THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 24 OCTOBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007850
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 24, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
October 24, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemPlion categorY 513(1),(21.(3)
declauitied only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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LATE ITEM
South Vietnamese President Thieu has
ousted four cabinet members in response
to rising political dissent. Those fired
include the President's cousin, Informa-
tion Minister Hoang Dud Nha, who has been
one of his closest advisers.
The removal of Nha is a ploy to mollify crit-
ics of Saigon's enforcement of press restrictions.
Nha, as information minister, has been the govern-
ment's chief censor.
The other three cabinet members headed the
ministries of finance, trade and industry, and
agriculture. Their resignations were obtained by
Thieu to help dampen criticism of the governmentts-
handling of the economy.
There was no announcement of a new assignment
for Nha, but he is unlikely to lose his influence
and access to Thieu.
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October 24, 1974
Table of Contents
Turkey-Greece: The dispute over oil rights in the
Aegean may be rekindled by Turkish oil explora-
tion in the area. (Page 1)
Greece: The arrest of former junta leaders is de-
signed to satisfy public demands that they be
punished. (Page 2)
China: The Chinese have sharply reduced their, sched-
uled grain imports, with most of the impact fall-
ing on US shipments, (Page 3)
Venezuela: Caracas is seeking to develop new petro-
leum markets. (Page 4)
Peru-Chile:
Notes: Egypt-Israel; Saudi Arabia; Arab Aid; Norway;
USSR; USSR - South Yemen; Israel (Pages 6 and 7)
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TURKEY-GREECE
The Greek-Turkish dispute over oil
rights in the Aegean could be rekindled
as a result of Ankara's decision to move
ahead with oil exploration in the area.
The Turks have announced that contracts have
been signed with Norwegian and Danish companies to
conduct seismic surveys in the Aegean. The explora-
tion is expected to begin by late November. Ankara
also has concluded an agreement with ?a US consortium
for seismic research ?and exploratory drilling, but
the Turks reportedly want to keep this latter agree-
ment quiet for now, according to the US embassy.
The Turkish announcement of the contracts with
the Scandinavian companies comes at an awkward time
for Greek Prime Minister Karamanlis; problems with
Turkey over Cyprus ?are already a hot issue in the
Greek election campaign.
Although the Turkish action seems likely to
spark renewed Greek protests, a direct confronta-
tion over the issue does not seem to be in the cards
at this time;
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GREECE
.
The arrest of former president Papa-
dopouZos and four of his close associates
is designed to satisfy public demands that
leaders of the military junta be punished.
This has become a major election issue,
and Prime Minister Karamanlis has been
criticized for not breaking decisively with
the past. The move should increase his
standing among all groups except the ex-
treme right.
The arrest of Papadopoulos is not likely to
bring a strong reaction from the army, where he does
not retain significant support.
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CHINA
The Chinese have sharply reduced
their scheduled grain imports for 1974,
with most of the impact falling on US
shipments. Growing conditions for the
important fall crop, beginning to be
harvested, have been good, and the Chi-
nese now claim their grain production
this year will surpass the 1973 level
of 250 million tons. Erratic weather
early in the year probably led the Chi-
nese to overbuy grain at midyear, when
wheat prices appeared to be softening.
A contract for 600,000 tons of US soybeans has
been canceled. Three contracts for US wheat and ship-
ment of 500,000 tons of Candian wheat will be deferred
until 1975. We have reduced our earlier estimates
of Chinese grain imports in 1974 by about 1.8 million
tons and now estimate that China will import some 7.6
million tons of grain in 1974 and, 7.1 million tons
in 1975.
Contaminated cargoes and dock strikes in Canada
also contributed to the reductions.
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VENEZUELA
Reports of large oil discoveries
in Mexico are spurring Venezuela to
develop new petroleum markets, despite
official statements from Caracas stress-
ing the noncompetitiveness of the MexiL
can oil find.
Venezuela is offering to supply the Japanese
with 400,000 to 500,000 barrels of oil per day(
/ Official trade missions leaving
soon for Europe, Africa, and the Far East also will
be looking for new oil markets.
Such markets would enable Caracas to lessen its
dependence on oil sales to the US. In a recent
speech, President Perez emphasized the high priority
he gives to diversifying Venezuela's markets. In an
allusion to the US, he noted that his administration
was going to "affirm its economic independence by
eliminating all dependence on a single country--no
matter how powerful."
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PERU?CHILE
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NOTES
Egypt-Israel:
Saudi Arabia: We now expect Saudi Arabia to run
up oil revenues of more than $17 billion in the second
half of 1974, more than double the revenues of the
first half and ten times the value of expected im-
ports. The Saudis will accumulate a current account
surplus of more than $15 billion in the second half,
compared with nearly. $6 billion in the first. Saudi
investment in the US--mainly in the form of US gov-
ernment securities, bank deposits, and equity shares--
was six times as great at the end of the third quarter
as at the end of the second quarter. Growing concern
over the ability of the Eurodollar market to absorb
additional petrodollars will stimulate an even greater
flow into the US during the fourth quarter.
Arab Aid: Arab oil-producing countries have
started to disburse low-cost aid under an "Arab Fund
for Africa" that was set up in January to assist
African countries in meeting higher oil costs. The
fund has $200 million worth of capital. Uganda, the
first recipient, recently was given a $5.65-million
credit, about half of its proposed allocation. Tan-
zania and Liberia have signed agreements to begin
drawing on their shares of the fund. African leaders
complain that the fund has been too slow in getting
under way and is too small. An "Arab Bank for Agri-
cultural and Industrial Development in Africa," a
companion institution with about the same capital as
the fund, is still being formed.
Norway: Norway will not seek full membership in
the emergency oil-sharing program developed by the
12-nation Energy Coordinating Group. Instead, it will
seek associate status in hopes of avoiding a national
debate on the issue while maintaining solidarity with
the West. Norway's position as a potential energy
exporter had threatened to turn the issue of energy
sharing into a divisive dispute similar to that over
EC membership in 1972. Foreign Minister Frydenlund
is expected to announce Norway's final decision on
the question in a speech before parliament on November
1.
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USSR:
USSR - South Yemen: The Soviets may have in-
creased their military commitment to South Yemen
as a way of shoring up Moscow's position there.
Israel: Civilian construction has fallen sharply
in Israel since summer, when the government introduced
new austerity measures to slow inflation and redress
the country's trade imbalance Military and essential
civilian construction, such as immigrant housing and
development of new areas, however, is proceeding
apace. Work at almost all other public construction
projects has stopped, and a government committee will
determine which projects will be allowed to continue.
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Top Secret
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