THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 26 FEBRUARY 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007684
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 26, 1974

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A012000010019-3
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The President's Daily Brief
February 26, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B(11.f 21,13)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
ILLEGIB
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
February 26, 1974
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
India and Iran have concluded a major trade agree-
ment. (Page 1)
The Thai Army is prepared to take stern measures if
student agitation should get out of hand. (Page 2)
There are signs of renewed political friction in
Phnom Penh. (Page 3)
Notes on Iraq-USSR, the USSR, Libya - Eastern Europe,
and Romania appear on Page 4.
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INDIA-IRAN
India and Iran have concluded a major trade
agreement that, will go
a long way toward ensuring that India's oil require-
ments are met. In return, India will supply cement,
steel products, rail cars, machinery, and fishing
trawlers.
India will also receive two credits totaling
$370 million to expand iron ore mining operations
and alumina production. When these projects are com-
pleted, India will supply Iran with 2.5 million tons
of ore pellets and 100,000 tons of alumina per year
for 20 years.
Neither the amount of crude oil involved nor the
credit terms for the loans were made public. Although
Iran's Minister of Economy claims that the agreement
did not involve any "concessionary" price for oil,
the cost probably will be well below the posted price.
Iran already supplies 60-65 percent of India's crude
imports.
Iran also agreed to help finance an expansion
of India's refinery at Madras from an annual capacity
of 2.8 million to 3.5 million tons. The refinery
is owned jointly by the Indian Government, National
Iranian Oil, and American International Oil.
In addition, India's balance-of-payments problem
will be considerably eased because India will be
allowed to pay part of its oil import bill with fu-
ture exports to Iran. By providing 65,000 tons of
steel and 300,000 tons of cement to Iran, however,
India could intensify its already critical domestic
shortages of both products.
From the Shah's standpoint, the deal with India
has a number of attractive features. In the short
run, it will provide Iran with some badly needed in-
dustrial goods and reinforce Tehran's interests in
foreign refining operations. Over the longer term,
it will give Iran an important source of supply for
its ambitious steel and aluminum output plans. These
plans call for Iran to be a substantial exporter of
steel and aluminum products--a goal which could bring
Tehran into competition with New Delhi in years to
come.
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THAILAND
Army chief Krit Sawara recently told key troop
commanders in the Bangkok area to be ready to move
quickly and decisively should disorder again break
out. Although he did not amplify his order, Krit
most likely is thinking in terms of arresting se-
lected student activists. During violent student
demonstrations last January, the government relied
on the police force to handle the situation and the
army was not called on.
King Phumiphon apparently has quietly given his
approval to the military to quell any sizable student-
inspired disorder. the King is
having second thoughts about his support of the
student movement, in light of some of the "radical"
views now expressed by several student leaders.
Despite some concern in Bangkok that the army
may take advantage of the situation, there is no
evidence that it would use a move against the stu-
dents as a pretext to oust the civilian government.
Strong measures to restrict student political activ-
ity, however, could lead to a confrontation between
the army and the students. Army sensitivities are
running particularly high because of student charges
that army units recently burned down a village sus-
pected of harboring Communist sympathizers in north-
east Thailand.(
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CAMBODIA
Republican Party chief Sink Matak recently
stated privately that he and his followers can no
longer continue to work with President Lon Nol and
members of his Socio-Republican Party. According
to Matak, Lon Nol has "sabotaged" every attempt by
the Republicans to help lead the country. Several
Republican cabinet ministers have echoed Matak's
criticism, but Prime Minister Long Boret has persuaded
them to remain in the cabinet.
Matak also wants to abolish the High Political
Council, on which he serves. Matak believes the
three-man council, supposedly the country's ruling
body, is no longer effective. He complained that it
meets too infrequently and has little real work to do,
since most important decisions are made before any
business is referred to it. Long Boret, also a coun-
cil member, reportedly shares Matak's views. Lon
Nol is aware of this and has asked them to discuss
the council further and to give him a "recommendation
for action."
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Iraq-USSR:
NOTES
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the USSR has supplied FROG rockets-- 25X1
unguided tactical missiles--to Iraq. One such rocket,
together with support equipment and resupply vehicles,
was identified at a military installation about 45
miles south of Baghdad.
USSR:
Libya - Eastern Europe: Libya has concluded
agreements with Eastern Europe which could raise its
direct oil exports to that area to 140,000 barrels
per day this year--double the amount shipped in 1973.
Poland and Romania signed long-term agreements with
Libya this month--and Czechoslovakia reached a five-
year agreement--to secure oil on a barter basis.
Hungary and Bulgaria arranged last month for rela-
tively small amounts of oil to be delivered this
year. These shipments would represent less than 10
percent of Libya's probable oil exports for 1974.
Romania: Romania has decided to cut back in-
dustrial growth--now the highest in Eastern Europe--
in favor of consumer production and agriculture in
its five-year plan for 1976 to 1980, now apparently
being drafted. President Ceausescu, who announced
this radical change from present policy in a recent
interview, obviously sees a political need to im-
prove the lot of the consumer. An economic ration-
ale may be anticipated balance-of-payments problems
caused by large imports of machinery and equipment.
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