THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 29 NOVEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993000
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 29, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
29 November 1971
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
29 November 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The latest military and diplomatic moves in the Indo-
Pakistani situation are discussed on Page 1.
The assassination of Jordanian Premier Wasfi Tal adds
new strains to already troubled inter-Arab relation-
ships, especially between Amman and Cairo. (Page 3)
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations gingerly
endorses neutralization as a long-term regional goal.
(Page 4)
Four more Soviet TU-16 Badger aircraft have arrived
at Aswan in Egypt for a total of 13. (Page 5)
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8
NEPAL
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INDIA
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ymensingh
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BAY OF BENGAL
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Chittagong
MILES
92
? 24 -
55218711-71
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INDIA-PAKISTAN
Firing continues along most of the East Paki-
stani border and there is fighting in several areas.
A Pakistani claim to have repulsed five attacks in
battalion strength at various points along the bor-
der is countered by the Indian assertion of Mukti
Bahini success in most of these areas.
/ Neither side appears to
have scored decisive military gains.
the Paki-
stani Army has had to remain on the defensive in
the east because of a shortage of supplies and equip-
ment. The army expects to be able to defend East
Pakistan for a month or more and to limit Indian
penetration to ten to 15 miles if the Indians do
not use air power. If, however, a large area is
lost during a major Indian offensive, the Pakistani
Eastern Command reportedly believes that an attack
on India would immediately be launched from West
Pakistan.
Radio Pakistan claimed that yesterday India
began a "large-scale new offensive" using two divi-
sions, tanks, artillery, and in one instance air
power, attacking into widely separated areas on
East Pakistan's northern, northeastern, and western
borders. New Delhi, however, has acknowledged only
three "defensive" cross-border. raids. While the
Indians have helped the Mukti Bahini establish foot-
holds inside East Pakistan, New Delhi appears to be
carefully orchestrating the level of hostilities in
order to force Pakistani President Yahya Khan to-
ward a political settlement of the crisis with the
Bengalis.
During a conversation in Islamabad with US Am-
bassador Farland on 27 November, Atal said that New
Delhi did not consider Mujib to be the one and only
key, to the crisis and that India did not want the
partition of Pakistan. Rather, he said, New Delhi
envisioned a "loose confederation" of the two wings
as an acceptable solution. To effect this, Atal
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said that he thought that Mrs. Gandhi, although pre-
viously unenthusiastic, would now "look with favor"
on a meeting between Islamabad and Bangla Desh rep-
resentatives.
AtaZ and the Indian Foreign Ministry have
had divergent views on the crisis in the
past and a press release from New Delhi
on 28 November, stating that Mrs. Gandhi
had again called for the immediate release
of Mujib, would seem to indicate little
softening of the Indian line.
Yahya, meanwhile, is continuing his attempts
to internationalize the crisis despite negative at-
titudes in New Delhi and Moscow. Pakistani Foreign
Secretary Sultan Khan told Ambassador Farland yes-
terday that he had sent a message to UN Secretary
General U Thant asking that UN observers be sta-
tioned on the East Pakistani border as soon as pos-
sible.
New Delhi is opposed to posting UN ob-
servers on the Indian side of the border
and Yahya's move appears to be designed
to thwart Indian cross-border operations
as well as to demonstrate Pakistan's
"peaceful" intentions.
2
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JORDAN - ARAB STATES
The immediate effect of the assassination of Jor-
danian Premier Wasfi Tal yesterday in Cairo will
be to stifle any lingering sentiment for accommo-
dation with the fedayeen. Although the group af-
filiation of Tal's assailants is unknown, the Jor-
danians doubtless attribute the act to the feda-
yeen. An intensified campaign to identify and
dispose of militant Palestinians is likely, and
retaliatory assassination attempts against fedayeen
leaders outside the country are possible.
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I Tal, who had been opposed by
Palestinian groups ever since his appointment in
October 1970, was one of the executors of King
Husayn's mopping-up campaign against the fedayeen.
Tea was in Cairo for meetings of the Arab Defense
Council where he presumably presented the Jordanian
side in discussions of the problems of the fedayeen.
Mediation efforts sponsored by the Saudis and Egyp-
tians had broken down on Friday.
Although Egypt probably was not involved in the
slaying, Cairo may be criticized by Amman because
of its well-known coolness to Tal? dating from his
outspoken opposition to Nasir in the early 1950s.
In any case, the incident will further hinder Egyp-
tian ?efforts to form a united Arab stand against
Israel. President Sadat had been using the recent
series of Arab ministerial meetings to try to forge
a common Arab position in the pending UN General
Assembly debate on the Middle East question.
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SOUTHEAST ASIA
The key issue of the recently concluded foreign
ministers' meeting of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) concerned the
neutralization .as-a-way- of guaranteeing the region's
long-term security. As anticipated, Malaysia, the
leading exponent of neutralization, was not: able to
win the support of ASEAN's other members?Singapore,
Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines?for more
than -a broadly worded communique citing neutraliza-
tion as a desirable future objective. The-misgivings
of the Philippines and Thailand', anxious to protect
bilateral agreements with the US, and Indonesia,
which desires to keep the US involved in the:region,
were instrumental in blocking Kuala Lumpur's efforts
to get a more far-reaching declaration. A: committee
was appointed to explore the practical problems of
neutrality, particularly the selling of the idea to
Southeast Asian nations which are not-members of
ASEAN. Malaysia will push for more concrete steps
at an ASEAN "summit" meeting scheduled for Manila
next March.
The meeting represents ASEAN's first con-
crete attempt in its four-year existence
to come to grips with a problem of funda-
mental importance to the region. Despite
members' skepticism about implementation,
the organization is now on record in favor
of the neutralization concept. How it de-
velops will depend largely on the attitudes
of the US and other major powers in Asia.
Perhaps the most important effect will be
to breathe life into ASEAN and encourage
the countries in the area to think about
the future.
4
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USSR-EGYPT
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Four more Soviet TU-16 Badger aircraft arrived
at Aswan on 24 25, and 27 November.
Of the ten TU-16s that have flown to Aswan
since 5 November, five have been positively
identified as "G" variants that can carry
two AS-5 Kelt air-to-surface missiles.
Three others have been identified as mis-
sile carriers, and the two that were ?not
seen are probably also missile carriers.
Total TU-16 strength at Aswan now stands
at 13--eight missile carriers, two probable
missile carriers, one electronic counter-
measures type, and two whose particular
mission is unknown. The basing of TU-16
missile aircraft in Egypt gives the Soviet
Mediterranean Squadron an additional strike
capability.
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