JPRS ID: 10513 JAPAN REPORT

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• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP82-00850R000500060026-2
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• Content Type: REPORTS

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JPRS L/ 10513
- 12 May 1982
Ja an Re ort
p p
CFOUO 29/82)
Fg~~ FOREIGN E3ROADCAST INFORMATION SERVICE
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' JPRS L/10513
_ 12 May 19�t2
1
; JAPAN REPORT
cFOUO .Z~~s2)
CONTENTS
POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
Proposal For Upper House Prop4rtional Representation Ane,~yzed
, (Ts,i~oshi Yamazaki; YONLLURI SffiMBUN, 11 Max 82) 1
Prerequisites of Election District Reform Analyzed .
~ (1~TIHON KEIZAI SHINIDUN, 8 Apr 82) 6
Constitutional Amendment Faction of LDP On Rise
(MAINICHI SHIMB[7N, 29 Mar 82) 8
Suzuki Denunciation of Constit utional Amenc~m~ent Puzzling
~ (sANKEI SxIMBUN, 29 Mex 82) li
Probability of April Diet Dissolutian Discuased 13
(SHOKUN, Mar 82)
LDP's Political Gadfly Nakagawa Discussed 2~
(Ken~i Kitahaxa; THE DAILY YOMIURI, 16 Apr 82)...~.........
Keidanren'S Recommendat~on for Administrative Reform Editorielized
(MAINICHI DAILY NEFIS, 19 Apr 82) .............a............. ~25
Suzuki Government's Policy Revision Predicted ~7
(Takehiko ~akaheshi; MAINICHI DAILY NEWS, 21 Apr 82).......
ECONOMIC
'MAINICHI' Urges Opening Japan's Farm Maxket 29
(Editorial; MAI1vICHI DAILY NEWS, 21 Apr 82)
U.S. Plans To T ake Farm Produce Issue t o GATT
(ASAHI EVEI~TING NEWS, 16 Apr 82)............. 31
>
- a - [III - ASIA - l~l FOUO]
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Sale of Alaskeri Crude Oil to Japan Would H~ t~, U.S .
( Yukimas a Okamoto; SHUIC~,N ASAHI, 19 Mar 82 ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
SCIENCE AND TECI~TOLOGY

~
Hitachi Sells SemicAnductor Technoloq~r to H~wlett-Packard
(NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN, NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN; 3 Mar 82) 38
Contract on 6~+K DRAM
Secand HP Shock
Current R&D of Fine Ceremi.es, Amorphous Silicon Discussed
(Yasunobu Misato; BUNGEI SHUNJU, Mar 82) 42
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POLITICAL ANU SOCIOLOCrICAL
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PROPOSAL FOR UPPER HOUSE PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION AI~!,LYZED
~ Tokyo YOMIURI SHIMBUN in Japanese 11 Mar 82 p 5
, [Article by Reporter Tsuyoshi Yamazaki: "The Upper Aouse Proportional
- Representation System That Has Taken Shape"] ~
[Text] Regarsing the problem of revising the.Upper House national electoral
constituency system, the Japan Socialist Party (JSP) has decided to.adopt a
proposal for a revised St Lague type of proportional representation system
with binding lists. Although it differs from the D'Hondt formula being
submitted to the Diet by the L~beral Democratic Party (LDP) in the method of
computing the distrtbution of Diet seats, the cooperation between the LDP
and the JSP, the two ma~or parties, toward the introduction of a propor-
; tional representation system in the Upper House national district, based on
a binding list of car~didates, will have a ma3or impact. It appears that the
reform of the national district may suddenly loom as the ma~ar issue in the
last half of the current Diet session. '
~ Change in Diet Seats ~
~ The aim of the proportional reprBSentation system is to structure the Diet
seats in proportion to the votes polled by the politica'!, parties. It is
' derived, as it were, from the idea of designing the Dier as a"microcosm"
of the national electorate's will (its support of the ~grties) and is
adopted in virtually all Western European countries with the exception of
Britain and France, which use the small electoral district system [the
- single-member district system]. . As a result of the emphasis on votes
polled by the political parties, the election becomes a party-centered
rather than candidate-centered poll, while the "dead votes" (votes cast for
the losers, whi~h are not reflected in te"rms of Diet seats) decrease in
~ number.
Among such features, the binding candidate list formula is a system whereby,
prior to an election, a political party submits a slate of party candidates
� in priority~order a~d, after the election, it designates as it winners the
' nu~ er of candidates equal to the number of seats allocated to the party.
It is a sy'stem widely used in elections which are under the proportional
- representation system. The electorate casts votes for the parties, using
the lists of candidates as reference.
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The contention of the LDP and the JSP in propos~ng to introduce the system
in the Upper House national district is that, apart from the excessive costs
incurred by the present system, the nature of the single national district
with its designated 50 seats renders it more readily adaptable to the pro-
portional representation system than the subdivided electoral districts of
the Lower House, or the regional districts of the Upper House.
if so, in the event proportional representation is adopted, how would the
seats of the various parties in the Upper Aouse national constituency be
changed?
The chart below is a hypothetical outcome of the allocation of Diet seats
based on votes polled in 1980 and 1977 by the various parties in the Upper
Hc,uae national district elections. It shows figures which would have
resulted if the binding candidate-list formula for proportional repre-
sentatiou had been used.
Hypothetical Election Results in Upper House National District Based on
Proportional Representation
. Revised
1980 Vote ~ Seated D'Hondt St Lague Hare
LDP 42.5 ~1 24 22 21
JSP 13.1 9 7 7 7
Komeito 11.9 9 6 6 6
DSP ~ 6.0 4 3 � 3 3
JCP 7.3 3 4 4 4 .
NLC 0.6 0 0 0 0
SDL- 1.1 0 0 0 ~ 1
Minor parties/ 17.4 4 - - - ~
Independents
Breakdown of Minor Parties/Independents
Fusae Ichikawa 5.0 1 2 3 3
Yukio Aoshima 4.0 1 2 2 2
Chinatsu Nakayama 2.8 1 1 2 1
Ryokichi Minobe 2.1 1 1 1 1
Columbia Top 1.0 0 0 0 1
1977
LDP 35.8 18 20 19 18
JSP 17.4 10 10 9 9
Komeito 14.2 9 8 7 7
DSP 6.7 4 3 4 3
,7CP 8.4 3 4 4 4
NLC 3.9 1 2 2 2
SCL 2.8 1 1 1 2
Minor parties/ 10.8 4 - - -
Independents
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~ Revised
Vote X Seated D'Hondt St Lague Hare
~ Breakdown
PLL 2.7 1 1 1 2
~ Chinpei Nozue 1.9 1 1 1 1
~ Hideta Yashiro 1.7 1 0 1 1
Keizo Takahashi 1.5 1 0 1 1
' (Minor party/Independent counted as a political party or organization.)
There are many types of praportional representation systems. However, only
three types are included in the chart: the D'Hondt formula proposed by the
LDP, the revised St Lague formula proposed by the JSP and the comparatively
easy-to-understand Hare f ormula.
As the hypothetical f igures show, adoption of the D'Hondt formula would
clearly be advantageous to the ruling LDP, while the advantage would be less
if the revised St Lague or Hare formula were adopted.
, Of course, it remains highly questionable whether it is right to take the
total votes of a given party, which under present practices is an accumula-
tion of votes garnered by its individual candidates, and make a comparison
with a system based on a slate of candidates unc~er which votes are cast for
the party. The reason is, although the slate of candidates is used as
reference, the fact that the votes are cast for the party invites the
possibility that the voter trends would be quite different from the past.
; Therefore, the pluses and minuses for the various parties in cas.~ of a
change to the proportional representation system cannot be ~udged unquali-
f iedly. However, from the standpoint of the Komeito, which today conducts
the most efficien~ elections, the proportional representation system would
clearly be disadvantageous, no matter what method of computation is used.
For example, in the 1980 elections, all 9 Komeito candidates were e~ected
with a total of 6.67 million votes. Under the proportional representation
system, this would result in six seats, regardless of the method of com-
putation used. While one seat today equals an average of 740,00 votes, a
~ seat under the proportional representation system would require about 1
million votes. Therefore, the Komeito's favorite tactic of splitting the
votes and placing its winners in a cluster in the middle to lower rankings
would be impractical.
The JSP has hitherto been basically agreeable to the introduction of the
proportional representation system. However, at the party convent~on in
early February, critical opinions emerged, saying: "It might prove to be
disadvantageous" or "Are we to follow in the LDP's footsteps?" and it was
dec ided to take another look. ~
As pointed out by critics at the party convention, the hypothetical fig~nres
show that it would be more disadvantageous to the JSP than the present
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system under any formula except the D'Hondt formula of 1977. Furthermore,
the party appeared to be expressing deference toward the Komeito and the
Democratic Socialist Party (DSP), which are cooperating with each other in
opposing the introduction of the proportional representation system in the
Upper House/regional districts.
Points of Issue in Introduction of Sys:em
Notwithstanding this and despite its advantage to the small political
paxties, compared to the D'Hondt formula, the reason the JSP is proposing �
the revised St Lague type of proportional representation is that the
national district election, which requires such enormous campaign funds ae
to be cynically dubbed the "money-harsh district," has become a burden to
the JSP. Furthermore, it was probab ly due to the ~udgment that it could
attract a wider range of candidates than the present candidates who con-
sist almost entirely of former labor union cadres, and that it could ~
muster a much wider support in votes by competing as the principal opposi-
_ tion party.
As for the revised LDP proposal, there are m3ny problems pertaining to the
treatment of Ghe minor parties and independents.
_ The candidates of the minor parties and independents, excluding the seven
ma~or parties, placed four winners in 1980 with 17.4 percent of the total
~ votes and four winners in 1977 with 10.8 percent of the votes. A~rial
- count of the 1980 election, based on the D'Hondt formula, shows that, if
such parties as a"Fusae Ichikawa Party" or a"Yukio Aoshima Party" had
existed, they would have won a total of six seats. However, according to
the LDP proposal, it is conceivable that even the candidates with that many
votes might have lost out. The reason is that the LDP proposal makes it
mandatory to assume the form of a political party or organization in order
to run in an election. Also, the conditions to run are: to h~;;e polled ~
more than 4 percent of the votes in a recent national election, to h3ve 5 ~
or more Diet members in its ranks, or to f ield a min:tmum of 10 candidates,
- including national and local districts. .
In this respect, the JSP proposal has eased its conditions for the partici-
pation in elections by political parties and organizations. It requires
recent election returns of 2 percent, three Diet members and a slate of
five candidates.
The recent votes obtained by the minor parties and independents reflect
a critical attitude among the electorate who are dissatisfied with the
establisYced political parties.
Therefore, in revising the national district system, it seems important
that care should be taken not ta ignore the wishes of the voters.
[Appendix]
D'Hondt formula--The winners in each party are decided by dividing the
total votes by the whol~e numbers 1, 2, 3...in order. Then, beginning with
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the largest quotient, the results are placed in order, up to the desig-
nated number of Diet seats allocated. The aim is to average out the num-
ber of votes per sent insofar as possible. The formula is adopted in
West Germany.
Revised St Lague formula--Instead of the whole numbers used in the D'Hondt
formula, odd numbers such as 1.4, 3, 5, etc., are used as divii:ers.
~ Whereas the D'Hondt formula is advantageous to the larger parties, the
St Lague formula uses only odd numbers. However, in order to avoid a
flood of smaller parties, it has been revised to begin with the ~ivider
1.4. The formula is used in the northern European countries.
Hare formula--Although the method of computation differs, the percentage of
votes won by each political party (for example, 50 percent, which is
represented as 0.5) is multiplied by the designated number of seats in
the district, and the whole number portion of the resulfing figure is
translated into the number of seats won. The remaining seats are dis-
tributed in order, b eginning with the party with the largest fractional
number. The problem is, a winner could emerge from a party with extremely
few votes. Therefore, few countries have adopted this formula.
COPYRIGHT: Yomiuri Shimbunsha 1982
5884
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
PREREQUISITES OF ELECTION DISTRICT REFORM ANALYZED
Tokyo NIHON IC~IZAI SHIMBUN in Japanese 8 Apr 82 p 2
[Text] A bill for reform of the Upper House national electoral district has
become the~focal point of Diet deliberation, following the establishment of .
the budget. This is because, in addition to Prime Minister ouzuki's deep in-
terest in having the bill passed by the current Diet, a meeting of minds has
been reached between the Liberal Democratic Party [LDP] and the Japan Social-
ist Party [JSP] with regard to reform3.ng of the system by introducing a pro-
portional representation system based on a slate of party candidates in the
Upper House national district. However, all of the opposition parties except
for the LDP [as published] and the JSP are against the bill, and under such
conditions, it would not be advisable to deal forcefully with a problem in-
volving basic political rules, such as the electoral system. Appropriate
political conditions are prerequisites for the realization of any reform bill.
One prerequisite is that it is not desirable for a decision to be made merely
on the basis of agreement between the LDP and the JSP,,but that it should
take the form of a bill which could win the support of at least one other
party. The second prerequisite is that although there is not much time before
the regular Upper House elections in the summer of next year, the Upper House
national constituency system shouln not be dealt with alone, but should be
considered together with the revision of seats in the Lower and Upper Hotise
local districts.
Being cautious regarding the reform of these systems does not mean that we
are opposed to the reform. The fact fs, many references have already been
made regarding the shortcomings of the present Upper House national constitu- '
ency system, and it is high time some solution is reached. From the stand-
point of the voters, it is not easy to pick one candidate out of nearly 100
candidates in a single voting district. Also, from the standpoint of the
candidates, great physical energy and enormous campaign funds are necessary,
~ because the entire nation constitutes a single electoral district. And in
conclusion, there is the lamentable fact that a candidate in the national dis-
trict cannot run unless he has organizaLtonal backing or is a celebrity in
the performing arts.
The bill for reform of the national district submitted by the LDP and the JSP
was conceived as a method of correcting these shortcomings. The m~rits of
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the reform proposal were considered to be, first, the alleviation of personal
financial burdens and phqsical wear and tear on the part of the candidates, by
ir.troducing a proportional representation system in the national district and
removing the coloring of a single-candidate election. The second prerequisite
is to make possible the candidacy of persons with good sense who faced diffi-
culty in the past, by having the respective parties submit a list of their can-
didates in priority order according to their previous election victories.
However, the LDP proposal has the aforementioned merits on the one hand, but
drawbacks on the other. The problems pointed out during the Diet delibera-
tions last fall were: 1) Since the proposal is premised on elections center-
ed on the political parties and precludes the candidacy of independents, it
violates Article 14 (equality under the law), Article 15 (freedom of candi-
dacy), and Article 21 (freedom of nonalignment). 2) The introduction of pro-
portional representation expedites the party politicization of the Upper
House. 3) The basis of the reform proposal in stipulating party rules is am-
biguous. 4) The~ adoptir,n of candidate lists will tend to encourage the pre-
ferred treatment oi incumbents. 5) It is questionable whether enough inter-
est could be raised among the electorate when the personal factor is igi:~red.
As for the theory ~i unconstitutionality advanced in the opposition arguments,
many theories appear to stress that the constitution recognizes the existence
of political pai~ies as an indispensable factor for the facilitation of demo-
cratic government, and that the adoption of proportional representation is
not unconstitutional. However, if the strength of the opposing arguments and
the degree of suspicion he13 by the opposition parties regarding the LDP's
intent are taken into consideration, it would seem that it is at least neces-
sary to get the aforementioned two conditions straight before any reform is
attempted.
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Keizai Shimbunsha 1982
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POLITICAI, AND SOCIOLOGICAL
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT FACTION OF LDP ON RISE
Tokyo MAINICHI SHi~!BUN in Japanese 29 Mar 82 p 2
[TextJ Former prime ministers Tanaka and Fukuda, who have virtually total
influence within the LDP, have become counselors of the Diet Members' Union
for the Realization of an Autonomous Constitution (former prime minister
Nobusuke Kishi, chairman), which is promoting constitutional amendment. The
constitutional amendment issue is once again in the limelight. At present,
the LDP's Constitutional Research Council (former 3ustice minister Setoyama,
chairman) is divided inta subcommittees, and each subcommittee has been con-
ducting specific studies on a draft of an amended constitution. Each subcom-
mittee is supposed to conclude its study by June, and the council expects to
write a draft this fall. Since the LDP does not have the two-thirds ma~ority
in the Diet required to propose constitutional a~endments, i�t is not in a
- position to move toward constitutional amendment immediately. But why has
"the issue of constitutional amendment" been brought forth now? One reason
is its relation to the U.S. request to strengthen Japan's capability to de-
fend sealanes. Some LDP members also intend to promote canstitutional de-
bates while the LDP has the ma~ority, and thereby to try to arouse public
opinion. We have explored these movements within the LDP....
Chairman Setoyama of the Constitutional Research Council visited Prime Minis-
- ter Suzuki at the Prime Minister's official residence on the 26th with his
recently published book, entitled "Discourses on Constitutional Amendment,"
and talked to the Prime Minister for 30 minutes. He reported that the basic
policy of the council would be to write a draft of ari amended constitution
this fall. In the meeting he described the necessity for constitutional
amendment in the following way:
"After the war, the occupation government started raising the premature baby,
Japan, in an incubator. Now Japan has already reached the prime of manhood.
Japan's GNP is third in the world. In spite of this, Japan still walks in
the world wearing the diaper of a constitution which ;aas provided by the
occupation government. Voices have been rising all over the world asking
Japan to assume its international role in security, trade, and other fields.
Our country, which is now in the prime of manhood, must carry out its respon-
sibilities. Constitutional amendment is one of our responsibilities."
To this, the Prime Minister is said to have given no particular response.
Mr Setoyama's ob~ective is to place the constitutional amendment issue among
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Japan's international responsibilities. In a meeting with the Prime Minister
on the 27th, U.S. Secretary of Defense Weinberger asked Japan to share in the
defense of the North Pacific region and requested that Japan increase its
capability to defend the sealanes for 1,000 nautical miles. People like Mr
Setoyama who are pushing for constitutional amendment judge that the constitu-
tional amendment issue cannot be avoided if Japan is to respond to these U.S.
requests for a strengthening of Japan's defensive capabilities. Earlier,
over SO LDP members endorsed the Hundred Person Commiittee Asking for Revision
of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. Mr Setoyama's point is in principle the
same as the committee's assertion that "the security treaty should be revised
' so as to make it bilateral in nature, if Japan is to carry out its interna-
tional role."
As far as movements within the LDP are concerned, the expansion of the Diet
Members' Union for Realization of an Autonomous Constitution has encouraged
the constitutional amendment faction. In May 1979, there were 178 LDP members
who belonged to the Diet Members' Union. Since the overwhelming victory in
_ 1980's double election of both houses, however, membership has been increas-
ing. At present it numbers 295, including independent former prime minister
Tanaka; this is over two-thirds of the whole LDP.
Moreover, because former prime ministers Tanaka and Fukuda have become coun-
selors and three important party officials, such as Secretary General Nikaido,
have become vice chairmen, the Diet Meml~ers' Union will change its charac-
teristics.
At a joint meeting of the Constitutional Research Council and the Diet Members'
Union held on the 24th, a draft of the declaration which will be read at a
national convention sponsored by the Diet Members' Union on 3 Ma.y was discuss-
ed. A,draft prepared by the executive office was examined. The following
opinion was expressed, and they decided to reexamine the draft later. "When
we assert [the need for a] constitutional amendment, it tend~ to be taken
as a revival of militarism or as a complete amending of the Constitution. We
should make it clear that we want to protect pacifism and democracy. It is
also necessary to write a phrase calling for amendment by the people." They
said that this was the first time they had had this sort of debate about the
declaration. It can be observed that their approach is to place the greatest
emphasis on rousing public opinion.
On the other hand, there are some who view coolly the rtse of debate on con-
- stitutional amendment. "The constitutional amendment issue is one of the
questions that the LDP should address after it has obtained an overwhelming
majority. Nobody thinks the time is now ripe for a constitutional amendment.
_ Because the number of young Diet members born in the Showa era has been in-
creasing, isn't this debate intended to rouse a mood for constitutional amend-
ment while in the majority, and not to let the constitutional amendment move-
ment wither but to hand it down?" (a Diet member belonging to the Showa Soci-
ety to Think about the Constitution). There are eight members in four sub-
committees of the Constitutional Research Council (which has 40 members) who
do not belong to the Diet Members' Union. Chairman Kamimura of the Constitu-
tional General Subcommittee wrote a trial draft of the preamble to the
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constitution, but different opinions were presented one after another. Here-
after, each subcommittee will discuss spec3fic matters, such as "how to revise
each item." In an item-by-item discussion, it is expected that a wide variety
of opinions will be presented.
COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Shimbunsha 1982
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F'0'LITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
j ~
~
SUZUKI DENUNCIATION OF'CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT PUZZLING
Tokyo SANKEI SHIMBUN in Japanese 29 Mar 82 p 2
[Text] Prime Minister Suzuki recently "denounced" by name
the activities of the Diet Members' Union for Realization
, of an Autonomous Constitution (former prime minister Nobusuke
Kishi, chairman), of which the LDP's constitutional amendment
faction forms the nucleus. This created a stir in the LDP.
In particular, the Diet Members' Union had ~ust received
former prime ministers Tanaka and Fukuda as counselors and
was on the point of developing an active movement toward
"constitutional a~endment," along with the party's Constitu-
tional Research Council (Mitsuo Setoyama, chairman). Some
' members are asking if "the Prime Minister has forgotten the
; campaign policies and the party declaration adopted at the
party's convention in January." The Prime Minister, who
had instructed the party's Constitutional Research Council
to write a draft of a revised constitution, and who for a
time had showed a positive attitude toward constitutianal
amendment, has reversed course again. There seems to be
' something behind all this.
The Prime Minister summoned Chairman Setoyama to the Prime Minister's offi-
, cial residence on the 26th and demanded that the party's Constitutional Re-
search Council be "prudent," saying: "We have not written a draft yet. If a
body like the Diet Members' Union for Realization of an Autonomous Constitu-
tion talks boisterously without a draft, we could be criticized as scheming
for rearmament or a military draft system."
The members of the Diet Members' Union who heard this took the Prime Minis-
ter's words as a"denunciation." They seem to have a hard time figuring out
what his true intentions were, commenting: "At this late stage, what did he
mean by calling us by name and saying that 'we were talking boisterously~?"
The Diet Members' TJnion is proud of its large membership--over two-thirds of
the LDP membership of both houses. They understand that "establishment of an
autonomous constitution is the party's just cause, and therefore any act to
~ ignore it is a violation of a campaign promise." Since former ~ustice minis-
ter Okuno spoke of constitutional amendment last year, the Diet Members' Union
has engaged in vigorous activity. Last October it presented a trial draft of
, amendments for 10 items for which it has been seeking partial revision. At
~ u
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the LDP convention held in January, "es~ablishment of an autonomous constitu-
tion" was included among the campaign policies and in the party declaration.
Moreover, the party's Constitutional Research Council has started writing a
draft. Consequently, the members of the union were encouraged ~o think that
the time had come for the party as a whole to campaign for constitutional
amendment.
Against this background, it is inevitable that Prime Minister Suzuki's "denun-
ciation" appeared to the Diet Members' Union to be an act [intended] to dis-
courage the constitutional amendment movement. In fact, at the liaison meet
ing between the administration and the ruling party on the 24th, the Prime
Minister warned Secretary General Nikaido "to be prudent about the constitu-
tional amendment movement." Moreover, on the next day, the 25th, the Prime
Minister asked former prime minister Fukuda, through the secretary general, to
approve consideration of the constitutional amex~dment movement in a prudent
manner, since the time is not yet ripe." ' �
As for former prime ministers Tanaka and Fukuda becoming counselors of the
Diet Member's Union, the opposition parties have already initiated the criti-
cism that "Suzuki's public promise not to revise the constitution has been re- �
vealed to be false." In addition, the protect-the-constitution faction within
the LDP has been asserting the need for prudence on the issue of constitutional
amendment. Therefore, the Prime Minister's changing attitude could make it
appear that "he has been eY~.anging his position" sheerly ~ut of a desire to pro-
tect himself. Furthermore, he is concerned because "opinion within th~ party
may split over the issue of constitutional amendment, and as a result the
political situation this fall will include many disturbances."
One leading member of the Diet Members' Union said: "The significance of
former prime ministers Tanaka and Fukuda becoming counselors is great. With
both Tanaka and Fukuda engaping in the establishment of an autonomous cons*_i-
tution, the ground within the LDP for constitutional amendment will become as
firm as a huge rock...." [This member] also seemed disappointed by the sud-
denly cold treatment from the Prime Minister.
Some have offered criticism: "Well, the Prime Minister was originally a mem-
ber of the Socialist Party. He merely repeats pacifism as a holy invocation."
Putting aside this criticism, it is natural for the Prime Minister, who wishes
to be reelected in this fall's LDP presidential election, to want to avoid
disturbances by any means. In spite of his wishes, however, even former prime
minister Tanaka, with whom Prime Minister Suzuki has a close relationship that
is indispensable for his reelection, recently began to talk publicly about
"constitutional amendment." The constitutional amendment movement has been
awakening. In this situation, the Prime Minister has confusedly applied the
brakes to the movement. This seems to be the truth.
The Prime Minister's attitude is "to not discuss constitutional amendment un-
til a draft is written." However, if politicians suddenly started debating
the issue of constitutional amendment after a draft had been written, it would
only confuse people. Henceforth, politicians should try to make a"receptive
plate" by continuously pointing out to the people the problems of the current
constitution and what needs to be revised. This seems to be the proper way to
build a national movement.
' COPYRIGHT: Sangyo Keizai Shimbun Tokyo Honsha 1982
9896 1~
CSO: 4105/85
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~ POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
i
!
~
~ PROBABILITY OF APRIL DIET DISSOLUTION DISCUSSED
Tokyo SHOKUN in Japanese Mar $2 pp 134-141
[Panel Discussion Among Four Anonymous Diet Member~: "Sudden Rumors About
Diet Dissolution in April"]
[Text] SHOKUN: In light of LDP Policy Affairs Research Council Chairman
Rokusuke Tanaka's outrageous statement, how does the name "Blabbermouth
Rokusuke" sound? ~
Diet member C: What? I'm not familiar with the details. What exactly did he
say? �
; SHOKUN: According to the Tokyo newspapers, he said something like this: "Your
question is whether, in the event of a guilty verdict, (the Tanaka faction will ~
come apart and) the political world wi11 be reorganized? Frankly speaking,
I think that an innocent verdict is doubtful. .I believe from'the bottom of
- my heart that it would be nice if (former prime minister) Tanaka were found
innocent, but this is doubtful. I wonder whether the Tanaka faction will
really be able to stay united (in the event of a guilty verdict). However, I
think that if the Tanaka faction is attacked from without, it will grow more
unified. (There are people) even today who, lacking commonsense, are 3oining
the Tanaka faction; what will become of them? Politicians are a different
breed (from those with the usual commonsense). As to whether the Tanaka
faction will collapse (in the event of a guilty verdict), I think the opposite
will happen. The Lockheed trial will continue endlessly, with appeal after
appeal, and as long as Tanaka is able to continue his political activities, he
will continue to do so. Don't you think so?" This is a statement which
Tanaka unexpectedly made during the question-and-answer session following a
speech entitled "The Present Political and Economic Situation."
Diet member B: NHK-TV disclosed the statement, and it caused a great stir.
"Heyt Rokusuke's done it again!" was the reaction.
Diet member D: A flustered Rokusuke tried to explain away his statement by
' holding a press conference at party headquarters, but it was too late.
Members of the Tanaka faction were furious.
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Diet member A; Nika3,do sup~oaedly sa~,d; ~~x don't want to see his face again."
~
B: There were even some who said that shutting the mouth of ~the blabbermouth ~
� chairman of the Policy Affairs Reseaxch Counc~l should have priority over ~
adntinistrative reform. ;
A; That was Ryutaro Hashimoto. . '
C: From Rokusuke's point of view, however, it probably was 3ust a case of the
truth suddenly coming out.
B: Right. Although the subtitle of this series of articles is not "Nagatacho's
[Name of the street where the official residence of the Prime Minister is
located] True Feelings," it would fit.
C; It would have been more conimendable if Rokusuke had shown a defiant
attitude and had asked what was ~wong with telling the truth.
_ "Guilty Tanaka" Is "Nagatacho's True Feelings"
D: There is also another view. One analysis holds that this statement might
have been a carefully conceived plan on the part of Rokusuke Tan~ka to.lower
the image of Kakuei Tanaka and his followers, so as to help the reelection of
Suzuki.
A: Rokusuke, the loyal retainer. (laughs)
B: That's too farfetched. Unfortunately for Suzuki, he has no confidant at
present within the Kocki-kai [One of the LDP's "policy groups" (i.e. factional
support organizations), originally founded by late Prime Minister Hayato Ikeda
in the late 1950's; but now identified as a support group for Prime Minister
Zenko Suzuki.] who is that loyal to him. His faction is in a considerable
uproar over the Ichi-Roku war and the Ni-Roku war.
SHOKUN: Ni-Roku war?
B: Kiich~� Miyazawa versus Rokusuke is the Ichi-Roku war, and Heiji Ogawa
versus Rokusuke is the Ni-Roku war. Zenko's ability to control his faction has
declined sharply. Rokusuke as a"loyal retainer" would be inconceivable.
D: What actually happened, no doubt,~ was that Rokusuke's smart-alecky nature
got the best of him, and he blurted out the truth.
A: Although "Guilty Tanaka" most certainly constitutes the "True Feelings of
Nagatacho," iti is a so-called taboo word around the Nagatcho village. For the
members of the Tanaka faction, in particular, it's clearly an expression of
discrimination. Although now it's a forbidden phrase for the mass media, in
the past there was a word for describing a physical defect. To those in the
Tanaka faction, it's as though that expression had been said. That's because
deep in their hearts they feel inferior for being associated with the Tanaka
faction. _
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B: While mention of "Guil.ty Tanaka" of course gets them.angry, it's also
said that the members af the Tanaka faction were angered by the statement:
"There are people even today who, lacking co~onsense, are joining the Tanaka
faction." In other words, they are angry because this seems to imply that
~oining the Tanaka faction shows.a lack of commonsense. (laughs)
D: It really doesn't seem like Rokusuke.
A: In person, he is good-natured and up on the latest information, so he is
a very interesting person. Sometimes, however, he is apt to be mistaken in
his ,judgement of the nature of an occasion. (laughs)
D: However, he is surely not a malicious person.
- B: Within the party, however, Rokusuke Tanaka is seen as a kind of upstart.
Although he has established himself as a new leader, there is a question as to
exactly what sort of track record this reputation is based on. Along with the
tumult of that double election, when it seemed as if the Obon and New Year's
holidays had come at the same time, came the death of Ohira; perhaps because
of all the confusion, everybody became very despondent. Rokusuke seized this
opportunity to work hard for the speedy creation of the Suzuki cabinet, and
that was nimble work for a politician, but that's about all he's done.
His skill was recognized, and he gained the posts of minister of international
trade and inbuatry and then of chairman of the Policy Affairs Research Council.
However, things seem to be going a little too smoothly for him.
D: He's jumped two or three ranks. The Fukuda faction and the Komoto faction
don't think too much of that, ei'ther.
B: That's the way it stood before his recent statement; now he's angered the
~anaka faction, too.
"Chase the Fleas on Your Own Head!" ~
A: One consolidation for Tanaka is the fact that he is in a party office and
not in a cabinet post. If he had been a member of the cabinet, the cabinet
probably would have withered away for lack of cooperation from the Tanaka
forces. That might have been true even with him in the party, but if he
had been in a' cabinet post, the work of the Suzuki government would have been
held up. At the very least, the work of his ministry would have been put on
hold.
C: Is it true that he went to Mejiro [a district of Tokyo where former Prime
Minister Kakuei Tanaka lives] to make an earnest apology?
A: It's true. And not only to Me~iro; it's said that he went in succession to
the places of all the leaders of the Tanaka faction, from Nikaido's place to
Takeshita's and those of the others, to explain himself.
B: Kakuei supposedly spoke very curtly to him, and said something like:
"Before saying something about another person, look for the fleas on your head."
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A: "Mister LD~ of k~eji~o" would like to win-~an elect~on befoie the guilty
verdict is passed down in the Lockheed tri,al, because i~ he is ahle to change
the political situation prior to that, he will be able to change the political
situation prior to that, he will be able to pursue his "struggle" for the next
4 years. ~
SHOKUN: You mean to say that there's going to be an election this year?
A: That's right. Sensing such an odor from Me3iro, eveybody is hurrying to
prepare himself for the war to come at any time.
C: The opposition parties see the political showdown as coming in 1982 and
not in 1983.
A: Although Tanaka's arrest was an event which shook heaven and earth, a guilty
verdict is a preordained event which cannot be avoided. For Kakuei Tanaka,
this will be more damaging politically than his arrest. If, in boxing terms,
the arrest is a punch taken in the first,round, the guilty verdict will be like
a punch taken in the late rounds of the fight, so it will have the same
effect as a blow to the legs and the stomach.
B: The long-awaited return to power, which he has been developing step by
step--with the mass media his enemy the whole while--would be reversed. If an
election were then to be held under such circumstances~ it wouldn't be a
normal handicap either for Tanaka himself or for those around him. By all
means, therefore, they want to have an election prior to the verdict.
D: The court hearings will end in April or May. At the earliest, the decision
will be made within the year. With this kind of trial, ~hen, that means it
may take up to a year to write up the court decision. Therefore, it will be
next year.
A: For Kakuei Tanaka, therefore, a dissolution of the Diet this year is a
political necessity.
C: Shouldn't the election take place prior to the end of the hearings rather
than prior to the verdict? The Me~iro people may be thinking about trying
an election before the prosecution makes its final arguments and calls for
criminal penalties.
A: I've heard that, too.
D: So, that means this April or May?
A: No, because another of Me~iro's desires is to see how long they can put off
the trial's coming to an end. Although only those involved probably know the
truth, Enomoto's illness ever since last summer may also have been a
precautionary measure taken for the purpose of postponing the tr~al's
conclusion. 1'he mass media are clamoring for an early conclusion to the
trial, but as I said in our meeting prior to the last one, I do not think
there will be an early end to the trial. As one might expect, the Me3iro
people are involved in putting it off.
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C: Although an election which came after the prosecution~s final argument
and call for punishment would not be as bad as an election after a guilty
verdict, it would still be a painful situation for the Mejiro people. It is
- conceivable, therefore, that they will try for a Diet dissolution priar to the
conclusion of the trial.
B: Although "Mister LDP of Mejiro" has continually fought over *_he political
timetable, including getting Nikaido the position of party secretary general,
he has gathered 108 people together and, moreover, has made Nikaido secretary
general; thus he has prepared a system which will enable him to have a
dissolution whenever he wants one. All that remains is the questian of when
he intends to time the dissolution. Everyone, including the opposi[ion parties,
' is hanging in suspense on his everq breath.
A: Therefore there is the possibility that, rather than after this coming
autumn, dissolution will happen unexpectedly around the time the budget is
approved. With the Diet atmosphere of confrontation over an income-tax
reduction, or an administrative reform, or a budget revision, there may very
well be some discontented people who would say: "What a hassle!" or "Shove it!"
5HOKUN: So, when would this be? ~
A: This spring, around April.
D: That would be awful.(laughs)
A: In other words, it means that Kakuei Tanaka has that much power and that
Zenko Suzuki the man has that close and deep a relationship with Kakuei.
In addition, Suzuki and Nikaido have such a close relationship that they have
been Siamese twins or identical twins. Probably even Suzuki would not go so
far as to turn the nation upside down to save Kakuei Tanaka, but ~re will try
to keep in step with Tanaka as much as possible. That's because such action
would also benefit Zenko Suzuki.
B: The Siizuki cabinet has yet to consult the will of the people even once.
If the will of the people, who are soverign, were to be consulted, the Fukuda
faction, the Nakasone-Komoto faction, and the ogposition parties would not be
able to offer any opposition in the face of such a mandate.
Either Way Is the Road to Hell
A: For Zenko Suzuki, being anointed by the people would be a more certain
route to reelection than a battle for the party presidency. In short, Fukuda
was replaced by Ohira because he lost a stupid fight that he waged only
within the LDP pond. If the Fukuda cabinet had won a general election, there
would have been no need to replace a prime minister and party president who had
been chosen in a general election 2 months later in an LDP presidential
election. Because he stirred up a tempest in the LDP teacup, Fukuda had no
choice but to bow out. If he had thrown his net wider and had sought a fight
in the ocean of a general election, he would have stayed in power for another
2 years.
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Zenko Suzuki likewise is not 100 percent sure of reelection~ and because his
reel.ection is doubtful without the cooperation o� Kakuei Tanaka, he should
follow a line that is in accordance with the wishes of Tanaka. Should he go
for a general election, or should he choose a presidential eleetion within the
party? Whichever route he chooses is a road to hell. However, I think Yre will
choose the more certain route.
SHOKUN: So you're saying he will choose a general election?
A: I think so. Suzuki's true desire is to call for dissolution in as
natural a way possible, and in a situation unrelated tio the Lockheed trial.
This is also the strategy of the Tanaka faction.
B: If this is done in a clumsy fashion, the opposition parties will attack,
calling it a"dissolution to cover up Lockheed." ,
A: Nevertheless, if it comes to there being no time for a natural way, Me3iro
will use brute force.to bring about a dissolution.
D: However, even though 108 people have been brought togeth~r and Nikaido has
been made secretary general, obtaining a dissolution will still require sound
~ustification. ,
A: There are any number of sound ~ustifications lying around. (laughs) One
never knows when an accident might happen. That's the reason for living in the
political world. ~
B: Suzuki wants to have a dissolution on an occasion unrelated to Lockheed,
while Tanaka wants to have a dissolution ~ust prior to the prosecution's
argument and call for punishment, so as to lengthen the period of his "struggle."
A: In boxing terms, he wants to gamble on fighting in the later rounds.
_ SHOKUN: In the Lockheed trial, the testimony on his receiving money has
ended, and the trial probably will turn now into a battle over the issue of
a prime minister's official 3urisdiction. According to today's newspapers,
however, the debate over official jurisdiction is going to be postponed due to
the need for further preparation.
A: That's what we have been saying since last year. The mass media said that
Tanaka's strategy is to have the trial end quickly and then to eliminate the
remaining symptoms as quickly as possible. However, that is a mistake on the
part of the mass media.
Dissolution in Order To Escape Lockheed Verdict
SHOKUDI: In our last session, somebody said this: Kakuei Tanaka gathered 108
people together and made Nikaido secretary general because, when the verdict
appears as guilty, the opposition parties will submit a resolution calling
on Tanaka to resign from the Diet. When that happens, the LDP, arguing over
this, will break up in a so~called "Kakuei split." When that happens, he will
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have Nikaido put the party back in oxder, with the support o~ his 108 people.
Somebody explained the situation's significance in that light.
A: If it can be done, the dissolution and general election will probably
take place before that happens. Even if a resolution appeared calling for his
resignation, however, it would be shelved in the Diet Steering Committee and,
as in the cases of questioning Daisaku Ikeda and Ken3i Miyamoto, it would
never take place. It would be interesting, however, if the mass media were
' to take a poll of all the members of the Diet to find out whether they supported
or opposed the idea.
C: T~he hidden Tanaka faction people would all surface, and the pro-Tanaka and
anti-Tanaka groups would be clearly identified.
, SHOKUN: Who would submit the call for Tanaka's resignation?
B: Probably the Japan Socialist Party.
SHOKUN: If the Steering Committee quashed the resolution, and if the mass
media then took a poll, what would be the response of the LDP Diet members?
D: The ma~ority would reply: "No comment."
C: As for me, if such a poll were taken, I probably would have to say I
_ supported it. Politics is not such that it would improve with the arrest of
that or.e old guy, but crime deserves punishment, so it probably can't be
helped.
B: If a resolution calling for his resignation were to appear, the one most
shocked by it would be Tanaka himself. That's because there already are
restrictions on his activities in the official sphere. As for the case of
Daisaku Ikeda, he is now confined by a mass media campaign. They're like a
kind of jailkeeper. There's the danger that Kakuei will be jumped on under
the same conditions. The only one who will 3~e able to command authority at
that time will be Nikaido. '
SHOKUN: A little while earlier, there was talk of the possibility of
dissolution in April: Are there a lot of people who believe this?
A: In both the ruling and opposition parties, almost everyone thinks that it
would not be an unusual political development, were a dissolution to take
place anytime after April.
B: It depends on Tanaka's intentions.
A: A dissolution in autumn would not be a natural dissolution, and probably
would be a staged dissolution. It would be called a"dissolution to escape
the Lockheed verdict." However, if it took place around April~ it would be
a dissolution~not necessarily linked to the Lockheed situation.
SHOKUN: What would be the ~ustification for a dissolution after the budget
had been adopted?
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A: It could be justified in any r.umber of ways, For example, overturning one
table in the conference of the ruling and opposition partiesx~policy committee
chairmen would ~ustify dissolution. Calling the Prime~Minister a"fool" would
3ustify dissolution. (laughs)
It Has Come Down to "Balancing Accounts"
B: For some reason, whPn the new year began, everyone seeme~~ ready to run
away. Such an atmosphere serves to help Tanaka. Without a doubt, there will
be a dissolution. If everyone looks the other way, however, everyone will be
. able to serve out his term in office. Therefore, even thovgh no one dances
_ unless Tanaka plays the music, I wonder whether they will f;o along with the
mood being created by the Tanaka faction? ,
C: Even the opposition parties, for some reason, havp caken it seriously and
are ready for a fight. They give the impression of tremblingly holding aloft
their swords (laughs), and saying: "Come on! Come on! You enemy of my
parents!" They do this even though there is great danger of their being .
killed by the enemy they pursue. As a result, everyone is helping Kakuei
Tanaka's "Lockheed verdict coverup." Everyone is cooperating in his fight over
the timetable.
~ SHOKUN: Usually, Diet members would rather not have a dissolution and general
elections if they can be avoided. Right? The double elections were in June
the year before last, so they will have been in office a full 2 years come June.
Lven though there is still plenty of time left before the end of their term,
why is there a feeling that there must be a disaolution?
A: As one might expect, it is because the Diet is influenced by both internal
and external factors. Those who now wear Diet member ID badges think, of
course, that they would like to be there as l.ong as possible, and that it
would be best not to dissolve the Diet. Ho;vever, there are large groups of
people who have lost elections and people who want to be elected for the
first time, and they are waiting for dissolution to happen as quickly as
possible. They're getting cold waiting outside, and it's time to let them in;
it's time for player substitutions! (laughs) These people gradually begin to
make a move, and when that happens, those in the Diet begin to feel as if a
fire had been lit under their seats. (Laughs)
B. Just have Kakuei Tanaka, or even someone of the status of Nikaido or
Noboru Takeshita, take Saturday and Sunday and go speaking around the country
two or three times. Suddenly, those in the Diet will all be in the mood for
dissolution. When that happens, even the Prime Minister or Takeo Fukuda won't
be able to stop it. This is because, if they go to one person's place to give
him support, everybody in that prefecture will say that this means dissolution,
that this m=ans war--and they will qui~ckly get in the mood to prepare for
battle.
SHOKUN: This changes the sub3ect, but what's happening with the so-called
administrative reforms? .
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D: There is a strong possibility now that ultimately things will come to the
point where Doko, chairman of the Ad Hoc Commission, will let loose with a
letter of resignation and leave. As can be seen in the differences over
economic policy between Finance Minister Watanabe and Economic Planning
Agency Director General Komoto, the lack of unity within the cabinet has
already been revealed. Komoto is making his pet argument that, while
administrative reform should not be dropped in favor of ineasures to counter
the recession, if such countermeasures are not taken, fiscal rehabilitation
will not be possible. Ultimately, however, both Komoto and Watanabe are
forgetting about administrative reform. In the beginning, it was administrative
reform, but it became fiscal reform without anyone's being aware of it. Now~
fiscal rehabilitation alone has become the most important topic. In short,
they are concerned totally from beginning to end with adding up the Finance
Ministry's figures or with balancing the accounts. Such issues as how,to
solve the so-called decline in adminis.trative services, what to do about the
National Railways, what to do about the food surplus programs, and how to cut
out the unnecessary parts of government have all been put somewhere and
forgotten.
B: The issue of reducing personnel and reducing bureaucracy also has
disappeared somewhere. Instead, it has all turned into a matter of balancing
accounts rather than of reducing expenditures.
C: That's why policy contradictions have appeared. Therefore, no matter when
the trigger is pulled, there are,factors that could greatly upset the
political situation, and these are not limited to dissolution or to the
results of the Lockheed trail. Such factors do exist.
Things Will Move After the Budget Is Approved
D: Because Zenko Suzuki has staked his political life on administrative reform,
he will have to eat his words if that does not happen. Looking at the
timetable, therefore, when wl.11 the opposition parties start moving toward
thinking that the time has come for him to eat his words?
C: This could come as early as mid-March.
' A: However, both the ruling and the opposition parties have the problem of
business conditions and the problem of the nation's economy, so they cannot
try anything risky like dissolution in February or March. For better of for
worse, the budget will be approved within the fiscal year, and then the
political maneuverings wi11 start in earnest.
B. At this rate, if a revenue shortfall deveiaps because of the zero ceiling
provision, a whole batch of government bonds will have to be issued again.
If that happens, the question wi11 be raised ag,ain that it might have been
better to bravely reduce taxes by even 1 tri~l.'~on yen in order to stimulate
= the economy and to seek increased revenut~ : om that.
SHOKUN: Is the government bond deficit r~o~,~ 80 trillion yen?
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B; Yes. Up until recentlyi it was said to be some 60 trillion yen. Therefore,
each and every person, including newborn infant~, bears the responsibility for
_ 600,000-700,000 yen in debts. The average household eaet~ bears the burden of
2.5 million yen in debts. Something has to be done a~iout this national debt.
However, if public works get zero, and this gets ze'ro, and that gets zero,
- then there will be nothing at all in increased revenues.
D; My wife and father often purchase government bonds, but are they safe?
(laughs)
_ B; They are patriots, aren't they? (laughs) Although this has not been
studied too carefully, there have been no cases in the past in which
government bonds have been turned in for their cash value.
C: Since the Mei~i government, government bonds were issued in considerable
quantities at the time of both the Russo-Japanese War and the Pacific War.
Historically, however, these have been turned into scrap paper more often than
not. Is that not right? Certainly there have been almost no cases of these
having been turned in. �
The Diet With a New Year's Hangover
SHOKUN: For the Diet member, is New Year`s time a time for gathering votes?
D: It's a crazy time.
C: You shouldn't talk about that here. Really! (laughs)
B: That's because New Year's time is a time for working away from home so
much that it's just as though the Obon and New Year's holidays came at the
~ same time. Industries' New Year's parties and the drinking parties of every
kind or organization--gatherings of 100 to 200 people~-are held at this time.
A meeting of 100.people at a Diet member's offire usually requires a month of
preparation and a total of around 1 million yen in expenditures. Because an
envelope with a"New Year'.s present" of 10,000 or 20,000 yen suffices, we
attend at all costs, even if it means going on a stretcher. One can't say
one is grounded because of having drunk too much New Year`s liquor, or that one
is off flying a kite, or even that one is in Hawaii on the only vacation of
the year.
A: Well, it's not the same as Yoshitsune's feat of leaping over eight boats,
but it's like being in the East today and in the West tomorrow. By consuming
it several tens of times, the next one comes easier. It's like winter Sumo
wrestling practice, so the legs get in shape. (laughs) It's like self-training
in pro baseball. (laughs) Those that don't do it, don't make out very well
once the season starts.
SH~KUN: You.do some 10 places in your own electoral district:
A: That's right. On really Cerrible occasions, you might have to manage 20
New Year's parties in one day.
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B: Somebody drunk on sake might say to you: "You! Won~t you take a drink of
- my sake? When and how did you ever become a Dfet member?" (laughs) Then, you
become his drunk companion, saying: "Yes. Yes. Thanks for the feast." (laughs)
C; Even if you exchange toasts with only half a hundred people, it's way too
, much.
A: Therefore, you put your head and your heart away in a safe place, and only
your body, given over to drink, staggers over here and over there. It's like
a dead spirit offering up liquor. (laughs)
~ C: If, for example, it takes 60,000 votes to be elected, that means 60 meetings
of,100 people each.
B: If your stomach and your liver aren't strong, you can't do it. (laughs)
A: Everyone is showing the initial symptoms of hardening of the liver.
~ C: Look at my hand. Have any spots appeared? ~(laughs)
D: If you think about it, this is not something a human being should be doing.
This business.
A: If you go to the Diet after the New Year's holidays are over, everyone has
a yellow-colored face. (laughs) Even the whites of their eyes have become
yellow. Everyone is in a daze because of the New Year's holidays.
B: Like Rokusuke Tanaka, therefore, they blurt out things they shouldn't.
COPYRIGHT: THE SHOKUN 1982
9844
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL ~ .
LDP'S POLITICAL GADFLY NAKAGAWA DISCUSSED .
- Tokyo THE DAILY YOMIURI in English 16 Apr 82 p 3
(Article by Kenji Kitahara]
[Text] ~e political situation, which was ~ a cert with politicians inside and ou~sine the
short time ago highly stable, !s showing LDP. .
signs ot possible upheavals becauae o! re- Naka~awa and riis assoclates are report-
venue shortfalls !n Sscal 1981, providing ed to be preparing ior a merger of the
tempting opportunities for a political Komoto, Fukuda and independent factiona
gadfly. o! . the LDP and the right wing o! the
Some diSiculties such aa verdicta !n the ~ 3ocialist Party (JSP).
Lockheed bribery trlals He in the path oi , OI course, it is improbable that Fukuda
Prime Minister Suznkl's campaign to wln' and Komoto would� back � auch as draatic
reelection aa president of the Liberal-De- political realignment.
mocratic Party (LDP) next No'vember. But those close to 3uzuki and the fac-
But Suzuki , must pay carelul attentlon � tion led by former premier ~akuei Tanaka .
to Ichiro Nakagawa. director-general of are nevertheless cautiouslq , watchiug Na-
the Science and Technology Agency. ~ kaga.wa.
Nakagawa once absented himsel! irom liecently' Nakagawa orten says that he
a Dlet session'. and criticized Suzuki over wlll take the lead in anq action since Ko-
the F4 flghter-interceptor remodeling moto cannot do. this easlly. This has led
issue. ~ to speculation that Nakagawa will try to
~ Nalcagawa is not really a direct, political dlsturb the political situation at every op-
threat to Suzuki. H!s iaction is not as portunity.
large as the one led by former premier In this political situation, the main-
Fukuda, who is discontented with the 3u- stream factions believe they can predict
zuk! administration, or the one headed by how Komoto and� Fukuda will behave by
Economic Planning Agency Director-Qen- observing the actlons of Nakagawa and
erai Toshio Komoto, who is aiming to be- Shintaro Ishihara, former director-general
come the leader o! the LDP. oi the Environment Agency, who is close
Rather .Nakagawa is feared because he to Nakagawa .
is a"provocateur" in the political . world ' What sets Nakagawa apart from other
and is e~ctremely energetic. politicians is his intense vitaAty and his
He is well known for his advocacy a! the � actions which sometimes seem ~to lack
theory of a"bipartisan conservative re- political sense. '
gime." He tried once to lorm a new con- International Trade and Industry Min-
servative party with Romoto as president ister Shintaro Abe, who is also is con-
on the occasion o! the twin �elections in sldered a~"new leader" o! the LDP~ is re-
- 1980. ported to be advising Nakagawa to be
Nakagawa 1s inttmate enough with Ikko patient and wait until the time is rlpe .
Kasuga. iormer chairman o! the Demo- for~ action. �
cratic- Socialist Purty (D3P), to call ,him ' There is no doubt that Premier Suzuki
his "comrade." and also some of � Nakagawa's supporters
It is believed that Nakagawa is pIotting are nervously waiting to see what Naka-
to jolt the Suzuki administration in con- gawa will do next.
COPYRIGHT: The Daily Yomiuri 1982
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL ~
KEIDANREN'S RECbMMENDATION FOR ADMINISTRATIVE REFQRM EDITORIALIZED.
Tokyo MAINICHI DAILY NEWS in English 19 Apr 82 p 2
� (Editorial]
[Text] . The Federation of Economic Organizations
_ (Keidanren) recently filed a recommendation with
the Second Ad Hoc Council on Administrative Reform ~
in an apparent gesture of shoring up the council from
the standpoint of the nation's industries. ~
The gist of the recommendation calls for 1)
adherence to the basic target designed to discontinue
the flotation of deficit-covering national bonds in
fisca11984, 2) carrying out a thoroughgoing review of
expenditures, 3) no more tax increases, 4) .the .
establishment of a minus ceiling in the compi~ation.of .
the fiscal 1983 national budget, 5) a review of the sub-
sidy system, and 6) adjustment or abolition of various
approval and licensing systems.
In ~ fact, the recommendation is designed to
realize the oft-publicized "small government" con-.
cept and boost "the vitality of the private sector."
The majority opinions in economic circles are
summarized in the recommendation, and there is
little doubt that it aims to extend support to President
Toshio Doko of the Council, who is the honorary ~
president of the all-powerful Keid~anren. In. a sense,
the. nation's economic world picked him for the
present post. and is obligated, to support him
wholeheartedly. ~
The recommendation emphasizes that the pur-
pose ot administrative reform is to delve into the
. highly inflated administ~ative systems of both the ~
central and local governments and realize a sim-
_ ~ plified, effective government, ease the tax burden~on
the people, and repel all moves that run counter to the
goal of the council, such as a tax increase. As a
matter or principle, there is nothing wrong with their
argument. On the other hand, however, we must
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question them as to their true intent concerning what
they call administrative reform:~.What do they ac-
' tually hope to gain by the proposed.reform?
To begin with, the recommendation smacks
~ highly of the. "philosophy of patience" advocated by
President Yoshihiro Inayama of Keidanren. His
concept is supported by most of the top leaders in the
nation's economic world. Under the circumstances it
is feared that only the ~tnasses will be compelled to �
exercise patience. '
~ Fiscal reconstruction without a tax increase ~has
long been a catchphrase of financial circles. As the
income tax cut was shelved this year, workers have to
virtually pay higher taxes. The flnancial world ap-
. pears to be quite indifferent to this reality. As such,
they m,~y have no excuse to offer, even for the
criticism that fiscal reconstruction without a tax
increase is nothing more than "fiscal reconstruction
without an increase in corporate taxes." ~
Secondly, the recommendation insisted that
expenditures should be reviewed from the ground up,
but it failed to touch on "increased defense spend'mg"
which caused a controversy in the ~Diet diseussions on '
the fiscal 1982 budget. Why did they remain silent
about this all-important issue?
. President Inayama has often stated that defense
and welfare should be dealt with separately, meaning
that preference should be given~to defense spend'rng
while applying the brake on welfare policies. His view
is gaining strength among the top echelon of the
financial circles. ~
The defense production subcommittee of
Keidanren, made up of arms manufacturers, earlier
submitted a request to the government and the
Liberal-Democratic Party.calling for an increase in
expenses for the research and development of arms
and other related items. Financial circles are
. definitely in favor of promoting arms. expansion, but
how can they make it compatible with a recom-
mendation which calls for a thorough review of ex-
penditures? ,
We are fully in accord with the idea of
_ strengthening "the vitality of the private sector," but
as we have already pointed out, a militarization ot the
economy through the promotion of arms expansion
will, in the long run, destroy the vitality of that sector.
We can hardly take sides with the fiscal and
~ administrative retorms proposed by the finaneial
circles if they are to give preferential treatment to the
defense buildup at the sacrifice of welfare. The ad-
- ministrative and fiscal reforms must be pushed
forward hand in hand with the masses. No reform is
possible without the participation of the entire nation.
COPYRIGHTa Mainichi Daily News 1982
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POLITICAL AND SOCIOLOGICAL
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SUZUKI GOVERNMENT~S POLICY REVISION PREDICTED
Tokyo MAINICHI DiAILY NEWS in English 21 Apr 82 p 2
~Nagatacho Doings coluam by Takehiko Takahashi: "Basic Revision of Economic
and Financial Policies?"~ .
~Text~
The Second Ad Hoc Council It is at such a time that Prtme
for Administrative fteform will Minister Zenko Suzuki ls
submit its basic recom- proclaiming "rehabilitation of
mendations at the~ end of July. public tinances without a tax
At that time the government increase."
will probably tind it necessary -
to take up a bastc revision of This means that withouf in-
economic and tinancial policies. creasing either direct taxes or
The tax revenue shortage in indirect taxes, the budget will
tiscal year 1981 is likely to be be compiled without the
between 2,283,300 million yen issuance of special bonds (red-
and 2,590,000 million. Moreover, ink natiopal bonds). The
it is predicted that if the present general view is that this is
economic conditions continue, impossible under the present .
the shortage in tax revenue in situation.
fiscal year 1982 also may If ~rime Minister Suzuki's
amount to 3 trillion yen (some intention is to be can'ted out,
say 4 trillion yen). expenses ( government ex-
Then for fiscal year 1983, as penddures) must be slashed to
a g a i n s t p r e l i m i n a r y correspond with the shortage in
calculations of the public tax revenue. This is being
tinancial balance, which the strongly demanded by Chair-
government has already man Toshiwo Doko ot the Ad
carried out, a tax shortage ot Hoc Council. .
2,900,000 million to 5 trillion yen For,eseen Long Ago .
is toreseen.
As can be seen trom these Chairman Doko says, "the
tigures, the government has government has not done
been pushed into a very paintul anything about the ad-
tinancial situation because of ~ ministration that became
the tax revenue shortage. No bloated during the period of
effective measures for over- high economic growth - it is
coming this situation are ~n strange for it to be saying now
si~ht. that there is a shortage in tax
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revenue. This situation could theSeven-YearEconomicPlan. taction, Director General ~
have been toreseen long ago." This plan anticipated a 5.5 Toshio Komoto has shown a
The government's attitude is percent growth. At this time ~ cautious attftude toward a
being severely criticized by when. a 3 percent growth is conversion ot pollcies. This is
Doko. He adds that "it is only atwut the best that can be ex- prnbably because he does not
natural tor t~~e [iscal '83 budget pected, it is a mistake to have want to mar Prime MlnJster
to be dratted with a minus this kind ot a medium-growth S u z u k i' s s! o g a n o t
ceiling." plan. "rehabilitation ot public
Chairman Doko also opposes 3. Accordingly, Japan's finance without a tax increase."
the view that business should be financial and economic pollcy Notwithstanding, when the
given priority over ad- must begin by cocrecting the basic recommendations of the
~n~nistrative reform. irregulaMties at the starting Ad Hoc Council are presented
Atter the shortage in tax point. At such a time, it is a and work starts on the for-
revenue became definite, political mistake to promtsc a mulation of the fiscal year 1983
Finance Minister Michio taxreduction. budget, the shortages of not
~ Watanabe called on tormer Director General Yasuhiro only fiscal years 1981 attd 198Z
Prime Minister Takeo Fukuda. Nakasone ot the Administrative but also for FY'83 will become
Fukuda served long in the ManagementAgencyiswaiting clear. There is strong
Finance Ministry. He is an for the basic recommendations probabllIty ot an emergency
economic and financial expert of the Ad Hoc CouncU. He seems Diet session being summoned
with experience as [inance for approval of a supplemen-
minister and prime minister. It to be desirous of carrying out tary budget. ~
is believed that Fukuda's way Po~~cies positively as soon as the Yrime Minister Suzuki will
of thinking is as toltows: basic recommendatIons are most likely tace' the need for a
1. There is a lack ot un- received. It is most likely that broad revision ot the politlcal
derstanding of the world the Second Ad Hoc Councll for and governmental policies
economy. Japan today has le[t Administrative Reform wi11 carrIed out up to now. Hece
adhere to the princtple of
the period of high and medium agaIn there is a stroag
rehabilitation of pubiic
growth, and is in a period of low . possibility of this becoming
finances withou. tax in-
growth. This is only natural in creases." This seems to be from l~~ Wi~th a"great political
view of the current world the consideration thatthe work confusion that wiU shake the
economy. Suzuki administration.
l. There is a need to restudy cannot be done unless both the
"entrance" and the ~'exit" are (The writer is an adviser to
- btocked. the Mainichl Newspapers and
At meetings of the Komoto tormerchieteditorial writer).
COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Daily News 1982
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'MAINICHI' URGES OPENING JAPAN'S FARM MARKET .
OW220941 Tokyo MAIIJICHI DAILY NEWS in English 21 Apr 82 p 2
[Editorial: "Farm Produce Imports"]
[Text] Japan and the United States have suspended talks in Washington, D.C.
on Japanese imports of American farm products due to a difference of views
on Japan's import liberalization of 22 agricultural products. Japan insists
that the two co~tries should seek a solution on a step-by-step basis but the
United~States adheres to the view that Japan should completely liberalize the
import of 22 items and if not, the two coimtries should try to settle the
matter through consultation as stipulated in article 22 of the Geaeral
~ Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).
As a result, the two co~mtries will continue talks tmder the new formula.
It seems there is little substantial difference because the two countries
will continue negotiations. The second paragraph of article 22 reads:
"The contracting parties may, at the request of a contracting party, consult
with any contracting party or p~rties in respect of any matter for which it
~ has not been possible to find a satisfactory solution through consultation..."
Japan can no longer satisfy the United States merely through reducing the
number of import restrictions on farm products. The failure of the Washington
meeting indicates that Japan must take another good look at its liberaliza-
tion policy.
Japanese consumers who have been suffering from a gradua~ decline in real
income complain about the high prices of imported agricultural goods. We
do not think that liberaZization would be a panacea for the disputes, never-
theless the government must deal with the matter after reexamining its
tmyielding protectionist policy. We hope that the goverament will demonstrate
determination to open the domestic market to foreign farm and other products
when it announces its open market measures in early May.
The Washington talks collapsed because of failure to narrow their difference '
of views. Japan said that it has been the most stable market in t~a world
for foreign farm products and propoaed that the import of beef and oranges
from the U.S. should be further studied through bilateral meetings. Japan
also reiterated that it is the biggest customer of American agricultural
products and that an expans,3on of imports would thus help U.S. farmers.
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To this, the U.S. complained that farm products spmbolize the closed nature
of the Japanese market and that Japanese "protectionism" should be considered
a"matter affecting the operation of this (GATT) agreement."
The U.S. turned a deaf ear to Japanese claims and proposed to continue the
talks on a qualitatively different level by applying the "consultation"
formula under the GATT, revealing U.S. irritation and discontent with
Japanese policy.
We would like to point out, however, that the U.S. itself is not necessarily
a faithful follower of the GATT. Only refined sugar is on the Americaa
residual import restrictioa list but the U.S. still en~oys the "waiver of
obligations" in the liberalizat~on of 13 goods including milk, cream and
butter, thus offending the Netherlands.
The European Community also maintains some measures to protect regional
agricultural production, and it can be said that every nation protects its
agricultural sector in one form or other. But claims and counterclaims
are not a reasonable way to find a solution.
We believe that both Japan and the Unit~d States must try to reach an agree-
ment by putting aside their own theories. The U.S. wants to see Japanese
liberalization of two particular items out of 22--beef and oranges. We
- understand that a complete liberalization of beef and oranges would not
benefit the U.S. because they are less competitive than Australian beef and
Brazilian oranges in the international market.
~
Japan must remember that it has enjoyed the merit of liberalizing manufacturcd
products imder the GATT. We hope that officials concprned will formulate
annual liberalization programs by giving up the idea that manufacturing '
industries should progress at the sacrifice of agriculture.
COPYRIGHT: Mainichi Daily News, 1982 ~
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~ U.S. PLANS TO TAKE FARM PRODUCE ISSUE TO GATT
~ ~
' OW181126 Tokyo ASAHI EVENING NEWS in English 16 Apr 82 p 5
; [ASAHI SSII~UN 15 April editorial: "Farm Products aad GATT"]
~
[Text] The issue of Japan's residual restrictions on imports of 22
i agricultural products, which has been discussed at a working-level
conference in Washington, will now be brought bq the Americans for review to
the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT~. So these residual import
restrictions will be brought before an interaational fortan for debate, and
this will probably bring about a new phase of agricultural product deregula-
~ tion for Japan.
During the recent U.S.-Japan talks in Washington, the Japanese side explained
that further trade liberalization for agricultural products would be diffi-
cult and pointed out that the Ua.ited States also maintains import restrictions
of its own on various items. Understanding was sought on these points, but
the United States refused to change its position that Japan's residual import
' restrictions violate artfcle 11 of GATT which places a general prohibition
. on quantitative import restrictions.
After hearing Japan's response, the United States will make a formal proposal
to hold discussions on the basis of article 22 of GATT. In turning down
Japan's proposal that the residual import restrictions should be allowed to
stand while both sides seek a compromise, the Uaited States has ensured that
future debate will be focused on the relationship between GATT and the
residual import restrictions. According to article 22 of GATT, other
countries that have an interest in the matter may partir.ipate in the discus-
' sions to hlep the two sides reach an agreement. Japan will be in a much
~ weaker position than in purely bilateral tallcs with the Un3ted States.
Even if a compromise is reached between Japan and the United States, it is
~ unlikely to last very long if the agreement is ad hoc and not accepted
internationally. If U.S.-Japan trade friction grows again, the United
i States will almost certainly demand a review of any compromise that is reached
between the two countries.
It is very significant that Japan should review its residual import restric-
; tions in accordance with the international rules of GATT at a time when the
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dispute about these restrictions has reached such a stage that it is being
taken to GATT. Though opposition is expected from farmers, it seems that
there is no escape for Japan. It is only natural, therefore, that the
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries should have decided to
approach the GATT consultation in a positive manner.
GATT contains special provisions that authorize import restrictions when ~
domestic production ad3ustments are being made in specific industries in a
country. There is now a surplus in the production of most of Japan's principal :
agricultural products. In view of this situation and the fact that Japan has
a low self-sufficiency rate for food--72 percent with respect to the total
and 33 percent with respect to grain, it can be very strongly argued that
Japan's n,arket is by no means unreasonably closed to agricultural imports.
Japan, whose agriculture is relatively backward, cannot accept the fact that
advanced agricultural countries in Western Europe and the United States have
been given formal approval for import restrictions that are no different from
Japan's. In addition, many people doubt whether trade in agricultural
products, which are influenced by geographic and climatic factors, should be
treated like industrial products.
If Japan's case is brought to GATT, Japan may have to make some concessions
with regard to the liberalization of the market or the expansion of import
quotas. It should adopt policies that conform to internatio~tal rules, while
taking appropriate steps to see that the basis of its agriculture is not
destroyed.
Some people argue that, to prevent the United States from involving GATT '
in these questions, Japan should announce a dramatic plan for agricultural
liberalization as the second plank of the policy for handling trade friction
that is to be launched before the June summit of tlie leaders of the advanced
nations. But real solutfons cannot be fotmd by means of generalized
discussion on the political level, and if Japan yields to the United States,
- it may invite reactions from other agricultural countries.
Even if progress is made toward agricultural liberalization, it may not
lead to a basic solution of the trade discord. Without measures to encourage
the orderly export of manufactured goods and the stimulation of domestic
demand, which should be taken i.n conjimction with measures to reduce working
- hours and inprove living standards, there will be no end to the friction.
A way of dealing with agricultural products should be considered within the
context of a comprehensive trade policy.
COPYRIGHT: Asahi Evening News 1982
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ECONOMIC
SALE OF ALASKAN CRUDE OIL TO JAPAN WOULD HELP U.S.
Tokyo SHUKAN ASAHI in Japanese 19 Mar 82 pp 27-29
[Article by staff reporter Yukimasa Okaawto: "'Japanese-U.S. Trade Friction
Is Pure Fiction!?': Both Sides Avoid Alaskan Crude Oil Tmportation Issue"]
(Text] Even if one is to ~udge it from a sympathetic standpoint, the United
States' argument in the current Japan-U.S. trade negotiations does seem un- ~
reasonable in many respects.
For example, let us take the issue of beef, which is thought to symbolize Japan's
protectionist policy. The price of beef is indeed very high. So the Ministry
of International Trade and Industry's [MITI] argianent that "with regard to
beef, the United States is far more restrictive" does have less credibility
than that advanced by the United States. But, if imports are deregulated,
.what would flow in would be Australian beef. And if, as a result of that,
Japanese dairy farmers go bankrupt, there will be a reduction in feed imports
, f rom the United States and the United States may very likely be the loser.
This is also true with respect to oranges.
"If orange imports are deregulated, Israeli varieties would come in; 3uice
would be Brazilian." (economic coffinentator Keitaro Hasegawa) The U.S. position
is indeed very insecure.
In spite of the U.S. Goverriment's haughty demand that "dramatic action is
needed" or that "it (the United States) would not hesitate to report Japan's
trade barriers as violations of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade,"
the prominent opinion in Japan is that, "regardless of how we rework the tariff
list, the change in trade revenue would be in the $700-~0 $S00-million
range." (Noboru Makino, Mitsubishi Comprehensive Research Institute president)
~ But perhaps the United States is well aware of these things.
Last year, the U.S. trade balance was $39.7 billion in the red. Of this
amount, more than 18 billion was owed to Japan. Thus it is understandable
that the United States is asking Japan to "do something."
What should then be the course of action for Japan? At this juncture, the
- Alaska crude oil issue surfaces. Both Makino and Hasegawa claim: "All would
be well if we could buy Alaskan crude oil from the United States."
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The reason is crystal clear. Japan's crude oil import [bill] for 1980 was
13.64 trillion yen. A phenomenal 43.4 percent of Japan's total imports is
taken up by pay+.:ants for petroleum. Import volume per day is approximately
4 million barrals. One barrel is about 159 liters, so [the daily import
vol~e] comes to 636,000 kilolite~s.
"If 10 percent of this amount could be imported from the United States at the
rate of $30 a.barrel, the 'purchase' would be $4.4 billion a year. There can
be no other 'dramatic solution' for improving U.S.-Japan trade relations."
(Hasegawa)
This idea gives us the hope of killing not merely two but three or four birds
with one stone. At present, nearly 70 percent of Japan's crude oil imports
come from Middle Eastern states--half of it from Saudi Arabia.
The need for diversifying the sources of petroleum supply in order to ensure a
~ stable economy has been discussed since the oil shock crisis. Having the
United States supply crude oil would contribute significantly toward staUiliz-
ing the Japanese economy.
Next is its e*fect on the OPEC nations' crude price of oil. As a result of
the unexpectedly speedy spread of energy conservation measures and the imple-
mentation of energy source conversions in the developed countries, there is
now a surplus of crude oil--some say that it is "as much as 2 million barrels
a day." Although the "$40-a-harrel era" was heralded at the OPEC meeting in
Bali toward the end of 1980, that price was short-lived, and the "spot" market
price recently has been as low as $20. Now, if "prime customer" Japan were to
shif t a significant volimme of its purchase order to another supplier, the
OPEC price would decline further.
Moreover, there is the additional merit of cheaper transportation costs. The
tanker route from Saudi Arabia's sh3pment poi,rit, Ra's at-Tannurah, to Yokohama
is 10,600 kilometers. From the Alaskan shipping point of Valdez, the dis-
tance requirement would be cut almost in half--a little less than 5,500
kilometers.
Exchange-of Exports Involving Mexican Crude Oil
If there are these advantages, why isn't it b~ing done? The truth of the
matter is that, ironically, U.S. "trade barriers" are impeding its realiza-
tion. Exports of U.S. crude oil are forbidden on principle under the "Export
Control Act" and the "Alaska Pipeline Act."
Alaskan crude oil was discovered in 1968 in the North Slope area facing the
Arctic Ocean. It is transported to the ice-free port of Valdea, located
east of Anchorage, via a pipeline 1,300 kilometers long.
Production volume at present is 1.6 million barrels per day. This is more
than the West Coast can use, and so nearlq 40 percent is shipped to the East
Coast via the Panama Canal. The Valdez-Los Angeles route is approximately
3,300 kilometers, but shipment to Boston on the East Coast means a travel
distance of 11,500 kilometers--farther than from Saudi Arabia to Yokohama.
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Then there is the consideration of the Panama Canal use fee; furthermore, in
order to ship crude oil through the Canal, it has to be transferred to a
60,000-ton-class tanker. For these reasons, export of Alaskan crude oil to
Japan has been under consideration since the start of production.
The portion sent to Japan can be made up by importing from closer Mexico; thus
maintaining the existing balance. At present, Japan is slated to receive
300,000 barrels per day of crude oil fram Mexico, but this crude oil travels
25,500 kilometers after it leaves (Paiaritos), the Mexican port of shipment
on the Gulf of Mexico side, passing Cape Town and going through the Indian
- Ocean. Starting in April, the shipment will depart from the Pacific Ocean
port of Salina Cruz, but even then the route to Yokohama requires over 10,000
kilometers. It would be most cost effective if Mexican crude oil were trans-
ported to the U.S. East Coast and an equivalent volimme of Alaskan crude oil
were shifted to Japan.
Three years ago, President Carter seriously considered this alternative, be-
cause "it would mean savings in transportation costs and because it would im-
prove the U.S. balance of trade and moreover strengthen U.S. ties with Mexico."
A Japanese-U.S. conference of eminent personages [ken~in], in a report pub-
lished in January last year, stated that "exporting Alaskan crude oil to Japan
or swapping exports with Mexican crude oil" would be an important symbolic
demonstration of Japanese-U.S. cooperation, would stabilize Japan's petrolewn
supply, and would remedy the U.S.-Japan trade imbalance as well as effect
savings in transportation costs.
Moreover, the head of the largest U.S. independent petroleum firm--Atlantic
Richf ield Corporation's Board Chairman Anderson--also wants Alaskan crude oil
to be exported to Japan. The "Japan Energy-Related Special Council" (the U.S.
counterpart is the "Pacif ic Conference Energy Policy Council"), made up of in-
dustrialists and academicians from Japan and the United States, entmmerated in
_ its joint report, compiled in June of last year, the merits of making Alaskan
crude oil available to Japan.
Against this backdrop, it is reported that last auttmnn the Reagan administra-
tion did consider the lifting of the ban on Alaskan oil exports to Japan, and
that the White House Policy Council had "OK'd" it.
But as a result of tension in the Middle East caused by the assassination of
Egyptian President Sadat, there was a 180-degree aboutface in policy. In
November, the U.S. Government's Presidential Council on Natural Resources and
Environment, in a seven-to-three decision, re~ected the lifting of the ban on
Alaskan crude oil exports.
Now that tY~e tension in the Middle East has eased once again, it would not be
inappropriate to resume import talks, but the topic has been all but forgotten.
Why? Mr Hasegawa states: The Japanese-U.S. trade friction is pure fiction.
It is as if the two governments were wrestling with a ghost."
On the U.S. side, the politicians are looking for popularity points for the
upcoming midterm election in the f all. Their stance is consistent. The basis
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for the dissatisfaction with Japan is the poor state of the U.S. economy, ,
symbolized by an unemployment figure of over 10 million. This is directly .
tied to their political responsibility. But their scheme is to let Japan ;
shoulder the blame--to channel the electorate's dissatisfaction toward Japan.
~
As mentioned previously, lifting the ban on exports of Alaskan crude oil to
Japan would have a"dramatic" impact on the trade revenue figures; its eff ects
on the voters, however, would be entirely negative--al decline in U.S. oil
refinery operations, decreased business for the tanker industry, and so on.
Therefore, old stories such as "crude oil exports would endanger U.S. security,"
or "disuse of the Canal would wreck the bonds of f riendship between the United ~
States and Panama," are still being paraded. .
Mr Makino says: It would be significant [for Japan] to press for repeal of the
the ban on Alaskan crude oil exports. It would indeed be counter-PR. If it
caere to get results, all the better."
But up to now, Japan has not wanted to play this "trump card" up front. ,
Today, when there is more than enough oil in the world, the lure of Alaskan ~
crude oil is not very attractive to the petroleum industry. Alaskan oil has
a sulfur content of 1.04 percent. It is extra-heavy oil. Whereas 24-25 per-
cent can be extracted from Saudi Arabian oil ~or gasoline, a little more than
10 percent is all that can be squeezed out of Alaskan crude oil. The MITI
claims that in the current U.S.-3apan trade negotiations, the Agency of
Natural Resources and Energy, acting on cue from the domestic petroleum indus-
try, is privately opposing the "Alaskan crude oil importation proposal."
Thus, while the trtnnp card--the Alaskan crude oil issue--is being ignored, the
friction between the United States and Japan seems on the surface to be gain-
ing in intensity. Regardless of national differences, elections and politi-
cians appear to be very much alike everywhere.
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' Japan's Petroleum Imports (1981)
~ , . Q7~~/~73~~'~ ( H8~CI56~ ) ~ ~
~~~-7~~e~> ~
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�ti$:�
;
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' ! �1.~�.~.,L Y ti:ti:~. Y~�. � N~� fW::.�~.~.
: :.lf.~::'}'J.f'~f}{iL\}'i: ff.
, . t4~ ':l.:ti}:�: ���%::�1:::�. � :.'f~r..:}':�f:.f:i;r~.f:�f~}:},y;.i.
~b ~ . .::::.r, .
; .+Y%,i: {.~,L~r'~ f~:t?'t:;.; ~ ~ X.�'}:�}:��:�v~.�:}~.
, ..v,Y:, � ~ ~o,~a~ ~ ~ ~ jt~lE �:;:>:.::....s...
, :�.,:i::::}~;:~:>.
: � Piy c4.s~~~ a,~2o ��:::r...
1~59 � ~r ~:�.:::�:::.f
~ � , :
1, ( 0) 46.1~6 Z t1.8) ��^r'
..~7 J 7~ � ~2av ~~o
~
s~ ) ~ (~o
5.4.98 ~~~r ��V r ~
- ' (2.4) ,0 .
. ~~w ' � ��~L~
.~./}:.~~'~~}i: " _ _ ~
.:5:~:,:''�' ' ~
0)
; � f;::::;:. ~ r : ~ � ~
i:'~:�::i~' r. r
. �'i,:.+.�:
r r �ri~.::.} .
~
. ~ n~r:.
r~i~~~FA~.Ra 8~~057~ 1A ~/1`5
. (12)~1'3tat000K$( )P9rdlfR~t`fi'1fl:fr�7'~tt~~7~~$3t ~
Key :
(1) Africa (8) Pipeline
(2) Middle East (9) Alaskan crude oil (North Slope
(3) Southeast Asia Oilfield)
' (4) China (10) North America
(5) Soviet Union (11) South America
(6) Total import volume (12) from Petroleum Resource Monthly,
(7) Valdez Jan 82
unit = 1000 kk
~ ( ) enclosure represents percent
. in relation to total import volume,
including sokuho-ne [rapid dispatch
value]
COPYRIGHT: Asahi Shimbunsha 1982
11460
CSO: 8029/0999
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i
i
~
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ~
~
i
!
� i
i
. !
HITACHI SELLS SEMICONDUCTOR TECHIdOLOGY TO HEWLETT-PACKARD :
i
Contract on 64K DRAM '
Tokyo NIHON KOGYO SHIMBUN in Japanese 3 Mar 82 p 2
[Text] Hitachi, Ltd (president, Mita Katsushige) on the 2d announced the
conclusion of a concrete agreement with the American specialist electronics
- manufacturer HP (Hewlett-Packard) to contract for the sale of technology
concerning its advanced memory product, the fi4K DRAM. i
As far as Japanese manufacturers providing American companies with IC ,
technology is concerned, up to now, outside of the discussions in progress ;
between Mitsubishi Electric Corporation and Westinghouse, there have been a
few examples involving small to medium-sized in-house manufacturers, but ;
this is the first instance of a firsn agreement involving advanced products
- or a large specialist electronics manufacturer like HP. ;
American interest in semiconductor trade with Japan is focused upon the 64K ;
DRAM, and in this field the choice by HP of Hitachi as a partner is to be ;
taken as showing the evaluation by American companies of all Japanese- '
manufactured 64K DRAM, not only those of Hitachi. Alongside its positive ~
aspects for Japanese-American technological exchange, this will intensify ~
~ the unhappiness of American semiconductor manufacturers. ~
The substance of the agreement for the sale of technology is that: 1) it is ,
concerned with 64K DRAM, 2) it will include 64K DRAM mask and 3 micron ~
N-MOS process technology, and 3) its use will be limited to HP's own products.
HP is a prominent American electronics manufacturer and produces
minicomputers, instruments, medical electronic devices, and the like. It
has 57,000 employees and its sales in 1~981 amounted to 31 billian dollars.
Recently the company has expanded its semiconductor manufacturing plant and
is prepared for the manufacture of the 64K DRAM.
MITI Values Cooperation Highly--Statement of Minister of International Trade
and Industry Abe
"There has long been a vigorous interchange of capital and technology
between Japan and the United States in the area of semiconductors. This
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~
~ instance of technological cooperation is a concrete example detronstrating
~ the recognition in this country of the importance of further extending smooth
~ cooperation between Japan and the United States in the field of the 64R
DRAM, the most advanced semiconductor technology. MITI also values this
' highly. It is very much hoped that hereafter we will be able to positively
' encourage technical cooperation not only in the semiconductor field but in
' all areas of advanced technology, and be able to count upon coexistence
, and coprosperity between Japan and the United States in the field of advanced
technology."
COPYRIGHT: Nihon Kogyo Shimbunsha Tokyo Honsha 1982
~ Second AP Shock
; Tokyo NIKKAN KOGYO SHIMBUN in 3apanese 3 Mar 82 p 12
[Text] Hitachi, Ltd (president, Mita Katsushige) announced on the 2d
~ the conclusion of a firm agre~ment for the sale of production technology
~ for the 64K DRAM (dynamic read-and-write memory) to the American
~ specialist electronics manufacturer Hewlett-Packard (HP). The main points
' in the agreement are: 1) it concerns the 64K DRAM, 2) the offered technology
is that of its mask and the 3 micron N-channel MOS process, and 3) its use
~ will be limited to HP's own products. The contract is presently being worked
' out, but it is expected to be concluded soon. Once the contract is
concluded, HI' will manufacture 64 K memories in its recently expanded factory
in the California city of Cupertino and will use them as components. For
the American homeland of semiconductor technology, this will be the first
import from Japanese manufacturers of this sort of basic production
technology, including masks.
' The sale to HP by Hitachi of technology for the 64K DRAM, the most advanced
area of this technology, can be taken as important in showing that there is
no hindrance to the establishment of friendly relations between companies
of the two countries as a resul~t of the growing trade friction between
Japar~ and the United States recently in this field. The concrete reason for
- this is that HP, as a powerful electronics manufacturer, is known for
' strictness in quality control and reliability and sees that the acquisition
: of this technology will enhance the worldwide reputation of its own
technology.
Value of Japanese-American Cooperation in Advanced Technology- Minister Abe
Minister of International Trade and Industry Abe, at a press conference after
a cabinet meeting on the 2d, said concerning the fact that Hitachi Ltd has
reached agreement with Hewlett-Packard for the sale of production technology
for the 64K DRAM: "We highly value Japanese-American cooperation in advanced
technology." He added the following.
There has long been a vigorous interchange of capital and technology between
Japan and the United States in the are.a of semiconductors. This instance of
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technological cooperation is a concrete example demonstrating that our
country recognizes the importance of counting on the development of Japanese-
American cooperation, coexistence and coprosperity in the field of the 64K
DRAM, its most advanced area of technologq. It is valued most highly.
It is now appropriate for our country to advocate setting up a joint U.S.-
Japanese study group for advanced technology, and it is very much hoped
that hereafter we will b~ able to encourage such technological cooperation
not only i~ the field of semiconductors but in all areas of advanced
technology, and that we will be able to count upon coexistence and ,
coprosperity in the area of advanced technology.
Editorial: A Beneficial Blow for American Industry--HP Shows the Spirit '
of Economic Principles
Hewlett-Packard's decision to import technology related to the 64K memory
from Hitachi may be considered, at this juncture when the Japan-U.S.
semiconductor war is intensifying, as a strong counterpunch by the American
semj.conductor industry, launched by Hewlett-Packard (though with the effect
of an infuriating if beneficial blow).
To the American semiconductor industry, the fact that one of its own
nation's companies, which it relies upon as a major customer, should, out of
necessity, rely upon an enemy company to move into this technology will, at
the same time as it inflicts a blow from an ally that means that there will
be no early victory in the 64K war, deliver a ma3or shock which will have a
large influence on the future conduct of the 64K war.
HP (headquartered in Palo Alto, California; company president, John A. Young)
i is a specialist manufacturer of minicomputers, medical electronic devices,
and analytical instruments, with capital of 393 million dollars, sales of
3.1 billion dollars, and 57,000 employees (all as of October 1980). In Japan
it owns a subsidiary company,~ointly with Jokogawa Electric Works Ltd
(Yokogawa-Hewlett-Packard).
In semiconductors, HP manufacturers for its own use optoelectronics, IC,
and IC for microchips. but it does not sell them outside (it does sell some
- special semiconductors). Its technology reaches artistic levels, as shown
by its ~iisplay of a 32 bit micron at last year's and this year's International
Solid ~tate Circuit Conference. As for memories, it manufacturers internally
up to 16K DRAM, but the greater part are bought from outside, and it has
begun to import 64K from Japanese firms.
The previous greatest shock in the Japanese-American semiconductor war was
in March 1980, at a seminar held in Washington by the Electronic Industries
Association of Japan, when Hewlett-Packard's Data Systems General Manager
Anderson compared Japanese and American 16K memories and showed figures that
the defect rate of Japanese products was one-sixth that of American products,
and proved that Japanese quality control was superior. With this, attacks
from the American side suddenly stopped and American companies all at once
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became very concerned about quality control. At present they are claiming
that this has had a big effect and that the quality of the current products
is comparable to that o� Japanese products. This new m4ve may be considered
the second successive "HP shock."
Criticism of Japan's excessivQ exports is considerable, as shown by the
demand for "strong measures" made by the U.S. Government to the Esaki mission.
However, HP shows the spirit of the economic principle that, however you
may wish to protect the national industry, it is not permissible for an
American company which is a major user of 64K memories to tie itself to
Silicon Valley companies which, though probably once the most advanced, are
now becoming a backward production area, to put together systems incorpor-
ating obsolete IC from them, and thereby lose competitive power even at
home, let alone overseas.
That being said, it is also dangerous to be able t~ survive only through
imports from Japanese companies. It is evident that the company has
concluded that the best policy is to import technology from a top manufacturer
of 64K and then manufacture them itself. In fact, IBM, Western Electric and
other giant American companies already mass-produce 2-3 million or more 64K
- per month for their own use, and, although there are reports of the imminent
manufacture of 256K, for America's large systems.manufacturers the current
64K devices are urgent. In these circumstances its neighbors in Silicon
Valley have announced 64K products, but after more than 2 years they have
not yet been able to achieve mass production. It might be said that the
feeling has developed that it cannot risk relying on these companies and
going down with them.
Up to now the relationship has not involved capital or technology or anything
beyond the simple purchase of inemories. This present proposed
cooperation is at the initiative of HP and is due to its high evaluation of
Hitachi's semiconductor technolog-,~ based on its previous acquisitions of
16K and 64K. The negotiations on cooperation began in the su~er of last
year. For HP, its own production of 64K will provide only a part of its
consumption and will not mean the cessstion of imports of 64K from Hitachi
and other Japanese firms.
In this cooperation it is said that the sending of technicians from Hitachi
and the offer of production machine knowhow go hand in hand. Up to now
there has been a one-way flow of semiconductor technology from the
United States to Japan, and it is clear that this offer of Hitachi technology
is a remarkable event which shows a change in the direction of the flow of
the export of silicon technology from Japan to the United States, at least
in the most advanced fields of gallium arsenate and Josephson elements.
COPYRIGHT: Nikkan Kogyo Shimbunsha 1982
9898
CSO: 4106/79
1+1
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SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
CURRENT R&D OF FINE CERAMICS, AMORPHOUS SILICON DISCUSSED �
Tokyo BUNGEI SHUNJU in Japaneae Mar 82 pp 134-150
[Article by Yasunobu Misato, economic critic: "Ztao Leading Roles--Ceramics
and Amarphous Silicotr-Which Drive the Materials Revolution; an Attempt Is
Being 1~Iade To Turn Man's Dream Into Reality"]
[Excerpts] Ceramic Engine Successfully Trial Manufactured
Kokubu city, approximately 25 minutes by car from Ragoshima airport, is the
site of the consolidated research center and the Kokubu plant of Rqoto Cer-
amics Co.
Its ground, 223,000 square meters in area, is divided into four sections.
In three of the four sectionos are 15 plant buildings, while the fourth sec-
tion contains the consolidated research center. Although Ryoto Ceramics has ~
four plant sites all over the country (Fusho and Yok~ichi in Shiga Prefecture
and Kawauchi and Kokubu in Ragoshima Prefecture), Kokubu is the onlq site a
plant and an R~D department are integrated in a single location.
"We don't find any inconvenience at all. The information n~ecessary for the
research center comes mainly fram the sales personnel stationed in the United
States. Kyoto Ceramics International is headquartered~in San Diego. Infor- ~
mation concerning what the users want and what technology the users are in-
terested in is forwarded to us.
"News and information from the United States is voZuminous because of its
huge technical background.
"Information concerning literature and patents is sent from Kyoto and Tokyo
- over telephone lines to our computer terminals. Probably, only the telephone
billbill is higher here than it would be in a central location." (Yoshimitsu
Hamano, doctor of engineering, executive director, Consolidated Research
Center).
The world's first ceramic diesel engine was successfully trial manufactured
here on 23 December last year, and a historic step in the R&D of ceramic
products was taken. How well the ceramic diesel engine car of Kyoto Ceramics
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ran was televised on 4 January this year as part of the Golden Hour program
of NIIiK, entitled "Top Technology that Changes Japan." So, many of you must
have seen it.
The ceramic engine may be described briefly as an engine which does not need
water cooling, because unlike the conventional cast iron engine, the ceramic
engine has much greater strength at a higher temperature. In today's
gasoline engine (reciprocating engine), no more than 22-23 percent of,the
thermal energy re leased by combustion is used as driving energy. The rest of
the thermal energy is lost: approximately 25 percent through the cooling
water, approximately 34 percent through the exhaust gas (and the other 20
percent or so through energy loss due to friction and in various parts of the
driving mechanism such as the gear).
The thermal efficiency of a large-scale diesel engine is of the order of 33
percent, which is much higher than that of the reciprocating engine, but ap-
proximately 67 percent of the thermal energy is still lost through the cooling
water and the exhaust gas, distributed approximately equally between them.
Therefore, "loss of energy through a water cooling system can be eliminated if
the combustion chamber is surrounded by ceramic parts, which are good in-
sulators." (Director Hamano) In addition, if a turbocharger, which is :Ln
fashion today, is used to utilize the thermal energy in the exhaust gas,
then the thermal efficiency of an adiabatic diesel engine can be raised to
48 percent, according to experimental data (U.S. Cummins engine). That is to
say, "Using a ceramic diesel engine, the thermal efficiency can be raised ap-
proximately 30 percent over that of the conventional diesel engine fn exis-
tence today." (Director Hamano)
The current ceramic diesel engine developed by Kyoto Ceramics has a combustion
chamber completely made of ceramics, including the piston, cylinder, and
cylinder head plate. Director Hamano himself has evaluated it and declared;
"Every part that can be benefited by the use of ceramics has been made of
ceramics. So it may be called an all ceramic engine." The prototype coa-
sists of a 2.8 liter, air-cooled, three-cylinder engine which is mnunted on
a Gemini (1.8 liter) for the road test.
Guided by Director Hamano, I visited the engine room. I saw in the room an
engine without either a radiator for water cooling or a fan for air cooling.
- The external surface of the cylinder, dark glossy gray in color, was flat and
its waistless body was bare, without the fins often found on an air-cooled
cylinder.
With a staff inember at the steering wheel, I took a ride in this car, which
was only 20 days old (10 January), and was surprised to find that it was not
noisy. The sound level may be ~ust a little bit higher than in an ordinary
diesel car. "Idling has not been ad~usted yet," (Director Hamano) so some
irregularity in engine revolution could be felt intermittently. But its ac-
celeration perf ormance appeared quite sufficient. Although the engine vi-
bration was surprisingly heavy, it was probably unavoidable because a 2.8
liter engine was mounted on a Gemini designed for a 1.8 liter engine. The
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exhaust gas was bluish in color. To be sure, there ware many fine points
that required ad~ustment because it was only a trial product, but the way it
ran appeared quite satisfactory.
Director Hamano told me that the themes related to the practical application
of a ceramic engine are as follows.
"Whatever ane may say, the first is its cost. A large sum of money has al-
ready gone into this engine. The second is the confirmation of the reliabil-
ity of its parts. Any defect in a ceramic part means instant destruction~, so
whether or not ceramic p arts can be mass produced depends entirely on whether
or not a nondestructive inspection method can be developed, so that thousands
of manufactured parts can b e inspected each day. Although X-ray fluoroscope
and ultrasonic methods are being investigated, the success hinges on how to
discover defective parts among complex shaped ob3ects such as engine parts
during the process of manufacturing. It may take many m~re years before these
two problems can be solved."
Nondestructive inspection of defects is such an important part o� the mass
production process because, for the sake of safety, the auto makers impose�
very strict requirements on the re~ect rate of sutomobile parts. The re3ect
rate of automobile parts is in general less than one-one hundredth, and the
requirement on the engine, the heart, is even more strict. However, today's
ceramic manufacturing technology has not yet realized an inapection tech-
nology which can guarantee this standard. The p arts used in this trial engine
were tested on-site by actually using them in the engine. The reliability of ~
these parts were inspected by such a complicated and time-consuming non-
destructive inspection method.
Race Between United States and Japan in Matters Related to Development of
App lication
Fine ceramics found immediate application in such fie:cdf~ as high-speed cutting
- tools and mechanical seals, but this was only the beginciing.~ The true indus-
trial application of fine ceramics depends on future R&D activities. Some
possible applications that come to mind include material for construction of
the vacuum chamber wall of a nuclear fision furnace, control rod of an atomic
furnace, gas turbine for p awer generation, high-temperature heat exchanger,
deep-well drilling equipment, and other items of the energy and machinery
industries. In the meantime, the focus is on the automobile engine.
In the field of application to the automobile engine, the United States and
Japan have already started a race for development. In the United States, an
engine development law was enacted by the govemment in 1978~ and the develop-
ment of new high efficiency engines by the U.S. auto makers is backed by the
government. The emphasis in the United States is centered around the develop-
ment of a gas turbine typ e automobile engine. An example of a gas turbine
type engine is the ~et engine used on sircraft today. With this type of en-
gine, the higher the combustion temperature, the higher the efficiency will
be. Therefore, development of a new engine in which the combustion temper-
ature is raised to 1,370� C through the use of ceramic parts is the goal.
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Ford and GM have already managed to make a number of gas turbine parts with
ceramics, and the United States would like to be able to mass-produce ceramic
gas turbines for automobiles starting in the early 1990~s.
In this field, the Japanese auto makers such as Toyota and Nissan have also
- been actively engaged in research and development. They say that there is no
difference whatever between the technological development levels of the two
countries. While nearly 10 years of additional development is considered to
be required for the development of a ceramic gas turbi~e, the manufacture of a
ceramic diesel engine is expected to be realizable by the latter half of the
1980's. In addition to the Japanese auto makers, Toshib a, NGK Spark Plug Co,
and Kyoto Ceramics are also actively engaged in its development.
Of all these firms, Kyoto Ceramics started early, and in 1978 MITI desig-
nated its applications research on a ceramic diesel engine as one of the
important national technological R&D themes. Over a period of three years
ending in 1980, approximately 100 million yen in development subsidy was
given to Kyoto Ceramics.
"Research activities related to the application of ceramics for engine parts
has been brisk since the 1970~s centered around the United States. So we,
too, engaged in making ceramic pistons and cylinders. However, things did not
go well. They all broke so easily....
"We decided to make our own engine five years ago. In April 1977 we hired
mechanical engineers to 3oin our group. At the same time, we began to tackle
the problems related to making an engine in earnest through cooperation with
Isuzu Motors Ltd, which has actual experience in building diesel engines.
Since 1978, when it was decided that we were to receive MITI subsidy, we have
- been in the pos ition that we had to do it.
"A single cylinder engine was tackled first, and by March of last year we
managed to trial manufacture a small diesel engine with four cylinders. In
this engine, only the piston crown, the cylinder liner, the cylinder head'
pZate, and the preheat chamber were made of ceramics.
"Accumulating design after design, last November we began to make an all-
ceramic engine.
"We chose to tackle the diesel engine because its fuel consumption is smaller
than that of a gasoline engine; even the small engines used in family cars
are turning to diesel. However, the main application of ceramics probably
will be in the field of large diesel engines used in trucks and buses."
(Director Hamano)
To understand how different this all-ceramic engine, which was successfully
developed by Kyoto Ceramics, is compared with the conventional engine, the
temperature inside an engine must be explained to some extent.
An ordinary automobile piston is made of aluminum, and it melts at a tempe r-
ature of approximately 680� C. On the other hand, the temperature of the
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combustion of gas is in the range of 800-900� C(a temperature regulated by the
amount of fuel and oxygen admitted; the combustion temperature of a diesel en-
gine is approximately 50� C higher than that of a gasoline eagine). Therefore,
_ in today~s engines, the piston temperature is kept at about 350� C by means of
circulating cooling water through the cylinder liner. In this case, the ,
cylinder wall temperature is in the range of 150-200� C.
But in the ceramic engine made by Kyoto Ceramics which does mt require either
air cooling or water cooling, "the combustion gas temperature reaches about
1,500� C, while the cylinder wall temperature can reach 800� C." (Director
Hamano)
Moreover, the ceramic used in the diesel engine of Kyoto Ceramics is a com-
pound called silicon nitride. Although silican nitride is slightly inferior
to silicon carbide in its high-temperature strength, its heat insulating
property is superior, so it is more suitable to a system which will not be
cooled by either air or water. Silicon carbide has very good high-tempe~
ature strength but no heat insulating property, so it is suitable for cox~
struction of the combuster used in a gas turbine engine. (The high-temper-
ature strength of silicon nitride is 1,500� C while that of silicon carbide
is 1,600� C.)
Surprisingly Simple Manufacturing Process
We will touch upon the manufacturing process of ceramic products a little
here. The Kokubu plant contains factories for manufacturing ceramic products
in three different fields. There are three factories for the manufacture of
semiconductor-realted parts, electronic parts, and industrial ceramics.
There are four processes that every product must undergo: preparation of raw
' material, molding, baking, and finishing. The case of laminated products,
a process consisting of circuit printing and laminating is added in between
molding and baking. In the case of inetallized products, there is a process
called high-temperature metallizing following the baking process. The i~r
dispensable processes are the four processes mentioned above. Moreover, the
finishing referred to above means metal grazing and plating in the case of
laminated products and metallized products, and grinding and polishing in the
case of machined products.
I was allowed to have a tour of a plant (industrial ceramics plant) which is
closed to outsiders. My impression of that plant, briefly, was the image of
a modern foundry. The industrial ceramics plant consists of two rectangular
buildings, each measuring approximately 30 meters wide, 100 meters long and 15
meters high. These floorless buildings of iron frames had uncluttered ceil-
_ ings with the appearance of a large city factory.
The work in the plant begins with the molding stage. At the far end of the
building are the molding machines. On the floor~surrounding these machines
are arranged many vinyl bags( the size of a cement bag) containing powdery
material. These bags contain fine powdery raw material which is refined to a
very high purity.
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Several young men were transferring the powder fran a bag to a thick-walled
rubber cylinder, approximately 15 centimeters in diameter and 1 meter high.
They tapped the floor with the cylinder to pack the powder after adding a
' small amount, and repeated this process with care. Depending on the size
of the molded product, larger rubber cylinders are also used. I saw rubber
cylinders as much as 3 meters high standing in the word area.
The rubber cylinder packed tightly with pawder to the top is then molded by
being put in a huge machine called a rubber press. The cylinder is trans-
; ported by a movable crane suspended from the ceiling. First of all, the
rubber cylinder is placed inside a cylindrical container made of wire mesh
and is suspended from the crane. The metal container is approximately 1 meter
in inside diameter and 2.5 meters high.
This container is transported by the crane to be placed inside the rubber
press. As the rubber press is a machine which is buried deep underground, the
container is lawered to a depth of 5-6 meters. The hole into which the cor~
tainer is lowered is filled with water. Thereafter, the powder is pressed
under a pressure amounting to a thousand atmospheres (hydraulic pressure) by
pumping oil into the press. The powder is said to be premixed with a kind of
binder.
Scores of cylinders thus molded were arranged ia the work area. The surface,
- to the touch, felt like a hardened fine plaster and it was somewhat damp.
The color is different for different raw materials, so it is easy to dis-
tinguish one from another. White molding is alumina; green molding is also
alumina, but it will turn black after baking. Gray molding is silicon
nitride, while gray mixed with brown is silicon carbide.
These moldings are cylindrical in shape, and they are next machined to the
size of the product. Each cutting machine tool is manned by a worker. After
machining, the workpieces are to be placed inside an oven and baked. Alumina.
products are baked and hardened inside a dome-shaped gas ovea at a temperature
of approximately 1,700� C. There were ovens of all sizes used for the baking
of alumina, including large ovens of a diameter of about 5 meters.
In addition, there was an electric oven called a tunnel cv2n which was approx-
imately 30 meters long. The interior of this oven was app roximately 1 meter
wide and 70 centimeters high; it was glowing.bright red when I stooped down
and looked into it.
Silicon nitride is baked inside a special oven called a vacuum oven in a
nitrogen atmosphere which is free of oxygen. Silicon carbide is also baked
in an electric oven of its own.
Different ovens are used for different products, but what is most surprising
is the length of time the products must remain inside the oven. Although
this also varies according to the product, the length of time may vary from
as short as a day to as long as a week. This procedure is very time-consuming
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because the baking temperature must be raised gradually, and cooliag is done
naturally by leaving the baked pieces in the sir.
In addition to carrying out baking inside a baking oven, some products may
also be baked by what is knawn as a hot press method. This method coneists
of simultaneous baking as the fine powder is molded in the press. Therefore, ~
the machining process is eliminated from the work process described above,
and both molding and baking are carried out in a single process. Reported-
ly, the strength can be improved by this method of baking.
The workpieces baked and hardened in the oven are then sub3ected to grinding
and polishing carried out manually by the workers. Alumina ceramic parts
used on a paper making machine were being manufactured. The surface of the
finished p arts felt slipperq, like milky white marble to the touch.
In addition to the electromagnetic, thermal, and mechanical functions touched
upon so far, ceramics have also drawn attention because of their biochemical
functions. Interest in the development of ceramics for surgical materials
such as artificial teeth and artificial bones has also been growing in recent
years. Alumina and single crystal sapphire have already been found to be ap-
plicable as surgical materials because they are not re~ected by the living .
body. An artificial tooth with an artificial tooth root screwed onto the `
jaw bone i.s said to be almost indistinguishable in function from the natural
tooth, so it is expected to become a popular commodity in the future society
with a high concentration of seaior citizens.
Whether or aot fine ceramics can actually become the third�material after
metals and resins depends on the future development. However, there is no
doubt at a11 about the great potential for application of ceramics not only
in the space field, like the heat shield tiles used on the space shuttle, but
also in the fields of energy, electronics, and surgical materials.
What on Earth Is Amorphous Silicon?
The organization which leads the world today in R&D of amorphous silicon is
the Central Research Laboratory of Sanyo Electric located ia Maikata city,
Osaka Prefecture.
The Central Research Laboratory of Sanyo Electric, standing on a height sur-
rounded by a residential area, is the center of world attention today on mat-
ters related to solar photoelectric generation.
All this is the result of a patent application filed in the United States by
- Sanyo Electric. This basic patent, covering a wide range concerning an
"integrated amorphous silicon solar cell," was granted and published in the
United States in late November last year (the date the patent was approved
by the U.S. Patent Office was 28 June).
The details of the patent actually involve 75 technological items from coir
struction, manufacturing, to application. Almost all that can be thought of
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;
concerning all "integrated amorphous silicon solar cell" is said to be covered
i by this patent.
A basic patent is co~only secured for an invention, but the fact that a
~ Japanese enterprise was able to obtain a far-reaching basic patent in the field
; of such an advanced technological field was truely epoch-making.
' The person who was directly responsib le for this invention was Rotoku Ruwano,
, director of the Ruwano laboratory of the Central Research Laboratory. Mr
~ ~ Kuwanp is only 41 years old, born in February 1941. Since research on
amorphous silicon is said to have started in 1968, this inventio n is the
fruit of 12 years' research effort.
Wine-Colored "Magic Board"
Now then, what features distinguish this amorphous siiicon solar cell~ the
U.S. patent of which was won by Saayo Electric, from the conventional single
crystal silicon?
First of all, its manufacturing process is simpler. Amorphous silicon con-
sists of three layers (P layer, I layer, and N layer). It is formed basically
by the following procedure. Silane (SiH2) gas, which is a compound formed
from silicon and hydrogen, is introduced into a low vacuum reactor in which
a plasma reaction is induced by a high-frequency discharge. As a result, ~
silane gas is decomposed by the energy of diacharge, and amorphous silicon
, is deposited thinly on a baseboard.
Guided by director Kuwano, I had a tour of the Yodogawa branch office, which
is usually closed to outsiders, and inspected the pilot plant. The plant
(made of stainless steel) was in the shape of a rectangular box 1 meter wide,
40 centimeters high and 6 meters long. On the side of the box were five cir-
cular windows, approximately 10 centimeters ia diameter, spaced at equal in-
tervals. The plant was surprisingly small.
The presence of five windawa signifies that there are five continuous
processes taking place inside the box-shaped plant, and the progress of each
process can be observed through the window. A glasa baseboard (1.1 milli-
meter) with a transparent electrode (1,000 angstroms = 0.1 micron = one-ten
thousandth of 1 millimeter) consisting of a thin film of tin oxide formed on
it was laid on top of a plate approximately 50 centimeters square, and the
plate was placed inside the plant~to begin heating of the baseboard first of
~ all. The interior of the plant was aglow in orange color as seen through
the window. Heating continued until the baseboard temperature reached
300� C.
The plate carrying the heated baseboard was then advanced to the next station,
, where a P layer was to be formed. To form a P layer, diborane (B2H6) gas was
added to the silane gas. The interior of the plant was aglow in violet color
as seen through the second window, because a plasma discharge was taking
' place there. The P layer is only 200 angstroms in thickness (0.02 micron =
two-100 thousandths of 1 millimeter).
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After the P layer was formed, the I layer was to be formed next. Only silane
gas was used for the formation of the I layer. This section was also aglow
in violet color. The thickness of the I layer is 5,000 angstroms (0.5 ~
micro~ .
After the I layer was formed, the N layer was to be formed next. Phosphine
(PH3) gas was added to the silane gas in this section, and the interior was .
again aglcxa in violet color. The thickness of the N layer is only 300-400
angstroms.
The final process was natural cooling. After cooling, the plate was removed
from the plant. The entire process that went on inside the plant lasted ap-
proximately 30 minutes.
Incidentally, P layer is the abbreviation for positive layer, which consists
of positive holes (positive charges). I layer is the abbreviation for
intrinsic layer, which is also called neutral layer. N layer is the abbre-
viation for negative layer, which consists of electrons (negative chargea).
Therefore, the diborane which was added in order to form the P layer was the
so-called P type impurity, while phosphine which was added in order to form
the N layer was the N type impurity.
The light energy striking the board is first of all transformed into elec-.
tricity in the I layer, and positive charges (positive holes) and negative
charges (electrons) are generated. These charges are then attracted to
places where they can feel at home. So, P and N layers were formed at both ~
ends of the silicon ahead of time to attract these charges. This is how a
solar cell is made.
Incidentally, the rest of the process goes as follows, The amorphous silicon
formed on the glass baseboard was then transported to a work process where
aluminum electrode was to be vapor deposited onto the N layer. The aluminum
electrode is 1 micron thick (one-thousandth of 1 millimeter) and is used to
deliver the electricity.
Finally, the aluminum electrode was coated with a layer of resin as protec=
tion. The thickness of resin coating is of the order of 0.2 millimeters. At
this point, the main body of the atnorphous silicon solar cell, which is called
a transparent conductive b asebo ard, w.as completed. All that remained to be
done was to attach fine conductors at the two terminals of the aluminum
electrode to turn the assembly into a"magic board" from which electricity
could be obtained instantly by exposing the glass side to the sunlight.
The entire thickness of the board is only slightly more than 1.3 millimeters,
and the thickness of the amorphous silicon portion consisting of P, I and N
layers amounts to no more than about 6,000 angstrons (0.6 microns = six-ten
thousandths of 1 millimeter). In other words, if the entire thickness of 1.3
millimeter were magnified 100,000 times to 130 meters, the thickness of the
amorphous silicon portion would come to approximately 6 centimeters. The
amorphous silicon is a deep wine color. _
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Cost Reduced at Once to One-Hundredth
This manufacturing method is c a7.1ed continuous separate formation method.
This is also the world's first machine for mass-producing amorphous silicon
solar cells, as indicated by the fact that a patent on this process was
awarded to Sanyo Electric.
The manufacturing process described above is in fact simpler than the manu-
facturing process of single crystals. To produce single crystals, hydrogen
is mixed with trichlorosilane, which is the raw material, and the mixture is
heated in an electric oven called a polycrystal forming oven to a temper-
ature of 1,000� C. As a result, the raw material is decomposed and blocks
- of polycrystalline silicon are formed. These blocks are called polycrystal-
line chunks. These chunks are further heated in an electric furnace called
a single crystal forming oven to a high temperature of 1,500� C to m~21t them
slowly in order to form single crystals. P type impurity is added at this
stage, and a whole day is required to make single crystals. The process
must be carried out slowly over a period of a day in order to get a fine
crystalline structure, or to put the lattices in order.
The single crystal is then cut into thin slices and polished into wafers.
These wafers are further heated in an electric oven called a diffusion oven
to a temperature of 1,000� C in order to add N type impurity (gas) to it.
It is called a diffusion process because the N type gas permeates the wafer.
T'he main body of the single crystal solar cell is now formed.
In comparison with this complicated process, the amorphous silicon main body
can be manufactured continuously in a gas reactor oven in a single process.
It is evident from the description of these two manufacturing processes that
_ the second distinguishing feature of amorphous silicon is the fact that its
baseboard is heated to a temperature of only 300� C, and less energy is con-
sumed during its manufacturing process. The single crystal requires three
processes involving high temperatures in the range of 1,000-1,500� C, and the
_ entire process lasts a whole day. Consequently, more energy is consumed.
The energy consumed in the production of single crystal is said to be 30
times greater than that of amorphous silicon.
The third distinguishing feature of amorphous silicon.is the fact that the
film thickness required is no more than 1 micron (0.6 micron in the previous
example), with considerable savings in raw material. This is so because the
high absorption coefficient of amorphous silicon is one order of magnitude
(10 times) higher than that of single crystal.
A light-absorption coefficient which is 10 times greater means that the same
amount of light can be absorbed by a film one-~enth the thickness. The rate
of light absorption is better because the crystal is warped.
In the case of the single crystal, the thickness of the wafer comes to 300
microns, limited by the cutting technique (the limit is at best approximately
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70 microns), which is 300 times the thickness of amorphous silicon. More-
over, approximately 40 percent'of the single crystal is loat as a result of
cutting.
_ Furthermore, the facts that amorphous silicon can be applied easily to a large
area because it involves a gas reaction process and that inexpensive glass
can be used as its baseboard are the additional distinguishing features of
amorphous silicon.
Therefore~ when amorphous silicon is mass-produced, its cost is expected to
be less than one-hundredth the cost of single crystal.
Let us discuss further the "integrated" amorphous silicon developed by Sanyo
Electric. This method provides a means of obtaining an arbitrarily high
voltage from a single baseboard. The solar cell made of conventional single
crystal silicon has its elements connected in a~~series one after another with
lead wires, so its reliability is problematic. The "integrated" solar cell of
Sanyo Electric works as follows. First of all, the transparent conductive
film formed on the glass baseboard is constructed so that it has divided
electrodes. Amorphous silicon is then formed over it. The terminals of
the divided electrodes are constructed so that they protrude from the
amorphous silicon film formed over them. When aluminum electrode is vapor
deposited over the amorphous silicon film, the back side of the aluminum .
, electrodes are connected to the corresponding divided terminals.
By this method, a sheet of amorphous silicon solar cell is in effect divided
into a number of independent solar cells, and these cells are in series
connection. Director Kuwano called this method of achieving series connec-
tion of solar cells through unique patterning of the mask "IC form of solar
cell." He said that this idea was the key to practical application.
The reason this idea of "integration" is so decisive in realizing practical
application is because a voltage of only 0.5 V can be obtained so far, no
matter how bit the sheet of baseboard is, while the public electronic devices
require a minimum voltage of 1.5 V as well as higher voltages including 3 V~
6 V, and 12 V. Great lateral freedom is afforded by this "integrated format,"
so the shape of the solar cell can be varied according.to the application,
- and voltages ranging from several volts to as high as 100 volts can be ob-
tained from a single baseboard. Fo r his distinguished services in the de-
velopment of the "integrated amorphous silicon solar cell" (type I was pub-
lished in February 1979 and type II, in November 1979), Director Kuwano was
recognized in April 1980 by an award presented by the director general of the
Science and Technology Agency.
Development of this "integrated" amorphous silicon solar cell was the conclu-
sive factor which led to the completion of the pilot plant described pre-
viously. This pilot plant began production of solar cells in May 1980, pro-
ducing 5,000 solar cells per month. In September 1980, Sanyo Electric made
public the world's first electronic calculator powered by an amorphous sili-
con solar cell.
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` The reason it was first applied to the electronic calculator was based on the
fact that the sensitivity characteriatics of~amorphous silicon were roughly
in agreement with the spectral (wavelength) distribution of the fluorescent
lamp and it became operable with a light brighter than 200 lux, which is the
! mintmum brightness with which the liquid crystal display becomes visible (the
, brightness of illumination in an ordinary office is more than 300 lux by regu-
lation). ~
~ Another Important Factor--Photcelectric Conversion Efficiency .
Let us touch briefly upon the history of amorphous silicon. The importance
~ of an amorphous semiconductor was revealed to the world for the first time
by Ovsinsky [phonetic] the director of an American venture businesa, "EDC,"
in 1968. However, the semiconductor material in fashion at that time was
chalcogenite, so the study of an amorphous semiconductor did not develop
very far.
Amorphous silicon caught the attention of the world in 1975, when a profes-
sor of Spear Dandy University in Great Britain made public the fact that
amorphous silicon could be obtained from plasma deposition of silicon by
means of glow discharge and that the amorphous silicon thus formed could be
subjected to PIN control.
In the follawing year, 1976, RCA of the United States revealed that a solar,
cell could be made from amorphous silicon. This marked the beginning of ap-
plication of amorphous silicon in electronic parts.
Prompted in part by the movement of the world, the Central Research Labor-
atory of Sanyo Electric had been undertaking similar research continuously
for some time. For example, in 1967 Director Kuwano was already engaged in
studying the glow discharge of amo rphous silicon nitride, and his research
results were published in 1969 in scientific 3ournals.
Therefore, when Dr Carlson of RCA published his paper conceming an
amorphous silicon solar cell, the news served only to fuel Mr Kuwano's
fighting spirit and determination to "surpass RCA in the race."
To be sure, there was someone who scolded and encouraged Mr Kuwano. He was
Executive Director Yamano (doctor of science) who was in charge of the Tech-
nology Headquarters (the Central Research Laboratory, the Development Re-
search Laboratory, the Super LSI Technical Development Center, the Shioya Re-
search Laboratory, and the Patent Center all belong to it).
Mr. Kuwano, it appeared, was dress~d down by Executive Director Yamano: "Did
you not start this eight years ago? It is inexcusable that you should lose
it to Carlson." Incidentally, Executive Director Yamano is a graduate of
the Science Department, Kyoto University, and studied under late Dr Aideki .
Yugawa .
Executive Director Yamano is generally considered the other parent of the
- Sanyo Electric amorphous silicon solar cell, because he was mainly responsible
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for the guideline established in 1975: "Information and energy should be the
two pillars of research activities."
"The impact of the oil shock in 1973 was immense. Up to that time, our re-
eearch philosophy had put the emphasis on better living. Since 1975, the em-
phasis has been shifted to electronics in support of information and energy.~~
(Executive Director Yamano)
The first fruit produced as a result of the uuion between the Yamano line and .
the Kuwano research was Japan's first a~morphous silicon solar cell made pub-
lic in October 1978. The follawing year, in February 1979, Sanyo Electric
introduced the world's first electronic clock powered by an amorphous silicon
solar cell.
This had a big impact on the world. Because Sanyo Electric had demoa,strated�
to the world for the first time the posaibility of amorphous silicoa being
used in an industrial application. Inquiriea were said to have come even
from the U.S. Embassy and RCA. Sanyo Electric had reversed the situation with
regard to RCA.
- After that, Sanyo wae running alone so to speak, until it recently succeeded
in obtaining a U.S. patent on its "integrated amorphous silicon solar cell"
based on its continuous separated formation process. In industrial circles;
almost all future amorphous silicon solar cells either manufactured in the .
United States or exported from Japan to the United States probably will be
in conflict with the Sanyo patent right. The domestic makers of amorphous
silicon solar cells, such as Fu~i Electric and Taiyo Yuden, have all adopted
the "integration" format developed by Sanyo Electric in commercializing
their products. It is the consensus of opinion that there is no other way
but to adopt the "integrati~on" format. Director Kuwano, too, revealed his
confidence: "They probably will infringe on the patent in ma~ aspects, be-
cause this is a basic patent which covers such a wide range, which we could
not avoid...."
In Japan, in addition to three plants under Sanyo Electric which have already
begun production, Matsushita Battery Industry and Kanebuchi Chemistry have
already expressed their desire to 3oin in the manufacture and sales of
amorphous silicon products. There are more than 40 enterprises undertaking
� R&D of amorphous solar cells today. If and when Sanyo Electric establishes
its patent in Japan also, the possibility is very great that these firms will
be obliged to pay license fees.
However, it is often pointed out that am~rphous silicon has only one weak
point compared with single crystal cilicon. ~
Its photoelectric conversio~ efficiency under sunlight is lower than that of
single caystal silicon. As mentioned previously, amorphous silicon dis-
plays considerably better output characteristics (than single crystal
silicon) under fluorescent light. However, under sunlight, single crystal
silicon's sensitivity characteristics match the spectral distribution (wave-
length range) of sunlight much better than those of amorphous silicon.
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~ The photcelectric conversion efficiency is a measure of how well solar energy
; over the entire wavelength range can be converted into electricity. While
' this efficiency is in the range ~f 10-15 percent for single crystal silicon,
~ it is only half this value for the best amorphous silicon of Saayo Electric
(7.9 percent for a small area 2~ square and 5.6 percent for a large area 10
' cro square).
;
: Incidentally, a photoelectric com~ersion efficiency of 10 percent means that
100 W of electric power can be geaerated from an area 1 meter square.
;
~ Therefore, the main research theme related to amorphoua ailicon today is im-
~ provement of its photcelectric conversion efficiency.
Theoretically speaking, the photcelectric com~ersion efficiency of amorphous
silicon can be raised to as high as 12.5 percent. Based on its past re-
search experience, Sanyo Ele~tric has boiled down the research themes to the .
following three.
First of all, the quality of the amorphous silicon film must be improved.
The P layer will be improved first. To facilitate the passage of light
through the P layer, a method is being developed in which carbide (carboa)
is to be added to the layer. This method was first developed in the labor-
atory of Prof Kakuhiro Hamakawa of Osaka University. Sanyo Electric is mak-
ing preparations to use silicon carbide for the formation of the P layer in
. order to put it on the production line by April or June this year. (A
photoelectric conversion efficiency of 5.6 percent for a large area referred
ta above utilizes this silicon carbide for the formation of its P layer.
The photoelectric conversion efficiency of a large area solar cell commer-
cially available today is only 3-4 percent.)
Adoption of silicon carbide means, in concrete ter.ms, to add methaae (CHy,)
in addition to diborane and silane during the process of foraning the P layer.
Ttie I layer will be improved next. Using the same principle of gas reaction
method, Sanyo Electric ia said to be undertaking the development of a new
method of forming (manufacturing) the I layer today.
The N layer will be improved last. The approach taken is similar to that of
~ improving the P layer. Namely, a new additive is being investigated. In
short, a substance is added which will more readily attrgct the negative
' charges.
The Central Research Laboratory of Sanyo Electric is said to have some def-
inite ideas about how to carry out the research; it is confident that the
photoelectric conversion efficiency can be improved significantly. ,
~ Director Kuwano said simplyt "An efficiency of 10 percent should definitely
be realizable by 1985.'~
, So far, production of amorphous silicon solar cells remains small scale, so
its cost is only slightly less than that of single crystal silicon.
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However, Sanyo Electric estimates that the production cost of amorphous silicon
solar cells will be down to approximately 200-300 yen per watt by 1985; 60-100
yen by 1988; and 3-50 yen by 1990.
1'his means that by 1990, with a cost of 150,000-300,000 yen an amorphous
- silicon solar cell having a capacity of 3 kW aecessarq for household applica-
" tion may become attainable.
Leading the world, Sanyo Electric itself began mass production in earnest in
February at its amorphous silicon solar cell masa production plant built on
Awa~i Island, Hyogo Prefecture, with a monthly production volume of 1.5 mil- ~
lion electronic calculators. It is truly a meteoric advancement of the
amorphous silicon solar cell.
Splendid possibilities concerning the future of amorphous silicon solar cells
are being discussed today. One of them concerns an idea for.producing hydro-
gen energy~ which is dubbed the future fuel, from electrolysis of sea water
using amorphous solar cells.
Although it may be in the somewhat distant future, application of amorphous
silicon solar cells may go beyond the bounds of national life and go into the
field of electric power. That day neeri not be in the very distant future. ~
Since the development of a storage battery is lagging behind, it is impossible
to extend the utilization of amorphous silicon solar cells to night time. ~
However, it is no longer merely a dream that the day may arrive when household
appliances aYe powered by solar cells by day and by commercial power by night. .
Director Yamano of the Technology Headquarters said this: "Last October~ ~
the minister of industry of India visited Japan and expressed India~s desire
to purchase solar cells. Solar cells may not be suitable for countries in
northern latitudes, but they are most suitable for those developing countries
where there is abundant sunlight. If Japan could contribute positively to
the developing countries in securing solar energy, how wonderful it would
be."
_ Compared with the discovery of basic principles, which often depends on good
ideas, developing the first product ia considered to be far more difficult.
This is common sense in the field of research and development. Edison's
achievement in relation to the inv~ention of the light bulb is proof. In
this sense, it would not be an overstatement to say that the two research
achievements introduced in this article are comparable with Edison's.
COPYRIGHT; 1982 Bungei Shur~ju Ltd.
9113
CSO; 4106/87 ~D
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