THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 6 DECEMBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007887
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 6, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/08/08 : CIA---RDP79T00936A012400010005-4 5X1
The President's Daily Brief
December 6, 1974
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/08/08 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012400010005-4
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category 5B(
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
December 6, 1974
Table of Contents
Oil: OPEC prices may increase about $.50 per barrel.
(Page 1)
USSR-Portugal: Soviets moderating public support
for Portuguese Communists. (Page 3)
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Notes: Israel; China - South Korea; China; Greece;
West Germany (Pages 5 and 6) 25X1
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OIL
The meeting of oil ministers of the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Coun-
tries scheduled for December 12 will focus
largely on pricing policy. OPEC prices
are likely to go up about $.50 per barrel.
The participants may also discuss ways to
respond to the International Energy Pro-
gram set up by major importing nations.
The oil ministers are likely to adopt a price
system that will raise the average cost of oil from
the Persian Gulf from $9.84 to $10.35 per barrel,
excluding company profits. They may also cut into
the profits of the major oil companies by deciding
to give a larger share of available oil to the rival
independents.
Any rise in the price of oil, whether a flat
rise or one pegged to inflation, will probably be
referred to as "token" by the OPEC countries. Nev-
ertheless, every ten cent rise in price translates
into one billion dollars of added income to produc-
ers. Increases already imposed since January 1974
have added over a dollar to the cost of each barrel
of oil.
If, as seems likely, a "single price" system
is ?adopted--one established market price, with fixed
discounts for the companies that produce the oil--
consumers will be able to identify company profits
more easily. The large oil companies are concerned
that this will make it easier for consuming coun-
tries to regulate profits. US and British majors
are also worried that they will lose foreign tax
credits if OPEC countries do away with the practice
of taking much of their revenue in the form of a
tax.
It is unlikely that any OPEC member will make
a serious effort to lower the price of oil, although
some may argue for holding the line.
(continued)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Algerian Maneuvering
Last month Algerian President Boumediene, in a
bid to exert more influence over the direction of
the OPEC meeting, made an unsuccessful attempt to
shift its venue from Vienna to Algiers. Boumediene's
primary goal is to unify the producing countries on
the price issue.
He is apparently concerned over what he inter-
prets as attempts by importing countries to band to-
gether to "crack the cartel."/
One of the developments that has worried Alge-
ria and presumably some other producing countries
is the establishment by the important oil-importing
nations--minus France--of the International Energy
?Program, which is designed to ensure that the bur-
den of any future Arab embargo or cutback is shared
in an equitable way by member countries. The pro-
ducing countries may discuss developing some kind
of counterplan--most likely one to keep the oil
supply low, but not low enough to bring the im-
porters' emergency plan into effect.
, FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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USSR-PORTUGAL
The Soviet Union has apparently de-
cided to moderate its public support of
the Portuguese Communists.
Portuguese Communist Party chief Cunhal
An additional indication of Cunhal's line and
Soviet acceptance of it is the recent publication
of an interview with him in the Soviet party's
theoretical journal Kommunist. Cunhal said he in-
tended to proceed slowly in seeking to change Por-
tugal's relationship with NATO and in opposing US
use of Portuguese bases in the Azores.
the So-
viets feel dependent on Cunhal's reading of the
situation in Portugal because of their own poor
understanding of developments there. The Soviet
Union had no diplomatic relations or presence in
Portugal until this past summer.
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LOA!
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ROMANIA
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NOTES
Israel:
China:
(continued)
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Greece: Greeks are expected to vote heavily
against the return of exiled King Constantine to
the throne in the referendum on the monarchy that
will be held Sunday. The 300-member parliament,
in which Prime Minister Karamanlis' New Democracy
Party holds 220 seats, will then determine the exact
form the republic should take. Prime Minister Kara-
manlis has repeatedly expressed a preference for a
strengthened executive that would be able to speed
legislation through parliament.
West Germany:
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Top Secret
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