THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 20 OCTOBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992928
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 20, 1971

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/18 : CIA-RDP79T00936A0-10000180001-6
The President's Daily Brief
(
20 October 1971
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/18 : CIA-RDP79T00936A010000180001-6
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
20 October 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
India
(Page 1)
The Soviets reaffirm their support for apolitical
settlement between India and Pakistan but put the
onus for preventing armed conflict on the West-Pak-
istanis. (Page 2)
New evidence strengthens the likelihood that the un-
settled leadership situation in Peking stems from a
controversy over heir-designate Lin Piao's political
position. (Page 3)
In Laos, an irregular task force engaged in clearing
operations on the Bolovens Plateau remains stalled
by determined North Vietnamese resistance. (Page 4)
At least some of the Soviet naval units in the mid-
Atlantic may be heading back toward the USSR.
(Page 5)
!Soviets/
(Page 5)
The Turks have admitted that opium planting during
the 1971-72 season could result in a significant
increase over this year's bumper crop. (Page 6)
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INDIA-PAKISTAN
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USSR-INDIA-PAKISTAN
Foreign Minister Gromyko told Ambassador Beam
on Monday that the USSR would continue working for
a political settlement between India and Pakistan.
He expressed pessimism, however, that President Yahya
would make the hard decisions necessary for such a
settlement. In contrast, he exhibited confidence
that the Indians "could be relied on to act respon-
sibly." Gromyko said that President Podgorny had
stressed the danger of a military conflict to both
Yahya and Indian President Gin i during their recent
stay in Iran.
There was no indication from Gromyko that
Podgorny had offered to mediate, and:pre-
sumably his remarks were made after he had
received Podgorny 's report on his talks.
Gromyko's discussion with Beam reflected the
USSR's commitment to India to press for the release
and return to political activity of East Pakistani
leader Mujibur Rahman and the safe return of Paki-
stani refugees. He was lukewarm about the idea of
mutual troop withdrawals from the Indo-Pakistani
borders, saying it would not end the situation.
When Beam stated that the US had proposed to India
a cessation of cross-border guerrilla activities,
Gromyko implied that the Soviets viewed such activ-
ity as justified on the part of the Mukti Bahini,
who were merely defending hearth and home against
a "great terror."
The Soviet position seems designed to in-
crease Western pressure on Yahya. Moscow's
support for India reduces its leverage in
Pakistan, and to a certain extent the USSR
must depend on the West to exert influence
in Islamabad. As for India, we doubt that
the Soviets are as confident of New Delhi's
peaceful intentions as they assert.
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COMMUNIST CHINA
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I /a con-
troversy over heir-designate Lin Piao's political
position may be at the root of the unsettled lead-
ership situation in Peking,-
--The latest issue of China Pictorial--which
features Mao Tse-tung and Lin Piao together
on its front cover is unavailable in the cap-
ital.
--The display at Peking airport of the re-
cently published set of colored photographs
of Mao does not include those showing him with
Lin, although the full set is on display at-
several other locations in the capital.
--The guidance provided by the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs protocol department.concern-
ing toasts addressed to Chinese leaders ata
recent Romanian banquet in Peking omitted any
reference to Lin,
Similar guidance apparently was also
provided a visiting Turkish delegation
and appears to follow a decision taken
approximately two weeks ago to halt the
customary New. China News Agency report-
ing of toasts to Mao and Lin by foreign
visitors.
These alterations in Peking's hagiology,
together with the absence of incantations
to Lin's political rectitude in domestic
propaganda oV'er the past two weeks, point
to an effort to,downplay,-Lin that goes
beyond what would be required if his
problem were purely physical.
The general standdown of Chinese military
aircraft, first -noted on 13 September, is con-
tinuing. Defensive-patrols have been conducted
in the Taiwan Strait area over the past two days,
and flights of fighters from three air trainina-
schools were reported
No resumption or normal
levels of activity-from operational fighter and
bomber bases has been noted, however, and mili-
tary transport flights have remained at extremely
low levels.
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92 10
233 .f923
Saravane
162
23
locking positions
Ban Phak
Kout
23
an
Thateng
Pakson 232
Ban Houe
Kong
16
BOLOVENS
Champassa
PLATEAU
P iafay
ttOpe
16
KON
IS LN
Siem Pan
552004 10-71 CIA
20 30M
10 20 30 Kilometers
? Government-held location
? Communist-held location
?
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LAOS
A four-battalion irregular task force engaged
in clearing operations on the Bolovens Plateau re-
mains stalled by determined North Vietnamese resist-
ance on Route 23 some four miles west of Paksong.
Government commanders and US observers believe that
the Communists are prepared for a stiff defense of
their positions.
In Paksong town, a Lao-Army task force consist-
ing of three army battalions is continuing its ef7.
forts to. improve its defensive-positions_ Manpower
shortages, however, are-limiting the ability, of .the.
task force to patrol aggressively and are creating
morale problems
Paksong town will remain vulnerable to
any determined North Vietnamese assault
as long as.Route 23 remains blocked. The
Communists' tenacious defense and their
recent introduction of heavy machine guns
into the Paksong area suggest that they
will try to retake the town in the near
future. Intercepts from elements of' the
9th NVA Regiment--the principal Communist
unit-near Paksong-indicate that some 410
new troops are expected soon.. This is
the first clear evidence' that unit-size
replacement groups are being sent to make
up the substantial losses we'believe the
regiment suffered during the three months
of- fighting in the area, The Communists
had earlier shifted elements of three corn-
bat battalions from other areas of-the
Bolovens Plateau closer to Paksong.
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NOTES
USSR-Cuba: At least some of the Soviet.naval
units in the mid-Atlantic may be heading back to-fl USSR. Two destroyers and the oiler havefl
been on a northeasterly course for the past day or_
so. The cruiser, the third destroyer, and the tanker
appear to be lingering between the US east coast and
the Azores, TheE-II submarine is also in.-the mid-
Atlantic, but its ?resent
not be confirmed.
Two
F-class diesel attack submarines were also spotted
on the surface some 250 miles west of the tanker
about dusk yesterday.
USSRV
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(continued)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Turkey: Foreign Minister Olcay has admitted
that opium planting during the 1971-72 season, the
last year in which it will be legal, could result
in a significant increase over this year's bumper
crop. Olcay said he was concerned that this might
affect relations with the United States and promised
Ambassador Handley that he would take up the matter
with Prime Minister Erim. Licenses already granted
to plant poppies next year have reached 100,000 and
50,000 more will be handed out shortly. This will
represent a two-thirds increase over 1970-71. At
the same time, the 1971 illicit opium crop is esti-
mated to be well over the 40 metric tons needed an-
nually to meet the demand of the US heroin market.
Illegal stocks held in private Turkish hands after
two bumper years would be adequate to supply the US
market for several years beyond 1972, giving opium
traffickers more than enough time to arrange alter-
native sources of supply.
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Top Secret
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