THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 5 MAY 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993815
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 5, 1973

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A4011600010029-7
The President's Daily Brief
5 May 1973
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 58(1),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
5 May 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The latest cease-fire in Lebanon seems to be hold-
ing as negotiations begin on new arrangements for
the fedayeen presence. (Page 1)
Egypt and Syria, with the help of other Arab states
are increasing their military preparedness.
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Arab states are considering several possible courses
of action during the coming UN Security Council de-
bate on the Middle East. These are outlined on
Page 4.
With the rainy season soon to slow movement on the
Ho Chi Minh trail, time is running against any Com-
munist plan for a major offensive in South Vietnam
this spring. (Page 5)
The meeting on Thursday between Argentine president-
elect Campora and the ruling military junta failed
to resolve any outstanding issues. (Page 6)
Urban guerrillas have kidnaped the US consul general
in Guadalajara. (Page 7)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON-FEDAYEEN
The latest cease-fire appears to be holding up
well as negotiations begin on new arrangements re-
garding the fedayeen presence in Lebanon.
The guerrillas' tough pose eased when the army,
showed it was determined to restore order and the
expected support to the fedayeen from other Arab
states did not materialize. Small numbers of Syrian-
based guerrillas did cross the border, but may al-
ready have returned to Syria.
President Franjiyah plans to insist on further
restrictions on the guerrillas' freedom of action.
The Lebanese believe they are in a strong position
and can exact concessions. The government expects
that mediation efforts by the other Arabs should be
generally helpful. Representatives from Egypt, Iraq,
and Morocco arrived in Beirut yesterday.
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ARAB STATES
Egypt and Syria are increasing their military
preparedness with the help of other Arab states.
duty
The Egyptian Air Force has recalled t ve
reserve personnel
Such recalls have occurred in the
past during periods of heightened tension. The
Egyptian Air Force has been on a high state of alert
leaves were canceled
Morocco reportedly has sent at least two more
trainloads of military equipment to Algeria for
shipment to Syria. Some 600 Moroccan troops may
already have arrived.
the
Sudanese Government has agreed to send 1,400 troops
to Syria as a token demonstration of Sudanese soli-
darity with the Arab cause.
Meetings of Arab officials over the past
several months?including a recent con-
ference of the Arab Defense League?may
have set the stage for these moves. There
still is no conclusive evidence, however,
that the Arabs have decided on specific
military, operations or have reached a de-
cision to undertake hostilities against
Israel at a particular time.
(continued)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
MIDDLE EAST
During the UN Security Council's coming debate
on the Middle East, the Arabs are thinking of pursu-
ing any or all of the following courses:
--Request that Resolution 242, the basis for
UN efforts to work out a Middle East settlement,
be interpreted to require Israeli withdrawal
from all occupied territories.
--Propose resolutions condemning the Israelis
for failure to respond to the initiatives of
special UN envoy Jarring, and for colonizing
the occupied territories.
--Call on UN members to withhold military as-
sistance from Israel.
--Attempt to create new UN mediatory mechanisms.
This could take the form of a mandate for the
secretary-general to plan a Middle East peace
conference or to set up a four-member mediatory
team or an ad hoc committee to replace Jarring.
Given the current composition of the Se-
curity Council, the Arabs probably could
muster enough votes to pass these meas-
ures unless the US vetoes them. Although
the Arabs might face some difficulty in
reinterpreting the basic authorization for
UN efforts on a Middle East settlement,
they would have more than the necessary
nine votes for condemnation of Israel or
for new mediatory mechanisms.
In any case, the session will provide the
Arabs with a forum to bring pressure on
the US to take new initiatives and could
provide them with a temporary alternative
to resuming military hostilities.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SOUTH VIETNAM
Time is running against the Communists if they were
planning to use their newly infiltrated men and ma-
teriel for a major offensive this spring. The rainy
season will begin to slow movement on the Ho Chi
Minh trail shortZy, and vital combat support from
back-country bases in many areas will be badly im-
peded.
The traditional indicators of preparations for a big
campaign--forward deployments, stepped-up communica-
tions, intense reconnaissance--are almost totally
lacking at present. In the north, the Communists
have cut back their combat punch by withdrawing one
full division and elements of two others. Drier
weather prevails along the coast in the north for
the next three months, however, and major combat
would be more possible there than elsewhere.
There are reports claiming that during May the Com-
munists will try to intensify the local nibbling at-
tacks they have been conducting since the cease-
fire. But throughout the summer and the rainy pe-
riod at least, the Communists will more likely put
their major military effort into the rebuilding,
realignment, and consolidation of main forces, the
logistic system, and the specialized sapper and ar-
tillery units.
the enemy
believes himself still too weak to
make major gains now in a maximum new militaru
fort.
the cease-fire agreement
? gains time for the Communists to rally and build
their forces in order to defeat the government mili-
tarily or politically./
By emphasizing a rebuilding program and employing
economy-of-force tactics stressing artillery har-
assment and small-scale raids, the Communists prob-
ably believe they can defend most of what they now
control and have a much improved military option
by next fall.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
ARGENTINA
The meeting about terrorism on Thursday between
president-elect Campora and the ruling military
junta failed to resolve any of the issues that di-
vide them, little
was accomplished other than a rehash of well-known
basic differences.
The Peronists contend that terrorism will sub-
side once a popular government is inaugurated on
May 25. The military disagree, and they can point
to statements from Trotskyists that they will con-
tinue to attack the armed forces. The army and
navy--the primary targets of recent attacks--insist
that they retain control of the counter-terrorism
effort. Campora has said only that internal secu-
rity will be the responsibility of the police, not
the military.
Campora apparently still believes that,
after his strong showing at the polls,
the military will not risk civil war by
moving to block his accession to power.
Most senior officers do believe that they
are in no position to act against the
Peronists at the present time. This view
could change, however, if additional ter-
rorist attacks are made on the armed
forces and Campora continues to evade
making commitments to the military. Hard-
liners Zed by General Sanchez de Bustamente,
the Buenos Aires corps commander, might
then decide to risk a move to block Cam-
pora.
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NOTE
Mexico-US: Last night urban guerrillas kid-
naped US Consul General Leonhardy in Guadalajara
and demanded as ransom the release of 30 "political
prisoners" held in Mexico. The Mexican police be-
lieve that the terrorist group--identified as the
Revolutionary Armed Forces of the People--is asso-
ciated with a guerrilla band that normally operates
in the mountains near Acapulco, some 250 miles to
the southeast. If the Mexican Government follows
its practice in past kidnaping cases, it will meet
practically any demand to gain Leonhardy's release.
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