THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 23 OCTOBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014935
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 23, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
October 23, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 23, 1975
Table of Contents
Portuqal: A demonstration in Lisbon this evening
is intended by its Communist and far-left spon-
sors to be a major challenge to the Azevedo
government. (Page 1)
Lebanon: There is no word on the fate of the two
USIA officers kidnaped yesterday in Beirut.
(Page 3)
Spain: Public and private accounts of the status
of General Franco's health are still at odds.
(Page 4)
Spanish Sahara: Spanish leaders are disagreeing
over the government's policy. Morocco is as-
sembling its marchers, and Algeria is talking
of a military response. (Page 5)
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PORTUGAL
A demonstration of "popular power"
in Lisbon this evening is being orches-
trated by its Communist and far-left
sponsors as a major challenge to the
Azevedo government.
Short of a complete government capitulation,
the present Communist and far-left campaign seems
bound to lead to bloodshed sooner or later. Since
the April 25, 1974 coup, each successive Portuguese
government has been reluctant to use force--probably
to avoid inevitable comparisons with the harsh
methods of the Salazar-Caetano era.
Many of Portugal's current leaders also believe
that the use of force against military and civilian
indiscipline would only make the sponsors of these
activities appear to be more powerful and influen-
tial than they are. There are obvious limitations
to this argument, and as time goes on the need to
restore order--and therefore risk a confrontation--
becomes more pressing.
The Communist-dominated trade union confedera-
tion, Intersindical, yesterday appealed for massive
participation in the demonstration, which it billed
as a protest against government efforts to turn
Portugal to the right. The confederation said gov-
ernment and military leaders were creating a situa-
tion reminiscent of that in Chile when "the people's
government" of Salvador Allende was overthrown.
The demonstration is expected to include the
same leftist front organizations that created vio-
lent incidents in Porto last week. No plans have
been announced for government security forces to
oppose or control the demonstration, even though
several Portuguese papers reported on Tuesday that
it might be used as a springboard for a leftist
coup attempt.
(continued)
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In another act of defiance against government
authority, thousands of left-wing soldiers and ci-
vilians yesterday seized control of the Catholic
radio transmitter outside Lisbon. The station,
which was wrested from church control by leftist
workers several months ago, was taken off the air
last month by Prime Minister Azevedo because of its
hard anti-government line. Demonstrators occupying
the transmitter site vowed to resume "revolutionary"
broadcasts.
The seizure probably was designed to complicate
President Costa Gomes' scheduled audience with Pope
Paul yesterday. The government's handling of the
church radio issue reportedly was one of the princi-
pal items on their agenda.
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LEBANON
The two USIA officers kidnaped in
Beirut yesterday are still missing.
There is no word on who abducted them
or what demands the kidnapers may make.
Lebanese Prime Minister Karami is
taking a personal hand in coordinat-
ing an intensive search for the two
US officials.
The fighting in Beirut persisted yesterday,
and kidnapings and roadblocks set up by private
militiamen are still common in all parts of the
city.
The political subcommittee of the national
dialogue committee met again yesterday, but neither
leftist leader Kamal Jumblatt nor Phalangist leader
Pierre Jumayyil attended. Jumblatt was still in
Damascus, and Jumayyil sent a deputy to the meeting.
Prime Minister Karami, in a speech to the Leb-
anese parliament on Tuesday, conceded his govern-
ment's inability to force the parties to accept a
settlement of the conflict and appealed to parlia-
ment to find a solution. The US embassy believes
the question of parliament's role will become a
major topic of discussion over the next few weeks.
Karami supports Interior Minister Shamun's
contention that the recommendations of the dialogue
committee must be endorsed by parliament as the
legally competent body. It remains highly unlikely,
however, that the divided and politically impotent
parliament will take the lead in ending the conflict.
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SPAIN
Public and private accounts on
the status of General Franco's health
are still at odds. Official state-
ments emphasize his recovery, while
private assessments dwell on the ir-
reversibility of the damage done to
his health.
The conflicting reports may be due to Franco's
apparent determination to resume normal activity
against the wishes of his doctors, who have warned
that doing so could be fatal. None of the opti-
mistic medical bulletins issued to date has been
signed by doctors, as was the case during Franco's
serious illness in 1974.
Prince Juan Carlos told Ambassador Stabler
yesterday that he believes the government should
make a determined effort at this Friday's Council
of Ministers meeting to persuade Franco to resign
so that Juan Carlos can succeed to the throne.
Many high officials in the government and
military fear a "power vacuum" in Spain at a time
when the Spanish Saharan problem has become crit-
ical and a wave of terrorism continues at home.
They would prefer that Franco step down now and,
if it becomes apparent that he will not recover
fully from his heart attack, they may well initiate
proceedings to have him declared incapacitated.
There is no evidence of unusual military prep-
arations in Madrid. The city is calm, life is
normal, and there is markedly less apparent unhappi-
ness among civilians and security forces over the
prospect of Franco's death than was the case in
1974. This does not reflect hostility toward
Franco, but rather a preoccupation with the prob-
lems that will survive him.
Madrid radio broadcasts, while playing down
the seriousness of Fanco's heart attacks, have re-
peatedly assured listeners that, in any case, in-
stitutions will survive and there is a "valid suc-
cessor" standing in the wings.
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SPANISH SAHARA
Since General Franco's latest ill-
ness, disagreements have surfaced among
Spanish leaders over the government's
policy toward the Spanish Sahara.
Prime Minister Arias reportedly favors ceding
the Sahara to Morocco in return for guarantees re-
garding Spanish interests in the territory. Other
officials, led by Foreign Minister Cortina, favor
granting self-determination to Spanish Sahara--a
solution that Algeria supports--but this faction
appears to be losing ground.
Arias sent Jose Solis Ruiz--a high cabinet official
in charge of Franco's political organization--to
see Moroccan King Hassan.
Spain would allow Saharan exiles living in Morocco
to participate in a referendum to determine the
Sahara's future, if the UN approved.
This dialogue may account for the optimistic
public remarks Solis made when he returned to Madrid
Madrid is committed to end the dis-
pute rapidly and is determined to do so.
Many pitfalls, however, remain. The UN may
not endorse the Spanish-Moroccan agreement, and
Arias is reluctant to act against UN rulings.
Morocco may renege on past offers to grant Spain
economic concessions.
Foreign Minister Cortina, meanwhile, has
threatened to resign over the Sahara issue, and
more trouble in the Spanish cabinet is possible at
a time when a unified leadership is critical to a
peaceful transition to the post-Franco period.
(continued)
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MILES
CANARY ISLANDS
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SP*AIN
Madrid
MOROCCO
El Aaion
SPANI H
SAHA( A
MAURITANIA
Nouakchott
SENEGAL
MALI
UPPER
VOLTA
NIGER
NIGERIA
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The Algerian Position
Algeria
will intervene militarily if
attack against Spanish Sahara.
Morocco launches an
Algerian officials have indicated they would
prefer a transition period in Sahara in which Spain
plays a major role, followed by a referendum offer?
ing a range of options from independence to union
with Morocco and Mauritania. The Algerians believe
that the Saharans would choose independence in any
fairly conducted referendum.
(continued)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Spanish forces in the Sahara, meanwhile, con-
tinue to improve their defenses along the border
with Morocco. Press sources indicate that Spain
is increasing the number of military obstacles--
including new minefields--to check any advances.
By doing so, Madrid apparently is signaling Rabat
that it intends to respond forcibly to any Moroccan
test of strength.
Moroccan Marchers
The movement of Moroccan volunteers toward as-
sembly points in southern Morocco is under
way. The first contingent is expected to be within
20 miles of the border with Spanish Sahara
Rabat has still not announced the timing of
the final leg of the march from the border to El
Aaiun
King Hassan will deliver a speech today directed
to the people of Spanish Sahara.
If the Moroccans do cross the border, clashes
could occur with Spanish forces or with armed ele-
ments of indigenous Saharan political groups that
want independence. The Spanish-backed Saharan Na-
tional Union Party and the Algerian-supported Poli-
sario Frontd will stage a counter-
march north to the border.
Both groups probably have been provided with
arms. Should either become involved in clashes
with the Moroccans, the 12,000 to 15,000 Moroccan
troops now in southern Morocco might well intervene.
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