THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 25 NOVEMBER 1971

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0005992992
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: November 25, 1971

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The President's Daily Brief
25 November 1971
18
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF
25 November 1971
PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENTS
The India-Pakistan situation is discussed on Page 1.
The Soviet defense budget will remain unchanged for
the second year. in a row but the defense-dominated
science expenditures will rise by more than ten per-
cent. (Page 2)
Fidel Castro is planning a stop-over in Peru and
possibly Ecuador on his way home from Chile. (Page 4)
Soviet SA-6 tactical surface-to-air missile equip-
ment has been observed in the Sino-Soviet border
area for the first time. (Page 5)
The Arab Joint Defense Council meeting on Saturday
will seek to inject a new sense of urgency to inter-
national consideration of the Middle East problem.
(Page 5)
The first of two Soviet Mars probes launched last
May is expected to reach the planet's vicinity on
Sunday. (Page 5)
An agreement between Iran and Sharjah on the status
of.Abu 'Musa Island will be announced on 29 November.
(Page 6)
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IRAN
U.S.S.R
WEST
PAKISTAN
'Kara;
Arabian Sea
JAMMU
AND ,e
KASHMIR
Islamabad* I Srinagar
Lahore.
80 96
CHINA
New Delhi
*
SIKKIM
Bombay.
MALDIVE.
ISLANDS
INDIA
adras
.Benares
Calculta.
EAST
PAKISTAN
Dacca'
0
4).1(\e,c
Bay of Bengal
gong
BURMA
400 M iles
16
Sr .ar ?
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
INDIA-PAKISTAN
Indian troops are being
used in East Pakistan, but the extent of their em-
ployment is difficult to gauge from day to day. The
Indians are now admitting publicly that their tanks
entered East Pakistan last Sunday in "self-defense."
Indian officials also say that any Indian troops
have permission to cross the border in similar cir-
cumstances.
The Pakistanis are probably exaggerating
the current level of the clashes in the
hope of getting early international action
to halt the fighting.
India's political stance and military pol-
icy strongly suggest that Mrs. Gandhi is
prepared to keep the pressure on. This
leaves Yahya with the choice of making
some substantial political concession,
doggedly continuing an unpromising battle
in the East, or taking on superior Indian
forces in the West. He appears to be
hoping for the great powers to save the
situation.
Despite India's claim that the Pakistanis
shelled across the cease-fire line in Kashmir, the
western border remains fairly quiet. President
Yahya's call-up of the Pakistani reserves is little
more than an effort to dramatize the situation,
since Pakistan has only a rudimentary reserve system.
1
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USSR
Finance Minister Garbuzov reported to Wednes-
day's Supreme Soviet session that the planned Soviet
defense budget of 17.9 billion rubles will remain
unchanged for the second year in a row.
The announcement of a stable defense budget
is presumably dictated by Moscow's desire
to project an image of moderation, both at
home and abroad. The published figure,
however, excludes most of the funds for
military research and development and mili-
tary space, which are the most rapidly
growing elements in the Soviet defense
effort. This is largely financed under
the heading of science expenditures. Total
science allocations are slated to increase
from 13 billion rubles planned for 1971 to
14.8 billion rubles in 1972, a rise of over
ten percent.
The trend of the announced figures is con-
sistent with the trend of USIB intelli-
gence estimates constructed from observa-
tion of Soviet military programs and
forces. These estimates project a total
increase of about three percent over 1971.
Most of this increase is to go to expanded
research and development as well as space
programs. In cost terms, these estimates
project total Soviet defense expenditures
in 1972 (including R&D and military space)
at about 23 billion rubles (the equivalent
of about $66 billion if measured in US
costs).
Kosygin's presentation of the 1971-75 plan
goals was only marginally different from the program
presented to the 24th Party Congress last spring.
In line with the leadership's current pol-
icy of doing more for the consumer, the
output of consumer goods is now planned
to increase by 49 percent compared with
the 44-48 percent projected in April.
In an uncharacteristic Khrushchevian moment,
Kosygin claimed that by 1975 Soviet industrial and
agricultural output will exceed present US industrial
and agricultural output.
(continued)
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
USIB intelligence estimates indicate, how-
ever, that the Soviets will fall about
10-15 percent short of current US production
in these sectors in 1975, even if five-year
plan goals are achieved.
Kosygin also announced that the 1971 grain har-
vest would total about 180 million tons, short of
last year's record of over 186 million tons.
3
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CUBA-PERU-ECUADOR
The Peruvian foreign minister announced on 22
November. that Fidel Castro will stop in Lima on his
way home and meet with President Velasco Alvarado.
He also announced that Peru would soon propose an
OAS resolution abolishing the sanctions imposed on
diplomatic and commercial ties with Cuba.
Castro's visit to Chile, followed by brief
stops in Peru and Ecuador, will certainly
enhance his international image. In prac-
tical terms, his journey could be a long
step toward bringing about the abandonment
of the 1964 OAS resolution that excluded
Cuba from the hemispheric community and
imposed economic sanctions.
4
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Soviet SA-6 Equipment Seen Near Chinese Border
----L4-7,-tfi
/-
Jp:),
'cnita
j) (
simorsk )14,
1--
'Khabarovsk.
)i
I. ir/7) rff
f*
-0`e-
Iman
.11
Choybalsan
MONGOLIA
Saynshand
Ha kid
Erh-lien
ng-ch'uu
Hu-ho-hao t'e
-fi
NORTH
KOCEA
P'yongyang
'
Dairen
1. t
1
IOC
Range
Altitude
Warhead
Guidance
Length
V ri7u...
'CFA of JAPAN
TOP SECRET RUFF
0 200
Miles
1970
10 - 15 nm
300 - 40,000 ft
140 lbs HE
command
(terminal homing)
19 ft
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NOTES
USSR: Satellite photography shows equipment
for the SA-6 tactical surface-to-air missile system
at the Dauriya army barracks near the USSR-China-.
Mongolia border. This is the first known deployment
of the SA-6 east of the Urals and in the Sino-Soviet
border area. SA-6 equipment had earlier been identi-
fied at nine locations in the western USSR. The
Soviets have also placed the SA-6 around the Aswan
airfield in Egypt. First deployed in mid-1970, the
SA-6 provides Soviet ground forces with a mobile
low-altitude air defense system.
Arab States: Meeting in Cairo on Saturday,.mem7
bers of the Arab Joint Defense Council will seek to
inject a new sense of urgency to international con-
sideration of the Middle East problem, particularly
the UN General Assembly debate which begins next
week. Pointing up the propagandistic flavor of the
conference, Egyptian chief of staff Shazili told a
preparatory meeting on Wednesday that the failure
of previous political initiatives left the Arabs
with no recourse but military action. Aside from
this, the meeting is the latest of a series hosted
by President Sadat to try to coordinate political,
economic, and military strategy against Israel. It
remains doubtful, however, that the Arab defense min-
isters can agree on a plan of joint military action,
even on a contingency basis.
USSR: The first of two Mars probes launched
last May is expected to reach the vicinity of the
planet on Sunday. The second is about five days be-
hind, Although we have no evidence on the specific
missions of these unmanned space vehicles,.either
one could orbit or land.' Official Soviet statements
have said only that the probes are intended to carry
out "comprehensive research of Mars ? and the space
near it." If their mission is accomplished, these
will be the first, successes in the 11-year history
of the Soviet Mars program.
(continued)
5
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Territorial Disputes in the Persian Gulf Area
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Ahvaz
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KUWAIT
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Persian Gulf Gulf islands in dispute
between'Iran and the Trucial States
The Tunbs: controlled by Ras al Khaimah,
claimed by Iran
Abu Musa: controlled by Sharjah,
claimed by Iran
Hofuf
SAUDI
PERSIAN
Ras Tanura
BAHRAIN
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QATAR
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ARABIA
MILES
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Abu Musa
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Umm al Qaiwain
Ajman
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STATES '??
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Abu Dhabi
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ABU DHABI
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Iran - Persian Gulf: The British have told us
that an agreement between Iran and Sharjah on the
status of Abu Musa Island will be announced on 29
November. Iran is expected to occupy a part of Abu.
Musa as well as the two Tunbs the following day.
The latter two islands have been disputed_by Iran
and Ras al Khaimah and.are not included in the pres-
ent agreement, but the Sheik of Ras al Khaimah has
no way to resist and is not expected to protest
seriously. As we reported in The President's Daily
Brief of 19 November, we still expect reaction in
the rest of the Arab world to be restricted to prop-
aganda.
6
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t
Top Secret
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