THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 18 NOVEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992980
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 18, 1971

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A010100170001-6
The President's Daily Brief
18 November 1971
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Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A010100170001-6
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/06/14 : CIA-RDP79T00936A010100170001-6
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
18 November 19/1
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The reassumption of full power by Thailand's mili-
tary leaders will have little effect on domestic or
foreign policies. (Page 1)
Prime Minister Gandhi hopes that outside pressures
on Islamabad will impel the Pakistanis toward an
accommodation. (Page 2)
We discuss on Page 3 the impact of China's leader-
ship struggle on the country's armed forces.
East Germans
China
Japan
(Page 4)
\Panamal
(Page 5)
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THAILAND
The reassertion of full power by Field Marshal Thanom
and the Thai military establishment will not have a
dramatic effect on the way Thailand is governed nor
on the country's domestic or foreign policies. Nor
do the changes appear to be a direct consequence of
arguments over substantive policies, either domestic
or foreign. There is no evidence that issues of di-
rect interest to the US figured in the considera-
tions that Zed to the government's moves.
The military had become increasingly exasperated
over its difficulties with political opponents and
particularly with a sometimes recalcitrant parlia-
ment, which was abolished with the annulment of the
constitution that created it.
The suspension of the constitution and parliament
will be popular throughout the military and will
temporarily provide a sense of decisiveness and di-
rection that has been absent at the top.
There seems little doubt that the military will
bring off its reassumption of full power with a min-
imum of difficulty. It seems unlikely that any
troop commanders will challenge the leadership, par-
ticularly since the immediate targets of the govern-
ment are civilians. There will be considerable
grumbling .among the Bangkok citizenry, but any dem-
onstrations should be easy to contain.
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
Prime Minister Gandhi has adopted a restrained
posture since coming home last weekend from Europe
and the US. She told Parliament she still hopes
Western countries will be ?able to bring Pakistan to
negotiate with imprisoned Eastern leader Mujibur
Rahman. She told her own party's deputies that In-
dia must not act "in haste or anger" but instead
should conti t e lore all ossible avenues to
a solution.
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For the moment, Mrs. Gandhi apparently
wants to see whether Western pressure on
Pakistan will force Islamabad in the di-
rection of accommodation. She is also
counting on growing pressures upon Islama-
bad from the Mukti Bahini guerrillas, who
with Indian support are making increased
inroads in many areas of East Pakistan.
There have been signs that President Yahya may
be attempting to test West Pakistani public attitudes
toward the idea of releasing Mujibur Rahman. During
the past two weeks the government has allowed West
Pakistani opposition groups to call publicly for
Mujib's release(
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There remain, however, serious obstacles
to any attempt by Yahya to deal with Mujib.
Most of the West Pakistani public would
probably acquiesce, but the reaction of
military leaders is less predictable since
many officers believe Mujib is responsible
for the massacre last March of Pakistani
troops and their families. Moreover, it
is unlikely that either Mujib or Yahya
could make significant concessions and
still maintain their positions of leader-
ship.
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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COMMUNIST CHINA
The political role of the armed forces is being
downplayed in the wake of the leadership upheaval.
For years the armed forces were touted as a-model
for nationwide emulation. Since the fall of Defense
Minister Lin Piao and other military leaders, how-
ever, radiobroadcasts.have emphasized the necessity
for the military to subordinate itself-to "collective
leadership" under the party. In.addition, the army's
performance in the many civil governing tasks.it in-
herited as a result of the Cultural Revolution is
getting less public attention. Finally, there have
been a number of warnings to. army units to observe
strict discipline and obey all orders.
Peking is .concerned lest the political upheaval
spread outward to the regions, where military com-
manders have in the past been faced with, local man-
ifestations of the factionalism at the center. Be-
yond, that, however, there have been indications
since last summer that. some among the leadership in
Peking have been arguing for a reduction of the
overwhelming influence of the army. Premier Chou
En-Zai has publicly expressed concern that China
had assumed the image of bureaucratic military-dic-
tatorship. Privately, he has said that some insti-
tutional changes wrought during the Cultural Revo-
lution are likely to be only temporary, implying
that he foresees a further lessening of military in-
fluence. This may mean more civilians in top jobs.
One veteran civilian cadre, the Hunan provincial
party boss, has recently turned up in Peking, where
his ranking just below the active politburo members
in a recent leadership turnout suggests that he is
slated for a high post.
The process of rectifying the present imbalance be-
tween military and civilian authority, will not, how-
ever, occur overnight nor result in a broad purge of
the present military, administrators. The military
was well represented among the large turnout of .
party and government figures in Peking last week,
and on 13 November a former army political commissar
was identified as the new head of an important min-
istry. He is the sixth military .man in the past
year to be named' chief of a central ministry.
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COMMUNIST CHINA - JAPAN
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USSR - EAST GERMANY
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PANAMA
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Top Secret
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