THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 28 OCTOBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466883
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: October 28, 1976

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The President's Daily Brief
October 28, 1976
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Exempt from general
declanificatMn schedule of E 0 11652
exemption category 5B( 11.121.(3)
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
October 28, 1976
Table of Contents
USSR-China-US: The Soviets apparently were surprised by Secre-
tary Kissinger's recent statements warning the USSR not to
threaten China. (Page 1)
USSR: Satellite photography of Severodvinsk shipyard shows that
the Soviets have produced a new variant of the Delta series
of ballistic missile submarines to accommodate the new
SS-NX-18 missile. (Page 1)
USSR: The bumper grain harvest announced by General Secretary
Brezhnev on Monday permits the USSR the options of curtail-
ing grain purchases, exporting some grain to the West, and
shipping more to traditional communist clients. (Page 3)
Lebanon:
(Page 3)
Egypt: Although the outcome of Egypt's first parliamentary elec-
tion will not reflect the full extent of current discontent
with the government, the new People's Assembly may prove to
be less malleable than its predecessors. (Page 5)
Notes: China; USSR; USSR; Yugoslavia (Pages 7 and 8)
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USSR-CHINA-US: The So-
viets apparently were
surprised by Secretary
Kissinger's recent
statements warning the
USSR not to threaten
China.
USSR: Satellite photo-
graphy of Severodvinsk
shipyard shows that the
Soviets have produced
a new variant of the
Delta series of ballis-
tic missile submarines
to accommodate the new
SS-NX-18 missile:
The Secretary's remarks undercut
the public image Moscow is trying
to build of the USSR's willingness
to make a fresh start in its deal-
ings with the Chinese.
Moscow's reaction suggests that
the Soviets are anxious to limit
additional use by the US of the
officially authorized article by
Victor Louis that appeared in
France Soir last week. The article
warned the Chinese that they had
one month to respond to Soviet
overtures for better relations.
Yesterday Pravda carried an author-
itative piece denying that Moscow
entertains any hostile intentions
toward China. It cited Brezhnev's
statement at the plenum on Monday,
in which he offered to improve re-
lations with China, as proof of
Soviet good faith.
Pravda said that the Secretary's
motive was to impress Peking and
to spoil or strain Sino-Soviet re-
lations. It also accused the Sec-
retary of trying to score domestic
political points. Pravda stated
that the tactic would probably not
work, but it admonished "those who
resort to political fabrications
in Washington."
* * *
We had believed earlier there would
be no external difference between
submarines carrying the SS-N-8 mis-
sile and those intended to carry
the newer SS-NX-18.
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We know that the four D-II units
produced last year and now opera-
tional carry the SS-N-8. The
photography shows that the height
of the missile bay areas of the
four D-class submarines launched
at Severodvinsk this year has been
increased by some three to six
feet beyond that of the four D-II
units produced in 1975.
The increase in the height of the
missile bay, therefore, apparently
is necessary to accommodate the
SS-NX-18 missile system. This
suggests that all D-I submarines
and the four D-II units launched
in 1975 will have to undergo exten-
sive modification if the Soviets
decide to install SS-NX-18 mis-
siles in them.
The SS-NX-18 is the first Soviet
submarine-launched ballistic mis-
sile with MIRVs, although it is
also being tested with a single
re-entry vehicle. We estimate
its maximum range to be about
4,000 nautical miles. The SS-NX-18
could be operational within 18
months.
* * *
--continued
/
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USSR: The bumper grain
harvest announced by
General Secretary Brezh-
nev on Monday permits
the USSR the options of
curtailing grain pur-
chases, exporting some
grain to the West, and
shipping more to tradi-
tional communist cli-
ents. The Soviet out-
lay of hard currency to
pay for agricultural
imports can also be re-
duced.
LEBANON:
Brezhnev's statement that this
year's grain crop would "either
very closely approach the figures
of the record year 1973, or even
surpass it" suggests that the to-
tal yield will be 222 million tons
or more. Such a harvest would
permit the rebuilding of livestock
herds and grain reserves, both of
which had been depleted by two
years of below-normal production.
The Soviet Union(
/has purchased from the US
4 million tons of corn and 2.65
million tons of wheat.
Despite the good grain crop, total
farm output is likely to rise by
only about 1.5 percent this year
because of the sharp decline in
livestock production. Agricul-
tural growth is far from the 8.5-
percent rebound planned this year
and will continue to depress the
growth of gross national product.
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* * *
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EGYPT: Egypt today holds
its first parliamentary
election in which candi-
dates are legally per-
mitted to run on opposi-
tion platforms. AZ-
though the outcome will
not reflect the full ex-
tent of current discon-
tent with the govern-
ment, the new People's
Assembly may prove to
be less malleable than
its predecessors.
Approximately 1,600 candidates are
vying for the 350 People's Assem-
bly seats. The candidates are
running under a variety of banners
in a carefully regulated experi-
ment with what passes for a multi-
party system.
The Arab Socialist Union remains
Egypt's only legal political party,
but in an effort to provide a
safety valve for the controlled
expression of opposition viewpoints,
President Sadat early this year
permitted the formation of three
ASU subdivisions--a leftist, a
rightist, and a centrist organiza-
tion, the last comprising the ma-
jority of the ASU and representing
the pro-government viewpoint.
To a considerable extent, the left-
ist and rightist groups do repre-
sent opposition viewpoints. Both
groups, however, must operate
within the constraints of the ASU's
basic pro-government policies, and
both are dependent on the ASU's
government-controlled apparatus
for campaign facilities.
Largely for this reason, over half
of the candidates have shunned ASU
sponsorship completely to run as
independents. Although the govern-
ment is probably covertly sponsor-
ing many of them, it does not have
a clear picture of the political
leanings of all the independents.
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The government has
avoided direct manipu-
lation of the campaign.
Nevertheless, there
seems little question
that openly pro-govern-
ment candidates will
win a large majority
of the parliamentary
seats.
Government policy undoubtedly will
not be seriously influenced by an
Assembly in which probably no more
than 25 to 30 percent of the dep-
uties will be either in the oppo-
sition or true independents, but
an Assembly constituted along
these lines would not be the rub-
ber stamp its predecessors have
been.
* * *
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Chinese
Soviet Premier Kosygin's
illness evidently pre-
vented him from deliv-
ering the report on the
five-year plan to the
Supreme Soviet yester-
day.
The Soviet Union is con-
structing large amphib-
ious assault ships
which, at 500 feet in
length]
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Kosygin attended the Supreme, So-
viet session, as did all the lead-
ers. The Premier was active dur-
ing the recent visit of Mongolian
leader Tsedenbal, and observers
have noted no visible signs of
illness.
For the first time under the pres-
ent leadership, the chairman of
the state planning committee made
the report. By passing over First
Deputy Premier Mazurov, the lead-
ership again showed that it was
unwilling to give any public sign
that a younger member may be in
line as a successor to a top post.
Only recently has construction at
Kaliningrad on the Baltic prog-
ressed far enough to permit us to
determine the type of ship being
built. Apparently it will be a
combination tank landing ship and
amphibious transporter dock, a
multiple function concept adopted
by the US during World War II.
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Yugoslavia has resched-
uled a state visit by
French President Gis-
card for early December.
Planning for a visit by
Soviet party leader
Brezhnev is also appar-
ently under way.
The new ship will be able to dis-
charge amphibious vehicles from
both ends and is the first Soviet
ship built with a floodable-well
deck. This deck
can accommodate small am-
phibious craft, hovercraft, or
other vehicles. The assault ship
apparently will have a helicopter
landing platform at the stern but
does not appear to have storage
space for a large force of troop-
carrying helicopters.
The ship is a logical step in the
evolution of Soviet amphibious war-
fare capabilities, which have been
improving steadily since the early
1960s. The Soviets are just ap-
proaching the capability to trans-
port their entire naval infantry
force of 10,000 to 12,000 men.
They are unable to move large
ground force units except by mer-
chant ship.
The Giscard visit was originally
postponed in September apparently
because of Tito's poor health.
Since then, the 84-year-old Yugo-
slav President has made only in-
frequent public appearances and
has received no foreign guests.
The Soviets would like to arrange
a meeting between Tito and Brezh-
nev in conjunction with a trip by
the Soviet leader to neighboring
Romania in late November. Belgrade
will make much of Giscard's visit
as a counter to those who would
see Tito's meeting with Brezhnev
as a Yugoslav "drift" eastward.
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Top Secret
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