THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 19 OCTOBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466875
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 19, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
October 19, 1976
2
- Top S cret 25X1
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Exempt from general
declassification scheduk of EO 11652
exempuon category 5B( I
declassified only on approval of
the Duvctor or Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 19, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Syrian President Asad and Egyptian President Sadat, by
papering over their differences, made it possible for the
Arab mini-summit to agree on a formula for ending the Leb-
anese civil war. The present plan appears to offer the 25X1
best chance yet of ending the fighting. (Page 1)
Rhodesia/
//
Notes: USSR; Guyana; Ethiopia; West Germany - UK; Norway - North
Korea (Pages 4, 5 and 6)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON: Syrian Pres-
ident Asad and Egyptian
President Sadat papered
over their differences,
making it possible for
the mini-summit on Leb-
anon to agree on a for-
mula for ending the
Lebanese civil war.
Because of the Syrian
and Egyptian agreement,
the present plan ap-
pears to offer the best
chance yet of ending
the fighting.
The compromise reached during the
summit meeting in Saudi Arabia
suggests that Asad acknowledged
Sadat's claim to Arab leadership
and Sadat recognized Syrian pri-
macy in Lebanon. Moreover, Egypt
and Syria agreed to stop their
propaganda war and to resume nor-
mal diplomatic relations.
The summit resolutions leave sev-
eral questions open. It is unclear
which countries will contribute to
the Arab League force, which is
to be expanded to 30,000 troops,
and whether Syrian troops are to
be considered combatants or part
of the peace-keeping force. The
question of Syrian troop with-
drawals is left to the discretion
of Lebanese President Sarkis, who
is susceptible to Syrian and
Christian influence.
At any rate, the call for a com-
plete cease-fire by October 21
and a withdrawal of all combatants
from major areas of fighting within
five to ten days thereafter cannot
possibly be implemented without
Syrian cooperation.
The pact could still fall apart
as a result of mistrust or the
continued opposition of the allies
of the Palestinians and Syrians,
who were not represented at the
summit meeting. The Lebanese
Christians are likely to be reluc-
tant to give back any of the ter-
ritory they recently gained. Nor
is PLO leader Arafat likely to
have an easy time persuading the
Lebanese leftists or more radical
fedayeen groups to come around.
--continued
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The USSR still gives
no evidence that it is
willing to go beyond
rhetorical support for
the Lebanese leftists.
Although Arafat got some relief
from Syrian military pressure and
some room for maneuver between
Sadat and Asad, he now knows that
Egypt and Syria are willing to
compromise at the expense of the
Palestinians in order to promote
their own national interests.
Meanwhile, Christian forces appar-
ently captured the Palestinian
stronghold of Marj Uyun in south-
ern Lebanon near the Israeli bor-
der.
An authoritative Observer article
in yesterday's Pravda castigated
the recent Syrian military offen-
sive in Lebanon, but made no call
for a Syrian withdrawal. A sub-
sequent statement from the unof-
ficial Afro-Asian Solidarity Com-
mittee called for an "immediate
termination" of military action
against the Palestinians.
The Observer article also accused
Damascus of continuing its offen-
sive even though the Palestinians
were willing to negotiate. It
warned against talks that did no
more than provide a screen to hide
continued attacks against the
leftist forces. The article also
cFiled on the Palestinians to ne-
gotiate in good faith.
There was no indication in the
statements that Moscow is consid-
ering any cutback in military as-
sistance to Damascus. Soviet arms
carriers continued to arrive at
Syrian ports during August and
September; the most recent deliv-
ery took place on October 4.
2
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
RHODESIA:
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* * *
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
A Soviet Y-class ballis-
tic missile submarine
conducted an unprece-
dented patrol last week
about 300 miles off the
California coast.
Guyanese Prime Minister
Burnham sharply criti-
cized the United States
in a major speech hon-
oring the victims of a
Cuban airliner crash.
NOTES
The USSR normally has two Y-
class units on patrol in the Pa-
cific, but they have never been
detected closer than about 700
nautical miles off the US west
coast. In general, they remain
900 to 1,000 nautical miles away
in a broad area stretching from
northwest of Hawaii to just south
of Alaska. About two years ago
one Y-class did approach within
300 miles of southern Alaska.
The reason for the recent close
approach to the US is unclear,
but it may have been to test US
antisubmarine detection capabil-
ities. A similar patrol was
made last year by a Y-class unit
off the US Atlantic coast.
Burnham stopped short of accusing
the United States of complicity
in the terrorist act that claimed
the lives of 11 Guyanese, but he
insinuated that the US government
was at least morally responsible
because of its support for Cuban
exile organizations.
The Prime Minister seemed to be
inviting demonstrations against
the US embassy when he warned that
"those who perpetrate violence must
now expect they will have violence
visited upon them." There is no
evidence, however, that the govern-
ment is planning a campaign of har-
assment or violence against the US
embassy or its personnel.
4
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Unrest within the
Ethiopian armed forces
has increased markedly
in recent weeks.
West German concern over
the state of the British
economy may lead West
Germany to make proposals
for long-term aid to the
UK.
The US defense attache has received
reports that noncommissioned offi-
cers of the Second Division in As-
mara, the capital of Eritrea Prov-
ince, late last week detained the
second vice chairman of the ruling
military council and a number of
senior officers. The council's
first vice chairman visited the
Third Division in eastern Ethiopia
also late last week to mediate a
dispute between opposing factions
within the units. Earlier this
month troops in western Eritrea
took control of their battalion
and detained their commander.
Specific military grievances have
contributed to the increased ten-
sions. The government's security
situation has deteriorated through-
out Ethiopia in recent weeks be-
cause of increased insurgent activ-
ity. New strains have been imposed
on the government's inadequate mil-
itary logistics system. The re-
sulting shortages of supplies and
ammunition have further weakened
morale and discipline.
Chancellor Schmidt, speaking the
day after his meeting on October
10 and 11 with Prime Minister Cal-
laghan, declared that Bonn must be
prepared to assist European neigh-
bors who find themselves in diffi-
cult financial circumstances.
5
--continued
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Norway announced yes-
terday that it is ex-
pelling the entire staff
of the North Korean em-
bassy in Oslo.
Schmidt believes short-term aid
on a small scale is not sufficient
and that larger, long-term help is
needed to solve Britain's economic
problems. The idea is to bridge
the gap between current problems
and the arrival of North Sea oil,
which will sharply increase govern-
ment revenues and reduce the UK's
chronic balance-of-payments deficit.
* * *
The announced reason for the ex-
pulsion is that the North Koreans
have been involved in black market
sales of liquor and tobacco. Nor-
way apparently does not intend to
break diplomatic relations.
Several days ago the Danish gov-
ernment requested that the North
Korean ambassador and his staff
be withdrawn from Copenhagen be-
cause of their involvement in
smuggling and selling narcotics,
liquor, and cigarettes. Sweden
may be the next Scandinavian
country to act against the North
Koreans; yesterday police in
Stockholm arrested three Swedes
for receiving illegally imported
goods from North Korean embassy
personnel.
6
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