THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 19 DECEMBER 1972

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005993685
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 19, 1972

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The President's Daily Brief
19 December 1972
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Exempt from general
declassification scheduk of E,O. 11652
exemption category 51310A2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
19 December 1972
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
(k-'age I)
Initial Soviet press reaction to Dr. Kissinger's
statement on the Paris peace talks has emphasized
the positive. Thus far, the Chinese have handled
the latest difficulties in routine fashion. (Page 2)
Truong Chinh, the second-ranking man in the North
Vietnamese Politburo, is leading a delegation to
Moscow--a task usually handled by First Secretary
Le Duan. (Page 3)
The USSR Central Committee plenum that had been ex-
pected on Saturday was held yesterday: (Page 4) At
the opening session of the Supreme Soviet also held
yesterday, the USSR disclosed that because of the
disappointing economic performance this year, major
plan goals for 1973 will have to be scaled down.
(Page 5)
China conducted two launch rehearsals at the Shuang-
cheng-tzu missile test center late last week, appar-
ently for a test launch of China's large two-stage
ICBM. (Page 7)
A second round of purges appears to be under way in
Serbia as Yugoslav President Tito continues to ,
tighten his control. (Page 7)
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SOUTH VIETNAM
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USSR-CHINA-VIETNAM
Initial Soviet press reaction to Dr. Kissinger's
statement on the Paris peace talks has emphasized
the positive. The Soviets have accused the US of
seeking to delay a Vietnam agreement, but reported
Dr. Kissinger's remarks that the prospects for reach-
ing an agreement are better now than in October,
that contacts with the North Vietnamese would con-
tinue, and that the US would then be able to decide
whether and when to meet with the North Vietnamese
again. The Soviets have also noted North Vietnam's
alleged willingness to continue the negotiations and
to sign the agreement, the "earlier the better."
All of these reactions preceded the lifting of the
bombing restrictions above the 20th parallel, of which
TASS took brief note yesterday.
Soviet dismay over the lack of progress toward
a settlement comes through more clearly in the TASS
description of Le Duc Tho's meeting on 16 December
with Politburo member Kirilenko. Kirilenko report-
edly expressed confidence that "the forces that come
out against a peaceful settlement will not be allowed
to negate the results achieved thus far."
The North Vietnamese News Agency account of
the meeting did not pick up these remarks.
The Chinese have handled the latest difficulties
in the negotiations in routine fashion so far. Ac-
cording to a Chinese press account of Premier Chou
En-lai's meeting with Le Duc Tho, Chou expressed
support for Hanoi's "correct position" in the nego-
tiations, said that a settlement should be concluded
at an early date, and pledged Chinese support in
broad terms until the war ends--positions that Chou
and other Chinese spokesmen have articulated several
times in recent months.
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NORTH VIETNAM
.TruOng Chinh,? the second-ranking man in the
Politburo, left Hanoi on 16 December at the head
of a'delegationto Moscow for ceremonies marking
the 50th anniversary of the Soviet Union's found-
ing. Hoang Van Hoan, another Politburo figure,
is a member of the delegation. During the cus-
tomary stopover iriPeking, the members of the dele-
gation saw Premier Chou En-lai, and briefed some
members of the diplomatic community.-
Truong Chinh's appearance could suggest
some increase in his status relative
to First Secretary Le Duan, who has usu-
ally handled major party representational
functions in Moscow himself. On the
other hand, the North Vietnamese may
have decided that Le Duan was needed at
home in this critical period. With
Deputy Premier Le Thanh Nghi now in
Paris, three of the ten Politburo mem-
bers normally resident in Hanoi are out
of the country.
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USSR
The meeting of the Central Committee that had
been expected on Saturday was held yesterday. The
plenum approved the budget and a revised economic
plan for 1973, and, as expected, dropped V. P.
Mzhavanadze as a candidate member of the Politburo.
The plenum also named Vladimir I. Dolgikh to the
party secretariat.
Mzhavanadze's retirement in September as
Georgian party chief--accompanied by a
publicized crackdown on corruption and
mismanagement in the republic?presaged
his departure from the Politburo.
We expect that Dolgikh, a 48-year old in-
dustrial manager with broad experience in
developing industry in Siberia, will as-
sume responsibility for heavy industry.
Dolgikh does not appear to have close ties
to any senior leaders in Moscow.
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USSR
Gosplan Chairman Baibakov announced at the open-
ing session of the Supreme Soviet yesterday that na-
tional income in the USSR this year grew only four
percent--the lowest increase since 1963.
This figure reflects the failure to fulfill
the industrial goal and the large decline
in agricultural output. The primary causes
of the industrial slowdown are the admitted
failure to introduce new production capac-
ity, exemplified by unfulfilled gas and
oil goals, and the slow growth in the food
industry, a direct result of the poor har-
vest.
Baibakov disclosed that as a consequence of the
poor economic performance this year, major plan
goals for 1973 will have to be scaled down. Indus-
trial production, for example, is scheduled to grow
at only 5.8 percent compared with the 7.8 percent
previously planned. Particularly hard hit was the
so-called group B industries--largely consumer goods--
trimmed from 8.1 percent to 4.5 percent. The agri-
cultural sector, however, remains a high priority
area and will receive as much investment as origi-
nally planned.
These large agricultural investments will
not, however, result in immediate benefits
to the consumer. Although the USSR has
purchased enough grain to make up for its
1972 shortfall, shortages of other farm -
products and a reduced Livestock inventory
will depress the 1973 growth in supplies
of consumer goods. In fact, Baibakov
could only promise that "in the main" sup-
plies of food and other consumer goods
will be sufficient.
Finance Minister Garbuzov reported to the Su-
preme Soviet session that the planned Soviet defense
budget of 17.9 billion rubles will remain unchanged
for the third year in a row.
(continued)
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The announcement of a stable defense budget
is presumably dictated by Moscow's desire
to project an image of moderation and de-
tente consistent with the spirit of the
Strategic Arms Limitation Agreement. The
published figure, however, excludes most
of the funds for military research and de-
velopment, the most rapidly growing element
in the Soviet defense effort. This is
largely financed under the heading of
science expenditures. Total science allo-
cations are slated to increase from 14.4
billion rubles planned for 1972 to 15.5
billion rubles in 1973, a rise of seven
percent.
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Launch Rehearsals at Shuang-ch'eng-tzu
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NOTES
China: China conducted two launch rehearsals
at the Shuang-cheng-tzu missile test center' late
last week, apparently for a test launch of China's
large two-stage ICBM.
Al-
though the the first test was successful, the second,
in August, was a partial failure. The missile
landed roughly 400 nautical miles from the intended
impact area. Both tests were to reduced ranges.
Another satellite launch is an alternate, but less
likely, possibility.
Yugoslavia: A second round of purges appears
to be under way in Serbia as President Tito con-
tinues to tighten his control. Last Friday a Serb
party plenum announced that enough pro-Tito ap-
pointees had been added to the party secretariat
to establish a majority over the followers of for-
mer party boss Nikezic, who was ousted last October.
Yesterday it was announced that a Nikezic appointee
had resigned from the party leadership in the sub-
ordinate Vojvodina party organization. He may well
be followed by the Kosovo regional boss, who also
had close ties with Nikezic.
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