THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 19 JULY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015167
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: July 19, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
July 19, 1976
2
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 513( I
declassified only; on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR 1HL FELJ.IDL1V 1 U1VL I
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July 19, 1976
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Table of Contents
USSR-Syria:
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Lebanon: The Palestinians are still refusing to negotiate with
the Syrians until Damascus withdraws its troops from cen-
tral and southern Lebanon. Military activity was relatively
light over the weekend. (Page 3)
Notes: Egypt; French Territory of the Afars and Issas; USSR;
Ethiopia; China (Pages 5, 6, and 7)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR 111E FRE5'IDEN1' U1VL Y
USSR-SYRIA:
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AnANTIC .
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PORT
SPAIN
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EGYPT
ISRAEL
620088 7-76
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT UNL Y
LEBANON: Palestinian
leaders this weekend
reiterated that they
will not negotiate
with Damascus until
the Syrians honor
their agreement to
withdraw their troops
from southern and cen-
tral Lebanon.
The Palestinians' intransigence
appears to have set the stage for
Christian and Syrian troops to fol-
low through with a new coordinated
military plan that was mapped out
last week. The Christian delega-
tion that went to Damascus last
week to draw up the plan reportedly
received final approval from Chris-
tian leaders over the weekend and
returned immediately to Syria to
ask that the plan be implemented
this week.
The plan reportedly calls for the
Christians to open the road to
Zahlah and to expand their control
of east Beirut, while the Syrians
tighten their blockade of Palestin-
ian and leftist strongholds in the
north. The Syrians also would in-
terdict access routes to central
Lebanon leading to leftist-con-
trolled territory south of Beirut.
The plan then proposes a joint ad-
vance on west Beirut. US offi-
cials in the capital believe, how-
ever, that this attack would only
involve an attempt to gain control
of the hotel district and to es-
tablish a narrow corridor along
Beirut's northern coastal perimeter.
3
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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- Beirut, Lebanon
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620092 7-76
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The announcement of the
US evacuation--coupled
with the collapse of
mediation efforts and
fears of new Syrian
military moves--has
prompted widespread
rumors that a major at-
tack on west Beirut
will coincide with the
evacuation. We have
no evidence, however,
that either the Syrians
or the Christians are
planning. any action
that would directly
jeopardize the evacua-
tion.
Military activity re-
mained light in most
of the country over the
weekend.
Most of the rumors stem from an
article published over the weekend
in a pro-leftist Beirut newspaper
alleging that the Syrians and the
Christians--with the US Sixth
Fleet providing a barrier to So-
viet intervention--plan to launch
a final attack on the Palestinians
and leftists tomorrow, just after
the US evacuation is completed.
In an apparent show of concern for
the safety of US and other foreign
nationals, the official Palestin-
ian news agency yesterday denied
allegations of US involvement.
Nonetheless, the rumors probably
are generally accepted by undis-
ciplined Lebanese and Palestinian
radicals, who pose the greatest
threat to the evacuees.
Fighting continued around Tall
Zatar refugee camp yesterday, but
there was relatively little action
along the other major confrontation
lines in Beirut. The Palestinians
reportedly expect the Christians
to try to silence the artillery
fire coming from Sabra refugee
camp, which is just north of the
airport and close to the main
highway.
In central Lebanon, there are in-
dications that the Syrians are al-
ready carrying oyt their part of
the new military lan. Unconfirmed
press reports claim the Syrians
may have even moved more forces
across the border to reinforce
their positions along the Beirut-
Damascus highway. The Syrians ap-
parently have dropped all pretense
of carrying out their pledge to
withdraw from Sawfar.
4
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?
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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The Horn of Africa
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620090 7.76
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FOR THE PRESIDEIVT ONLY
Egypt is receiving some
badly needed economic
assistance from other
Arab states.
The resignation on Sat-
urday of Ali Aref Bour-
han, the Afar president
of the local government
in the French Territory
of the Afars and Issas,
opens the way for the
creation of a broad-
based coalition in Dji-
bouti.
NOTES
Finance ministers from Saudi Ara-
bia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United
Arab Emirates met in Cairo Satur-
day and agreed to a draft proposal
for a Saudi-sponsored fund of $2
billion over the next five years
to bolster Egypt's economy. Egypt
reportedly will not be allowed to
draw at will from the fund, but
will be able to borrow elsewhere,
using the fund as collateral, to
meet its immediate foreign ex-
change needs. Cairo has only
enough foreign exchange on hand
to finance two weeks' imports.
Without immediate aid, Egypt will
have to rely heavily on high-cost,
short-term loans.
The finance ministers apparently
approved the new aid fund in dis-
regard of Egypt's postponing eco-
nomic reforms recommended by the
International Monetary Fund as a
condition for IMF support for
other international borrowing.
Aref opposed the agreement that
the French recently worked out
among the three major political
groups in the FTAI. The agreement
will give a greater political role
to the Issas and other ethnic So-
malis who constitute a majority of
the population.
In Aref's view, Issa domination is
the first step to the annexation
of the territory by Somalia. The
French, however, are betting that
stability is more likely to pre-
vail in the pre- and post-indepen-
dence period if the government is
dominated by Issas. A referendum
on independence probably will be
held next March.
5
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The Kiev, the first unit
of a new class of So-
viet aircraft carrier,
entered the Mediterra-
nean yesterday on its
first operational voy-
age.
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This trip probably is a show-the-
flag mission, possibly related to
the situation in Lebanon. If it
follows the pattern set by the
helicopter carrier Moskva on its
first voyage, the Kiev will oper-
ate in the Mediterranean for about
six weeks.
The Kiev is equipped to carry
short take-off aircraft and heli-
copters, and has a variety of
anti-submarine sensors and weapons.
Two anti-submarine warfare heli-
copters are now on the deck of the
Kiev. The ship has short- and
long-range anti-submarine rocket
launchers and possibly torpedos.
It also has surface-to-air missiles
and probably an anti-ship missile
system.
The Kiev-class will be no military
match for US attack carriers, but
this fact could be lost on all but
the most sophisticated observers
in the third world.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
In China, the deteriora-
tion of Chairman Mao's
physical condition ap-
parently has brought
the People's Liberation
Army closer to the po-
litical center stage.
The radicals and moderates both
recognize that the military estab-
lishment can exert considerable,
if not decisive, influence on the
outcome of the current infighting.
The deeper the PLA's involvement,
however, the more likely it is that
military factionalism will grow
within its own ranks. Military men
may eventually emerge with a larger25X1
voice in China's political process.
many in the PLA--in- 25X1
cluding PLA leaders in the prov-
inces--appear to be unenthusiastic
about the radicals.
The radicals' best prospect for
support probably is among officers
in the military regions and dis-
tricts whose careers have suffered
as a result of efforts by moder-
ates to separate them from in-
volvement in local civilian af-
fairs.
7
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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Top Secret
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