THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 18 SEPTEMBER 1976

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006466849
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: September 18, 1976

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/12 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000200060003-1
_
The President's Daily Brief
September 18, 1976
2
Top S e2,5X1
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E 0 11652
exem ption category, 51311
declassified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/12 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000200060003-1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2016/07/12 : CIA-RDP79T00024A000200060003-1
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
September 18, 1976
Table of Contents
China: There are indications that the military establishment is
taking a more active political role, and that key civilian
leaders recognize that it is likely to be a major factor in
any succession struggle. (Page 1)
Lebanon: Syria's last-minute decision not to send Prime Minister
Khulayfawi to the tripartite meeting that convened in Sha-
turah, Lebanon, yesterday has diminished hopes that the
talks will produce a cease-fire. (Page 3)
Libya-Egypt: Overhead photography of late August and early Sep-
tember showed that both Libya and Egypt have strengthened
their ground forces near their border. (Page 4)
Portugal:
(Page 4)
Notes: Panama; Spain-USSR; Cuba-USSR (Pages 6 and 7)
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
CHINA: As China enters
the transition follow-
ing Mao's death, there
are indications that
the military establish-
ment is taking a more
active political role,
and that key civilian
leaders recognize that
it is likely to be a
major factor in any
succession struggle.
The Chairman's death was jointly
announced by the Military Affairs
Commission, the country's leading
military body, the Central Commit-
tee, and the State Council. Mao
had been titular chairman of the
MAC, thereby justifying its inclu-
sion in the announcement. The
prominence accorded this body,
however, could hardly be lost on
the Chinese populace.
Throughout the just-concluded
mourning period and for the first
time since the Lin Piao incident
of late 1971, the People's Libera-
tion Army has enjoyed roughly
equal stature with the top party
and government bodies in Chinese
propaganda and in the treatment
of messages of condolence from
provincial military and civilian
authorities. Peking, moreover,
has passed up few opportunities
to laud the PLA.
Even before Mao's death, there ap-
peared to be a concerted effort to
enhance the PLA's prestige by high-
lighting its role in earthquake re-
lief work. A central directive is-
sued in August singled out the PLA
for praise in this regard.
The more conservative elements in
the Chinese leadership appear to
have seized on the need to rebuild
after the earthquake to tone down
the campaign against Teng Hsiao-
ping. They may well have been be-
hind much of the effort to focus
attention on the PLA, possibly
with the cooperation of Premier
Hua Kuo-feng.
In his speech after the earthquake,
Hua not only called for unity--a
theme which runs counter to the
--continued
1
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
A community of interest
between civilian con-
servati-bes and the army
is likely. There have
been signs for some
time that the PLA is
generally unsympathetic
to the attacks on Teng
and his followers.
thrust of the anti-Teng campaign--
but was also the first to sound a
favorable note on behalf of the
army.
It is probably no coincidence that
as Mao lay dying in August, the
stature of the army increased and
the campaign against Teng further
moderated. At this stage, how-
ever, the military establishment
is likely to be concerned with
protecting its own institutional
interests. To some extent it can
make political gains by playing
off civilian factions against each
other, and for this reason, the
PLA may want to leave some ambigu-
ity in its position.
The military establishment will be
concerned with pending appointments
to key military positions. Mao's
death leaves open the chairmanship
of the MAC. Defense Minister Yeh
Chien-ying, the third-ranking mem-
ber of the party and a leading
"rightist," has probably been in
direct charge of the work of this
body. Despite his reported de-
fense of Teng Hsiao-ping last win-
ter, it would be difficult to deny
the post to him.
The position of PLA chief of staff
has been vacant since Teng's po-
litical demise last April. The
military establishment will be
pushing for the appointment of a
professional military man for the
job.
* * *
--continued
2
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LEBANON: Syria's last-
minute decision not to
send Prime Minister
Khulayfawi to the tri-
partite meeting that
convened in Shaturah,
Lebanon, yesterday has
diminished hopes that
the talks will produce
a cease-fire.
Egyptian President Sadat
broadcast an address
aimed at the Lebanese
people yesterday that
emphasized Egypt's com-
mitment to the unity
and independence of
Lebanon.
Deputy Defense Minister Jamil, a
comparatively low-level represen-
tative, is attending the talks in-
stead. The leftist press in Bei-
rut asserts that Syria's move
proves Damascus is not seriously
interested in a truce.
Although some Palestinians opposed
Yasir Arafat's negotiating with
anyone of lower rank than Khulay-
fawi, Arafat is participating in
the talks along with president-
elect Sarkis and Arab League medi-
ators.
Syria's reason for lowering its
profile at the tripartite confer-
ence is not clear. The Syrians
may want to test Arafat's attitude
before inviting him to talk with
higher level officials.
Although Sadat criticized Syria's
role in Lebanon, his remarks were
intended mainly to highlight
Egypt's recent entry into efforts
to negotiate a settlement and to
show support for Sarkis on the eve
of his visit to Cairo.
Sarkis is likely to ask Sadat to
urge the Palestinians to be more
flexible. He may also broach the
sensitive subject of Egypt's ef-
forts to resupply the Palestinian
and Lebanese leftist militias.
--continued
3
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
LIBYA-EGYPT: Overhead
photography of late Au-
gust and early Septem-
ber shows that both
Libya and Egypt have
strengthened their
ground forces near
their border.
The continued military
activity apparently has
not been accompanied
by significant politi-
cal action by either
Egypt or Libya.
PORTUGAL:
Analysis of photography
indicates that Libya
may be forming a second armored
brigade in the Tobruk area. A
tank battalion also probably has
been moved into defensive positions
some 30 kilometers (18 miles) from
the border with Egypt.
Continuing analysis of the photog-
raphy on the Egyptian side indi-
cates that Cairo has sent an artil-
lery battalion and a company of
armored personnel carriers to the
Sollum area, in addition to the
previously reported tank battalion.
Egyptian warships conducted an-
other naval exercise in the Gulf
of Sollum yesterday, according to
intercepted communications. Over
the past several days a Soviet
frigate and a merchant ship have
joined the tug that the Soviet
navy has been keeping in this area
despite the Egyptian announcement
that the Gulf was closed for 10
days, beginning last Saturday, for
naval maneuvers.
Libya did release three Egyptians
this week who had been held on es-
pionage charges but also resumed
personal attacks on President Sa-
dat in Libyan media.
* * *
4
FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
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*
*
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
The Panamanian govern-
ment has launched an
anti-US propaganda cam-
paign, alleging US in-
volvement in inciting
looting and vandalism
during the recent pro-
tests over price in-
creases.
Spanish Foreign Minis-
ter Oreja(
conferred with\
Soviet officials in
Spain this week on ar-
rangements for a meet-
ing with Soviet Foreign
Minister Gromyko.
(
NOTES
The government is holding several
persons it claims are US service-
men involved in the disturbances.
The US embassy, however, has in-
formation that only one US service-
man was actually arrested on a
protest-related charge.
In addition to diverting attention
from the country's economic diffi-
culties, Panamanian strongman Tor-
rijos also hopes the campaign will
put pressure on the US to renew
canal treaty negotiations on key
issues prior to the US elections--
or at least place the onus for fur-
thPr delays on the US.
There is a growing chance Panama
will formally raise the canal is-
sue at the UN General Assembly.
* * *
The Soviet officials
conveyed Gromyko's acceptance
of Oreja's earlier proposal for a
meeting during the UN General As-
sembly session which begins next
week.
A meeting between the two foreign
ministers could be a move toward
establishment of diplomatic rela-
tions. The Soviet Union reportedly
indicated interest in establishing
diplomatic ties last March.
--continued
6
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The latest satellite
photography over Cuba
shows no apparent change
in the status of the
radar associated with
the Soviet SA-5 surface-
to-air missile system.
The Soviet commercial presence in
Spain has grown steadily since a
trade agreement was signed in 1972.
Four joint Spanish-Soviet compa-
nies are now operating in Spain,
and the Soviet airline recently
inaugurated regular flights to Ma-
drid.
The radar was seen for the first
time at a Soviet sigint 25X1
collection facility near Havana.
We have not yet detected any sig-
nals associated with the radar.
It is the only component of the
SA-5 missile system ever seen out-
side the USSR.
7
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Top Secret
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