THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 21 NOVEMBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007874
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 21, 1974

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.66(1
The President's Daily Brief
November 21, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5E( I )(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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_ ? _ _
Vietnam:
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November 22, 1974*
Table Of Contents
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USSR: General Secretary Brezhnev has left Moscow
for Vladivostok. (Page 4)
, USSR
USSR-Fedayeen: The Soviets are seeking ?to dissociate
themselves from the more extreme demands of
Yasir Arafat. (Page 6)
USSR: Production of raw sugar may fall 25 percent
below Soviet requirements this year. (Page 7)
France:
/ (Page 8)
Gas Cartel: Algeria and Iran have taken the first
step toward Organizing major exporters of
natural gas under OPEC auspices. (Page 9)
Note: Israel - Arab States. (Page 10)
*Information as of noon EST November 21 1974.
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VIETNAP1
We have new information on Communist
military intentions in Vietnam. What follows
is an assessment by the intelligence
community.
The Communists are preparing to
round of heavy fighting next month
launch 4 new
Re?
cently issued COSVN instructions for 1975 outline
a Communist dry season campaign running through
June, which could amount to the most serious
military test for Saigon since the cease-fire.
These instructions call for widespread and
heavy action, apparently to achieve a maximum
shock effect, throughout much of theSouth
Vietnamese countryside during the--"first days" of
the campaign. Subsequent actiorisim oncentrated
in a relatively few "vulnerable" areas. The
instructions emphasize that the campaign must get
under way as soon as possible--between early and
late December--in order to maintain the element of
surprise and pre-empt any possible government dry
season attacks.
Our Assessment
The COSVN guidelines appear to prescribe a
level of fighting during this initial phase below
that of the 1972 offensive. They suggest, however,
that the Communists may be prepared to commit the
forces and firepower already in the South more
fully than they did during last summer's fighting
in the hopes of achieving some quick and dramatic
victories.
The COSVN guidelines do not cover Hanoi's
military plans for northern South Vietnam
(continued)
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The Communists probably would be able to make
and sustain major gains in only one area--the central
highlands. The North Vietnamese could probably
isolate and bring heavy pressure to bear on either
Kontum City or Pleiku City, should they choose
to make the effort. Communist forces elsewhere in
central South Vietnam could tie down government forces
by threatening population centers along the coast.
Fighting of the magnitude described in the COSVN
guidelines would appear to be within the framework
of the strategy Hanoi adopted toward South Vietnam
following the cease-fire.
The COSVN instructions and an analysis of
current North Vietnamese propaganda strongly suggest
(continued)
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that Hanoi still hopes to use the cease-fire accords 25X1
to its ultimate advantage rather than return to a
total war posture and commit strategic reserve
forces to an all-out offensive in the South. 25X1
The North
Vietnamese leaders have almost certainly decided that
a further, if still measured, increase in military
action would serve to encourage popular agitation
in the South. North Vietnamese propaganda has in-
deed begun to talk about the need for "encouragement"
of the "urban struggle" through military victories.
The COSVN guidelines do not forecast that victory 25X1
in the South can be achieved in 1975.
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USSR
General Secretary Brezhnev has left
Moscow for his meeting with you this weekend.
Accompanying him were Foreign Minister Gromyko,
Civil Aviation Minister Bugayev, Ambassador Dobrynin,
Brezhnev's foreign policy adviser Aleksandrov, Tass
director and press spokesman Zamvatin, and Georgy
Korniyenko, the Foreign Ministry's chief expert on
the US.
Brezhnev interrupted his flight to Vladivostok
for a stop in Khabarovsk, a major city on the
Chinese border, where he held a meeting on November
21 with the party chiefs of all the principal Far
East regions, except the region that includes
Vladivostok.
Meanwhile, Soviet media continue to play up
the importance of the Vladivostok meeting for bi-
lateral relations and for international detente.
Moscow has reported your expressed hope for further
progress at the summit on strategic arms limitation.
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USSR
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USSR,-FEDAYEEN
The Soviets are seeking to dissociate
themselves from the more extreme demands
voiced by fedayeen leader Yasir Arafat
during his UN appearance.
While the USSR has given favorable notice to
?
Arafat's appearance at the UN, it has avoided any
hint of endorsing the maximum demands of the
Palestine Liberation Organization and has reaffirmed
the less extreme Soviet position.
The Soviets have:
--Obscured Arafat's call for a secular, united
Palestine and attributed to him a position
implicitly acknowledging Israel's existence.
--Emphasized in a variety of ways their views
that a Middle East settlement should be
based on the May 1967 boundaries and on
Israel's right to exist.
--Suggested that a Palestinian state be
established on territories occupied by
Israel in June 1967.
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.L FiA WI.
USSR
Production. of raw sugar may fall 25
percent below Soviet requirements this year
as a result of a much poorer sugar beet
harvest than was forecast earlier. The
Soviets .may be able to produce only 9
million tons of raw sugar, about 6.percent
less than last year.
? The USSR normally makes up shortages by im-
porting sugar from Cuba, but the Cubans this year
can provide only about 85 percent of Soviet needs.
Rumors abound that the Soviets are buying other
foreign sugar. No such purchases have been verified,
but such rumors are helping drive up world sugar
prices.
Sugar consumption in the USSR, which has
doubled since 1960, will not be discouraged by
current high world prices. Moscow has not changed
domestic consumer prices, except for a few luxury
items and vodka, for a decade and almost certainly
will not change the price of sugar at this time.
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k _L. .1 A. JI 3-1.1. ? JL
FRANCE
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A. J. J., -I. I J.- 1
GAS CARTEL
Algeria and Iran have taken the first
step toward organizing major exporters of
natural gas under OPEC auspices.
Early this month Iranian and Algerian experts
worked over the fine points of a high-level agree-
ment reached earlier on coordinated action in the
marketing of natural gas.
It they act together, the two countries would
be a strong force in negotiating gas prices, as they
control the major share of Middle East reserves.
Iranian gas reserves may be the largest in the
world. This could bite Moscow, because almost all
of Iran's current natural gas exports go to the
USSR.
The Iranians and Algerians apparently want to
bring other gas producers into their scheme and
may bring the matter up at an early OPEC meeting.
Such current or prospective gas exporters as Libya,
Indonesia, and Nigeria would probably be-interested.
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NOTE
Israel - Arab States: Israel may be getting
ready to retaliate for Tuesday's terrorist attack
on Beit Shean. aircraft flew what
appeared to be reconnaissance missions over southern
Lebanon this morning. In addition, Israeli naval
vessels were spotted on two occasions yesterday
off the Lebanese coast.
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Top Secret
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