearch, Development -
- Tokyo BUNGEI SHUNJU in Japaneae Feb 79 pp 48-154 ~
- ~[Article by Hiroahi Takeuchi, reaearch director, Japan Long Term Credit
Bank: "Ia Another Revolution Poasible in Japan's Technology?; Science .
as a promoter of Japan's Economy in the 1980s"]
[Excerpt] General
- Technological Advances and Position ~ -
- One's intereat differs according to on~~'s poaition: a~physician would
- take interest in the phyeiological~, a literary acholar in the emotional,
and an engineer in the mechanical sepecta of a human~being, while a
philosopher would look at human valuea. ~ ~
Humans, from an economic point of view, expect a maximum benefit from a~
minimum of labor. Human behavior is considered only in terms of pro-
_ duction, consumption and savings and investment, to the consternation of
literary scholara and philosophera. � , ,
The same can be said of technological advances. Phyaiciats may highly
evaluate the existing technological level for the probe of the elemental
particle atructure, while biologista and chemiets may regard the present
- age as the dawn of molecular biology. ~
A houaewife may view the level of existing technology only in terms of
new products auch as a mattress drier. To a houaewife caring for her
- parents, the drier is a lifesaver, a product of technological advances. ,
Japan's economy enjoyed a large growth becauae of remarkable technological
advances made from 1955 to 1970 in most induatries, including petrochemical,
textile and electronics. ~
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- 5tagnation of Technological Advancea -
Theae technological advancea pa~ved Che way For high economtc growth through
the following mechaniam: To introduce a new technology or create a new
. technalogical induatry, major induetries would make huge cRpixal invest- -
ments, create a demand for producta of the metallic or m~chinery industry -
which in turn would expand its own capital.investment, and even establish -
a new pLnnk. With increaeed demand and supply, the indusCry would anow-
- ba11 into a larger induetry. '
With high economic growrh, the wage level wi11 rise in keeping with the
- aupply of labor, and an increased demand for durable consumer goode will ~
' st~mulate capital investment and production. In addition, the construc-
= tion af huge planta.by the durable goods industry and masa production .
techniques will drive Che costs down, cresting an even greater demand.
- And as,a.l,3bor-s$ving meaeure, huge capital investmenta will be made in -
automation. .
From 1955 through 1970, Cechnological advances apurred capital 3nvestments
and promoted economic growth. In the sense~that technological progress
. enmeshed Japan's economy and changed its character,.it was indeed a
technological revnlution. And Japan was able to turn out some of the
- world's best industrial products.
- As in natural and social phenomena, there is a cycle in human beings from -
infancy to old age.
In the economic area, an oversupply will result in an economic slow- -
down known as a stock cumulative effect. For example, an overbuilding
of residential homes will impede the growth of the home construction -
industry.
This is seen even in the case of technological advances. When a new -
principle based on natural science is found to be promieing for indus-
_ trial application, enterprises undertake applied research fervently,
and any auccess provides a clue to the direction that should be pursued _
- in other. rese.arches. ' ~
- Supply of New Principles Exhausted?
Any enterpris~e engaged in growth-oriented research should have no -
trouble mustering an excellent work force. During the 1955-1965 period, _
researchers in the petrochemical, synthetic fiber, sutomobile and steel -
industries were the target of envy, while in 1965-1975, it was those in
the computer field. Outstanding human resources tend to cluster around
such growth imdustries, thereby accElerating applied researchea.
In such a manner, applied researcheF~ on principles dealing with solid
~ physics and synthetic chemistry underwent a remarkable progress in the
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= first half of the 20t~ ceneury, eapecially in the United States. New
producta a~pear~ng in the Japanese m~rket were sub~ected to �urther applied
r.esearch, reaulting in top quality producCe. Today, not even a drop of
water can be wrung out of a wet towel. Petrochemical and synthetic ~
fibera industri~a are a typical example. Deapite huge research expendi-
tures, iC has become difficult to develop producCs profitable enough to ~
_ recover reaearch expenaes. � -
Industries, such se the heaqy chemical industry, where technological. . _
_ . progresa came early were caught in an intense capiCal inveatment race, -
- resulting in surplus pro~uction capacity. Probably due to the technologi- -
cal stagnation and the changing internaCional economic environment, Japan's =
- long-term economic growth seems to have declined around.1970-75 from 10 -
percent to 5-6 percent. A drop of the economic growth rate from 10 to
_ 5 percent would mean that the annual demand has been reduced by one-half. ~
- ~'echnological adyances, ~n an economic sense, appear to be slowing down.
(Kondorachefu) spoke of a long 55 year.c~?cle in technological progresa.
Based on his tk~eory, we would have enCered a period of decline after
1965 or 1970. � .
Mass Production Techniques,and Local Conditiona ~
Local conditiona have a~strong impact on an induatry, an example,of
which is agriculCure where, in Japan, rice is the principal crop. .
Japan-made cars are small,~with a good .fuel efficiency. As the Japanese
- have an eye for details, the inCerior appointments and paints are
_ superior to those of foreign cars. Because Japanese housea are small, -
even refrigeratora, vacuum cleaners and air conditioners are built amall
and quiet. ~
_ Local conditions also affect te~~innlogy. The technology in which Japan
excels involves the mass production of new products and of improved pro-
ducts on the basis of'knowhow acquixed from abroad after 1955. Tech- '
nological revolution thus became ~.reality.� ~
- ~his can lie attributed to Japan's high academic standards and unique em-
- ployment practices. Because of the system of lifetime employment., the
- enterprise provide constant training to employees, rotating them to riew
posiCions every few years to broaden their outlook. In,plante and main
offices, deciaionmaking is from the bottom,up, serving as an incentive
i to the workers. ~
In mass produ~tion plants of the machinery and steel industries; there
~ are many levela of work. The important point here is that fine tech~tologi-
cal improvements are made at each level, while maintaining a balance with .
other levels. Japanese plants have many blue collar workers who are '
motivated in making improvements.
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(~rigin~l p�~~du~C~
Ma~~ prnduceion eeehr,iquee b~gin to lo~e gpp~al when~ver Che market
groweh glacken~. When Che market becotneg saturaeed with mae~ ptoduC~d
producte gnd there gr~ no other producte to create g mag~ demand, Ch~
eltiernarive would be to develap varied producte for verying d~mands. ~
In gunh casea~, nn~ muet ke~p abreagr of ~he newg xnd come up with some
cl~ver ide~. A c~ee in point i~ th~ mattre~e drier.
~xisting producte cgn be improved into a higher cl~es product, and in gny
_ fnrm. An example ~rould be miniaturization, ~s in the caee of au~h elec-
.eroniC productg ae de~k calculetore gnd taperecnrderg. Nowever, impraved
techttology would be required beceuse of precision pgrCa and materials.
Alsa; varioua technology c~an be combined. An ~xample would be (raCeknae),
incorporating a rgdiot televiaion and cagsette recorder~ or g quartx
wntch cambining watch end e1~cCronic technology. Annther ex~mple wduld
be the conetruction of earthquake reaietgnt high riee buildittgs and
ocenn epans through atructural calculaCion with large compuCera. -
In auch sysCemization of technology, a gregCer eize and high quality will
demand unusually strong materir~la and fine fubricgtion, attainable only
with advanced technology.
- New large Ir~ducta can also be developed, primarily by the electxonica
indusCry. A typical example would be facaimilea ~nd computere for home
use, and an automatic burglar alarm and fire prevention eyatem. Al.-
though large and expensive, they may be called a sawll product in thaC
there is no great demand for them. Today, many ama11 but expensive pro-
ducta with high perfnrmance ar.e being developed.
Also, there is a combination of hard and aoft tPChnology. An example
would be residencea, city servicea and plant construcCion industries. -
IN the home construction area, not only hard technology dealing with
eb,�thquake and fire, but also eoft technology involving livability need
to be conaidered. In tfie city eervicea induetry, the probleme of noiae,
trash co~lection, tranaportation, green belt, and natural surrotmdings
must be considered~ together with the price of land. In plant construc-
tion, the natural environment must be protected and friction with reai-
dents muat be avoided.
There are also areas in which hard technology alone cannot fully per-
form the tasks without the backing of an advanced aoft technulogy, and
vice versa. An example of this would be the pollution problem now
being licked with anti-polluCion technology.
From theae observationa, technological pro~ress cannot be interpreted
as the constant development of neW and large prcducts or of new
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manufgcturing prdce~~~~ b~ged dn gome new pxinnipleg of nntural gCience.
T~chnology ig moving in varied directione.
= J~pnn'~ t~~hnological climatie has wiChetnoa Che effecte of mas~ prdduc-
Cinn. ~ven w~!;h respect Co th~ Cechndlogy of ehig dark period, ~he -
Japaneee were rich in small ideae. As many Japanese tended to make a .
- fu~g dver even emall deficiencies such as nicke on guto bumpers, quallty
mgt~rial~ and workmanship became neceasary, reaulting 3n high ~quality
= producte. The den~e urban populaCion, nniea nnd polluCion and the neces-
aity to minimize social friction led to the development of eoft technology.
In fact, Japan legde Che world in eechnology on 1ow polluCing cgra.
Serious Problems Face Reaearch and Developm~nt
~rom a short and intermedia~e rgnge, Japan's technological aCandards may
appe~r bright, buC from a long range view, there are some serious problema.
Aa gtated earlier, the technologicgl revolution was achieved withouC an}?
technological tradi.tion, chiefly through their introduction from abroad.
Although the new technology had been assimilated, Japan lacka the strength ~
to produce more quality gooda through further technological advances
~ because of ite ehallow hiatory of research and development. No new . -
knowledge ia available on petrochemicals, fine chamicals and coal ~
chemiatry.
The next problem involvea the capacity to develop new revolutionary _
technology. 7'he ideas of Japanese tend to be narrow and confined. For
example, to provide Saudi Arabia with potable water, Che Japaneae idea .
was to uae surplus tankers to haul water from upstreams of the river
Nile, whereas the French conaidered towing a vinyl-wrapped glacier from _
the Antarctic. This is a aharp contrast in the way of thinking.
Research and development funds are short, with enterprises, the government
and.universities unable to extend aid. � -
A greater problem ia the yet undefined goal of reaearch and development.
There ia no consenaus on what kind of nation Japan ah~uld be. And the
. government is unable to make any Zarge inveatments for reaearch and
development,.for it cannot explain juat how it benefits the nation.
There will be no additional capital investments in the absenc~ of large-
scale research and development, and Japan will not be able to extricate
itself from the long stagnant economy.
And without the development of new energy techniques, the petroleum issue
will probably be around for awhile.
COPYRIGHT: Bungei Shun~u Ltd. 1979
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~ ~ueure nf ~1~CCrdnic~
Tnkyn BUNG~~ SHUNJU in J~p~nege ~'eb 79 pp 155-1bU
~Interview by Hirnehi 'Takeuchi wiCh 5hunkinhi Kieakg, ~xecutive direcCor, -
Technology llivi~ion Chief, MgteuehiCa ~lectrical Induetrigl Co., Ltd:
"A 1-Ton C~lculntor Reduced in WeighC to 100 Kiloe; R~roaxkaUle Miniatu~iz~-
tion of Large-Scale Tpchnology"j _
[Text] Electronics
Technology Not in Stalemate
Takeuchi: The (Kondorachefu) theory ie thae a 55-year cycle exist~ in
technologic~l advances. I em uncertain whether 55 yeara ie correct, but
when bnsic rechnology bloomg inCn applied technology at a cerCain etage~
_ nny inv~sCmente in reaearch and development may prove ecdnomically un-
profitnble. At that point, ag gll efficient manpower w~ll hgv~ be~n
mugtered at the nppli~d Ce~hnology level~ iC will require about 20 yegre -
to mobilize the m~npower around basic technology~ con~ence the techno~ogi-
cal revolution and ehift the exis of technology. IC has generally been
eaid that Japan,,from 1955 through 1970, poegesged revolutionary large-
scale technoingy and n?ass production Cechniques for reducin~ coate by
almost ~ne-h~lf. But that was before, and there being no further capital
invesCments, a long-term etonomic slowdown hae occurred since 1970. Ae
we like to believe that the econonry can be revived through technological
advances, we tend to puC the blame on the long-term or global dieorder
af ter 1973 on technalogy. That is the regson, I think, that the future
of technology is being quearioned.
Kisaka: Varioue reason8 have been cited for the 55 to 100 year cycle.
However, there are two points to be coneidered before diacuaeing this
matter. First~ in actuality~ even if a calculator weighing 1 ton were
reduced to 100 kilograms, or a pocket Celephone/television developed, or
on~ were to run 500 kilometera per hour around the earth, they probably
- would not be considered as technological revolution. Future projections
being made on rather ~olid ground theae days~ a amall progresa would not
attract much attention.
Secondly, when tracing the past history of ecience, we would find that
similar utterances have been made repeatedly. When Newton's dynamics
was perfected around the mid-18th century, some claimed that it brought
an end to ~hysice. And around the end of the 19th century When M~xwell's
electrical dynamice was provisionally perfected, people believed there -
, was nothing more that could be done with phyeics. However, many dis-
coveries followed: The X-ray by Roentgen in 1895; radiation by Becquerel;
radium by Madame Currie in 1896, electrons by J.J. Thomaon in 1897,
and Panck's quantum theory in 1900. In [his way, the large buds nf
electronics and nuclear power began to grow in the 20th century.
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- Ardund 1~40, Che chief df r~gearch lgbnr~tory Cnntended thge gin~e ,
m~tdr~, g~npr~tor~, electriC bulb~ and ~u~t xbout everyhting ~lge hgd
all been produced and eher~ were nd new invenrione, the dnly thing,
le~t wa~ a~~udy di th~ir ~ppliCgtiong. And in 1g64, eh~ director of
- ~~urdpean regegrch 1~bdrgCory gttteed that the honeymobn betwe~n gemi-
cnnduGtnr~ ~nd science wae over. In tracittg ehe hi~tory of gciettce in
_ thig m~nner, it ~~tt be ndtad ehge whenever eher~ h~~ been ~ome ~eriking -
gchievement, many peopl~, including tr~ditidngli~Ce, begin tio f~e1 ehae
g~i~n~~ hgg ouClived ite usefulneae. Ho~~ever, as Marx would say, it i~
~hen ehat p~r~dox~g gnd ehe bud for w~rk in the n~xti atgge YegCheg -
mgrurity. perhgps iC ig g desire to recaptur~ Che g~me dYegm, but it
ig n degtiny Chgt hum~tts mugt folldw, like it nr not. At any r~te, eince
g l~rge numb~r nf the ~aorid'~ ~cienei~ts and engineers have g~Cak~ in
their problems, it may be too bold of ine to negate ~ny revolution in
~Cientifi~ C~~hn~logy, paesing it off ag mere undulaCiong (laughCer). I
feel thnt nature i~ not gd stn~11 th~e humang c~n sCUrry gbout and gain
~n understgndittg. (I.gughC~r).
Numanity'g Two Migtakeg -
Tc~keuchi: Then, for phygiCg, it is a period of confu~ion, or...
Kisakg: My main field being electronics, I cannnt'go in deeply on orher
fielde. IIut I feel that electronica ia not in g stgte of confueion. .
I must watch how I expres~ myself, but I often ask myaelf whether humanity
- hae not cQmmitted two mistakes (laughter).
The fir~t is that humana struck upon atomic energy, ac~d the other is that
- they are trying to eeize upon the phenom~na of life and heredity. These
two things can be coa~ared to humanity attempting to consume the forbidden
fruit.
EvCn if humanity seized upon ll~eae things, ethics would come into play
during the firat or second generationa, but after the third generation
when sciences is tranefo~med into a universal technology, there would
be no guarantee as to hoti+ such technology Would be applied. It is un-
thinkable that one would try to deatroy the face of the earCh by triggering
a nucl~ar miseile, although there may be such a gesture as in the 1962
Cub~n crisie, or contemplate world dominance by changing the race through
application of the genetic phenomenon. But as for the future, there is
nothing we can do~ other than to have faith in the Wiadom of future
hun~anity.
_ Takeuchi: It would be awful if microorganic chemistry really developed
and germs happened to escape. They Would spr~ad quickly and bring harm
to htsmani ty.
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Kig~lc~t Th~re i~ ~uch g d~ng~r. i do n~e f+~~~, th~~ ~1~~eranic~ tdday
ig in ~~t~tp df Cdnfu~inn. There ~re viewe thgt we gre itt g per~od nf -
ghift for ~nm~ ~e~r perfdrmer~. ~rom a buainees poine nf view, tih~ m~rkee
eh~r~g fnr TVg and rediog, 30 and 40 pp~c~nt regpectively, m~y graduglly
chgng~ arith th~.introduceion of new prdd~a~t~. Thi~ i~ po~~ible.
Tran~fdro~eian to the Microcomputer Age
- Tek~uchit ~rnm a laymgn'g viewpoint~ eleceronicg etand for minigCurizg-
- tion. Ie progress in miniatur~zge~on Ch~t impdreant?
Ki~gkg: It aould be con~id~red not a~ g move to make ema11 thinge ~m~11er,
but mgk~ng 1~rg~ thinga srogller. A 1-t~n c:~leul~t~r redue~d in weight
td 100 kilogram~ tmuld gin~plify it~ operation, and e telephc~n~ which
~gn be egrried inside a pocket aould provide more convenience. Td du
thig, critiC~l greeg mugt be further reduced in gize.
~~keuchi: Wou1d mini.~eurizgtinn hav~ a greater effect on c~gt rpducti~n
or the eyetem? Uo you megn thgt miniaturi~ation wnuld r~gult in ch~gper
pr~ducte for Wider u~e7
Kisaka: ~ssentially, it wd~ld mean a lower price, but on the Whole,.
functiong vi11 be improved, meac~ing high prices. The production cogte of
semiconductors, ICe, gnd L5Is have be~n increaging gharply from year
Co yegY.
Tekeuchi: Ia miniaturization contingent nn advnncee in mat~rials, en- -
gineering or, ehall I gay, principlee7
Kieaka: We can eay the ab~orption of principles into material advanceg,
ar material advancea With the suppnrt nf principleg. For ex~ample, we
di$pl~yed over 20 types of senears lgst fgll gt the Ngteushita Technologi-
cal Exhibition. Sengore na+ are u.sed for baeic purposes, but in the
future, they Will take the place of human eyea. ears, nosea and akin. The
future direction will be, I think, toaards a feedback of ahat ia aeen~
~ heard or smelled. Hoaever, unleae a great leap is made in the coming
years, the aenaor will be unable to aerve as the eyes and ears of human
beinga. It ie a long Way off before aensors and microcomputex~s can
perform the functiona of humans made up of 15 billion celle. But the
~ day will come. And the day aill come when microcomQutera end minicoaQuters
Will assume a l8rger role.
Takeuchi: I am Well aWare that aensors, regembling a nerve, aill become
- very important. To effect the diacovery of sensors. d~es electronics
or biochemistry have to be puraued?
Kisaka: Bcth. A fev years, someone atated in jest~ "Director, let's ~
- quit ~ur experiments on $ensore and breed roachea and cat fieh inatead."
(laughter). Ae Mr Takeuchi says~ biochemistry and biophysics are making
slow progress.
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Npw T~~hnoingy and llunwn Sen~~~
`~akeuchi: I~rdm ~n ecottomic point of view, it e~ea~ thttt fund~ ~re th~
- real ig~ue whenever ther~ i~ mention di techndlogiCal gtggnation oY abnut
- l~r~e-~Cnle terhnoldgy not ~merging for another 10 ye~r~. ~echttology
until now hge required e vaet amount df money for equipm~ne, but wi11 not
r~quir~ sn much in th~ futur~. So when dne ~pe~k~ df ~ Ce~eatidn nf
t~~hndldgy, it prnb~bly i~ in an e~dnamic gen~e.
~ven frdm a 1~ym~n'e vi~wpdint, the eleetronicg industry has msde rgpid
adv~nceg. Upnn db~erving the Mgtgughita Te~hnolo~ic~1 ~xhibitidn, I agg
deeply imprege~d but ~t the ~~me time became Cnttcerned nver vhether Che
elderly would be ~ble tn utilize it.
5uCh progrege aould require ~ fgmiligrization tr~ining for the publiC,
uleim~tely ~hgnging hwnan emotions. ~nr ex~mple~ many thingg can bp done
with a home ~dmputer. A sen~nr cgn dis~dv~r a burglgr brpaking into g
hame and enund an glgrm through the ~om~uter, but g hum~n Vb~CI crying
out, "a burglar is itt the house," imp~rtg better humon emotion~. Al~o,
the Way in ~thich on~ ~ayg, "heat ehe bath Water," i~p~rtg strong human
emotiong. ~f such ~motione are gradually dieplaced, some future generg-
tiong might b~come uged to it, while gom~ may not. Technology finally
has reached the point of emotiong.
Kisaka: Thia may be human deatiny. Hum~n~, ~~p~~ially scientigts, geem
tn pogeega traitg both very ~lever and �oalish. They a11 think they gre _
doing a goud thing. About 30 ye~re ago When We began our reeearch, both
~ciettce and resegrch Wer~ considered a sactted occupation. But When the
pollufion ig~ue aroee about 10 years ago, one gained the impregeion that -
ecience and terhnology were in~~olved in Wrongdoings th.at Would re~ult in
- depletinn of resnurces. Nany thing9 need to be congideY~d. For exaa~le,
if We continue to sell tn~re calculatora, including deak calendara, the
human cepacity for calculation aill eventually be lost because of atrophy
of the unused organ, and 300 ~r 500 years hence, the brain cells may
even undergo a structural change. At any rate, it aill be a repetition
of trial and error by humanity. I fpel that much thought should be
given in evaluating a technology.
What Ig a Great Invention?
'fakeuchi: boeg Japan's electronice technology rank the higheat in the _
World, With no fear of the United Stateg and European nations catching up?
Kisaka: I have heard co~ente to that effect, but those remarks can be -
attributed to the arrogance of Japanese. When we consider satellite
rockets, nuclear energy, computers and semiconductora, We cannot say that
Japan [akes thc lead.
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With re~p~ct tn ~~micnttductnr C~chttdld~y, te i~ true thgt tMe pruducC
i~ bein~ ~xpdrted to eh~ United St~e~~ b~~gu~e nf ieg quglity and lnw -
Cn~t. Th~t invdlve~ g~inglc~ lev~l of t~Chnnlogy whi~h ie nnt inferior
tn th~t ~f Che tlnited 5tgte~. Ifut techndingy rung much de~per gnd wider.
Ld~king at aemiconductor te~hnology a whole, we cgnane ~~y eh~t Jepan
~xcelg the Unit~d 5tete~. Ic~ comparin g th~ eechndlogy of the two ngtion~,
n~ny thic?g~ ought to be congidered. ~'or ~xa~nple, in Ch~ congumer field,
Japnn-rmde radioa had g 70 percpne gh~r~ df Ch~ m~rkee i~ the United
- Se~ep~, bue it ig nov 10 p~rc~nC daing td cntnp~titian from Sdueh Korea
. gnd Hdng Kdng. Cg~~ette tapee and blgck ~nd white Z'Va wi11 eventually
euffer eh~ ~gme fete. A te~hnologicgl compgrig~n, tn~luding price~,
betapen Japan ~nd the devploping ngtion~ ig in nrder. VTEte gre nnt pro- ~
du~ed in the United Stgteg, being in?~ort~d ~nlely frdm Jap~n. The
United Staeeg ig unable Co prdduce a~imilar quglity prnduct gC Che prer
v~iling price. Th~refore, J~p~n'g VTR ie Con~idered ehe aorld' beet,
thu~ Creating problemg beceus~ nf the yen hik~ (laught~r). The general
� conclugi~n i~ ehgc th~ other ~~de legd~ in certgin prc~ductg, ~thile
Japan g1~o 1~~dg in certain prnductg.
Takeuchi: Natadgy~, J~pane~e universitie~ Cannot be counted upan for
technologicgl advances, ~n enterpriees are taking their plece. But as
enterprisea have only profits in mind, nothing epectgcular can be antic~
ipgC~d. In the::United 5tates, induetrial and academic cooperation on
n~tional pro~ectg ie pog~ible, but not in Japan. There is no difficulty
in prdc~eding ~rum radio to tnpe recor~er to tel~viaion aet, but Che '
- problem artaes ahen it comea to a alightly larger technology.
Kisaka: That ia ture. In the United StaCes, government organs euch as
ir~ armed forces and NASA t+ould become prime ~upportera, and there even
the profite of a gingle firm aould equal the production coats of a Japane~e
firm. Japan's reaearch effortg ehould be directed primarily on Jgpanese -
mntife. The definition of largeneee algo neede to be clarified. Por
e~caa~ple, the reaearch on tranaistora can be termed a great succes~, for
it created a huge market, but it can be said that the scale of regearch
at the time ~aa not so large.
Tn~:euchi: My concept of largeneae ie ahere there is an inmenee field
of applicgtion for ~ neW product and an expansion of the eystem of
~echnology, like many [wige branching out from a tree. That ie my idea
of a grent technology.
Ki~aka: Some researchera atart out With a big goal, while others grrn+
a~ time paeees. As you knos~r, [he tranaiator, an example of the theory of
effect, vae preceded by a vacuum tube and a crystal deter.tor. The ques-
tion was wether a detector having the same functiona as a vacu~ tube
~ could be produced. Even Shockley, the inventor of the tranaistor, ex-
perimented vith thie in 1939 but failed. He conducted another experi-
- ment in 1946, but aith poor reeults. Puzzled, he revie~red his Work,
r+ondering Whether his computations aere correct. He then tumed his
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attenti~n Cd ehe ~ilicun surf~~e, l~gding r~ ~he develnpm~ne of ehe tren-
~i~edr., ~~r~at invenCion wh~n w~ look b~Ck n~w. gue at rh~ time of
digcovery, it wa~ ~~id th~t ie h~d only ~ limi.red appllCgtion ~e it
~ould nor be us~d in high fr~quency area~ ~nd wg~ too ~mall to prnvide
electriciey. Th~t wa~ ground 1952 or 1953. :
.
' Wieh th~ digcov~ry of the tr~neigt~r, regegrch~g were conun~nded on
noiae reductidn. Powe~ had to be inrr~~ged, bue g~ he~C would degtrdy the
tr~n~igtor, ~ l~rger mnunt was installed f~r h~~t dig~ipatinn. Thus,
~ ehe trgngi~tdr wg~ grgduglly improved to today'g level. No one imggin~d
ehen that Ch~ nppli~ation of traneietor would grnw gs it h~e, leading to
even ICe and LSIs. .
Takeuchi: Th~C means that th~ traneigtor wae digrnvered ar.cidentally,~
~ gs in the ~gge nf nylon.
Kig~ka: Yeg. Bgkelite, X-rays, radiatidn, ~uper conductinn ~nd the
trnn~i~tor were a11 ~ccid~nt~lly digcov~red. 5ometimes the viewg ~re
divid~d as to whether they were accidentglly diecovered or were inevit~bl~.
In ~ome easeg, it a~y be termed as an inevitgble reality through an ac-
cident. Shockley himBelf etgCes Chat he had g firm belief that euch a -
deviCe could be developed, but if we overlook that one poinC, it would
become accidenCgl.
~lexible Technicigns
Takeuchi: In other words, a geniug may come up with an invention, but
would require help from othera in fu~thering it. There ie a limit to
~n individual's viafon and aenaee. This seema to be the destiny.:of
techniciana. Juat as ~dison's and Bell's later yeara were ill-fated,
a aorthwhile invention would end upon diecovery and no other ideas would
emerge.
Kisaka: There are many such cases, not only in technology but among . -
. scientists as well. Edison worked on direct current, but took an op- -
posite stand on alternating current. Watt even said that the peraon who
ghould further his work was (Torevishikku) or that Fulton ahould be the
one to do ehipwork. There are many Nobel Prize winnera who refute new
theories. The memory brain cells are probably being hardened with�one's ~
own concepte. dnce they harden, a re~ection occura toward any de~~iation.
A judgment based on past memory is unable to predict the future. That -
is Where the dream of science and technology liea.
Takeuchi: In those circumgtances, a peraon who becomea the chief of a
reaearch laboratory should have less achievements to hia credit and be
flexible as a slug (laughter).
COPYRIGHT: Bungei Shunju Ltd. 1979
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Steei ~ndu~ery
Tokyo f1UNG~I 5HUNJU in Jgpanese ~eb 79 pp 1~2-177 '
(InCerview by Hiroehi Tekeuchi with Tadgehi Ohtake~ executive director,
ltee~~rch ~nd DeveYopmenr nivieion, Nippon SCeel Corpnration: "Technolo-
gicel Advances Conserve Resources; Hopes on (Amorufasu)~ Che Dream
. Metal". ~
CTexta' st~~l -
8d,000 Kinde of Steel produceable
Takeuchi: The eCael induatry has made remarkeble progrese eince ehe end
of the war. Coet reductione were noCable, but what about the quality of
aCeel?
Oheake: Pr~e~nCly, we maintain a master file of about 8Q,000 caees, which
mean~ thnt we distinguish between 80,000 kinds of seeel in the production.
procees. Becauae it would be impoasible for human beings to keep rrack,
we~have inetalled a computer syatem.
Takeuchi: How much of 80,000 was produceable in 1955?
Ohtake: Virtually none. High tenaile strength ateel came to be used on
naval vessels around 1953.. Also, around that time, the automobile in-
- dustry, profesaing to~be a potential growth industry, gave ua a word of
encouragement. But we felt then that it was "preposterous." The
(alumikirudo) steel for automobile bodies caas first produced around 1953.
Takeuchi: Take the case of the battleship Yamato, for example. ~ave _
there been advances to ~uaCify the claim that today aeveral centimeter
thick ateeel plate would equal several tens of centimeters in ability
to withstand pressure and deatructive power, or that steel would be .
rustproof for many days rather than for a week? ,
Ohtake: I do not know how deep old aubmarines could submerge, but modern ~
ones can submerge for several hundred metera. We are not trying to
develop a steel plate for a aurvey vessel, capable of withstanding an _
ocean floor presaure of 6,OD0 metera.
For the 3,000 meter leve, we should come up with something much sooner.
_ Takeuchi: Doea that technology depend wholly on the atrength of eteel? -
Ohtake: At 6,000 meters, there would be an atmospheric preseure of 600.
Takeuchi: Reverting to aomething more familiar to us, have there been
great advances in steel for auto bodies? _
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OhC~k~s One problem ha~ to do with the fuel coets of autamobilee. Car~
cgn b~ mgd~ emgll~r to nbCain greater milenge per ].iter of'gaeolin~, or -
~ can be built lighter. We are not directly involved in making Che care
emgll~r, but in making Chem lighCer. Preaently, ateel for auCo bodies
hag a etrength of ~bout 30 kiloe per equare millimeter, but will prob~bly _
be ittcreaeed in the fueure to around 40 or 50 kilos.
The Cheng~ cgnnot b~ made enoner becaue~ of tha m~chanic~l cnpgCity of
pressea maintained by automobile manufacturera. Exieting machinery
- cannot be replaced until depreciation. New prc~duct~ gr~ intrnduc~d when _
equipment is changed. As fgr ae we are concerned, we already have
the teChnological improvemente to deliver tho~e kinde of eteel.
"Steel Ig NnC Steel"
Takeuchi: ~very metal hae ite own characteriatica, and steel competes
with aluminum gnd plaetic. WhaC are the~proepects of eteel ourpaesing
aluminum ae far as efficiency in c:oncerned? ~
Ohtake: Up unCil around 1950~ we studied the property of steel as a
material, uaing optical microacopes, X-rays attd other phyeical, analytical
methods. Later, a new method as adopted,.usit~g electronic microgcopes to
obaerve internal friction. This ahed some light on steel's dynamic
~ behavior. Subsequently, through a method known ae polar diagram, an im- �
proved veraion of the X-ray method, the cryatalline poaition and the ~
collective structure of ateel were clarified.
. Thus, problems related to an outatanding electromagnetic sheet ete~l for
� transformers, deeply preseable eteel plate, and their qualitiea were
cleared up.
The technology exiating at that time was generally applied,.and in 1960,
an experimental method was adopted.� For example, there wae the EPMA
,(X-ray microanalyzer) to accurately detect and identify any abnormality
in the micron order in steel. Another technique introduced ahawed ways
to ~udge eteel geomorphologically with a scanuing elecrronic microacope.
As a reault, many new guidelines were formulated on refinery techniquea
that had been overlooked, bringing about the current changes. .
A greater problem has to do with the introduction of the ao-called aurface
analytical method. Thie was after 197Q, being preceded by the introduc-
- tion of a very high voltage electronic ~croacope. From theae, various
phenomen3 occurring Within steel were clarified. ~
Takeuchi: Did the surface analytical method become~posaible becauae of .
advancea in the electronica induatry?
Ohtake: Yea, phyaically. Researchera in many fields had long waited for
them. Their invention was spurred by news of their needs. As a reault~
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questiong on Ch~ ma~erigl's two dimen~~ona1 (onguautoromu) order were
gnewered. In oth~r worde, we think thge g gte~l ie ete~1, bue Chere
- are cases where one particle and one atomtc layer or two p~rticlea and
ewo atomic layerg on the eurface are not n~cesearily steel. That'e whae
wae reveal~d (laugheer). -
In other worde, ruet and soldering a11 has to do w~th thQ eurfnce, and
ae prablems becomes knawn~ there wi11 be all eorte o� meaeur~s to deal
w3th them.
Is Stee3. Making With Atomic Energy g PosaibiliCy?
' Takeuchi: 5tee1, then~ ie seill a groweh metal. .
~ Ohtgke: That ie my feeling. There are still many unknowns, ae to ita
propertiee.
'Takeuchi: If ther~ ie a great leap in technology, can eteel be produced
ea efficiently as aluminum?
Ohtake: From the etandpoint of energy, the energy required for conver-
sion of ores into a ton of eteel is about one-twentieth of that for an
equal amount of a].uminum. It is an economic problem, after all. -
Ts~keuchi: Will manufacturing costs be lowered further in the future?
Ohtake: 'There is a way to aimplify the manufacturing methoda. Under
. the existing proceas, productivity is atreased at each level of operation. -
The problem facing us ia how to link them and come up With a balanced
process for improved quality.
Although continuaus founding is very efficient, we unfortunately do not
posaess the~technology to accommodate 80,000 kinds of ste~~. Special
eteel calls for complex methoda. The current problem is how to deal with
' this. IEs diecovery would be revolutionary.
Under the exiating procesa, energy and material are wasted, as heat or _
cold treatment muat be repeated as required. If the product ie aub~ected
to heat only once, a system muat be devieed to use the eame heat through-
out the entire operation. That is the essence of a great technological
development.
Takeuchi: That means that steel making by atomic energy or direct
steel making ie far off, and that there will be a gradual build up of
technological improvementa for aWhile.
Ohtake: Yes. Our present Weaknesa ie in coal. Nuclear energy can aolv~ -
this problem, but the current problem is hoW to produce ateel making
cokes under a method that does not require coking coal. The use of coking
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ov~n~ ig now controvereigl becguse nf their envirunmettC~l impace. Ae
ther~ ~r~ meuns to produce meCallurgical coke from ordinary coal and aC
the ~ame Cime confurm to environm~nCal requiremenC~, regearches will be
direceed eoward Chia end.
TAkeuchi: ~xisting seeel mills have been conseruceed inside the bays
or on ehorea along the Inland Sea. Since no additional siteA are avail-
~ble, they probably have to be located by the se~ facing sCrong wavea or
foreses. Wouldn't a new construction technology be required then?
Ohtake: Thi.e is a rather dimeneional ig~ue involving the rate of progress
nf marine Cechnology and civil engineering. When the 5akai aed.Nagoyn -
_ steel mills were built, I think that land afforeatation proceeded on a
y~grly baeis, while at Kimizu steel mill, it was on s monthly baeis.
When Che Oita ateel mill was conetructed, a 25 meter deep quay was x~eeded
for unloading raw maCerials from large ehi.ps docking alongside. This
quny was built according to the aeaberth method, a fireC experience for
the eteel induatry. Under thie method, a quay becomea unnecessary when
a berthing aiCe is erected at the end of a long pier and materiale ere ~
hauled with proper moving equipment.
= After building it by the outer aea, the queation is whether some kind,
. of system can be deYeloped to keep out waves to ensure a safe docking ~
by vessels. If this cun be reaolved, the day will come when water depth
at the siCe will no longer preaent a problem.
Takeuchi: When the Nippon Steel Corporation erected a steel mill in
Kimizu, lt had a city construction pro~ect under consideration. The re-
location of ita workera and the conatruction of a town and plant aimul-
taneously represented a ma~or technological progress.
Oht~ke: Probably. To a nation like China, civil engineering technology
for steel mill conatruction advancing to other technology for town and
plant construction has a great appeal (laughter).
(Amorufasu), the Dream Metal
Takeuchi: Are there any prospecta for the development of so~e revolutioary
kind of steel? '
� f
Ohtake: It all depends on how we look at what we have now. Steel with
- third dimensional or memory features has already been made, but its ap-
_ plication is sti.ll a long way off. (Amorufasu), a non-cryatalline metal
stands out, however, Ordinarily, the atoms are aligned in a cryetalline
structure. To apeak in a somewhat complex language, �ahgt is known as
- a(Laue's) spot is formed due to defraction of X-rays. But when a steel
is mede under a certain method~ it is still eteel but without (Isue's)
spot. It is a mass, but not a liquid mass (laughter). That's the
kind of steel that is formed.
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Takeuchi: Ze it eoa?eChing like a piece of plaetic?
OhCake: G~ase is a ma~s~ but not a cryetal; it ie rather an overfrozen
liquid. Thu~~ (Laue'e) epot will never appear. Stieel having thie re-
_ semblance hae alxeady been produce~. Although a very amall group of
_ people from Japan, the United States and Germany are geudying Chis ateel~
_ not much ia known.
But it ie known that it has a very inter~eting chgracCerisCic.
Takeuchit What ia that chaxacteristic?
Ohtake: ~'or example, making pos~ible a material, very inexpenaive gnd ~
more corrosion proof than stainlesa steel. _
The atrongest steel now made regist~re 300 kilograms per~ aquare millimeter, _
.but it can only be made in the shape of wirea for use in automobile
- tires ae ateel cord or piano wire. Theoretically~ it can be aub~ected to
prea~ure of 300 kilograme or even three timeg greater to 1,200 or 1,300.
But (amorufa8u) ate~l has a strength of 300 kilograma without any epecial
work (laughter). This is a dream steel, indeed. _
Japan Excele the United StaCes -
Takeuchi: In eteel technologyp does Japan excel the United Statee?
Ohtake: It ie difficult to eay, as the United Statee may be engaged in
such work, syateatiatically.
Takeuctii: In the case of the United States, if there ia a need for ~ _
strong~steel for Polarie aubmarines and aubterranean bases, it can
develop the ateel with military procurement expenditures.
Ohtake: Yea. We do not have military expenditurea. It is ~te11 that we
do not, but from the standpoint of tachnological advancPs, it is a weak-
ness. If there are no financial conatraints, a good product can be pro-
duced, aside from the queation of economic feasibility (laughter).
- ~ Takeuchi: Where technology ia pursued unmindful of economics, the United
States probably takea the lead.
Ohtake: It probably is ahead. Japan has a big lead in technology transfer.
Takeuchi: Why is it that Japaneae universities and enterprises are unable
to come up with geniuses?
Ohtake: They probably don't want to recognize anyone as a genius. Jap-
aneae prefer to pull the leg of high capable individuals (laughter).
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Savina the ~uiva~ent of One coaeegi se~~x r~.i~
~ Tr'keuchi: Can we expecC a genius from the eteel industry who develope
eome ma~ufacturing method which might beaC his name, euch as Ezaki diode? .
Ohtake: No. Since the induatrial revolueion, there have been only two
ways, I think, of producing ateel. One ia the (Badoru) meChod employed ~
until around 1870, when ehe power revolueion got underway. It granL,llv
transformed inCo Che Siemens-Martin meti-.od, a so-called indir~ect process
~ which increased production velocity twentyfold. Uaing the eame capacity
equipment, producCion was increased 20 times. Thie was indeed a revolution.
Takeuchi: Was Mr Siemena responaible for this? .
Ohtake: Yes. The underlying principle was the heat regeneration aystem.
_ ~~e aecond imporCant achievement was, as earlier explained, the conversion ~
ofr the blast furnace/open hearth furnace into the revolving furnace system.
The Chiba Steel Mill, which original,ly aCarted out with 500,000 ton capacity,.
- now has almoat 9 million ton capacity. From the atandpoint of today's .
_ general technological level, three revolving furnaces, each with a 250 ton
- refining capacity, would suffice to produce 6.5 million tons of steel -
- annually. Under Che open hearth furnace system, however, 20 or even 30
of the 250 ton open hearth furnaces would be needed. In other words, with
the same capacity equipment, the production velocity had been increased ~
- nearly tenfold. The same thing that had been achieved under the tndustrial
Revolution had been real3zed. ~
Takeuchi: Then, despite the talk of a deacending movement of the
(Kondorachefu)~cycle or.stagnaiion of technological advances, it is not -
as serious in the steel industry. '
Ohtake: Looking in from the outside, I think there is a stagnation. But -
~Y think the portion that ia moving inside is ferocious. -
- Takeuchi: Does that mean that after the huge coastal plant, deaigned
with scale merits in mind, has been completed and no further~progress can
= be anticipated, chere will be a reveraioti to such basics as the non- -
crystalline s~:e_~1 mentioned earlier? ~
Ohtake: No, no reversion. It will be performed in parallel. Technol~?gical _
- advances during the 7-year period from 1970 through 1976 resulted in co~~-.
servation of resources. The yield rate climbed sharply from 82 to abou,: -
_ 88.6 percent over the processes of bliater steel to the finished'product.
To explain in detail, Japan's 1976 production of ordinary steel was 93 '
~ million ~tons ,of blister steel, out of which nearly 83 million tons.were
for finished ~~roducta. In other words, 93 million tona of bl.ister steel
were produced in order to produce 83 million tons of steel products. If '
there had been no technological advances during that time, about 100
~ .
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tnillion eon~ of bligter eteel would h~ve be~n r~quired in ord~r Co cdme
up with the needed 8~ millinn tone. In ~hort~ it megnt ~ geving~ of 7
million tong of bliseer et~el. Technological gdvgnces helped eave an
~quivalent of on~ large ~o~~e~l gCeel tnill.
CUPYItIGHT: Bungei Shunju Ltd. 19y~
Ch~mi~al~ ManufacCure
Tokyo BUNG~I SHUNJU in Japanese ~~b 79 pp ?.61=166
[Int~rview by Hfroghi Takeuchi wieh Sadateka Mukoy~ma, gdvi~or, Toray
Induseri~s, Inc.: "Cnming Technological ltevoluCion to Begin With Bio-
chemistry; Poaeibility of New Prnducts Among Special Producte"]
(Text] Chemicgla .
, Maeg ProducCion Alone Ia Not ~nough �
Whgt are the chances for e new technology for synthetic fibera so that it
~ can atage a comeb~ek fram iC~ current~depression? Or ie it a pesaimietic
outlook with no new technology in s~ght? '
Mukoyama: *t ig comnon knowledge among us techniciana Chat technological -
gdvances have become stunted. But it dependa on the yardatick that we
- use in diacussing this atalemate. If there ia a demand~ even chemicals
and mxt~rials planta wi11 pick up. If rhe demand for materials were emall
- or there were little application, a materiala manufacturer Would have
~little or no intereat even if there were fairly high technological
atandards. For example, materials are the key element of technology, as
in the case of very large scale integration. Japan's technology ia re-
markable, but the amount of materiels used, in terma of their aeight,
is very amall. Por the materials manufacturer~ the problem ia hoW to
make.a profit on auch a emall quantity of special materials.
In the area of chemlatry, fine chemicals are doing well, but their volume
is small. In producing a product in small quantity and in ~ large variety, ~
theae chemica~s, in many casea, are measured not in tonnaRP but in kilograms
per year. Therefore it becomes neceseary to change the mode of thinking:
, not about selling products but aelling information unrelated to the product.
To cite a radical example, (interfelon), a highly acclaimed cure-all, is
_ being sold on a trial basis for about 10,000 yen per million unit. A vial
of a million unit is said to contain only one-thousandth of a milligram
of the pure, effective ingredient, so a gram of pure (interfelon) is
worth about 10 billion yen. In such a case, the current thinking of the
materiala manufacturer becomea outmoded.
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Tgkeuchi: Instead of very huge equipmene~ tt scale and eest Cube are uaed
(laughCer).
- Mukoyaa?as Our chemical induetry has given no thought to ermll production
vnlume ae it hae concentrated~ e3nce the advent of petrochemicals~ on
rtu?~~ production only. Per capita inveetment, therefore, ie very high in
Japan. In the case of Hayer and (Hekieuro) of Ger~mny~ it is below one-
half thaC of Japan~ and their profit ratio has noC suffered even during
the current oil crieis. Unlike in Jspgn, ehey have other eources of
income from druge and dyes. Japan'e chemicnl industry ahould aleo ahift '
in ehose direcCions, but it would be a formidable taek.
I am not eaying that a new CechnoloRy ia beyond all hope~ but depending
_ on new applications~ chancea are Chat new epecialCy producta will be con-
stantly introduced. For example, our carbon fibera have a very apecial
application, and wozld demand f~r Chem ia expected to be around 200 or
300 Cons annually. Therefore~ the key is not only proal~otibn buC also
haw to broaden their application.
- Takeuchi: In a way, Japen's superiority in mgos production technology
constitutes a drawback.
Mukoyama: Yes, but conversely, that's becauae one does not have his own
seed. If something looked promieing, they would all flock to it. For
example, all.synthetic fiber companiea would engage in production of imi-
tation leather, and more th~n 10 firma in the production of artificial '
kidneys. If fine chemicals or some specialty chemicals appeared promising, -
everybody would ~oin in. We must be extremely careful to find a path
that the people do not tread (laughter). ~
We all speak,about a stagnation of technology, but the fact is that there
is little technology to take in. Rapid progresa wae attained in the
_ ~ostwar period because modificationa were made to the superb technology
from abroad. But now, there is no technology to bring in. Even if there
were, it is not so simple s9 Japan is a competitor. Technological advances
must be achieved~independently, but such econacioueneas and~action,.are
lacking in Japan as a whole. Even the companiea, much less the people,
~ are unprepared. That is the primary problem. -
Eerie Bidchemiatry ~ '
Takeuchi: At Dupont, nylon was accidentally developed while trying to _
_ make polyester. Aren't there any technological advances which ~rould
- accidentally result in some new praduct?
Mukoyama: A clue may come accidentally, but nurturing it into a product
requires conscientious research. In the case of nylon, it was not acci-
- dental, for research efforta were directed after a peraon had worked on
it and wae convinced that it could lead to eomething.
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'~akeuchis Nave ~ynthetic chemicals reached the poi.nt where any further
development of applied technology cannot be expected?
Mukoyam~: According eo thoge concerned with chemicals~ it eppears thnt
thera ie not much l~fe Co do. What ie left, however, i~ biochemietry,
which ie now making great gdvances. ~or ineCance, recombingCitm of genes
and etudies on delineation of organic and~.inorgenic mattpr~ have progreaged -
too far, ine~i111ng a eense of fear in us.
BiochemieCry may be difficult to underetand for thoee who studied chemistry
~ a long time ago. For exam~le, in tis~ue culCure, a tiaeue is tgken fram
you, and when nutrients are supplied, it grows sCeadi~y. Bvpn efter
yuu have died, thaC tiaeue from a part of your body continueg to grow.
_ Drug~ ~re in~ected and new medicinal producte ar~ made from thoae cells.
Thie is the procedure with (interfelon).
Takeuchi: It ia eerie. IC would be a~hock to learn that cells taken from
- me would coneinue to graw and finally emerge as a pair of ahoea (laughter).
Mukoyama: The tho~ght~of genetic recombination aleo shocks me, for it
would create varied living creaturee. For inetance, in the case of humnns,
. there could be remarkably atrong soldiers or laborera. There muat be
some controls; the technology may be highly effective through cell re-
structuring, but it also posea a denger. The Japan Academy of Science
has come out with a policy to restrict any research involving g~netic
- recombination. �
Overwhelmingly Strong Fermentation Technology
Mukoyama: Fortunately, Japan is ahead in biochemietry, particularly in
the field of fermentation where it hae a tradition. For example, when
- penicillin was developed after the war, it was claimed it would take
10 or 20 years for Japan Co produce it on a large acale, but it only took
2 to 3 years. Because of its tradition of miso (soy bean paste) and
shoyu (soy sauce), Japan is exceptionally strong in the �ermenCation
technology. Japan is not so etrong in medicinal producta~ but is strong
in antibiotics produced through fermentation.
Japan dominates the amino acid field ae well. I think that ie very -
_ promising.
Takeuchi: In macromolecular chemiatry, is the direction of new technology -
changing?
Mukoyama: In chemistry, the most apectacular postWar advancea were in
macromolecular chemiatry. But it has aubsided and there has been nothing
new. It has been commonly xecognized that there will be nothing like a
daily outpuC of aeveral tens of tons on maes production level. For ex-
ample, even in the case of synthetic fibers or synthetic reain where a
large amount ia uaed, production probably would not be increased beyond
the existing output.
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Tgkeu~hi: Ys Ch~t becauee globel enterprises flock to end s~ir~ on whet~
ever they can geC when a new macromolecular chemical principle is born?
Mukaygma: They would ~11 converge at once~ peck on ~~a~ll pnr~ion gfter
thin~~ hnd quieeed down~ end take the next nwve. Macromolecules hence~ -
Enrth would gppear ge living bodi~g end Eunctional ma~romol~cul~~. Uni-
v~reity ree~archers have virtually ab~ndotted the study of ordinary macro-
molpCUlee. 5ince 1955, no on~ at univereiti~s i~ ~tudying n~tural macro-
molecules. But in the United 5CaCes, uatural thing~ ere b~ing ~eudied
once again. ~ven Bra~il, awing to a lgck of oi1~ i~ trying to make matty
thing~ from agricultural products. Even alcohol is mixed with gasoline
for cgr~. .
De~pite talk of uee of solar energy~ pl~nta aeem to be the only hope,
ulCimately.
Masg Production and 5yeCemaCized Products � -
Tgkeuchi: Are fine chemicals considered to be a market-oriented technology? -
Mukoyama: It hae to do with something thaC is directly linked to demand ~
- and can be alightly modified or combined. For example, in the case of , '
a shopping bag used in aupermarkete, a thin ac~d atrong bag can be made by .
- slighCly increasing the polymerization rate on a very thin polyethylene
film. About 100,000 tona have been manufactured annually, and have fi-
nancially benefited the petrocheanical industry. Some similar products
should come up, euch as the mattresa drier (laughter). -
Takeuchi: Is the technology for their development fairly siu~le once
the market demands are known?
_ Mukoyama: Rather than a complex reaearch, it can be called product-
making through a combination of exiating technology. There ie much
opportunity for this, but it depends on obtaining information on the
need for a certain product early enough. .
Takeuchi: Can that be called an ordinary technology?
Mukoyama: Being a combination, iC is not an original technology but
a systemization uaing technology in a soft, wide aphere. There is much ,
raom for advancement in this area. '
- Takeuchi: Aren't aystematized producta uasuited for masa production?
� Mukoyama: The higher the technology, the lesa mass production. A com-
- bined systematized product would go into masa production. Por example,
in the housing indu8try, growth is attainable by producing new things by
combining the existing technology even though it co~y not be neW.
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'Tgkeuchit When Cechn~nlogy gt~billzeg at ~ rertain levely doeg th~ gyneh~tic
fib~r~ indu~try mov~ upstream ~o develnp raw maeerial~ ~r go down~tream
tn widen the end ueeg?
Muknyama: Whect te~hnology becomea stabilized in the case of materials, ~
they a11 become the ggme. ~or exgmpl~, ~uch ch~mi.cgl produceg as poly- _
ethelen~ and polyprnpylen~ do not differ eo much, eo the price would be
~ the k~y f~ctor. Ae exc~geiv~ corn~~tition would le~d Cn l~g~ prnfieg, -
some nther pr~ducte wi11 become deeirgbl~. Td ov~rcom~ th~~~ probl~ms,
some link ehould be mginCained with the end uses.
Takeuchi: If technoingical advance~ itt the chemical induetry we~re to `
be digtinguiehed between g plent nnd procees~ taho will aseume re~poneibility
for rhe former7
Mukoyem~: My firm. But with Che advent of an engineering firm, it wi11
be moetly r~sponeible.
The chie~ concern~ however, is thgt an engineering firm aill ee11 good'
machinery Co virtually anyone, reaulting in a lose of uniyuesnese to the
indusCry. ~ _
For example, upon discovery that e new German machinery producea a good
quality paper, everyone would attempt to purchase it~ deatroying the ~
uniqueness.
Synthetic fibera aleo have reached that stage. In the old days, it Was -
not poasible to buy synChetic fibera equipment in a package. To establish
a plant, manufacturera had to deaign their own machinery aatl~order them.
But if a machinery manufacturer designa and sells the machinery ae a
package, anyone with money can atart the buainesa, although the operating
knowhow may be coatly. Keen competition would then occur. '
Japan's petrochemicals were in that eame condition. I badmouth the petro-
~ chemical induetry, but it had no money, no workere and no technology,
only guts (laughter). It seemed tn have only guts~ for money was borrowed
from a bank, personnel were brought in from aomeWhere~ technology wae
purchaeed from the outeide, and the plant Was procured from an engineering
firm. Gradually~ the induatry grew, so the individual who got in early
~ Wae the inner. It Would be very difficult for fine chemicals to dupli-
cate this because of the lack of technological buildup and tradition.
Development of New Druga Ia Coatly
Takeuchi: I wonder how that tradition or technological buildup is -
achieved. I auppoee that meana a large number of people with a sixth
aenae or workers doing intricate work.
~ Mukoyama: It is related to people. Ar one time, synthetic fibers Wae
, a highly profitable business. That technology was achievable by a
41
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a ch~micgl firm~ but in Japen a chemical firm wge not able to aseprt
. it~elf mn the market. WhgC counted ehen probably w~re th~ weaving tech-
nology gnd mark~t proximiCy. ~
Tgkpuchi: Do ch~iniCal firme, with a tradition of non-perticipation in -
the rayon ~rea, pns~e~~ g w~aknees in the eynehetic fiber~ CEChtlOlbg~l as
a whc~le?
Mukoygn~t T~xtile-relaCed firm~, from boCton apinning to rgyon end eyn~ _
ehetic fiber, are close to the mark~t.
_ Wh~n Dupont and other synthetic fibere firme firet went inCo attificial� _
legther~ they found it very difficult to petteerete the unique leather
- n~rket, whtch diffared markedly from the fibers route. Customs and
traditions aleo differ~d. Thus, a11 firms, exc~pt Kurare, backed out.
. ~Ae our firm wae unaucceeeful in artificial leather ehoes, we changed to
gugdea and re-entered the fibere route. ~ven tt~ough they were of.arti-
� ficial leather, there aae a senae of intimacy in the fibere route and
. the product ~old rather eaeily. Our (ekusenu) of artificial euede ie -
our biggest moneymaker. . , '
,
~ven in the case of druge, a chemical company producing medicinal pra-
ducts on the baeie of its technology will fiad it hard to market without
_ going through estalbiehed drug etores. For bulk eales, ihe price muet
be one-tenth of the end consum~r'o price or it Will not sell.
Takeuchi: Isn't the development of new drugs a gamble~ as a large in-
veatment ia required and success it not assured? -
Mukoyama: The profite on drugs are very high. It is expensive and time -
conavming to introduce new drugs. In the United States, it is very ,
difficult to introduc~e new druge on a private level because of so'many
restrictions. �
Takeuchi: There ie also the queation of a hit or misa.
Actual ltesearch Funds Decrease
Takeuchi: Toray ie considered a typical enterpriae Which comea out with -
new technolagy. Is that due to the strength of money or to good manage-
ment of research and developmeat?
- Mukoyama: Management is poor (laugt~ter). In the eyathetic fibers in-
duet.ry, the number of workere Was expanded becauee it appeared promising.
In the 1955-1965 periodf most graduatea of chemiatry courses Went into~
macromoleculee~ arith the synthetic fibers firms employing a fiarly lerge
number of capable personnel.
_ ' 42 ~
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Takeuchis BetCer grdwth industriee ~re able Co hire people direct from
universitiee without lifCing a finger.
Mukdyama: But ccrndieion~ havn deterinr~ted after 1965. l~iringg heve be~n
~u~pended, and ectual reeearch funda have not been increaeed, despite
inflation. In fgct, the fund~ have decrea~ed, snd rese~rch hgs elowed -
dnwn. The United SteCeg faceg ehe same problem, Actual re~~~rch funds
have thug been reduced.
Bec~u~e of ehe g~oweh df eleceronicg a~eer 1965, m~ny chemical workerg
went tn that induetry. But there is g lack of rhief researah~rs to gce
ag a nucleus. Synthetic fibere companiea have a surplus, so I think they
e~n Cr~ngfer Chem dr Ch~ir ~obs, but thaC is a hard thing Co do in Jap~n. _
Tgk~uChi: It would be a~ll if the technoldgicgl cycle correaponde s~ith
human longevity. gut if Che Ciming should be off~ the gap would remain -
fnrever.
Mukoyama: Thae ie true. IC was around 1955 thaC the macromolecular
chemical induatry praspered. Univereities eaCabliehed euch couraea in
many areas~ recruited inetructore, and the faculty became firmly tooted
gfter 1965. But when the studenta were ready to graduate~ Che macro~ -
molecular industry had pasepd its peak. The timing posed a aerious~problem. -
Today, nor too many desire to enter the chenical field. New chemical re-
aearches focused on bilogical science are in progress; in fact, some are
being applied in certain areas of the medical field where the next
technological revolution ie predicted.
~
However, there are many pitfalls and problems before it can be developed -
into~industrial technology. If it ahould expand into general industrial
technology, the exiating ahape of the chemical induetry, from raw ma-
teriala to processing and the finiahed product, ie likely to be completely
changed.
COPYRIGHT: Bungei Shunju Ltd. 1979
9097
CSO: 4105
~+3
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5CIENC~ AND m~CHNOLQ(~Y
BRIEFS
- N~4J ~ItANSISTOR--Sendai-Tohoku UnivereiCy here h~e developed a high-frequency
" CransieCor. A new miniaturized tranaleCor capable o~ nearly five timea and _
much electrical output as the best convenCional Cranaistor of eqval frequency
has been experimentally developed by Prof Junichi Niehizawa. Nishizawa hae � ~
named it a"staric induction (~type) transietor" or "sit" for ahort. Th~e
firat commercial vereion o! one megaherCz (one million hertz or cyclee per
second) frequency and one kilowatt in output ia already being produced by a
Japanese company for domeatic marketing, starting next monCh. [Tokyo MAIN-
ICHT bAILY NEWS in Engliah 20 Mar 79 p 5 OW]
CSO: 4120 END
. . .
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