THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 20 JANUARY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015008
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 20, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
(
January 20, 1976
2
Top Secre,?5x1
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Exempt from general
declassification .hedole of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 580 L(2).(3)
declassified ?nig on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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January 20, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: Prime Minister Karami has agreed to re-
consider his decision to resign. (Page 1)
USSR: There has been little change since yester-
day in the position of Soviet naval units in
the western Mediterranean and off the west
coast of Africa. (Page 2)
USSR
Spain: Spanish leftists will demonstrate in Madrid
today in a bid to politicize labor unrest and
test the government's willingness to tolerate
dissent. (Page 4)
Notes: Arabs-UN; USSR (Page 5)
At Annex
orating situation in Lebanon.
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the deteri- 25X1
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111:11.117,?IT
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MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
BEIRUT
c?
,ocCote'
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11
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vv.4,4
ISRAEL
I Golan
11 Heights
Damascus
SYRIA
0
20
Miles
559137 1-76
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LEBANON
Prime Minister Karami has agreed to
reconsider his decision to resign as a
result of a cease-fire arranged yester-
day by President Franjiyah and Syrian
President Asad. Franjiyah--presumably
under heavy pressure from the Syrians--
had refused to accept the Prime Minis-
ter's resignation.
Karami is now in a position to reassert him-
self in political negotiations that have recently
been conducted almost exclusively between Franjiyah
and the Syrians. Although Karami's announcement
has eased concern--at least temporarily--that re-
maining government authority might collapse, there
are as yet no signs that the warring factions have
accepted the cease-fire. Franjiyah and Asad prob-
ably agreed to give each other considerable time to
implement the accord, which apparently is only the
broadest outline of a truce.
Franjiyah's chances of gaining Christian ac-
ceptance of the accord are slim. Christian mili-
tias have gained considerable momentum over the
last week, and apparently are preparing for new
advances on Muslim areas in Beirut. Phalangist
forces yesterday took over most of Quarantina, a
Muslim slum near the port area. They also secured
two bridges across the Beirut River which open up
their supply lines to the north.
Fighting continued near Damour south of the
capital, around Zahlah to the east, and in Tripoli,
the northern provincial capital.
We have no evidence, however, to substan-
tiate widely publicized claims by Interior Minis-
ter Shamun that thousands of Palestinian troops
crossed into Lebanon yesterday.
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Gulf of Cadiz
? ?
/
Deka
Conakry
Ivory
Coas
Abidjan
Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Guinea
?
500 10p0 Miles
500 10'00 Kilometers
?
Pointe Noire
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USSR
There has been little change since
yesterday in the position of Soviet naval
units in the western Mediterranean and
off the west coast of Africa.
The Kashin-class destroyer that followed the
USS Saratoga carrier group into the Mediterranean
early on Monday is now located outside the Spanish
port of Malaga, where the Saratoga is paying a port
visit. The Sverdlov-class cruiser and two F-class
submarines are still in the Alboran anchorage.
Off the African coast, an Alligator-class land-
ing ship is still south of the Ivory Coast. The
naval oiler that was accompanying the landing ship
may now be heading back to Conakry.
The Kresta-II guided missile cruiser, Kotlin-
class destroyer, and two oilers remain in or near
Conakry.
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USSR
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SPAIN
Spanish leftists will demonstrate in
Madrid today in a bid to politicize labor
unrest and test the government's willing-
ness to tolerate dissent.
The two major coalitions of the leftist oppo-
sition who called for the rally--the Communist-
dominated Democratic Junta and the Socialist-led
Platform of Democratic Convergence--apparently hope
to join forces with those workers now on strike to
press demands for:
--a national referendum on the country's form
of government,
--amnesty for all political prisoners,
--return of political exiles, and
--recognition of the rights of ethnic groups
such as the Basques and Catalans.
So far,
Fraga's security forces have relied primarily on
tear gas and smoke bombs to disperse crowds.
Rail services in Spain quickly returned to
normal yesterday after the government drafted all
railway personnel, making them liable to military
discipline if they refused to return to work./
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NOTES
After considerable squabbling between Egypt
and Syria, the Arabs have tentatively agreed on a
draft resolution on the Palestinian question for
consideration by the UN Security Council.
The text essentially calls on the Security
Council to recognize: the inalienable rights of
the Palestinians to self-determination, political
independence and statehood in Palestine; the right
of Palestine refugees to return to their former
homes or obtain compensation for their property;
and that Palestinian representatives must partici-
pate in any UN effort to establish peace in the
region. By omitting any direct reference to the
Palestine Liberation Organization, the Arabs, even
though they do not believe they can avoid a US
veto, are hoping to win the support of West Euro-
pean council members and isolate Washington.
The pace of the Soviet submarine construction
program is such that 51 ICBM launchers must be
fully dismantled by the end of February to meet
requirements of the Interim Strategic Arms Limita-
tion Agreement.
Photography shows that the Soviets had dis-
mantled eight older ICBM launchers by early Janu-
ary, one more than required by that date. Cur-
rently 34 more above-ground SS-7s are being dis-
mantled, and photography taken in December shows
activity that is probably preliminary to the dis-
mantling of at least nine additional SS-7 silos
at three complexes in the eastern USSR.
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LEBANON
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The fighting in Lebanon has taken an ominous
turn with the growing involvement in recent days
of the Lebanese army and mainline Palestinian
forces behind the Christian and Muslim Lebanese
respectively. The escalation has occurred against
the background of demographic shifts already lead-
ing towards de facto partition. The fighting will
continue to escalate--albeit with temporary lulls--
unless (a) there is a fundamental change in strat-
egy by one of the factions, or (b) outsiders in-
tervene politically to achieve a cease-fire and to
force negotiations bn a political settlement of
the fundamental issues dividing the major factions.
In the absence of a durable cease-fire and
with the continuation of heavy fighting, the situ-
ation is likely to develop in one of several ways.
Intensified Fighting and Fruitless Nego-
tiating. Alternate periods of fighting and
of guarded negotiating are almost certain to
continue. This process is leading toward an
all-out confrontation between the Lebanese
armed forces and the Palestinians. This would
differ from full-fledged civil war only in
terms of the restraints that would continue
to exist and in the political negotiating mech-
anisms that might still survive.
Full-fledged Civil War. The last ves-
tiges of central authority would collapse,
and the political leaders would abandon their
feeble negotiating efforts. Civil war would
lead to intense efforts by Damascus to force
President Franjiyah to accept a settlement
that would give political concessions to the
Muslims and confirm Palestinian freedom of
action in Lebanon. The Christians, however,
would seek to accelerate partition of the
country.
(continued)
Al
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New Christian Moves. Only if the Chris-
tians conclude that they face major setbacks
as a result of military reverses or inability
to secure arms, would they adjust their strat-
egy in recognition of their weaknesses. This
could include a new willingness to negotiate,
the resignation of President Franjiyah, or a
military coup.
Outside Mediation. To have any chance of
success, outside mediation would have to fea-
ture Syria. Prospects even then would be
poor. As long as the Christians believe, as
they now seem to believe, that they can hold
their own militarily, they would not be recep-
tive to mediation efforts, except as a tacti-
cal maneuver.
We consider that Syria and Israel are both
exercising deliberate caution in their approach to
the Lebanese problem. Although there is a possi-
bility of miscalculation, it is unlikely that Syria
or Israel will misjudge one another's intentions in
Lebanon and accidentally spark general hostilities
in the Middle East. We believe that Syrian regular
forces are unlikely to intervene short of a radical
change in the situation, such as an imminent defeat
of the Palestinians or an Israeli occupation of
southern Lebanon. The Israelis might be willing to
hold back if the Syrians announced a limited incur-
sion into the Beirut area or northern Lebanon, but
would react immediately if Syrian troops entered
the south. There is a good chance that wider hos-
tilities in the Middle East would grow out of any
direct clash between Syrian and Israeli forces.
Egypt is expressing growing concern over de-
velopments in Lebanon, and may undertake some vig-
orous mediation efforts.1
The Soviets are also showing concern over
events in Lebanon. We consider that they would
be likely to resupply the Palestinians through
Syria if the fighting escalates, but would try
to prevent the spread of fighting beyond Lebanon
and to avoid direct intervention themselves.
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