THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 16 DECEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466924
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: December 16, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
December 16, 1976
2
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Exempt from pneral
declassification scheduk of E 0 11652
exempUon category 5B( 1).(2).(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
December 16, 1976
Table of Contents
Jamaica: Prime Minister Manley's landslide victory in the gen-
eral election yesterday may encourage him to accelerate
efforts to create a one-party state. (Page 1)
Cuba-USSR: Cuba's second-ranking official, Raul Castro, is on
his third visit of the year to the USSR. Soviet arms de-
liveries to Cuba have increased by about one third over
the past year. (Page 1)
Zaire: President Mobutu, watching Rhodesian developments with
increasing concern
(Page 2)
Notes: OPEC; Egypt; Israel-UK; EC; Somalia-Kenya-Ethiopia
(Pages 4, 5, and 6)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
JAMAICA: Prime Minis-
ter Manley 's landslide
victory in the general
election yesterday may
encourage him to ac-
celerate efforts to
create a one-party
state.
Manley has indicated a
willingness to take a
fresh Zook at relations
with the US.
CUBA-USSR: Cuba's
second-ranking offi-
cial, Raul Castro, is
on his third visit of
the year to the USSR.
He first will have to neutralize
the media and increase his control
of the security forces. During
the campaign, Manley appointed a
sympathizer to head the special
election police force in key dis-
tricts, and he attempted to force
the press to submit to some cen-
sorship.
We expect Manley will continue to
pursue close ties with Cuba. Re-
lations between the two countries
could be further strengthened by
reinstatement of the visit Fidel
Castro had been scheduled to make
last May.
Any sustained improvement in re-
lations, however, is likely to
depend on a commitment from the
US to provide substantial assist-
ance in budget and balance-of-pay-
ments support. We see little like-
lihood that Manley will alter his
relatively prudent attitude toward
the major US aluminum companies.
Discussions presumably will touch
on future policy in southern Af-
rica, with Castro reassuring the
Soviets that Cuban moves will not
prove embarrassing to the USSR.
The presence of Carlos Rafael Rod-
riguez, Cuba's principal negotia-
tor with the Soviets and the
number-three man in the Cuban
hierarchy, suggests that a request
for additional Soviet economic
assistance is high on Castro's
agenda.
1
--continued
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Malabo
;12
(
Equatoral
Guinea --??
^Libreville
Yaounde
Gabon
Cabinda
Brazzaville
African Republic
Bangui
Uganda
Ia
Victoria
*Nairobi
bora
undi
Kinshasa
Tanzania
Oar as
Salaam
*Luanda
Angola
Lobito
Bongo.? Pei"
Kariba
Salishu
Mozambique
Na ml bia
(South-West Africa)
Walvis Bay )
(S. AL)
Atlantic
Ocean
*Windhoek
Rhodesia
Botswana -
Maputo
bane
Swazila
South
Africa
Indian
ocean
0 500 MILES
II 500 KILOMETERS
620795 12 76
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
Soviet arms deliveries
to Cuba have increased
by about one third
over the past year.
ZAIRE: President Mo-
butu is watching Rho-
desian developments
with increasing con-
cern.
The increase can be largely attri-
buted to the Soviet program to re-
place equipment that Cuba sent to
Angola.
We believe Soviet arms deliveries
to Cuba in 1977 will roughly equal
the 1976 level. This would allow
Cuba to replenish equipment al-
ready sent to Angola and to bring
inventories to the levels that
have generally prevailed since
1968.
* * *
Mobutu's open opposition to the
Popular Movement during the Angolan
civil war has left him with little
political influence among other
South African leaders as to the
course of events in Rhodesia. He
is aware that a Rhodesian civil
war or the assumption of power
there by a radical regime would
have serious consequences for
Zaire.
Mobutu's major concern is for safe
and economic transportation routes.
Zaire has always had to rely on
external transportation routes to
carry a large share of its imports
and exports. The disruption of
Angolan facilities--the Benguela
--continued
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Lacking membership in
the club of front-line
presidents that has
played such a prominent
role in seeking a solu-
tion to the Rhodesian
problem, Mobutu is
concentrating on im-
proving his position
with some of his neigh-
bors and with the USSR.
railroad and the port of Lobito--
has forced the Zairian government
to divert a large share of its
traffic to South African ports via
Zambian and Rhodesian rail lines.
In addition, the Zairian copper
belt purchases coke, coal, and
corn worth $37 million from Rho-
desia annually.
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Nigerian Foreign Minister Garba is
tentatively scheduled to visit Kin-
shasa this month, and the Zairian
commerce minister is in Moscow to
initial several commercial and
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cultural accords.
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3
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--continued
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The first day of the
conference of the Organ-
ization of Petroleum Ex-
porting Countries con-
cluded with no apparent
substantive progress on
the highly contentious
oil price issue.
Egypt's
Israel recently took
delivery of the first
of three 500-ton small
attack submarines from
the UK.
NOTES
Iraqi Oil Minister Karim said
after the meeting that the price
issue is not likely to be resolved
until Friday at the earliest.
Saudi Oil Minister Yamani's pre-
conference statement, calling for
a further six-month price freeze,
evoked a negative response among
many OPEC representatives. The
outcome of the price debates re-
mains uncertain.
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Fahmi announced yesterday that he
had invited Waldheim to visit the
Middle East in January. The Egyp-
tians want the onus for any delay
in the conference to be on Israel
should Waldheim's efforts fail.
Egypt sponsored a UN General Assem-
bly resolution last weekend call-
ing for the convocation of the
conference no later than the end
of March.
The other two submarines appar-
ently are scheduled for delivery
in mid-1977. Israel is consider-
ing buying additional submarines
after evaluating the performance
of the first three.
The new submarines probably will
be used in the Mediterranean for
coastal defense
--continued
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
EC foreign ministers
meeting this week in
Brussels approved
tough measures sharply
reducing the catch
third-country fisher-
men will be allowed to
take in EC waters next
year.
The Community will establish a
200-nautical mile fishing zone in
the North Atlantic and North Sea
on January 1. Those states that
have not negotiated a reciprocal
fishing agreement with the Com-
munity--the USSR, Poland, East
Germany, Spain, Portugal, Sweden,
and Finland--will be allowed to
continue fishing EC waters for
three months, but at substantially
reduced levels. Bulgaria and Ro-
mania, which only recently began
to fish in EC waters, will be ex-
cluded totally on January 1.
States that desire to continue
fishing within the EC's 200-nauti-
cal mile zone after April 1 must
negotiate new agreements with the
EC Commission.
The Soviets and the East Europeans
will be most seriously affected
by the EC measures; the Soviet
catch would be reduced by almost
60 percent under the new regula-
tions. The EC is prepared to ne-
gotiate an agreement that would
allow the Soviets an annual catch
of about 60,000 tons--the amount
EC trawlers now take in the Ba-
rents Sea. The Soviets and the
East Europeans, however, refuse
to recognize the EC's authority
to negotiate for the Nine.
--continued
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The Horn of Africa
KHARTOUM
GANDA
"-Lake
Kyoga
Lake
_.--
SAUDI ARABIA ----- gMAN
/
.......... \
RED
,,?/
SEA .? -...
--..
P k
FRENCH TERRITOR
Lake
OF THE
Tana AFARS AND ISSAS
ANIS ABABA
ETHIOPIA
\ Lake
Rudolf
KENYA
Victoria ?NAIROBI
o
620794 12 76
TANZANIA
9ll
NORTH
YEMEN 1 9,/ciV
)'SOUTH YEMEN
SANA
./
\sy
oacc/
SOMALIA
INDIAN
OCEAN
0 200 Miles
o 200 Kilometers
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Top Secret
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