THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 7 FEBRUARY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007936
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: February 7, 1975

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/15 : CIA-RDP79T009-36A012400010054-0
The President's Daily Brief
February 7, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category 5B( I ).12)A3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
February 7, 1975
Table of Contents
Turkey-Cyprus: Ankara is studying the prospects for
creating an independent Turkish Cypriot state.
(Page 1)
Thailand: The political right now appears to have
outmaneuvered the Democrat Party in the effort
to form a government. (Page 2)
Portugal: The future role of the military contin-
ues to dominate political discussions. (Page 3)
Spain: General Franco is apparently making plans
to turn over his position as head of state to
Prince Juan Carlos. (Page 4)
Notes: Peru; Turkey-Greece; Ethiopia (Page 5)
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TURKEY-CYPRUS
Ankara is studying the prospects for
creating an independent Turkish Cypriot
state, but the foreign ministry report-
edly believes that the move would be
premature.
A high-level Turkish official told our embassy
yesterday that his government had not ruled out the
formation of an independent Turkish Cypriot state.
He warned that such a move was possible if the Greek
Cypriot leaders continue to insist that they repre-
sent the entire island, rather than just one of two
"communities."
The Turkish official stated that his government
would not break off the intercommunal talks, but the
discussions were being regarded as an exercise in
Earlier this month, Archbishop Makarios
same opinion of the talks and threatened
another forum.
the Greek Cypriots are most likely
the question to the UN Security Council.
on this tactic may be made in the next
futility.
voiced the
to turn to
to present
A decision
few days.
Meanwhile, the Turkish government is still con-
sidering its response to the cutoff of US military
assistance. Apparently, the Turks had no contin-
gency plan for responding to an aid halt. Moreover,
as the first impetus of anger subsides, cooler heads
may have an opportunity to prevail.
Ankara will not take
any early action to prevent the reinstatement of US
assistance. In any case, most military officers be-
lieve that it will take several months for the gen-
eral staff to come up with an alternative to Turkey's
pro-NATO posture. Leftist elements, however, have
been given a strong issue to argue against the un-
reliability of the West. They probably will press
for a nonaligned posture including ties with the
Soviet Union.
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THAILAND
The Thai political right now appears
to have out-maneuvered the Democrat Party
in the effort to form a government.
Although three of the four major conservative
parties agreed earlier this week to support a center-
right coalition led by Democrat Party leader Seni
Pramot, talks broke down over distribution of cab-
inet portfolios. The Democrats, who had won more
seats than any of the other 21 parties in parliament,
refused to give the conservatives control of the
powerful interior ministry. As a result, the key
group in the rightist bloc--the Thai Nation Party--
withdrew from the negotiations.
Further dimming the Democrats hopes of forming
the government was the defeat of their candidate for
the post of speaker of the lower house by a member
of the conservative bloc. Under present parlia-
mentary procedure, the speaker designates the in-
dividual who tries to form a government. The new
speaker presumably will select Praman Adireksan,
the leader of the Thai Nation Party, rather than
Seni Pramot.
Should the conservatives prevail, their cabinet
would be less vulnerable to parliamentary pressures
than any coalition the Democrats could put together.
The conservative bloc controls almost half of the
seats in the new assembly and enjoys the full sup-
port of the military--under army strongman Krit
Siwara--and the business elite.
A conservative government would be strongly
criticized by the press, student, and intellectual
community in Bangkok, where the Democrat Party's
strength is greatest. This could lead to a revival
of radical-led student protests.
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PORTUGAL
The future role of the military in
the government continues to dominate po-
litical discussions in Lisbon. The Com-
munists are stepping up efforts to in-
crease their strength.
The Armed Forces Movement's general assembly
met yesterday to consider legislation defining its
future role in Portuguese politics. The Socialist
and Popular Democratic moderates hope that the mili-
tary will play a limited political role and encour-
age European-style democracy. Leaders of both par-
ties have warned recently that the previous dicta-
torship of the right could be replaced by a left-
wing military regime.
A presidential aide said this week that an
election for a constituent assembly will be held
by April 25, although a public announcement is be-
ing delayed to assure there will be no hitches.
Communist Party leader Cunhal, meanwhile, re-
cently rejected West European parliamentary democ-
racy as a solution for Portugal. Cunhal has been
cultivating a close Working relationship with Prime
Minister GoncalveS. Party members are also joining
the Armed Forces Movement's "cultural dynamism"
propaganda teams during their proselytizing forays
into rural areas. Their mission is to. expose anti-
Communist propaganda and to denounce US imperialism.
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SPAIN
General Franco apparently is making
plans to turn over his position as head
of state to Prince Juan Carlos.
Franco would retain
only his post as commander in chief of the armed
forces.
Rumors have been circulating in Madrid that
Franco would step down ever since he resumed power
last September after a mid-summer illness. Most
sources maintain that Franco is not seriously ill,
but his condition is apparently complicated
Should Juan Carlos assume power, his most im-
mediate problem, aside from the resentment he will
face from the lar right, will be to establish his
independence from his mentor. There Will be a
tendency, as long as Franco is ',functioning in some
capacity, to refer' vital decisions to him.
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NOTES
Peru is calm following two days of extensive
violence.
Tensions remain high in Lima, but the civil
guard has agreed to resume its police duties. Pres-
ident Velasco now appears to be attempting to find
scapegoats for the disorders, and the government-
controlled media has already raised the spectre of
US involvement. For the moment, the massive mili-
tary response will probably inhibit further violence.
Moreover, at least for the time being, the military
is unlikely to break ranks with the president. As
the crisis subsides, however, serious splits may
develop within the military affecting Velasco's ten-
ure of office.
Turkey has accepted Greece's proposal to sub-
mit their dispute over oil prospecting rights and
sovereignty in the Aegean Sea to the International
Court of Justice.
A Turkish official told our embassy yesterday
that Ankara's answer would be an "unqualified yes,"
but the Turks wanted preliminary contacts between
the countries in order to work out the details.
Athens radio described the Turkish answer as "con-
structive" and a Greek spokesman said the two coun-
tries will hold talks to draft a pledge to accept
, the court's ruling. The court's deliberations are
bound to be lengthy and should defuse the trouble-
some dispute.
Ethiopian troops commanded by Colonel Gebre-
Yesus have departed for Addis Ababa and will prob-
ably arrive tomorrow.
plans. The arrival of troops from outside the capi-
tal, plus the units Gebre-Yesus has under his com-
mand in Addis Ababa, will give him a significant ad-
vantage if he decides to move against the governing
military council.
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Top Secret
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