THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 4 DECEMBER 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006014971
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 4, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
December 4, 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category ,513( I
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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December 4, 1975
? Table of Contents
Angola: Forces of the Popular Movement for the
Liberation of Angola earlier this week breached
the defensive line of the National Front for
the Liberation of Angola and advanced to within
45 miles of the National Front's headquarters
at Ambriz. (Page 1)
Indonesia - Portuguese Timor: President Suharto
reportedly has approved a scenario for overt
Indonesian intervention in Portuguese Timor.
(Page 2)
Portugal: The Communists were dealt another blow
on December 3 when the Azevedo government
nationalized all radio and television stations
except those that are foreign- or church-owned.
(Page 3)
Syria-Israel:
USSR:
Australia: Public opinion polls show a trend in
favor of the country's Liberal-Country coali-
tion as the campaign for the national elec-
tion on December 13 enters the final stretch.
(Page 6)
Notes: USSR; Philippines; Bangladesh-India; Laos;
Cuba-Angola; Poland (Pages 7, 8, and 9)
(This brief, with information as of 1:00 P.M. EST,
was cabled on this date to the President in
Asia.)
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ANGOLA
Forces of the Popular Movement for
the Liberation of Angola earlier this
week breached the defensive line of the
National Front for the Liberation of
Angola along the Lifune River. By De-
cember 3, these forces, presumably
bolstered by Cuban troops, were about
45 miles south of the National Front's
headquarters at Ambriz.
Most of the estimated 600 to
800 Zairian troops stationed there fled northward
toward Ambrizete, despite National Front efforts
to stop them.
Morale within the National Front in northern
Angola apparently has been low for some time as its
forces have been pushed back since their earlier
advance to within ten miles of Luanda. It is not
certain at this time that they can be rallied to
give a strong defense of Ambriz, even with substan-
tial Zairian support.
The capture of Ambriz would deprive the Na-
tional Front of its major base of operations in
northern Angola, leaving only Carmona as a staging
area for military operations. Carmona, however, is
in the interior and cannot easily be resupplied.
It will be extremely difficult for the National
Front to mount any sort of counteroffensive against
the Popular Movement if it loses Ambriz.
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INDONESIA - PORTUGUESE TIMOR
there is a
possibility that the present offensive in Timor by
pro-Indonesia Timorese
may seize Dili prior to the arrival of regular In-
donesian forces. The regular forces could then
describe their mission as peace-keeping designed to
assure order. According to the scenario, three
months after order is restored Indonesia would or-
ganize a referendum in East Timor to provide the
legal ratification for integration of the former
colony as a province of Indonesia.
Suharto undoubtedly is still concerned about
the effects of an Indonesian invasion on his bi-
lateral relations with the US and, in particular,
continuation of US military aid. He probably hopes
he can present a plausible justification for inter-
vention that will avert problems with Washington.
His military commanders, moreover, may have worked
out a battle plan that will exclude the use of US
security assistance equipment in the final cross-
border operation, thereby observing the letter if
not the spirit of Indonesian-US agreements.
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PORTUGAL
The Communists were dealt another
blow on December 3 when the Azevedo gov-
ernment nationalized all radio and tele-
vision stations except those that are
foreign- or church-owned.
Nationalization has been expected since govern-
ment forces occupied the stations during the mutiny
last week. Although the Communists up to now have
not been directly implicated in the mutiny, media
under their control have been accused of contrib-
uting to the atmosphere that produced the uprising
and of supporting it once it was under way.
The Communists' grip on the national press was
loosened last week when the administrative and edi-
torial boards of eight major newspapers were summa-
rily dismissed. Top officials of the government
news agency, which had served as a Communist propa-
ganda outlet, were also replaced.
On top of all this, the Communist Party's right
to a place in the government is being challenged.
Although Major Ernesto Melo Antunes, head of the
dominant group in the military, says the Communists
still have an essential role to play, they have come
in for severe criticism from the democratic parties,
which hold them accountable for the uprising.
The center-left Popular Democrats are demanding
the immediate dismissal of all Communists from the
government. The Socialists are demanding that the
Communists repudiate the rebellion and swear loyalty
to the government if they are to continue partici-
pating in the cabinet.
Both the Antunes faction and the Socialists
probably would prefer that the Communists remain
in the government to help ensure labor peace until
a measure of stability is restored to the economy.
Continued friction between the Popular Democrats
and the Communists could, however, prompt the mil-
itary to drop both parties from the government and
rule with the Socialists until an election is held
next spring.
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SYRIA?ISRAEL
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USSR
We now think the Soviet anti-ballis-
tic missile system under development at
Sary Shagan may be designed to intercept
targets after they have re-entered the
atmosphere.
The Soviets initially tested the system's abil-
ity to intercept targets before they have entered
the atmosphere, and it may also have this capability.
In the past two years, however, the missile associ-
ated with the system--the SH-4--has been tested pri-
marily at lower altitudes. The Soviets do not have
an operational ABM capable of intercept within the
atmosphere.
The Soviets could be thinking of using the SH-4
in a special way. The missile would be launched
while the incoming targets were still outside the
atmosphere; it would remain aloft while the decoys
burn up in the atmosphere, and only then attack the
incoming re-entry vehicle.
We do not know if the SH-4 has the capability
to remain aloft and wait until all decoys are gone.
If not, several SH-4s might have to be launched to
assure destruction of the target. Even more mis-
siles would be required to assure destruction out-
side the atmosphere.
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AUSTRALIA
Public opinion polls show a trend in
favor of Australia's Liberal-Country coa-
lition as the campaign for the national
election on December 13 enters the final
stretch. If the trend holds, the coali-
tion will win a comfortable majority in
parliament.
Constitutional questions raised by the abrupt
dismissal of Whitlam's Labor government have been
eclipsed by the economy as the primary issue. The
coalition has also been aided by the lackluster cam-
paign being run by Whitlam and the Labor Party.
The leader of the Liberal-Country coalition,
Malcom Fraser, is running an effective, well-financed
campaign. He seems to be relying mostly on the
voters' disenchantment with Labor.
Fraser has hit a responsive chord with the pub-
lic by pledging to introduce legislation requiring
a secret ballot in labor union elections--a step de-
signed to weaken the hold of communist union leaders.
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NOTES
The Soviet media are giving limited attention
to your triF-T3 Peking; their primary focus has
been on castigating the Chinese for their "vicious
attacks" on Soviet detente policies.
The media have carried all of your remarks in
defense of detente in an effort to prove that the
US is not about to change its policy to suit Peking.
Moscow is still reminding its domestic audience,
however, that China and the US have common ground
on issues such as the Middle East and Angola. The
Soviets also expect that there may be some progress
on trade, scientific, and cultural exchanges.
Activist Catholic priests and nuns, labor
union leaders, and members of the pro-Peking Commu-
nist Party are planning a protest rally in Manila
to coincide with your visit. The Communists hope
to take advantage of the demonstration to agitate
against the US presence in the Philippines, al-
though the main focus of the rally will be opposi-
tion to a recent labor decree by President Marcos.
The decree, among other things, imposes a total
strike ban and prohibits all foreigners from en-
gaging in trade union activities. Missionary
priests, including many foreigners, are among the
most active union organizers and supporters of
labor activities. There is some fear the decree
may be part of a broader attempt by Marcos to neu-
tralize the church's effectiveness as a means for
organizing opposition. Marcos recently has hinted
that his government is considering new restrictions
against foreign priests, many of whom are Americans,
and the protest rally could prompt him to carry out
these veiled threats.
(continued)
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Communal tension in Bangladesh and strained
relations between Dacca and India will be exacer-
bated if a pro-Muslim, anti-Indian rally, called
for Sunday, comes off.
The rally is being organized by a veteran op-
position leader and has been heralded by inflamma-
tory leaflets that condemn India and urge Islamic
unity. The US embassy in Dacca reports that the
anti-Indian sentiments in the leaflets have struck
a responsive chord among Bengalee Muslims. Govern-
ment officials in Dacca, fearful of Indian inter-
vention, presumably will try to block the rally
or at least keep it from getting out of hand and
endangering the Hindu minority.
A communist spokesman in Laos announced on
December 4 that Prince Souphanouvong will be pres-
ident of the new Laotian People's Republic. His
half-brother, Prince Souvanna Phouma, was named
an "adviser to the government," and King Savang was
made "supreme adviser" to the president.
Souphanouvong's post, as well as the advisory
positions of King Savang and Prince Souvanna, al-
most certainly will be ceremonial since the secre-
tary general of the Laotian Communist Party, Kaysone
Phomvihan, has taken the position of prime minister.
In addition, the party's deputy chief has been made
deputy prime minister, and all the ministers an-
nounced are senior party officials.
Cuba has stepped up its military support for
the P7p7-27Tar Movement in Angola. We now believe
there may be as many as 4,000 Cubans in Africa
supporting the war effort in Angola.
(continued)
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Poland has nearly completed negotiations with
General Motors on a $500-million deal under which
the US company will assist in the design and pro-
duction of delivery vans.
The contract, the largest ever between Poland
and a US firm, is expected to be signed next spring
if Warsaw can arrange financing. The Poles have
asked the Export-Import Bank for a $121-million
loan and also have asked Morgan Guaranty Trust
Company to put together a consortium loan for the
project.
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Top Secret
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