THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 14 OCTOBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992918
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 14, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
14 October 1971
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
14 October 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The Indian foreign minister's reaction to AMbassador
Keating's demarche underscores New Delhi's determi-
nation to continue its extensive support of East
Pakistani guerrilla forces. (Page 1)
President Thieu's strong showing in his re-election
appears to have eased political tensions in Saigon.
(Page 3)
The Jordanians have reached agreement with Saudi
and Egyptian mediators on the basis for a new ac-
cord with the fedayeen. (Page 4)
Sadat has concluded his Moscow visit, which evidently
concentrated on military aid discussions. (Page 5)
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INDIA PAKISTAN
Foreign Minister Singh's reaction to Am-
bassador Keating's demarche on 12 October
underscores his government's determination
to continue its extensive support of East
Pakistani insurgents.
Singh minimized the extent of Indian assistance
to the guerrillas. He claimed that New Delhi cannot
stop their activities, most of which, he said, occur
deep within East Pakistan and are not "cross-border
in character." Singh contended that they do not in-
form Indian authorities of their plans and professed
ignorance of any guerrilla intentions to step up
their, action, except possibly in reaction to a post-
monsoon "clean-up" drive by Pakistani forces.
India's suspicion of President Yahya's efforts
to restore civilian participation at the provincial
and national levels was evident in Singh's warning
against any attempt to promote a political settle-
ment between Islamabad and "breakaway" elements of
the Awami League in the east wing. He insisted
that any movement toward a settlement could not by-
pass the "true" East Pakistani leadership under
Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
The foreign minister asserted that India will
never attack Pakistani positions or commit any in-
cursions into Pakistani territory. He argued that
the Yahya government cannot use guerrilla operations
as a "valid" excuse to attack India.
In contrast to Yahya's favorable reaction to
the proposal for a mutual withdrawal of Indian and
Pakistani forces from the borders, Singh confined
his response to an ambiguous statement that, "We
can reconsider the situation if they withdraw."
He contended that India is honoring existing "ground
rules" concerning border developments.
Despite the foreign minister's disclaimers
of Indian support for and control over
"liberation forces," both the BangZa Desh
government-in-exile and the guerrillas
based in India are almost totally depend-
ent on India.
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New Delhi apparently continues to believe
that the present level of guerrilla opera-
tions will not provoke Pakistani military
r- t ?n? the near uture.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
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President Thieu's? show of strength in his re-elec-
tion has eased political tensions in Saigon. Small
groups of radical students are still trying to spark
confrontations with: the authorities, but most other
opposition elements seem resigned, at least for the
near term, to Thieu's remaining in power. They also
seem relieved that the possibility of a major crisis
has receded.
Thieu himself has been maintaining a low pro-
file, although. he apparently hopes to make his
in-
auguration on 31 October 'another massive display of
government-strength'. There have been reports that
he is drawing upplans to reform the government and
to seek reconciliation with opposition elements.
For the moment, Thieu's lieutenants are concentrat-
ing,on organizing support ,in the National Assembly.
Although a new spurt of disorders prior
to the inauguration is still possible,
the election demonstrated that,Thieu's
critics 'have even narrower and more re-
stricted bases of support than he. The .
dissident movement that coalesced briefly
around Vice President KY has lost momen-
tum: Big Minh has all but retired from
the political scene, and the An Quang
Buddhists show little appetite for. another
struggle with the government at this time
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JORDAN-FEDAYEEN
The Jordanians have reached an agreement with
Saudi and Egyptian mediators on a. common working
paper. According to a Jordanian diplomat, in
talks in Riyadh earlier this week the Saudis and
Egyptians accepted Jordan's demands that any feda-
yeen remaining in Jordan must operate under. army
control and that there must be no return to the
provisions of the old Amman agreement, which al-
lowed the fedayeen considerable autonomy. For their
part, the Jordanians .agreed to try to work out a
new agreement on the basis of rewording the old one.
If the mediators can persuade the feda-
yeen leaders to accept this arrangement,
their next Step will be to try to arrange'
a new conciliation conference. The feda-
yeen movement, however, remains:bitterly
divided over negotiations with the Jor-
danians. The more moderate leaders, in-
cluding Yasir Arafat, Were severely crit-
icized for merely being willing to attend
the last conference, even though they
were pressing for a return to the Amman
agreement in tota. It thus seems un-
likely that the. fedayeen will now accept
a working paper that incorporates Jordan's
more stringent terms. The adoption.of.a
common. Jordanian-Saudi-Egyptian position
will, however, tend to put the blame on
the fedayeen for failure to arrive at an
agreement.
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NOTE
USSR-Egypt: The communique issued yesterday
at the end of President Sadat's visit to Moscow
both called for a political solution in the Middle
East--endorsing the November 1967 UN Security courr
cil resolution--and reported agreement on additional,
but unspecified, Soviet military aid to Egypt. The
arrival of War Minister Sadiq in Moscow several days
.before Sadat and his remaining there after Sadat's
departure strongly suggests that the subject of mili-
tary-aid dominated the talks-. The Soviet concern
over. Sadat's support for purges in the Sudan last
summer was reflected in a joint condemnation of any
"attempts to spread anti-Communism and anti-Soviet-
ism" in the Middle East.
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