THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 22 APRIL 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015089
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: April 22, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010020-7
The President's Daily Brief
April 22, 1976
2
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of EO. 11652
exemption category,. 51fi I
declassified onfii on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010020-7
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013300010020-7
I ' L/.1?. 1 II1_, .1..1-0 ? N. A 1.../ l V 1-1
April 22, 1976
Table of Contents
25X1
Lebanon:
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(Page 1) 25X1
Portugal: Voters go to the polls on Sunday to select their first
freely elected parliament in half a century. (Page 2)
Iraq-Syria: Iraq cut off oil to Syria on April 9, forcing Damas-
cus to seek crude elsewhere. (Page 4)
Notes: USSR; Thailand; Angola (Page 6)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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' .1 V .1 11 Li I .1%. Li i-1.1 L'Li1 VA V.LV A-I A
LEBANON:
1
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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r vix 1 .111.i .L IVLdki .11? ,L.i.LV LI.LV A./ A
PORTUGAL: Portuguese
voters go to the polls
on Sunday--the second
anniversary of the over-
throw of the Caetano
regime--to select their
first freely elected
parliament in half a
century.
25X1
The pronounced shift away from the
left since last summer augers well
for the center and center-right
parties. The fact that a demo-
cratic election is being held at
all is due in large measure to the
persistent opposition of Mario
Soares and other Socialist lead-
ers to former prime minister Vasco
Goncalves and his Communist sup-
porters. The irony is that the
conservative backlash, which the
Socialists by their criticism of
the Communists helped to trigger,
will cut into the Socialists' own
vote totals.
Opinion polls indicate that the
Socialists will receive 30 to 35
percent of the vote, the Popular
Democrats 28 to 35 percent, the
Social Democratic Center 18 to 25
percent, and the Communists 8 to
12 percent.
Should the Socialists win anywhere
near the 40 percent they are seek-
ing, they probably will try to
form a government with support
from independents.
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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(...././x. I AIL A V A v A_J
The most likely outcome of the
election is a coalition government
comprising the Socialists and one
or both parties to their right,
although the Socialists have dis-
avowed any interest in combining
with either the right or the Com-
munists.
Even though the Popular Democrats
and the Social Democratic Center
could win a majority of the assem-
bly seats, a two-party center-
right coalition with no labor cre-
dentials would lack stability.
If the effort to form a workable
coalition is prolonged, calls for
a national unity government that
would include the Communists are
likely to be heard. The vital im-
portance of labor peace also may
be advanced as an argument for
Communist participation.
Whatever the outcome of the assem-
bly election, the new president--
who will be elected in late June--
will play an important role in
forming the government. The pres-
ent head of state, Costa Gomes,
Prime Minister Azevedo, and Army
Chief of Staff General Eanes, ap-
pear to be fading from contention.
Northern military region commander
P1 res Veloso has emerged as the
military front-runner. Recent
statements by the general indicate
that as president he would adopt
a hard line against leftist manip-
ulation of the labor sector.
The two-month interregnum between
elections could see various at-
tempts to disrupt the relative
stability Portugal has enjoyed
since November. A poor showing by
the Communists, coupled with their
probable exclusion from the govern-
ment, could prompt them to take
--continued
3
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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N. //L., A IX A-I 1.-) 1 A., A- I.LV I V1V A-I A
IRAQ-SYRIA: Iraq cut
off oil to Syria on
April 9, forcing Damas-
cus to seek crude else-
where.
some rash action, including an at-
tempt, in collusion with leftist
military officers, to have the
election results suspended.
The transit pipeline agreement
under which Syria had been buying
50,000 barrels per day of Iraqi
crude expired last December. Dif-
ferences over the price of Iraqi
oil and Syrian transit fees have
prevented the two governments from
concluding a new agreement.
Syria depends exclusively on Iraq
for light crude and will also lose
transit fee earnings which pro-
vided significant foreign exchange.
Damascus could meet its refining
requirements by purchasing light
crude from other suppliers at world
market prices--which are consider-
ably higher than the price paid
Iraq under the former agreement.
The Iraqi decision to cut off the
oil flow may have followed Syrian
efforts to take more oil from the
pipeline than allowed under the old
agreement. The move may also have
been timed to obstruct Syria's
most recent efforts to resolve the
Lebanese crisis. The Iraqis have
supplied fedayeen 25X1
radicals in an effort to undercut
Syrian mediation efforts in Lebanon
and have been vocal in their criti-
cism of recent Damascus policies.
The two rival Baathist governments
have been bickering more or less
openly since last spring when Da-
mascus cut off water to Iraq from
the Euphrates River for allegedly
meddling in Syria's internal af-
fairs. If Syria wanted to exert
4
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1-//X 1 11 L I .1?.1., LI .1 V .1 V I V L.i .1
pressure on Iraq to resume oil
shipments, withholding water would
be the most obvious and effective
way of doing so. There is no in-
dication so far that Damascus has
taken that action.
5
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ufix. v I .1
The Soviets apparently
are preparing to orbit
a military version of
the Salyut space sta-
tion, probably within
the next two months.
The formation of the
new Thai government is
proceeding on schedule
with yesterday's royal
decree appointing the
new cabinet under Prime
Minister Seni.
Small groups of armed
National Front person-
nel are still active in
northeastern Angola.
NOTES
A major goal of the Soviet manned
space program is to develop and
use long-term military space sta-
tions. They probably will man the
space station for at least one 90-
day period. This would break the
manned space station record of 84
days established by the US with
Skylab 3 in 1974. The Soviets con-
ducted a successful 91-day unmanned
qualification flight with Soyuz 20
and Salyut 4 between November 17,
1975, and February 16, 1976.
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Zairian President Mobutu allows
the Front to maintain an under-
ground headquarters in Zaire, but
he does not appear to be providing
assistance. Sporadic low-level
skirmishing is likely to continue
for some time.
6
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Top Secret
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