THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 31 DECEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466937
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 31, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
December 31, 1976
2
-To7/4.e.c,.geL_
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 I 1652
exemption category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
December 31, 1976
Table of Contents
Spain: The release on bail of Communist leader Santiago Carrillo
and seven other party officials will probably ease tensions
and give a boost to government negotiations with the opposi-
tion. (Page 1)
Egypt: President Sadat's suggestion that any future Palestinian
state should be linked with Jordan is not a new idea with
him, and he is not likely to press it now unless he can se-
cure Syrian agreement. (Page 2)
Canada: Canada's more stringent policy on the export of nuclear
equipment and materials may substantially reduce its foreign
sales for some time. (Page 3)
Notes: USSR; China; Bangladesh-China (Pages 5 and 6)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
SPAIN: The release on
bail of Spanish Commu-
nist leader Santiago
Carrillo and seven
other party officials--
who were arrested last
week--will probably
ease tensions and give
a boost to government
negotiations with the
opposition.
The Communist Party re-
mains banned. It can-
not operate openly as
a political party, but
the government allows
it considerable free-
dom to participate in
broad opposition ac-
tivities.
The tension over Car-
rillo's arrest may
have increased pres-
sure on the government
to tighten its control
over the security forces,
which are widely be-
lieved to be too tol-
erant of far-rightist
excesses and too harsh
with the emerging left.
Only hours after Carrillo left
prison, the Spanish government
announced the abolition of the
controversial Public Order Court
that had handled his case; the gov-
ernment also removed terrorist of-
fenses from military jurisdiction.
Political and terrorist cases will
now be handled by ordinary civilian
courts.
These moves, which have long been
demanded by the opposition, will
anger rightist diehards. The
greatest immediate danger in the
present situation is that Carrillo
will become a target for right-
wing terrorists. 25X1
One formula for Communist partici-
pation in the elections would be
a tacit agreement allowing party
members to run as "independents"
or as part of a leftist coalition.
The question of Communist partic-
ipation will probably be addressed
later during specific negotiations
between the government and the op-
position on the elections.
It was announced on December 23
that the director general of se-
curity and the heads of the two
paramilitary national police
forces--the civil guard and the
armed police--would be replaced.
Two more high security officials
were removed on December 27.
--continued
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EGYPT: Egyptian Pres-
ident Sadat's sugges-
tion in an interview
with The Washington
Post published yester-
day that any future
Palestinian state
should be linked with
Jordan is not a new
idea with Sadat, but
it is one he has not
pressed for two years
and one he is unlikely
to press now unless
he can secure Syrian
agreement.
These changes, which show signs of
high-level and even royal involve-
ment, are probably an extension of
earlier initiatives by King Juan
Carlos and Prime Minister Suarez
to replace politically oriented
Francoist holdouts in the military
and security forces with officers
more willing to do the government's
bidding.
* * *
Sadat was somewhat cautious in
discussing the issue with the Post,
but he seemed to be trying to give
the impression for US benefit that
he retains sufficient strength to
force such a suggestion through
Arab councils. It is questionable
whether he does have this much in-
fluence.
In an effort to facilitate peace
negotiations in 1974, Sadat urged
the Palestine Liberation Organiza-
tion to allow Jordan to negotiate
with Israel for the return of the
West Bank, on the understanding
that the territory might thereafter
be turned over to the Palestinians
as an independent state or semi-
autonomous region linked to Jordan.
His proposal was defeated at the
Rabat summit in October 1974, when
the Arab states stripped Jordan
of negotiating authority for the
West Bank and designated the PLO
the sole representative of the
Palestinian people. Sadat has
deferred to this Arab position
since then.
Sadat's credibility among the Arabs
was damaged too badly by the sec-
ond Sinai agreement last year to
allow him any longer to pursue an
2
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CANADA: Canada's new,
more stringent policy
on the export of nu-
clear equipment and ma-
terials may substan-
tially reduce its for-
eign sales for some
time.
independent negotiating course or
to press positions with which the
other key Arab states are not in
agreement. In fact, in another
interview published yesterday in
an Arab magazine, he did not men-
tion the possibility of Palestin-
ian-Jordanian linkage at all.
Canadian Foreign Minister Jamieson
announced on December 22 that fu-
ture shipments of Canadian reac-
tors and uranium would be re-
stricted to states that have ei-
ther ratified the Non-Proliferation
Treaty or have accepted interna-
tional safeguards on their entire
nuclear programs. It is the latter
condition that broadens the tradi-
tionally stringent Canadian safe-
guards policy.
By requiring that its customers
place their entire nuclear programs
under international safeguards,
Canada is attempting to assure
that not only Canadian-supplied
equipment, but all materials a
country receives or produces it-
self, fall under the international
inspection regime.
Despite Canadian warnings for some
time that additional restrictions
would be imposed on its nuclear
sales abroad, neither the nine
West European members of the EC
nor the Pakistanis have met the
Canadians' requirements that would
permit continued commerce between
the countries. Recently Ottawa re-
jected the latest Pakistani counter-
offer on safeguards coverage, and
it is increasingly unlikely that
the two countries will be able to
work out a nuclear supply agree-
ment.
--continued
3
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The problem with the Europeans is
more complex. Under a 1973 agree-
ment between IAEA and EURATOM--not
yet in force--international safe-
guards have been accepted in prin-
ciple by EC states. On the assump-
tion that the EURATOM-IAEA safe-
guards agreement will soon enter
into force, Canada has been supply-
ing the Europeans for the past sev-
eral years. France, however, as
a non-NPT country, has now rejected
the blanket application of IAEA
safeguards to its facilities. To
get around this obstacle to the
implementation of the IAEA-EURATOM
agreement, some EC countries will
have to pass national legislation
accepting IAEA safeguards.
Canadian uranium shipments to Eu-
rope could still continue if the
Canadians agreed to accept a pro-
visional application of IAEA safe-
guards to EC countries, other than
France, pending formal national
legislation and to deal with the
French on a case-by-case basis.
Canada, however, has also raised
broader nonproliferation issues,
such as restraints on technology
transfer, that the Europeans may
find difficult to accept.
--continued
4
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\
Soviet Missile Firings
Norwegian
Sea
Barent
Sea
0
6
White ea ?
Nenoksa
*
MOSCOW
Kamchatka
Norilsk
55
SR
PACIFIC
.00EAN
1
i
Tyuratam
0 1000 NAUTICAL MILES
0 1000 KILOMETERS
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The recent spate of So-
viet SS-NX-18 firings
suggests that the new
missile--which has been
tested with both a
single re-entry vehicle
and with MIRVs--will be
ready for loading on
operational D-IIIs by
next summer.
An SS-17 Mod 2 was
fired yesterday from
the Tyuratam test cen-
ter to Kamchatka.
Chen I-sung, vice-chair-
man of China's National
People's Congress, has
reaffirmed in the course
of interviews with Jap-
anese newsmen--now
available in fairly
complete versions--Pe-
king's three precondi-
tions for normalization
of relations with the
US.
NOTES
Two SS-NX-18 SLBMs were fired yes-
terday from a submarine--probably
a D-III--in the Norwegian Sea to
Norilsk, a distance of approxi-
mately 1,350 nautical miles.
This variant of the SS-17 carries
a single re-entry vehicle on a new
post-boost vehicle, uses the same
booster as the MIRVed SS-17, and
has been tested at least nine
times this year. We expect that
this version will probably be op-
erational next year.
* * *
These are abrogation of the US-
Taiwan defense treaty, withdrawal
of US forces from Taiwan, and sev-
erance of diplomatic relations
with Taipei. Chen said China
would continue its refusal to prom-
ise that it would not forcefully
incorporate Taiwan. Chen offered
only the assurance that, in prin-
ciple, China will seek a peaceful
reunification, if circumstances
allow.
5
--continued
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2bA1
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Bangladeshi strongman
Zia ur-Rahman will be-
gin an official visit
to China on Sunday.
Chen's statements are a further in-
dication of China's interest in
progress toward establishing full
diplomatic relations with the US
early in the life of the incoming
administration. They may also be
intended to give an appearance of
a conciliatory stance by Peking as
a means toward ending US insist-
ence on a Chinese guarantee not to
use force in Taiwan, a demand Pe-
king has repeatedly turned aside.
A Bangladeshi Foreign Ministry of-
ficial told the US embassy that
Zia will seek assistance in areas
such as water management and de-
fense aid. The official said Zia
particularly wants small arms and
the reactivation of an ordnance
plant China built when Bangladesh
was still part of Pakistan.
China, which is gradually improv-
ing relations with India, is likely
to treat Zia's request for military
aid cautiously. Chinese military
aid to Bangladesh to date has been
limited and has served to maintain
rather than to improve Bangladesh's
armed forces.
6
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Top Secret
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