THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 7 DECEMBER 1974

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007888
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 7, 1974

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The President's Daily Brief
December 7, 1974
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of ED. 11652
exemption category 5 B( I ),(2),(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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December 7, 1974
USSR
Table Of Contents
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Egypt:
Cyprus:
(Page 2)
(Page 3)
Makarios returned .oday:
Cambodia: PrimeMinister plans to use resignation
threat as. tactic to gain more authority Over
armed forces. (Page 4),
Australia: Government's economic, political prob-
lems grow. , (Page 5)
Not: ? Brazil (Page 6)
Annex: USSR.- Middle East
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EGYPT
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CYPRUS
? Archbishop Makarios returned to Cy-
prus this morning after a five-month ex-
? ile. He is well aware of the emotions
his return will arouse and will try to
avoid any action that could kill his
chances of again becoming leader of all
Cypriots. He may not, however, be able
to control emotional outbursts from within
his own Greek Cypriot community; his sup-
? porters and opponents are now more sharply
divided than when he fled the island last
July.
Most observers expect some violence, particu-
larly from people who lost friends and relatives
in the bloody aftermath of the coup that toppled
Makarios' regime-. The first violence could well
occur at a mass rally at noon today in Nicosia,
which Makarios is scheduled to address.
Makarios has already sought to undercut the
chances for Violence by calling for unity and rec-
onciliation among Greek Cypriots; he says he has
"forgiven" those who sought his overthrow.
Makarios returns with significant assets. He
still enjoys the support of a majority of Greek
Cypriots, will control the church and its wealth
as well as the state bureaucracy, and has the pub-
lic if not the private blessing of the government
in Athens.- His opponents on the right and center-
right are divided and politically weak.
Ultimately, Makarios' political future depends
on his ability to wrest concessions from the Turks
and Turkish Cypriots. When Makarios fled the is-
land last July, Cyprus was relatively prosperous.
and dominated by ,its well-to-do Greek Cypriot ma-
jority. Now., the island's economy is in ruins and
approximately 200,000 Greek Cypriots are dispossesed.
Many of them expect a miracle from Makarios. If he
fails to make progress, their Support for him will
dwindle rapidly and serious disorders might ensue.
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CAMBODIA
Prime Minister Long Boret re-
portedly plans to submit his resig-
nation soon as a roundabout way of
trying to increase his authority
over the armed forces.
Long Boret will agree to remain in office only if
President Lon Nol appoints Cambodian Armed Forces
Commander in Chief Sosthene Fernandez to the addi-
tional post of defense minister. Despite his poor
relations with Fernandez, Boret hopes that bringing
him into the cabinet as defense minister would as-
sure some degree of civilian influence over the
army. He believes this necessary if he is to have
any success in tackling the problems of economic
deterioration and corruption.
Long Boret probably is counting on the US em-
bassy to weigh in with Lon Nol should a showdown
develop over his resignation. He is likely to de-
lay action on the matter until Ambassador Dean re-
turns from consultations in Honolulu.
Fernandez' inclusion in the cabinet would not
necessarily result in a significant increase in
civilian authority over military affairs. Military
commanders would probably continue to take orders
directly from Lon Nol should Fernandez be appointed
defense minister.
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AUSTRALIA
The country's economic downturn,
probably the steepest among the smaller
OECD countries, has worsened consider-
ably since midyear, and a political
scandal has now added to the woes of
Prime Minister Whitlam and his Labor
Party.
Real GNP, after falling at a 5.3-percent annual
rate in the second quarter, declined at a 12-percent
annual rate in the third, and unemployment has risen
sharply. Last year, the Australian economy grew by
4 percent.
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NOTE
? Brazil: Top Brazilian officials are trumpeting
an oil find off the coast of Rio de Janeiro State,
The mews has already triggered a rise in stock mar-
ket prices in Brazil. The finance minister has
claimed that the find could make Brazil nearly self-
sufficient in oil by 1980; the.energy minister has
also taken a very optimistic line, despite a call
for caution by the head of the state petroleum
enterprise. The actual extent of the Oil discovery
will not be known for Some time; government leaders
.seem to be using the news to offset recent political
and economic setbacks
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USSR - MIDDLE EAST
Moscow responded to the October
Arab-Tsraeli war with a massive re-
supply effort, re-equipping Arab coun-
tries with armored equipment, anti-
tank weapons, SAMs, and jet fighters.
What follows is an assessment of the
impact of that resupply on Arab re-
cipients.
Syria
Syria has been the principal beneficiary. So-
viet arms delivered so far this year--worth more
than $400 million--were ordered under agreements
concluded during the October 1973 war and during
President Asad's visit to Moscow last April.
As a result of Soviet deliveries,
Syria's ground forces are now better equipped than
they were at the beginning of hostilities in October
1973. While the army is capable of only limited
offensive action against Israel, it could put up
effective resistance to an Israeli attack.
The Syrian air force, with over 450 combat air-
craft, is now the largest fighter force in the Mid-
dle East. The Syrians, however, lack enough quali-
fied pilots and well-trained technicians. The air
force could not prevent deep penetration raids by
the Israelis, nor could it provide adequate ground
support for Syrian ground forces.
Syrian air defenses have improved since October
of last year. The Syrians have seven additional
surface-to-air missile batteries
and may be forming
still more.
While Moscow will remain its major source of
arms, Syria has also discussed arms purchases with
the UK, France, and West Germany.
(continued)
Al
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Egypt
Moscow halted arms deliveries to Egypt this
year in April because of deteriorating relations
between the two countries. Seaborne deliveries re-
sumed in August, but apparently no major equipment
has arrived.
The Soviets are holding out the prospect of
significant new deliveries in connection with next
month's visit by Brezhnev to Cairo. Moscow may
deliver some MIG-23 aircraft ordered by Egypt prior
to the October 1973 war.
The Egyptians have also been shopping for arms
elsewhere, and Arab oil producers have taken steps
to encourage them to shift away from Soviet weapons.
Saudi Arabia has ordered 36 Mirage fighters for
Cairo--six have already been delivered
The British recently concluded an agreement
that will enable Cairo to assemble and eventually
manufacture helicopters for military use. The
Egyptians are already receiving British Sea King
helicopters ordered last year and paid for by Saudi
Arabia.
In the short run, Sadat will have to depend
primarily on Moscow for military equipment. Quite
aside from possible political complications, neither
France nor the UK maintains large reserve stocks of
such equipment. The negotiation of long-term con-
tracts with realistic lead times--one to two years--
would be required before either country could supply
Egypt with large quantities of major equipment.
Despite the slowdown in Soviet deliveries,
Egypt's ground forces have the materiel to launch
an attack on the same scale as the October 1973
offensive. Egypt's air force losses have not been
fully replaced, but the air force's contribution to
the war effort was minor.
More important, Egypt has only a minimal sup-
ply of surface-to-air missiles. It now has some 15
more SAM firing batteries than in October 1973, but
probably fewer missiles. Israeli air attacks could
quickly draw down stocks of those missiles, forcing
Cairo to appeal urgently for Soviet aerial resupply,
as it did during the October war.
(continued)
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Libya
The Libyans concluded a major arms agreement
worth several hundred million dollars with Moscow
last May. Although the scope of the accord has not
been fully confirmed, it is apparently the largest
ever between the two countries.
Key items in the package are said to include
MIG-23 jet fighters, surface-to-air missile systems,
T-62 tanks, and possibly even TU-22 medium bombers
and a few submarines.
The Libyans nonetheless do not want to rely
. solely on the Soviets. Agreements with the West
during the first half of this year were worth about
$300 million and included purchases from France of
. 30 Mirage F-is and six missile-armed patrol boats.
Between 1970 and. 1973 Tripoli paid almost $475 mil-
lion for military equipment from the US and Western
Europe, compared with about $150 million from com-
munist sources.
The. Libyans have neither the trained manpower
nor the logistical support to operate and maintain
most of the equipment they are buying, and they
will need long-term assistance from both the So-
Viets and Western suppliers.
Iraq
The Iraqis have received this year some of the
USSR's most sophisticated weapons, including guided-
missile patrol boats, two squadrons of MIG-23 jet
fighters, and tactical surface-to-surface rockets.
In addition, East European countries have agreed
to supply some $100 million worth of ammunition
and support equipment.
Moscow has so far put off Iraqi requests for
a new arms accord, but high-level talks planned
for the near future may result in new Soviet commit-
ments.
Meanwhile, Iraq has purchased almost $300 mil-
lion in arms from West European countries and Yugo-
slavia this year. The Iraqis have also been trying
to acquire British-built Hawker-Hunter jet aircraft
from other Arab countries, presumably for use
against the Kurds.
Despite the military aid it is receiving from
the USSR and elsewhere, Iraq's capability to par-
ticipate in an Arab-Israeli war is less now than
it was a year ago. About 80 percent of its ground
forces are tied down fighting the Kurds in the
northern part of the country, and it is unlikely
that Baghdad could free more than a token force
anytime soon.
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