THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 13 OCTOBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992916
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 13, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
13 October 1971
. 47
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
13 October 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
Yahya Khan has said he will not initiate hostilities
with India and would welcome a mutual withdrawal of
forces from the West Pakistani border. (Page 1)
Soviet planes based in Egypt have conducted a recon-
naissance mission that flew within 20 miles of Tel
Aviv. (Page 2)
The Soviets have destroyed their Salyut space station
by bringing it into the earth's atmosphere, where it
burned. (Page 3)
In Laos, the North Vietnamese are increasing their
pressures against government units on the Bolovens
Plateau. (Page 4)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
PAKISTAN-INDIA
President Yahya has responded positively to US
proposals for reducing the chances of war with India.
He reaffirmed to the American charge' on Monday that
Pakistan would not initiate hostilities and welcomed
the idea of a mutual withdrawal of forces along the
West wing's border with India. He denied that there
had been serious skirmishing along this frontier.
After brief consideration, he said that perhaps the
chiefs of staff of the two armies could work, out mo-
dalities for withdrawal since that forum had been used
in the past.
? As for the East, however, Yahya foresaw major
problems. The 70,000-man army contingent there has
few accommodations to which it could fall back away
from the border, where it has taken over the duties
of paramilitary forces that deserted to the insur-
gents last spring. Yahya made no promises, but
agreed to consider replacing the army troops along
the border with paramilitary forces formed since the
fighting began. Yahya denied that Pakistan was con-
templating military retaliation against India be-
cause of its support of the cross-border operations
of the Mukti Bahini guerrillas, and was delighted
with the chargg's assertion that the US intended to
press India to restrict such operations.
Yahya's gratification about this last
point no doubt is real. There have been
14,000 guerrillas in the field since sum-
mer, and the Indians have been training
large numbers of reinforcements that are
to go into action in East Pakistan this
month. It is not likely that Yahya would
pull his army from positions blocking the
entry of such guerrillas until he was sure
that the threat they posed was past.
Yahya, however, no doubt sees the utility
of US pressure against India's support of
the guerrilla operations, even though he
may not have much confidence that the
Indians will agree to restrict their ac-
tivities.
We have little doubt that at this time the
Indians will reject the idea of restricting
the operations of the Mukti Bahini. They
might hesitate, however, to reject outright
the proposal for a mutual withdrawal of
forces from the Western border, because it
has obvious advantages for them as well as
for the Pakistanis.
In the light of the US suggestion on pull-
ing back troops, Yahya apparently intends
to shelve his own proposal for UN Security
Council action.
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CYPRUS
Israeli-controlled areas following
June 1967 hostilities
Beirut*
LEBANON
Haifa
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Dead
Sea
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Cairo West Cairo
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Suez
Canal
EgypI.
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recoriniiissance
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SINAI
PENINSULA
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Ras Zafarinah
Asyut ?
'Sharm ash-
Shaykh
Israeli
Hurghada. reconnaissance
Red
Sea ?
SAUDI
A-RABIA
32
50
MILES
36
28-
55197810-71 CIA
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR-ISRAEL-EGYPT
at least two Soviet-
piloted Foxbat aircraft flew over the Mediterranean
to within 20 miles of Tel Aviv on 10 October. They
followed the coastline back to Port Said, where they.
re-entered Egypt. Only one aircraft entered
controlled airspace for a brief period.
These unprecedented Soviet flights are
meant to suggest an expanded Soviet role
on Egypt's behalf and to remind the Is-
raelis that they are no? less subject to
airborne reconnaissance than is Egypt.
Since the start of the cease-fire, the
Israelis have occasionally flown recon-
naissance flights over the Mediterranean
parallel to the Egyptian coast. It is
likely that the Soviet activity had the
approval of both Moscow and Cairo. In
view of President Sadat's departure for
the USSR on 10 October, the Soviets may
have wanted to remind Cairo that their
support for the Arab cause had not waned.
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USSR
The Salyut space station launched last April
burned up on re-entering the earth's atmosphere on
11 October. The Soviets apparently fired its en-
gines to alter its course, thus guaranteeing this
result, since the station was not designed for re-
entry.
Salyut was involved in two manned space
operations, Soyuz 10 and Soyuz 11. The
Soyuz 10 mission aborted because it was
unable to complete docking with Salyut,
but the Soyuz 11 cosmonauts spent about
three weeks aboard the station before
their ill-fated return to earth. Since
the completion of the Soyuz 11 mission,
the Soviets had maneuvered the spacecraft
into a higher orbit four times. The ef-
fect of these maneuvers was to extend the
station's life, suggesting that Salyut
would be involved in additional manned
space operations. However, its orbit was
lowered late last month.
There are several possible reasons why
the Soviets decided to destroy the $250
million-dollar space station. The elec-
trical fire aboard Salyut during the Soyuz
11 mission possibly damaged the spacecraft;
however, this was not serious enough at
the time to terminate that operation.
Some system aboard Salyut may have failed
recently, or the Soviets may have finally
completed experiments carried on the sta-
tion. The Soviets also may have discovered
something in their investigation of the
Soyuz 11 incident which caused them to
end the Salyut operation.
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LAOS: Bo!ovens Plateau Area
CHINA
BURMA
an Lao'
gam
Bon ? Irreg ars attacked
^
?Kik
Ban Houei
2
Paksong ong
Bolovfns
)vStung Trerg
fT?
25 50 miles
551976 10-71 CIA
0 Communist-held location
0 Government-held location
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LAOS
The. North Vietnamese are gradually increasing
their pressure neat Paksong on the Bolovens Plateau
Government units have been unable to clear the area
northwest of the town. Nine miles to the north, a
four-battalion task force was hit hard yesterday and
forced to retreat. The number of enemy mortar at-
tacks and probes has increased, and Communist fire
on landing strips has caused the government to re-
sort to airdrops for supplies.
The recent withdrawal of several irregular bat-
talions from the Bolovens area has increased the
government's vulnerability.. Many of -the? units that
remain 'are understrength or fresh from training.
The North Vietnamese recently moved ele-
ments of one, battalion from the north and
two from the east toward the.central Boio-
vens It is not clear, however, whether
these units are to reinforce ,or replace
the .9th NVA Regiment, which we believe suf-
fered heavy casualties during its unsuc-
cessful defense of Paksong last month.
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NOTES
USSR-Caribbean:. A six-ship Soviet naval force
apparently is- headed for the Caribbean. Four anti-
submarineships:and two tankers were some 1,000.
miles west.of Morocco yesterday after leaving-the
Mediterranean four days earlier. Although no-sub-
marines are known to be accompanying the surface
ships, two cruise missile nuclear units which are
in_North Atlantic waters could rendezvous with them
for the expected Caribbean operations, This would
be the largest Soviet.naval task force to visit the
area, and the first since last June.:
5
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Top Secret
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