JPRS ID: 9238 USSR REPORT METEORLOGY AND HYDROLOGY

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JPRS L/9238 _
7 August 1980 -
USSR Re or~
p
'
- METEGROLOGY AND HYDRQLOGY
No. 5; May 1 J80
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_ JPRS I./9238
7 August 1980
_ USSR REPORT
_ METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY _
_ No. 5, May 1980
Translation of the Russian-language monthly journal METEOROLOGIYA
I GIDROLOGIYA published in Mo~cow by Gidrometeoizdat.
CONTENTS
Multivariate Objective Analysis of Meteorological Fields
(S. A. Mashkovich) 1
Possibility of Remote Sensing of the Relative Heights of the Principal
Isobaric Suriaces
(0. M. Pokrovskiy and S. G. Denisov) 14
Metho3 for Determining the Ice-Forming Activity in a Diffusion Chamber
(B. Z. Gorbunov, et al.) 23
Results of Computation of Diurnal Temperature Variation During Cloudless
Weather
(M. Alautdinov) 34
Influence of a Large City on Air Temperature
(V. N. Parshin) 43
Conditior.s for the Formatian and Falling of Abundant Shower Precipitation
in Eastern Transcaucasia
(M. A. Dzhabbarov) 50
Dis~ribution of Some Minor Tmpurities in the Tropical Zone of the Atlantic
Ocean
(V. V, Belevich and V. I. Medinets) 59
Prop~.gation of a Monsoon Qver ~ast Asia and the Degree of its Stability
' (N. I. Lisogurskiy and A. Z. Petrichev) 65
- a- [III - USSR - 33 S&T FOUO]
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Variab~~i*y of the TempErature Field in the Equatorial Atlantic
(V. V. Yefimov) 73
Method for Determining the Density of Packing of Drifting Ice Using
Satellita Data
(P. A. Nikitin and N. D. Lyubovnyy),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, gp -
Change in Water Levels With Retention of F1ow Volume
(F: M. Chernyshov)...~ 85
Supporting Capacity of the Ice Cover on Rivers in the Zone of the
Baykal-Amur Railroad During Spz~ing
(Ye. F. Zabelina) 95
Correlation Between the Yield of Winter Wheat and Photosynthetically
Act3,ve Radiation -
(L. G. Pigareva) 106
~ Frequency of Observations for Computing the Period of Recurrence of
Wind Velocity Exceeding a Stipulated Level
- (I. A. Savikovskiy) 116
Influence of Some Hydrometeorological i~actors on the "Blooming" of
Water in Reservoirs
(B. I. Novikov) 119
Measurement of Integral H~idity by an Optical Method
: (V. N. Marichev) 124
Identification of Metecrological Su~aries
(Yu. L. Shmel'kin) 134 -
Clearing of Warm Fogs Using Artificial Heat Sources
.
(I. M. Zakharova) 145
Review of Monograph by Ye. G. Popov: GIDROLOGICHESKIYE PROGNOZY .
(Hydrological Forecasts), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1979, 256
Pages
(G. N. Ugreninov) 161
Review of i~ionograph by Yu. I. Chirkov: AGROMETEOROLOGIYA (Agrometeor-
ology), Leningrad, 1979, 320 Rages
(M. S. Kulik) 163
Seventieth Birthday of Pavel Samoylovich Lineykin 167
-b-~ ,
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~ t
Fiftieth Anniversary of the USSR Hydroa~eteorological Center
(A. A. Akulinicheva) 170
Hundredth anniversary of Fergana H3~drometeoro].ogieal Burean
(V. Ya. Syromukova) 175
Conferences, Meeting~ and Se~ainars
(Ye. G. Apasova, Ya. S. Kanchan, A. G. Kovalevskiy, Yu.
G. Slatinskiy and A. A. Vasil'~ev)........< 176
Notes from Abroad
(B. I. Silkin) I87 '
~
~
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PUBLICATION DATA
English title ; METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
' Russian title ; METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
_ Author (s) :
~ Editor (s) � Ye. I. Tolstikov
Publishing House . Gidrometeoizdat
, Place of Publication ~ Moscow ~
Date of Publication : May 1980
, Signed to press ' : 22 Apr 80
Copies . 3800
COPYRIGHT ~ "Meteorologiya i gidrolo~giya", 1~80
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UDC 551.509.313
- MULTIVARIATE OBJ~CTIVE ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 5-14
[Article by Professor-S. A. Mashkovich, USSR Hydrometeorological Scientific
Research Center, submitted for publication 14 December 1979]
Abstract: A method has been developed for the
multivariate four-dimensional analysis of
meteorological fields with the use of spatial-
temporal optimum interpolation. On its basis,
using real data, the author carried out numer-
icaZ experiments for the purpose of clarifying
the role of different meteorological elements
in the analysis.
[Text] One of the methods for increasing the quality of ob~ective analysis
is related to the possible broadening of its information base by the use
of information on several meteorological elements. Different approaches
can be formulated for solution of this problem.. For example, it is pos-
sible to make an independent analysis of several meteorological fields,
relying in computing the field of a particular meteorological element '
. only on the measured values of this same element and then assimilating the
resulting fields. However, it is more attractive to carry out assimilation
already in the course of the analysis itself. This purpose is served by
, multivariate analysis in which computation of ~the field of each meteoro- ~
logical element is accomplished on the basis of information on the complex
of ineteorological eZements; the element to be analyzed may or may not enter
into their list.
Approaches to multivariate analysis on the basis of optimum interpolation
were already noted long ago and some computaCions were made (for example,
� see [1,3]. However, the intensive development of inethods for multivariate
analysis and their practical application has taken nlace in the last few
years [8-12]. Extensive use is made of the "analysis-forecast-analysis"
cycle, in which the results of the analysis are the initial data for numer- ~
- ical forecasting, and the prognostic fiel~s of ineteorological elements are
used 3s the initial approximation ("preliminary field") for the next
1
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analysis. There are indications that multivariate analysis makes it pos-
sible, in proceeding to a numerical forecast, to avoid additional pro-
cessing (initialization) of the analyzed meteorological fields (for ea-
ample, see [12]). Mu?tivariate four-dimensional analysis, with an "anal-
ysis-forecast-analysis" cycle, is intended, for example, for the process-
~ ing of observational data for the GARP program [8J.
Although even now some information has been published on the formulation
and use of multivariate analysis models on the basis of optimum interpol-
ation, many important problems have not been dealt with. For example,
there is virtually no information available the contribution as a re-
sult of taking one meteorological element or another into account, about
what "sets" of ineteorological elements must be used in the analysis of a
specific meteorological f ield, and with what error it is possirle to com-
pute the distribution of a meteorological element, information on which
is lacking, using data on other elements, etc. It is possible to note
only the numerical experiments of Schattler [12], according to which the
joint use of geopotential and wind gave no improvement in comparison with a
univariate analysis.
However, an evaluation of the role of individual meteor.ological elements
to a multivariate analysis is useful. Many new observation systems (ar-
tificial earth satellites, drifting balloons, etc.) do not yield informa-
tion on the entire complex of ineteorological elements, but only on some.
For the correct planning of such observation systems and the effective '
use of the corresponding observations it is necessary to be able to an-
swe~` the questions enumerated above.
Below we describe the method for joint assim:tlation of information on dif-
ferent meteorological elements, obtained from different observation sys-
tems, and present the results of numerical experiments. We give an evalu-
ation of the possible contribution of specific meteorological elements
to the analysis and investigate the possibility of restoring lacking data
on one meteorological element on the basis of ineasurements of other ele-
ments.
- The analysis model is based on the spatial-temporal interpolation of de-
. viations of ineteorological observations frnm some preliminary field. The
structure of the field of deviations in this case is modeled. One of the
3mportant merits ~f the analytical method w~.th the use of optimum inter-
polation is an extremely simple means for taking into account the differ-
ences in the errors in measuring meteorological elements in different ob- -
servation systems.
Principal Equations �
We will write the formulas for optimum interpolation in a case when the
initial information for the computations is the values of several meteor-
ological elements, and not only the element~whose value we want to detQr-
mine at the point to be analyzed.
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Assume that we have data on m meteorolo:gical elements. The meteorological
element to be analyzed can be among these elements. The points at which
the values of different meteorological elements are known can coincide com-
pletely or partially and can also differ.
We will denote the number of points aith measurements of the k-th meteor-
ological element by nk. The number o:. such points can be equal for dif.fer-
ent elements. We will assume further that the total number of observations
used in the computations is equal to v, that is
m
N ~ n~�
r=~
We will examine the deviations of the meteorological elements from their
values in some preliminary field. By "preliminary field" we can understand
the field of prognostic valuPs, climatic distribution, results of analysis
- on the basis of data for the prer_eding observation time, etc.
We will use f to denote the true value of the meteorological element, and
by f~obs) and f~Pre) the observed value and the value in the prelim-
inary field respectively. Then the analyze.d value of the meteorological
element f~a) can be found using the following interpolacion formula '
m nk
{~a) _ /{n} ~ ~ !J/ ~ {(H) ~ f(nl ~
J I, 0- J~. 0 x. ~ t~ (1)
R=1 !cl
[a = anal; H= obs; Tf = pre] where k, j denote the sequence of the meteor-
ological element and i is the number of the point at which there is infor-
mation about the particular meteorological element. The subscript "0" cor-
~ responds to the poiat for which the analysis is made. As indicated above,
iY. was assumed that for the k-th meteorological element there are nk ob-
served values.
Then by C~(obs) and ~~Pre) we will denote tite deviations of the observ-
ed and preliminary values from the true values: ~
a(~) = ft" f . r f
� ti R1) - R~~ �Rj1 ~ ~nJ ~ ki~ ~2~
and by 2tl a the deviation of the analyzed value from the preliminary value
LSU f(a) _ f(n) .
~o ~u ~~o� .
(3)
With these notations formula (1) can be rewritten in the form
m nk
, ~~~a) T. ~ PRl ~=R~1) zy~~~�
U Lr (4 )
A=1lc1
The mean square interpolati.on error is e~cpressed in the following way:
~ F/=(f~o -'//o)T=(~j'p~-~.%j`~)2, .
. (5)
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where the line denotes averaging. With (4) taken into account, formula
(5) assumes the form
m n; /
EJ = ~~~p ~ ~ ~ a~0 ~ ~PA( ~ZR!) - ~R7~~ 7' `6~
R~11-1
111 lI~ !K Rk _
c ! / ~n
~ L. ~ ~t.~~~ ~a,~~) Qk�?)~~i:~ - ~i:~~� '
. t=t .=tk_~t_ ~
In accordance with the requirement, in order for the square of the i.nter-
polation error to be minimum, we obtain the following system of equations ~
for determining the weighting factors:
,n rtl
C~Q~ Cin~'~rsl ~ ~"1 - _ (N) (u)
~ ~t! 0 j p � ki Jr � Rt 5"!r ~ Rl 41r ~A! ~lr ~7~
1=1r_1 .
T c;'~~ _ ~ ~k = . . . r ~R = 1~ . . . ~ 11,~~. .
We will assume that - -
,~~x) ~ G~~q �{x? _ (a? - �!H) :l~l -
~ Rl J 0 � Ri ~ !s �ki ~!r - T~1 ~ !r -
~8~
pkl~ ~4t~ ` ~kt� . '
Then the system of equations (7) and the expression for E acquire the form
nt n! _
~ ~i? "�',~ri~ gi: ~ P~~ r,tr = ~j
o ~ i~r~
1r1 l- 1 .
(k = 1, . . . , m; ix = 1, . . . , ~tkl~ (9)
m nk .
- ~p(n?'3 _ T ~ (~1 ;;(aJ ~n) `
~ ~ Lr n! ~ j 0 ~ k! '
~=1 i=i ~10~
The wpighting factors P are determined from system (9). These are then
used in interpolation using formula (1). It is evident tt-~at for writing
system of equat~ons (9) it is necessary to know the correspon:iing covari-
ation and cross-covariation funcCions, the value of the measurement errors
and the posit3oning of the points at which the measurements were made. It
should be noted that the finding of the covari~tion functions of devia-
tions of ineteorolo~ical elements from their values in the preliminary
field can inv~lve eertain d ifficulties. Whereas for deviations of the
meteor~logical element~ from their climatic values such functions have
been relatively well studied (for example, see [6J), this cannot be said
with respect to the covariatiuns of fore~asting errors. In addition, the
covariations of forecasting errors can be varied with changeover from one
prognostic model to another. It goes without saying that all the necessary
values can be computed for each situation to be analyzed. Another ~ossible
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way ta solve this problem is computation of the covariations of forecast-
ing errors in the course of dynamic-stochastic assimilation of informa-
- tion [2]. However, the practical realization of these two approaches is
difficult. Accordingly, at the present time rather extensive us e is made
of simple models of statistical structure [8-12]. In order to f ind the
cross-covariation functions of pressure and temperature, pressure and
wind, temperature and wind use is made of the dynamic and hydro static ex-
pressions (formulas for the geostrophic wind, equations of stat ics). A1- -
though when using these m~dets Chere is a loss of aptimality of interpol -
ation in the statistical sense, acceptable results are obtained on their
_ basis [8]. This approach is used below.
As an illustration we will :ite some covariation functions. Assume that
the k= 1 corresponds to th,~ height z of the isobaric surface, k= 2-- ~
to the temperature T, k= 3 and k= 4-- to the horizontal velocity com-
ponents u and v. Then
~ '
- h,~ r-
' ~~In'i '"l~i - CHH e 'J.'i t,'�lali - ~!!n ~S~l - 1~~) e- b~~r0 i
. ' ~ ~
~tn~ ,.(n~ _ C ~ 1- 2 6 - b"~~�
~a, ~ 'a., ~,a ~ - v,~)" e +
o '
= C .C ~ ) ~ - f'rJ'p.
- "3. i � r uv ~ ! - r ~yi - yl e +
Ct~� 2 bo CHH ~ C�u 2 bo C~,n: C�t, g ~ bu )2 Ch,H. -
Here x,y are the Cartesian coordinates of points, g is the accel eration
of free falling, ~ ~ is the Coriolis parameter.~
In the computations it was assumed that bp = 2�1Q-12 m 1.
More detailed information on the modeling of the statistical structure of
meteorological fields can be found in [12].
The realization of four-dimenstonal analysis requires allowance for the
asynchronicity of ineasurements. ror a changeover to four-dimensional
_ "space" (three coordinates and time) we used the same procedure as was
employed in [4, 5, 7J; specifically, it was assumed that
ro = (zi - x,}= -4- (Y~ - Y,1' -i- Cr ~t? ~z1Z� -
Such an approach considerably si~plifies the procedure for solving the
problem of ehe "price" of the inaccuracies unimportant in this stage of
the investigations.
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Table 1
Evaluation of Numerical Analysis ef Fields z, T, u and v
~ -
a Ncnal~o� ~
1; eaxw .~a~t� b bmsz r ?c `.K P ax i Q~
n a~e 2 3 4
~ 7 AHaius z a do.u
- S Cf .'I z 0.09 0,86 0,907 88,2 0,763 0,31 I 0,25
T 0,18 1,55 0,636 70.0 0,400 0,31 0,06
r~, v 0.16 1,05 0,702 7?,9 0,458 0,31 ~ 0,2G
u 0,18 1.1 ? 0,565 6~.8 0.316 0.; i 0,24 �
a 0,15 1,45 0,543 67,8 0,357 U,31 0,18
T, u, v 0,1~ 1,02 0,741 i3,7 0,473 0,31 0,26
z, T, ,e, v 0,09 0,6~ 0,932 84,5 0.6y~ 0,~ l 0,?9
6 61T( z 0,81 6,08 C,985 9~,0 ~.901 6,74 6,85
T 3,97 32,65 0,650 74,6 0,493 &,74 1,51
u, v 3,34 19,9 0,?33 74.5 0,49-~ 6,7~ 3,36
tc 3,86 26,3 0,591 68,8 0,3i~ 6,7~ 2,49
v 3,93 26,8 0,579 69,1 0,.382 6,1~1 2.32
T, u, v 3, l0 19,0 0,783 77,8 0,556 6,74 3.62
z, T, u, a (~,89 4,73 0,98Q 92.5 0,849 6.74 6,62
z 0,86 6,19 0,985 94,8 0,896 6,74 6,B9 �
8 ~na:tH3 T s � C '
S. Cf:1 ~ z 0,09 0,46 0,550 69,7 0,393 0,14? 0,06
T 0,04 0,30 0.94'. I 89,5 O,i 90 0.142 0, I 10
� 0,10 0,58 0,3~0 59,6 0,192 0, l42 0,0~8
0,10 Qai 0,'l90 :;is,2 0,16~4 O,t42 O,Of3
, a. 0,09 0,5t 0.-f09 62,3 0,246 0,14? 0,06'3
T, u, v 0,0~ 0,?6 0,935 87,9 0,759 0,142 A, I 16
z, T, ii, c~ 0.04 0,26 0.93~ 87,8 0,756 0,14? 0,11 G ~
41R z l,67 7,22 0,63; 73,9 0,~78 2,797 1.6~
T 0,238 1.45 0,994 97,6 0,93? 2,797 2,61 ~
u 2,06 ~9,3? 0,38G 60,1 0,2G2 2,797 0,598
v 2,OI 10,9 0,408 66,0 0,320 2,797 0,5~9
u, v 1,9~ 9,51 0,498 65,8 0,316 2,797 0.810 '
T. u, v 0,251 1,53 0,993 9G.6 0,931 ?,797 2,68
z, T, u, v 0.248 1.53 0,99~4 9G.8 0,936 2,797 2,67
_ z. T 0,250 1,74 0,992 97,3 0,9a6 2,797 2,699
9 :~Ha7N3 Ll B .II~C '
6(:f',l ~ 0,28 1.78 0,79~ i6.1 0.5?? 0.60 0,92
. T 0,41 2,43 O,daS 63,7 U,275 0.60 0,09
u 0,2~ 2,12 0,8~7 R5,5 0,711 0,60 0,36 ~
v 0,35 - 2,08 O,G~{ I ; 2,5 0,451 0,60 0,2G
it, v 0,21 1,52 O,SJ2 85,7 0.713 0,60 0,42 -
T, u, v 0,21 1,50 J,892 84,8 0.696 0,60 0,42
z, T, rt, v 0,24 1,5~ 0,86:i 77,0 0.590 I O,GO I 0,96.
. 10 AHaiua v e .,r/c
( Cr�~ z 0,28 1,69 0,765 76,8 0.537 0,5? O,dO
T 0,4 t 2,20 0,367 60,2 0,~05 0.~7 0,09 ~
u 0,33 1,69 0,677 ?2,7 0,453 0,57 0,26
v 0,25 '.,57 0,831 84.6 0,692 0,57 0,35
u, v 0,?1 1:2Q 0,887 85,5 0,711 Q51 0,41
T, ;r 0,21 ;,21 0,88b 85.`, 0,710 O,~i7 0,41
z, T, c~ 0,24 1,2G 0,8a3 76,9 0,527 0,5? 0,44
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Continuation of Table 1
~ - .
- A Ilcna:ii.-
~ ~aFianw L Zmac r Pc �jn P �I: �A
,r 1 :tanin.~e2 3 4
(3 t~HA.lN3 f! 8 .i1~C
6 i i n z �I,U1 21,3? 0,881 83,2 . 0,6G3 9,76 ~ 6,44
T 6.~f aa,77 0.5i9 I G9,1 0.381 9,76 I I,O7
it ?."G 12,13 0,961 93,0 0.809 9,7G 8,23 -
~ 6.~15 42,78 0,535 ~ G8,0 0,3G0 9,76 2,?4
tr, 2,37 11,03 0,967 ' ~3.1 I 0.8fi2 9,76 7,62
T, t~ 2,41 l l,?6 0.966 i ~2,5 u,849 9,76 ~ 7,~i8
z. T, ir, c~ 3,83 i 7,3 0,884 i 77,5 0,~99 9,76 I G,G9
z, T 3.99 20,9 0,8aa ; 83,1 0,662 9,76 I 6,47 -
I
_ 1.~ ,~Naau3 c~ e ,ii/c
6 l I f I : 3,81 14,34 O.Si 4' 81.1 0,623 I 9,14 ~ G,;~2 -
T 6,48 34,45 0,556 I 69,3 0,386 I 9,14 ~ I.1~!
u 6, ] 3 32,7~1 0,571 ~ 6 i~,6 0,352 ' 9, l4 2,25
r 2.31 13,29 0,95! ' 90,3 0,806 9,14 7,68 _
u, 0 2,3~ 11,82 0,9G1 ~ 89,9 0,798 9,14 7,22
T, u. c~ 2,3ti 12,99 0.460 ~ ~0,4 0.809 9,14 7,21
T, rr, a 3,6? 13,18 0,881 ~ 77.9 0,548 9,14 6,57
z, T 3,81 :4,37 0,875 I 80,8 0,610 9,14 6,38
I
KEY:
1. Variant 6. IF (inertial forecast)
2. Data used 7. Analysis of z in dam
3' P coin(cidence) 8. Analysis of T in �C
4�~ con ( trol 9. Analysis of u in m/ sec
5. Sm(oothing3 10. Analysis of v in m/sec
Method and Content of Numerical Experiments
The basic problem in the nuinerical experiments was the formulation of ati
approach to the joint assimilation of data on several meteorological ele-,
ments on Che basis of the optimum interpolation method and an investiga-
tion of the possibilities of reproduction of the field of ineteor~logical
elements, information on which is lacking, using information on~other el-
ements. The basis of the computations was formulas for optimum interpola-
tion of deviations of ineteorological elements from their values in the
preliminary field represented in the preceding section. The experiments
were carried out using the DST-6 archives prepared at the United States
National Meteorological Center in connection with work on the program for
investigating global atmospheric processes. These archives contain both
observational data and the results of analysis by the NMC method.
One of the difficulties arising in checking the quality of the numerical
analysis is related to the lack of a standard with which it would be pos-
- sible to compare the results of the computations. As the standard we used
the NMC analysis, which henceforth will be called the "contr.ol variant."
7
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The computations were made within the framework of a one-level analysis
and use was made of data for the 500-mb surface (temperature T, horizon-
tal velocity components u, v and height z). Numerical experiments were
organized in such a way that as a result of the computations it was pos-
sible to determine the f ields of all the mentioned meteorological ele-
ments since the number of elements participating in the analysis ("exert-
- ing an influence") can be varied.
The observation network was relatively dense: the distance between Che in-
fluencing stations and the the point of intersection to be analyzed was 400- ~ -
600 km.
An important problem is choice of the preliminary field. It is desirable
that the deviations of the observed values from the preliminary field be '
small. In other words, the preliminary field of ineteorological elements
must correspond quite well to their real values. On a practical basis this ~
is difficult to achieve, Therefore, numerical experiments were carried
out for two variants of the preliminary field. In one of them the devia-
- tioz~s from the preliminary field were significant, in the second smallr
In these variants the preliminary field was stipulated in the following
way. We will use t0 to denote the moment in time for which the analysis
is computed. In the first case an inertial forecast for 24 hours was used,
and specifically, the preliminary field was stipulated on the basis of ob-
- servations at the time t~ - 24 hours. We will call this the "IF" variant.
In the second case the preliminary field was obtained by smoothing of
NMC numerical analysis (variant "Sm").
It was assumed in the computations that the error in measuring the height
of the isobaric surface is 1 dam, temperature 1�C, horizontal velocity
components 2 m/sec.
Results of Numerical Experiments
As t~ we used 0000 GMT on 2 February 1976. In order to characterize the de-
viations of observational data from the reliminary f ield we use the value
b z(F) _~F~ibS) - F~Pre)~~ Where Fiobs~ and FiPre) are the observed and
3
- preliminary values of the meteorological element at the point i. We use
~ the notations and a.~X the mean and maximum values.
In the "IF" variant the deviations f~om the prelimi*ary field were extreme-
ly significant. For example, for z~ = 4.2 dam, a = 35.7 dam there ~
are 13% of the points with values 8 dam. The ~~and ma~ values are
also large for the other meteorologica.l elements. For a temperature d~ -
Z~.~' ~ max � 11 �C; for u a~ = 9.9 m/sec, S max - 47 m/sec; for v~j 6.4
m/sec, ~aX = 38.9 m/sec. ~
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I~ult UI~{~1ClAL Utils ON1,Y
In the "Sm" variant the corresponding values are smalle*, by at least an -
order of magnitude. For example, for z~= 0.2 dam, ~~a - 1.7 dam, -
for T~= 0.1�C, ~~X = 0.6�C, for u~= 0.4 m/sec, a~ = 2.5 m/sec.
max
Now we will examine the res ults of the numerical experiments.
The analysis was made for a recCangular regular grid with the distance be-
_ tween points 300 km at 60�N. An evaluation of the results af the computa-
tions was made using 1,63'L points of ~.ntersection in a regular grid sit-
uated in Europe, North America and the northern part of the Atlantic. _
An evaluation was made by means of a comparison of the com uted deviations
of ineteorological elements from the preliminary field (F~A~) and the cor-
responding deviations in the control variant (F~con)}, In the evaluations
we used a numl~er of characteristics: correlation coefficient r, mean S -
and maximum ~ max values of the parameter
S i- 1giA) - Ficon)~ (i is the number of the
- point),
the distribution of the ~ i values by gradations, /o coin the ratio of
the number of oints at which there is a coincidence of the deviaCions
F~A~ and F~con~ to the total number of points, - ~o oPp, where
co in -
/ ~ opp is the n u m
b e r o f p o i n t s w i t h o ppos i te s igns o f deviations, O"'A
and c7'con rhe standard deviation for F~~) and F~con) respectively.
F.valuations of the results of the numerical experiments for the IP and
Sm variants are given in Table 1.
The data in Table 1 show with what accuracy it is possible to carry out a
numerical analysis of the heights z of the S00-mb isobaric surface when
using different sets of "influencing" meteorological elements. This table
shows that some idea concerning the distribution of z can be obtained
with definite success using the temperature field at the 500-mb surface.
For example, in the IF variant the correlation coefficient r between the
- computed and control values of the deviations from the preliminary field
was 0.65; the signs of the deviations coincided at 75% of the points.
A shortcoming in the restoration of z is that the amplitude of the devia-
tions (see the U"A and ~con values) is considerably too 1ow. As a re-
sult, the errors of the restored field were rather great. Although the '
~ and S~X values are less than the corresponding and S max~ val-
ues in the initial data, and accordingly, the relative restoration error
- is less than unity, it is nevertheless about 0.9.
Computation of the z field on the basis of wind data gives somewhat better
results. The corr.elation coef.ficient was 0.73; the signs coincided at
75% of the points. The amplitude of the computed deviations is closer to
the observed value, although the ~A value is low relative to ~con bY
approximately a factor of two. The ~ and ~ max values were less than in
the case of use of data on1.y on temperature. It should be noted that
- 9
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computations with ~oint allowance for u and v gives results which are
better than if use is made only of data on u or only on v.
Simultaneous allowance for data on temperature and wind leads to results '
which are somewhat better than in cases when these elements are taken
into account separately. Thua, the correlation coefficient wAS equA1 to
0.78 a~d the signs coincided aC 78% of the points. There was some improve- -
ment in the other evaluations of quality of the analysis. Similar results
were also obtained in the Sm variant.
The conclusion can therefore be drawn tha~ in the absence of data on the
heights z the distribution of this meteorological element can be obtained ~
with the above-mentioned accuracy on the basis of the temperature and wind
measured in a relatively dense network of points.
9 -
Table 1 also gives evaluations of the quality of multivariate analysis for
a case when in addition to data on the temperature and wind there are
data on the height z. This table specifically gives information for a
case when the analysis of z is made using data only on z(variant "z"),
and for cases of joint use of data on z and on other meteorological ele-
ments. In these computations the values were used in a relatively dense
network of points: the z values at four influencing points participated
simultaneously in the analysis. These evaluations make it possible to com-
pare the results in cases of a"univariate" analysis (computation of z
using data only on z) and a multivariate analysis (in the computations data
on other meteorological elements are used together with data on z).
It can be seen from Table 1 that joint allowance for data on z and T did
not improve analysis of the z field. In the case of joint processing of
data on heights, temperature and wind the quality of analysis of the
� heights z was somewhat improved in comparison with a univariate analysis.
For example, in the Sm variant the correlation coefficient increased from
0.907 to 0.923, the maximum error became 0.62 dam in place of 0.86 dam,
and there was an improvement in the ratio ~A~ dcon ~0.935 instead of
0.806). However, the percentage of coincidence of aigns decreased from
88.2 to 84.5%. The relatively small positive contribution of the addition-
al information is attributable to the fact that data nn the main meteor-
ological element (z) were available for a quite dense network of points.
This agrees with the conclusian drawn by Schlatter, et al. [12] that
allowance for the wind does not give an explicit improvement in the anal-
sis of heights of the isobaric surfaces. The results obtained by Schlatter
were for a region with a rather dense network of stations in the United
States. ~
However, the picture changes considerably if there ar.e few stations with
data on z. As an illustration of this, Table 2 gives the results of a
numerical experiment in the case of a thin network of stations with data
on z, and specifically, when only one influencing station with data on z.
participates in the computation. The first line in Table 2 gives evalua-
tions of ttie analysfs with the use of data on z at one point; the second
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line evaluati~~ns of an analysis with the joint use of data on z at
one influencing point and data on T, u, v in a dense network (four points ~
with the valties of each element). It can be seen that allowance for data
on T, u, v within the framework of multivariate an.slysis led to a defin-
ite improvement in the results: the mean error was reduced from 3 to 2
dam, the maximum decreased from 21.3 to 12.2 dam, the correlation coef-
Ficient increased from 0.83 to 0.93, etc. The evaluations came close ro
the evaluations of an ~nalysis with a dense network of points with data
' on z (see Table 1).
Table 2
Evaluations of Analysis of z in Case of Thin Network With Data
on z in IF Variant
Licno~i~,souaH~
A8HH61C U ~ ~m~~
hICTE0311fNCfl� BR.tt tl0.1[ r~ ~~iU a ~F; QA
rax 1 Z 2 3 4
z 2,96 � 21,3 0,826 I 81,3 0,625 6.74 3,65
z, T, u, u 1,99 I 12,2 I 0,934 85,4 I 0,708
I 6,74 I 5,09
KEY:
1. Use of data on meteorological elements
2. dam
3. coin
4. con
_ Now we will proceed to the results of computaticn of the temperature
field. 1'he corresponding evaluations of quality of the analysis are given
in Table 1. The data in this table indicate the possibility of using data
on heights for determining the temperature field. In the considered case
the results are characterized by a correlation coefficient of about 0.6.
However, an analysis with the joint use of data on T, z, u, v did not
lead to a significant change in the evaluations in comparison with comput-
ation based only on temperature data and even somewhat worsened them.
This is evidently attributable to the fact that the computations were
made for a dense network.
Evaluations of the accuracy i.n analysis of the wind field are presented
in Table 1. This table shows that in the absence of data on the wind the
wind f.ield is relatively well restored on the basis of data on the heights
of the isobaric surface. For example, in the IF variant the quality of
analysis of the velocity component u is charactei�ized by a correlation co-
efficient r= 0.88; the percentage of points with a coincidence of signs
is I~ coin ~$3.2%; the mean absolute error is S= 4 m/sec. The same re-
sults were obtained in an analysis of v. The joint use of data on heights
and temperature insignificantly improved evaluations of quality of the
analysis.
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Computations cf wind on the basis of data on only this element gives_good
- results in the case of a dense network (in the IF variant r= 0.96;~~' _
2.3 m/sec). Joint allowanca for data on u and v gives a result somewhat
better than when using these components separately. Joint processing of
data on z, T, u and v reduced the quality of the wind analysis. This is
possibly attributable in part to the fact that when there is a dense net-
work the data on the other elements were excess, and in part to a not very
reliable choice of the cross-covariation functions and the values of the
measurement errors.
In summarizing what has been said, it should be noted that the results pre-
sented above are evidence of a positive effect of a multivariate analysis
and can serve as a basis for realizing a scheme for multivariate four-
dimensional analysis. In addition, additional work must be done on study -
~f the statistical structure of the deviations of ineteorological elements
from the preliminary field and on the choice of parameters characterizing
the fields of deviations and entering into the computation formulas,
on refining the method for joint use of data at different levels of the
atmosphere and on evaluation of the role of asynchronicity of observations,
etc.
In conclusion the author expresses appreciation to Ye. L. Metelitsa for
assistance in making the computations and A. M. Gofen, who kindly furnish-
ed a library of programs for work with the DST-6 archives.
- BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Belousov, S. L., Gandin, L. S., Mashkovich, S. A., OBRABOTKA OPERATIV-
NUY METEOROLOGICHESKaY INFORMATSZI S POMOSHCH'YU EVM (Processing of
Operational Meteorological Information Using an Electronic Computer),
Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1968.
2. Veyl'. I. G., Kordzakhiya, G. I., Mashkovich, S. A., Sonechkin, D. M.,
"Dynamic-Statistical Approach to Continuous Assimilation of Asynchron-
ous Data," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology),
No 6, 1976.
3. Gandin, L. S., OB"YEKTIVNYY ANALIZ METEOROLOGICHESKIKH POLEY (Ob~ec-
tive Analysis of Meteorological Fields), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1963.
4. Lugina, K. M., Kagan, R. L., "On the Prot~lem of Spatial-Temporal Anal-
ysis of the Pressure Field," TRUD'~ GGO (Transactions of the Main Geo-
physical Observatory), No 336, 1974. '
5. Gubanova, S. I., Mashkovich, S. A., Metelitsa, Ye. I,., "Numerical An-
alysis of Meteorological Fields Using Satellite Dat-a," METEOROLOGIYA
I GIDROLOGIYA, No 1, 1979. ~
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6. STATISTICHESKAYA S'iRUKTURA METEOROLOGICHESKIKH POLEY (Statistical
Structure of Meteorological Fields), edited by L. S. Gandin, et al.,
Budapest, 1976.
7. Metelitsa, Ye. L., "Four-Dimensional Analysis of Data frc,.n Asynchron-
ous Observations," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Transactions of the
USSR Hydrometeorological Center), No 197, 1977.
8. Lorenz, A., Rutherford, J., Larsen, G., "The ECMWF Analysis and Data
Assimilation Scheme: Analysis of Mass and Wind Fields," ECMWF, TECHN.
- REP., No 6, 1977.
9. McPherson, R. D., Bergman, K. H., et al., "Global Data Assimilation bv
- Local Optimum Interpolation:'3d CONFEREh'CE ON NUMERICAL WEATHER FRE-
_ DICTION, American Meteorol. Soc., April 1977.
- 10. Rutherford, J. D., "An Operational Three-Dimensional Multivariate
Statistical Objective Analysis Scheme," PROC. I.O.S. STUDY GROUP CON-
FERENCE ON FOUR-DIMENSIONAL DATA ASSIMILATTON, Paris, Nov 1975.
11. Schlatter, T. W,, "Some Experiments With a Multivariate Statistical
Objective Analysis Scheme," MON. WEATHER REV., Vol 103, No 3, 1975.
12. Schlatter, T. W., Branstator, G. W., Thiel, L. G., "Testing a Global
Multivariate Statistical Objective Analysis Scheme With Observed
Data," MON. WEATHER REV,, Vol 104, No 6, 1976.
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UbC 551.(509.314+54.543)
POSSIBILITY OF REMOTE SENSING OF THE RELATIVE HEIGHTS OF THE PRINCIPAL
ISOBARIC SURFACES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 15-21
[Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences 0. M. Pokrov-
skiy and S. G. D~nisov, ~eningrad State University and Main Geophysical
Observatory, submitted for publication 5 September 1979]
Abstract: The authors propose and validate a
scheme for remote sensing of the geopotential
: field on the bagis of the pseudoinversion
method. The article examines the p~oblem of
choice of the optimum spectral intervals.
, Optimum measurement schemes are given for
the 15- ~t.m C0~ absorption band applicable
to the H500~ H300~ H700 tie.lds. It is shown '
that in order to derive information concern-
ing variations of the mentioned fields it is
necessary to have no more than four measurement
channels. The error levels in remote sensing of
the heights of the principal isobaric surfaces
are given when using a different number of op- -
. timum measurement channels. The relative non-
dependence of the optimum measurement scheme -
on the level of ineasurement error and the
type of a~riori statistical information is
clarified.
[Text] Progress in the use of observational data from meteorological sat-
ellites is determined to a considerable degree by the c:ffectiveness in :
obtaining and analyzing quantitative information on the fields of the
most important meteorological elements. The problem of remote thermal
sensing of the atmosphere and the underlying surface is one of the most
timely. At the present time data on relative geopotential are obtained
through the intermediate stage of restoration of the temperature field '
on the basis of the results of remote measurements [6]. In this article
we discuss the possibility of constructing a simple computation scheme,
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making it possible to obtain evaluations of relative geopotential, by-
passing the traditional procedure of solution of the inverse problem
for determining the vertical distribution of temperature. On the basis
_ of the formulated approach, we will examine the problem of optimum
choice uf spectral intervals for remote sensing of fluctuations of the
oeopotential field. The results of computations using the mentioned
scheme are given for the 15-~1m C02 absorption band. Sets of optimum spec- -
tral intervals are obtained and the errors of the proposed method are -
indicated in the case of the most important isobaric surfaces H500~ H300
and H~00� ~
Mathematical Aspects of Pr.oblem ~
In solving the inverse problem it is common to use a linearized form of
tl~:e transfer equation, written in terms of deviations from the mean tem-
perature L~T = T and radiation L~L = L- L values:
~d 4v
~ L = ar l T (Ps~l (p~) ~ r (PS) -
(1)
1 n p,. d a., .
- f. dT I7' ~r)~ ~ 7' d In p d Itt p. �
0
Here '~a ~(p) is the atmospheric transmission function for the layer from
the upper boundary to the level with the pressure p in the spectral in-
terval with its center at the frequency U; B y[T(p)] is the Planck func-
tion for the emission of an ideally black body at the temperature T(p) for
the fY�equency lJ .
Thus, the problem is reduced to a determination of ~T(p) using data on
a L(1/). In the presence of a profile of the mean T(p) values the problem
of determining the geopotential of an isobaric surface with the pressure
p is reduced to an evaluation of the corresponding deviations using the
formula M ps �
~ H ~P) = ~ ~ T ~p) d in p 7'v ~P:) ~ l n ps . ' ~2~
Inp
Here T~ is the mean virtual temperature.
Since the remote sensing method does not make it possible to monitor vari-
ations of surface pressure Q ln ps characterizing the second term in [2],
we will examine the problem of evaluating the first term
~ ~ Ps
~N�~P)=~ ~ ~T(P) dlnp, (3)
ln p
representing the deviation of the relative geopotential of the isobaric sur-
face with the pressure p
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- ~ ~~u~: ur~N'1.l;lAl. uti~. ucv~Y ~
~ Since (1) and ~:3) are linear funct~ionals of one and the same function
Q T(p), it is clear that the L~ H~(p) value can be directly expressed through
- Q L(-?), bypassing Q T(p). We will examine the necessary transformation,
- which is accomplished after algebra ization of (1) and (3). The renlacement
of (1) and (3) by approximating expressions containing vectors and matrices
leads to the following matrix equations;
eL-A �~T, ~4~
~V N
~ H� ~P) = (r (P)1" ' ~ T (5 )
is the transposition symbol) . Here L = (QL ( . . d L ( -V~)
pn = ps, A is the matrix m x n. The �~ector r(p~ has the form r(p~ = c�
(cl,..., ck, 0,...,0)~ under the condition that p= pk, ci are quadrature
coefficients used in approximation of the integral in (3). The perturbed
- system, clescribing satellite observations, is rewritten in the form
,L-A �~T+e. ~ (6)
Here ~ is the vector of ineasurement errors. We will assume that ~ is a
random Gaussian vector with zero mean values of the components and the
known covariation ma~rix KE . According to [1], the best linear unbiased
evaluaCion (BLUE) Q HD for (5) on the basis of a model of ineasurements -
(6) is determined using the formula
n ~
4H�=q* �~L, ~7~
where
n ~ .
. q = {t - K; � K. ) � (A+~,~ . r,
- (8)
Here the KE matrix is a positive square root of K~ . In addition, K� _
K~�(I - A�A+). The BLUE coincides with the evaluation of the least
squares (ELS), with which q=(A+)*�r then and only then [1] when the
following expression is correct
K; �K. =K; � K.. ~9~
Since I- A�A+ is a projector onto the subspace N(A*), being the zero-space
- of the matrix A*, then the correctness of (9) is ensured by the undegener-
ate character of the K� operator within the N(A*) limits. It appears that
for problems involved in the processing of the results of observations
the formulated requirements are usually satisfied. In actuality, the stan-
dard assumption that K~ = diag(Ui, 0' m), (p- 0) guarantees the unde- ~
generate nature of K2. In the computations we used the still more frequent
assumption that Kg = Or2�I, which corresponds to a measurement system with
a set of equally precise radiatio a detectors. -
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In addition, within tne framework of the algorithm for optimization of
the measurement scheme [3] there is always assurance of choice of a
minimum number of linearly independent rows of _he A matrix [6J. In
- the case af a linear nondependence of the A rows the expression N(A'~)
_~0}, which, in turn, transforms (9) into identity, satisfied with any
I: .
~
Thus, in examining the group of problems of interest to us BLUE (8) al- _
ways coincides with the ELS, for which the q vector has the quite simple
form
N
q _ (q-+-~~ � r. (10) -
The su].ution of problem (4) has the following general form:
eT~A`.~L+s. (11)
Here s is an arbitrary vector of the linear set N(A). Formula (11) re-
flects the Fact that the vector sp~ace ~ T is broken down into the direct
~ sum of the subspaces N(A) an~ R(A R(A~) is the transform of the A* op-
erator. By analogy with (11} it is possible to write an expression for
the linear functional Q H~ from (5). Since the ELS for the functional of
the solution of problem (7) is determined by the choice of the vector q
using formula (10), its deviation from the true value can be written in
the following way:
~H�-of~�=r"~ �P�~T-rfi �A+ (12)
, In (12) use is made oi the fact that s= P�d T, where P= I- A+�A is ~
the projector onto N(A).
The components of the q vector describe the distribution of information
on L~,H~ in the spectrum. Formula (7) indicates that the variations of rel-
ative geopotential are always proportional to variations of some integral
spectral characteristic of the radiation.
We will note some peculiarities o� the ELS approach. The used evaluations
do not require a priori statistical information on the solution. In order
to obtain the ELS of fluctuations of the H field there is no need to carry
out multistep computations used at the present time in operational prac-
tice [6, 7]. The weighting vector q must be computed in advance. The sim-
plicity of formula (7) indicates the possible prospects for constructing
a specialized optical syste~ realizing spectral integration of radia-
tion intensity p L with the weight q and providing direct evaluations of
fluctuations of the geopoten;.ial field,
In the practical realization of rhe proposed method a highly important
problem is that of the optimum clioice of a set of spectral intervals for
obtaining the best evaluations of the heights of the standard isobaric
surfaces. The next part of the study is devoted to a discussion of this
~ ~~~Iem.
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Computing the dispersion (12), taking into account that the components
: of the Q T and ~ vectors are statistically independQnt, we obtain
o (~tf�)-r~ �P�K'T.p.r.~-r*q-~ �/C; �(.4+~`"'r� (13)
Here ICT is the L~T covariation matrix.
- Now we will discuss the terms of the dispersion O'2(L~H~). The first term
on the right-hand side of (13) characterizes the mean variations of geopo-
tential caused ~y flucti~.tions of the 0 T projection onto the zero space
of the A operator. This component of the ~ T fluctuations is such that
N
it contains no information on the Q L signal. The second i:erm in (13) is
related to the measurement errors. In the case of uncorrelated observa-
tion errors KE = 0'~�I expression (13) assumes the simpler form
n
,-(~H�)-r' �P �K'T �P �t ; �r* (A' �A)+ �r. (14)
Now the problem of optimizing the choice of spectral intervals is naturally
~ related to minimizing of the dispersions of evaluation of geopotential
(13) or (14). It is clear that with an increase in the number of ineasurement
channels m the first term on the right-hand side of (13)-(14) decreases
(due to a decrease in the dimensionality of zero space of the A operator);
the second term at first a]:so decreases and then sharply increases (due
to a worsening of conditionality of the matrix A*�A). We note that the
"relative weight" of the terms changes in dependence on the level of the
errors in initial data CI Thus, it is possible to count on obtaining an
optimum with finite m.
Realization of Optimization Method
Since in the proposed approach the usual procedure for solving the inverse
problem has been replaced by an algorithm for single computation of the
components of the q vector, the center of attention shifts to an examina-
, tion of the problem of optimization of the measurement scheme. As an il-
lustration.of the possibilities of this method we examined the problem
of determining the optimum set of spectral intervals in the 15- � m C02
absorption band for remote sensing of fluctuations of the relative heights
of the isobaric surfaces H300~ H500~ H700� Computations of the components
of the A operator require stipulation of the atmospheric transmission
- functions. We used computation data furnished through the courtesy of the
authors of [5]. These materials corresponded to the spectral region 600-
770 cm-1 with an interval 0.5 cm-1 and a resolution 1 cu~ 1. The covariation
matrix K,~ was taken from [8]. The functional (14) was initially optimized
using a scheme for successive choice of the spectral intervals [3]. The
preliminary stage in the investigation indicated that the optimum number
of spectral intervals does not exceed three for each of the considered
isobaric surfaces. With a further increase in the number of spectral in-
tervals the dispersion of the evaluation p~2 ii:~reased sharply. Therefore,
a real possibility appeared for carrying out optimization by direct trial
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and error. These computations indicated that both methods (successive
an~ di:e~~ trial and error) in most cases lea d to identical results.
Principal Characteristics of Optimum Measurement Scheme
3c~c~exTNS� L~exrpw [+XaP2KSCp1ICT11Kft 3(p(~2KT{ffiIIOCTh �
N~C 4NC110 Ci1CKT~8:lb� 30HA~~P083H(tA j(OStIIOFICHTbi
~ ~ K8H8AOB 30H� 1161?C FIIITCp- n n ^ ^ B@KTOPB
~l AHp088HItH L 821OD, C.1[-~ Z~ .N~ ~ OZ .1l~ I 6~~Q~ I 6.U ~ Q
~ ~ .
N;,,,,, 2 723 108 2335 0.37 I 49 21,6
743 I 07 14;36 0,23 39 10,1 13,6
N~� 3 723 ~ 2S4 6297 0,35 8~ 35,5 ~
717 552 3530 ' 0,22 ti4 15,7 21,4
708 556 3053 0.19 60 18,8 15,7, d,'1
H-m 1 723 347 332 G,34 26 ' 8,1 '
KEY: ~
1. Field
2. Effective number of sounding channels "
3. Centers of spectral intervals, cm-1 ~
4. Characteristics of sounding effectiveness
5. Components of q vector
aH6 mb
0
z0o
~
f00
2
~ 600
800 ~ ~ ~
J
7~00 '
q2 q9~ qs qe ~o ~~2. ~4ar/dcgp .
Fig. 1. Weighting f unctions d~,,/d lg p for so unding frequencies: 1) 708
cm~'1; 2) 717 cm 1; 3) 723 c~ 1; 4) 743 cm 1.
The most important characteristics of the optimum measurement schemes are
given jn rhe table. The results lndicate that remote sensing of the three
most important isobaric surfaces does not require more than four measure-
ment channels centered at 723, 708, 717, 743 cm'1. The channel _
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723 cm 1 is tlie most important. T'he multiple correlation coefficient
1-fy2/Q'2 between the 0 L fluctuations in this channel and 0 H~ always -
_ exceeds 60%.
_ Due to the finite "vertical resolution" of the corresponding weighting -
. functions a-~o~i a ~n p(see f igure) the number of necessary channels in-
creases only with an increase in the thickness of the sensed atmospheric
layer. In the sensing of H300 and H500 ~he contribution of the second
spectral interval to the value of the multiple correlation coefficient
is about ZS~. The "information weight" of the third channel for H300 is
still less appreciable and equal to approximately 3%.
Now we will eaamine the absolute errors of the proposed method. The cited
computation results correspond to a level of ineasurement error canstitut-
ing 2.5 erg/(cm2�sec�mean�cm-1). This corresponds to a relative level of
measurement error equal to 5%. The 6'2 dispersions (first term ~n (14)),
related to fluctuations of the temperature profile a T which cannot be
monitored during remote sensing,are small in comparison with the ~2 ~
dispersions (second term in (14)), governed by the measurement err.ors.
Hence, from the form of (14) it follows that the:e is a weak dependence
of the method on the type of the a priori covariat?.on matrix ICT. An ex-
_ ception is H~~p. Accordingly, the results of the opti_mization procedure
are determined completely by the behavior of p'2 in dependence on the
number of ineasurement channels. An increase in the number of spectral i~i-
tervals in comparison with those cited in the table leads to an increase
in the ~ 2 values.
The errors in determining the H500~ H300~ H700 elements are 40, 60, 25 m
respectively. In the case of small measurement errors (1%) it is possible
to indicate the following levels of evaluation errors: 22, 37, 18 m.
We note that our computations indicate an absence of any dependence of the
_ optimum measurement scheme on the level of error in initial information
6~ in range from 1 to 10%. This circumstance ensures invariance of
the q coefficients cited in the table. The practical realization of this
_ approach requires an examination of the problem of optimum spectral reso-
, lution, that is, the width of the selected spectral intervals.
Summary
The measurement scheme and the interpolation formulated above differ sub-
stantially from the traditional approach assuming a solution of the inverse
problem applicable to each subsatellite point. The method which we proposed
essentially involves a very simple operation computation of the scalar
product of vectors with a dimensionality not exceeding 3. This simplifica- -
tion of solution of the problem is fundamental. In this case there is a
real possibility of obtaining evaluations of geopotential in an operation-
al regime directly aboard a meteorological satellite. We examined the case
of a cloudless atmosphere. In the IR range ordinary difficulties arise
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when clouds ar.e present. Accordingly, the advantages of the considered
approach should be particularly great when using microwave measurement
instruments. In this case the presence of very simple computers in the
on-board instrument package can ensure not only the determination of the
geopotential f ields in the grid, but also the transformation of this in-
Eormation to a more compact form by means of expansion of the fields in
a system of orthogonal functions on a sphere or herni~phere and the trans-
fer of the corresponding data for use in numerical forecasting after
carrying out initialization. The use of harmonic analysis operations is
valid because in the approach which we have proposed the observation -
- equation is scalar and has (in contrast to the initial system (6)) a
simple structure. In this case the measured value is equal to the sum
of the statj.st ically independent signal and noise with known stochastic
characteristics. Therefore, remote observations have no fundamental dif-
ferences from the aerological sounding data, other than presence of spa-
tial correlation oF the errors (noise) [2, 7]. We note that the smooth-
i.ng of the spa ~ially correlated error~ in remote sensing data can be ac-
~ complished using adequate filtering procedures [4].
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Albert, A., REGRESSIYA, PSEVDOINVERSIYA I REKURRENTNOYE OTSENIVANIYE
(Regressio n, Pseudoinversion and Recurrent Evaluation), Moscow, Nauka,
1977 .
2. Denisov, S, G., Pokrovskiy, 0. M., "Correction of an Optical Model
- of the Atmosphere in Solving the Problem of Thermal Sounding," IZV.
, AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA (News of the USSR Academy of Sci-
ences, Physics of the Atmosphere and Ocean), Vol 13, No 10, 1977.
3. Pckrovskiy, 0. M., "Optimum Conditions for Indirect Sounding of the e
Atmosphere," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 5, No 12,
1.969 .
4. Pokrovskiy, 0. M., "Optimum Statistical Procedures for Spatial-Temporal
Assimilation of Meteorological Information," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOG-
IYA (Meteo rology and Hy~rology), No 7, 1975.
S. Timofeyev, Yu. M., Ueler, V., Shpenkukh, D., "Comparison of Computed
and Experimental Transmission Functions for C02 in the 15- N-Band,"
IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA, Vol 13, No 6, 1977.
6. Halem, M., Ghil, M., Atlas, R., Susskind, J., "The GISS Sounding Tem-
perature Impact Test," NASA TECHN. MEM. 78063, Goddard Space Flight
Cen?-ery Md . , 1978.
7. Schlatter, T, W., Branstator, G. W., "Errors in Nimbus-6 Temperature
Profiles and Their Spatial Correlation," PREPRINT NCAR, Ms. 78/050I
-1, 1978.
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r~~h or~�r T c: rni, ~rsr c~N~.i~
- 8. Spankuch, D., Dohler, W., "Statistische Charakteristik~ der Vertical-
profile von Temperature und Ozone und ihre Kreuzkorrelation uber Ber-
lin," GEOD. GEOPHY. VEROFF., B 11, H 19, 1975.
I
;
~
I
i
I
~
~
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UDC 551.509.6
METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE ICE-FORMING ACTIVITY IN A DIFFUSION CHAMBER
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 22-29
[Article by Candidate of Chemical Sciences B. Z. Gorbunov, N. A. Kakut-
kina, Candidate of Technical Sciences K. P. Kutsenogiy and N. M. Pshen-
i~hnikov, Institute of Chemical Kinetics and Combustion, submitted for
publication 19 September 1979]
Abstract: It is shown that the usually em-
ployed method for taking into account the
volume effect during the appearance of ice-
forming particles in a diffusion chamber can
lead to very great errors in the measured
values of the fraction of active particles.
Another method is proposed for determining
the true ice-forming activity, based on the
fact that there can be no volume effect when
there is a zero quantity af ice crystals.
[Text) In an investigation of the mechanism of ice formation on foreign
particles it is extremely useful to have data on the influence of super-
saturation on ice-forming activity. In studying.the influence of super-
saturation the diffusion chamber method is used. In this method ~the
particles are first sampled from the aErosol flow on a backing and then
appear in a diffusion chamber with a known supersaturation. In this pro-
cedure the sample is cooled to a stipulated temperature. Then a supersat-
uration is created over it relative to the ice by heating the ice surface
situated nearby and after so~e time the number of forming ice crystals is
- counted.
A peculiarity of the diffusion chambers method is that the reagent par-
ticles on the backing are situated considerably closer to one another
than in a cloud or fog. In this procedure the water vapor arrivixig from
the hea~ed ice surface does not stxffice for developing all the ice nuclei
[9, 10]. As a result, the'measured value of the concentration of ice nuc-
- :Lei is dependent on the number of nuclei in the sample (the so-called
vapor depletion, biil.k or volume effect) [3, 6-8, 10-1.1]. ~
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In order to clarify what the volume effect is dependent on, Lala and
Jiusto [10] carried out model computations of supersaturation in a
chamber of the diffusion type. This analysis indicated that in general
the supersaturation level in the chamber differs from an equilibrium
level, determined by the expression
~
SR' - P' f'w (T)T , ~1)
where Pi is equilibrium pressure of water vapor over a plane surface
ice source of vapor with a temperature of the upper plate in the
chamber T+ Q T, PW is the equilibrium pressure of vapor over a plane
water surface with a temperature of the lower chamber plate with the
sample T.
The water vapor, arriving from the upper plate, is expended on the lower
plate on the formation and growth of crystals and water droplets. As a
result, the effective supersaturation on the lower plate is lower than
- that determined using formula (1}. According to [10], the true supersatur-
ation in the chamber differs from that determined using formula (1) to a
greater degree the greater is the concentration of the hygroscopic nuclei
and ice crystals in the filter. Thus, the use of formula (1) is possible
only with suffieiently small concentrations of condensation nuclei and
crystallization levels.
~9~
m
-t ~ p m m~~ ;
~ m
.Z_ ~
~
.J ~
i . ~
1 -f . _
.s ~ �
- m . ~ ~ .
- -6 m
. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
-B ~
_ t .
50 'CO 100 ~ S00 lOA7~~ '
Fig. 1. Fraction of active particles of silver iodide in dependence on
their mean radius obtained by different authors in diffusion chambers with
~ T=-16�C and SW = 100% with different mean radii of particles. 1) [12J,
2) ~4]~ 3, 4). ~Sl~ 5) ~111~ 6) ~7~~ 7-9) [13], 10, 11) [12].
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In an investigation of artificial aerosols hygroscopic nuclei can be com-
pletely dispensed with. However, the forming ice crystals nevertheless
will decrease the supersaturation in the chamber. The influence of the
depletion effect, related to the growth of ice crystals, can be very
great on the measured ice-forming activity. The scale of this influence
can be estimated from Fig. 1, which gives the fraction of active particles
) of silver iodide in dependence on the mean size of the particles
measured in different diffusion chambers. The scatter of data is eight
orders of magnitude For cloud chambers the scatter of these same
data is only one order of magnitt~de A scatter of the value by eight
orders of magnitude makes it impossible to use diffusion chambers without
taicing the vapor depletion effect into account. Therefore, it is necessary
to have a procedure which makes it possible to take this effect into ac-
count in each specific case. .
Such a procedure was proposed in a study by Huffman and Vali [8]. The es- -
sence of the procedure is that on the basis of several measurements of
the concentration of ice nuclei (C) in.dependence on the sample volume
(V) there is extrapolation to a zero volume, where there can be no deple-
tion effect. An extrapolation law was derived in [8] on the assumption
that around each growing ice crystal there is a dea~tivation region whose
extent is not dependent on the number of nuclei in the sample.
In order to be convinced of the correctness of their assumptions, the auth-
ors of [8] compared the theoretical and experimental dependences of the
concentration of ice nuclei on the air volume passing through the filter.
However, the experimental dependence of the concentration of ice nuclei
o~n volume was obtained in a very narrow range of volumes (the volume
changed by a factor of four) and, in addition, with such volumes in which
the depletion of vapor is still very significant. As will be demonstrated
below, this can lead to very great errors in determining the region of de-
activation around the crystal, and accordingly, true ice-forming activity.
Thus, the correctness of the method for'taking into account the volume ef-
fect proposed by the authors of [8] was not experimentally substant~.ated.
The purpose of this study is an experimental investigation of the effect
- of vapor depletion and the development of a procedure making possible a
correct determination of the ice-forming activity;of aerosols in the dif-
fusion chamber.
Experimental Part
A study of the vapor depletion effect was made using silver iodide aerosols.
The method f~r obtaining silver iodide aerosols and determining their char-
acteristics was described in detail in [lJ. The aerosol was sampled using
a thermoprecipitator [1] on glass with a hydrophobic surface. A hydrophobic
surface was created by placing the glass in organosilane [14]. On glass
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with such a coating there is no condensation right up to supersaturation
relative to water SW = 1.03-1.04..
_ f
~ ~
?
. ~ ! ~
~ II~ -
9 , ` . 21 ~ ~ s
Fig. 2. Diagram of diffusion chamber. 1) thermocouplee, 2) glass with
sample, 3)' microscope ob~ective, 4) ice layer, 5) sample holder
A study of the influence of supersaturatio~ on the probability of ice for-
mation was made in a diffusion chamber which consists of two parallel
horizontal plates with a diameter~of 80 mm (Fig. 2). The distance between
the plates is 5 mm; the lower plate has a pro~ection along which a sample =
holder with a glass slides. In order to improve heat transfer between the
holder and the glass a thin layer of silicone oil is poured between them.
A sheet of aluminum foil with a thickness of about 50 � m is attached to
. the upper plate in the chamber in order to decrease the temgerature gra- -
dlents; a layer of ice is frozen to this plate. The temperature of the
ice surface and the glass was monitored using cc,pper-constantan thermo-
couples with a junction measuring N 0.3 mm. The error in measuring tem-
perature is 0.07�C. 1'Eie chamber was cooled by the vapor of liquid nitro- -
gen independently for the upper and lower plates. The maximum temperature
difference along the lower plate was less,zhan the error in determining
temperature (0.07�C), and along the upper plate was 0.13�C. The supersat-
uration in tfie chamber was determined using formula (1). The formation and
growth of ice crystals was observed using a NU-2 (Karl Zeiss) microscope.
The error in determ3.ning supersaturation was evaluated on the basis of
the accuracy in determining the maximum gradients. This value was about
o .
2/.
The real supersaturation in the chamber can differ from that computed using
formula (1) not only due to the temperature gradients, but also as a result
of water vapor losses in the chamber. In the absence of ice crystals, these
losses can be accounted for by the chamber walls, the glass and the conden-
sation nuclei present in the chamber. Accordingly, prior to the onset of
work in the diffusion~chamber the absence of 'Yextraneous" losses was check= _
ed. This was done by using the dew point, that is, by the regular registry of
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supersaturation at the time of appearance of water droplets on glass _
without a hydrophobic covering. This supers~turation must correspond
to SW = 100%. 1'he experiment gave S~,~ = 100f1% for the dew point. This -
i dicates an absence of extraneous losses and makes it possible to set
t~e supersaturation correctly.
igP, I d
0)
~
-2 ' ~ ~
-3 .
~9~ ~ ~
-1 �
-J .
-y ~ ~ i" ' -
-5 1
' -B
II :
ti ~
9 90Z 10~ ' 1p~ R
Fig. 3. Dependence of the measured fraction of active particles (a) and
probability of formation of last ice crystal with a quantity of particles
in the sample n(b) on the number of particles in the sample. I corresponds
to 10-~, II corresponds to 3�10-4.
T'he measure of the experimentally observed ice-forming activity of particles
(~Z,') was the ratio of the total number of forming ice crystals (Nice~ to
the number of aerosol particles (n) precipitated on the glass (n).
= Nice~n. (2)
Results and Discussion
- The depletion of a source of water vapor in the presence of ice crystals
has this result: the measured fraction of active particles is depen- ~
dent on the number of particles in the sample. Such dependences were ob-
tained experimentally. Typical dependences are illustrated in Fig. 3a. -
In order to obtain these dependences we took a number of samples with a
different concentration of precipitated particles and for each sample we
determined Nice and then zr,'(n). The true ice-forming activity can be de-
termined from the dependence ~'(n), This could be done most sfmply by us-
ing the procedure proposed by Huffman and Vali [8J: using the segment of
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the ~'(n) curve, determine the extEnt of the deactivation region around
the crystal and then extrapolate the curve to n= 0, where the depletion
effect cannot exist. For this we rewrite the extrapolation law in terms of
~ and n derived in [8]:
, E' n
c'=c(1-'~r ~ .
~ A ~3)
Here A is the total area of the sample, in our case equal to 60 mm2, r is
the deactivation radius.
However, in an attempt to apply this procedure to the experimentally de-
rived dependences ~'(n) it was found that the extent of the deactivation
region and also the true ice-forming activity ~ are highly dependent
on from what segment of the f'-n curve they are determined. In order to
confirm this we will turn to the ~ values cited below, computed using dif-
ferent pairs of points taken on the curve II in Fig. 3a. The coorclinates
of the four experimental points used were as follows: l) n= 3�103, _
~ 3�10'4; 2).n = 104, 2�10'4; 3) n~ 105, = 4�10'S; 4) n= 106,
= 3�10-6
True Ice-Forming Activity Computed from Different Pairs of Experimental
Points
No of points 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-3 2-4 3-4
~ ~ 7�10-4 1.6�10-4 3.2�10-3 10-3 0.79 1.5�10'9
As indicated above, the ~ values, computed using different pairs of points
on one and the same experimental ~.'-n curve, differ by nine orders of mag-
nitude of the ~ parameter. The f, value, computed using points 3 and 4, in
general contradicts the observed dependence of on n. In actuality, if
= 1.5�10'9, with n= 104 there should be 1.5�10'9�104 = 1.5�10-5 ice
crystals, that is, Nice - 0� In the experiment, however, two ice crystals
appear. Thus, the procedure for ta,king into account the vapor depletion ef-
fect proposed in [8] cannot be used in determining
Two reasons can be advanced for the unsoundness of the procedure. First, it
is possible that the theoretically derived extrapolation law (3) does not
- correspond to the experimental dependence ~'.(n). The extrapolation law (3)
was derived on the assumption that the regions of deactivation of adjacent
ice crystals do not intersect, that is ~
[7t = ice] rr-Na �1�
A (4)
Now we will check the satisfaction of this expression for the experimental
~`(n) curves. For this purpose we will select two pairs of values n and
fi' on the�curve II in Fig. 3a, for example, n= 105, 2.5�10-5 and
n= 106, = 3�10'6. After substituting these values into (3) we find
that the ratio (?tr2/A) = 0.95. Thus, even with the minimum Nice = 1 ex-
pression (4) is not satisfied. The second possible reason for the
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unsoundness of this procedure is in the very character of the dependence
of on n. This can be ~onfirmed by examining the dependence of on
n, cited in Fig. 3a. In the region of large n these curves, corresponding
to substant ially diFferent values, differ very little, by less than a
factor of t hree. [The procedure for determining ~ will be described below.J
Therefore, small errors in determining in this region during extrapola-
tion can lead to great errors in the values. Thus, despite the simplicity
and the eas e of application of the method for taking into account the de-
pletion eff ect pr~posed in [8], the errors arising in its use make its
practical.employment impossible.
In this connection, in this study we propose another procedure for estimat-
_ ing the true ice-forming activity. It is based on the fact that the deple-
tion eff ect cannot occur in the absence of ice crystals. The essence of
this procedure is as follows. With a gradual decrease in n by one and the
same number of times, for example, by a factor of three, there is registry
- of the miiiimum number of particles`in the sample with which ice crystals
are sti11 formed. With a further decrease in n crystals are not formed
in the sampl e during one experiment since due to the small number of par-
- ticles the probability of appearance of an ice crystal becomes ~ 1. _
Now we will examine the dependence of on n in greater detail. We will
discriminate two regions of n values: with large n there are ice crystals;
with small n there are no ice crystals. The minimum number of aerosol par-
ticles prec ipitated onto the glass with which at least one ice crystal is ~
still observed is denoted ni, whereas the greatest number of crystals with
which crystals are not observed is designated ni-1�
The number of ice crystals observed with ni by definition is equal to
['J1 = 1.C2] J~Jn~~ Ei~1L~.
If there was no water vap~r depletion effect, with ni a large number of
ice crystal s could appear, equal to
~,ni, that is, ~,ni~Nice i�
In the absence of ice crystals there can be no water vapor depletion and
therefore an absence of ice crystals with ni_1 means that
E nr- i < 1. .
By combining the last.two inequalities we obtain an estimate for the true
value of the fraction of ice-forming particles:
! f Nn ~ ,
> E = c, .
nl_ ~ n~
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We will carry out the following reasoning for a more precise estimate of
the true ice-forming activity. The fact that the last ice crystal in a
series of experiments with a gradual decrease in n is formed with the
concentration ni as a random event gives a probability of its realization
which will be denoted Pi. In principle, with a definite probability it
could be formed with any other n value, for example, with nk. The proba-
bility of realizing such a possibility wi1T be denoted Pk. The dependence '
of the probability of formation of the last ice crystal with the concen-
tration n on n is shown in Fig. 3b (the method for computing this depen- ~
dence is described below). According to this dependence, with some n
value the formation of the last ice crystal is most probable. With a
change in the true ice-forming activity the ~'(n) curve does not ~
chan e� there is onl a shift
8~ y parallel to the n-axis (see Fig. 3b). Thus,
the search for the ~ value from the dependence of on n involves find-
ing the ~ value for which the dependence ~,'(n) has the maximum when n=
ni.
Now we will proceed to the derivation of specific formulas making it pos- ,
sible to compute the ~ value. The probability of formation of the last
ice crystal with the concentration ni, Pi, according to the formulas of
the theory of probabilities, is ~
N .
pi = II Pm ' II ~ 1` Pm~~ .
' m=1 m~(
~
where P~ is the probabilit~ that with the concentration n~ not one ice
crystal appears, and (1 - Pm) is~the probability of the appearance of at .
least one crystal with n~. The Pm values in the case of absence of the .
_ depletion effect can be computed using the Poisson formula .
- e : n'" nm �
t - ~i ~
w~ere W~ is the probability of formation of ice particles with their
mean number ~ n,m. In the absence of vapor depletion P~ = Wp = e- In
the presence of the depletion effect the Poisson distribution is not satis-
fied because ice crystals do not appear independently of one another. This
complicates the computation of probabilities. However, in the absence of
ice crystals there can be no depletion effect. Accordingly, the probability
that not a single crqstal will be formed is identical both when there is a
depletion effect and when this effect is absent and is equal to e- ~ nm.
This means that the probability of having at least one crystal with any
n,~ value also can be determined correctly and is equal to (1 - e' ~ nm).
Thus, Pi can be written in the form
F,l~ e-:nm ~ ~1-e 'n"'). ~5)
~rt= t m=1
~ 30
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The ~ value is determined from the condition -
J~t (6)
~
It is impossible to express the ~ value in explicit form �rom this condi-
tion. Therefore, equation (6) was solved numerically. In a general case
a solution of equation (6) can be written in the form
~ = fl ~tl~
where f is a coefficient dependent on the ratio (nm/nm_1). In experiments
each subsequent n value usually diff ered from the preceding by a factor
of three. In this case f= 1.05. Thus, the proposed procedure makes it
possible to determine the value of the true.ice-forming activity on the
basis of the experimental dependence of on n. Since ~ is determined
with a minimum number of ice crystals, the depletion effect in this case
should exert no influence.
Now we will evaluate the error in determining the true ice-forming activ-
ity by this method. The error is attributable to the fact that with given
~ in principle there is a finite probability of formation of the last
ice crystal, not with ni, but with any other n value (see Fig. 3b); it is
true that this probability is less. Each of these possibilities must make
a contribution to the error proportional to the deviation from the mean,
L11g multiplied by the probability of realization of a given possibil-
ity ~k. The value of the error can be written in the form
~g~_ - ~gE + (Pr-, �c11g:'-~- Pr-a �2 O IgF' . . . )
~ ` - (Fr+, � ~ Ig Y P;+2 � 2 0 lg c' . . . )
or more compactly
~
-i- ~ Pk (i-k) :~lgE' (7)
k-i-1
Ig ~ ~ ]g E m
- ~ Pk (k-i) 41gE',
. k= j~'1 , .
where Q lg is determined by the interval of change in n and is equal
to -lg nk/nk_1'
When obtaining the experimentaZ dependence of on n each subsequent
n value differed from the preceding one by a factor of three, that is
0igc'= -0,5,
In computing Pk, and also the sums in (7), we took into account only the
first three-four terms, since a].1 the subsequent terms were small. As a
result ot the computations we obGained
~gE = 3a ~ ~~3.
31
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In addition, it is necessary to take into account the error in determin-
ing the number of particles in the sample, equal to 30%. With this taken
into account . .
~g ~ =1g E �.0,4. , . -
Such an error value allows a scatter in ~ values of the most by a factor
of 7, which agrees well with the experimentally observed scatter. We note
that the described procedure for determining the true ice-forming activity
was used only with f,< 10'1. With large ~ values it was impossible by de-
creasing n to attain an absence of ice crystals in the sample. In this
case the ~r, value was determined from the plateau region in the dependence
of on n. The knee in the curve and formation of a plateau were attain-
ed with a large number of ice crystals (10-50 on a glass with an area of
60 mm2), which is measured quite precisely. With small ~ values the vapor
depletion effect is far stronger; no plateau region was reached in the de-
pendence of on n because the number of ice crystals corresponding to
the reaching of the plateau was less than 1(see Fig. 3a). For this reason
the proc~dure described above was employed for determining
BIBLIOGRAPHY ~
1. Baklanov, A. M., Gol'dman, B. M., Gorbunov, B. Z., Kutsenogiy, K. P.,
Makarov, V. I., Sakharov, V. M., "New Apparatus for Investigating the
Ice-Forming Activity of Aerosols," IZV. SO AN SSSR, SERIYA RHIM. (News
of the Siberian Department USSR Academy of Sciences, Chemical Series),
Vol 4, No 9, 1:~76. -
2. Gorbunov, B. Z., Kutsenogiy, K. P., "Influence of Dispersion of Aero-
sols an Their Ice-Forming Activity," TRUDY GGO (Transactions of the
Main Geophysical Observatory), No 372, 1976.
3. �Bigg, E. K., Mossop, S. C., Thorndike, N. S. C., "The Measurements of
Ice Nucleus Concentration by Means of Millipore Filters," J. APPL.
I~TEOROL., Vol 2, No 2, 1963.
4. Cooper, A., "Ice Nucleus Measurements Using a Stober Centrifuge," THE
THIRD INTERN. WORKSHOP ON ICE NUCLEUS MEASUREMENTS, Laramie, Wyoming,
University of Wyoming, 1976.
5. Gerber, H. E., "Activity and Size of Aggregate Thermal AgI Particles," ~
THE THIR~ INTERN. WORKSHOP ON ICE NUCLEUS MEASUREMENTS, Laramie, Wyo-
ming, University of Wyoming, 1976. �
6. Gravenhorst, G., Georgii, H. W., Grosch, M., Meyer, D., "A Low-Press-
ure Diffusion Chamber for Ice Nuclei Detection," PROCEEDINGS EIGHTH
INTERN. CONF. ON NUCLEATION, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1975.
7. Huffman, P. J., "Supersaturation Dependence of Ice Nucleation by
Deposition of Silver Iodide and Natural Aerosols," REPORT N. AR 108,
Laramie, Wyoming. College~of Engineering. University of Wyoming, 1973.
32
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8. Huffman, P. J., Vali, G. J., "The Effect of Vapor Depletion on Ice
Nuclei Measurements With Membrane Filters," J. APPL. METEOROL., Vol
12, No 6, 1973.
9. King, W. D., "Vapor Depletion in Processing~Membrane Filters: The Ef-
fect of Chamber Parameters," J. APPL. MET~OROL., Vol 17, No 10, 1978.
10. Lala, G. G., Jiusto, J. E., "Numerical Estimates of Humidity in a Mem-
brane Filter Ice Nucleus Chamber," J. APP~. METEOROL., Vol 11, No 6,
1972.
11. Meyer, D., Gravenhorst,~G., "A Low'Pressure Diffusion Chamber," THIRD
TNTERN. WORKSHOP ON ICE NUCLEU$ MEASUREMENTS, Laramie, Wyoming, Univer-
sity of Wyoming, 1976.
12. THE SECOND INTERN. WORK~HOP ON CONDENSATION AND ICE NUCLEI, Fort Co1-
lins, ColQrado, Colorado`State University, 1971.
13. THE THIRD INT~RN. WORK5HOP ON ICE NUCLEUS MEASURII~fENTS, Laramie, Wyo-
ming, University of Wyoming,~1976.
14. Zettlemoyer, A. C., Hsing, H. H., "Water on Organo-Silane Treated Sil-
ica Surfaces," J. COLLOIb INTERFACE SCI., Vol 58, No 2, 1977.
33
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I~UR t)rFT.CTA[. i1SF, (1N1.,Y ~
UDC 551.(509.313: 524)
RESULTS OF COMPUTATION OF DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION DURING
CLOUDLESS WEATHER
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No S, May 80 pp 30-36
[Article by M. Alautdinov, USSR Hydrometeorolo gical Scientific Research
Center, submitted for publication 13 November 1979]
Abstract: The author presents the results of numer-
ical modeling of the diurnal variation of tempera-
ture in the free atmosphere, at the earth's sur-
_ face and in the active soil layer on the basis
of solution of the two-dimensional problem of .
deep convection in the atmosphere and the equa-
tions for heat conductivity in the soil.
[Text] A numerical modeling of the diurnal variation of temperature was
carried out for the purpose of perfecting an algorithm for computing
radiation heat influxes in a local weather forecasting model. This prob-
lem is a good test for checking a model in which there is simultaneous
allowance for the processes of convective, turbulent and radiative heat
exchange. '
A great many studies have been d evoted to the modeling of the diurnal var-
iation of ineteorological ele~ents; the first of these was carried out by
Dorodnitsyn [7]. The further development of investigations on the theory -
' of diurnal variation of ineteorolo gical elements is reflected in [3, 5, 6,
11, 12, 14, i5~, in w~ich the authors proposed mare perfect methods for
taking turbulent exchange in the atmospheric boundary layer into account,
as well as moisture exchange between the atmosphere and the active soil
layer and computation of radiative heat exchange.
The processes of convective exchange im the entire thickness of the tropo-
sphere were not taken into account in the problem of diurnal variation of
meteorological elements.However, under definite conditions the convective -
currents substantially redistribute the cloud cover and humidity fields,
which exerts a considerable influence on radiative transfer in the atmo-
sphere and the diurnal dariation of ineteorological elements.
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. . . . . . . . . . . r
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i
In order to take into account directly the processes of convective exchange
in the problem of diurnal variation of ineteorological elements, the authors
of [2] proposed a model by means of which it is possible to carry out com-
putations of inesoscale movements in t~:a entire thickness of the troposphere,
thereby taking into account such important factors as the temporal redis- -
tribution of cemperature, humidity and cloud liquid-water content. Due to
the fact that the physical model and the algorithm for its numerical solu-
tion ~aere set forth in detail in [2], here we taill mention only its prin-
cipal paints. -
A study was made of a plane layer of fihe atmosphere with a thickness H=
10 l~nand the active soil layer with a depth Hsoii = 1.2 m, for which the
equations o.f deep convection are solved numerically (in the layer from H
to the ground surface) and the thermal conductj.vity ~equation (from the
ground surface to Hsoil) � 2'he coefficient of vertical exchange kver is
considered to be a known function of altitude and the coefficient of hori-
zontal ex.change khor is assumed to be constant and equal to the correspond-
ing lc~,er at each level. It is assumed that heat transfer in the soil oc-
curs only under the in"luence of molecular heat exchange and the heat ea-
change coefficient in the soil is constant.
- The full variant of the model takes into account the processes of moisture
transfer in the atmosphere, but in the first stage of model ad~ustment it
was deemed desirable to carry out a series of numerical experiments
with a constant humidity field in an atmosphere at rest in order to be
able to analyze the patterns of the modeled temperature variation in the
_ simpler case of a cloudless atmosphere.
- The initiaZ system of equations of deep convection, with radiation heat in-
fluxes taken into account, is written in dimensionl.ess form using the fol-
lowing scales: ~ ' T 1~2
H, ~ T, ~ t=[HI ~g. T 1 J ' Po~
~ ~ (1)
, x0 t, V= H%c~ t, p= Po t~'l, t=.
Here H is the thickness of the convective layer, T is mean t~mperature of
this la~yer, ~ ~ is density at the lower boundary, g is the acceleration of -
free falling, ~ T is the temperature scale. -
_ With (1) taken into account, the system of dimensionless equations assumes
the form .
dv I dp ~ k~ d= v+ d( k~ dv 1~
dt - s dy s dy- ds ~
s d~t ~ ~2~
dm 1 d T , k d" w d( k~ dm ~
- 'Ql S dn ~ + s tly= + ds l s dz ~ (3)
~ a
a`-�~ + a ~d= ~ = (4 )
y
dT H di k~ d=T d'k, dT :.t ~St
cit ~
T ( dz + in) + s ey- + ds ~ s dr ) + T
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Here v, w are the horizontal and vertical velocity components, T, P are
the temperature and pressure deviations from their statistical values T
and P, s=~o (z)/P~ is a dimensionless parameter characterizing the
change in statistical density ~ with altitude, ~Ya is the dry adiabatic
_ temperature gradient, d T/ a z is the vertical gradient of background tem-
perature,
- d ,+~2' y' a ~ . -
~ P is the radiation heat influx, computed using the formula
~ - 1 dRb ' ~ ~6~
. EP=- , .
_ p cp as '
where cy is the specific heat capacity of air at a constant pressure, Rb
is the radiation balance, equal to the difference between the descending
and ascending radiation fluxes at each level.
Computations of the radiation fluxes and heat f.luxes are made separately in
the visible (0.4-0.75�m), near-IR (IR) (0.76-4f.t m) and far-IR 4�m)
parts of the spectrum using the method proposed in [9, 10, 13]. T'ne algo-
rithm for computing the radiation fluxes and heat influxes is set forth
in detail in [2].
System (2)-(5) is solved under the following initial conditions:
T (4~ ~l~ z) - T (z) .
~7)
, ~ ~ : � . 9~~' `~sq(,~),: : �
'U~~, y; ?)'=w~~0, U~ z)~=P�~~, y~.z) =0.. : ~ ,
The conditions of periodic ity of all the functions are applied at the lat-
eral boundaries
f~t. 90, z)=f~t, z)� ~8)
At the upper boundary and at the earth's surface (Zp) the attachment con-
- ditions are applied
v~- w= 0 with 2= H and z= Z~ . (9 ) ,
~
The upper and lower boundary are assumed to be ideally conductive of heat:
� T= 0 with z= H and z= Hsurf� (10) '
At the earth's surface use is made of the temperature continuity and heat ~
flux conditions.
For numerical solution of the system of equations (2)-(5) with the initial
and boundary conditions (7)-(1 0) use is made of a model with the introduc-
zion of artificial compressibil~.ty (16], used by many authors [4, 8] in
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solvinK the pruhlems of a viscous incompressible fluid. The applicability
of this method for solving problems of deep convection was validated in
~1~. .
T.he computations were made on a grid of 23 x 57 points of intersection in
the vertical and horizontal directions. Along the horizontal the dimen-
sional grid interval was constant and equal to 1 km. Along the vertical
the grid interval decreases from top to bottom in the lower kilometer lay-
er. The maximum grid interval in the free atmosphere is 1 km; the minimum
is 0.1 m(in tne soil). 'I'he authors of [2] carried out diagnostic computa-
tions of the radiation fluxes in the long-wave part of the spectrum, which "
were compared with measurement data. Comparison of the computed and actual ~
radiation fluxes revealed their satisfactory correspondence.
After the "blocks" for computing racliation [2] and convective currents [1]
were adjusted, it was possible to carry out computations using the full
system of equations (2)-(5). When carrying out computations definite dif-
ficulties arose in a finite-difference representation of the radiation
heat fluxes at the earth's surface. Numerical experiments indicated that
the use of a rather rough computation model for computing the divergence
of radiation fluxes leads to a considerable error due to the fact that the
absorption of radiation occurs in relatively thin soil.layers and t:~e ra-
_ diation heat influxes are very sensitive to the thickness of the absorp-
tion and radiation layers. An example of the sensitivity of the diurnal
variat3.or of temperature to changes in the depth of the emitting layer
is given in Fig. 1. It is easy to note that in the field of extrema.l val-
ues the temperature differences at the earth's surface attain 4-5�C, and
at the 2-m level 3-4�C.
As a result of a series of numerical experiments it was established that
there is a good correspondence between the actual and modeled tempera-
" ture variation when the thickness of the emitting layer is 10 cm and the
thickness of the absorption Iayer for the visible and near-IR radiation
is 15 cm. Naturally, in nature the thickness of the effective absorbing
, layers varies in a broad range: from several meters for the vegetation
cover to millimeters f~r.an even dense surface and therefore the adopted
parameterization characterizes some averaged state of the underlying sur-
face. Z'hereafter all the computations were made with the above-mentioned
values of the absorption layers.
We carried out four numerical experiments with modeling of the diurnal var-
iation of Cemperature, each of which occupied the period 1-3 days. As was
indicated above, the computations were made in an atmosphere at rest with
a constant background specific humidity and therefore for computations
a:~d cou.Yal~isons of the results of computations and observations we select-
ed cases of anticyclonic synoptic situations, that is, cases when cloud
cover was absent and there were no advective temperature changes at the
earth's surface.
37 ~
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7�C �
47 �
~ U) a .
c ~ � i �
~
?1 0 a ,
, : ~
n ~ ~
~ ~
~ ~ e ~ ~ $
'
_3
2i ~ ~
.
Q ~a L~~Q a ~
~T r ~ n ~ o
`a``~; .
7 a~. ~~x
-1 ---Z x~ ~4 05 .
-1 �
ta o 6 ~2 1B 0 S ~T ~B o 5v ~ hours . r
I 29P I ~TO P i
Fig. 1. Diurnal.variation of temperature at underlying surface and at the
level 2 m. 1971. 1) hi = 10 cm, 2) hi = 7.5 cm, 3) Agricultural Academy
imeni Timiryazev, 4) Moscow State University, 5) All-Union Exhibition of
Achievements in the National Economy ~
For comparison of computations with observations we used data from radio-
sonde measurements of the atmosphere at Dolgoprudnaya station and observa-
tions at the level 2 m, at the surface and in the soil at the stations of
the All-Union Exhibition of Achievements in the National Economy, Moscow
State University and the Agricultural Academy imeni T3miryazev.
~ We analyzed curves of the diurnal variation of temperature at the 2-m,lev-
el, at the underlying surface, in the soil and at the standard isobaric
surfaces in the free atmosphere. Naturally, in the course of computations,
in addition to temperatute data, information was received on convective
currents, but here we will discuss only an analysis of the temperature
field because the characteristics of small-scale currents cannot be compar-
ed with actual data. It can only be noted that in all the seiected cases
there was a s~table stratification of the atmosphere in the lower kilo-
meter layer of the atmosphere, as a result of which the intensity of the
convective currents did not exceed 0.5 cm/sec and pressure fluctuations
did not exceed several tenths of a millibar.
An example of the diurnal variation of temperature at the earth's surface
is represented in Fig: la, where in addition to the results of the comput-
ations (solid curve) data are given for observations at three stations. It
is easy to note that the computed temperature agrees fairly well with the
~ 38
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actual temperature. The deviations of the computed values from the actual
values are commensurable with deviations between observations at differ-
ent stations. For a mure complete quantitative evaluation we computed the
mean error in the computations relative to the curve constructed Uy averag-
ing the results of observations at three stations. At the hours of maximum
heating it is -0.8�C, whereas at the hours of maximum cooling it is -1.1�C.
Thus, the computed temperature is somewhat below the actual temperature. In
addition to the mean error we computed the standard deviations of the com-
putations and measurements at individual stations from the mean curve con-
structed by the method described above. 1'he values of the standard devia-
tions cr are given in the table. It can be seen from the data given in the
table that at the hours of maximum heating o'for the computed temperature
is commensurable with O'for individual stations. In the morning hours the
orfor computations exceeds by a factor of approximately 2 the 0'of observ-
ations.
Standard Deviations of Temperature from Mean Temperature Computed and Ob-
served at Individual Stations
, AxaAeatu� I'
J poecxb SHrrNpA- MrY B/xH:C Cpc~uee Pacwer
- ci epe~t~
~ sena 2 3 4 5 6
7 Ilo~taa 1 0,8i 1,12 0,8$ 1,03 2,13
2 1,45 2,36 2,01 ' 2,92 2,57
2.u 1 0,65 1,~30 1,03 1,43 2,33
2 0,37 0,23 0,2;i U,36 3,92
KEY: ~
1. Level and time
2. Academy imeni Timiryazev
3. Moscow State University
4. All-Union Exhibition of Achievements in the National Economy -
S. Mean
6. Computed
7. Soil ' .
Notes: 1) the mean square error at the hours of maximum cooling, 2) mean
square error at hours of maximum heating
The curves of the diurnal variation of temperature at the 2-m level are
~iven in Fig. lb. It is easy to note that the computed temperature values
are systematically exaggerated during the daytime hours: the mean error at
midday ~s 3.9�C. At nightti.me it decreases and is 0.5�C. The standard de-
viations, computed the same as for the earth's surface, are given in the .
table. Particularly great deviations are obs;erved at midday; they exceed
by an order of magnitude for observation:~ at individual stations. This
i.s evidently the result of a rather rough parameterization of turbulent
39
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exchange in the model. Plans call for the improvement of this block in
the future. .
mbvM6
-o,s
900 - 2
soo
~ U
0 ,~,s .
~oo ~1
� +
OSO
Z7 3 9 95 21 J.9 95 1 f,i v
I 79Y I JOY I
Fig. 2. Isopleths of deviations of computed temperature from actual temper-
ature (�C) in free atmosphere (Dolgoprudnaya station, 1971).
An example of deviations of actual temperature from the computed temp~ra-
ture in the free atmosphere is given in Fig. 2. On 29 May 1971 the results
of ineasurements revealed the existence of a diurnal variation of tempera-
ture, whereas.on 30 May it was disrupted in the layer above 500 mb by the
advection of cold and therefore as a comparison.it is desirable to examine
only the left part of the figure. It can be concluded from the nature of
distribution of the deviations that the computed diurnal temperature wave
has a somewhat lesser amplitude than the actual wave, but the maximum de-
viations do not exceed 2�C. The mean characteristics of the deviations of
computed temperatures from the actual temperatures could not be determined
because the actual data include the effects of advection and it is dif-
ficult to exclude these with a sufficient degree of accuracy.
Analysis of the thermoisopleths and comparison of the results of computa-
tions with the actual tempe~ature distribution in the upper meter soil.layer
indicated that the propagation of the computed thermal wave in the soil co-
incides well in phase with the actual distribution. The greatest deviations
of computed temperature from the mean for three stations are observed in the
evening hours (about 2100 hours) at a depth of 10 cm, where they attain
+5.4�C. At the same time it must be noted that the maximum differences be-
tween measurements at individual stations and the mea~ value in this case
~ are +2.6�C, and the maximum differences between measurements at stations
attain 4.5�. Thus, the differences between the computed and actual tempera-
ture values at this level are approximately of the same order of magnitude
as the scatter between observations at different stations. At a depth of 20
~m the di~fferences between the computed and actual temperatures do not ex-
ceed 1.6 C. However, it should be noted that in the model there is a more
rapid accumulation of heat in the soil than under real conditions, which
is noted particularly clearly when making computations for several days.
In this connection it appears desirable to carry out a further improvement
in the algorithm for heat transfer in the soil.
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These numerical experiments make it possible to formulate the following
conclusions.
1. The formulated model in general satisfactorily reproduces the diurnal
variation of temperature under the conditions of a cloudless atmosphere.
2. The computed temperature is systematically higher at the 2 m level, as
a result of which it is necessary to improve the processes of parameteriza-
tion of turbulent exchange processes in the atmospheric surface layer.
In the future plans call for carrying out a series of numerical experiments
taking into account the processes of moisture transfer and cloud formation
in the atmosphere.
In conclusion I express sincere appreciation to N. F. Vel'tishchev, who
gave great assistance in the writing of this article.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Alautdinov, M., "Numerical Modeling of Deep Convective Processes,"
METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 10, 1979. _
2. Alautdinov, M., Jel'tishchev, N. F., "Numerical Model of Diurnal Vari-
- ation of Meteorolagical Ele~aents," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Trans-
actions of the USSR Hydrometeorological Center), No 219, 1979.
3. Berlyand, M. Ye., "Diurnal Variation of Temperature,'Turbulent Ex-
change and the Radiation Balance," TRUDY GGO (Transactions of the
Main Geophysical Observatory), No 48(110), 1954.
4. Vel'tishchev,"N. F., Zhelnin, A. A� "Numerical Model of Convection
in a Flow With Vertical Shear.," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Transac-
tions of the USSR Hydrometeorological Center), No 110, 1973.
' S. Gavrilov, A. S., Gutman, L. N., Lykosov, V. N., "Nonstationary Problem
of the Planetary Boundary Layer of the Atmosphere With .Allowance for
Radiative Heat Exchange," TRUDY ZSRNIGMI (Transactions of the West
Siberian Regional Scientific Research Hydrometeorological Institute),
No 11, 1974.
6. Galushko, V. V., Yevteyev, A. P,, Ordanovich, A. Ye., "One Method for
Computing the Diurnal Variation of Temperature in the Atmospheric
Boundary Layer," TRUDY IEM (Transactions of the Institute of Experi-
mental Meteorology), No 6(44), 1974.
7. Dorodnitsyn, A. A., "On the Theory of the Diurnal Variation of Temper-
ature in the Mixing Layer," DOKLADY AKADEMII NAUK SSSR (Reports of
the USSR Academy of Sciences), Vol XXX, No 5, 1941.
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8. Zhelnin, A. A., "Some Results of Numerical Modeling of Convection
i^ an Unstably Stratified Flow with Shear," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA
SSSR, No 148, 1974.
- 9. Krasnokutskaya, L. D., Sushkevich, T.�A., "Analytical Representation -
of Integral Functions of Transmission of Clouds," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZ-
IKA ATMOSFERY I OKEANA (News of the USSR Academy of Scierices, Physics
of the Atmosphere and Ocean), Vol 13, No 5, 1977.
10. Krasnokutskaya, L. D., Feygel'son, Ye. M.,."Computation of Fluxes of
IR Solar Radiation in the Cloudy Atmosphere," IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA
ATMOSFERY I OREANA, Vo1 9, No ~.0, 1973.
11. Speranskiy, L. S., Kostrikov, A. A., Pushistov, P. Yu., "Local Pre-
diction of Temperature and Wind in the Atmospheric Surface Layer
Usiag a Model of the Planetary Boundary Layer," TRUDY ZSRNIGMI, No
29, 1978.
12. Speranskiy, L. S., Pushistov, P. Yu., Gutman, L. N., "Hydrodynamic
Models of Local Weather Forecasting," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA,
No 2, 1977.
13. Feygel'son, Ye. M., LUCHISTYY TEPLOOBMEN I OBLAKA (Radiant Heat Ex-
~ change and Clouds), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1970.
14. Shvets, M. Ye., "Diurnal Variation of Temperature and Radiant Heat
Exchange," IZV. AN SSSR, SERIYA GEOGR. I GEOFIZ. (News of the USSR
Academy of Sciences, Series on Geography and Geophysics), No 4,
1943.
15. Yudin, M. I., "Uiurnal Variation of Air Temperature and Heat Ex-
change," IZV. AN SSSR, SERIYA GEOGRAF. I GEOFIZ., Vol 12, No 4,
1948.
16. Chorin, A., "A Numerical Solution of the Navier-Stokes Equations,"
MATHEM. COMPUT., Vol 22, No 104, 1968.
;
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UDC 551(588.7+524 .32) (470.311)
INFLUENCE OF A LARGE CITY ON AIR TII~ERATURE
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 37-41
[Article by Professor V. N. Parshin, USSR Hydrometeorological Scientific
Research Center, submitted fur publication 14 December 1979]
Abstract: In the example of Moscow.the author
demonstrates the influence of a large city as
it develops and as thermal effluent increases
on the mean annual air temperature. The ar-
ticle also examines the problem of reducing
air temperature data to a uniform series,
reduced to the conditions of present-day
Moscow. Recommendations are given on deter-
mining the different probability of inean an-
nual air temperature.
[Text] A large city unquestionably increases the ambient temperature and
this occurs primarily due to the thermal effluent of industrial enter-
prises, operation of vehicles, thermal communications, heating of build-
ings and asphalt pavements under the influence of direct solar radiation.
However, a quantitative evaluation of this phenomenon has not been made.
We will attempt to clarify this problem in the example of Moscow, in par-
ticular, for mean annual air temperature. The problem was solved by a
comparison of long-term data for the meteorological station~of the TSKhA
(Agricultural Academy imeni Timiryazev) in Moscow and data for the meteor-
ological stations Mozhaysk, Klin, Serpukhov and Cherusti, situated.around
Moscow in a distance of 100-150 km (Fig. 1). Air temperature observations
at the TSKhA meteorological station have been made for the last 100 years
and at the mentioned meteorological stations around Moscow during the
last 45-50 years. Within the city, in addition to the TSKhA control
_ meteorological station, there are three other meteorological stations sit-
uated in different parts of the city: at the All-Union Exhibition of
Achievements in the National Economy, at Moscow State University and at
the center of the city in the neighborhood of Balchug. The period of ob-
servations at these stations is 25-30 years. The mean annual air tempera-
tures at the meteorological stations at the TSKhA, the All-Union Exhib-
ition of Achievements in the National Economy and Moscow State University
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are completely identical, but at Balchug meteorological station the tem-
perature is somewhat higher than at the remaining three stations. This
is attributable to the fact that Balchug meteorological station is situ-
ated in the immediate neighborhood of the thermal electric power station
and the canal into which the thermal power station discharges warm water,
which does not freeze even when temperatures are considerably below zero.
Therefore, Balchug meteorological station in general is not representa-
tive for the city, but reflects only the microclimate of the particular
small region. Thus, the TSKhA meteorological station with a 100-year ser-
ies of observations in actuality can be adopted for characterizing the
mean annual air temperatures for the city as a whole. A comparison of
the mean annual air temperatures for five-year periods for the joint per-
iod of observations for the TSKhA meteorological station and the neteor-
ological stations situated around Moscow at a distance 100-150 km is given
in Table 1. The air temperature for the meteorological stations around
Moscow is given as averaged for the four stations.
Table 1
� " Mean Annual Air Temperature (�C)
for Five-Year Periods
n~re �
C ' ~
,~ioxca~5ctt,
~ ~ KaE~H, F
ITATHJI2THA ~ Cepnyxon, o
eMK MoacoF 1 , ~ ~Iepycri? ~
~ (cpeaeRx) a
MOMtAACK M[ty~
~lu� .
1926-1930 3,5 ~ 3,4 0,1
1931-1935 4,3 4,l 0,2
" 1936-1940 5,(1 4,8 0,2
. r' c myra 1941-1945 3,4 3,2 0,2
i Fe~~ 19~6-1950 4,6 4,3 0,3 ~
1951-1955 4,3 4,0 0,3
1956-1960 ~ 4,6 4,1 0,5
� 1961-1965 4,7 4,l 0,6
1966--1970 a,ti 3,9 0.7
197i-1975 5,8 :~.0 0,8
1976-I978 -1.0 3.I 0.J
Fig. 1. Diagrammatic map of Moskovsk- KEY:
aya Oblast. 1) Five-year periods
2) Moscow
3) Mozhaysk, Klin, Serpukhov,
Cherusti (mean)
4) Difference
Tah1e ~ shaws that the excess of inean annual temperature in Moscow over the
surraunding stations is continuously increasing and during recent years has
attained 0.8-0.9�C. This is a result of intensive development of opera-
tians in the eapital, the incr~ase in transport, volume of production and
poFul~tioYY. For example, in Moscow from 1913 through the present time the
� voium~ of production has 3ncreased by a factor of 215 and the population
has inc=eased from 1.6 million to 7.9 million [Z].
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d.'C
qa ~
46 0
q
Q4 �f
, ~ .
QI .
ca '
1Dr79~f 1096'S'~D 99/1991{f. 19189~0 194F7945 193b~7960 197l-1l15 .
iaB~1&9D 19D1�',9Qf .191~191D 19~Tf-IfAS 19f6'193~ 996F196f 99IE1910 .
i491~klAf 19061~0 19If'1S1S 13U6'79l9 N31-1953 19661l/O
Fig. 2. Excess of inean annual air temperature at Moscow in comparison with
data for meteorological stations at a distance of 100-150 km.
Table 2
Values of Corrections (�C) to Observed Mean Annual Air Temperatures at
Moscow fur Reduction of Data to Conditions of Modern City
C[srcr.~eTitn P ~ IIonp~n-
flon ae- ~ nRrt~:ter~tA
- 1 ha s rp21 1 xa s rp. 2
' I
i881-1885' 0,90 1931-1935 ~ 0,70
1886-1890 ~ 0,90 1936-1940 0,70
1891-189~ I 0,85 1941-1945 0,65
1896-1900 i 0,85 1946-1930 0,60
1901-1905 ~ 0,85 1951-1905 0,50
1906-1910 t 0,80 1956-1960 0,40
1911-1915 0,80 1961-t9ti5 0,30
1916-1920 Q,7~ ; 1966-19i0 0,20
1921-1Q25 0,75 ' 1971-1975 0,10
192fi-I930 0,73 I 1976-1978 0,00
KEY:
1. Five-year periods
2. Group correction
Table 3
Long-Term Characteristics of Mean Annual Air Temperature for Modern Moscow
Maxi- Guaranteed probability, ~ Mini-
mum in 2 S 10 25 50 75 90 95 98 mum in
100 . 100
years vears
6.9 6.8 b.2 6.1 5.3 4.6 4.0 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.4
1938 ~ 1941
Thus, we confirmed that the influence of a large city on the temperature of
its ambient air is extremely significant. Now the question arises: how is
~i~. f~o~~sible to characterize the norm of inean annual air temperature at
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Moscow, the anomalousness and frequency of recurrence of temperature
over a long-term period? Indeed, for this it is necessary to have a
long-term period of observations for a modern city, and this is unavail-
able. The 100-year period of observations contains nonuniform data due
to the different influence of the city as it developed. We carried out
the reduction of long-term observational data on air temperature at Mos-
cow to a uniform series using the curve represented in Fig. 2, which was
constructed using the data in Table 1. This curve shows the excess of
mean annual air temperaturE at Mc~scow in comparison with the stations
surrounding it in a chronological sequence. The lower part of the curve
has been extrapolated to the zero value, that is, it is evident that 100
years ago there were no differences in air temperatures at Moscow and
at the stations surrounding it.
T�G .
a ,
s
- Nr
4
J
2
1BB0 9B9D 1900 19f0 1910 1930 1990 ;950 9960 9910 191d
1BBS 1B95 1905 99f5 9915 19JS 1943 i955 1965 1915
. Fig. 3. Variation of inean annual air temperature at Moscow (the data are
reduced to the conditions of the modern city).
z(T-M) .
4 ~ .
~ ~
y~ . .
- -f
'e
-B
� -11 ~
�16
leao 1~90 ~900 99T0 1910 19J0 1940 1930 1960 19701970
199s 1893 f905 19I5 1915 19J5 1945 1935 1965 1~S
Fig. 4. Variation ot the integral value of deviations of inean annual air
temperature at Moscow from the norm (the data are reduced to the conditions
of the modern city).
- 46
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~
The reduction of ob servations of air temperature at Moscow to the condi-
tions of the modern city and thus obtaining a c~mparable series of ob-
servations was accomplished in the following form:
~'=c+ (o,s-e r~,
where T is the mean annual air temperature, reduced to the conditions of
modern Moscow; t is the observed mean annual air temperature; (0.9 -L~t)
is the correction for the observed temperature as a result of the influ-
ence of the city, for which ~1t is determined from the graph in Fig. 2.
The value of the co rrections for five-year periods are given in Table 2.
After the 100-year series of observations for Moscow was reduced to con-
ditions of the mod ern city it was possible to determine the mean long-term
value and the values of different frequency of recurrence of the mean
annual air tempera ture, which are given in Table 3.
The norm of the mean annual air temperature for a 100-year series of ob-
servations, reduced to the conditions of present-day Moscow, is 4.6�C.
If we simply take the mean value and the 100-year series of observations,
it is 4.0�C, and the maximum and minimum values are 6.7�C in 1975 and
1.7�C in 1888 respectively.
Now, when a matched series of observations has been obtained, it is pos-
. sible to analyze the variation of the mean annual air temperature in Mos-
cow in a chronolog ical series. The variation in mean annual temperature
for the 100-year o bservation period is given in Fig. 3, from which it can
be seen that during the first 50 years the temperature was somewhat lower
than during the subsequent 50 years and the amplitude of air temperature =
in the second part of the period increased considerably. In order to rep-
resent these charac teristics more graphically, in Fig. 4 we have shown the
variation of the integral value of the deviations from the norm. The fig-
ure rather clearly shows two periods cold until I932 and warm since
1932. During the cold period the sum of the deviations from the norm was
-15.4�C, that is, o n the average during these 53 years the mean annual
temperature was below the norm by approximately 0.3�C. During the warm
period from 1933 through 1978 the total deviation of the mean annual tem-
perature from the norm was +18.8�C or as an average for the 47 years the
temperature was above the nora~ b~ approaimately 0.4�C. If the mean temper-
ature is computed for the mentioned cold and warm periods it will be 4.3�
and 5.1�C respectively and the mean for 100 years, as already noted, will
_ be 4.6�C.
It is difficult to say what the variation of the mean annual temperature in
Moscow will be in the future. It can only be noted that the last three
years (1976-1978) were relatively cold. It is also difficult to say with
assurance whether this is ~:he beginning of a replacement of a warm period
a cold period. Acr_ordingly, 1.t is impossible to agree with the recently
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appearing recommendations on determining the air temperature norm on the
basis of data for the last 30-40 years. We will assume that the tempera-
ture norm and the long-term air temperaturP characteristics must be deter-
mined on the basis of the entire long-term series of observations of not
less than 80-100 years, but for large cities it is necessary to introduce
a correspon3ing correction, as was done, for example, in this article.
It must also be noted that with different kinds of computations and conclu-
sions concerning the change in climate use i~ made for the most part of
long series of observations of air temperature such as are available, pri-
marily, for meteorological stations situated in the large cities. And here
it is particularly important to take into account the ~nfluence of a large
city on air temperature, particularly since the warmings or coolings of cl i-
ate in different regions or at a global scale cited in the literature only
amount to tenths of a degree.
The second peculiarity of the temperature variation with time, as we have
already noted, is its great variability in the second half of the hundred-
year observation period, as is confirmed by the standard deviations (O').
Whe�reas for the period 1879-1931 O'= 0.8�C, for the period 1932-1978 Cr =
1.2�C.
Above we have discussed the mean annual air temperature. Similarly we ex-
amined data on the mean air temperature during the cold and warm periods,
during the colclest month January and the hottest month July. In all
cases the conclusions drawn were the same as for the mean annual tempera-
ture. This is completely understandable because the influence of a large
city on air temperature is constant and is not dependent on season of
- the year. The only difference is the heatiag of buildings during the cold
season, which durin~ the warm period is evidently compensated by the -
stronger influence of heating of the surface of the buildings and as-
phalt.pavements by direct solar radiation. Thus, the corrPctions cited in
Table 2 for Moscow can be used for the purpose of reducing the series of
observations to the conditions of modern Moscow and obtaining the long-term
characteristics and the values of different frequency of recurrence for
mean air temperatures from a month to a year.
In conclusion we will eapress the established effect of the city on air
temperature by the quantity of thermal energy. The computations nade be-
low have an approximate character and make no pretense at a high accuracy
and are intended only to show the order of magnitude. The territory of
the city is now 878.6 1~2 [2]. We will assume the air layer to be equal
to the boundary layer of the atmra5phere, that is, 1 km; we will assume
that at the upper boundary of this layer the influence of the city on _
air temperature disappears and at the ground it is equal *_0 0.9�C. Pro-
ceeding on this basis and assuming the corresponding density and heat cap-
acity values for air we find that for hea~ing the indicated air volume
over the city it is necessary to have 3.94�1014 J. Since we are operating
with the mean diurnal air temperatures, the thermal energy will be 4.6�
103 MW.
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It is interesting to compare these data with the results of computations
of the production of thermal energy made by American scientists ;1]. Ac-
cording to data published by Lees, in the Los Angeles region the produc-
tion of thermal energy, scaled to an area of 1,000 km2, is about 7�103 MW.
' 'I'hus, the results of our computations and those of American scientists
have an identical order of magnitude. For a real idea concerning the de-
- termined values we note that the power of the Volga Hydroelectric Power ~
Station imeni Lenin is 2.3�103 MW.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. VLIYANIYE CHELOVEKA NA GLOBAL'NYYE KLIMATICHESKIYE USLOVIYA (Man's In-
fluence on Global Climatic Conditions), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1972.
- 2. MOSKVA V TSIFRAKH: STATISTICHESKIY YEZHEGODNIK (Moscow in Figures: Stat-
istical Yearbook), 1978, Moscow, Statistika, 1978.
~ -
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CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION AND FALLING OF ABUNDANT SHOWER PRECIPITATION
IN EASTERN TRANSCAUCASIA ,
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 42-48
- [Article by Candidate of Geographical Sciences M. A. Dzhabbarov, Geography
Institute Azerbaydzhan Academy of Sciences, submitted for publication 27
August 1979]
Abstract: The article discusses the characteristics
of the territorial distribution of intensive abun-
dant shower precipitation in the Azerbaydzhan SSR.
For the first time the authox has computed the mean
daily quantity of precipitation by gradations, the
mean of the maximum intensities of shower precipi-
tation and the duration of these showers for char-
acteristic stations. Regionalization was carried
out with respect to the maximum intensity of shower �
precipitation. It was possible to determine the
structures of high-altitude and surface pressure
fields and the quantitative indices of ineteorolog- ~
ical elements causing the falling of abundant show- "
er precipitation.
[Text] In individual regions of Transcaucasia it is common for heavy shower
precipi.tation to fall, causing strong mudflows in river basins, causing
considerable material loss to agriculture and population. Despite indi-
vidual investigations of such showers [1-4], the meteorological condi-
tions for their falling in general in the territory of the Azerba~dzhan
SSR have not been adequately studied. For investigating this we selected '
those cases when the diurnal quantity of precipitation was ~ 70 mm with
an intensity of showers ~ 1.5-2.0 mm/min. During the period 1950-1977 we
selected 109 cases of abundant ~recipitation in accordance with the adopt-
ed criteria.
We note that despite the lesser territory, the range of annual sums of pre-
cipitation is rather great and is characterized by a great nonuniformity in
distribution. These mean annual sums vary from values less than 200 mm to
1,700 mm or more. The greatest annual precipita`ion (1,300-1,800 mm) is
50 .
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noted on the southern slope of rhe Greater Caucasus (Alibek 1,394 mm)
and in the foothill areas of the Talysh (Bursulum 1,838 mm). In the
Lesser Caucasus, in the Nakhichevanskaya ASSR, the annual precipitation
does not exceed 800-1,000 m, and in the Kuro-Araksinskaya Lowland decreases
to 200-300 mm. The zone of maximum precipitation is at an elevation 2,800-
3,000 m(at Talysh 800-1,200 m). In the annual variation the maximum
falls in May-June and September-October, and the minimum in January and
August. Sixty-seventy percent of the annual precipitation in the invest-
igated region falls from April through September and has a shower character.
The diurnal quantity of precipitation during the considered period often
- is maximum on the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus (4-14 cases)
and in the Talysh region (3-9 cases); it is relatively less in the Lesser
Caucasus (2-3 cases). In lowland regions the diurnal precipitation sums
r.arely exceed 80-90 mm, whereas in the mountains they frequently attain
200-350 mm (Alibek 188 mm, Bilyasar 334 mm).
ioo
Xa66~aaapc; ~ ~,~ubex
tr , � ~9j,~
. ~ +
t3~
a`~.--~,~~~ ~ . �
' ~ ~ `+Ny6a
Kca�Myzan ~Q yop~~K ~H ~ � n ~ CqHNCHJf
4)' t o~~ 7't"s ~~?iiJ+ .
, C'`AxG'Q1QQ. � lllCffU o 0 0o t~'�'~:~ ,
: e o e a'~ Xil/III/ji/X
: . � . . y +T o0 0 ~ym~o~e~~'r
~~~'~T~~~xup`oea6oa~'' ~~BaNdax+ +
t...'~Q.:iX:GCNt1 fL~l,~2X +l yy~~ F t}-}.� ~CH~d'Q~ 1~1Qf!l;QLU
\;:n y + /~l0lfVQ: + �
y+ ' ~ ~~t{_~
~ ? t''~' ~
Amc~~ ',Ywpdariup; , .j'6AKY � ,
,~'%'o~ -r +r 'Ifa~v-hfaiqMea
~ /c;~�cg . Crenaearrip'm,' '
41 } t .1~ MOPf
~ ~ i ~ + y,�. . . ,i ~
' ~ ~u~y.~ru: t +
~llG~by)~` ~y. * + , � ' + f ~
~ ' � ~~~/T(fUlNUMp + I L~"�
~tifl4 uv!9a h ~ , ~
, ti:1 : . c;~ . i.., + i r o, ~
~.rS�~i~.'P~t~~a~.7L r)~ ' ri~ V
`_'~'~y-^ ~ ~ ,r r c ~ +
~ + � 3
fAepuno o` ~ i_*_i
.,1~* t ~o o c+/ICHflOr74N6
6yP~~yX � ~ ~r:~ 4
+r c::.: .
�~{:,f AClcpa
Fig. I. Map of regions of maximum intensity of shower precipitation. 1)
6-11 mm/min, 2) 4-6 mm/min, 3) 2-4 mm/min, 4) 0.5-2 mm/min.
The mean d~1il_y quantity of such precipitation, for the first time computed
by the author for different stations in Eastern Transcaucasia, is given in
Table 1. It follows from this table that abundant precipitation during in-
dividual years with a gradation 70-lOQ mm/day falls in all mountain re-
gions of the Azerbaydzhan SSR, and with a gradation 131-160 mm/day or
...;~e only on the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus and the
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foothills of the Talysh Mountains. An example is the abundant precipita-
tion observed on 16 September 1962 at Talysh, on 8 June 1963 in all moun-
tain regions, on 16 August 1955, on 19 August 1964, 16 July 1973 ~n the
southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, etc. In individual regions of the
republic the maximum intensity of showers varies in a wide range. For ex-
ample, the maximum intensity of showers (Table 2) on the southern slope
of the Greater Caucasus (Alibek 10.7 mm/min), in the Lesser Caucasus
(Lachin 9.4 mm/min) and in the Talysh (Bursulum 5.1 mm/min) attains
4-llcam/min, whereas in adjacent regions of the Armenian SSR (Kirovsk
5.5 mm/min) and the Dagestanskaya ASSR (Khalavyurt 2.2 mm/min) it does
not exceed 3.5-5.5 mm/min.
A high intensity of showers (1.5-2.0 mm/min) is observed in the Priaraks-
inskaya Lowland of the Nakhichevanskaya ASSR. On the northeastern slope
of the Greater Caucasus it is 2.5-3.5 mm/min and is noted over mounta,.m-
ous sectors, which is important to take into account when preparing a
weather forecast. In the lowland and foothill regions of the republic it
is 0,9-2.5 mm/min (Fig. Z).
- In the Azerbaydzhan SSR the�mean maximum shower intensities, computed for
the first time, vary in the range from 0.5 to 4.5 mm/min. The highest inten-
sity of showers is on the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus (9-11 mm/~
min) is observed at an elevation of 1,800-2,300 m, on the northeastern
slopes (2-3.5 mm/min) at elevations 400-700 m and 1,900-2,000 m, on the
northern slopes of the Lesser Caucasus (4-9.5 mm/min) at an elevation
1,000-1,700 m, in the Talysh (2-5 mm/min) at an elevation of 700-1,200 m,
and in the Nakhichevanskaya ASSR (1.5-2.0 mm/min) elevations 800-900 and
1, 500-1, 700 m,
Showers with.a mean intensity 3-5 ~/min or more are usually not very pro-
longed a maximum of 30-60 min, but most frequently 5-15 minutes, after
which their intensity decreases to 0.5-1.5 mm/min (Tab1e 3).
An analysis of r.adicsonde observations in the regions Mashtagi, Lenkoran'
and Tbilisi during the years 1950-1977 were determined using the quanti-
tative criteria of the principal meteorological elements. It was found
that in all cases of the falling of heavy abundant precipitation in the
Axerbaydzhan SSR 70 mm/day) the air temperature over Transcaucasia is
18-24�C at the earth's sur~ace. It varies insignificantly to an altitude
of 1,000-1,200 m, aloft it decreases sharply to 8-15�C at 1,500-2,500 m ;
and to -5, -15�C at3,500-5,500 m. In general, the penetration of cold air ,
- from the north and northwest in the territory of the Azerbaydzhan SSR
leads to a decrease in air tempe .~ture in 1-1.5 days on the average by.
8-12�C, and sometimes by 10-14�C. Relative air humidity on a day of abun-
dant precipitation is 80-90% at the earth's surface, 60-85% at 1.,400-1,600
m and 75-87% at 3,000-3,500 m, that is, there is a quite high relative'
humidity in the entire layer of the troposphere. In particular, over the -
Talysh an increase in relative humidity by 12-15% is observed at 2,000-
2,500 m in comparison with the lower layer. The mean specific humidity =
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values in the lower troposphere on a day with precipitation vary in the
range from 8.5 to 12.9 g/kg and gradually decreasing, constitute 2.0-4.7
g/kg in the middle layers [5]. Frontal precipitation falls with a specific
humidity ~ 7 g/kg and a vertical gradient > 0.6�C/100 m[8], With the in-
trusion of cold air from the west, across the Black Sea, the relative and
specific humidities are always high and showers are intensive (especially
in the mountains on the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus).
Table 1
Mean Daily and Maximum Quantity of Abundant (more than 70 mm) Precipitation
mm/day
~ 4 I'panauiiil, ~ia~/c~r
CTBH[(IIR MB~CCN\fyM Cpe~xee '
~ 1 2 3 70-100 I101-130I131-1601 >160
~ Ka6~rauapa 176,5 99,9 79,9 123,3 143,6 176,5
~ 3aKaraa~ 172,? 9R,4 84,0 115,5 , - 166,6
~ Aax6ex i98;2 138,5 83,2 114,4 136,3 188,2
sYpc~onyM 334,2 153,7 80,4 115,9 145,9 194,6
10 b"pACap 353,9 108,8 84,3 112,1 ] 55,1 269,4
. 11 ~e xx~ 263.2 130,7 ?4,1 I15,6 154,4 263,2
~ax-M aa 147,0 93,6 80,0 - 138,7 -
12 hyrxame$ 129,0 78,2 76,2 104,6 - _
13 BaxAaes 105,7 86,6 81,5 ]05,7 -
KEY:
l. Station 8. Bursyulum
_ 2. Maximum 9. Bilyasar
3. Mean 10. Lerik
4. Gradations, mm/day 11. Kakh-Mugal
- 5. Kabyzdara 12. Kutkashen
6. Zakataly 13. Vandam
7. Alibek
_ In the overwhelming number of cases on days with abundant precipitation -
the winds at 2.5-3 km in Transcaucasia are replaced by southwesterly and
westerly winds (75-85%), below which there is a predominance of northerly
and northwesterly. Over the Talysh, with winds of easterly and northeast-
erly direction, at 1.5-3.0 the relative humidity attains 100% and the ~
quantity of precipitation during the day exceeds 100 mm. This is attrib-
utable to the closeness of the Caspian Sea, which enriches the air masses
passing over its surface by water vapor, and the presence of the Talysh
Mountains, which favor the abundant falling of precipitation. With the
penetrat~on of cold air into the Azerbaydzhan SSR the winds in the surface
layer, under the influence of local orography, occupy southerly and south-
westerly directions on the southern slopes of the Greater Caucasus, north-
~asterly and easterly in the Lesser Caucasus and Talysh. In the Kura-Arak-
sinakaya Lowland the winds for fhe most part'have southeasterly, easterly
~na nc~r~hwesterly iiirections.
� 53
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Table 2
Intensity of Shower Precipitation, mm/min
Station Elevation, Maximum Mean of abso-
m lute maxima
Alibek 1750 10.7 4.46
Zakataly 487 3.4 2.88
Damarchik 1170 6.5 3.59
Akhchay 1000 6.8 0.07
- Kutkashen 679 6.0 3.35
Kuba 550 2.4 2.24
YYrYz 2070 3.2 2.78
Khynalyk 2048 0.8 0.57
Akstafa 331 0.4 0.32 ~
Kirovabad 312 4.4 2.80
Aterk 1043 4.0 2.36
Istisu 2294 4.0 3.01
Lachin 1151 9.4 3.08
Dashkesan 1655 3.7 ~ 2,23 -
Geygel, shamkh. 2475 1.0 0.43
Geokchay 107 3.8 2.08
Mashtagi 27 2.5 1.78
Lenkoran' 20 5.0 3.58
Bursulum 778 5.1 3.86
- Nakhichevan' 975 2.1 1.97
Paragachay 2300 0.5 0.37
Shakhbuz 1199 0.5 0.41
It is important to note that during abundant shower precipitation over the
Talysh, judging from radiosonde data, above 2.0-2.5 km there is a predom-
inance of strong southwesterly and westerly winds and the propagation of
cold northeasterly winds into the depths of the region is restricted by the
elevations of the mountain range. Accordingly, the forced rising of moist
' shower clouds occurs in the foothill zone of the Talysh, where abundant
precipitation falls, and not over the high mountains, both in the Greater
and in the Lesser Caucasus. In regions situated at a higher level, the
quantity and intensity of precipitation sharply decrease. In general, 1-1.5
days prior to the falling of abundant shower precipitation'the mean temper-
ature aloft is several degrees higher and there are winds of a southwest-
erly and westerly direction. A shifting of the prevailing wind direction ~
by 180� and a marked decrease in air temperature occurs 10-12 hours ~rior to
the formation of heavy shower clouds.
An analysis of the pressure pattern charts indicated that abundant shower
precipitation arises when there are meridional transformations of the
thermopressure field in the troposphere, when a trough or a cyclone with
cold centers are formed over the Black Sea and Asia Minor aloft (Fig. 2).
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Table 3
Intensity of Special Cases of Showers in Different Regions, mm/min
1?iaxc~?~~. 3 I1po~~.9iiC11TC.lbfIOCTh, .1It/K -
jjala mirencso- i
1 HOCTb 5 I I 15 I 20 I 30 I 90
4 CrenaHaKepT - 827 M .
5 VI 195~' ~ 3,43 ~ 3,25 f 2,39 I 1,75 ~ 1.3E ~ 0,93 ~ U~71
5 Wywa -1358 ac
8 ~~I I936 ~ 4,00 ~ 1,83 ~ 1,23 ~ 1,30 ~ 1,30 ~ 0,70 ~ 0,58
6 Ky6a - 55o M
18 V I 935 ~ 2,10 ~ 1,G8 ~ 1,35 ~ 1,09 ~ 0.98 ~ - ( -
] TI2NKOpflHb-- I2 M ~
I6 1X 1942 ~ 2,18 ~ 2,00 ~ 2,00 ~ 2,00 ~ 1,84 ~ 1,73 ~ 1,80
$ A:txGetc- 1750 ~
- ~ 6 1959V I I I I 10,7 l 4,10 I 3,31 I 2,84 I 2,16 I 1,50 I 1,1 T
9 3axaran~ - 487 ac ,
7-8 ~~II 1951 ~ 4,80 ~ 3,81 ~ 2,20 ~ 1,77 ~ 1,59 ~ 1,33 ~ 1,12
~ 10 Aa~capvNK - 1 I70
30 V1 1953 ~ 6,50 ~ 2,62 ~ 2,02 ~ I,EO ~ 1,26 ~ 0,85 ~ -
11 K)'mameN - 679 at
18 IX 195T ( 3,40 ~ 1,85 j 2,02 ~ 1,78 ~ 1,51 ~ 1,06 0,90
12 Be.noKax~ - 410 '
30 iX 1968 ~ 6,20 I I,G4 ~ 0,95 ~ O,fO ( 0,50 ~ - ~ -
KEY:
1. Date ~
2. Maximum intensity
� 3. Duration, minutes
4. Stepanakert
5. Shusha
6. Kuba
7. Ler..v~ran'
8. Alibek
9. Zakataly
10. Damarchik
I1. Kutkashen
Z2. Belokany
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Powerful advection of cold in the Asia Minor region favors an intensific-
ation of the high-altitude frontal zone and the development of a cyclone
here, with its subsequent movement in the direction of the Caucasus. At
this time over central and :restern Europe there is a well-developed high
ridge with surface high-pressure centers over the Baltic Sea region and
the European USSR. There is powerful heat advection in the west and at the
center of Europe. The axis of the high-altitude frontal zone passes
_ through Moscow, Bucharest and Athens and bends toward Transcaucasia. Thus,
as a result of ineridional transformation of the thermopressure field and
circulation over Europe, the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea and
Asia Minor there is a meeting of cold northwesterly and warm southwest-
erly air masses, a surface cyclone develops and shower precipitation forms
in Transcaucasia.
.
B= high ~ e %I.' ~z ~ ~
. H ~
H = I.OW i ~
~ % ~ ~ ~ 1
~ axK
i
~ ~nrKa~~`- inT ~ / X
~ ~ ` ~ t ~ j % H ~ i
_-0 ~ ~ t ~
1 j ~ i6 ~ ~ /
/ T ~/161EE~ ~~~i i`~ ~ OM K
C~ ~~i ~ ' i { r.~ / i
~ ~ , ~ / ~ / ,i'- .
~ / ~
_ ~ ' ` K._ +y� 1 ~ '
1 I -
1 1 i~ ~ ~
~ ~
Fig. 2. Thermopressure field in the middle troposphere prior to penetration
of cold air into Eastern Transcaucasia and the falling of shower precipita-
tion.
In an analysis of the meteorological and aerosynoptic materials it was es-
tablished that over the studied territory in the overwhelming majority of
cases (92%) the falling of abundant shower precipitation was associated
with the passage of cold fr.onts. In the case of movement of precipitation-
forming processes from the west across the Black Sea and Georgia abundant
shower precipitation occurs more frequently in the western regions of the
_ Azerbaydzhan SSR (45%), whereas with their passage from the east, across
the Caspian Sea, they are frequent in the eastern regions of the republic
(28%). With the simultaneous penetration of cold air from the two direc-
tions (18%) precipitation falls everywhere (Fig. 3).
Analyses of the materials show that with movement of cold fronts across the
Kura-Araksinskaya Lowland there is an intensive upward rorcing of the pre-
frontal moist warm air along the slopes of the surrounding Greater and
Lesser Caucasus. Numerous lateral ranges somewhat slow the movement of
56
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the surface front and cold air behind the front is propagated aloft. Indi-
vidual branches of the cold front, bending around the mountain ranges, are
directed upward along the river valleys, causing a sharp decrease in air
temperature with local elevation. This results in creation of favorable
conditions for forming of thick cumulonimbus clouds and the falling of
intense abundant shower precipitation. It falls for the most part when
there is a great instability and high-moisture content of the air masses in
the frontal zone and when orographic factors are operative.
_ ~ M ~ " .
~ ~ H B = high
~
I, a ~ H = low
~ ,
~ ~
I `
~ ~ ~ ~d 1~~ M �OMCK
I H ~D'
` D
~ '
,wK,'v0 H
1 ~ ~H
, Fig. 3. Surface synoptic situation with the penetration of cold air into
the Eastern Caucasus and the falling of abundant shower precipitation.
In addition to cold intrusions, intensive shower precipitation also �alls
with the arrival of southerly cyclones (7%). Southerly cyclones, usually
arising over the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, move eastward across
Asia Minor to the south of the Caspian. In such cases there is a rear in-
trusion (for the most part from the east} of cold air into the investi-
gated region with the falling of heavy shower precipitation, the daily
quantity of which does not exceed 80-90 mm, and the intensity is Z.5-2.5
mm/min or more. Less frequently shower precipitation falls with the de-
velopment of local (air-mass) atmospheric processes (2y), also associated
with meridional synoptic processes.
Thus, under the conditions prevailing in the Azerbaydzhan SSR heavy showers
usually fall with the intrusion of cold air masses behind cold fronts with -
a more meridional transformed pressure field. The forming of a high-alti-
tude trough or the individual center of a cyclone with cold foci over
Asj~ M~_r.nr, a great instabilj.ty and high moisture content of the air
masses in the frontal zone are important factors for the falling of in-
tensive shower precipitation. An important role is also played by the com-
~lex orography of texrain in the republic, exerting a mechanical effect on
the dynamfcs of circulation processes and on the development of powerful
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;
vertical flows over t~ie mountainous part of the basins of individual riv- ;
ers. The B1ack.Sea and the Caspian Sea play a leading role in the moisten-
ing of air and the falling of precipitation.
BIBLIOGRAPHY ' ,
1. Aleksandryan, G. A., ATMOSFERNYYE OSADKI V ARMYANSKOY SSR (Atmospheric !
Precipitation in the Armenian SSR), 1971. ;
2. Gabriyelyan, G. A., Khachaturyan, A. G., "The Ararat Basin as a Factor !
in Mudflow Formation," IZV. AN ARM. SSR, NAUKI 0 ZII~E (News of the
Academy of Sciences Armenian SSR, Earth Sciences), Vol 17, No 1, ~
1964. ~
3. Gogishvili, K. S., ISSLEDOVANIYA TSIRKULYATSIONNYKIi FAKTOROJ GENEZISA i
KLIMATA GRU~ZII (Investigations of Cireulatory F~etors in the Genesis +
of the Climate of Georgia), 1974. ;
i
4. Guniya, S. U., Kharchilava, F. T., AEROSINOPTICHESKIYE USLOVIYA LIV-
NEVYKH OSADKOV V ZAKAVKAZ'YE I RAZRABOTKA METODIKI IKH PROGNOZIROVAN- ;
IYA (Aerosynoptic Conditions for Shower Precipitation in Transcaucasia j
and Development of a Method for its Prediction), 1959. !
i
i
5. Dzhabbarov, M. A., "On the Problem of the Role of Atmospheric Stratif- !
ication (Temperature and Air Humidity) in the Formation of Precipita- !
tion in tite Azerbaydzhan Part of the Southern Slope of the Greater ~
Caucasus," IZV. AN AZERB. SSR, SERIYA NAUK 0 ZF.MLE (News of the Acad-
emy of Sciences Azerbaydzhan SSR, Series on the Earth Sciences), No
6, 1974. .
6. Madatzade, A. A., Shikhlinskiy, E. M., KLIMAT AZERBAYDZHANA (Climate
of Azerbaydzhan), 1968.
i
7. Pogosyan, Kh. P., Gakhramanov, G. A., "Vertical Distribution of Atmo- i
spheric Precipitation in Transcaucasia," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA
(Meteorology and Hydrology), No 7, 1967.
8. Sulakvelidze, G. K., Glushkova, N. I., Fedchenko, L. M., PROGNOZ GRADA,
GROZ I LIVNEVYKH OSADKOV (Prediction of Hail, Thunderstorms and Shower
Precipitation), 1970. i
i-
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UDC 551.(510.7:515.12)(263)
DIS'IRIBUTION OF SOME MINOR Il~URITIES IN THE TROPICAL ZONE OF THE
ATLANTIC OCF~iN
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 49-53
[Article by V. V. Belevich and V. I. Medinets, Odessa Division of the State
Oceanographic Institute, submitted for publication 21 September 1979]
= Abstract: A study was made of the latitudinal dis-
tribution of radon, aerosol, water vapor, aerosol
and direct solar radiation reaching the ocean sur-
face, determined on the basis of data from the 27th
expeditionary voyage of tne scientific-research
weather ship "Musson" in the spring of 1978. It
was established that the principal factors deter-
mining the distribution of the investigated char-
aceeristics of the near-water layer of the atmo-
sphere in the tropical Atlantic were the Northeast
Trades and the ICZ. 7n the Trades zone the attenu-
ation of direct soiar radiation by aerosol can ex-
ceed by a factor of four its attenuation by water
vapor. A close correlation is established between the
aerosol content in the near-water layer of the atmo- .
sphere and aerosol attenuation af direct solar radi-
ation in the region of the-Northeast Trades.
~ [Text] The influence of aerosol on the optical characteristics of the atmo-
sphere, and accordingly on the receipts of solar heat at the surface,in
general has been estabiished, although the quantitative values of these
correlations have not yet been adequately investigated over the ocean due
to the excessively small ~umber of observations. Z'he most complete gener-
alization of the stadies examining the influence of aerosol on the re-
ceipts of solar radiatian at the ocean surface has been made at the Main
Geophysical Observatory using data from the "TROPEKS-72" and GATE expedi-
tj.ous ~2, 3]. A further study of the quantitative dependences of incoming
- solar radiation on aerosol is of unquestionable interest and therefore-~
we will examine some aspects of this problem in the example of the expedi-
tion on the 27th voyage of the scientific-research weather ship "Musson"
~tn the spring of 1978. On this voyage two meridional profiles were run:
59
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along 30-25.5�W (from 35�N to 5�S) and along 23.5�W (from 5�S to 27�N).
~
dla.d:~ nC~/(Cnt�r+uy) 1 _ _ _ ,
12 d1v,d1. .
~a~ �a) a ;0 6~b
~e aa ~
a6 ~ � ~
Ry y 4y
q1 S 4 t s ' . -
2 MIfL/N~ ~,a
- Nlfl/K~
~oo ~o~wpu/M? 3 s.~a~A' B
0~' f00 ~Q ap~/ 3. s�
. B j ~ e 1 ~ eoa
~ ~ J '
r-~
BO y_.,, -j L_~_ y-r~'-%rl' ~ J B00 a~ 6 1 r- j~_; _j--' 60G' ,
r-- ~ ~ r-r''--'aJ
50 I p 60 ~
f0 p~~ jl Il.i~ ,~r y00 ~ Z ~'~.r' ~/'~Z 400'
~ i .
20 ~ ?00 10 ?OP
. JI~ ~ 1~ 03M ~
B g ~'t-*'-- . p
S~Ja~G~. 20 ~o s o,s'~a.c �6 ` 6 s�~~. o s~0 2o'~w. 5
e . , ~o - ~ ~e ~e 8 ~a 20 2t 2~~ 2s ~
. . .
~
: Fig. 1. Distribution of aerosol (1), radon (2) and absorbed radiation.(3),
and attenuation of direct solar radiation by aerosols (4) and water vapor
(5). a) on profile along 30�W (35-5�N) and 25.5�W (5�N-5�S); b) on profile
along 23.5� (5�S-27�N).
KEY:
l. cal/(cm2�min) 5. N -
2 . 8/~3 6 . S
3. curie/m3 7. ICZ .
4. cal/(cm2�day)
It is known from the data in the literature that in the Trades region of
the Atlantic there is an increased aerosol concentration, 'especially sig-
nificant in the latitude zone 10-22�N [2-4, 7], related to the transport
of sand dust from the African continent. It has been established by in-
vestigations of recent years that a considerable quantity of aerosol of `
; continental origin is also observed at the equator [1, 4, 5].
i
~ In order to clarify the influence of aerosol on some atmospheric charac-
teristics on the described voyage on the mentioned meridional profiles
specialiscs made measurements of the weight concentration of aerosol (in-
organic dust) in the near~=water layer (four times a day, exposure time
~ 60 ,
i
; ~
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6 hours) and direct solar radiation and carried out continuous registry
of natural radioactivity, and also total and reflected solar radiation.
The sampling of atmospheric aerosol was with a filter-ventilation appar-
atus using FPP-15-1.5 filter fabric. Using the known weight of the f ilter
after reduction to ash and the vol~e of the investigated air it was pos-
sible to ascertain the weight concentration of aerosol.
The radon content in the near-water air layer was determined using an ap-
- paratus for the continuous registry of natural radioactivity, described in
[6]. Data on its distribution, together with the results of standard
meteorological observations and cloud cover photographs from a satellite,
were used in identifying the boundaries of the ICZ.
Direct solar radiation was measured hourly with a clear sky near the sun
by means of an actinometer and the total and reflected radiation, deter-
mined with a pyranometer and albedometer respectively, were registered on
the tape of an automa.tic electronic potentiometer of the KSP-4 type. The
absorbed radiation was found as the difference between the total and re-
, flected radiation.
The attenuation of direct solar radiation by aerosol, with reduction to
an at~spheric optical mass m= 2, was computed using the formula [4]
- - _ - .
~t4=1o-1-sl~, (i)
where I~ is direct solar radiation less molecular attenuation in an atmo-
sphere with m= 2(assumed equal to 1.6 cal/(cm2�min) [4}), I is the meas-
ured intensity of solar radiation, reduced to m= 2 and the mean distance
between the earth and sun, received on a perpendicular surface (cal/(cm2�
min)), ~ In is the absorption of direct solar radiation by water vapar, re-
lated to the content o~ the latte~r in a vertical column of the atmosphere
by the approximate MacDonald dependence [4, 9], satisfying the accuracy
of the computations made, _ -
01� = O,149 (2 w)��3. ~2)
The w parameter, expressed in g/cm2, was computed using aerological sound-
ing data for 0930 GMT for a vertical column of the atmosphere 10 km [10].
The spatial-temporal distribution of the investigated characteristics is ~
ill ustrated in the figure.
In April 1379 the weather conditions in the tropical Atlantic were deter-
mir.ed by che subtropical highs. There was an intensification or weakening
of the Northeast Trades and a change in the wind regime in the work area
in dependence on the position of the Azores High. On 10 April (24�N) the
ship entered the zone of the Northeast Trades. During the period 17-23 -
April the scientific-research weather ship "Musson" was situated in the
6I
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equatorial pressure trough; on the first and last days of the mentioned
period it intersected the ICZ. During the run along 25.5�W the ICZ was
~ situated between 1.5 and 0.5�N and was well developed. During movement
of the ship northward along 23.5�W the ICZ was blurred and was traced be-
tween 2 and 4�N, that is, it occupied a more northerly position than dur- ~
ing movement toward the south.
When running the profile along 30-25.5�W the content of radon and aerosol
gradually increased from 2.0�10-12 curie/m3 and 12~,~.g/m3 (20�N) to 10�10-12
curie/m3 and 1O5~.i.g/m3 (3�N) respectively. A marked decrease in the con-
centration of radon and aerosol was observed between 2 and 1�N (17 April).
This was probably caused by a change in the direction of transport of air
masses (wind shear at an altitude of 2-3 km [SJ fro~m northeast to south-
east), and also an increased purification of the near water air layer by
the shower precipitation and cloud cover observed in the ICZ, being re-
sponsible for the loss of aerosol in the lower layers of the atmosphere
[llJ.
AG indicated by an analysis of the experimental data (see figure), to the
south of the ICZ the radon and aerosol content changed insignificantly.
The maxim~ in the radon distribution (12�10'12 curie/m3) during the ship's
movement to the north along the profile 23.5�W was observed to the north of
the ICZ (4-5�N) With advance northward its content decreased monotonic-
ally to 2.0�10-12 curie/m3, in general duplicating the distribution observ-
� ed during movement toward the south.
The pattern of distribution of aerosol in the near-water air layer along
the meridian 23.5� differs considerably from that obtained during the
ship's southward movement along the meridians 30-25.5�W.
Tfao maxima. were observed: at 4-6�N (47�g/m3) and at 15�N (60�g/m3) and -
there was a minimum in the region 8-10�N (15 � g/m3).
The corr~lation coefficient between the radon and aerosol concentrations
in the Trades zone is 0.60, which can indicate transport from a single
source (African continent). In our opinion, the different physical prop-
- erties of the investigated substances determine their different behavior
in the atmosphere.
The quantity of vapor in a column of the atmosphere which we computed and
its change in the equatorial zone (10�N-5�S) in general agree with the
data in [10].
The aerosol attenuation of direct solar radiation aIa and its absorption
by water vapor QIn during the movement of the ship to the south alsa
gradually increased and caused a decrease of absorbed radiation; Q In '
increased considerably more slowly than L~ Ia. For example, whereas at
30�N these values were approximately identical, at 5�N the 4 Ia value
more than doubles, whereas L~1n increases by only 17%. Accordingly, in
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the southern part of the Trades zc?ne direct solar radiation was attenuat-
ed primarily by aerosol. The maximum attenuation of direct solar radiati~n
by aerosol (to 1.2 cal/(cm2�min)) was observed in the region 2.5�N
before the ICZ, specifically in the transition zone in which there is a
predominance of descending compensatory movements [8]. i~ maximum aerosol
concentration in the near-water air layer (105 M.g/m3) was also noted in
~ this same so urce. It should be note3 that the prevailing wind direction
at 2-3 km remained northeasterly, that is, the air masses were transported
from the continent. When running the profile along 23.5�W the maximum d Ia
value was already noted near 10�N (0.9 cal/(cm2~min), evidence of a great
variability and dynamicity of processes of aerosol transport from the con-
tinent to the ocean.
The attenuation of direct solar radiation by water vapor L~In when making
ttie run along 23.5�W had a distribution which in general was the same as
, when moving from north to south. Along the mentioned profiles the rela-
tionships between QIa and QIn changed virtually identically with lati-
tude.
- The absorbed radiation along the prof ile with southward movement in the
Trades zone varied in the range 500- 640 cal/(cm2�day), considerably re- ~
~ duced (to 200 cal/ (cm2 �day) ) by thick cloud cover of the well-developed
ICZ.
Along the profile 23.5�W the level of absorbed radiation remained virtually
constant (540-650 ca1/(cm2�day)), not decreasing in the ICZ, whose cloud
- caver was blurred.
An investigation of the correlation between the aerosol distributions in
the near-water air layer and aerosol attenuaLion of so'ar rad iatton indi-
cated that in the Trades zone ~he correlation coefficient between them is
0.91, whereas in the TCZ a^d to the south there was no significant correl-
ati-:3n (correlation coefficients 0.11 and 0.0$ respectively) . This is evi-
der.~e that observations of the aerosol content in the n~ar-water air lay-
er,of the Trades zone give information on the aerosol content in the en-
tire thickness of the atmosphere if it is assumed that the Q In value
is proportional to the total aerosol content in a vertical column of the
atmosphere.
The rele of aerosol attenuation of solar radiation in the Trades zone :aill
be illustrated in the following example: 25 April (12�N) the Q In value `
was 0.14 Ip and pIa = 0.58 I~. The direct solar radiation reaching the
ocean surface was only 28% of. Ip.
In co~ic7.~~5~_on we note the following.
The principal factors governing the distribution of the investigated char-
acteristics o~E the near-water la;er of the atmosphere in the tropical At-
lantic were the Nor.theast Trades and the ICZ.
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~
The direct solar radiation in the zone 5-20�N is primarily dependent on
the atmospheric aerosol concentration.
The close correlation between the aerosol content in the near-water air
layer and aerosol attenuation in the Tradea zone is evidence that the
distribution of aer~sol content in the near-water layer characterizes its
content in the entire thickness of the atmosphere.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
- 1. Kapustin, V. N., Pirogov, S. M., "Aerosol in the Near-Water Layer of
the Equatorial Zone of the Atlantic Ocean," TROPEKS-74 (Tropeks-74),
- Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
2. Kondrat'yev, K. Ya., KLIMAT I AEROZOL' (Climate and Aerosol), TRUDY ~C'.(1
' (Transactions of the Main Geophysical Observatory), No 381, 1976. _
3. Kondrat'yev, K. Ya., et al., "Aerosol in the GATE Region and its Radi-
ation Pruperties," TRUDY GGO, No 381, 1976.
4. Laktionov, A. G., Gudimenko, A. V., Kopchen~v, V. M., Semko, N. N.,
"Some Characteristics of Aerosol in the Tropical Zone of the Atlantic
Ocean," TROPEKS-72 (Tropeks-72), Gidrometeoizdat, 1974.
5. Laktionov, A. G., et al., "Correlation of Optical and Aerosol Charac-
teristi~s of the Atmosphere in the Eastern Equatorial Atlantic,"
TROPEKS-74, Vol 1, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
6. Medinets, V. I., Tarnopol`skiy, L. G., "Determination of the Boundar-
ies of the ICZ Using the Radon Concentration," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDRO-
LOGIYA (MeteoroZogy and Hydrology), No 2, 1978. ~
- 7. Orlov, A. P., et al., "Atmospheric Radiation in the Spectral Region
~-14~.m in the Equatorial Zone of the Atlantic Ocean," TROPEKS-74,
Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
8. Petrosyants, M. A., Slaby, S., Snitkovskiy, A. I., Fal'kovich, A. I.,
"Air Circulation in the Tropical Tropopause Along the Meridian 23�30'
W," TROPEKS-74, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
9. Sivkov, S. I., METODY RASCHETA KHARAKTERISTIK SOLNECHNOY RADIATSII
(Methods for Computing the Characteristics of Solar Radiation), Len-
ingrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1968.
10. Snopkov, V. G., "Total Atmospheric Moisture Content in the Tropical
Zone of the Atlantic Ocean Using Aerological Sounding Data from the
13th Voyage of the SRS 'Akademik Kurchatov'," TROPEKS-72, Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1974.
11. Hogan, A. W., "Aerosols of the Trade Wind Region," J. APPL. METEORdL.,
Vol 15, No 6, 1976.
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UDC 551.553.21(5-012)
PROPAGATION OF A MONSOON OVER EAST ASIA AND THE DEGREE OF ITS STABILITY
Mosco~J METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No S, May 80 pp 54-59
[rlrticle by Candidate of Geographical Sciences N. I. Lisogurskiy and A. Z.
Petrichev, Far Eastern Scientific Research Hydrometeorological Institute,
submitted for publication 1 October 1979]
Abstract: On the basis of observational data
from 393 stations, using the S. P. Khromov meth-
od, the authors constructed a map of the propa-
gation of monsoons in East Asia. The degree of
~ their stability is demonstrated. It was found
that the monsoon region of East Asia breaks
down into zonal parts and the position of the
monsoon "divides" corresponds to the position
of the climatological fronts. It is shown that
the stability of middle-latitude monsoons is
- no less than the stability of subtropical mon-
soons.
[Text] The enormous influence which monsoons exert on the formation of cli-
mate over extensive regions of the earth is well known. It is therefore
- easy to understand the interest which scientists have in this form of at-
mospheric circulation. A great number of investigations has been devoted -
to the subject of monsoons, but until now there have been different def-
_ initions of the term "monsoon" itself and there is no unanimity on matters
relating to the reasons for genesis and development o.f the regions of prop-
agation of ~onsoons over the earth.
At the present time the definition of a monsoon proposed by S. P. Khromov
in 1950 and made more precise by him in 1956 [8, 9] is the most recognized
by meteorologists. According to this definition, a monsoon is "such a re-
= gime of general cir.culation of the atmosphere in a large geographical
_ regior: j.n y~hich winds of one direction (quadrant, octant) in each place
in this region sharply predominate over the others and the prevailing
direction of the wind changes to the opposite or nearly opposite direc-
tion from winter to summer and from summer to winter." Opposite directions
are those between which the angle i.s 120� or more and sharply prevailing
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directions are those whose frequency of recurrence is 40% or more. A1-
though such a definition has a purely meteorological character and gives�
no idea concerning the genesis of monsoons it makes it possible to dis-
tinguish monsoonal flows from the total number of atmospheric phenomena
and give them quantitative characteristics.
Using these criteria, S. P. Khromov, on the map which he constructed, show-
ed the regions of the earth in which monsoons occur, as well as regions
with a"monsoon tendency" (mean frequency of recurrence of the prevailing
direction less than 40%). Some of this map, the part for East Asia, is
reproduced as Fig. l. On the basis of his investigations S. P. Khromov
drew the conclusion that monsoonal regions are grouped into zones drawn out
in a latitudinal direction, which is caused by seasonal movements and evo-
lution of atmospheric centers of action. He differentiated the following
monsoonal zones: tropical between 20� north and south latitude, subtrop-
ical between 30 and 40� latitude in both hemispheres, zone of monsoons
in the temperate latitudes in the northern hemisphere between 50-60�
latitude, and also the polar zone near the 70th parallel in the northern
hemisphere.
The zonal distribution of monsoonal regions on the S. P. Khromov map is dis- '
rupted only in East Asia, where this zone is a continuous meridional band
of monsoons. S. P. Khromov explained the appearance of this azonal region
as a result of the intensification and merging of three monsoonal zones.
_ ' ~ . ~
� i
~ ~
~ z
_ ~a ~ ~
. . ~
~
~
;
120 ~sp
Fig. 1. Geographical propagation of monsoons according to S. P. Khromov.
Regions with a monsoonal angle from 120 to 180� are shaded. The mean fre-
quency of recurrence of prevailing wind directions in January and July:
1) less than 40%; 2) 40-60%; 3) more than 60%.
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However, it should be noted that in constructing the mentioned map the
prevailing wind directions were determined only at the points of inter-
section and at the centers af 10� aquares. In order for the map to attain
a greater accuracy S. P Khromov proposed the uae of original observational
data in the network of stations.
In the years which followed a number of scientists made attempts at more
precise determination of the boundaries of monsoonal circulation over in-
- dividual regions of the earth. We will mention the most important of them.
In 1960 the boundaries of monsoonal circulation over China were defined by
Chzhan Tszyachen using the Schick index [lOJ. He demonstrated that the
center of monsoonal activity is not situated over northeastern China, but
near its southeastern shores.
On the basis of use of data on the prevailing wind direction for each 5�
grid sc~uare, found by computing wind roses, a refined map of the propaga-
tion of monsoons over the Pacific Ocean was compiled and published in [7].
This map gives a more detailed pattern of distribution of monsoonal phen-
omena over the ocean, being somewhat different than that obtained by S. P.
~Chromov .
In the early 1970's new boundaries of monsoons were proposed by K. Ramedzh
in his monograph METEOROLOGIYA MUSSONOV (Meteorology of Mansoons) [5]. He
regards as monsoonal only those regions of those defined by S. P. Khromov
in which the mean velocity of the resultant wind in January or July ex-
ceeds 3 m/sec and in each 5� square in any 2-year period in any month
there is less than one replacement of a cyclone by an anticyclone or vice
versa. As a result, only the region bounded by 35�N-25�S arid 30�W-170�E
was included in the monsoonal region, that is, in the author's opinion [5J
a monsoon is a purely tropical phenomenon.
After eval.uating the results of regionalization of monsoons in East Asia
it is easy to conclude that no unanimity has been achieved on these
matters.
We feel that at the present time, when adequate archival material has been
accumulated, it has become possible to return again to this monsoon problem,
employing the criterion given by S. P, Khromov as tlie basis for identifying
a monsoon. ~
In the investigation we used wind data published in the SPRAVOCHNIK PO
KI.IMATU SSSR [6] and the KLIMATICHESKIY SPRAVOCHNIK ZARUBEZHNOY AZII [2]
(Handbook of USSR Climate; Climatic Handbook of Foreign Asia). The terri-
tor;t a~ E:st Asia fr.om the shores of the Arctic Ocean to the Indochinese
Peninsula and from 100�E to 180�E was considered. In this territory data
on the mean monthly velocity and frequency of recurrence of the wind were
obtained for 957 stations. We selected those stations at which the mean
wind velocity in January or .Tuly exceeded 3 m/sec, that is, at least in
b7
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one month of these two. Adhering to the proposal by Ramedzh [5], this
condition was selected because in regions with weak winds monsoonal
transport was poorly expressed. There were 393 stations satisfying this
condition.
Using the observational data for the selected stations we computed the
prevailing wind direction and its frequency of recurrence for January
and July by the method proposed by Ye. S. Rubinshteyn [1]. Days with _
calms were taken into account when computing the frequency of recurrence
of the prevailing wind direction. This is necessary because when there
are a large number of such days the frequency of recurrence of the pre-
vailing direction, computed without taking calms into account, becomes
nonindicative. Then we computed the angle between the bisectors of the
predaminant squares and its values were plotted on the map, after which
- isogonic lines were drawn each 30�. According to the definition given by
_ S. P. Khromov, regions are considered monsoonal when the angle between the
predominating wind direction changed by 120� or more from January to July.
Next, for determining stability of the monsoonal regime we computed the
S. P. Khromov index, representing the half-sum of the frequencies of re-
currence of the prevailing wind directions for January and July. These
data served as a basis for compiling a refined map of monsoonal regions
over East Asia (Fig. 2), on which we showed the boundaries of propagation . ~
of monsoons and the degree of their stability. Taking into account the
circumstance that the wind observations used in refining the S. P. Khromov
map over the Pacific Ocean [7] were taken for approximately the same per-
iod as for the construction of our map, in Fig. 2 we deemed it possible
to combine the results of the refinements obtained both in our studies and
in [7] .
A comparison of the map constructed in this way with the S. P. Khromov map
shows that in general they coincide. However, Figure 2 reveals a number of
new and significant details appearing due to the use of material for a
considerably greater number of points. The $reatest difference is that the
azonally drawn-out band of monsoons in East Asia is broken down into indi-
vidual zonal regions, much as is observed over other regions of the earth.
This is not surprising because different air masses participate in tiie
formation of monsoonal flows over this region, as already indicated by
S. P. Khromov.
There are regions between the individual regions of active monsoonal activ-
ity where the S. P. Khromov index acquires minimum values or where a mon-
soonal angle is absent. As proposed by V. V. Shuleykin [11], these regions
will be called "monsoon divides." To be sure, the appearance of monsoon
divides is not related to the absence of monsoons in these regions. Their
- appearance is attributable to the fact that they are situated at the line
of contact of monsoons caused by different circulatory processes. The al-
ternate penetration of monsoonal flows into the monsoon divide region has
the result that no clearly expressed prevailing wind direction is observed
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nere. The regions of the monsoon dj.vices have a relativel~ small width and
could be discovered only in a detailed investigation with the use of a
great number of observations.
~ \ -
/
6 ~ .
1 0
. . ~
~ � ' ~ / ~O
/ \ \ \ .
~ ~ .
~ ~ 0
eo ~ ` .
~ -
~
120 up '
Fig. 2. Refined distribution of monsc,onal regions over East Asia. For sym-
balization see Fig. 1.
The rollowing principal monsoonal reKpions can be distinguished on the map
(Fig. 2). Over the southern part of the Asian r_ontinent there is a region
uf tropical monsoons. This region is separated in the north from the sub-
tropical monsoons by a monsoon divide whose axis passes approximately ~
along 20�N. The position of this monsoon divide coi.ncides with the July
position of the ICZ [3, 4]. This circumstance once again confirms the pre-
vailing opinion that equatorial air can penetrate to the southeastern -
coast of China. In the tr,opical monsoon region there is a seasonal change
of the winter easterly Trade f~ows to summer westerly winds.
As might be expected, the most stable monsoon is observed in this region.
Its mean freqiiency of recurrence at: individual coastal stations exceeds
80%. In the central regions of the lndochinese Peninsula, in which calms
frequently pr.evail, the stability o� monsoons is reduced to 50-60y.
Then, to the nortti bet~oeen 25-43�N, there is a region of subtropical mon-
soons taking in China, Japan, Korea, the south of Primor'ye and propagating
into the depth of the continent to 105�E. In this region there is a season-
al change ot the northerly winds associat~d with the centers of the Siber-
i.an anticyclone penetratiiig lnto China jn the winter to the summer south-
aasterly flows arising as a result of interaction between the Asiatic Low
and the spur of the subtropical Norl-.h Pacific anticyclane extending to the `
.:�l>>res of Asia. Th~~s, ~.i~e pclar continental air of the winter monsoon is
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replaced here by marine tropical air only in summer. This monsoonal region
fits into the zone fo rmed between the winter and summer positions of the
polar front.
The stability of subtropical monsoons is relatively great and at coastal
stations can attain 70%. With advance into the depth of the continent
their stability decreases to 40-60%, and to the west of 110�E the mean
frequency of recurrence becomes less than 40~. It is characteristic that
the mean frequency of recurrence of prevailing wind directions over north-
ern Korea and the southern part of Primor'ye exceeds 60%. The results ob- -
tained f.or this region differ considerably from the conclusions drawn by
S. P. Khromov, who contended that only a monsoonal tendency should be ob-
~erved there.
Temperate-latitude mr~nsoons are very clearly expressed on the refined map;
they take in the region from 45 to 65�N. During winter a monsoonal flow
caused by interaction between the Siberian anticyclone and the Aleutian
Low prevails over the mentioned region. In summer, however, monsoonal flows
arise as a result of interaction between regions of reduced pressure fnrm-
ing over the continent and anticyclones over the marginal seas and the
northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean. For example, the monsoonal flows in
the region of the Sea of Japan and the Sea of Okhotsk arise during the life-
time of the summer Far Eastern Low and the predominance of regions of in-
creased pressure over these seas. The monsoonal region in the northern part
of Kamchatka and the southern part of Chukotka is formed with the formation
of the summer anticyclonea of the Bering;Sea and the cyclones of the Arctic `
front over Chukotka. '
The anticyclone situated over the Sea of Okhotsk is the most powerful and
stah?e of all those arising in summer in the marginal seas of East Asia.
The most active region of temperate-latitude monsoons is also situated
here. Their stability at the center of this region exceeds 60%. With ad-
vance into the depth of the continent it decreases to 40%. Among the mon-
soons of the temperat e latitudes the monsoon from the Sea of Okhotsk pene-
_ trates the greatest d istance onto the continent and attains 120�E. Thus,
the monsoons observed in the Sea of Okhotsk region axe equal in stability
to subtropical monsoons, but are propagated over a lesser area. The stab-
ility of Bering Sea monsoons is Iess than over the remaining regions of
the temperate latitud es and is 40-60y. It exceeds 60% only in individual
small regions. The Bering Sea monsoon penetrates 400-600 km onto the con-
tinent, that is, much less than the Sea of Okhotsk monsoon.
The monsoon divide be tween the temperate-latitude monsoons and the polar ,
monsoon passes along 65�N. The polar monsoon is observed in a narrow zone
along 70�N, penetrating 200-300 km onto the continent. However, along the
valley of the Lena River it is propagated to its upper course. In this same _
region there is maximum stability of the polar monsoon 40-60%. In the
remaining regions for the most part it is only a monsoonal tendency which
is observed.
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_ In summarizing what has been said above, the following conclusions can be
drawn:
l. The stability of monsoonal activity in the temperate latitudes of East
Asia is approximately the same as in the subtropical latitudes.
2. The monsoonal regioa of East Asia is divided by three monsoon divid es
into zonal parts agreeing with existing concepts concerning the zonal
gropagation of monsoons over the earth.
3. The position of monsoon divides agrees well with the position of the
climatic fronts. -
~ BIBLIOGRAPHY ~
1. Alisov, B. P., Drozdov, 0. A.., Rubinshteyu, Ye. S., KURS KLIMATOLOGII
(Course in Climatology), Parts I, II, Len3ngrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1952.
2. KLIMATICHESKIY SPRAVOCHNIK ZARUBEZHNOY AZII (Climatic Handbook of F~r- -
eign Asia), edited by A. N. Lebedev and N. D. Ronanev, Leningrad,
Gidrometeoizdat, 1974.
3. Kruzhkova, T. S,, "Intertropical Convergence Zone and the Principal
Z'rajectories of Cyclones in the Tropical Zone," TRUllY GIDROMETTSENTRA
SSSR (Transactions of the USSR Hydrometeorological Csnter), No 87,
1971.
4. Minina, L. S., PRAKTIKA NEFANALIZA (Nephanalysis Experience), Lenin-
~ grad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1970.
5. Ramedzh, K., METEOROLOGIYA MUSSONOV (Meteoralogy of Monsoons), Len in-
grad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1976.
6. SPRAVOCHNIK PO KLIMATU SSSR (Handbook of USSR Climate), Part III, VETER
(Wind), Nos 22-27, 33, 34, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1967-1968.
7. TIKHIY OKEAN. METEOROLOGICHESKIYE USLOVIYA NAll TIKHOM OKEANOM (Pac ific
Ocean. Meteorological Conditions Over the Pacific Ocean), edited by
V. S. Samoylenko, Moscow, Nauka, 1966.
8. Khromov, S. P., "A Monsoan as a Geographical Reality," IZV. VGO (News
of the All-Union Geographical Society), Vol 82, 1950.
9. Khromov, S. P., MUSSONY V OBSHCHEY TSIRKULYATSII ATMOSFERY (Monsoons
in Genera:t Circulation of the Atniosphere), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1956.
7].
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I
I_
10. Chzhan Tszyachen, "Some Points of View Concerning the Nature of Chin-
ese Monsoons," TRUDY GGO (Transactions of the Main Geophysical Ob- ~
~
servatory), No 90, 1960.
11. Shuleykin, V. V., FIZIKA MORYA (Physics of the Sea), Moscow, Nauka,
1968. .
~
~
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UDC 551.463.6(263)
VARIABILITY OF THE TF~MPERATURE FIELD IN THE EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 60-64
[Areicle by Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences V. V. Yefimov,
Marine Aydrophysical Institute, submitted for publication 10 September
1979]
Abstract: The article gives the results of
statistical processing of temperature data
for different depths in the Equatorial At-
- lantic during the period 1961-1977. The char-
acteristics of the annual variation of tem-
perature, heat content in the upper active
layer of the ocean and radiation heat flux
are evaluated. A conclusion is drawn that
advective heat transfer plays the predom- _
inant role in generating the annual tearmonic.
The distribution functions are computed for
the difference temperature in dependence on
depth. A comparison of the experimental dis- ~
tribution functions and tY~e normal law is
given.
[TextJ Recently interest has increased in investigations of interaction
between tha atmosnhere and ocean in the tropical and equatorial regions
of the oceans. Such ma3or experiments as TROPEKS-74 and the First Global
_ Experiment of 1979 were carried out. It is assumed that the equatorial
regions of the world ocean play a decisive role in the forming of weath- .
er anomalies on the continents in a subsequent period [1].
At an earlier time extensive investigafiions of dynamic and thermal pro-
cesses were carried out in the central part of the Atlantic Ocean, com-
bin~d ~n ~?zc: general EKVALANT program. Accorciingly, many important char-
acteristics of the averaged temperature field of the Tropical Atlantic
are quite well known [2]. However, quantitative evaluations of the tem-
poral variability of the temperature field of this region of the ocean
are still in need of refinement and further study. This applies, in par-
ti>>~1:~c, to long-term variations of parameters in the upper active layer
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on seasonal and year-to-year scales.
Be1ow we wi12 examine the results of statistical processing of all the
materials from expeditionary investigations by scientific research ves-
sels of the Marine Hydrophysical Institute Ukrainian Academy of Sciences,
the "Mikhail Lomonosov" and the "Akademik Vernadskiy," carried out in
the equatorial region of the Atlantic Ocean, supplemented by some data
of expeditionary vessels of the Hydrometeorological Service. The primary
materials are the results of stand3rd hydrological soundings of tempera- ~
ture at individual points in the ocean. The processing was done using about
800 individual soundings at hydrological stations in the equatorial region
of the ocean lying in the rectangle 5�N-S�S, Z8-40�W., relatfng to the per-
iod 1961-1977. To be sure, the measurement data were not distributed uni-
formly through this period. A great many measurementa were made during
1961-1964, 1973-1975 and 1977; there are considerably fewer data between
these years.
In the analysis we used temperature data for standard horizons in the upper
layer to a depth of 500 m. As a result we computed the mean temperatures
and their dispersions, the distribution functions (histograms), and also
the amplitudes An and phases ~ n of the harmonic co~ponents. An and ~n
were computed by the ordinary mean square fittin~ method. We found such
amplitudes and phases of the harmonic component T~= An sin nti +(P n)
that the standard deviation from the measured Ti values was minimum. Thus,
we minimized the function - - -
N ~ �
s ~An~ ~n) _ ~ ~Ti - Ti)=.
~ r~ ~
where N is the volimme of temperature data used, ~ n is frequency, ti is
time.
The table gives the computation rESUlts. It gives the mean temperature val-
. ues T at different depths, the dispersiQns of temperature fluctuations o"2,
the amplitude A and the phase So of the harmonic component of the annual
period, and also the residual temperature dispersion o'2 (temperature dis-
persion less the annual periodic component: Q~~ �min~N). In addition,
we computed the heat reserve Q in'the aurface layer 0-150 and 0-500 m
: - _
. Q = ~?Pb~ T(~) dz~
and computed these same statistical character istics for these reserves.
The left half of the table describes the ent ire mass of data used (t5� in ~
latitude and 18-40�W); the right half of the table gives sample data re-
lating to a narrower latitude region near the equator: 3�N-3�S.
First we draw attention to the following peculiarity of the results: in ~
the upper quasihomogeneous layer of the ocean the amplitude and phase
of the annual temperature component vary relatively little. For example,
for the entire mass of data the amplitude attenuates from 0.89 to 0.73�C
and the phase varies from 0.12 to 0.45 rad in the layer from the surface
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to 30 m. For example, we note that ~=-?7 /6 denotes a phzse shift be-
tween the annual variation of temperature and the beginning of the year
of one month (that is, the temperature maximum falls at the e~d of April);
in the case 0 the maximwn falls at the end of March, etc. Therefore,
0.12 corresponds to a maaimum of the annual temperature variation
falling in the second half of March.
z at I i I Q' A ~p f T Q~ Q~
I I I I I r ~ A
5� c. cu. - 5� ro. w.; 18--40' a. A. 3 -
3' c. ~u. - 3� a. m.; 18-40� s. A.
~ 27.12 1,1:, 0,71 0,8~ 0,1'? 27,14 1,0 0,64 0,92 0,21
10 27,03 1,13 0,73 0,84 U,12 27,11 1,04 0,69 0,9 0,19
2U 27.0 1,1:5 0,7~J 0,78 U,18 27,0 1,05 0,74 0,86 0,24
30 26,8 1;19 1,01 (T,73 0,~5 26,3 1,07 0,8,5 0,76 0.52
50 25.7 3,44 3,0 !,0 I,FiS 25.8 3,3 2,5 1,18 ~,71
75 22,1 12,0 9,4 ;;,19 2,26 22,7 9.7 5,6 2,5 2,37
100 18,~ l2,S 10,6 1,24 2,47 IR,O 12,0 S,3 2,5 2,87 `
150 14,2 'l,3 2,4 4,4 2.47 14,1 i,03 ],94 0,45 3,14
200 12,8 O,tiS 0,64 0,13 2,75 12,8 0,38 0,36 U,23 0,28
300 ]0,7 0,66 0,64 0,2 2,76 l0,3 0,59 0,53 0,3 2.97
5~ 7,0 0,13 0.23 0,09 1.67 6,9 0,2 U,2 0,06 2,37
Q(0---150) 325 710 610 t4.2 `1,07
Q(0-500) fi87 1 I 2~ 9,i0 I i,1 2, 27
R 46! ]352 1785 31 2,26 .
4 Pas;~epxorrN: Q- s(rca~/c,+r~) � 10''; R- s xa.i/~~x�'CyT~ ~ 7'. A--. s�C; s pad.
KEY:
1. N
2. S
3. W
4. Dimens ionalities: Q-- in (cal/cm2)�10-3; R-- in cal/(cm2~day);
T, A-- in �C; in rad.
The seasonal temperature changes are traced to a depth of 100-I50 m. Deeper
the A and ~ evaluations become unstable. This can be seen from the fact
that the residual dispersion o' 2 already differs little from the initial
U 2. What has been said is illustrated in Fig. 1, wnich shows changes in
amplitude, dispersioa and phase of temperature fluctuations with ~epth. It
can be seen that there are small changes in all the characteristics in the
upper quasihomogeneous layer and then a local increase in amplitude of the
annual temperature variation in the upper thermoclinE. The phase regularly _
increases with depth so that, for example, at the 100-m depth the tempera-
ture maximum already occurs in time at the beginning of November.
Wha t is t~ t�,~chaniGm r~f t?~e seasona3 temperature change in the equatorial
region of the ocean? As is well known, there are two possible reasons for
such variations. These are seasonal changes in the heat balance comgonents
and advective heat transfer. Although at the equator the annual harmonic -
of variations of eaternal solar radiation is virtually absent, the sea-
soo.,.=i_ ~ c:,: i3~io..s oF the heat balance components are not equal to zero .
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0 A/2 ~ ~
~ f0 2.OA'G
0 1p+ p-~p _"j�~
~
~
~
T
SO
A
9
900
150 x
,l
100
J00
SD x
IM
Fig. 1. Distribution of inean temperature T, amplitude A and phase c~ of an-
nual harmonic of temperature variations.
At the present time little is known about thair amplitude near the equator
in the Atlantic Ocean [3]. As an agproximate evaluation we used the re-
sults of ineasurements of total solar radiation R made on the scientific-
research ships "Mikhail Lomonosov" and "Akademik Vernadskiy." T'he avail-
able data were processed by the same method and the results for the lati- _
tude zone f5� are given in the table. The amplitude of the annual har- ~
_ monic of total radiation was 31 cal/(cm2�daq), phase 2.26 rad. It is
natural that the amplitude of the annual harmonic of the total heat bal-
ance at the ocean surface does not exceed this value. It is probably ~
about 1/3 of it, that is, approximately the same fraction as the mean ~
value of the total heat balance relative to the radiation balance [4].
It is easy to show that the mentioned variations of the total heat balance
at the ocean surface cannot ensure the variations of heat content in the
upper active layer of the ocean cited in the table. In actuality, In ac- ,
tuality, without taking advective heat transfer into account, the steady !
seasonal variations of the temperature field are rElated to variations ;
of the heat flow at its surface (the heat flow at the lower boundary of ~
the active layer is neglected) by the simple expression '
' d~ = B~ SiT1 .2~-5 t, ' ,
where BO is the amplitude of the annual harmonic of the total heat flow ~ _
at the surface, Q is the heat content of the active layer.
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Then
'Bo = ~ Q�~
where Q~ is the amplitude of the annual harmonic of heat coiltent variation. _
~ Assuming the amplitude of heat content variations in the upper 150-m lay-
er, as given in the table, to be 14.2�103 cal/cm2, we obtain B~ r 244 cal/
_ (cm2�day). This is considerably greater than that whi~h was estimated
earlier for seasonal variarions of the heat flow a*_ the surface. Thus,
~ the annua.l temperature variations in the upper layer of the ocean greatly
exceed the values which can be exPected solely as a result of changes in
tne heat flow through the ocean surface.
Advective heat transfer is evidently the main reason for the seasonal tem- .
- perature changes in the equatorial regiun of the Atlantic Ocean. This re-
gion is a dynamically active part of the ocean with quite intensive cur-
rents. Among these it is possible to mention the Lumonosov subsurface cur-
- rent, having a great extent, and the surface transf~r in a predominately
northwesterly direc tion, the South Trades Current. The latter also prob-
ably makes the maia contribution to the seasonal variation of te~perature
near the equator. .T.his is indicated by the phases of the annual tempera- -
ture wave, close to the phase of the seasonal variation of surface temper-
ature in the southern hemisphere.
The advective nature of the seasonal r_emperature variations near the equa-
tor distinguishes this reglon from other regions of the ocean. It is
known that in the overwhe].ming part of the ocean the seasonal tempera-
tur.e changes in the upper active layer are caused by lacal variations of
the heat balance components at the surface.
Now we will examine the variability of residual temperature of the upper
' layer of t~e ocean T' = T- T, that is, the temperature less its seasonal
variation T. In the variations of residual temperature T' it is possible
to discriminate the year-to-year variability and intermediate-scale vari-
_ ations (a periad of months). Among these the year-to-year variability is
the ~ost importanr_ for the purposes of predicting weather anomalies. How-
~ver, available data were inadequate and the evaluations of long-term
variabilit,~ are not reliabl.e. Accordingly, *_he specCral composition of
temperature variations in this region of tY~e ocean could not be studied.
Nevertheless, useful informatj.on can be obtained from an analysis of the ~
distribution functions. P(T') Yiistograms were computed for all the tem-
Nerature data. These characterize temperature variability. Figure 2
shows P(^') functions for the residual temperature at different horizons.
We note that the histog.rams of initiai temperature data P(T) have a two-
peak appear.ance, as a result of preser:ce of the harmonic component of
sPasonal var_~ation, and therefore they are not cited. The P(T') d3strib-
ur_ion ma~es pc~ssible a direct evalua~-ion of, the probability of deviation
" 77
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of temperature values at different horizons from the mean square values
given in the table (taking into account the regular seasonal variation).
P P
Q4 . . !
.
-04
_ % +3 P .
42 � .
f � ~ Q2 ~ -
, � . !.4 Y
x � ~o ~~5 ~ t �7
� Y ~ s o x s o. o~ v,
o: ' ~o " ~ u w x3
xJ 7' `~~~o ` "x, CN~"
-1 0~ ~ -8 .-6 -4 0 2 4 6 8 �1 D 1 T�C
Fig. 2. Distribution function for residual temperature p(T') for different
depths. 1) 0 m; 2) 10 m; 3) 30 m; 4) 50 m; 5) 75 m; 6) 100 m; 7) 200 m;
8) 300 m; 9) 500 m.
The P(T') experimental functions were broken down into three groups relat-
ing to the region of the upper quasihomogeneous layer, the upper part of
the thermocline (region of the maximum temperature gradient) and the depths ,
200-500 m. For these groups thP P(T') values behave in the same way. The
broadest P(T') distribution is characteristic for the depths of the max-
imum temperature gradient. Here the standard deviations of residual tem- ;
peratures T' attain 2-3�C. The"P(T') scatter decreases above and below.
Figure 2, as a comparison, gives the theoretical distribution functions
corresponding to a normal law with a dispersion equal to the mean disper- ;
sion of fluctuations T' in this layer, taken from the table. It can be
seen that the experimental distribution functions differ insignificantly
from the normal values. The difference from the normal law is manifested -
primarily for small depths. An asymmetry of the P(T') distribution is
characteristic here: negati.ve T' values are encountered with a greater
probability than positive values. ~
Such a peculiarity of the P(T`) behavior is naturally related to an es- ;
sentially nonlinear mechanism of formation of heat flows through the '
ocean surface. With an increase in surface temperature there is a con-
siderable increase in ocean heat transfer by means of evaporation and
therefore a"saturation effect" arises. The temperature of the ocean sur-
face in the equatorial region rarely increases above 28�C. We note that
an essentially asymmetrir_ form of the distribution function is character-
istic for all flows through the ocean surface: flows of heat, moisture
and momentum [5].
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BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Marchuk, G. I., Skiba, Yu. N., "Numerical Computation of Conjugate
Problem for a Model of Therma~ Interaction Between the Atmosphere
and Ocean and the Continents,~' IZV. AN SSSR, FIZIKA ATMOSFERY I
OKEANA (News of the USSR Academy of Sciences, Physics of the Atmo-
sphere and Ocean), Vol 12, No 5, 1976.
2. Boguslavskiy, S. G., TEMPERATURNOYE POLE TROPICHESKOY A.TLANTIKI (Tem-
perature Field of the Tropical Atlantic), Kiev, Naukova Dumka, 1977.
3. Timofeyev, N. A., ATLAS TEPLOVOGO BALANSA OREANOV (Atlas of the Heat
Balance of the Oceans), Sevastopol', MGI AN UkrSSR, 1970.
4. Stepanov, V. N., MIROVOY OKEAN (World Ocean), Moscow, Znaniye, 1974.
S. Elsberry, R. L., Norman, T. C., "Oceanic Thermal Besponse to Strong
Atmospheric Forcing. Characteristics of Forcing Events," J. PHYS.
_ OCEANOGR., Vol 8, No 2, 1978. ~
~
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UDC 551.(326.7:507.362.2)
METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE DENSITY OF PACKING OF DRIFTING ICE USING
SATELLITE DATA
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May.80 pp 65-68
[Article by P. A. Nikitin and N. D. Lyubovnyy, State Scientific Research
Center for the Study of Natural Resources, submitted for publication
28 August 1979]
_ Abstract: The authors have formulated and
applied an algorithm for determining the
density of packing of drifting ice using
measurement data from a scanning microwave
radiomet~er. The algorithm makes possible
- the processing of a mass of satellite data
in an interactive regim~ and the represent-
ation of a map of the spatial distribution
of sea ice in visualized form. At the same
~ time, using the statistical characteristics
of a signal from test sectors it is possible
to evaluate the reliability of the output data.
[Text] Due to the greater volumes of sea transport and lengthening of the
navigation season there is need for more detailed regular information on
driftiMg sea ice. One of the new and promising methods for obt~ining such
information is microwave sensing from artificial earth satellites. This
method has a significant advantage the possibility of making measure-
ments through the cloud cover and at nighttime, which is especially im-
portant for the polar regions.
For the first time satellite microwave data on the density of packing of
drifting ice were obtained when processing measurements �rom the artif-
icial earth satellite "Cosmos-243" in 1968 [1]. Then similar studies were
made in the United States using data from a scanning radiometer carried
aboard the artificial earth satellite "Nimbus-5" [5].
A determination of the density of packing is possible due to the great dif- ~
ference between the measured radiobrightness temperatures of ice and water. .
_ The radiometer signal strength is proportional to the ratio of the areas ~
occupied by ice and water in the field of view of the radiometer antenna ~
~l.j :
so `
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Ta = TA S-{- T9 (1 S).
(1)
[ 51 = br; ?1 = ice; B= water ]
Here Tbr is the measured radiobrightness temperature; S is the density of
packing (relative area) of the ice cover, Tice and 'i'~ater are the radio-
brightness temperatures of ice and water respectivelyr
_ It follows from the cited simple relationship that the accuracy in determin-
ing the quantity of drifting ice will be dependent on the error in a priori
stipulation of Tice and TWater and the accuracy of ineasurements, inclu~ing
scaling of the rad~iometerbsignal into absolute values of the radiobrightness
temperature. The method for the latter has not yet been adequately perfected
and involves calibration against test sectors of the earth`s surface or
"against space," which can lead to considerable errors. The radiobrightness
temperature of the water can be computed with a high accuracy. In this case
it can be assumed that
Tbr � qTp~ (2)
where T~ is the thermodynamic temperature of the emitting medium, q is the
emitting power (emissivity), dependent on the electrophysical character-
istics of the medium, the frequency of the radiation and the sighting angle.
The emission characteristics of sea water have been studied quite well [4]
and its thermodynamic temperature in the zone near the ice edge is 273f1.5
K(2). In this direction sea ice has been studied far more poorly. It is a
complex heterogeneous medium whose electric properties are dependent on the
age, thermal regime, time and place of formation. The model computations
- made by the authors indicated that the changes in Tbce can exceed 50 K.
There are no reliable experimental data on the radio~rightness characteris-
tics of sea ice. AccordingYy, at the present time there is no possibility
for making direct calculations of the density of packing or making a suf-
ficiently precise determination of its possible accuracy. It is true that
source [5] gives the figure 6% (that is, less than 1"continuity" scale
unit), but it was obtained for a fixed emissivity, which obviously does
not correspond to reality.
In addition, the processing of experimental radiometer-polarimeter data
from the instrumentation carried on the artificial earth satellite "Meteor-
18" and theoretical computations of the radiobrightness characteristics of
the arctic atmosphere indicate that at wavelengths less than 2 cm it is
impossible to n~glect the influence of the atmosphere, which attains maxi-
mum values specifically during the summer navigation period [3].
In connection with what has been said above, and�also taking into account
the great amount oi information arriving from artificial earth satellites
and requiring the automation of the interpretation process, at the present
time the routine processing and suffici~ntly correct evaluation of the re-
=i~~hil~ty af the compu~ed para~neters is possible only by dispensing with
~ 81
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a priori stipulation of characteristics of the atmosphere and underlying ~
surface. Such a possibility is afforded by the use of inethods developed
in the theory of image recognition. In this case it is possible to limit
ourselves to a priori information only on the position (boundaries) of
test sectors of the earth's surface. In a given case when it is known that
the relationship between radiobrightness or the amplitude of a signal (ab- ~
solute radiobrightness temperatures are no longer required) and the density ~
of packing of the drifting ice is linear, in order to recognize sectors of
any density of packing it is necessary to have only two test sectors
the continuous ice cover and the open water surface. In the polar lati-
tudes such sectors are virtually constant, for example, the continuous ice
in the region near the pole and the open water surface in regions ad~acent
to the edge of the drifting ice.
- Taking into account the virtually simultaneous making of ineasurements in
the test sectors and their sufficient spatial extent, it can be assumed
that the signal dispersion, computed from the totality of ineasurements
within each of the test sectors, for the most part is determined by the
spatial nonuniformity of properties of the atmosphere and underlying sur-
face. .
In applying the algorithm for breakdown of signal amplitude into classes '
corresponding to the required number of ice density gradations we used
the known criterion of a"minimum of Euclidean distance." The boundaries
of the classes (gradations) were found in the following way:
B~ _ - ' ~3,
~41t-~ D~ -i- M~ Dr_ I
Di D!-1 '
i
where i= 1,...,n, Bi is signal strength at the boundary of the i-th and
i- lst classes, n is the number of classes to be determined, Mi is the
mean value of signal amplitude, Di is signal dispersion,
~1~1~ _/V1~ -i- M" n M' i i
(4 )
Drt-D~ ~ ~
Dl = D~ -I- a ,i i
M1, D1 and I~, Dn are the statistical characteristics of a signal in the ~
test sectors. ~
If the distribution function for the inhomogeneities responsible for the
dispersion is normal, on the basis of the stipulated reliability it is I
possible to determine the possible number of ice density gradations. For '
_ example, with a 95% reliability ~
n_~~'',-`~^) . '
4 V~0 . , ~5) ~
Or, by stipulating the required nim?ber of gradations, it is possible to
compute the reliability of their determination: _
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+ ~Mi-M�~
l~y- ' (6)
where c is the half-width of the confidence interval in mean square error
units.
ThP existing possibilities for autom~tion of the processing process and the
form of the primary information determined three work stages:
preparation of the initial mass of data;
determination of the density of ice packing and formation of the output
mass of data;
repYesentation of data in visualized form.
In the first stage, from the entire mass of data arriving from the satellite
complex of microwave instrumentation and after primary processing of data
registered on magnetic tape we select only the results of ineasurements made
by the scanning radiometer in a stipulated geographic region. Parallely,
the automatic digital printout unit delivers a mass of corresponding geo-
graphical coordinates of sectors sighted on the earth's surface. The meas-
urement data are converted and quantized in such a way that they can be
put out on a display. Since the quantization is accomplished at 255 levels
and the amplitude of fluctuations of the measured radiobrightness tempera-
ture is approaimately 200 K, the accuracq (detail) after conversion is not
lost. The mass of data obtained as a result is registered on magnetic tape.
In the second stage the processing is in an interactive regime. The collect-
ed mass is visualized on a half-tone display and the operator, being guided
by the table of geographic coordinates printed out in the first stage, ~
which also gives the numbers of lines and elements, determines the limits -
of the test sectors in the coordinates of the "photograph." The criterion
for choice of any sector is a priori data on the propagation of drifting
ice and the minimum of the noise visible on the screen. In addition, visual
monitoring makes possible prel~!.minary determination of the position of the
ice edge and the shoreline. After introduction of the corresponding cour-
dinates into the electronic computer tnere is computation of the statis-
tical characteristics of the signal in test sectors. Data are fed out by
teletype which the operator uses in making a decision about a d~finite num-
ber of ice density gradations (probability level) and communicates his de-
cision to the electronic computer. Then an element-by-element recognition is
made in an automatic regime with registry of the results of processing on a
magnetic tape.
The results are visualized in the third stage. The ice density map can be
put on a photocarrier in a h.alf-tone variant by means of a unit commutated
with an ~~~c;:.ronic computer. .ir_ is al.so possible to make a photographic
survey from a color display screen. In these cases the processing cycle
must include programs for transformation into the map projection and "fitt-
ing" of the coordinate grid, At the present time it is most convenient and
rapid to feed out the ice density map in symbols using ttie automutic digit-
a l ~f'P_(iJUt unit.
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_ The entire cycle for one-time processing of data relating to the territory
north of 50�N in a zone with a width of 800 km (data from one satellite
revolution) with the use of a YeS-1022 electronic computer and the special
complex for the processing of videoinformation available at the State Sci-
entific Research Center for the Study of Natural Resources occupies about
30 minutes. But it must be noted that in the presence of the necessary
a priori data the processing can be easily completely automated. -
The method ~escribed above was used in processing data for 15 revolutions
of the "MFteor-28." It was found that in summer, stipulating the 95% prob-
ability 1eve1, it is possible to obtain data on three gradations of the
densi~y of arctic drifting ice (with measurements at a wavelength 0.8 cm).
This information was compared with aerial ice reconnaissance maps. The
agreemert can be considered completely satisfactory.
Thus, the installation of scanning microwave apparatus on operational ar-
tificial earth satellites and automation of the process of processing of
measurements even now give a considerable economic effect.
BIBLIOGRAPHY ~
1. Basharinov, A. Ye., et al., "Results of Observations of Thermal Radio-
emission of the Earth's Surface Using Experimental Data from the 'Cos-
mos-243` Artificial Earth Satellite," KOSMICHESKIYE ISSLEDOVANIYA
(Space Research), Vol No 2, 1971.
2. Kuznetsov, I. M., "~Change in Water Temperature in the Near-Ice Edge
of Arctic Seas," TRUDY AANII (Transactions of the Arctic and Antarctic
Scientific Research Institute), Na 354, 1978.
3. Nikitin, P. A., Lyushvin, P. V., "The Possibility of Using Satellite
Microwave Radiometric Information for Uetermining the Characteristics
of the Ice Cover," KOSMICHESKAYA GEOFIZIKA: MATERIALY VSESOYUZNOGO
SEMINARA (Space Geophysics: Materials of the All-Union Seminar), Len-
ingrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978.
4. Rabinovich, Yu. I., Melent'yev, V. V., "Influence of Temperature and
Salinity on Radiation of a Smooth Water Surface in the Centimeter
Range," TRUDY GGO (Transactions of the Main Geophysical Observatory), _
No 235, 19'0.
5. Gloersen, P., et al., "Microwave Maps of the Polar Sea Ice of the
Earth," BULL. AMER. METEOROL. SOC., Vo1. 55, No 12, 1974.
84
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UDC 556.535.2
CHANGE IN WATER LEVELS WITH RETENTION OF FLOW VOLUME
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 69-76
[Article by Candidate of Technical Sciences F. M. Chernyshov, Novosibirsk
Institute of Water Transportation Engineers, submitted for publication 12
October 1979] -
Absrract: The article describes a method for
computing the mean long-term guaranteed proba-
bility of water leve~s for rivers in which in-
tensive dredging is carried out for navigation-
al purposes or in which sand, gravel or minerals
are extracted, and also for those rivers in which
there is active erosion of channels, such as in
- the reaches in the lower pools at hydroelectric
power stations. The author examines different
procedures for evaluating the annual change in
the mean long-term guaranteed probability of
the former planned or any other characteristic
water level on free and regulated rivers.
[Text) At the present time the phenomenon of an annual decrease in water
levels is observed on many rivers although their flow volume remains un-
changed. This is attributable to a number of f.actors: intensive dredging for
navigational purposes, exploitation of sand and gravel deposits on the bot-
tom, active erosion of channels in the lower pools at hydroelectric power
stations, etc. Accordiugly, there is a noncorrespondence between water-gag-
ing data for earlier years and modern data, and this will be true in the
future with o~her changes in river channels. For this reason as we detect
a noncorrespondence between water-gaging data for earlier years and the
present-da~y state uf river channels it :is necessary to correct these data.
In the. case of a"continuous" change in the state of the river channel
within the limits of a reach such a correction must be made annually prior
to the onset of the navigation seasor., particularly with respect to the
most important and decisive characteristics of the planned water level
its relative or absolute reading and its mean long-term guaranteed proba-
bility (in days or in percent). -
8~
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The years from whic h dredging work or deep erosion begin to exert an in-
fluence on the change (decrease) in the "planned" water level reading are
- usually called "year s of intensive dredging" in waterway practice. For ex-
_ ample, applicable to Ust'-Kutskiy water-gaging station on the Lena the on-
set of intensive dredging dates from 1961, whereas applicable to Podymakh-
inskiy water-gaging station the corresponding date is 19(i6.
Usually low and to some degree medium water levels are subject to change.
During high-water periods, when the volumes of the dredged channels con-
stitute but an insignificant fraction of the volume of the flow moving in
the river the level readings remain virtually unchanged. Thus, the matched .
Q= f(H) curves in their upper parts merge into a single curve and some-
where in the middle parts they begin to separate, gradually increasing '
rhis separation in the range of low levels, attaining maximum discrepanc-
ies in the case of minimum navigation levels. Such Q= f(H) curves for the
Ust'-Kutsk;.y water-gaging station on the Lena are shown in Fig. 1. It fol-
lows from this figur e that the merging points of the Q= f(H) curves are
"moving" points (see position of points a, b, c, etc.), moving upward with
an increase in the d uration of the period of intensive dredging.
Without question, the annual change in the guaranteed probability of the
former readings in the direction of a decrease will be rel~~ed to the
phenomenon of a decr ease in levels. The decrease in the guaranteed proba- ~
bility of the former reading of the planned level with its decrease can
be so significant that it will not correspond, for example, with respect
to navigation condit ions, to a particular class of internal waterways. The
approximate values of the guaranteed piobabilities of the planned level
in percent for different classes of internal waterways are given in
Table 1.
yM Table 1
� Guaranteed Probabilities of Planned
J
~ , Level for Different Classes of
2 up to ti b Internal Waterways
. Z~tig~~ ~
~ B 1'~~~ , ' a
. 1 = S 2 3 F 4
0 i~~ Ha 1970 in 1970 o�
Q ~ 4 C
i~ ~ ~rv 1965 Q~3/sec m`0 ~ G~ ~ " K `v o`~
~ Fo~ "o
~u C f a
, q= O A O`~ G p V L S
D SOJ i OOO . 1SOO Q N~~~ ~ d o` ~ T= C_ ~ G d
Xc.s ~u~o ~ms p=a.
Fig. 1. Con,jugation of Q= f(H) curves 1 I >200 100-75 95-9g
for years of intensive dredging with II 200-160 85-GS 93-97
curve for 1960. 200-I10 75-55 90-95
I V 150-80 70-45 85-93
_ V 1 I 0- 60 50-30 80-91
V 1 80-45 40-20 78-90
KEY TO TABLE: 1) Class of internal . G~~, x~>, y~
~~,~�o fH03~ _.c~', ~ erai�J ..a .r~, et�y~
~ Oyy' �eoo c~s ~eu oab
~�.m
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
" +35 I 76,5 73,3 I 67,0 66,0 62,0 61,5 61,3 46,0 45,0
+25 I 83,0 78,3 ?3,3 71,U 67,5 67,4 67,0 51,5 49,0
+ 20 90,0 81,0 75,5 72,5 70,0 fi9,5 69,5 53,5 51,3 '
+l5 94,0 83,3 78,1 74,6 74,0 73,6 72,5 57,6 56 8
+ 10 I 95,2 86,8 82,0 76,6 ?5,0 75,0 73,0 60,6 60,0
0 95,65 91,7 87,5 30.0 78,5 77,2 77,1 67,5 66,5 '
- 10 93,0. 95,65 93,8 &3,0 82,0 31,6 51,5 71,0 67~3
-20 99,0 97,3 95,65 87,7 87,5 37,2 87,0 75,0 72.0
-35 59.8 99,2 99,0 93,3 92,0 91,8 91,8 79,2 77,5
-4b 99,9 99,3 99,2 95,65 ~J4,6 94,() 9~,0 84,5 84,4
_ -50 ~IOO,U gg,g gg,4 96,5 95,65 95,0 95,0 86,5 86~5
-65 ~100,0 -~100,0 98,2 98,~ 96,9 96,8 92,0 92,5
-80 ~J,6 99,5 99,4 ~J,4 95,6 , 9~1,8 .
- KEY: ~ '
1. Relative readings of planned water level, cm
2. Guaranteed probabilities of different readings of planned 1eve1
by years, %
3. Prediction
4. Using first computation procedure
- 5. Using fourth computation procedure
~ 92
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-~--~--r NiN
_ r
. - --r---
~ ~
�~~~P to 160 _ ~ ~ _ _
a'j ' , t ~ !
� ~ . . ~ i
~ ~ `~'I
-
I Io~ ~ ~ Y 1967a. I L ~
'r~,
j I I_ ~ a0~~ i 1972 -~j .
7974t(197f-19dOtz ~ h BO . ~ _ 1970 I
rZ , o� y 7914(191f-19BOt tJ
~ 8 y~ ~ i~ 1901 �
9981 ~
~ 6
0 ~
C ~ i
.h' c,a 1B0 9#~ 100 60 ~f00 300 500 ~DO 300BM /cm3rseC
I
i
� 20
. ~
~
~ ~ y~ ~
i ~ ~ -
.
~ i e I C) (
~ ~ o
6 c~ O
i i
. -
� a i
~ ~ { g0 ~ _
ssr. ~ `
, ~ ~ ~ ~ - - ~ -
Fig. 4. Graphic determination (for water-gaging station I?1) of the change
_ in the reading and the guaranteed probabili~ty of the ~lanned water level
_ in the case of its deciease. a) usi.ng the guaranteed probability curve ~
for discharges at this same gaging station; b) usin~ the guaranteed prob-
ability curve for levels at the adjacent gagfng station H2 at which the
influence of dredging work or channel erosion ~c:fnsignifi~ant.
In the absence o_ reliable data on the annua:L Q= f(H) curves for the period'
of a water leve~ decrease the same constructions are possible applicable to
the graphs of annual correlations of the torresponding levels at two water- ~
gaging stations H1 = f(H2), one of which (H2) still does not experience the
_ process descri.bed in the article and .�or which the long-term water level
guaranteed probability curve is co~scructed once. The matching of these
categories of curves is illustrated on the left side of Fig. 4 and their
use in solving the considered problems is similar to the preceding case (in
Fig. 4 see the groups of points 8-1'1 and 8, 12-14).
According].y, it is necessary to have recourse to the use of the method for
computing water level guaranteed probability curves by using th~ so-called
fictitious series of levels for n- I years in cases when at all water-gag-
ing stations on a hydrologically uniform reach on a river there is the
phenomenon of a decrease in levels, when the above-mentioned assumptions
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Yj
lead to considerable errors in the results of computations, when in pre.dic-
tive computations it is necessary to take into account different alterna- _
tions of the volumes carried in the river reach in different years and in
different periods, and finally, when the available series of years of ob-
servations of watei� levels prior to the onset o~ the process of their de-
crease is inadequately long.
The use in engineering work of the described method for computing the mean
long-term guaranteed probability of water levels for river reaches with
intensive dredging or with a constant deep erosion of their channels will
make it possible to increase the quality and effectivQness of waterway and
= engineering field work and also to obtain data on change in the guaranteed _
probabi.lity of the planned and other characteristic water levels of pre- -
ceding years, which must be known in order to evaluate the operational
qualities of navigable rivers and the hydroengineering and water intake
structures~built along them. It is also important that using the described
method it is possible to make a reliable prediction of change in the guar-
anteed probability of some charac~eristic water levels for virtually any
time in a case of prolongation of the proce~s of their decrease. Yn all
- cases the developed computation method makes it possible to take into ac-
count the temporary or permanent~cessation of changes in water level read-
ings in a considered river reach.
BIBL?OGctAPHY
1. Denisovich, P. A., Makkaveyev, N. I., Rzhanitsyn, N. A., et al.,
PRAKTICHESKOYE POSOBIYE NACHAL'DTIKU PLESA (Practical Aid for the
River.Reach Supervisor), Moscow, Izd-vo MRF SSSR, 1951.
2. Lebedev, V. V., GIDROLOGIYA I GIDROMETRIYA V ZADACHAKH (Hydrology and
, Hydrometry in Problems~, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1955.
i
3. Chernyshov, F. M., "Validation of the Position of the Planned Water
Level for the Navigable Reaches of Free Rivers With Intensive Dredg-
ing," TRUDY NIIVTa (Transactions of the Scientific Research Institute
of Water Transportation Engineers), No 102, Novosibirsk, 1976.
0
.
94
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UDC 556.535.5(571.2+573~
_ SUPPORTING CAPACITY OF THE ICE COVER ON RIVERS IN THE ZONE OF THE BAYKAI,-
AMUR RAILROAD DURING SPRING `
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No S, May 80 pp 77-84 , -
[Article by Ye. F. Zabelina, USSR Hydrometeorological Scienti�ic Researcr
Center, submitted for publication 21 November 1979]
Abstract: The author obtained the stochastic times
" of onset of a definite supporting capacity of the
ice cover for a number of river reaches and develop-
ed a method for their computation which cari be us2d
, in the planning of ice roads and crossings and in
establishing the optimum regime for their opera-
tion, including for river reaches for which there
are no long-term observation series. A method is
~ proposed for computation and short-range forecast-
ing of onset of a definite supporting capacity of
the ice cover on rivers in the zone of the Baykal-
Amur Railroad.
[Text]_The severe clima.tic conditions of the zone o~ construction and ex-
= ploitation of the Baykal-Amur Railroad cause prolonged periods of ice
cover on rivers. Accordingly, construction of different structures re-
- quires solution of a number of ice engineering groblems. In particular, -
it is of great practical interesC to use the supporting capacity of the
ice cover on rivers for carrying'out different kinds of work with ice, _
construction of ice roads and crossings.
The theory of computation of the supporting capacity of the ice cov~r has -
now been well developed and great experience in its use has been accumul -
ated in practice. A sufficiently complete bibliography on this question
is given in [2, 7].
Important aspects of improvement of computations are evaluation and predic-
, tion of supporting capacity of the ice cover.during thaw periods.
. 9~
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run urrll.irtL u~t~. UNL1
The ice cover during the prespring and spring periods is weakened by -
. througr. cracks, washed-out hollows and marginal breaks. It is therefore
necessary to determine the supporting capacity of a semi-infinite plate
on an elastic base with central flexure under a load at the edge of a
crack or polynia. For solving this problem D. F. Panfilov [8J proposed
a computation equation in the form
0,37:iouh= (1+4,1 al ~1)
~ ~ u � ~flea~ F'. - ~ '1.75 ~
where P is the limiting load on the ice, tons; ~flex is the breaking
point of ice under flexure, tons/m2; h is ice thickness, m; o~ = r0/~,,;
(in this expression rp is the radius of an equivalent circle over whose
area the load P is distributed; this radius is found usimg the formula
rp =~/rl , where c.3 is the area of t:ie load support); is a character-
istic~ of the ice cov~r, being a function of plate rigidity D and the
. elastic base coefficient y;
1= ~ _ E1irs
Y' 12(1-a=)'
accordingly
rh~ ,
~ i' 1'l(1-n")7`
where n is the Poisson coefficient, E is the elastic modulus of ice.
D. F. Panfilov demonstrated that when OC falls in the limits 0.1-0.7 equa-
tion (1) ensures an accuracy in computations exceeding practical require-
ments.
The principal rlifficulty in computing the supporting capacity of the ice
cover during spring is the choice of an acceptable value of the breaking
point of ice under flexure in connection with the rapid change in the
mechanical properties of ice during the thawing period.
The presenC status of investigations makes it possible to carry out an in-
direct evaluation of the strength characteristics of the ice cover
during the thawing period on the basis of the factors determining them.
The method developed at the USSR Hydrometeorological Center by N.,Bula-
tov [3] makes it possible to compute the thickness and strength oF the
melting ice each day, beginning with the date of the disappearance of
snow from it to the moment of total loss of strength.
The relative strength of the melting ice cover is expressed by the relative
= breaking point which is the ratio of the breaking point of inelting ice
under flexure dflex to the breaking point of ice prior to the onset of -
thawing ~p. In the computations d0 was assumed to be constant, equal
to 5 kg/cm~ [2]. The relative breaking point of inelting ice under flexure
. 96 ~
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SO is determined in dependence on the quantity of solar radiation absorb- -
ed by the ice. The computation formula has the form ,
- (1 Y So )2' (2)
where S is the quantity of solar radiation ab5orbed by the ice, determining
tt~e content of the liquid phase in the ice, S~ is the quantity of solar ~
radiation with the absorp~ior, of which the ice completely loses its
strength. The Sp value is dependent on the ice structure. In the above com-
putations S~ was assumed to be constant, equal to 44 cal/cm3 [2J. As a
characteristic of ice cover strength we use the product (complex) ~ h,
where h is the thickness of the thawing ice, cm.
Assuming OC= 0.7 and taking into account that ~lex~ ~0~ the computa-
tion equation (1) can be written in the following form
P _ 1,306�~oq h: ~3~
_ 2~75~103 '
An estimate of the supporting capacity of the ica cover of rivers in the
zone of laying of the Baykal-Amur Railroad during the melting period was `
made usinQ data for six points for the period from 1950 through 1975. The
computations were made for each day using equat-!on (3) with the correspond-
ing ~ and h values.
The limiting loads determined using formula (3) correspond to conditions
of ice cover destruction. The safety factor 1.6 was introduced for safe
operation of the crossing, as r_ecommended in [S].
T`hese computations make it possible to give a general description of the
change in the supporting capacity of the ice cover in the thawing proces~. -
The most convenient,index of the course of decrease in the supporting~cap-
acity of the ice cover is the time of onset of definite, stipulated values;
the ending of crossing of specific loads is determined by the corresponding
values.
In~order to obtain the stochastic characteristics of the dates of onset of
~ stipulated supporting capacity (that i$, the. dates corresponding to a
supporting capacity of the ice cover of not less than 30 tons, 20 tons, 10 -
tons, 5 4ons, witY~ the safety factor taken into account) we constructed
probability curves whose coordinates are given in the table. The computed
supporting capacity sets in no later than on the date indicated in the
table for a given probab~.lity. T'he tabZe shows that the nature of the .
changes in supporting capacity of the ice cover is dependent to a consider-
able degree on the maximum ice thickness. The greater tt is, all other con- -
ditions being equal, the greater is the supporting capacity of the ice
cover.
_ It must be noted that for river reaches with an ice thickness by the onset
of thawing of 1.7 m or mare the supporting capacity of the ice cover can
att::in 40-50 tons. For example, for ~he Olekma River at Ust'-�Nyukzl:a post
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~
the ice thickness by the onset of thawing in most cases is 1.7-2.7 m; the
;
probability that the ice cover will retain a supporting capacity of not ;
less than 40 tons by 15 April is 50% and by 30 March 5%, that is, the ;
crossing of such loads should end so early only once in 20 years.
. The influence of ice ~hickness on the nature of change in supporting cap-
acity of the ice cover m~de it possible to generalize the computation
_ data and obtain a single nomogram for estimating the supporting capacity
of the ice cover for all rivers in the zone except for river reaches with .
anomalous nelting cenditions, determined by the influence of local factors j
(outlets of warm springs, etc.). � '
hGM
1? S l0 25 SO 7SX
9B0 '
i
- 96D
~
_
940
� 920
~
900 ~
� !
B 21 J111F 10 ZO ~i01p 90P ~
Fig. 1. Nomogram for determining the dates prior to which a supporting cap- ~
acity of the ice cover of not less than 5 tons is retained with a stipulat-
ed probability.
Figure 1 shows a nomogram making it possible, in dependence on the norm of
the maximum ice thickness (h cm~, to determine the stochastic characteris- ~
tics of the times by the moment of whose onset the supporting capacity of
the ice cover will be not less than 5 tons. The probable error in deter- ;
mining ~hese times does not exceed tl-2 d~ys. A similar nomogram was con-
structed for determinipg the times of onset of a supporting capacity of
the ice cover of 10 tons. i
The cited nomogram can be used under the following conditions: first, the ~
norm of the maximum ice thickness varies in the range from 0.8 to 1.8 m,
and second, the mea~s.long-term dates of opening-up of the rivers should -
fall in the range fcom 28 April through 10 Ma.y. These conditions are char-
acteristic for most of the rivers in the zone of construction of the Baykal-
Amur Railroad. For using the nomogram applicab~e to rivers for which there
are no data on the ice thickness or whose data are inadequate the mean
98 ~
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~
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Table 1
5tochastic Characteristics of Dates of Onset of a Stipulated Supporting
Capacity of the Ice Cover on Rivers
3 4 Aara~ xacryRaex~rA aa,aaexo~ ~
o ~ rpyaoaoA~se~txocrx, o6ecne~esewe xa
~ F -
Pexa RyNKT ~ O ~
s
~G~ 1% 2~ 5~ 10;~ 25~ 50~ 759b
, 1 2 0~= .
x~~
. 5 I~~1y30i10A'b6MHOC76 3O T
6 OnexMa 12 ~ Ycrb-HwtcHCa ~ 1,82 ~27 11[ ~29 ll[ ~ 2,IV ~ ~ lV ~11 (V ~17 1V
~ 5 I'pyaonoA~eMxocrb 20 r ' .
6 OneKMa 12 Ycrb-Hwxkca 1,82 1 IV 4 iV 8 IV 11 IV 17 1V 25 1V -
7 CeaeMaxs CTOt~6a 1,~1 2t III 24 !li 27. lll 30 lll
$ AMCyHb Hpy~~xa I 1,28 I 17 I1l I22 III I25 lll I2S Ill I 1 IV ~ 9 1V -
I
5 Tpy3ono,q~seMxccrb ]0 r '
6 Onex~ra ].Z YcTb�Haxxca 1,82 8 IV 10 IV 15 IV 18 !V 22 iV 30 IV - ~
~ Cenea~Axc~3 I CroA6a ~ 1,31 I24 11l I27 1[I I 2 IV I 3 IV I 9(V I13 IV I_
8 AMTYHb HPyMK9 1,~~ ~ 1~~ �3~ 1j~ ~V ~ ~V ~5 ~V `
S TpysonoA'~~xoc~rb 5 r
6 KxpeHra 15 K8384tIHCKOt 0,81 22 III 25 ll1 27 lil 31 111 2 IV - �
OnexMa 12 Ycrb-H~oxxca 1, 82 14 ( V 17 1 V 22 I V 25 1~' 1 V 7 V 13 V
10 Hopa 16 Ycrt>e 3nbrt~ I, 05 24 I I I 27 I l l l I V 5 1 V 1] 1 V 1 fi 1 V 20 I V
Ceneetllxcal3 CrotiGa 1,31 27 IlI 3t tl[ 5 IV 9 TV 14 i`! 19 (V 22 IV
11 s~rcca 11 Bt~cca 0,87 23 ll l 26 I I I 30 111 1 1 V 4 1 V 8 I V 11 1 V
g AMrynb 14 Npya~xa 1,28 28 1I1 3 IV 7 IV I1 1V i6 IV 22 IV 26. iV
KEY:
1. River .
' 2. Station
3. Norm of maximum ice thickness, m
4. Uates of onset of stipulated supporting capacity, ensured by...
5. Supporting capacity...tons
6. Olekma
7. Selemdzha ,
8 . Amgun `
9. Kirenga
10. Nora '
I1. Byssa _
12. ;131' ~--r;yukzha ~ -
13. Stoyba ~
14 . Irumlca
15. Kazachinskoye
16. Ust'yE E1'gi
99
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long-term maximum ice thickness can be determined from the map cited in
~4~,
It must be noted that on such rivers as the Vitim, Chara, Goudzhokit, trib-
utaries of the Aldan and a number of refreezing rivers the opening-up
~ usually occurs later in mid-May. In these cases one must expect a great-
er supporting capacity of the ice cover on these same dates.
For the proper operation of crossings and carrying out work on ice it is
very important to predict the times of onset of a definite supporting cap- ~
acity of the ice cover in each year. For this same purp6se it is also pos-
sible to use computations by the S. N. Bulatov method [3] with the use pf
the program which we proposed. It is difficult to carrq out such computa-
tions bq the S. N. Bulatov method under the real canditions of prediction
' in the field due to the excessive work inwlved in making these computations
without an eiectronic computer. This makes it necessary to seek more ac-
cessible methods for precomputing the strength of the iee cover and the ~
dates of onset of a definite supporting capacity.
We recall the availability of the V. M. Timchenko formula [llj for deter-
mining the complex ~ h in dependence on the number of days of m2lting n
and on the thickness of the ice cover on the tirst day of inelting hp, that
is, on the first day after disa~pearance of the snow from the ice covQr.
f0 h= h~ ~1 - n ! 12 ~4~
0.32hp
This dependence was derived in the example of the Ussuri River using data
for eight points for an ice thickness not exceeding 100 cm and for per-
iods of thawing of the ice cover not eaceeding 30 days. The ~ h values
computed using formula (4) reflect the mean characterii~tics of decrease
. in strength for a particular ice thickness and the possible minimum values
of the ~ h complex are not taken into account.
On the considered rivers the thickness of the ice cover by the beginning
of thawing during the period from 1950 through 1975 changed on the Se1-~�
emdzha at Stoqba post from 80 to 220 cm and the thawing time varied from
26 to 38 days; on the Olekma at Ust'-Nyukzha~post --.fro~ 116 to 270.cm
with a thawing time from 30 to 50 days. Accorc~ing~y, computations of the
50 h complex using equation (4) for a numher of years gave results differing
greatly from the true figures.
Below we outline a method for precomputiag the strength of the ice cover
and the dates of onset of a definite supporting capacity, developed in
the example of the Selemdzha and OZekma Rivers.
Without question, the intensity of thawing and the decrease in the strength
of the ice cover are determined primarily by the arrival of heat at its
surface. The heat receipts at the ice cover can be calcu].ated by computing �
100
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the heat exchange q on the basis of ineteorol~gical data. The q value con-
sists of the specific values of receipts of the heat of solar radiation
qs, heat exchange due to evaporation (conde~sation) LE, convective heat
exchange P, 2nd effective radiation Ieff�
q= qs + LE + P+ Ieff � ~5)
The heat exchange components can be computed using formulas recommended
- in [3].
llO~I~GYJ�G /D . 2.~ _ .-~C'f
4 y) q cal/ (cm da -
640 ~ ?4
1J
S80 11
11
9E0 ~ 10
9
y~ d
7
B
J20 S
J
?90 p
1
1B0 ~ 0
�T
gp . -3
~ ~-.y
. p ~ .
10 10 J1.~ 10 20 JD1P � 10 ZOY
.t ~f.i~.~r 2
Fig. 2. Nomogram for determining the apecific daily heat eachange at the
- surface of the ice cover of rivers in the zone of the Baykal-Amur Rail-
road on the basis of inean da~ly ~ir temperature and date.
The computation nomogram shown in Fig. 2 wa~s constructed on the oasis Af
equation (5) using data for Stoyba meteorol~gical station in accordance
with the recommendations in th~ manual [9]. Using such a nomogram it is
possible to determine the heat exchange through a unit (cm2) of the upper
surface of the ice cover in a day on the basis of the date and the mean
daily air temperature. The heat exchange values obtained uaing the nomo-
gram are used as the specific values of the daily heat exchange q cal/(cm2�
day).
~n constructing the nomogram the computations of the resulting heat ex-
change values q were made on the ISth of each month, in this case March,
. April and May, for each whole degree of inean daily air temperature from
-4 to +15�C. The albedo was assumed to be constant for the thawing period,
equal to 0.35. The clox~d cover and mean daily wind velocity were assumed
~ to,be constant in aeeo,rdance Wi~h data from many years of observations at
Stoyba meteorological station jI01. The mean daily vapor elasticity in
101
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~.he air was determined from a graph showing the correlation with mean
daily air temperature.
. Since the route of the Baykal-Amur Railz~oad extends latitudinally in the
limits 51-57�N it can be assumed that the difference in the mean long-
term receipts of solar radiation is small and the influence of this fac-
tor is the same over the territory. The nomogram (Fig. 2) can therefore
be rece+mmended for computing the heat receipts by the ice cover on all
rivers of the Baykal-Amur Railroad zone.
It mus t be noted that the heat sums determined using the nomogram must be
~ regard ed as relative characteristics of thawing of the ice cover sinc~
they do not reflect the singularity of the heat balance of thawing ice
~ [2]. The process of tha�~ing and dest~uction of the ice cover is determin-
ed not only by the total quantity of heat expended in melting, but also by
the nature of the effect exerted on the ice by individual heat exchange
_ components. In particular, in the zone of the Baykal-Amur Railroad the
snow frequently disappears long before the appearance of a positive heat
balanc e at the surface of the ice cover, after which, as a result of the
intensive influx of solar radiation during spring, there is thawing in
t~?e ice layer. Within the ice there is formation of fluid inclusions and
- fluid layers between crqstals. The presence of the liquid phase in the
thawing ice is the basi,c reason for the decrease in its strength.
For those cases when the hPat balance at the surface of the ice cover dur-
ing a number of successive days has a minus sign, proceeding on the basis
of the concepts concerning the processes transpiring during melting of .
the ic e, it was agreed that the �ollowing procedure be adopted for deter-
mining q. The period during which a negative heat balance is observed is
broken down into three-day intervals. In each interval we determine the
mean daytime reduced cloud cover N, then the sum of the mean daily nega-
tive air temperatures e, from which a value equal to -20�C is then sub-
tracted and the duration (in days) of the period D from 20 March to the
mean date of the considered interval is determined. The computation for-
mulas have the following form .
when O~N~2 q=9,77 D-}-7,50 0-I-72, (6)
when ~~N47 q=7,52D-}-7,509-f-32,
(7)
if N> 7, then q is assumed equal to zero .
Thus, with the use of the nomogram (Fig. 2) and formulas (6),�(7) it is
possibl e to determine q during ~11 the days after the disappearance of
the saow and the total heat receipts
Q � E Q,
for the entir~ thawing period.
- ~ 102
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It was established that at Stoyba post on the Selemdzha River and at Ust'-
Nyukzha post on the Olekma River the dependence of the value of the ~ h
complex, characterizing ice strength, on the quantity of heat incident on
the ice cover during a period of thawing.can be expressed using the empir-
ical formula
h = ae-oQ
~8)
where Q is the total heat receipts on the computation date, a, b, c are
parameters whicti are established emgirically for the computation points. .
Taking into account a def inite degree of risk in the planning of ice roads
and crossings, the parameters a, b, c in formula (8) were selected in such
a way that the values of the ~f h complex were the minimum of those posaible.
For this purpose, during the period from 1950 through 1975 we constructed
graphs showing the correlation between the parameters a and c and the
thickness of the ice cover on the first day of thawing. The lower enve-
Zope of the field of points was drawn on the graphs.
The derived dependences are approximated by the following equatioas:
for the Selemdzha River at Stoyba post
- a=11,0+0,56 ho, (9)
c- 1514,0 e-0'45'' ho -t- 0,33 ho - 39,'l6;
(10)
for the Olelana River at Ust'-Nyukzha post
a=4,76+0,68ho, ~ (11)
c= 2'?i ,3 e-0~02J 0,45 ho - 66,0,
(12)
where h~ is the tr.ickness of the ice cover on the first daq of thawing,
cm. The parameter c when the ice thickness is less than 100 cm must be as-
sumed equal to 0. The b value for both points is equal to 0.001.
A guaranteed prediction of the onset c~f the times of reaching of a definite
supporting capacity is prepared using the fol2owing scheme. First the date
- of onset of ice melting is determined. The first day of ice melting is t~e
_ day following the date of snow disappearance. The latter is computed. Then
successively, day after day, the nomogram (Fig. 2) is used in determining
the heat receipts with the possible advance time and equations (8) and,(3)
_ are used in precomputing the ~h complex and the supporting capacity of
the ice cover. The date adopted for the on~et of a definite.supporting
capacity is Chat on which for the first time, w~~~ strength safety
factor 1.6 taken into account, there is satisfaction of the condition P.= Pp,
where PD is the stipulated supporting capacity for Ghich computations are
_ made in the prediction.
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The adopted prediction model ex~ludes cases of the onset of a stipulated ~
supporting capacity earlier than the predicted date,, In SOy of the cases
the actual dates are up to two days later and in 30% of the cases up tc~ '
4-S days later than expected.
It should be noted that if an error in prediction in the early direction,
at least in the range of two da~?s, is considered admissible, then in 84X
of the cases the error will not exceed the limits �2 days.
As is customary in short-range ice forecasts, in preparing this type of
prediction use is made of an air temperature forecast for 3--5 days in ad- '
vance. Accordingly, the advance time of the prediction will be determined
by the advancc time of the temperature forecast. Long-term experience in
the preparation of short-range predictions af the freezing and opening-up '
of rivers indicates that the use of a temperature forecast does not sub-
stantlally reduce the probable success of these predictions in comparison ~
with the guaranteed probability of the method [1].
The materials presented abbve make it possible to conclude that the sup-
. porting capacity of the ice cover on riners of the Baykal-Amur Railroad
zone during spring persists for a considerable time after its weakening
by thawing processes. ;
~
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Antigova, Ye. G., Balashova, I. V., "Analysis and Generalization of �
Experience in Prepar.ing Short-Range Forecasts of the Times of Ice '
Phenomena," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR (Transactions of the USSR ~
Hydrometeorological Center), No 186, 1977.
2. Bulatov, S. N., "Computation of a Thawing Ice Cover and Onset of the '
Wind Drif t of Ice," TRUDY GIDROMETTSENTRA SSSR, No 74, 1970. ,
3. Bulatov, S. N., METODIKA RASCHETA TOLSHCHINY I PROCHNOSTI TAYUSHCHEGO
LIDYANOGO POKROVA DLYA TSELEY RASCHETA I PROGNOZA SROKOV VSKRYTIYA
REK I VODOKHRANILISHCH (Method for Computing the 1'hickness and Strength
of a Thawing Ice Cover for the Purposes of Computing and Predicting the
Times of Opening-UF of Rivers and Reservoirs), Mosco~,T, Gidromettsentr
SSSR, 1974.
i
4. Ginzburg, B. M., et al., OSNOVNYYE KHARAKTERI5TIKI LEDOVOGO REZHIMA
REK RAYONA BAYKALO-AMURSKOY MAGISTRALI (Principal Char3cteristics of i
the Ice Regime of Rivers in the Region of the Baqkal-Amur Railroad), '
Moscow, Gidromettsentr SSSR, 1976.
5. Gusev, 0. V., PEREPRAVY PO L'DU (Ice Crossings), Leningrad, Gidrometeo- I
izdat, 1961.
~
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~ 6. Zabelina, Ye. F., "Some Characteristics of Strengkh of the Ice Cover
During the Per iod of Opening-Up of Rivers in the Baykal-Amur Zone,"
METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 10, Z979.
7. Marchuk, A. N., PEREKRYTIYE REK POD LEDYANYM POKROVOM (Crossing of
Ri~ers With an Ice Cover), Moscow, Energiyas 1973.
8. Panfilov, D. F., "Approximate Method for Computing the Supporting Cap-
acity of an Ice Cover," IZVESTIYti VNIIG (News of the All-Union Scien-
- tific Research Institute of Hydroengineering), Vol 64, 1960.
' 9. RUKOVODSTVO PO GIDROLOGICHESKIM PROGNOZAM. VYP. 4. PftOGNOZY LEDOVYKH
YAVLENIY NA REKAKH I VODOKEIItANILISHCHAKH (Manual on Hydrological
- Forecasts. No 4. Forecasts of Ice Phenomena on Rivers and Reservoirs),
Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1963.
10. SPRAVOCHNIK PO KLIMATU SSSR (Handbook of USSR Climate), Leningrad, -
Gidrometeoizdat, No 25, Part II, Part III, Part IV, Part V, 1966.
- 11. Timchenko, V. M., "Computation and Precomputation of the Strength
Chaxacteristics of the Ice C~ver on Rivers for the Pur.pose of Pre-
dicting Their Opening-Up," TRUDY DVNIGMI (Transactions of the Far East-
ern Scientific Research Hydrometeorological Institute), No 47, 1975.
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~
I
~
~
~
. UDC 632.11:633.11(574.11) '
- ;
CORRELATION BETWEEN THE YIELD OF WINTER WHEAT AND PHOTOSYNTHETICALLY '
ACTIVE RADIATION '
i
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 85-92 ~
. [Article by Candidate of Agricultural Sciences L. G. Pigareva, West Kazakh-
stan Agricultural Institute, submitted for publication 28 November 1979] i
Abstract: The author has demonstrated the in-
fluence of agrometeorological conditions pre- i
vailing in the autumn, winter and spring-summer
periods on the yield of winter wheat grain. In ~
the example of the production of sown crops the
article demonstrates the effectiveness of use of i-
photosynthetically active radiation by wheat ;
plants in the case of a north-south orientation
of the plant rows. :
['PextJ In the grain zone of northwestern Kazakhstan the highest percentage
' of sown areas is occupied by spring wheat. However, a comparative analysis
of the change in the yield of spring wheat of the Saratovskaya-42 variety
and winter wheat of the Mironovska.ya-808 variety during the last five ~
years (1974-19'18) shows that winter wheat should occupy a leading place
- among the other grain crops (see Table 1).
Winter wlieat has(a greater yield than spring wheat; it reacts considerably '
better to favora~,le agrometeorological conditions, ensuring a very high
yield (41.3 centners/hectare in 1978) and sharply reducing it in years
unfavorable for the wintering of crops (9.4 centners/hectare in 1977). '
I
In evaluating the agroclimatic resources for the yield of winter wheat, '
A. R. Konstantinov [1] notes that isol ines pass through Ura1'sk and Aktyu-
binsk (northwestern Kazakhstan), to the east of which its yield is reduced
by 50-75% as a result of a deteriorat~.on of wintering conditions.
The~great value of the Mironovskaya-808 variety encouraged us in an attempt
to find in the first approximation, at least, the dependence of the yield
of a particular "regionalized" variety on the agrometeorological indices
and obtain some idea concerning the rationality of cultiva~ting a partic- :
ular~crop under the conditions of. the very continental climate of our zone.
' 106
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_ Table 1
Yield of Winter and Spring Wheat (Centners/Hectare) at the Zelenovskaya
Strain-Testing Station in Uralskaya Oblast
CpeAxee 2
CopT 1974 1975 1976 � 1977 1978
1 eaH?t: -
Hau6oauw.3
L} MHpOHOBCKBA�8OH 36,8 12,5 13,3 g,4 25,0
9; .�-41,3
5 CapaTOecxa$-42 21,6 5,3 17,4 6,0 33,7 ~6,6
5,~-33,7
6 � ypoxca~i~~ocrb no 3e~eF~oscxoMy pa?~oHy ~ ucnoM
KEY:
1. Variety
2. Mean
3. Minimum-maximum
4.�Mironovskaya-808
S. Saratovskaya-42
6. Yield for Zelenovskiy Ra.yon as a whole
E 'C
1600 � ~
� �
9500 - � ~
e
1400 . - ~
1300 � ' ~ .
�
t100 ' � � � ~
. ~
� 1100 '
6B0 700 �t~n'C
Fig. 1. Dependence of sum of aegative temperatures during the winter period -
on the sum of inean daily 3uly temperatures.
An analysis of available data from the ~iydrometeorological Service, state
strain-testing stations in Ural'skaya Oblast during 1964-1978 and also
our field crops on farms and the results of experiments in the experimental ;
field of the West Kazakhstan Agricultural Institute during 1974-1978 re-
veals a high dependence of the yield of the Mironovskaya-808 variety on ~
agrometeorological indices. For example, in such five-year periods as 1965- �
1969, 1970-1974 and the last four years (1975=1978) there was an increase
in the amplitude of variation in the yield of 17.9, 30.4 and 31.9 centners/
hectare respectively. At the same time, the indices of the mean yield for
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the indicated periods (12.1, 18.0 and 19.1 centners/hectare) once again
confirm the assumption that under the conditions prevailing in northwest- -
ern Kazakhstan the moisture supply limits the effectiveness of the use of
the heat supply and.solar radiatian by plants.
The complexity of use of the "weather-yield" problem with respect to winter
wheat is also governed by the fact that the two preriods defined in its ac-
tive growing season are separated; on their agrometeorological conditions
_ is depez~dent to a large extent whether or not there will be a spring-st+mmer
growing season for the particular crop.
The sowing of winter wheat of the Mironovskaya-808 variety under the condi-
tions prevailing in northwestern Kazakhstan is carried out for the most
part in the third 10-day period of August when the mean daily temperatures
during the sowing-sprouting period attain 18-19�C and the moistening coef-
ficient (K~oist h/0.45 ~ d, where h is the sum of falling precipita-
tion in mm, ~ d is the sum of the mean daily dew-point spreads) for August-
September varies from 0.01 to 0.60. ~
Data on the mean yield of this variety at seed selection stations in Ural-
skaya Oblast during 1965-1978 show that with their. increasing distance
from north to south there was a decr~ase in the moistening coefficient from
0.15 at the more northerly Zelenovsk2~ya station to O.i2 at the more south-
erly Dzhambeytinskaya station which caused a decrease in the mean crop yield
from 16.2 to 9.7 centners respectively. And the high correlation coef-
ficient between the grain yield and the moistening coefficient (0.688) is
evidence of the important role of moisture supply conditions of the autumn
period in the fate of the future yield.
F~R~�4,z�~o'pW/M' photosynthetically active radiation..,J/m2
>7 r~~~
9 q/ta % i
?
~6 40 � ~ ~~-_4 ~lp,~p~ i
' b ~ ~V
/ ' ~/i
~s r~ Jo d ~
. ~
~s zo
,
. ~ ~ ~
~ ~a
~ ~o ~
Z ~
t'
13:1 .'965 ~968 1970 1971 197y 1916 ~910
Fig. 2. Dependence of grain yield of winter wheat Mironovska.ya-808 (I) on
sum of photosynthetically active radiation (2) during spring-summer growing
season and. moistening coefficient (3) during agricultural year.
1) photosynthetically active radiation...J/m2; 2) yield, centners/hectare;
3~ Kmoist .
- . 108
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A thorough analysis of the influence of ineteorological conditions of the
winter period (depth of the snow cover, depth of soi.l freezing, sum of
negative temperatures by months, absolute and mean minimum temperature of
_ the air, soil, etc.) on the yield of grain of the Mir~novskaya-808 variety
indicated that the highest correlation coefficient (-0.625) is noted be-
tween the yield and the sum of the mean daily negative temperatures
t< p~~) of the autumn-winter - early spring period. In such years as
1967, 1969, 1972, 1976 and 1977, when the sum of negative temperatures
attained 1,500�C or more, at the state strain testing stations there were
areas either of death of crops or a minimum yield (in the range 2.0-3.1
centners/hectare). Our further investigations indicated that the ;ndi-
cated sum of negative temperatures usually corresponds to a low moisten-
ing coefficient for the autumn Yariod (August-September) and a definite
sum of the mean daily temperatures in July.
We found a high correlation coefficient (0.630) between the sum of inean
daily temperatures in July and~the sum of inean daily temperatures during
the subsequent cold ~~riod. It was established that a sum of inean daily
- temperatures in July from 600 to 700�C corresponds to a sum of negative
temperatures from 900 to 1,300�C (Fig. 1), that is, a sum of temperatures
relatively favorable for the wintering of crops of the Mironovsl.aya-808
variety. Beyond the limits of these temperatures, both less than 600�C and
greater than 700�C, the sums of negative temperatures attain 1,500�C or
more. Thus, the sums of inean daily temperatures in July, on the one hand,
and the moistening coefficient in August, on the other hand, indicate
the degree of rationality of sowing of winter wheat in a speCific qear.
The mean yield of winter wheat during 1965-1978 (Zelenovskiy rayon and
Zelenovskiy strain testing station) was 16.2 centners/hectare. However,
during years when the percentage of wintering plants attained more than -
SO it rose to 20.9 centners/hectare.
The extent to which wintering conditions exert an influence on the gi3in
yield is also indicated by the following facts: wheat not sprouting in
autumn (Dzhambeytinskiy state strai~ testing station, 1967 and 1972), with
a sum of negative temperatures in the winter period 1,200�C and 1,250�C,
gave a yield of 16.5 and 11.4 centners/hectare respectively.
For wintering plants we found a high correi.ation coefficient (0.814) be-
tween the yield and the reserves of productive moisture in the soil layer
0-100 cm at the beginning of the spring growing season. This indicates
that the spring moisture supplies in the soil are a highly important
agrometeorological "inertial fact~7r," exerting a considerable influence ~
on the grain yield.
We also fuund a high depenclence (r = 0.757) between the yield of winter
wheat of the Mironovskaya-808 variety and the moistening coefficient dur-
ing the agricultural year, which is clearly traced'on the graph (Fig. 2).
~ 109
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An analysis of this graph indicates that the low moisture reserves in the
soil in such years as 1967, 1969, 1972 and 1977 correspond to low moist-
ening coefficients 0.22, 0.23, 0.20 and 0.23.and as a result low grain
yields: 2.5, 2.1, 6.4 ~nd 9.4 centners/hectare. In years when the reserves ~
of productive moisture are greater than 50y of the field moisture capacity
a high yield also corresponds to a high moistening coefficient.
An analysis of the data in Fig, 2 also shows that in years with identical
moisture reserves in the soil layer 0-100 cm at the beginning of the
spring growing season and a relatively identical moistening coefficient
the high sum of photosynthetically active radiation during the period of
the spring-summer growing season in these years also causes a higher grain
yield. This dependence is traced in auch years as 1966 and 1976, 1969 and
1972, 1968 and 1971, 1970 and 1974, 1970 and 1978, 1974 and 1978.
In a comparison of the indices of receipt of photosynthetically active
radiation during the period of the spring-summer growing season and the
moistening coefficients at the northern Zelenovskaya and the more southerly
Dzhambeytinskaya state strain testing stations it was noted that with an
_ increase in the receipts of energy of photosynthetically active radiation ~
during the indicated per~od with movement from north to south through Ural'-
skaya Oblast the grain yield increases even with relatively lesser moisten-
ing ~oefficients. On the basis of these data it can be concluded that photo-
synthetically act{ve radiation under the conditions of our zone is an im-
portant agrometeorological factor governing the formation of the yield of
winter wheat grain.
An ana.lysis of available data for Ural'skaya Oblast for 1964-1978 indicated
that the correlation coefficient between the grain yield and the sum of
photosynthetically active radiation with a moistening coefficient from
0.16 to 0.20 is -0.326. This indicates that with a moistening coefficient
less than 0.20 the solar radiation is excessive for winter wheat plants. ~
However, with a moistening coefficient greater than 0.23 the dependence
between the grain yield of winter wheat and the sum of photosynthetically
active radiation during its spring-summer growing season increases consider-
ably (r = 0.821). In the autumn winter wheat growing season we did not find
a high dependence between the solar radiation~elements and the grain yield.
This is attributable to the low moistening coefficient for this~period.
Solar radiation is a highly important climatic factor exerting a great in-
fluence on all aspects of the life of plants. For the plant organism the ~
duration of the solar day, the quantity and quality of solar radiation are
vitally important factors regulating the develupment and maturing of plants, '
the grain yield and its technological indices.
The life of plants is dependent to a considerable degree on the heat and
water regimes, on soil conditions, agricultural techniques, etc. The sig-
nificance of these factors in the formation of the future yield of agri.-
cultural crops has been studied relatively completely, whereas until recent-
ly inadequate attention has been devoted to the study of the role of solar
~radiation for a number of rea.sonsA
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Solar radiation is absorbed in the photosynthesis process. Tt~e greatest _
effectiveness of photosynthesis rEquires not only r~?e creation of a
favorable medium, but also the directing of the plant growth processes -
in such a way that they give the ma.ximum, most valuable production for
man.
As early as 1882 I. A. Stebut noted that the illumination of plants and
their use of solar energy considerably change in dependence on the direc-
tion of sowing of agricultural crops.
It has now been established that the upper erect wheat leaves transmit
sol.ar light better at midday and more effectively absorb it in the morning
and evening hours (F. Mota, M. Acosta, 1970; Ch. Baldy, 1973). G. P. Mak- -
simchuk (1970) points out that with a slope of the leaf blade of 87.3� the
wheat grain yield is 23.9 centners/hectare, whereas with a slope of 33.2�
it is 34.7 centners/hectare. It has been calculated that the photosynthetic
potential of the upper leaf and the upper internode determines 60-80y of
the yield (J. Spiertz, B. Hag, 1971).
In order ~o study this problem, during 1974-1978 in an experimental field
of the 4Jest Kazakhstan Agricultural Institute and at sovkhoz enterprises
in the oblast we carried out experiments with the sowing of winter wheat
of the Mironovskaya-808 variety in rows with a nQrth-south and west-east
orientation.
The actinometric and meteorological measurements made during the period
from sprouting to gold ripeness indicated that the plants in rows with a
north-south and west-east orientation were exposed to different microcli-
matic conditions. The results of ineasurement of the total solar radiation
and air temperature both in rows with different orientation of sowing and
in open sectors of fields indicate that the daytime variation of solar ra-
diation in rows with a,north-south ori:entation has two clearly expressed
maxima: the first from 0700 to 1000 hours and the second from 1500 to 1700
hours.
Converting the indices of the curve of variation of total solar radiation
to energy units, by means of computations it was established that winter
wheat plants in rows with a north-south orientation in the morning hours
(from 070~ to 1000 hours) receive an energy of 0.99 cal/cm2 per minute,
and in the evening hours (from 1500 to 1700 hours) 0.71 cal/cm2, where-
as in rows with a west-east orientation 0.40 and 0.57 cal/cm2 respective-
ly.
Accordingly, plants in rows with a north-south orientation receive an ener-
gy in th~ ~orning hours which is 2.5 times greater and in the evening hours
which is 1.3 times greater than in rows with a west-east orientation.
With an increase in solar altitude the plants in rows with a north-south
orientation exhibit a considerably slower increase in leaf temperature and
arc r,,idda.y it is usually 0.5-1.5�C lower than in rows with a west-east ori-
entation. The wind velocity in rows with a north-south orientation from 1000
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to 1700 hours attained 0.1-0.3 m/~ec, whereas in rows with a west-east ori-
, entation a cdlm was noted.
It is entirely evident that a change in solar radiation leads to a change
in air and soil temperature. As indicated by our measurements, the air
temperature curve for midday in rows with a west-east orientation rises
considerably higher than for rows with a north-soutl~ orientation, attaining
differences among the plants of 5�C, and at the soil surface greater than ~
7�C. The mean daily (from 0400 to 1900 hours) temperature in rows of plants
with a west-east orientation (27.1�C) is higher than 3n rows with a north-
south orientation (26.6�C) by 0.5�C. This difference arises due to the fact
that from 1000 to I700 hours plants in rows with a west-east orientazion
in comparison with those having a north-south orientation are at a lesser
angle of incidence to the solar rays.
All these factors (maximum content of physiologically active radiation in
the morning and evening hours and its direct access to plants, great re-
ceipts of total solar radiation, lower air and soil temperature at midday,
presence of air mass circulation, enriching plants with carbon dioxide and
increa.sing photosynthesis), characteristic for rows ~aith a north-south ori-
entation, exert a greater influence on structural elements of the wheat
yield in comparison with wheat in rows having a west-east orientati~n.
The reaction of winter wheat plants to the rays of the rising sun, that is,
to orange-red rays, is manifested as follows: the highest percentage of
ear emergence for rows of both north-south and west-east orientation be-
gins with the part of the stem turned toward sunrise. The north-south ori-
entation of the crop ensures direct access of the energy of photosynthet-
ically active radiation, whereas in rows with a west-east orientation the
plants considerably shade one another.
As noted by P. V. Denisov (1970), a study of the yield structure in turn
makes possible a more thorough understanding of~the nature of the yield, a
more complete clarification of the potentialities of individual varieties
and favors the u~:~lopment of procedures exerting a positive influence
on individual yield structura~ elements.
Table 2 gives the characteristics of individua.l structural elements of the
yield of winter wheat in dependence on orientatior of the crop rows. 17~e
data in this table, prepared using the data from our experiments carried
out in the institute's experimental field in 1974-1978, indicate that in-
dividual structural elements of the yield of winter wheat in the case of a.
_ north-south orientation of the crop rows are characterized by higher in-
dices. For example, as an average during the investigated period the num-
ber of plants remaining intact at the time of harvest, productive bushi-
ness, mass of 1,000 grains and the nwnber of grains in a wheat ear of the
Mironovskaya-808 variety were, in the case of a north-south orientation of
the rows 64X, 2.0, 35.3 g, 27 grains respectivelq, whereas in the case of
a west-east orientation - 58Z, 1.9, 33.9 g, 24 grains respectively.
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Table 2
Dependence of Structural Elements ot Y3.eId of Winter Wheat, Mironovskaya-
$08 Variety on OriEntation of Crop R,oas. Experimental Field, Agr.icul~ural
Institute, Ura1.'skaya Oblast
Op?teNraueR ll ?97~ 197~
pxp,xon rtoceea 1( 2 I 3 ~ h I g I 1 ~ 2~ 3 ~ 4 ~ 5
I -
2 Cenep-ror 51 22 27,3 l,l 3,9 63 ~ 25 31,0 1,3 13,4
3 BocTOx-aana,u 4:i 20 2:i,7 1,0 7,I GO 2;3 29,7 l,2 10,0
.P~lHOCTb 6 2 l,6 0.1 1,8 S I 2 1,3 0,1 3,4
OPNQHT34HA ll 1978 CpeAFree sa 3 rolta
pAAxon nocesa ~ 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 I 5 l 1 I 2( 3 ~ 4 I 5
~
2 Ceaep-~or 79 33 ~7,G 3,5 48,2 6~ 3~,3 2,0 23,5
3'iincTOK-aanaA 69 3U 96,2 3,4 4~1,1 58 24 33,9 1,J 20,4
4 Paseocrb 10 3 1,4 0,1 4,t o 3 1,~ 0,1 3,1
Note: 1--- percentage of plants remaining intact at harvest time, 2-- num-
ber of grains in ear, 3-- mass of 1,000 grains, 4-- productive bueni-
- ness, 5 yield, centners/hectare
KEY:
- 1. Orientation of crop rows
2. North-south
3. East-west
4. Difference
5. Average for three years
An analysis of the collected data indicated that the winter wheat plants
in rows with a north-south orientation had a better-developed leaf sur-
face and root system; in the long run this gave a higher grain yield. The
average grain yield increment for the three years {1975, 1977, 1978 see
Tab].e 2) is 3.1 centners/hectare. The more favorable the agrometeorological
conditions developed, the more effective aas the reaction of the plants to
the course of solar radiation in rows with a north-south orientation in
comparison with a west-east orientation.
For example, in 1975, an arid year with a moistening coefficient 0.1b, the
increment of the yield of winter wheafi in the case of sowing in rows with
a north-south orientation, in comgarison with a west-east orientation, was
1.8 centner/hectare. In 1977, when the moistening coefficient was 0.23, the
incr.ernent increased to 3.4 centners/hectare, whereas in 1978, a crop year
favorable with respect to agrameteorological indices, the increment in the
~ yield of the varieties Mironovskaya-808 and Yershovskaya-3 attained 4.1
centners/hectare.
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Table 3
Dependence of Yield of Winter Wheat Grain, Mironovskaya-808 Variety, on the
Orientation of Crop Rows. Sovkhoz imeni Frunze, Zelenovskiy Rayon,
Ural'skaqa Oblast
3KOH0\1114CC1:1111
flnoutaAe 4 yPo~ai~ 3~p~e~:T or ~
roA OpH2NT2Uf1A pAAKOB n~eea, npx6asKu
noceaa
1 2 =a 3 saK.,S i za 6 8 p NT- B 6nax
I f/ HC 8Y8 I Py 9
1975 ccnep-ror 1p 274 3014 11,0 876,8 7540
' socroK-sanaA lI 400 3120 7,8
rtp~~6asKa 12 3,2
1976 cesep-wr 2 56,0 28,0 6,0 52
eorro~:-sana~ 50,0 25,0
npF~6acxa 3,0
. 1977 ceaep-ar 6Ei3 6019 9,1 861,9 7 412
c;ocruK-3anaA 779 6071 ?,8
npu6aeha ~,3
' 1978 ceeep-br 1306 51075 39,! 5354,6 50 654 -
eocrox-aanaA 375 13139 35,0
npu6aeha 4,~
�Cpettxee sa cecep-br 21,8 7099,3 65 658
1975-1978 rr. cocTOK-~anaa 18,9
np,t6asxa 2,9 j
~
~
KEY: ~
1. Year 8. In centners
2. Orientation of crop rnws 9. In rubles
3. Sown area, hectares 10. North-south
4. Yield 11. East-west ~
5. Gross, centners 12. Increment ~
6. Centners/hectare 13. Average for 1975-1978
7. Economic effect from increment . i
j
The introduction of the results of our experiments with the sowing of win- '
ter wheat in rows with a north-south orientation into production work at
the sovkhoz imeni Frunze in Zelenovskiy Rayon in ~.975-1978 (Table 3) en- ~
sured a mean yield increment in-comparison with rows of a west-east ori-
entation of 2.9 centners/hectare and management without the slightest ad-
ditional expenditures during these years obtained an additianal 7,099.3
centners of high-quality grain or 65,658 poods. The effectiveness of the I
rational use of agrometeorological resources was especially manifested
in 1978 when the increment of the grain yield from each hectare was 4.1 ~
centners.
~
Thus, field plantings of winter wheat confirmed the importance of timely ~
allowance for and rational use of solar radiation in increasing grain pro- ~
duction in our zone. ' ;
~
~ i
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:.l.,l , ~:4i.... i . . ..~r:-'... ~ ..y:~., . . : . : . t-... _ . ~ . . . . . , _ . ~ . . . . ~ 1 . . .
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Summary `
1. The ~aintering of winter wheat under the coZditions prevailing in north-
west i:azakhstan with a small snow cover has a maximum dependence on the
Rum of negative mean daily sir temperatures during tne particular period.
2. With an increase in the sum of photosynthetically active radiation dur-
ing the spring-summer growing season for winter wheat, in the case of a
satisfactory moisture supply (moisture reserves in the soil greater than -
50% of the potential m,oisture or K~iBt ? 0.23)~ there is also an increase
in the grain yield. ~
3. A north-south direction of rows for the winter wheat crop is an impor-
tant agroengineering procedure for the more effective use of photosynthet-
ically active radiation for increasing the winter wheat grain yield.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Konstantinov, L. R., POGODA, POC~~VA I UROZHAY OZIMOY PSHENITSY (Weath-
er, Soil and Yield of Winter Wheat), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1978.
2. Tooming, Kh. G., SOLNECHHNIIAYA RADIATSIYA I FORMIROVANIYE UROZHAYA
(Solar Radiation and Yield Formation), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat,
1977.
3. Ulanova, Ye. S., AGROMETEOROLOGICHESKIYE U5LOVIYA I UROZHAYNOST'
OZIMOY PSHENITSY (Hydrometeorological Conditions and Winter Wheat Yield),
Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1975.
4. Shul'gin, I. A., SOLNECHNAYA RADIATSIYA I RASTENIYE (Solar Radiation
and Plants), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1967.
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_ UDC 551.553.6 ~
FREQUENCY OF OBSERVATIONS FOR COMPUTING THE PERIOD OF RECURRENCE OF
WIND VELOCITY EXCEEDING A STIPULATED LEVEL
I~oscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, Maq 80 pp 93-94
[Article by Candidate of Technical Sciences I. A. Savikovskiy, Belorussian
Territorial Hydrometeorological Center, submitted for publication 27 Aug-
ust 1979)
Abstract: The author demonstrates the incorrect-
ness of computation of the period of recurrence
T when using a great frequency of observations.
Such computations lead to T values which are too
low and which have no real meaning. The need is
pointed out for a correct definition of the con-
cept "case with a wind velocity exceeding a stip-
ulated level" and the advantages of use of diurnal
maxima. are pointed out.
[Text] In computing the probability F(u) that the wind velocity v will ex-
ceed a stipulated level u by the Ana.pol'skaya-Gandin method [1] use is
made of the totality of regularly scheduled observations. Usually F(u)
is used to compute the period of recurrence T-- the mean number of years
corresponding ~o one case with v> u: .
,
_ - - _ .
t ~ ~1~
T= _ � .
NF (u) 36S nF (r~)
Here N and n are the numbers of observations in a year and a day respective-
ly. The.authors of the method [1] stipulate that four regularly scl~eduled
observ~ations are used.
The processing of wind observations with different numbers of observation
times was carried out, in particular, by S. D. Roshinskiy and L. S. Rudo-
va [4]. They confirmed the natuxal assumption of a nondependence of F(u)
on the number of observation times (in the case of a sufficiently long
ssries). It therefore follows that it is possible to determine F(u), for
example, on the basis of four regularly scheduled observations and cal-
culate T using formula (1) for observations nade hourly, once each three
hours, etc., regardless of their actual frequency. In this case T will be
116
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;
. _
_
. : . _ � � _ , . . . _
, . . .
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inversely proportional to the frequency of observations n actopted for com-
putations. The problem arises of the choice of n.
The authors of [3, 5] advance the idea that preference should be given to
large n. It is correctly no~~d that in the case ~f small n some of the .
wind strengthenings occur between the observation times and are not taken
into account. However, it escapes their attention that in the case of a
high frequency in each interval with v> u there will be several observa-
tions, each of which in the computation of T will be incorrectly taken
into account as an individual case. (The fact that the adopted frequency -
of observations in actuality is not adhered to, but is only "fitted into
the computations," does not change matters.)
A. D. Drobyshev [3J proposes that the point of departure should be contin-
uous observations, the number of which per day is 24, divided by the averag-
ing period (in hours), in particular, 720 in the case of a two-minute per-
iod and 28,800 in the case of a three-second period (gusts). We will as-
sume that once in 100 years the velocity, measured with 3-second averag-
ing, in the course o� 5 minutes exceeds 30 m/sec. There are 100 "cases"
of exceeding of the mentioned velocity and therefore the period T of re- _
currence of v 30 m/sec is equal to 1 year. Such a T is a�purely formal
characteristic and does not nave practical meaning.
The authors of [5] propose that n= 24 or 144 (continuous observations with
10-minute averaging). In the latter case it is "recommended that there be
an increase in the calculated velocity, computed from four regularly sched-
uled observations...by 15-2Q%." This is equivalent to proposing retention
of the computed velocities o~tained for n= 4, but with a decrease of all
the corresponding T periods hy a factor of 36. In our opinion the results
of such scaling are without practical sense.
The reason for the unjustif ied use oi formula (1) is the absence of correct
definition of the concept "case with v> u," which is necessary if we use
the characteristic "mean number of years per one case." We will examine
some possible definitions.
1. A"case" means an individual observation. With n= 4 the definition is
applicable because the computed u usually do not include several observa-
tion times in a row.
2. A"case" is the time interval during which v> u persists without inter-
ruption (this "continuity" must be rationally determined). It is desirable
that the interval between observations correspond to the mean duration t
of such an interval, that is, n= 24/t. With a lesser frequency some of
the intervals will be missed, whereas with a greater frequency one case
will be noted as several. Unfortunately, in this case n will be di~ferent
for different u(and to one degree or another will be local).
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3. A"case" is a 24-hour period during which at least at some moment v> u.
- Such a definition evidently corresponds to a higher.:degrpe to practicai
requirements thaa the preceding definitions. It requires computation of
F(u) on the basis of diurnal maxima, not on the basis of regularly sched-
uled observations. Since at the present time the diurnal maximum is ob-
tained on the basis of data from continuous tracking of wind velocity,
the problem of the frequency of observations is completely eliminated. _
If u is so.great that v> u, as a rule occurring not more than one day a
month, close results should be obtained by computations using the VNIIE _
method [2], using monthly maxima.
BIBLIOGRAPHY . ,
1. Anapol'skaya, L. Ye., Gandin, L. S., "Method for Determining the Com-
puted Wind Velocities for Planning Wind Loads on Construction Jobs,"
METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hydrology), No 10, 1958. -
2. VETROVYYE NAGRU~KI VOZDUSI3NYKH LINIY II,EKTROPEREDACHI V SSSR (Wind
Loads on Overhead Electric Power Lines in the USSR), TRUDY VNIIE
(Transactions of the All-Union Scientific Research Institute of Power
_ Engineering), No 14, 1962.
3. Drobyshev, A. D., "Determination of the Stochastic Characteristics of
Wind Velocities With Different Time Averaging Using Standard Nomo -
grams," TRUDY ZSitNIGMI (Transactions of the West Siberian Scientific
Research Hydrometeorological Institute), No 39, 1978.
4. Koshinskiy, S. D., Rudova, L. S., "Dependence of Computed Wind Velocity
With a Small Guaranteed Probability on the Number of Wind Observations
Daily," TRUDY ZSRNIGMI, No 20, 1976.
5. Koshinskiy, S. D., et al., "Computation of Averaged and Instantaneous
Wind Velocities With a Small Guaranteed Probability Using Data from
Different Numbers of Daily Observations," INFORMATSIONNOYE PIS'MO
GUGMS (Information Letter of the Main,'.Administration of the Hydro-
meteorological Service), No 21, 1977.
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a.:: . . . . . . . . . . , - . . . . . . ~ ~ . ~ . . ~ . . .
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UDC 551.46:574.5
INFLUENCE OF SOME HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ON TIiE "BLOOMING" OF
_ WATER IN RESERVOIRS
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 94-96
_ [Article by Candidate of Geographical.Sciences B. I. Novikov, Hydrobiology
Institute Ukrainian Academy of Sciences]
Abstract: A study was made of the movement '
of blue-gr een algae in disperse and aggre-
gated states (spots and "blooming" fields)
under the influence of runoff and wind-in-
duced currents. It was, establ ished that with '
a wind with a velocity of 7 m/sec or more
the wave o scillations destroy the aggregates
~ of al gae and scatter them in the watex layer.
�[Teat) The problem of~regulating the quality of water in reservoirs in- '
volves a study of a complex of hydroZogical, hydrochemical and hydrobio-
logical phenomena. One of these is the mass develogment of blue-green al-
gae.-- tha "hlooming" of water, which has long attracted the attention of
_ ' researchers. The harmful effects of "blooming" include not only an unde-.
sirable change in the ecosystem of the water�body, but also a deteriora-
tion of water quality as a result of its saturation with the product~ of
_ decomposition of algae. These investigations, in which the leading role
is played by the Hydrobiology Ins,titute Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, have
yielded extensive information on the taaonomy, ecology and physiology of
algae, causing "blooming." At-the same time, it is impossible to overlook
the inadequate study of the influence of a number of abiotic factors, in-
cluding hydrometeorological factors: wind, waves, currents. Much of the
informa.tion on the influence of theae factors on the "blooming" of water
has a descriptive charac ter [l, 5, 9] . -
During the course of the entire growing period the blue-green algae are
_ in the wa,tFr in a suspended- state. Their- physiological peculiarities pre-
determine movement with the~water=masses, that is, under-the influence of
currents and wa~es. It is.known.that~a conceatration of algae with a bio-
mass .of about, 10-40 km/m3 -results in the dying of fish and Che poisoning
of water and.this is also determined by,the influence of these factors [1J.
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i
i
i
i
The objective of our study included a determination of the empirical de- (
pendences reflecting the influence of the wind (through waves and cur- ;
rents) on the concentration and distribution of blue-green algae in reser- ~
voirs. In solving the problem we used information from a series of publish- i
ed studies [1, 2, 5, 7, 8] and observational data from the hydrology and ?
algae physiology sections of the Hydrobiology Institute Ukrainian Academy ;
of Sciences in Dnepr reservoirs in different years. These materials repre- ;
sent measurements of the biomass of algae in the water surface layer and ~
at depth at perma.nent verticals and sectors, as well as wind velocities at ;
a height of Z m above the water surface. In addition, measurements were ~
made of the velocity of movement of the upper half-meter water layer with j
algae suspended in it under Che influence of a stable wind with a velocity ~
0-10 m%sec. I
i
~
Before proceeding to solution of the fundamental problem of this study, we ;
will turn our attention to still another factor acting on algae suspended i
in the water runoff currents. They are constant during the course of the ~
entire year and move the water masses of the reservoirs toward the discharge ;
structures. During the growing period the algae also move together with ~
them. Approxima.te computations for the Dnepr reservoirs reveal that with a
duration of this period of 2-3 months, with an intensity of water exchange ;
from 2 to 4 times a year, the entire volume of water with vegetating algae ;
can be discharged into the lower pool. In actuality, this does not occur ~
due to a superposing of the system of wind currents and the retention of i
algae in bays, in gulfs and on the bottom. Nevertheless, runoff currents
must be taken into account both in evaluating the total biomass of algae
in a single reservoir and in the analysis of their development in the cas-
cade. ~
~
We will ~illustrate the first in the example of the Kremenchugskoye Reser- ~
voir.~Its reach from Cherkassy city to the dam has a length of 85 km. Ac- ;
cording to data published by N. V. Pikush [4], its mean flow during the
growing season is 0.9-1.7 cm/sec or from 0.8to 1.5 km/day. In accordance
with these figures, by the end of the vegetation period the algae forming '
at the upper boundary of the reach arrive at the dam, but the interval in
the observations in adjacent reaches, equal to several days, leads to a
distorted idea concerning the distribution of algae in the water body. The
second consequence.of the runoff currents is the movement of the algae '
into the lower pool, that is, into the cascade lying below the reservoir. ~
Some of the cells perish when passing through the discharge structures, i
but not all. As a result, there can be activation of the development of ~
algae.and a broadening of the "blooming" area into the lower-lying reser- '
voir as a result of increased multiplication of these organisms in the '
water bod~ situated above; this of~en occurs in the first years of forma-
tion. For Example, a burst of "blooming" in 1967 in the Riyevskoye Reaervoir
(filled in 1966) was accompanied by an intensive development of algae in ,
the lower-lying Kremenchugskoye and Dneprodzerzhinskoye Reservoirs in ;
1968 and 1969 [2]. Such a phenomenon can be attributed to the movement of !
algae t~y runoff currents, not excluding, naturally, the influence of other ~
factors.
i
~ 120 ;
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The redistribution of blue-green algae within the reservoir occurs under
_ the active influence of wind waves and currents. These factors can be
- regarded as decisive for the aggregated phase. It is known from the pub-
lished daCa [1, 8J that "blooming" spoi`s and fields are formed and persist
only when there is a weak wind and in a calm. Mpst of the algae (80-95%)
in these formations are concentrated in the upper half-meter water layer.
But specifically this layer is also under the direct influence of wind-
induced flows. An investigation of the character of its movement indicat-
ed that within the limits of the open water body the direction of movement
deviates from the wind direction by not.more than 5-10� and only with entry
into the shallow-water zone along the shore forms a cirGulation, as we in-
vestigated before [3]. For an open water body and a range of wind velocity
0-IO m/sec, using observational data, we derived an empirical dependence
described by the equation
tia~ = 2,3 lV - 0.5.
where v~.5 is tY?e velocity of_movement of the upper half-meter water layer,
cm/sec; W is wind velocity at a height of 2 m above the surface, m/sec.
The correlation coefficient is equal to 0.72; the error with a guaranteed
probability 99% does not exceed 1.2 cm/sec.
With a wind velocity of 5 m.the movement of the algae is 8.5-10.5 km/day,
which coincides with the already kno.wn data [4],and a velocity of 0.22 m/
sec is probably expended on overcoming layer viscosity. Checking of the
equation by .special intersections of navigational ma.rkers in the Ka.nevskoye
Reservoir indicated that the equation corresponds we11 to the velocity of
1 drift of "blooming" spots and fields. �
The concentration of algae in the upper ~ialf-meter water layer is retained
in calm weather and when there is a weak wind. With an intensification of
the wind the wave oscillations~destroy the algae aggregates and scatter
their colonies and cells within the Iimits of the layer affected by these
oscillations. Observational data registered in Dnepr reservoirs were used
in writing empirical expressions characterizing the process of scattering
of algae at different wind velocities for both ordinary and aggregate
states. The first dependence.,was..derived for an open water body with depChs ~
greater than 6 m, has a power-law character and and is represented below.
Relat.ive Concentration (B) of~.Blue-Green Algae in Upper Water Layer for
Different Wind Velocities (W)
W m/sec Calm 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8- 10
B% 82 51 3S ,.26 18 13 10 8 6 6
In accordance with.these data,.when there is a calm in the upper water lay-
er there is concentration of an average of 82% of the entire quantity of
al_,ae at the vertical, whereas with a wind greater than 6 m/sec less than
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10% of them remain. In the case of an aggregated state of the algae ("bloom-
ing" spots and fields) the algae are concentrated in the upper half-meter
water layer and a wind intensification lessens the concentration in ac-
cordance with the equation -
B~ f.3~~ ~~,Sn - 0,12 lV),
where B~,1 and B~ is the quantity of algae g/m3 with a wind W m/sec and with
a calm (initial concentration). The.correlation coefficient of the equation
is 0.82 with a reliability 0.99. It must be emphasized that both dependences
were derived using data obtained with a wind not greater.than 10 m/sec, that
is, they have limited applicability.
The_results of this investigation can be formulated as follows:
1. Runoff currents are an important factor in the dynamics of blue-green
algae both within the limits of one reservoir and in the cascade.
2. The concentration of algae, including their aggregation in the surface '
layer in the form of "blooming" spots and fields, is reduced with an in-
crease in wind velocity. With a value of the latter 7 m/sec or more the ~
algae are uniformly scattered in the water layer.
3. The nonuniformity of distribution of algae over the surface of the res-
ervoir is related to wind currents which with a wind velocity of 5 m/sec
can move the algae 8.5-10.5 km/day.
We note in conclusion that~the reaults presented above are only a first at-
tempt at a quantitative evaluation of the effect of some hydrometeorolog-
ical factors on the "blooming" of water in reservoirs. It is obvious that
the formulation of broader complex investigatidns will make it possible to ~
refine and broaden the described peculiarities of ,the wind effect mechanism
and also to obtain new inFu~rmation on other-factors. This will make it pos-
sible to clarify an important aspect of monitoring of the quality of the
environment the water "blooming" problem.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Braginskiy, L. P., et al., "'Blooming Spots,' Wind-Driven Water Masses,
. Outbreaks of Blue-Green Algae and the'Biological Processes Transpiring
in 'i'hem," "TSVETENIYE" VODY (Water "Blooming"), Kiev, Naukova Dumka,
1968. .
2. Guseva, K. A., et al., "Intensity of 'Blooming' and Times of Mass Vege-
tation of Blue-Green Algae in Reservoirs of Hydroelectric Power Sta-
_ tions in the USSR," FORMIROVANIYE I KONTROL~ KACHESTVA POVERKHNOSTNYKH
VOD (Formation and Monitoring of the Quality of Surface Waters), Kiev,
Naukova Dumka, No 2, 1976.
122
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. . . . . . . _ . _ . , _ _ _
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3. Novikov, B. N., "Wind Currents in an Unclosed Shallow-Water Sector
of a Water Body," METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology and Hy-
drology), No 11, 1976.
4. Pikush, N. V., "Hydrological Investigations of Reservoirs on the
Dnepr," VESTNIK AN UkrSSR (Herald of the Ukrainian Academy of Sci-
ences), No 2, 1965. `
5. Priymachenko, A. D., Litvinova, M. A., "Distribution and Dynamics of
Blue-Green Algae in Dnepr Reaervoirs," "TSVETENIYE" VODY, Kiev, Nauk-
ova Dumka, 1968.
6. Priymachenko, A. D., "Factors Determining Che Productivity of Slue-
Green Algae in Dnepr Reservoirs," FORMIROVANIYE I KONTROL' KACHESTVA
POVERKHNOSTNYKH VOD, Kiev, Naukova Dumka, No 2, 1976. -
7. Priymachenko, A. D., "Phytoplankton of Gor'kovskoye Reservoir During the
First Years of its Existence (1956-1957)," TRUDY IBW [Expansion Un-
knownJ, 4(7), 1961.
S. Sirenko, L. A., Gavrilenko, M. Ya., "TSVETENIYE" VODY I EVTROFIROVAN-
IYE ("Blooming" of Water and Eutrophic SCudies), Kiev, Naukova Dumka, ~
1978.
9. Tseyeb, Ya. Ya., Litvinova, M. V., Gusinskaya, S. D., "Quantitative Dy-
namics of Plankton Blue-Green Algae in Relation to Their Influence on
the Numbers and Distribution of Zooplankton in the Kakhovskoye Reser-
voir," EKOLOGIYA I FI2IOLOGIYA SINE-ZELENYRH VODOROSLEY (Ecology and
Physiology of Blue-Green Algae), Mnscow-Leningrad, 1965.
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- UDC ~551.508.7
MEASUREMENT OF INTEGRAL HUMIDITY BY AN OPTICAL METHOD
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, Ma.y 80 pp 97-101
[Article by V. N. Narichev, Institute of �Atmospheric Optics Siberian Depart-
ment USSR Academy af 3ciences, submitted for publication 11 September 1979]
Abstract: The article describes measurement.of
integral humidity along a surface path by an
optical method in the IR range. Problems in-
volved in the choice of the optimum parameters .
of an optical hygrometer; its calibration and
measurement accuracy are discussed. A compar-
- ison of data obtained using an optical hygro-
meter and psychrometers set up at the ends of
the path is given. i
~[Text] The water present in the atmosphere determines its thermal regime ~
and the dynamics~of atmospheric processes and is one of the fundamental . I
factors in planetary weather formation. It is therefore easy to under- :
stand the enormous interest which is manifested in study of the dynamic ~
characteristics of,._atmospheric ~isture content. For~example, the suthors of ~
[1, 2, 1(~] carried out investigations of the moisture content of the entire ~
thickness of the atmosphere uader different meteorological conditiona and .
at different latitudes and its relationship to surface humidity, and also _ i
give a review and analysis of a number of other studies made of this prob- ;
lem. However, an important aspect is a determination of the integral mois-
ture content on surface paths. This is necessary in solving such probleme ,j
as investigation of the characteristics of humidity in the surface air lay-
er, remote monitoring of the humidity level over soils, evaluation of the
influence of the water vapor concentration on the attenuation of optical,
radiation and the calibration of ineteorological lidars. '
A model of instrumentation making it possible to determine the integral ~
content of atmospheric water vapor on a horizontal path was developed for i
these purposes. The principle for determining moisture content is based on
I
.
i
124 ~ .
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY i
a-~ ,~.b;,~:~.;~i ~:~;ua.,...rs;.: .~,_.~,a:,:~.t ,.t,,:... t ;2 . r _ �,,.~......,.n, this is easily described by the following rules:
' 139
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~COMMiTNICATION> . . _ ~ . . _ � ~ TEXT>
< TEXT > . . _ ~ < END ~
~ E~ ~ . : _ ~ , where � is an empty symbol
Combining these rules with the preceding ones (1)-(4), we obtain rules de-
scribing a part of the communication, and also the empty communicatioas.
In accordance with the algorithm for constructing the diagram using a reg-
ular grammar and taking into account the considerations concerning an in-
finite line, we can construct a new diagram. T'he chains of inscriptions
along the paths through this diagram will correspond to the sequences of
lines of communications in which the absence of some constructions is allora-
ed. In addition, this diagram eliminates the problem of synchronization of
activation of the automatic element and delivery of the initial line. In
other words, the automatic element can begin the processing of an infinite
line from any place to the right, provided that unexpected constructions
do not appear.
Now we wish to allow in the initial line such constructions which were not
provided for by the rules of the constructed grammar. In other words, we
will allow commentaries between the constructions in an infinite chain of
communications. For this purpose we will considerably complicate the auto-
matic element, adding two new components to it: a memorq and a counter.
Now we will assume that it is possible in some way to store, finish regis-
, try and erase the final chains in the memory. Any process of finishing of
registry involves the splicing of a new chain with the old from the right.
� The erasure process relates to the right part of the chain in the memory;
in pTace of the erased part there is a special chain in the memory the
initial symbol for the memorq. We stipulate more precisely tha.t the non-
empty chain in the memory consists of the initial line, heading and text;
in addition, there`is one initial memory symbol for the initial line
ZCZC 333 and one for the heading:
X~~/ / }CXXX / / / / / .
The operation of an automa.tic element with a memory is characterized by
cycles. The automatic element performs a series of cycles for each symbol .
in the input chain. Each cycle corresponds to a transition from state to
state and some operation in the memarq with the chain present there. This
operation may be finishing of registry, erasure or both together. ~
Now we will describe the cycles of automatic element operation. As soon as
the automatic element receives the new input.symbol the counter assumes
the value 4. Then if the result of analysis of the input symbol is negative
we subtra~ct unity from the~counter and check the result; if the result is
equal to`~ero, the input symbol is entered in the memory and we proceed to
the next symbol in the input chain; if the result is non-zero, we register
an empty symbol in the memory and change the state of the automatic element
in accardance with the diagram (block diagram). Prdceeding to a new state,
_ , 140
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. <
. .
. . . ~ . v. ;2
s~i;r.l~+ew..~s+�v..z;:.:, ~,...c..:t;.,_~~.., ~w~:~.s-~~.....,.~_".:.a_~ ~a.:::s.,,, . . , , . . .
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the automatic element performs similar operations with the sole difference
that the counter value has already decreased. Now we will assume that the
result of analysis of the input symbol is positive or th~.t the automatic
element has identified this symboS. In such a case we must examine five
variants corresponding to the principal elements of the communication (see
C1o~)�
If the initial line is iden~ified, then the entire chain in the memory is
erased and two initial symbols are registered. The initial Iine is regis-
tered over the first initial symbol. The automatic element shifts into a
state "Identification of Heading."
If the heading.is identified, tlie right part is erased in the memory, be-
ginning witb the heading. Th~en the new heading is registered. The automatic
element passes into tfie state `rldentifieation of Bcil.letin Text." If a com-
mon block is identified, the entire text is erased and the common block 3.s
registered in its place. The 'state is not changed.
If the beginning of tlie~felegram is identified, a speci~l symbol is also
registered in the~memory the end of the telegram, when there is an un-
ended telegram in"the memory. ~'hen the found telegram is completely regis-
, tered. If, in the identified telegram the spmbol for the end of the tele- .
~ gram is also found, there is a shift to the state "Identification of End."
' Otherwise the state is riot changed.
If the end is'found, the signal for the end is fully registered; then all
the memory is emptied [4]. Thereafter, the first and second initial symbols
are registered in it again and the automatic element passe~ into the ini-
tial state "Identification of the Initial Line."
Thus, we have described an automatic e~ement with a memory and a counter.
We note that in place of a counter it suffices to.have final entry of some
_ four memory symbols, for example in place of subtraction of unity
_ the erasure of the symbol farthest to the right; and in place of a re-
action to zero reaction to the absence of this symbol in the memory.
Figure 2 is a diagram of the transitions of the considered automatic e1e-
ment. The symbols "~'1" in the dia.gram denote the procedure of erasure of
the memory symbol ~ in-the case of unsuccessful identification.
Now it can be seen that this automatic element cannot be "cycled" when pro-
cessing an unfamiliar input~symbol. Receiving such a symbol in any state,
the automatic element makes all possible attempts at its identificatian.
Finally this symbol is regi~tered in the memory and the automatic element
is returned to the initial state. Thus, the automatic element is not Gens-
itive to the different commentaries between the communication constructions.
141
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2 +
, OnaaNUQasue
~ ~aaoncexc ~ �
NcvanbNap
~ cmpoxa 1
- + ,7aannnQoX 3
rab 4 4
+ '
~ / ' . -x
T
O;.aaxa8axu On~3yoDaHUe
Il=y(!/IbNO![ Barxoa TenezpaM~a mencma 06wuu: ~
5 ~ cmpoKU 6 7 6wa~emaxa 6nna
~ + g + q .
"-n +
_ +
_ ~~b 4 4 'e~b
- , , + .
- .
CuzHaA ~ Ono3wa~aHUe '
10 rQxua 11 .
Keaya
+ .
Fig. 2. Diagram of tranaitions for automatic element with memory.
KEY:
l. Initial lina 7. Telegram
2. Identification of heading 8. Identification of bulletin text .
3. Heading 9. Common block
4. there is... 10. Signal for end ~
5. Identification of initial line 11. Identification of end
6. Output
Thus, the automatic element correctly identifies any sequence of communica-
tion constr~i~ctions, including arb3trary texts. As a result, on the ba~is
of the iz2put chain of communications, from parts of communications alternat- ~
ing with drbitrary texts, this automatic ~el.ement constructs an output chain
of properly formulated commnunications. To be sure, for many.communications .
received in this way there is a coinc idence of the initial Iines or head-~
ings, but on the other hand, from the syntaxis point of v3.ew, they do not~-
contain errars and they can be identified by the final automatic element
which is constructed at the very beginning.
Therefore, we constructed a"determined" automatic element with a modular
me~ry j4J which identifies any correctly formed communication's and cor-
rects coinmtunications with grammatical errors. It should be noted that for
_ � 142
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.
. ,
~ ,
, . . . . . ~
,
, ...t . . : . ; . . . ~
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identification of correct comarunications it was sufficient to have a final
automatic element.
Applicable to the processing of ineteorological data reaching the electronic
computer through communication channels, such an automatic element solves
the problem of control of processing of communications (suitable for tele-
communication methods) and control of processing of telegrams for systems
for the primary processing of ineteorological data. This automatic element
is particularly useful in organizing the operation of a communications com-
puter in a telecommunieation complex accomplishing the automatic collection
and transmission of data.
- The basic principles for the design of an automatic element with a memory
were successfully used in the primary processing system of a programming- -
instrument comp3.ex; the full construction of the automatic element was
realized in FORTRAN IV for the primary processing system using a YeS elec-
tronic computer.
, The author expresses appreciation to S. D. Ashkinazi and N. Z. Volchkina
for much work in the grogramming of these constructions.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Belousov, S. L., "Automation of Processing of Operational Information
of Aerological 5tations in the Soviet Union," 1'RUDY MMTs (Transactions
_ of the Moscow Meteorological Center), No 7, 19b5.
2. Belousov, S. L., Gandin, L. S., Mashkovich, S. A., OBRABOTKA OPERATIVNOY
METEOROLOGICHESKOY INFORMATSII S POMOSHCH'YU ELEKTRONNYHIi VYCHISLITEL'-
NYKH ?~fASHIN (Processing of Operational Meteorological Informa.tion Using
Electronic Computers), T~eningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1968.
3. Birkgof, G., Barti, T., SOVRIIKENNAYA PR~KLADNAYA ALGEBRA (Modern Ap-
plied Algebra), Moscow, Mir, 1976.
4. Ginzburg, S., MATEMATICHESKAYA TEORIYA KONTERSTNO-SVOBODNYKH YAZYROV
(Mathematical Theory of Context-Free Languages), Moscow, Mir, 1970.
5. Gris, D., KONSTRUIROVANIYE K(?MPILYATOROV DLYA ~SIFROVYKH VYCHISLITEL'-
NYKH MASHIN. (Designing of Compilators for Digital Com~uters), Nloscow, ~
Mir, 1975.
6. Kartasheva, M. V., Popo.va, T. V., "Principles for Constructing a Pro-
gram.for Sampling Synoptic Telegrams from a Common Flow of Meteorolog-
ical Information," .TRiJDY GZDROII~fE~TSENTRA SSSR (Transactions of the USSR -
Hydrometeorolog~:ca1 CenCer), No 1, 1967.
7. Kastin, 0. M., Semendqayev, K. A., SISTEMA PERVICHNOY OBRABOTKI METEOR-
~JLOGICHESKOY IDTFJRMAT5IT {System for the Erimary Processing of Meteoro-
logical Infozmation), Moscow, Gidrometeoizdat, 1973.
143
~ FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
~ ~ ~r,~ r :rA
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8. NASTAVLENIYE PO GLOBAL'NOY SISTEME TELESVYAZI (Instructions on a
Global Telecommunications System), No 386, Vol 1, Geneva, 1974.
9. NASTAVLENIYE PO KODAM (Instructions on Codes), No 306, Geneva, Vol 1,
1974 .
10. Shmel'kin, Yu. L., "Formal Generating Grammar of a Language for Trans-
mitting Meteorological Information," EKSPRESS-INFORMATSIYA (Express
Information), Obninsk, VNIIGMI-MTsD, No 3(51), 1977.
11. Bedient, H. A., Cressman, G. P., "An Experiment in Automatic Data Pro- -
cessing," MON. WEATHER REV,, Vol 85, No 10, 1957.
12. Hinkelmann, K. H., "Automatic Data Processing of Synoptic and Upper Air
Reports," WMO. Regional.Training Seminar of Numerical Weather Predic-
tion, Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, 1969.
144
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UDC 551.509.615
CLEARING OF WARM FOGS USING ARTIFICIAL HEAT SOURCES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 108-115
[Article by Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences I. M. Zakha-
rova, Institute of Experimental Meteorology, submitted for publication
15 November 1979]
Abstract: The author reviews the principal re-
sults of eaperimental and ninnerical study of
the possibility of clearing of a warm fog us-
i ing artificial heat sources. The article de-
scribes the thermal systems used in Japan,
France (Orly and Charles de Gaulle airports)
and in the United States at Vandenberg, Travis
a and Otis Air Force Bases. The review gives an
analysis of the influence exerted by the pro-
duced heat on the clearing of a fog, the influ-
ence of the wind on the behavior of the warm
current and its characteristics. The increase
in the turbulence level as a result of the ac-
tion of thermal systems is analyzed. The prob-
lems involved in evaluating energy expended
on the scattering of a fog by the u~e of ther-
mal systems are considered. The economic ef-
fectiveness of thermal systems for the scatter-
. ing of a fog is demonstrated,
[Text] During recent years, when there has been a strong increase in the
intensi~y of a'ir traffic, the problem of finding successful methods for
fog dispersal has become especially acute.
The thermal method is directed to the evaporation of fog droplets by an
increase in temperature in the volume to be cleared by means of artif- ~
icial heat sources. The systems scattering a fog must be compatible with
- automatic landing systems: With respect to.conditions for visihility at
the earth's surfa~e the International Civi]. Aviation Organization (ICAO) ~
has established three categories'of ~omplexitq in executing an automatic
. landing: with respect to height ther.e are three categories 6U m(cate-
gary 30 m~-(categorq II) and 0 m(category III) and with respect to
145
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~
~
~
horizontal visibility 80f1 m(category T), 400 m(category II) and 200, ~
50 and 0 m (IIIA, IIIB and IIIC) [6]. Thermal systems are used in clear- i
ing a fog in cleared zones to the limiting (or greater) visibility ranges. ~
History of Development of Thermal Sqstems for Fog Dispersal , (
The first mention of the Euccessful use of the thermal method for fog dis- ~I
persal dates back to 1935 [14]. The practical use of this method began 1
during the Second World War in Great Britain, where thermal systems call- !
ed FIDO were installed at 15 airports. Fuel was fed through lines along
the runways. This fuel was burned when it flowed through sma11 openings I
in the pipes. By the end of the war 10,000 landings had been made using
FIDO [33] .
The FIDO system was developed further in the United States from 1946 ~
through 1950. By the use of an improved FIDO system at the Arcata base it ;
was possibl e to carry out aircraft landings with minimtmm visibility in !
dense fog in 94X of all the cases which were checked out [33]. However, ~
due to the fact that no optimum variant had been developed for the place- I
ment of the burners and their intensity, in some eases it was not pos-
sible to disperse fog to the necessary visibility. As a result of. the
high cost of the chermal systems and their inadQquate effectiveness, in -
1953 the practical use of FIDO systems was abandoned. It was concluded '
by USAF representatives that the use of the exhaust heat of a 3et engine ~
can be more effective and economical than the use of the FIDO system [9]. ;
We note, to be sure, that a system using jet engines in tests in Alaska '
gave no effect in the case of ice fogs [33]. j
In 1958 it was established that this technique can be used in the disper- ~
sal of Frarm fogs. Intensive tests carried out in the 1960's in France ;
jointly by Bertain, Air France and Air Inter at Orly airport led to the
creation of a system suitable for practical use of the system called the '
"Turboclair" [16, 17, 19, 20, 28, 32]. ~
In 1968, in California, experiments were carried out by specialists at the ~
Travis Air Force Base by the United States Weather Service using four mil- j
itary aircraft of the C-141 type [10, 1 2, 13], which once again demon- '
strated the possibilitiea of this method. Iiowever, it,was noted that the i
clearings produced after the engines were cut off close in rapidly: vis- `
ibility had already fallen to the initial level within two minutes. ~ !
In investigations of the thermal method carried out in the 1960's in Japan i
[5] particular attention was given to the construction of burners capable ;
of complete combustion of a large quantity of propane gas at a high rate. ~
Burners with a combustion of 2.5 kg of gas per minute were designed. ~
. i
The most extensive series of tests of the theraial method for fog dispersal ~
wit~ the use of burners was carried out in 1972 in the United States in I
California at Vandenberg AFB under the direction of the Cambridge Research ;
~
~ 146 ' '
i
~
i
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;
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~
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Laboratory [22, 23, 27] . The purpose of the tests was the development of
a thermal system based on the controllable merging of the heat from a
stream of burners arranged in a defin~te order in order to obtain a uni-
formly heated mass of pure air over the airport runway. Model computa-
tions [21, 22J helped in detecting the optimum intenaity and diatribution
of burners required for obtaining a clearing suitable for landings and
takeoffs under different meteorological conditions. When carrying out
_ field tes~s particular attention was devoted to an experimental determin-
ation of the optimum intensity and positioning of the burners, determina-
tion of the physical and dynamic properties of the formed clear9ngs and
clarification of the influence of ineteorological conditions on the behav-
ior of ;.he warm current and its characteristics .
carly in 1973 the Cambridge Laboratory began investigations for the purpose
of creatZng the prototype of an operational thermal system for the disper-
sal of fog at Travis AFB [29]. Serious climatic and meteorological :Lnves-
tigations [33-35 ] were carried out which made it possible to ascertain the
periods of the greatest frequency of fogs in this locality and the meteor-
ological conditions characteristic for these periods, especially the most
probable wind strengths and directions. A comparison of data on air traf-
fic at Travis AFB with statistical data on fogs, as well as the cost of
the dispersal system with the losses as a result of disrupti.ons and the
suspensions of flights made it possible to document the economic effective-
ness of using a thermal system [29, 33] .
The testing and ad~ustment of this system was to have been completed in -
five years, However, informatiore appearing on the thermal system at Otis
AFB [24J gives basis for assuming thar the researchers of the USAF Geo-
physical Laboratory (earlier called the Cambridge Research Laboratory)
have decided on a variant for the combined use of thermal and kinetic ener-
gy. Thermokinetic energy is created by the burners by the combustion of
aviation fuel and the propulsion of a hot current by means of kinetic en-
ergy fans. Tn the course of testing of this system during 1978-1979 it
was proposed that optimum parameters of the system be developed in depen-
dence on meteorological conditions and studies be made of effectiveness of
operation of the apparatus, the reliability of equipment operation and
that the possibility of carrying out of repair work be checked. Upon suc-
cessful completion of the tests the system for the dispersal of warm fogs -
tcill be installed at a United States Air Force base and will begixi to op-
_ erate in 1982.
Description of Thermal Systems Used and Results of Field Experiments
A thermal system for fog dispersal consists of four subsystems [29): heat
source~ (burr_ers or jet engines arranged in a definite way ne~r tlie runway);
fuel sto�rage unit; system for distributing the fuel from the storage unit
to the heat sources and a control-measuring system. The princi.pal require-
ments imposed on the system as a whole and therefore on each of the subsys-
tems are reliability and safety, absence of contaminants and efficier.:cy.
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We note that the thermal systems in Japan and in the United Sr.ates at
Vandenberg AFB had a purely research character. In France there I.s an
operational system used in fog dispersal at Orly and Charles de Gaulle air-
ports. The designs of the systems at Travis and Otis Air Force Bases are
prototypes of operational systems.
Seven experiments were carried out in Japan in 1963 near Chitose airport.
Five of these were in advective fogs of marine origin and two were in a
radiation fog; there was a control experiment in the absence of fog [15].
The wind velocity in these experiments did not exceed 3 m/sec; the wind
direction in advective fogs was always oblique to the runway. In a radia-
tion fog there was a very weak wind with a velocity of about l m/sec; the
direction, however, was parallel to the runway.
The fuel used was propane so that there would be complete combustion in _
the burners. The constructed burners were capable of complete combustion
of 2.5 kg of gas fed under a pressure of 6 atm for 1 minute. A hundred
burners were situated on either side of the runway for a distance of 500 -
m. The propane w,is stored in the liquid phase in 10 tanks, each with a
capacity of 500 kg.
The experiments provided for the measurement of air temperature and humid- I
ity, wind d irection and velocity, horizontal and slant visibility, concen- ~
tration of droplets and their size distribution.
;
The experiments carried out in a fog indicated tnat with the operation of ~
all burners for a period of 5 minutes the visi~rility improved in compari-
son with the initial level by a factor of two, from 100-400 to 250-800 m;
the temperature increased by approxima.tely 0.5�C; the relative humidity ~
either decreased by several percent or remained constant; the concentra- ?
tion of droplets decreased by almost half; the maximum diameter`of the ~
droplets decreased from 45 to 35�.m. ~
~
Researchers attribute the observed decrease in the anticipated results ~
of the modification f irst of all to a decrease in the rate of combustion !
due to a pressure drop in the storage tanks and second, to a wind direc- j
tion oblique to the runway. These experiments enabled the authors to con- '
clude that the therma.l method for fog dispersal, with some improvements ~
in the system, must be used. i
The French "Turboclair" system [16, 17, 19, 20, 28, 32] consists of 12 3et +
engines placed at 80-m intervals in the landing zone,�then 120 m along the
runway. Each engine is situated in its own underground chamber, covered by ~
a heavy cast iron grating iki order to ensure safety during the~landings of ~
aircraf t. The heat from the engine exhaust pipe is directed toward the '
surface thro ugh a vertical channel where the hot gases by means of reflec- ~
tors are directed Coward the runway. The fuel is fed to all the engines from
a single tank buried in the ground at some distance from the runway. Each
engine is supplied with an automatic firing device and remote control. The j
_ i.
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latter corrects the heat being produced and orientation of the reflectors.
The engines can be fired both individually and all simultaneously. When the
jet engine is operating at full power the escape velocity of the hot gas
is about 500 m/sec at a temperature of about 500�C [32] (about 600�C [20]).
However, diffusing and mixing with the surrounding unheated air, the hot
gases increase the temperature of the space occupied by the fog by 2-3�C,
` which is entirely adequate for the e~raporation of droplets. The apparatus
was cagable of improvtng visibility from a point situated approximately
600 m from a landing point, and then for a distance of 600 m alor~g the
runway and guaranteed the successfui completion of a landing in categories
II and IIIA in an instrument approach.
In order to clear a fog over a runway five minutes must elapse from the
time when the engines are started. With a decrease in engine power to oper-
ation at an idle the visibility deteriorates and after 1.5 minutes its
background level is restored.
The greatest shortcoming associated w3th the use of. ~et engines as heat
sources in a system scattering a fog is the great turbulence of the Iower
layer of the atmosphere with a thickness somewtuit greater than 15 m. The
turbulnnce exerts a strong influence on small aircraft and also on sysfiens
for automatic landing. For example, the Sud Ler autom,atic landing system
used in Air Inter aireraft was very sensitive to turbr'ence.
The "Turboclair" system was discussed by three p~rsons. Accordi,zg to [33],
the installation of a"Turboclair" system cost 3 million dollars and its
operation cost about $3,400 per hour.
The thermal system at Vandenberg base j21-23, 25.] had a purely research
character and therefore the carrying out of the tests was planned with min-
imum expenditures directly on the thermal system and with great capital in-
vestment on the instrumental outfitting of the experiments. The system con-
sisted of four parallel lizes of liquid propane burners oriented perpendic- -
ular to the prevailing wind direction. Liquid propane was fed to all 213
burners from four tanks with a capacity af 22,500 Iiters each. The burners
were of different size.
The heating system must create a clearing of the fog when there is a con-
siderable wind in the range 1.5-4.5 m/sec in a region with a width of 120
m and a height up to 60 m in the neighborhood of the instrument tower.
In order to investigate the in~luence of the produced heat and the posi-
tioning of the burners on clearing of the fog the design of the system
provided for the possibilitq of shutting off the individual burners and
combining burners into groups of four.
The control-measuring system consisred of a 60-m instrument tower, two con-
trol towers on the windward and leeward sides of the line of burners and a
1:i~`~*r� The instrumE:rtation installed on the kowers made it possible to
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measure temperature, dew point, wind velocity and direction, vertical
component of wind velocity, visibility, liquid-water content af a fog and
the droplet-size distribution. Using a lidar it was possible to determine
~ visibility profiles in the entire extent of the warm current and also the
distribution of visibility in the cross section of the current. During a
six-week field program measurements were made in 14 fogs, in five of which
43 experiments were carried out with dispersal and 96 checks were carried
out in the pure air. The duration of each experiment was 10-15 minutes.
The experiments carried out at Vandenberg Air Force Base with thermal modif-
ication of a fog when there was a wind intersecting the runway enabled the
researchers to draw some important conclusions.
In a case when the wind component intersecting the runway is greater than
1.5 m/sec it is sufficient to have one line of burners on the windward
side in order to create the necessary improvement of visibility over the
runway. When the velocity of the wind intersecting the runway is less
than 1.5 m/sec it is necessary to place the burr.ers along the sides of the
~ runway, as was done in the FIDG system, or to create a mechanically moving .
thermal system.
The clearings created by the experimental system, as a result of the incom-
plete evaporation of fog droplets due to the spatially nonuniform movement
of warm currents,were characterized by�high-frequency fluctuations of vis- �
ibility. However, the fog patches situated in the cleared region shouY.d not
seriously worsen the pilot's view when coming in for a Ianding.
The degree of clearing is hl.ghly dependent on the heat intensity. In field
experiments it was possible to create conditions corresponding to automatic
landings of categories of complexity II and IIIA. Landing conditions of cat-
egory I can be achieved with an increase in the heat produced by the burn-
ers by a factor of 2.1 in comparison with the necessary heat for a category
' II landing and by a factor of 3.5 in comparison with a category III landing.
.
The wind velo~ity exerts a substantial influence on the vertical distribu-
tion of heat. With an intensification of wind velocity the current becomes
thinner and is bent toward the earth. With wind velocities greater than 2
m/sec the maximum temperature increase occurs at the earth. With V< 1.5 m/
sec the warm currents rather rapidly rise upward and the maximum is at
higher levels. With wind velocities between 1.5 and 2 m/sec the maximum
clearing was above the earth, but a considerable improvement in visib~ility
was also observed at the ground level. With winds greater than 4 m/sec the "
upper boundary of the current did not at~ain 60 m with the available heat. '
.
The efficiency of the experimental thermal system was considerably lower
than 100y because, first of all, a greater quantity of heat is required
in order to evaporate the droplets in the required time, and second, the
~ produced heat is propagated nonuniformly in space. The turbulence generated
by the thermal system is~of the same order of magnitude as that measured at
' ~ hot summer midday and therefore it should not create any difficulties during
aircraft landings and takeoffs.
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Energy and Economic Expenditures on Fog Dispersal Using the Thermal Method
The quantity of heat which must be introduced into some volume in order to
evaporate fog droplets and prevent the reverse condensation of water vapor
can be computed as a function of the liquid-water content of the fog and
ambient temperature. However, the values obtained in this case wi11 be
minima [33], since, first of all, in actual practice it is necessary that
although the fog droplets need not necessarily be evaporated completely,
it must be done rapidly. Second, with the combustion of fuel an additional _
quantity of vapor enters the air and at a constant temperature this incre,as-
� es relative air humidity. Third, the computations are made on the assump~
tinn of ~ uniform spatial distribution of heat. All this iiYCreases the
quant~ty of heat required for clearing a particular volume. The actual
quantity of heat which the thermal system must generate must be still
greater in order to compensate the heat losses due to wind velocity and
edge effects. In thsoretical evaluations of the required energy expendi-
tures it is possible to take into account the influence of the water vapor
formed during fuel combustion and the wind, but the influence of the non-
uniformity in the distribution of heat and heat losses due to edge effects
cannot be evaluated on a practical basis. Accordingly, a final evaluation
of the energy expenditures can be obtained only experimentally.
As a comparison, the table gives the energy expenditures in an operational
thermal system capable of improving visibility to operational levels ac-
cording to the estimates of different authors (scaled to kerosene, whose
heat-generating capacity is 104 cal/g). The energy expenditures pertaining
to the systems installed at the Orly and Los Angeles airports represent
the real expenditures. It must be noted that the system installed at Los .
Angeles is oId (1949), a slightly improved "FIDO" system. Evaluations of
the energy expenditures published in [33] and [15] were based on eaxlier
experimental investigations. '
.
Ir. order to evaluate the economic effectiveness of the thermal system it
is necessary to compare the total cost of the system (including the cost
of its operation) and the losses which are experienced by the airport at
which the particular system is installed due to the closing-in of a fog,
for example, in the course of a year. The annual cost of system operation
must include amartixation costs, costs of repair and fuel. In order to
estimate the cost of the fueJ_ exp~nded by the system in the course of a
year it is necessary to know the number of hours of system operation an-
_ nually. This requires a determination of the number of flights affected
annually by a fog. Thus, an evaluation of the economic effectiveness must
be preceded by investigations of ineteozological conditions at the airport,
analysis of the air traff~c sehedule and evaluation of the cost of the sys-
tem (cap.ita:~ investm~nts, expenditures on installation and adjustment of
the system).
The aucnors of [11, 29, 33-35] eatablished the cause-and-effect relation-
ships between the appearance of a�og and the~decrease in air traffic and
1e~F,�riuined tYie r~uml~er of flights influenced by fog at Travis AFB [33],
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at 15 air� force bases in Europe and America and at the civilian airport in
Los Angeles (LAX) [34,35] and at 41 civilian airports in the United States
[11J. It was found that a fog affects 0.8-2% of the flights in the United
States and 5-7% of the flights in Europe in an average fog year. Since a
fog is a seasonal phenomenon, in munths with the greatest frequency of
occurrence of a fog from 5 to 15% of the flights are subjected to its in-
fluence in an average fog year and more than 40% in an extremely foggq
year.
Source [29], giving the results of investigations published in [11, 33,
35], presents an evaluation of the economic effectiveness of the thermal
system for the large civilian airport LAX. The planned installation cost
for the thermal system was 6.5 million dollars. The annual cost of opera-
tion of the system, including amortization costs (10%), repair (1%) and
fuel was 1.465 million doll`ars in 1973 and will be 1.627 million dollars
_ in 1981. The annual losses due to disruption of air traffic were 8.0 mil-
lion dollars in 1973 and will increase to 24.0 million dollars in 1981.
Source [29] gives a comparison of the average cost per aircraft for op-
eration of the system and the average losses per aircraft. The ratio of
these figures is l to 6 in 1973 and 1 to 20 i.n 1981. ,
� According to the estimates [11, 29], the losses in annual income by trans-
port aircraft (first and second levels) at 41 main a~rports in the United
States as a result of fogs~were 25.5 million do?lars in 1971 and wi11 be �
about 93.2 million dollars in 1981.
Comparing the fuel expenditure by the system f.or the assistance oF one air-
craft with the rate of ~fuel expenditure by an aircraft in flight, the auth-
ors of [29] demonstrate the fuel saving due to use of a thermal system.
For example, aircraft of the Boeing-747 type, being detained in landing for
more than 35 minutes, expend more fuel than the thermal system expends per
one landing.
Thus, the use of thermal systems at airports with a high volume of air traf~
fic will make it possible to improve the operation of airports, reduce econ-
omic expenditures, save fuel. and increase flight safety.
Numerical Modeling of Thermal Modifieation
The field experiments which have been made indicated that the discrete pos-
itioning of heat sources around the region to be cleared, wind strength
and direction exert an agpreciable .influence on the heat distribution in '
the clearing volume. Another important conclusion from the field experiments
is that inverse relationships are involved: ~n influence of the produced
heat an the background characteristics, such as an increase in turbulence
in the lower layer of the atmosphere~aud an intensification of the wind by
30-35% near the ground (at the level 6 m) and by 10% at�the level 60 m[22J.
Under real conditions it is necessary not simply to scatter the fog, but
disperse it in a relatively short ~ime so that an aircraft in the course of
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_ 5 minutes can make a takeoff or a landing. These experiments indicate that
~ during the course of this time interval the process~is essentially nonsta-
tionary.
Thus, in order for the physicomathematical models describing the process
of a thermal effect on fogs to approach real processes it is necessary to
solve the nonstationary spatial problem, taking into account inverse rela-
tionships and the discreteness of positioning of sources.
At the present time we can mention only a few studies [1-4, 8, 21] in which
by the use of simplified models the authors examine different aspects of
the thermal modification method. Closest to field experiments are descrip-
tions of the thermal modification method in [21, 30]. The physicomathemat-
ical models themselves are not given in these publications.
A model study of the thermal modification method [21],preceding field ex-
periments in the United States at Vandenberg AFB, made it possible to sel-
ect the geometry of the system (positioning of the lines of burners, spac-
ing between burners) and the intensity of the heat sources. The numerical
modeling was based on a stationary model of the rising of the heat current.
The principal assumption made in the model was that there is a uniform dis-
tribution of temperature, humidity and liquid water content in the cross
section of the current and retention of mass, momentum and buoyancy along
the current tra~ectory. In the computations the tra3ectory of the current,
its radius, and mean temperature, numidity and l.iquid-water content were
- determined in the cross section. The formulated model was used in studying
. the influence of intensity of the burners, the spacing between burners,
and wind velocity on the position of the central line of the current (tra-
~ectory). A comparison of the results of computations with the experimental
data indicated that the model reproduces the position of the current, that
is, its tra~ectory, quite well. However, the assumptions made did not make
possible a correct reproduction of the influence of the produced heat on
the surrounding fog.
The numerical model of dispersal of fog by means of burners presented in
[30] is based on a~two-dimensional nonstationary mo.del of a convective
cloud developed by Murray [25, 26]. This model, as is noted in [30], was
~ improved by the introduction of a vertically nonuniform grid, variable co-
~ efficients of turbulent viscosity and some othei small refining details.
This model was employed in investigating the influence of the produced
heat and the positioning of the lines of burners on heat distribution in
the volume to be cleared. Numerical experiments were carried out with one
row of burners with a wind intersecting the runway and with two rows of
burners under windless conditions.~e influence of wind velocity, ini-
tial temperature, liquid-water con ent of a fog and its thickness on fog
dispersal was checked.
In the case of a wind intersecting the runway Che wind was stipulated con-
stant with height. The computation results indicated that with an intens-
ification of the wind the height to which heat is propagated decreases. '
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Npither changes in the mean temperature (from 7.5 to 15�C) nor its pro-
file (isothermal to dry-adiabatic) exert a significant influence on
heat propagation from a row of burners in a case of a wind intersect-
ing the runway. With an increase in the liquid-water content of the fog
the zone of fog dispersal decreased. For the evaporation of droplets with
an increase in liquid-water content.from~0.1 to 0.2 and 0.4 g/kg the i~-
crease in heat expenditure was 22, 34 and 51% respectively. With an in~
crease in fog intensity in short distances (up to 100 m)�no differences
were observed on the leeward side of the line of burners~.
� A study was made of the advantages of using two rows of burners in compar-
ison wlth one row (with one and the same total intensity). In a compari-
son of the results it was found that the heat from ~ne row of burners was
propagated more rapidly in a~vertical direction. The only advantage fram
the use of two rows of burner.s was an intensification of fog dispersal at
the ground.
In the numerical modeling of windless condi.tians there was found to be an
air circulation witl-i ascending movements.above the lines of burners and
descending movements between them. Such a circulation, on the one hand,
favored the movement of the fog layer from the reg~on over the runway to
the warm current created by the burners, as a result of which the space
over the runway was cleared; on the.other hand, a constant inflow of fo~
from the surrounding space was created. The results of the computations
revealed that under windless conditions the decisive role is played by t.he
intensity of the heat sources, sinc~ with a decrease in the intensity of
the lines of burners, although the form of circulation virtually did not
change, ascending and descpnding currents with a weak intensity did not
create a convergent flow necessary for eliminating the entire fog from the
zone over the runway.
- Fog dispersal is also dependent on the distances between the lines of burn-
ers. With increasing distance of the lines of burners from the runway there
is a decrease in the interaction of the circu7.ations created by the sources.
Since in this case there is no warm flow over the runway~, the fog is dis-
persed only as a result of outward transport, which ~s ineffective.
Ttie influence of atmospher3.c stratification on heat distribuCion in the
zone over the runway under windless conditions is greater than when a. wind
is present.
The results of computations using this model qualitatively correctly reflect
the physics of the process, but the study gives no quantitative comparison
with the experimental results.
Not one of the studies [1-4, 8] reflects the real physical conditions when
_ using the thermal method for fog modification and nevertheless they unques- ~ ~
tionably are of theoretical interest because they are directed ~a an invest-
igation of individual aspects of a complex process, a clarification of some
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;
I
~ physical laws in the thermal method for fog modification.
i
In [8] tihe model is stationary; it does not take inverse relationships into !
account; a heated surface is used as the heat sources. After analyzing the I~
restructuring of the temperature and humidity fields in special examples, !
the authors of [8] note tha t there is some combination of conditions which i
is the most favorable from the economic point of view. ~
The effect exerted on the process of cooling of the atmospheric boundary ~
layer for the purpose of preventing a fog in [4] and on a fog in [3] is !
considered within the framework of one-dimensional closed models. Allowance i
for the inverse relationships in these models made it possible to demon- ;
s trate that some of the energy generated by the heat sources is expended ~
on atmospheric turbulence: the coefficient of turbulent exchange increases
by an order of magnitude. In analyzing the influence of height of position- ;
ing of the source and its intensity, it is noted in [4 ] that in each spe- ;
c ific case there is an opt imum combination of these parameters from the (
po int of view of more economical use of heat. ~
~
Studies [1, 2] were devoted to development of a method for computing the !
spatial change of ineteorological fields when a fog is modified by a thermal ;
po int source applicable to a model of a stationary radiation fog. The ther- i
ma.l modification effect is investigated using the results of computations.
Field perturbations are analyzed and the effectiveness of the thermal ef- ~
fect on a fog is evaluated. As in [4J, the authors of these studies note ~ ~
the existence of the optimum height at which the maximum modification ef- ;
fect is attained. '
Sua~nary i
i
- A11 the investigations carr ied out in the world in the course of 30 years ;
indicate that thermal systems are capable of dispersing a warm fog over a ;
runway to the operational level. ~
I
The use of jet engines or burners as heat sources has its positive and neg- !
a t ive aspects. The use of j et engines generating both thermal and kinetic ;
energy makes it possible to obtain a more uniform heat distribution over !
the runway. However, strong artificial turbulence, caused by jet engines in ~
the lower layer of the atmo sphere, causes additional difficulties during ~
the landing of relatively 1 ight aircraft and has a negative effect on es- ~
pecially sensitive automatic landing systems. In addition, a system using ~
j e t engines for the time being is capable of creating a clearing in a fog ~
no t higher than the conditions corresponding to an automatic landing of ~
categories II and IIIA. ~
~
When using burners as the heat sources the created artificial turbulence ;
do es not cause additional d ifficulties during the landings of any aircraft.
Hnwever, in this case another problem arises the problem of achieving a '
uniform heat distribution in the volume being cleared. In this case ~
i
,
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n
the geometry of the system and the intensity of the sources ar e highly
dependent on meteorological conditions.
The proposal by Doctor W: Vickers (modification team of Mitre Corporation)
[32J on the simultaneous use of four ~et engines and 75 propane burners
is interesting from the point of vi.ew of making use of the pos itive qual-
ities of each type of heat source, The principal function of the engines
should be movement of the warm air, although they will also serve as addi-
tional heat sources. Another approach is the generation of thermokinetic
energy by means of bur.ners, as, for example, in the MAT (Momentum Augmen~-
ed Thermal) [36] system and in Che thermal system at Otis Air Force Base
[24].
These investigations indicated that the energy efficiency of the thermal
systems is considerably 1"eas than 100% due to the nonuniform distributton
of heat in the volume to be cleared, heat loss as a result of the wind
and edge effects, and~al~so due to the fact that a heat excess is always
required in order to clesr a fog during a quite short time interval, In
order to increase the efficiency of the thermal system it is necessary
to seek methods for a more uniform heat distribution in the volume to be
cleared and to reduee losses due to edge effects.
In order to rreate and develop an operational thermal system dispersing
fog to an operational level,, for selecting its optimum operating regime
aad evalua.ting the necessary energy expenditures, in each specific case
it is necessary to carry out f'ield experiments in a specially equipped poly-
gon.
The creation of physicomathem~tical models capable of reproduc ing a fu11-
scale experiment adequately well would assist in working out an optimum
regime of the thermal system with different external conditions, includ-
ing not only background meteorological fields, but also fog charac~eristics.
_ BTBLIOGRAPHY .
1. Andreyev, V. M., "Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Fog Mod ification
by a Thermal Point Source," ME~'EOROLOGIYA.I GIDROLOGIYA (Meteorology
and Hydrology), No 6,.19Z8. -
, 2. Andreyev, V. M., "Perturbatiion of Meteorological Elements in the Sur-
face Layer of the Atmosphere"Using Regulated Effects," Author's Sum-
mary of Diasertatiom for Award of the Academic Degree of Candidate of
Physical and Mathe~atlcal Sci.enees, London, 1978.
3. Buykov, M. V., Khvorost'yanou, V. I., "Modeling of Artificial Modif-
ication of a Rad~iatioh Fog Usiag the Thermal Method," TRUDy UkrNIGMI
(Transactions of tRe Ukrainian~Scientific Research Hydrometeorological
Institute), No 161,~1978~.
157
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4. Zakharova, I. M., "Modification of the Process of Formation of a Rad-
iation Fog Using Artificial Heat Sources," TRUDY IEM (Transactions
of the Institute of Experimental Meteorology), No 12 (31), 1976. '
5. Kachurin, L. G., FIZICHESKIYE OSNOVY VOZDEYSTVIYA NA ATMOSFERNYYE ~
~ PROTSESSY (Physical Principles of Modif ication of Atmospheric Proces8- ;
es), Leningrad, Gidrometeoizdat, ~973. ~
i
6. K~rber, L. L., KOMPONOVKA OBORUDOVANIYA NA SAMOLETAKH (Layout of In-
strumentation Aboard Aircraft), Moscow, Mashinostroyeniye, 1976.
' 7. Polovina, I. P., VOZDEYSTVIYE NA VNUTRIMASSOVYYE OBLAKA SLOISTYKH FORM
(Modification of Air-Mass Stratiform Clouds), Leningrad, Gidrometeo-
izdat, 1971.
8. Simonov, V. V., Nikandrova, G. T., "Evaluations of Energy Expendi-
tures in Fog Dispersal Over an Artificially Heated Zone," TRUDY GGO ;
~ (Transactions of the Main Geophysical Observatory), No 262, 1971.
9. Solov'yev, A. D., "Fog Dispersal at Positive Air Temperatures," TRUDY
TsAO (TransacCions of the Central Aerological Observatory), No.65, ~
1965.
10. Accola, J. P., "Breaking the Fog Blanket. The AWS Entry into Weather
Modification," THE MAC FLYER, Vol 15, No 9, 1968. ~
11. Anonymous. "Potential Economic Benefits of Fog Dispersal in the Ter-
- minal Area. Reports FAA-RD-71-44-1 (Part I) and FAA-RD-71-44-11 .(Part
II). FINAL REPORT TO DEPT. OF TRANSPORTATION, Washington, D. C.
12. Appleman, H. S., FIRST REPORT OF TF~ AIR WEATHER SERVICE. WEATHER
MODIFICATION PROGRAM. TECHNICAL REPORT 203, April 1968. ~
13. Appleman, H. S., Coons, F. G., "The Use of Jet Aircraft Engines to
Dissipate Warm Fog,"~J. APPL. METEOROL., Vol 9, No 3, 1970.
14 . Brooks, C. F., WIiY THE WEATHER? London, 1935 . _
15. Choji Magono, "A Warm Fog Dissipation Experiment Utilizing Burning ~
Propane Gas," J. DE RECHEItCHES ATMOSPHERIQUES, Vol VI, No 1-2-3, ~
,1972. I
16. Cot, P. D., Serpolay, R., "Les recherches de dissipation thermique
des brouillards realisees a 1'aeroport d'Orly," J. RECH. ATMOSPH.,
Vol 2, No 2-3~, 1966.
17. "Defoggeru'and Defrosters Keep Airports Open in Bad Weather," PRODUCT
ENGINEERING, Vol 40, No 16, 1969.
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18. Downie, C. S., Smith, B. B., "Thermal Techniques for Dissipating
Fog from Aircraft Runways," AFCRL-TN-58-477, AIR FORCE SURVEYS IN
G'EOPHYSICS, No 106, 1958.
19. Facy, L., "Fog Dispersal Physical and Technological Aspects," PROCEED-
INGS OF THE WMO/IAMAP SCIENTIFIC CONFERENCE ON WEATHER MODIFICATION,
Tashkent, 1-7 October 197~3. WMO No 399.
20. "French Fog Dispersal System Tested," AVIATION WEEK AND SPACE TECHNOL-
OGY, Vol 28, 1974.
21. Kunkel, B. A., Silverman, B. A., Weinstein, A. I., Price, C., "The
Design of an Efficient Thermal ~'og Dispersal System for Airports,"
THIRD CONF. WEATHER MODIFIGATION, Rapid.City, S. D., Amer. Meteorol.
Soc. June 26-29; 1972.
22. Kunkel, B. A., Silverman, B. A., Weinstein, A. I., "Thermal and Chem-
ical Fog Dissipation Results of Field Experiments at Vandenberg
AFR, California, During:Julq 1972," AFCRL-TR-73-0502, ENVIRONMENTAL
RESEARCH PAPERS No 454, 1973~.
23. Kunkel, B. A., Silverman, B. A., Weinstein, A. I., "An Evaluation of
Some Thermal Fog Dispersal Exper iments," J. APPL. METEOROL., V~l. 13;
No 6, 1974.
24. Kunkel, B. A., "The~Design of a Warm Fog Dispersal System," SIXTH
CONF. ON PLANNED AND INADVERTENT WEATHER MODIF., Oct. 10-13, 1977,
Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, Boston, 1977.
25. Murray, F. W., "Numerical Models of a Tropical Cumulus Cloud With Bi-
lateral and Axial Symmetry," MON. WEATHER REV., Vol 98, 1970.
26. Murra~, F. W., Koenig~, L. R., "Numerical Experiments on the Relation
Between Microphysics and Dynamics in Cumulus Convection," MON.
WEATHER. REV., Vol 100, 197'2.
27. Rogers, C. W., Mack, E. J., Pilie, R. J., "Experimental Test of Fog
Clearing by Ground-Based Heating-Visibility, Temperature and Fog
Microphysics," AFCRL-TR=73~0056, Calspan Corporation, Buffalo, N. Y.,
14221, Scientific Rep., No l, Dec 1972.
28. Sauvalle, E., "Operational Fog Dispersal Systems at Orly and Charles
de Gaulle Airpbrt Using.the Turbo clair~Process," PROCEEDINGS OF THE
SECOND WMO SCIENTIFIC CONFB$ENCE ON WEATHER MODIFICATION, Boulder,
Colorado, 2-6 ~Aug.-, 1976.
29. Silverman, B. Weinsteia, A. I., "Design of a Modern Thermal Fog
Dissipat3on System for A3rports," PROG�EEDINGS OF THE WMO/IAMAP SCIEIv'-
TIFIC CONFERENCE'ON~WEATHER MODIFIGATION, Tashkent, 1-7 October, 1973.
159
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30. Tag, P. M., "Dissipation of Fog Using Passive Burner Lines: Numerical
Sensitivity Experiments," SIXTH CODTI~'. ON PLANNED AND INADVERTENT
WEATHER MODIF., Oct. 10-13, 1977, Ghampaign-Urbana, Illinois, Bos-
ton, 1977.
- 31. Tschupp, E. J., "Economic Considerations in Fog Dispersal," SECOND
NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON WEATHER MODIFICATION OF THE AMER. METEOROL.
SOC., April 6-9, 1970, Saata Barbara, California.
32. "Warm Fog Dispersal ~echnique Studied," AVIATION WEER AND SPACE TECH-
NOLOGY, Vol 99, No 9, 1973.~
33. Weinstein, A. I., "Tnermal Warm Fog Dissipation FIeat Requirements
and Pro~ected Utilization of a--System for Travis AFB, California," ~
AFCRL-TR-73-0367, 18 June 1973, AIR FORCE SUR.VEYS IN GEOPHYSICS, No
270. ~
34. Weinstein, A. I., "Proj ect ed Utilization of Warm Fog Dispersal Systems
at Several Major Airports, " J. APPL. METEOROL., Vol 13, 1974.
35. Weinstein, A. I., "Projected Utilization of Warm Fog Dispersal Tech- ~
nology at Major Airports," SIXTH~CONRERENCE ON AEROSPACE AND AERO- '
NAUTICAL METEOROLOGY, November 12-15,. E1 Paso, Texas, 1974.
~
36. Weinstein, A. I., "Fog Dispersal: A Technology Assessment," J. AIR-
CRAFT, Vol 14, Na 1, 1977'.
37. Weinstein, A. I., nunkel, B. A., "Fog-.Dispersal an Operational
Weather Modificat~.on Technology Today," -PAPERS~ PRESENTED AT THE II ;
WMO SCI. CONF. ON WEATHER MOD., Boulder, Colo., 2-6 Aug 1976, WMO, !
No 443.
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w
REVIEW OF MONOGRAPH BY YE. G. POPGV: GIDROLOGICHESKIYE PROGNOZY
(HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTS), LENINGRAD, GIDROMETEOIZDAT, 1979, 256 PAGES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 p 116
[Article by Candidate of Technical Sciences G. N. Ugreninov]
[Text] Eleven years have elapsed since publication of the textbook by Ye.
G. Popov entitled OSNOVY GIDROLOGICHESKIRH PROGNOZOV (Principles of Hy-
drological Forecasts). During this time there was considerable develop-
ment of hydrological forecasting methods, there is much more initial in-
formation and electronic computers have been extensively.introduced
into the hydrological forecasting service. All these changes ar~ reflect-
ed in the new edition of the book.
As in the preceding edition, the textbook is intended primarily for stu-
dents at hydrometeorological technicaZ schools. In this connection the
author has striven for maximum simplicity and care in expnsition, empha-
sizing solution of the most typical prognostic proulems. At the same time
J it should be stressed that the advanced methodology of the author and
universality of the presented macerial broaden the framework of the text-
book and ~sonstitute a basis for its access to a broader circle of readers,
especiall~ to students at colleges and to professional hydrologists.
The undeviating increase in the level of theoretical training of students
enabled the author to include in the baok information favoring the forma-
tion among readers of a materialistic perception of natural phenomena and
human activity (for example, see the section "The Regular and Random in
Hydrological Forecasts"). Entirely justifiable is the inclusion in ~he
book of a new chapter entitled "General Problems in the Theory of Forma-
tivn and Computation of Melt and Rainwater Runoff." The ~oint examination
= of the most important hydrological processes in the formation of runoff _
makes it possible to clarify the general regularities in natural phenomena.
" The problem of the use of electronic modeling devices is dealt with more
specifically in the new edition of the textbook, although this aspect of
activity of the hydrological forecasts could have been devoted somewhat
more attention. Taking into account the modern approach to methods for
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carrying out a water inventory, we can only welcome the supplementing of
the textbook with material on the storage of data on technical carriers.
The exercises cited at the end of the chapters will be of great profit to
students, especially those engaged in correspondex~ce study, but also to
specialists independently studying the subject. The problems formulated
in the exercises cover the must important variants of application of the
methods described in the corresponding chapters and therefore in:~tructors
can use these exercises as a basis for carrying out laboratory exercises
with students.
As a comment relative to the completeness of the presented material it is
possib'.e to mention lack of information on forecasts on the basis of aero- '
= space in.formation. To be sure, such forecasts to a large extent are a mat-
ter of the future, but already accumulated experience merits attention and
popularization. '
Like the other books by Ye. G. Popov, the textbook is characterized by re-
proachless logic in exposition, rigorously checked terminology and good
literary Ianguage. The textua.l material is well supported with correspond-
ing tables and graphs. The extensive appendices make it possible to use ~
the textbook as a reference manual for carrying out ma.ny types of work in
- operational forecasting. ihe inclusion of a subject index in the new edi-
tion is very usef.sl; it facilitates the search for informa.tion, especially '
in the independent study of the course and in preparation for examinations.
The successful printing quality of the book should also be mentioned.
There is every basis for assuming that the new edit~on of GIDROLOGICHESKIYE . ~
PROGNOZY wil~ have a broad circle of readers interested in hydrometeorolog- i
ical ~roblems. :
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. REVIEW OF MONOGRAPH BY YU. I. CHIRKOV: AGROMETEOROLOGIYA
(AGROMETEOROLOGY~, LENINGRAD, 1979, 320 PAGES
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 116-118 ~
- [Articl~ by Candidate of Geographical Sciences M. S. Kulik]
[Te:ctJ During recent years several monographs, hundreds of articles and
dozens of inethodological instructions have been published with exposition
of the result,s of agrometeorologieal investigations ma.de over the course
of recent dec~des and with generalization of achievements in the agro-
' meteorological support of agriculture.
The author of the textbook AGROMETEOROLOGIYA (Agrometeorology) was faced
with an extremely difficul,t task: within the bounds of a restricted vol-
ume (20 printer's pages) set forth the principles of ineteorology, weather
forecasting, climatology, agrometeorology and agroclimatology.
It is particularly difficult to discriminate from the enormous volume of
diversif ied material on agrometeorology that wh3ch is most important and
. do so with the maxi.mum brevity, clarity and care. The author of the text-
book was able to do this.
~ The textbook gives a concise but clear characterization of the atmosphere,
radiant energy in the atmosphere and at the earth's surface; the thermal
regime of the air and soil is described; data are given on water vapor in
the atmosphere, precipitation, snow cover, soil moisture, wind, weather
and its prediction. A11 the mentioned meteorological factors are examined
relative to their importance for agricultural production. , ~
A to*_al of 144 of the 320 pages are devoted to agrometeorology. The text-
book contains cha~ters devoted to meteorological phenomena dangerous for
agriculture, climate and its importance for agricultural production, agro-
meteorological observations, use of their data in production and field �
experimenLS, agrometeorolog:ical forecasts and agrometeorological support
of agricultural production.
The textbooks published earlier for students at higher agricultural in-
stitutes could not contain the advances in the developmenfi of agrometeor-
oicgy during rec~nt years. Some textbooks (V. I. Vitkevich) have introduced
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confusion in the def inition of the subject of agrometeorology, arl~itrar-
ily interpreted the tasks of agrometeorology and extremely poorly taken
into account experience in agrometeorological support of agriculture.
Yu. I. Chirkov, having much experience in research work in the field
of agrometeorology and experience in routine agrometeorological support
of agriculture, has created a textbook taking into account the present
status of agrometeorological science and the requirements on it imposed
by agricultural and planning organizations. `
In 1975 a general agreement was concluded between the Main Administration
of the Hydrometeorological Service (now the USSR State Committee on flydro-
meteorology and Environmental Monitoring) and the USSR Agriculture Min-
_ istry on mutual obligations with respect to hydrometeorological servic-
ing of the agricultural industry. The textbook was prepared with this
agreement taken into account.
A definition of the subject of agrometeorology is given in the introduc-
tion. It can cause no objection. It gives the laws on which agrometeor-
ological science is based. But they are not all illustrated by examples.
For example, the essence of the optimum law is not eaplained, although
it was possible to cite certain results of a two-factor experiment in
which the following corn yield increments were obtained (grain, centners/
hectare): from fertilizers without irrigation 5; from irrigation with-
out fertilizers 32; from the application of fertilizers and irrigation
- 67, that is, environmental factors exert their influence to the great-
est degree when operating jointly, since they not only supplement one
another but also interact rigorously with one another.
In examining the principal tasks of agrometeorology the author has not
dwelt on the special importance of agrometeorological support of agri-
culture in the Nonchernozem zone.
It is noted in the subsection entitled "Principal Stages in the History of
AgrometEOrology" that the Russian Agrohydrometeorological Institute
was organized in 1932. But not a word is said about the organlzation of '
the Central Scientific Research Institute for the Study of Droughts and
Drying Winds or about the director of this institute, Academician R. E.
David. R. E. David was the only agrometeorologist elected an academician
of the All-Union Agricultural Academy. He was the author of our country's
first textbook on agricultural meteoro3ogy (SEL'SKOKHOZYAYSTVENNAYA METEOR-
OI;OGIYA). R. E. David wrote the monograph PSHENITSA I KLIMAT {Wheat and
Climate). He created a new direction in agrometeorology. His agrometeor-
ological val3dations of ineasures for contending with droughts and drying
"~""'winds are classic. P. G. Kabanov, in developing David's ideas, published
dozens of studies which still enjoy exceptional popularity. It is truE
that the studies of Academician R. E. David and P. G. Kabanov are men-
tioned on pages 314 and 317, but they should be mentioned in the history
of agrometeorology. The Agrophysical Institute is not mentioned at all.
164
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~ It is noted on p. 193 that many researchers as a basis for evaluating
- the intensity of a drought use the decrease in the yield of grain crops
in comparison with the mean long-term value. There was no need to write
about this. The author himself refutes the possibility of using this
method by data, cited on p. 200. In actuality, during the last decade,
. due to new varieties, the mean long-term value is becoming nonindicative
for an analysis of the yield level and therefore it is not the iieviations
from the mean long-term value which are analyzed, but instead, deviations
from the trend. This should have been discussed in detail.
~
The chapter entitled "Agrometeorological Forecasts" includes the sections
"Scientific Principles of Methods for Agrometeorological Forecasts" and
"Types of Agrometeorological Forecasts and Methods for Their Preparation
and the Use of Agrometeorological and Agroclimatic Characteristics in
Yield Programming." Dozens of studies have been published on each of the
mentivned subjects. Despite this, the chapter is allocated only 28 pages.
It is not surprising tYiat no place was found for an examination of the ef-
fect of ineteorolo,gical conditions on the effectiveness of mineral fertil-
izers and for agrometeorolo.gical forecasts. But place should be found.
"Soviet and foreign experience shows that not less than half the incre- ~
ment of the yield of agricultural crops is usually obtained due to the
use of fertilizers" (L. I. Brezhnev, LENINSKIY KURS, Vol 2, p 295).
In describing the method for predicting the yield of winter wheat devel-
oped by Ye. S. Ulanova, the textbook author has not cited the multifactor
equations for prediction in the ear-formation s~age, although a forecast
prepared in this phase is used most extensively on a practical basis.
~ Space should be found for specific examples of the practical use of fore-
casts of the state of crops for contending with predators, diseases and
beating-down of crops, determination of the times of soil dessication in
spring (beginning of field work) (A. N. Derevyanko), etc. Very few ex-
3mples are given of the practical use of agroclimatic data.
On the map (Fig. 29) of the mean long-term reserves of productive mois-
ture in spring (prepared by V. A. Sennikov) the isolines in Eastern Siber-
ia and in the Far East were drawn using datia for an extremely limited num-
ber of stations and therefore are schematic. The dynamic model of the pro-
duction process developed by O. D. Sirotenko is not considered. The in-
vestigations of A. N. Polevoy on this question, having great practical
importance, are not included in the textbook.
The section "Frosts" covers T4 pages and the section on "Agrometeorolog-
ical Support of Agriculture" covers 12 pages, although dozens of studies
~have been p~.iblished on these subjects. We should mention the misprints
which were noted. On p. 16 the words "molecular weight" are printed in-
stead of "mass." Such e~-rors in books published in 1979 cause perplexity
among students. On p.296 the formula for the humidity index has an ir-
ritating misprint.
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The table of contents is printed in type which is too small and the titles
- of the subsections are not included, which ma.kes it difficult to use the
~ table of contents. However, the mentioned shortcomings are not of funda-
mental importance. In general, the textbook AGROMETEOROLOGIYA, prepared
by Professor Yu. I. Chirkov, is an important landmark in the development
of agrometeorology. It merits the highest recognition. But when a new ed-
ition is published the volume of the textbook must be increased in order
to eliminate the present omissions.
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F(1R ~F'FfCTAT, iT~R ~M,Y
SEVENTIETH $IRTFIDAY ~OF ~~P'AVEL ~~~AMOYI;OVICH 'LIN~YKIN
Moscow METEOROLOGIYA I'GiDRb?i(~GI7~A ~'~in Russian No 5, May 80 pp 119-12p
. [Article by `st~ft ~"of ~til~e-~~US~SR ~d~d~de'~~o'rologieal ~ Center]
[Text] Professor ''P~.vel `8~m~5glbiiich ~Zii~~qkin, 'Doctor ~f Physical and Mathe-
matical ScienNes, ~`a~e of "~he ~I'~'d�3:i~g 'Cheoietical oceaar,? ogists, markad his
, 'seventi~th "6~.rtHdaq bn '6 ~~~il. '
~ .
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;:~dy
>
, ,
The scieritific - and �~.teachi~ng" ~w~o~k�?of :~Pa~el San?oylovich began in 1930. After
~gra'duating from the Pktqsieal--Te~~nical Division of Saratov State University
~ he ~ worked at ~ the ~~ower '~Volga -'I~qd'~bme~'eorological ~Bureau. There he formed
'his seienti�ic ~interes~'s, ~ co~~],et'~ly determined while he was a; graduate ~
'st~d'ent at ,t~I~e ~~Se~i`~i~ific ~~Re~~ai~~h 'G~o~physical Institute. The sub~ ect of
'his first ''iirir~~tigatioris, :+'~de ~in'�~de'~eiY'se ~.of '~his Candidate's : dissertation
in ~1936, ~was tidal ~proic~~ss'~s ~in'~as-it~s ~and -channels. Since that time the
`study of pro$leins`in.~geophgsics~and~hydrometeorology.has been the basis of
''the di~rersifited 'and ~ro'duetive d~~eriCi�~ic- activity of P. 3. Lineykin.
_16~7 -
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An article by Pavel Samoylovich entitled "Determination of Thickness of
the Baroclinic Layer in the Sea" was published by Pavel Samoylovich in
1955 in the DOKLADY AN SSSR (Reports of the USSR Academy of Sciences). It
consti~uted a new direction in study of the dynamics of sea currents. The
rational formulation of the problem proposed in the article, together with
the ways suggested for its solution, constituted the basis of the theory of
the main thermocline in the ocean, making it possible to explain the most
important characteristics of three-dimensional circulation and the distrib-
ution of water density in the ocean. The results of the first stage of in-
vestigations in this direction were generalized in the monograph OSNOVNYYE
VOPROSY DINAMICHESKOY TEORII BAROKLINNOGO SLOYA MORYA (Principal Problems
in the Dynamic Layer of the Sea) (1957), which received wide recognition.
During the years which followed the studies of P. S. Lineykin and his stu-
dents were devoted to the development of this new approach to the dynamics
of sea currents. A nonlinear theory was formulated, taking into account
the interaction of the current velocity and density fields of sea water.
The influence of bottom relief and ocean depth on the structure of currents
was clarified. The role of diffusion and dissipative mechanisms was evalu- .
ated. Deep currents whose direction~is opposite the circulatiion of surface
waters were discovered. The last of these theoretical results was confirmed
brilliantly on the basis of direct measurements in the ocean and numerical
experiments. j
All the studies of P. S. Lineykin are characterized by a striving for dis-
criminating the main, decisive aspects of complex natural processes and
giving them a clear physical interpretation. This was already manifested in
early publications devoted to the theory of tides, the theory of monsoons,
the theory of free and forced canvection in a fluid~, the theory of forma-
tion of the temperature and salinity fields in the upper layer of the ocean.
The scientific activity of Pavel Samoylovich is not restricted to investi-
gations which are usually regarded as purely academic. He was one of the
first to make successful use of the method of numerical integration of the
equations of hydrothermodynamics applicable to real physiographic condi-
tions. In 1967 he headed the Sea Dynamics Laboratory organized at the USSR
Hydrometeorological Center. The principal objective of the new laboratory
was the development of inethods for computing and predicting oceanological
characteristic's on the basis of hydrothermodynamic models of the corres-
ponding processes. In a relatively short time the laboratory under the di-
rect3on of P. S. Lineykin developed investigations in the field of mathe-
matical modeling, computations and methods for predicting large-scale and
local processes in the ocean. As a result the laboratory formulated numer-
ical methods for predicting temperature and the thickness of the upper mix-
~d layer in the ocean, storm-induced level rises in the ma3or ports of the
USSR, thickness and distribution of the ice cover in nonarctic seas. On
the initiative of P. S. Lineykin it was possible to develop investigations .
of interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere directed to improvement
in methods for long-range weather forecasting.
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The teaching activity of P. S. Lin.eykin is also highly productive. Broad
scientific erudition, per.sonal charm and the unusual capability for de-
fining the most timely problems in oceanology have invariably attracted
young people taking their first steps in science to Pavel Samoylovich.
P. S. Lineykin performs much public work.
Pavel Samoylovich meets his 70th birthday at the height of creative activi4y.
During recent years he has achieved new results in the study of nonstation-
ary mechanisms of ocean3c circula.t3on. A special~ type of wave movements in
the ocean created by the seasonal var~atioa of ineteorological conditions
and manifested in the form of moving>large-scale (with a scale of the order
of the earth's radius) circulatory.elements of sign-variable vorticity was
discovered. It was demonstrated;that nonlinear effects in such ~iave dis-
turbances lead to a distortion of~the wave profile and the possible foxma-
~tion of ocean fronts. This laid the foundations for a fundamentally new :.~p-
proach to the prediction of macroscale.oceanological fields.
In congratulating Pavel Samoylovich on this memorable birthday we wish him
good health and creative successes.
169
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FIFTIETH ANNIVERSARY OF.THE USSR HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CENTER ~
Mnscow METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA in Russian No,S, May 80 pp 120-122 ;
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[Article by A. A. Akulinicheva] i
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[Teat] A solemn meeting devoted to the SOth anniversary of the USSR Hydro- ~
meteorological Center.was held on 8 January in the CAlumned Ha11 of the i.
Palace of Unions. The presidium of the solemn meeting included M. V. Zim- f
yanin, Secretary of the Central Committee CPSU, Z. N. Nuriyev, deputy ~
chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers, and a number of key w~orkers
of the administrative sector of tNe Central Committee CPSU, USSR Council ;
of Ministers and the Moscow Citq Committee CPSU. ~
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