THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 31 MAY 1973

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993837
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 31, 1973

Declassified in in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2
The President's Daily Brief
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31 May 1973
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25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2
Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5I311)213)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
31 May 1973
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
COSVN has ordered Communist forces in South Vietnam
to prepare for peacetime activities by early June,
and not to prepare for a renewal of fighting.
(Page 1)
Chinese leaders appear to be in an increasingly
sharp debate over agricultural policy. (Page 2)
The fluctuation experienced by the dollar in Euro-
pean money markets during recent weeks could con-
tinue indefinitely. (Page 3)
The Soviets and the Yugoslays are quarreling about
the use of $540 million in Russian credits extended
last summer. (Page 4)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
VIETNAM
The Communists in the south have issued new
directives to their forces "not to prepare for any
renewal of fighting," but to press ahead with the
economic and political development of Viet Cong -
held areas.- In the latest COSVN instructions, Viet
cong officials are being told that the talks between
Le Duc Tho and Dr. Kissinger would lead to a "true
political settlement," a "real agreement," and that
there would be "no rekindling of the war."
This "once in a lifetime" opportunity is pos-
sible, according to COSVN, because by early June
"all hostilities will end," ?the US will not return,
and the Saigon government Will accept a "real cease-
fire agreement." COSVN also expects a cease-fire
in Cambodia in June, which will facilitate trade and
other economic endeavors in South Vietnam's border
provinces.
The Communist command apparently is trying
to ensure that these orders are clearly
understood by subordinate political and
military officers. A provincial party
officer who attended a briefing on these
latest instructions reported that "the
COSVN people are pushing us very hard."
Intercepted communications show that sim-
ilar orders have been passed to some COSVN
main-force units. Although the units are
authorized to occupy some villages if the
opportunity presents itself, they are
under orders "not to initiate military
attacks." In northernmost Quang Tri Prov-
ince, some North Vietnamese troops have
been told to stay away from areas close
to the government's front lines, effective
May 30.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CHINA
Last year's poor harvest appears to have
touched off an increasingly sharp debate among Chi-
nese leaders over agricultural policy.
The five-percent decline in China's grain
production in 1972, caused primarily by
poor weather, showed that the immense ef-
forts of the past decade to improve irri-
gation and drainage are still insufficient
to ensure a good crop against the vagaries
of nature.
Recent radiobroadcasts suggest that the
leadership is attempting to come to grips
with the problem but has not been able to
reach a unified view because of differences
in political outlook. Pragmatic leaders,
for example, appear to be behind broad-
casts emphasizing a need for realism and
careful regulation of corrective agricul-
tural policies.
Their argument seems to be directed against
the calls of militant leaders for more
drastic measures, ?such as transformation
of mountains and ravines into new crop-
lands. Peasants, whose food rations and
amenities have been cut because of floods
and drought, would be asked to shoulder
the burdens of such radical measures with-
out compensation. Any such policy would
be difficult to organize or administer.
Even though militant leaders appear to be-
lieve that peasant resistance could be
overcome, it is doubtful that the measures
they advocate will be adopted. Huge labor-
intensive efforts to clear and terrace
hillsides for cultivation would require
more, not less, food for laborers. Given
the continuing uncertainty over this
year's weather and the outlook for the
harvest, the situation would seem to call
for a cautious agricultural policy rather
than one of unrestrained development. It
is nevertheless often the case that polit-
ical reasons rather than economic logic
dictate the decisions that are finally
taken in China.
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
The dollar again came under pressure in Euro-
pean markets yesterday and now is at its lowest
point, relative to the European joint float curren-
cies, since the float was introduced on March 19.
In part, selling reflected dealers reluc-
tance to hold dollars during widespread
market closings for the Ascension Day
holiday today. In addition, Bonn's tight-
ening of credit yesterday helped the mark
to appreciate sharply relative to the dol-
lar, causing some other currencies to fol-
low suit.
The psychology of currency trading in-
creasingly resembles that of the stock
exchanges, as dealers respond to new po-
litical and economic developments through-
out the world. The fluctuation experienced
by the dollar in recent weeks apparently
could continue indefinitely.
Meanwhile, the price of gold continues to rise--
$115 in London yesterday--despite a sizable increase
in total world sales of gold. Soviet gold sales for
the first quarter of 1973 are equivalent to 60 per-
cent of their total sales last year and may have
netted the Soviets as much as $250 million in for-
eign exchange. Total world sales of newly mined
gold during the first quarter of this year are more
than eight percent above the first quarter of 1972.
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
NOTES
Yugoslavia-USSR: Belgrade and Moscow are
squabbling over the use of $540 million in Soviet
credits extended to Yugoslavia last summer. The
dispute concerns the effect of recent dollar de-
valuations on the prices each side is willing to
put on individual projects. Belgrade insists that
world prices before devaluation be the standard,
but Moscow wants to add a nominal upward revaluation
of the ruble. Last week the Belgrade daily Politika
disclosed that none of the credits have been used
and that negotiations are well advanced on only
three of 38 proposed projects. This appears to be
an effort by Belgrade to raise the dispute to the
political level, which it hopes will generate pres-
sure on Moscow to be more forthcoming.
The Netherlands: The newly formed center-left
coalition government has reaffirmed the Netherland's
commitment to NATO, but has linked it to an appeal
for increased efforts to achieve understandings
with the Soviets and East Europeans. This emphasis
on Eastern relations is a significant departure for
the Dutch, who have generally been skeptical about
detente initiatives. The government will submit a
white paper on restructuring the armed forces to
parliament in the fall. Some officials also en-
visage a specialization of tasks within NATO that
would allow West Germany or another country to
assume responsibility for the Netherlands' air de-
fense. Budget cuts already scheduled for this year
will kill plans to buy a new generation of fighter
aircraft.
4
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Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A011600010051-2