THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 5 OCTOBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007834
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 5, 1974

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The Presi ent s aily rief
October 5, 1974
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Exempt from general
declauification schedule of Ea 11652
exemption category 513(1),(2(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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`ve?
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Table of Contents
October 5, 1974
Portugal: Dissension may be developing within the
armed forces over the government's drift to
the left. (Page 1)
Ethiopia: Troops moving into capital raise tensions
as power struggle within military continues.
(Page 2)
(Page 3)
France-Israel:
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Vietnam: North Vietnamese infiltration to the
south may increase soon. (Page 5)
Notes: France; Philippines; India; USSR-India;
USSR-France (Pages 6-aild 7)
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PORTUGAL
Dissension may be developing within
the armed forces over the government's
gradual drift to the left.
a petition now
being circulated in Support 'Of the for-,
mer president has been Signed by over
800 officers.
A similar petition surfaced in late August.
It was supposed to back SpinOla'spoSition and
gather support for disbanding the Armed Forces .
Movement Coordinating Committee. Spinola received
the backing of a majority of the officers, but the
Cobrdinating Committee has continued ,to operate.
In fact, recent events have increased its influence.
Council of State legislation early this week
made the Coordinating committee part of the armed
forces General Staff. The Movement will now be in
a'better position to override President Costa
Gomes, who is chief of staff of the armed forces,
on military policy.. This development, along with
Prime Minister Goncalves' take-Over of the Defense
Ministry, puts the left-leaning Movement in a
strong position to control the military.
A further polarization between regular officers
and Armed Forces Movement members is likely over
the choice of a replacement for the former army
chief of staff, who was one of the 'four junta mem-
bers ousted last weekend. The regular officers,
though they agree with the basic .aims of the Move
ment's program, resent the promotions Movement
members have had since the :coup, as well as the
increased politicization of the military.
The regular officers have not recovered from
the shock of Spinolas resignation, and do not 'ap-
pear to have the organization necessary to chal-
lenge_the Movement seriously. If they do not move
soon, the Movement's control may become incontest-
able.
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ETHIOPIA
Troops supporting different military
factions are moving into Ethiopia's cap-
ital, adding to tensions as the complex
struggle for power within the military
continues.
The ruling military committee held meetings
Thursday and yesterday in an effort to avert a
clash among its various contending factions.
While it was meeting. additional troops Of the 1st
Division moved into Addis Ababa. The action, and
other measures of military:preparedness taken by
the 1st Division, may be a show of force aimed at
influencing the committee's decisions.
The 1st Division, until recently, had primary
responsibility for protecting the royal familY.
It only belatedly joined the military committee
Some members
of the 1st Division want to restructure the 120-
man committee into a less cumbersome body.
In a showdown, 1st Division forces would be
far superior to those of the other unit assigned
to the capital--the 4th Division. The movement
of other units into Addis Ababa may represent an
effort by those opposed to the 1st Division to
get troops into the capital to even the balance.
In addition to its serious factional disputes,
the military must cope with unruly radical students
who are agitating against a proposal that calls
for them to perform two years of national service
in the countryside.
The military held a meeting with students on
Thursday to conciliate differences, but the affair
ended in violence. The students are likely to
hold demonstrations in the next few days calling
for immediate civilian government, contributing
further to tensions in the capital.
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USSR :
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FRANCE-ISRAEL
The Israeli visitor was said to be most in-
terested in the supersonic Mirage F-1 fighter, but
cautioned that Israeli leaders would have to weigh
carefully Washington's probable reaction to any Is-
raeli purchase of F-ls. Egypt and Kuwait reportedly
have already bought some of these aircraft
A major sale of fighters to Israel might cause
political problems for France. Over recent years,
good relations with the Arabs have come to be a
basic aim of French foreign policy, because of the.
overriding concern to assure an adequate supply of
oil.
Even during the embargo, however, the French
avoided cutting off the Israelis completely. Tel
Aviv managed to obtain a steady stream of spare
parts for its French Mirage and Mystere aircraft,
'despite the embargo. Moreover, as a result of the
recent visit by the Israeli chief of staff, Israel
has ordered and is now receiving some replacement
engines for its 60 Mirages.
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VIETNAM
Hanoi has not yet begun its seasonal
infiltration of troops to South Vietnam's
southern battlefronts, but the flow of man-
power through the pipeline could increase
soon.
Hanoi stopped sending troops to the central
highlands and the southern half of the country last
spring. During the summer months, however, the
North Vietnamese maintained a flow of troops to
the north-central coast of South Vietnam, where the
Communists were conducting widespread attacks
against government positions.
In September, Hanoi began Moving troops to
units along the infiltration network; suggesting
that it was getting the system ready for heavier
supply and troop movements. Hanoi generally begins
infiltration to southern South Vietnam during Octo-
ber or November. Hanoi has significantly improved
its capability for moving troops south over the
past year or so and can now get them to the prov-
inces around Saigon in as little as three weeks.
In mid-summer, Hanoi had enough men undergoing
basic training to sustain at least a modest infil-
tration effort this fall and winter. The North
Vietnamese, moreover, conducted a major countrywide
conscription drive during August and September;
these new recruits may not be ready to infiltrate,
until next spring. According to one intercept,
they are to receive nine months of training, rather
than the four or six months normally given. A
longer training period would be consistent with
Hanoi's continuing campaign to strengthen its armed
forces.
Hanoi could augment its forces in the South by
sending some of the combat units in its large stra-
tegic reserve. There are no signs, however, that
any of the six divisions in the reserve are prepar-
ing to move.
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NOTES
Philippines: President Marcos said yesterday
that relations with Peking and Moscow would be
normalized "as soon as possible.." To follow up on
Mrs. Marcos' visit to China in September, a Philip-
pine mission will go to Peking this month. It is
specifically charged with working out details of
trade arrangements, but Marcos says it is empowered
to negotiate on "any other matter." Marcos reit-
erated his intention of opening ties with the Chi-
nese and Soviets simultaneously. He did not indi-
cate that he intends to hold any comparable talks
with Moscow, although the Soviets would certainly
be receptive. ?Despite Marcos' implication of speedy
action, he will probably continue to move gradually
in respect to both Moscow and Peking.
India:
USSR-India: The Soviet Union continues to re-
fuse India's requests for food grain. Premier
Kosygin did promise to look into the possibility
of sending other commodities--primarily non-food--
to India, even if this should require the diversion
of shipments destined for other countries.
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USSR-France: The French have announced that
General Secretary Brezhnev will visit France from
December 5 to 7. A meeting at that time will fit
the pattern of top-level visits (roughly two a
year) that the two countries have exchanged since
they signed a protocol on consultations in 1970,
Past meetings have served mainly to uphold the ap-
pearance of an especially close relationship be-
tween the USSR and France. Brezhnev met with the .
late President Pompidou at a Black Sea resort last
March. The December trip will be Brezhnev's first
personal encounter with President Giscard d'Estaing
since Giscard assumed office.
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