THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 9 JANUARY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014999
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 9, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
January 9, 1976
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 511(1).(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Z'Op-; Approved for-keiease-2-01.6707714-:-Cii-RDP79T00936A013000010025-5
January 9, 1976
Table of Contents
China: The announcement of Premier Chou En-lai's
death appears to have been received calmly.
(Page 1)
USSR-Cuba-An.ola:.
Lebanon: No progress is being made in efforts to
negotiate an end to the heavy fighting in Bei-
rut. (Page 5)
Notes: Iceland; Thailand (Page 7)
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CHINA
The official announcement of the
death of Chinese Premier Chou En-Zai yes-
terday morning appears to have been re-
ceived calmly. Chou's long illness and
gradual withdrawal from affairs of state
had prepared the Chinese public for his
death. He will be succeeded as premier
by Teng Hsiao-ping, now China's first
vice premier, who has been fulfilling
most of Chou's former duties for well
over a year.
Chou's physical decline apparently began in
1972. The 10th party congress, which met in August
1973, probably was convened partly to work out ar-
rangements for his eventual replacement. Some in-
dications of his illness were publicized two years
ago; Chou entered a hospital in June of 1974,
emerging briefly on only two occasions. He probably
entered the terminal phase of his illness--now offi-
cially confirmed to have been cancer--in September
1975, when he ceased to receive visitors even in
his hospital suite.
The formal transition to the post-Chou era
should be relatively painless. No immediate policy
changes as a result of the premier's demise are
likely. Indeed, the Chinese can probably count as
one of their major successes of the past year and
a half their management of the transition.
In addition to carrying out his formal duties
as Chou's stand-in, Teng Hsiao-ping has, over the
past year, moved vigorously to consolidate his au-
thority over the state, party and army bureaucra-
cies. Teng, however, lacks the overwhelming pres-
tige and even affection accorded Chou by the Chinese
public and by many officials of the regime.
As one of the most prominent victims of the
Cultural Revolution, Teng's past record is at least
somewhat vulnerable. His gradual assumption of
power over the past three years has undoubtedly
been resented by party members closely associated
(continued)
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with the policies of the Cultural Revolution. This
resentment is unlikely to abate fully any time soon.
Teng appears to retain the confidence of Mao Tse-
tung, who a year ago was reported to have called
the vice premier a man of extraordinary political
insight.
Teng almost certainly lacks the broad vision
as well as the depth of varied experience possessed
by Chou, who had remained uninterruptedly at the
highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party since
its founding in 1921--a record that even surpasses
that of Mao himself. Although Teng has a well-
deserved reputation as an efficient administrator,
he does not seem to possess to the same degree
Chou's talents for conciliation and compromise.
Chou undoubtedly played an important advisory
role in the decision-making process until the ter-
minal phase of his illness incapacitated him last
autumn. The absence of his advice and experience
are likely to have a subtle effect, over the long
term, on the shape and flexibility of Chinese pol-
icies, both domestic and foreign. Although Teng
Hsiao-ping appears to accept fully the rationale
that led to Peking's partial rapprochement with
Washington, Chou was one of the two men who ini-
tiated the policy and whose prestige was deeply
bound up with its success.
Chou's demise emphasizes the age and uncertain
health of other top leaders of the Chinese regime,
particularly that of Mao himself, who turned 82
two weeks ago and who is obviously frail. Chou is
the second party vice chairman to die in less than
a month and the third member of the Politburo stand-
ing committee to die in less than a year.
Chou's death also highlights the fact that
China has now moved well into the transition toward
a new generation of leaders. Peking may soon find
it necessary to reconstitute the party's top lead-
ership by moving up several second-rank figures.
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US S R?CUBA?ANGOLA
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The National Front, which has been
losing ground in the northern battle
zone to the Popular Movement, has begun
evacuating its troops from Ambriz
Some troops have been airlifted to Ambrizete,
Before evacuation began, there was a total
of some 1,700 troops at Ambriz.
In the west central sector, where the South
Africans and mercenaries have been supporting
forces of the National Front and the National Union,
heavy fighting is taking place around Quibala,
Gabela, and Mussende, according to South African
press reports. Action along this front has picked
up within the past few days as Popular Movement
troops have moved out from their stronghold at Qui-
bala after fending off an attack by the allied
group.
Clashes between elements of the National Front
forces and their "allies," National Union troops,
have intensified in central and southern An ola
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Beirut, Lebanon
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LEBANON
No progress is being made in efforts
to negotiate an end to the heavy fighting
in Beirut. The cabinet and parliament
have been unable to meet this week, and
the Palestinians and Lebanese Muslims are
boycotting meetings of the "higher coor-
dination committee" to protest the Chris-
tian blockade of two Palestinian refugee
camps.
An unofficial 'meting of the coordination
committee--the extra-governmental body that has
regularly brought leaders of the warring factions
together--was held late Wednesday night, but failed
to act on cease-fire proposals put forward by a
liberal Christian cabinet member. Neither the
right-wing Christians nor the Palestinians showed
any signs of willingness to compromise.
In fact, some units of the government's in-
ternal security force and the Lebanese army have
been drawn into the fighting, partly against their
will.
Christians in the government are pushing for
greater use of the army, but as usual this is
being resisted by Karami. Even if the army were
brought in, it could not redress the imbalance be-
ing created by the growing Palestinian involvement.
According to press reports, the Palestinian news
agency has for the first time acknowledged that a
"broad spectrum" of Palestinian forces is involved
in the fighting.
(continued)
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Our embassy reports that on Wednesday a force
of some 1,200 Palestinians and leftists was attempt-
ing to open a road into two refugee camps by attack-
ing nearby Christian areas. The embassy believes
that the large Palestinian units were still being
held back at that time.
Lebanese army and security forces suffered
casualties in one of the clashes, but appear to
be attempting only to keep the private militias
apart. We cannot confirm Palestinian charges that
government forces are fighting on the side of the
Christians. The Christians admit to losing some
ground, however, and government units may have at-
tempted to stand in the way of the Palestinian ad-
vance.
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NOTES
Iceland yesterday demanded a special NATO
meeting to consider its grievances against the UK
because of another ramming incident.
The government announced that the Director
General of the Icelandic Foreign Ministry will visit
all NATO capitals to present Reykjavik's case. Ice-
landic ambassadors to the US, Canada, and the UN are
to be called home for consultations. The government
also intends to invite NATO Secretary General Luns
to Reykjavik for discussions. Meanwhile, former
Icelandic prime minister Johannesson has said he
wants to meet with the US ambassador in Reykjavik
shortly to discuss possible contingency plans to
retain the US-manned NATO base at Keflavik if Ice-
land should withdraw from the alliance.
Thai Prime Minister Khukrit announced the
formation of a new cabinet yesterday.
Two parties crucial to the coalition's sur-
vival were given additional cabinet seats, and the
opposition Social Agrarian Party was brought into
the coalition. While the new cabinet expands the
role of the conservative parties, it will not end
Khukrit's problems with the political right.
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The opposition may try to introduce a
motion of no-confidence next week, although few of
them believe such a move would have much of a chance
of success at this time.
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Top Secret
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