THE PRESIDENT'S DAILY BRIEF 28 JANUARY 1975

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: President's Daily Brief 1969-1977
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 0006007927
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: August 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 24, 2016
• Publication Date: January 28, 1975

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The President's Daily Brief
January 28 1975
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Exempt from general
declassification schedule of E.O. 11652
exemption category, 513(11,14(3)
declauified only on approval of
the Director of Central Intelligence
tr,
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FOR THE PRESIDENT ONLY
January 28, 1975
Table of Contents
Portugal: We present the summary of an interagency
intelligence memorandum: Portugal: Recent
Developments and Short Term Prospects. (Page 1)
Portugal: Coalition unity evaporated yesterday.
(Page 2)
Argentina: The foreign minister has announced that
the US Trade Reform Act caused the postponement
of the foreign ministers meeting that was set
for March. (Page 3)
Ethiopia: Army officers are planning a coup, per-
haps as early as next week. (Page 4)
Syria-Israel:
Thailand: The Democrat Party has won the largest
number of seats in the new parliament, but is
far short of a majority in the lower house.
(Page 6)
Notes: Greece-Turkey; Bahrain (Page 7)
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PORTUGAL
We present below the summary of an
interagency intelligence memorandum pro-
duced on January 27 dealing with Portugal:.
Recent Developments and Short Term Pros-
pects.
Evidence is accumulating that growing tensions
of recent days may result in major changes in the
Portuguese leadership, which would have consider-
able impact on future policies. One catalyst is
the approach of constituent assembly elections,
promised by the end of March. Time seems to be
running out for the present coalition government
which, unable to resolve contentious issues in the
pre-election period, is at the breaking point.
More important, officers in the Armed Forces Move-
ment may be about to fall into internecine strife
avoided thus far.
Although we still know relatively little about
the officers of the Movement, the past several weeks
have taught us something about what drives them.
First and foremost all of them fear reaction from
the right and a return to the status quo before the
coup of last April. This largely accounts for their
susceptibility to pressure from the left reflected,
for example, in the recent decision favorable to the
Communists on the unitary labor law. But the moder-
ates also have grounds for fearing the left. These
apprehensions will dissipate very slowly, if at all.
Until they do, the officers in the Movement will
behave as a beleaguered but also divided group.
Events over recent weeks suggest that:
--Those within the Movement who advocate mod-
eration have been increasingly on the defen-
sive.
--Many influential figures in the Movement
have come to the conclusion that the populace
cannot be counted on to choose wisely in free
elections, and that the Movement will have to
remain as the final arbiter for a long time
to come.
--Chances are better than even that, if elec-
tions are permitted this spring, they will be
accompanied by measures by the Movement--with
strong Communist support--to prevent the cen-
ter and right from gaining a significant share
of power.
1
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PORTUGAL
Coalition unity evaporated yesterday
as major party leaders traded accusations.
Foreign Minister Soares, who also heads the
Socialist Party, told a press conference that the
Portuguese Communist Party is anti-democratic. He
said that the unitary labor law was an error which
the working class would correct, and warned that
"extremist solutions" could lead to civil war.
Communist leader Cunhal responded by calling
those who talk of war "fascist reactionary plotters."
He denied that his party was planning a coup and
said that those who agitate about coups are merely
covering their own intentions.
Both the Socialists and Communists are pre-
paring large public rallies in Lisbon on Friday
night. The rallies will be held in close proximity
and at virtually the same time. The potential is
great for violence, which could lead to a declara-
tion of martial law and the canceling of the spring
elections. One minister says there will be.no
clashes because both rallying groups are supposed
to use different routes.
According to an aide of Soares, Prime Minister
Goncalves asked the Communists to hold a demonstra-
tion similar to the Socialist rally in order to have
a pretext for canceling both events.
Rumors are circulating in Lisbon of imminent.
changes in the leadership. Minister_Without Port-
folio Vitor Alves, who opposed the labor law,-is
one of those rumored to be on the way out.
In each of the two past shakeups of the provi-
sional government the complexion of the cabinet has
shifted more to the left. A gradual assumption.of
power by some combination of Communists and radical
leftists seems to be a greater possibility.than.a
sudden coup. The latter would be more likely if
there were a series of events that the left would
regard as fatal to their cause.
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ARGENTINA
Foreign Minister Alberto Vignes
announced yesterday that adoption of
the US Trade Reform Act is responsible
for the postponement of the meeting of
Latin American foreign ministers sched-
uled for March in Buenos Aires.
The move is another blow to the dialogue be-
tween the hemispheric foreign ministers and Secre-
tary Kissinger, but the session would almost cer-
tainly have been rancorous. Vignes cited the tense
atmosphere created by the Trade Reform Act as the
reason for putting off the meeting. He said a new
meeting would not be scheduled "until a solution is
found" for the divisive situation created by the
Trade Reform Act and "until the new dialogue takes
on a meaning which it was supposed to have had at
the outset."
Last Friday, a special session of the OAS
permanent council issued a resolution declaring
that the Trade Reform Act violated commitments the
US had made to developing countries. The resolu-
tion recommended that the issue be discussed at the
next OAS general assembly in April. Several Latin
governments?particularly the Venezuelans--have
expressed strong reservations about conducting the
hemispheric dialogue in foreign ministers' meetings.
Venezuelan President Carlos Andres Perez has argued
strongly that any issue between Latin countries and
the US should be discussed only in the OAS where
"agreements are more binding"--a reflection perhaps
of the suspicion and lack of confidence that char-
acterize current Latin attitudes.
Although reactions of Latin leaders to the
postponement are not yet available they can be ex-
pected to support the Argentine decision as regret-
able but necessary. Venezuela, a vociferous critic
of the Trade Reform Act, will interpret the post-
ponement as a diplomatic triumph for Perez' policy,
and one which further enhances his reputation as a
hemispheric leader.
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ETHIOPIA
Army officers in Addis Ababa report-
edly are planning a coup against the rul-
ing military council. The coup leader,
who opposes the council's leftist poli-
cies, may act as early as next week. He
appears to have a good chance of success.
the leader of the coup
is Colonel Gebre-Yesus Mikael, a brigade commander
who controls key units in Addis Ababa, including
some of the units that protect the council's head-
quarters. These troops are to provide the main
strike force, and Gebre-Yesus reportedly has re-
ceived assurances from officers who command police
and other army units in the capital that their men
will either support the coup or be passive.
Gebre-Yesus expects to receive support from
veterans groups, many of which are armed and could
be of significant help in a coup attempt. Gebre-
Yesus is sounding out important unit commanders in
the provinces, and is making preparations to neu-
tralize air force and paratroop commands near Addis
Ababa, should they try to stop the coup.
The coup leaders believe the council's poli-
cies, including its adoption of socialism and na-
tionalization of businesses, are too radical for
Ethiopia. Gebre-Yesus is particularly concerned
that civil war will break out if the council at-
tempts a radical land reform program. He also
apparently opposes the council's loosening of ties
with the West in favor of improving relations with
communist governments.
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SYRIA?ISRAEL
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THAILAND
The Democrat Party has won the larg-
est number of seats in the new parliament,
but its 72 seats are far short of the 135
needed for a majority in the lower house.
The Democrats will have to enter into a
coalition with at least four other parties
to form a government.
The Democrats, moderate and middle-of-the-road,
have for many years represented the only organized
opposition to military rule. Their strong showing
in the election on Sunday indicates a lack of voter
confidence in the wealthy, conservative parties
backed by the military and business elite. The
support of some conservatives, however, will still
be necessary for the Democrats to form a government.
Fragmentation of the votes, not all of which are in
yet, was greater than anticipated, apparently be-
cause the military did not instruct their troops
to vote en masse for any particular party.
If the Democrats succeed in forming a govern-
ment, their leader, Seni Pramot, will most likely
become prime minister. Such a government would
tend to be more responsive to press, student, and
intellectual clamor for an early withdrawal of US
forces than would a conservative coalition. Even
so, the Democrats are not likely to take any precip-
itous action affecting US interests in the face of
opposition from conservative politicians and the
military.
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NOTES
Greek Prime Minister KaramanZis
proposed yesterday that the potentially
explosive Aegean dispute with Turkey be
taken to the International Court of Jus-
tice.
The Turkish government has not yet responded
officially but the press quotes a military source
as saying that Ankara would back such a proposition.
In the past, Ankara has pointed to earlier Court
decisions to help support its claim to a share of
mineral resources under the Aegean. The Turks may
in any event have some difficulty in implementing
their announced plan to explore for oil in the
Aegean, because the owners of the Norwegian research
ship they had contracted to use have reportedly re-
fused to permit it to sail into disputed waters.
TheIrmak government was reacting hastily when it
announced it would explore in the Aegean, and the
Greek offer might provide a face-saving way out of
the situation.
Bahrain is demanding formal re-
assurance that the US will not use
facilities on the Persian Gulf island
for hostile military action against
any Arab state.
The Bahraini foreign minister has assured the
US ambassador that the government has no intention
of submitting the Middle East force stationing
agreement to the National Assembly for approval,
but that a scheduled debate could bring a "sense
of the assembly" motion criticizing the stationing
agreement. The foreign minister also insisted that
the government needs to be able to demonstrate that
the US presence brings tangible benefits. This,
he said, would require that the annual rent for the
lease agreement be increased to $4 million, a six-
fold rise over the amount agreed to in the accord
of 1971.
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