THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 24 NOVEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466906
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 24, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000300060003-1
The President's Daily Brief
November 24, 1976
2
c,...r_ez211
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000300060003-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/14 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000300060003-1
Exempt from general
declassification scheduk of E 0 11652
.xemPhon mitegorY 513(1),(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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7--------'
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
November 24, 1976
Table of Contents
Rhodesia-Zambia:
USSR-Turkey: The USSR has suggested that Premier Kosygin visit
Turkey at the site of a joint dam project on the border.
Ankara is agreeable but no date has been set. (Page 1)
Notes: Iran; USSR; Libya-USSR (Pages 3 and 4)
)
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Angola
South-West Africa
(Namibia)
*Windhoek
Walvis Bay
(S. Af ) I
Atlantic
Ocean
Botswana
Zambia
Lusaka
Gaborone
South
Africa
1
M awl
Lilang e
Kartba
Lake
*Salisbury
Mozambique
Rhodesia
*Pretoria
*Maputo
Mbab'aine
Swazila
aseru
LesiStho
Indian
Ocean
0 500 MILES
0 500 KILOMETERS
620717 11 76
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
RHODESIA-ZAMBIA:
*
USSR-TURKEY: The USSR
has suggested that Pre-
mier Kosygin visit Tur-
key for a ground-break-
ing ceremony for a
joint dam project on
the international bor-
der. Ankara is agree-
able to the visit but
no date has been set.
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*
*
The Soviets apparently hope to
come to a conclusion on terms of
the "political document" the two
countries agreed last December to
sign. The Turks found unaccept-
able an initial Soviet draft. The
Turks would prefer a document that
resembles the declaration of good
neighborly relations the two coun-
tries signed in 1972.
Turkish Prime Minister Demirel
told the US ambassador earlier
this month that it would be some
1
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
time before such a new document
was signed. The Prime Minister
will be careful to keep the issue
alive, however, since he views it
as an important card to hold while
the US Congress deals with the US-
Turkish defense cooperation agree-
ment.
Demirel reportedly also sees the
prospective meeting with Kosygin
as an opportunity to explore possi-
bilities for acquiring additional
Soviet economic aid for Turkey,
which already ranks high among the
recipients of Soviet assistance.
--continued
2
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Iran's current-account
surpZus, which probably
will total $5.6 bil-
lion this year, does
not support the Shah's
proclaimed need for a
large oil price hike.
The USSR conducted an
underground nuclear
test yesterday at the
Shagan River Test Area
at Semipalatinsk.
NOTES
Even with no oil price increase
next year, Iran probably would
run a $4.2-billion current-account
surplus. A 10-percent oil price
hike would raise the 1977 surplus
to $6.6 billion.
Iran experienced a financial set-
back last year when imports almost
doubled as the country rushed
ahead with its ambitious develop-
ment program, and exports declined
in response to the slump in world
demand for heavy crude oil. Oil
exports began to rebound early
this year, however, and crude oil
liftings are close to capacity.
Imports, on the other hand, will
remain at about the 1975 level.
Slow progress in clearing and ex-
panding the ports to eliminate
congestion and the government's
decision in June 1975 to stretch
out the development plan should
hold down imports for the next few
years.
The preliminary estimate of the
yield by the US Atomic Energy De-
tection System is between 96 and
550 kilotons, assuming that the
test was conducted in sedimentary
rock. If the test was conducted
in granite, the estimate would be
between 80 and 280 kilotons.
These ranges are attributable to
uncertainty in determining from
seismic body wave data alone the
yields of tests conducted in
these formations.
3
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Continuing seismic studies asso-
ciated with Soviet underground
tests suggest that our estimated
yields for tests at Semipalatinsk
may show an upward bias. If this
is the case, the estimated yield
ranges for yesterday's test would
eventually be revised downward
from those cited above.
Yesterday's was the third test in
this general yield range at Shagan
River this year--about the same
number as in the past few years.
Activity in the area appears to
be proceeding normally, suggest-
ing that Shagan River will con-
tinue to be an active test area.
* * *
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Top Secret
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