THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 17 MAY 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006015111
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: May 17, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/19 : CIA-RDP79T00936A013400010004-4
The President's Daily Brief
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption categoot5B( I
declassified ontV on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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May 17, 1976
Table of Contents
Lebanon: The latest cease-fire failed again in Beirut, but the
situation in Tripoli has calmed down. (Page 1)
USSR: The Soviet Union's annual growth rate in industrial
production will be the lowest since World War II if it con-
tinues to maintain its first quarter rate. (Page 1)
China: An article commemorating the tenth anniversary of the
Cultural Revolution sets out the concerns of leading left-
ists within the regime. (Page 2)
Jamaica-Cuba:
At Annex we discuss the prospects for the Italian Communist
Party in the coming parliamentary election.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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LEBANON: The latest
cease-fire failed again
in Beirut over the week-
end, but the situation
has calmed down in Trip-
oli where heavy fighting
occurred last week be-
tween Syrian forces and
pro-Iraqi elements.
USSR: The Soviet
Union's annual growth
rate in industrial pro-
duction will be the low-
est since World War II
if it continues to main-
tain its first quarter
rate--4 percent compared
with 6.4 percent in the
same period last year.
Damascus, responding in part to a
demarche from Lebanese Muslim lead-
ers, has withdrawn some of its reg-
ular forces and Saiqa units from
Tripoli. The Syrian-controlled
Palestine Liberation Army report-
edly also has moved its forces out
of the city.
President-elect Sarkis continued
his round of consultations with
various Lebanese political factions
and is scheduled to meet with Pres-
ident Franjiyah today. Sarkis is
still trying to work out a recon-
ciliation with leftist leader Kamal
Jumblatt.
Tensions between Syrian authorities
and local Palestinian communities
in Syria have increased as a result
of the growing number of casualti25xl
Syrian Palestinian forces have sus-
n' in Lebanon.
The consumer is bearing the brunt
of industry's mediocre performance.
Last year's poor harvest is re-
flected in decreased production
of processed food--down nearly 7
percent from output in the first
three months of 1975. A good har-
vest this fall could brighten the
agricultural picture by the end
of the year, but any improvement
would require more than 3 months
to affect industrial production.
--continued
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CHINA: An article com-
memorating the tenth
anniversary of the
opening of the Cultural
Revolution, published
jointly yesterday by
China's three leading
journals, sets forth
clearly the concerns
of leading leftists
within the regime. It
stops well short of a
call to action against
more conservative ele-
ments associated with
former vice premier
Teng Hsiao-ping.
The dismal quarter for industry
hardly comes as a surprise to the
Soviet leadership. When the total
1976 production target was estab-
lished last December, the planned
growth rate was the slowest since
World War II. What probably dis-
tresses the leaders is the host
of individual products that did
not even meet the reduced goals.
The article accuses Teng of "mus-
tering unrepentant capitalist-
roaders and putting them in posi-
tions of power." This is the
clearest and most authoritative
indication that the leftists hope
to broaden the campaign and purge
party officials who were "rehabil-
itated" and given important posts
in the past several years. The
operative paragraphs of the article,
however, merely call for contin-
uing criticism of Teng alone.
According to the article, the so-
called capitalist-roaders "hold a
very large proportion of the party
and state power." This admission
not only indicates that leading
regime organs--the Politburo, Cen-
tral Committee, and State Council
and perhaps the military as well--
are split, but also strongly sug-
gests that the leftists are in a
minority. The leftists seem to be
making the strongest possible case
for their viewpoint in hope of win-
ning over fence-sitting or neutral
figures in the party and military.
The split at the upper levels of
the regime appears to be causing
increasing problems in the prov-
inces. Work slowdowns, factional
--continued
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JAMAICA-CUBA:
disputes, and demoralization of
lower level cadre seem to be wide-
spread. The confusion may be ap-
proaching that observed during the
anti-Confucius campaign of 1974,
but it does not begin to approxi-
mate that of the Cultural Revolution
itself. The central authorities
continue to inveigh against the
formation of "fighting groups"
and against mass movements from
place to place by activists--two
hallmarks of the 1966-68 revolu-
tion.
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ITALY'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
On June 20, in Italy's seventh parliamentary
election since World War II, the Communists have
their first real opportunity to replace the Chris-
tian Democrats as the country's largest party and
to acquire a share of power at the national level.
The prospect of such a breakthrough by the Commu-
nists will overshadow all other campaign issues.
Although the Communists had been gaining grad-
ually since the 1946 constituent assembly race and
had been the second largest party since 1953, they
still trailed the Christian Democrats by more than
11 percent in the 1972 parliamentary election.
Last June the Communists captured about a third of
the vote in nationwide regional and local elec-
tions, coming within 2 percent of the Christian
Democrats. This gave the Communist question a new
immediacy, deepened existing divisions within the
governing parties, and dealt the final blow to the
foundering center-left alliance that had governed
Italy since 1963.
There will be at least eight parties on the
ballot, but the shape of things in the post elec-
tion period will hinge mainly on the outcome of
the competition between the Christian Democrats,
Communists, and Socialists. Together these par-
ties controlled about 80 percent of the seats in
the outgoing parliament.
The Christian Democrats
The fortunes of the Christian Democrats are
at a postwar nadir. They have not recovered from
the shock of the Communist party's advance last
summer and have yet to unite to formulate a long-
term strategy aimed at reversing the trend toward
the Communists. The party lacks decisive leader-
ship and is weakened by domestic and international
scandals. Efforts to get the Christian Democratic
campaign off the ground, moreover, are hampered by
a traditionally creaky organization, a shortage of
funds, and continuing friction between the Chris-
tian Democratic left and right.
--continued
Al
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Fanfani, Zaccagnini, and Moro
The party left--led by Christian Democratic
secretary Zaccagnini and Prime Minister Moro--ap-
pears uncomfortable with the idea of running a cam-
paign that relies mainly on an anti-Communist theme.
Party president Fanfani and other conservatives be-
lieve the party's campaign should emphasize the un-
certainties and dangers that would result if the
Communists gain increased influence at the national
level.
Tanfani's argument is likely to prevail and
result in a Christian Democratic attempt to turn
the election into a referendum on the question of
Communist entry into the government. The Christian
Democrats are likely to challenge in particular the
Communists' professed commitment to a democratic
and pluralistic society and to focus attention on
the Communists' failure so far to make a defini-
tive break with Moscow.
The Communists
The last year was the most successful in the
Communist Party's history. As a result of the par-
ty's gains in the local elections, 60 to 65 percent
of the Italian population is now governed by re-
gional or local administrations dominated by or de-
pendent on the Communists.
--continued
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In addition, the Communists are operating in a
far more receptive political atmosphere than at any
previous time. The Christian Democrats' three most
likely coalition partners--the Socialists, Social
Democrats, and Republicans--all have endorsed for-
mulas that would formalize consultations with the
Communists.
Despite the factors working in their favor,
the Communists are troubled by several tactical and
strategic problems. They worry, for example, about
attacking the Christian Democrats while at the same
time defending party chief Berlinguer's "historic
compromise" proposal that calls for an eventual al-
liance with them. The Communists are also concerned
about how to hold on to the new middle class votes
they won last June without alienating the party's
labor base in the process.
The principal Commu-
nist fear is that the
Christian Democrats may be
able to exploit the uncer-
tainty that many Italians
continue to feel about how
the Communists would be-
have once in power and to
capitalize on the inter-
national controversy that
will surround the campaign
Berlinguer as a conse-
quence has decided to de-
emphasize the "historic
compromise" during the
campaign. In a major
speech last week, he called
for a post-election "emer-
gency" government, includ-
ing all parties except the
neo-fascists.
Berlinguer
The Socialists
The Socialists occupy a pivotal role between
the Communists and Christian Democrats and are
hoping to gain enough votes to minimize the dan-
gers they see in allying with either of the larger
parties. Ideologically, the Socialist Party pre-
fers the Communist Party but fears domination and
eventual extinction in an alliance with Berlinguer.
--continued
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The Socialists have less fear of working with the
Christian Democrats, but dislike their policies
and worry about the electoral repercussions of
continued partnership with a declining party.
As a result, Socialist chief De Martino is
trying to mount a campaign that leaves all of the
party's post-election options open. The Social-
ist campaign will doubtless feature claims that a
strengthened Socialist Party would be able to
force the Christian Democrats to adopt social and
economic reforms they have resisted so far.
At the same time, the Socialists are likely
to call at least for open Communist participation
04?T. in the formulation of goy-
," ernment programs, hoping
in that way to avoid being
r- the only party on the left
that must accept responsi-
bility for government actions.
In discussing post-elec-
tion possibilities, most
Italian political leaders
appear to have concluded
already that it will be im-
possible to avoid some form
of open Communist involvement
in national policymaking.
The major question appears
to be whether it will be in-
direct--as in the case of a
coalition committed to con-
sult the Communists--or di-
rect--a Communist alliance
with either the Socialists
or Christian Democrats or a
broadly based emergency gov-
ernment. With the election
De Martino still five weeks away, most
signs seem to point to a limited and indirect role
for the Communists.
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